Latest on Talks to End War in Ukraine; Stocks Rise to Start Week

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0:41That's vanguard.com slash audio. All investing and subject to risk, Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. Donald Trump is rewriting the Washington rulebook and reshaping the global economy. If you're trying to connect the dots behind the headlines, Bloomberg's Trumponomics podcast is here to help. I'm Stephanie Flanders, Head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg. Every week I'll bring you a smart, focused conversation with reporters and experts from Washington, Wall Street and beyond. Listen to new episodes every Wednesday and follow Trumponomics wherever you listen.

1:20Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Lisa Mateo. Here are the top stories we're following today. Lisa, we begin with the latest on efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says a lot of progress has been made in talks with Ukrainian officials in Geneva. The U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to accept a 28-point plan to end Russia's war as a basis for negotiations. President Trump has said Ukraine should take the deal by this Thursday. But Secretary Rubio says that date is not set in stone. The deadline is we want to get this done as soon as possible.

1:59Obviously, you know, we'd love it to be Thursday. We'd love to be, ultimately, the important point today is that we have made substantial progress. We've really moved forward. So I feel very optimistic that we're going to get there in a very reasonable period of time very soon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke alongside Ukraine Chief of Staff Andrei Yermak in Geneva after preparing what they're both calling an updated and refined framework document on peace. Bloomberg's Oliver Crook reports more work may need to be done to get Ukraine on board. There's really been a lot of pushback, particularly from the European side, to basically not give any additional territory than the Russians control right now.

2:33There has been this push from the United States to give the entirety of the Donbass to the Russians, which they do not currently control. That is one of the points that really pushes back. But really, the most sort of relevant point and the most important point for the Ukrainians is around this idea of security guarantees. Bloomberg's Oliver Crook reports Ukraine's looking for protection from the U.S. along the lines of NATO's Article 5 mutual defense clause. It's also rejecting Russia's demand that Ukraine give up on occupied territory in its east. Back in Washington, Nathan, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says President Trump is focused on bringing costs down for Americans.

3:08We believe health care is going to come down. We will see an announcement this coming week on that. And so across the board, prices are starting to come down. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson appeared on NBC's Meet the Press, heard every Sunday right here on Bloomberg Radio. President Trump has urged Republicans to come up with a plan by January 30th to address health insurance premiums that are set to spike when subsidies expire at the end of the year. Politico reports the White House is expected to announce a two-year extension to the subsidies, along with new income caps to qualify for the tax credits and minimum premium payments.

3:44Let's turn to the markets now, Lisa. Futures are mainly higher this morning as we kick off a holiday-shortened trading week. Stocks rallied Friday on optimism the Fed may cut rates next month. Phil Blancato, chief market strategist at OSAIC, is still cautious. Valuations are too pricey and some of the economic data, the unknowns, have put us in this very wobbly market. So I think we're in for a bit more volatility, especially with some of the dates not lining up as to when we're going to get new data and when the next Fed meeting is. So sadly, we're feeling like 2018 again. And for those who don't remember, 2018, December, it was a very difficult month.

4:21That's Osaics' Phil Blancato. The S &P 500 is down 3.5 % in November. Well, despite the recent pullback, Morgan Stanley remains bullish on stocks. Strategist Mike Wilson says near-term weakness offers an opportunity to add long-term exposure in 2026. He says the end of the correction is nearer than its beginning. Wilson notes that despite a 5 % drop in the S &P 500, two-thirds of the largest 1 ,000 stocks by market cap have seen more than 10 % drawdown. Elisa, this Trading Week ahead brings us some key earnings. We get a preview of that from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. We'll be hearing from several more retailers, including Best Buy, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Kohl's.

5:02Those reports come amid broader market concerns about stretched valuations. Cameron Dawson is chief investment officer at New Edge Wealth. At the end of the day, we have an environment where earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 continue to climb higher. So we think as long as we're making new highs in those earnings estimates, it does support stocks to broadly move higher, not without some chop and volatility as we're experiencing now. Also reporting this week, Workday, Dell, HPN, and Zscaler in New York. Charlie Pellett, Bloomberg Radio. All right. Thank you, Charlie. shares of Alibaba rose 5 % in Hong Kong.

5:38Its revamped AI tool QN drew more than 10 million downloads in the week after its relaunch. Analysts say that bodes well for a longer-term effort to build a rival to OpenAI's chat GPT. In Europe, Lisa, shares of BHP Group are little changed this morning. The mining giant has ended its attempt to acquire fellow miner Anglo-American for a second time. Bloomberg Mining and Metals reporter Paul Allen Hunt says the deal would have been complicated. Well, this is it. It was never going to be easy. It certainly wasn't going to be easy last year, and it wasn't going to be easy this time. We don't have a lot of detail, I will say that at this point, but we do know that it was Scrip or shares and cash.

6:20The premium that BHP would have had to have offered to get a real serious recognition from Anglo and have a proper discussion would have been significantly higher. Bloomberg's Paul Allen Hunt reports Anglo-American rejected BHP's latest approach after deciding it was not superior to its planned tie-up with smaller Canadian firm Tech Resources. All right, now to the latest on cryptocurrencies as we begin the new trading week. Right now, checking in with Bitcoin, it's down about 2 % at just above 86 ,000. Now, in president Trump's second term crypto assets, they've transformed his family's wealth.

6:53However, the family, while they're getting a crash course in the wild volatility associated with additional currencies, Bloomberg's Tiwa Adebayo reports. Shares of the president's Bitcoin hoarding social media company are near an all-time low, and the value of a Trump-branded meme coin has fallen by about a quarter since August. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the recent losses are all part of a broader crypto crash that's wiped nearly$1 billion from the first family's fortune since early September. The Trumps own a growing portfolio of crypto ventures, including intricate deals that go beyond straight bets on the value of digital currencies.

7:32But it's retail investors who back Trump-linked projects that stand to lose the most from the drawdown. For example, any speculator who bought Trump's meme coin at its peak on inauguration weekend would have lost almost the entire value of their investment by this month. Despite the challenges, Eric Trump, the president's second-born son, has repeatedly urged investors to double down. In London, Tiwa Adebayo, Bloomberg Radio.

8:03Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Good morning, Michael. Good morning, Lisa. New York Mayor-elect Zoran Mamdani is talking about his surprisingly friendly meeting Friday with President Donald Trump at the White House. Yesterday, Mamdani said he's feeling good coming out of that meeting, calling it productive. On NBC's Meet the Press, Mamdani went on to say in that meeting, it went back to cost of living. I've said plainly and openly that I believe that these are two tax proposals that make sense, increasing the personal income taxes on New Yorkers making a million dollars or more by just 2%, increasing the top corporate tax rate to that match that of New Jersey.

8:45And what I've also said is more important than how we fund something is that we fund something. And if there are additional or alternate revenue streams to do so, I will accept them and I will celebrate them because the most important thing is to actually deliver for the New Yorkers who right now can't even conceive of having a family in New York City. Memdani also told Meet the Press or at Sundays on Bloomberg, although he still believes President Trump is a fascist, he viewed their first face-to-face meeting as an opportunity to work together on making New York more affordable. Israel said it killed Hezbollah's military chief of general staff in a rare airstrike on Beirut as an almost year-old ceasefire deal with the Lebanese government waivers.

9:28The Israeli army says Abu Ali al-Tabdabi served as a significant source of knowledge and influence within Hezbollah. Lebanon's health ministry says the daylight attack left five people dead and 28 injured. Volume at airports is expected to pick up as Thanksgiving approaches. AAA says more than 31 million people will fly between now and December 1st. The holiday travel rush comes on the heels of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Speaking to ABC, Rico Walker, who's been a TSA officer for 20 years, said he and his colleagues are ready to go. Morale is upbeat again. We're ready to do our mission, ready to do our job.

10:12We're the best at what we do. The TSA's Rico Walker also had a message for travelers. Pack your patience. There will be lines and there will be wait times. Global news, 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg Lisa. Thanks, Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. And for that, we bring in John Stashauer. The best record in the NFL belongs to the New England Patriots at 10-2, a nine-game winning streak. The Pats won 26-20 at Cincinnati. The best in the NFC belonging to the LA Rams, who last night blew out Tampa Bay 34-7 while Matthew Stafford, the Rams, are 9-2.

10:51The Eagles were looking like they'd be 9-2. They had a 21-0 lead in Dallas. The Cowboys came back to win 24-21. A baseball trade, the Mets set longtime outfielder Brandon Nimmo to Texas for infielder Marcus Simeon. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this. Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute. Capturing value and fixed income is not easy. Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real, lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day.

11:27But not Vanguard. At Vanguard, institutional quality isn't a tagline. It's a commitment to your clients. We're talking top-grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200-person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders. These folks live and breathe fixed income. So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com slash audio. That's vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk, Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels, where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made.

12:05And I'm Caroline Hepker in London with the hosts of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. We're up early every weekday keeping an eye on what's happening across Europe and around the world. We do it early so the news is fresh, not recycled and so you know what actually matters as the day gets going. From Brussels, I'm following the politics, policy and the people shaping the European Union right now. And from London, I'm looking at what all that means for markets, money and the wider economy. We've got reporters across Europe and around the globe feeding in as stories break So whether it's geopolitics, energy, tech or markets you're hearing it while it happens It's smart, calm and to the point And it fits into your morning You can find new episodes of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast by 7am in Dublin or 8am in Brussels, Berlin and Paris On Apple, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts

13:03Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM and around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reporting a lot of progress in efforts to end the war in Ukraine after a weekend of talks in Geneva. But with the U.S. pressuring Ukraine to accept a peace deal this week, Rubio says the process isn't over yet. It is probably the most productive day we have had on this issue, maybe in the entirety of our engagement, but certainly in a very long time. But work remains. That was Secretary of State Marco Rubio following those talks in Switzerland and joining us this morning from Brussels is Bloomberg's Oliver Crook.

13:44Oliver, good morning. Catch us up on what progress was made over the weekend. President Trump was talking about Ukraine accepting a deal by Thanksgiving. Is that still on the table? Yeah, I think the Thanksgiving deadline is a bit shifting at this point. I think that there is an acknowledgement that actually this is an extremely complicated process that is dealing with a great many different facets, including security guarantees that could be sort of NATO like and style Article five. And that obviously is one of the most delicate issues you can touch anywhere in the world about whether or not you're going to engage militarily with somebody in case the rules of a certain agreement are violated.

14:20So those are still things that are very much need to be worked out. it is obviously the ambition of the Trump administration to bring extreme pressure to bear on the Ukrainians to basically get them talking more openly about things that they were basically drawing red lines are on. And I think that he's probably been successful to a degree because of that plan. And that plan that came out last week 28 point plan, I have to tell you, made for extremely poor reading here in Brussels and in Kyiv, every sort of minister you talk to, obviously it's sidelined the Europeans completely, while at the same time imposing on Europe, not just Ukraine, talking about defense architecture outside of Ukraine, beyond saying that, for example, one of the articles was that NATO will not accept any additional members.

15:01That does not mean just Ukraine. That means anybody else. So obviously, those were things that the Europeans reacted very poorly to. And we should say that the Europeans, I think, are learning in 2025 that if you want a seat at the table with the Trump administration, you need to earn it. And there are ways in which they have failed to do so for this whole year. So then how are the Europeans trying to get that seat back at the table? What efforts are they making? So that was a conversation I just had with the Lithuanian foreign minister just a couple of minutes ago who acknowledged this fact. And the one thing that the Europeans can do, and they have failed to do to this point, is basically get into those Russian assets.

15:35There are 140 billion euros worth of Russian assets that are sitting here in Belgium, sitting in Euroclear. The 27 leaders of the European Union member states have not been able to get an agreement on how to basically unlock the proceeds from those assets and those assets themselves alone against them. And that has been what they've been bickering about for weeks. And basically, those Russian assets were discussed in that 28-point plan. The United States had different ideas about what to do with that money. So the question is, are those assets now off the table, or is this the moment that Europe needs to take in order to bring that leverage to bear?

16:08I mean, imagine the difference in terms of Ukraine's negotiating position, having zero dollars in the bank and having 140 billion euros available to basically fund their military for the next two years. It is a completely different calculus. So then is this part of that revised and updated peace framework that Secretary Rubio and the Ukrainian chief of staff say that they worked out following those weekend talks? So I think the thing that's really difficult, Nathan, about these peace negotiations, when you're trying to understand where they actually are, until you actually see the document, as we did last year, the 28-point plan, the problem for the Europeans and the Ukrainians is that no one can be very honest or transparent about how they actually feel about this document until you actually see the points, right?

16:48Because if you've learned anything about the Trump administration, the golden rule is do not criticize them. Do not say you don't like the plan. Don't say it's a nonstarter. You say, yes, we think this is a great framework and this is how we would like to change it. So I think at this stage, until we actually see a revised draft of this proposal, it's going to be hard to say how close those positions are to being bridged. To say nothing of the fact that the Russians still have not had their input into the sort of latest part of the discussions. And that will, of course, be the Ukrainian and the European method here in trying to convince Donald Trump that once again, It's actually Putin who is the obstacle to peace, not Zelensky and the Europeans.

17:21Whether or not he'll be able to convince Trump is an entirely different question.

17:47Bloomberg 92.9 in Boston and nationwide on Sirius XM channel 121. Plus, listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces. And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Lisa Mateo. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

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