No End of War in Sight; Oil Hits $116 a Barrel

0:00The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slashed repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. Being a small business owner isn't just a career, it's a calling. Chase for Business knows how much heart and effort go into building something of your own.

0:38Manage all your business finances, from banking to payments to credit cards, all in one place with Chase's digital tools. Plus, access online resources designed to help your business thrive. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. Sonesta Travel Pass makes traveling more rewarding. Designed to help you get more out of every stay. Sign up at Sonesta.com to enjoy instant savings, bonus points, and valuable perks like early check-in, late checkout, room upgrades, and free stays over time.

1:21With Sonesta Travel Pass, every stay brings you closer to your next reward. Choose from more than 1 ,100 hotels across 13 distinctive brands and unlock the best available rates when you book direct with Sinesta Travel Pass. Here today, roam tomorrow. Join now at Sinesta.com. Terms and conditions apply. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Alexis Christophorus. Alexis, the war with Iran is now into its fifth week, and there is little sign of the conflict ending anytime soon. Over the weekend, Iran-backed Houthi forces entered the fight for the first time as a U.S.

2:04amphibious assault group arrived in the region. But President Trump is insisting Iran is ready to make a deal. We have a group. It's really a new regime. It's a new group of people, people that we've never dealt with before, that are acting very reasonable. It is truly regime change. President Trump told reporters on Air Force One last night that Iran's given the U.S. most of the demands from its 15-point peace plan. At the same time, the president told the Financial Times he wants to, quote, take the oil in Iran. Bloomberg's Jumana Bersetchi has more from Dubai. Everything on the ground is pointing to further escalation.

2:40Now, of note, Friday evening, we had the first units of these Marine expeditionary units arriving to the Middle East. That's around 3 ,500 troops, 2 ,200 Marines. Lots of questions about how they're going to be deployed, whether there will be some form of an attempt to take over Karg Islands, which is what he referenced in that interview with the FT. You just spoke about that. Wall Street Journal saying that maybe they could attempt a targeted raid to extract the enriched uranium stockpile that is on Iranian territory. At this point, we don't really know, but the fact that it has arrived to the region suggests the real possibility of further military escalation.

3:20Bloomberg's Jumana Berset, she reports Pakistan has offered to facilitate peace talks in the coming days, but it's unclear whether either side is negotiating. Meanwhile, Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency confirmed the death of the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Navy. Israel claimed it killed Al-Araza Tangsiri in an airstrike last week. The arrival of those 3 ,500 new U.S. forces in the Middle East was the talk of the Sunday political shows. Republican Senator James Langford says he does not see it as a prolonged buildup. We're not trying to be able to go in and to be able to occupy the country or to be able to have a longstanding, long-term war.

3:55No one wants to see that. So I'm looking forward to us getting this mission complete and getting out of there. Senator James Langford appeared on NBC's Meet the Press, but Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen says the White House is sending a mixed message. Donald Trump said we won this war. And so the question for President Trump, who's completely delusional, is if we won the war, why are they preparing to send thousands of more American troops into harm's way? Senator Chris Van Hollen appeared on ABC's This Week, and you can hear This Week and Meet the Press every Sunday right here on Bloomberg Radio.

4:28In another major development, Alexis, a Russian tanker carrying about 100 ,000 tons of oil has arrived in Cuba. That's according to Russia's Interfax news agency. President Trump had said he would allow the shipment for humanitarian reasons, saying, quote, they have to survive. It's a failing country, and they're going to be next. Within a short period of time, it's going to fail. And we will be there to help it out. The president's repeatedly threatened action against Cuba's leftist government in a near total blockade of the island's fuel and financing. And Nathan, oil is on the rise again. Right now, Brent crude topping$115 the barrel.

5:05Brent has surged around 60 percent this month, and many on the street see it going even higher. This morning, analysts at Societe Generale see a growing likelihood Brent tops$150 a barrel. Ronda Fahmy is a former U.S. associate deputy energy secretary. She says the global oil market is in for a shock as the Middle East conflict drags on. It's been an earthquake, as we all know, in Petroleum 101 or Energy 101. When something like this happens, the global oil market is in for a shock. And I don't think anybody didn't predict that Iran has leverage. And the leverage is the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S.

5:45Associate Deputy Energy Secretary Rhonda Fahmy made those comments in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Julian Lee covers the oil markets for Bloomberg. The one thing I think is undeniable is that the longer this goes on and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to traffic, the more upward pressure there will be on oil prices and the more difficult it will be to see those coming down quickly. Bloomberg oil strategist Julian Lee made the comments on Bloomberg this weekend. Catch the program Saturdays and Sundays on Bloomberg Radio at 7 a.m. Wall Street time. As for the equity markets, Alexis, futures are higher as we kick off the trading week.

6:24The S &P 500 fell 3.4 percent the last two trading sessions. That's the biggest two-day decline in a year. The index is now more than 8 percent below its January record. And the NASDAQ 100 is now in correction territory, down 10 percent. Mark Lushini is chief investment strategist at JANI. JANI Capital Management. Right now, it seems as though equity prices are trying to probe for a bottom which remains elusive. And at the same time, the safety that you would normally find in bond prices isn't working, obviously, because of the inflationary pressures that are being parted on yields. JANI Capital Management's Mark Lashini and Morgan Stanley's out with a comment on the market this morning.

7:01Strategist Mike Wilson says the S &P 500 correction is near its final stages. And Nathan, in other news this morning, pay for Transportation Secretary administration workers may be coming, but long airlines or long lines rather at the airlines may persist. Major U.S. airports are still urging travelers to arrive hours early. President Trump ordered emergency pay for TSA agents over the weekend. The White House boarder czar says ICE agents deployed to airports may still remain at airports for a while. There is a plan to get these TSA agents pay, hopefully by tomorrow, Tuesday. So yeah, it's good news because these TSA officers are struggling.

7:40They can't feed their families or pay their rent. Tens of thousands of TSA employees have been working without pay since Department of Homeland Security funding lapsed. And Alexis, for the first time in more than 50 years, NASA is sending astronauts back to the moon. Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow will be in Florida to watch the Artemis II mission, which is set to launch Wednesday. They're basically doing a flyby or a fly around the moon. So they travel deep into space, 285 ,000 miles, go around the moon and come back. But it's, you know, it's the great dress rehearsal for the technology, essentially, that's planned to get humankind and driven by NASA America back to the moon, maybe 2028.

8:25Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow says Artemis 2 is a 10-day mission to the moon without landing before heading back to Earth.

8:35Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker. Good morning, John. And good morning, Alexis. French authorities detained two new suspects in connection with a foil bombing near the Bank of America office in Paris. According to the Interior Minister, a bomb was placed by minors or young men were paid to carry out the plan. Police have stamped up security measures around Jewish and U.S.-affiliated sites since the start of the war. Millions of people protested the war in Iran and President Trump's actions and policies at thousands of no-king's rallies across the nation over the weekend.

9:10And Bloomberg's Wendy Benjamin says they may have fallen on deaf ears with the Trump administration. The administration is doing nothing to build public support for the war. We don't see Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary. We don't see Marco Rubio. We don't see J.D. Vance. They haven't in the last few weeks been coming out into the public to say, here's why we are attacking Iran. Here's why we've started that war. And here's why it's worth sending thousands of troops to the region. New York City had one of the largest demonstrations with more than 350 ,000 people attending. President Trump spoke with reporters on board Air Force One Sunday evening, responding to questions about the new ballroom that's being built at the White House and reports of a military complex under construction beneath it, confirming the plans are underway.

10:00The military is building a big complex under the ballroom, which has come out recently because of a stupid lawsuit that was filed. But the military is building a massive complex under the ballroom. Trump says the ballroom essentially becomes a shed for what's being built underneath it. Global News 24 hours a day. Whenever you want it, we have Bloomberg News Now. I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg Alexis. Thanks, John. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. And for that, we bring in John Stash Hour. The Final Four is set Saturday in Indianapolis. It'll be Michigan against Arizona. The Wolverines had an easy win over Tennessee.

10:38and it'll be UConn versus Illinois. What a win for the Huskies. They trailed Duke by 19 when Braylon Mullins hit a long three-pointer with less than a second to go. It gave UConn a one-point victory. It was their first lead since it was 2-0. The undefeated UConn women also go into the Final Four after an easy win over Notre Dame. UCLA beat Duke. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this. The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work.

11:27Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM.

12:04Do that with Acrobat. Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat. Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R &D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S &P 500 minus high debt companies.

12:40Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on public, you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and build a one-of-a-kind index. You can even backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market. Add paid for by Public Holdings. Brokered services by Public Investing, member FINRA SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, SEC Registered Advisor. Crypto services by ZeroHash. Sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice.

13:16All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. coast to coast on bloomberg radio nationwide on sirius xm and around the world on bloomberg.com and the bloomberg business app this is bloomberg daybreak good morning i'm nathan hager as the u.s israeli war with iran and hence into a second week there are more signs emerging the conflict could escalate even as president donald trump insists tehran wants to negotiate we're doing extremely well in that negotiation. But you never know with Iran because we negotiate with them and then we always have to blow them up.

13:57That was President Trump speaking aboard Air Force One last night. For the latest, we're joined from Istanbul by Bloomberg Middle East Breaking News editor Patrick Sykes. Patrick, good morning. Where do things stand now on day 31 of this war? Morning, yeah. I think the main thing coming into focus now is this prospect of U.S. action on the ground, perhaps some kind of incursion, even occupation of some of Iran's islands in and around the Persian Gulf. The key one among those would be Khark Island. That's the island in the north of the Persian Gulf, which processes about 90 % of Iran's crude oil exports.

14:37You mentioned in your lead-in that Trump had mentioned wanting to take the oil in Iran. That would be, on the one hand, an obvious way for the US to get leverage in what is fast turning into a protracted war. On the other hand, it would expose any US forces to, I think, greater attacks from Iran. It's obviously very close to their main land, and they've got a very clear incentive to defend that sovereignty line as well. So for now, it does seem we're still in escalation mode. I think the land option is the main one to watch. At the same time, we also heard from President Trump saying, just as we heard, that he thinks the negotiation is going well and that Iran has given the U.S.

15:24most of the 15 demands from the 15-point peace plan. Do we have a sense of what's happening there? Indeed. I mean, when that plan first kind of emerged, Iran was very vocal in rejecting it. I've just sent a headline myself a few minutes ago saying, citing the foreign ministry spokesman in Iran saying that US demands have been excessive and illogical so far. So Iran, for the moment, at least publicly, still very keen to say that it's not on board with these demands. It's worth mentioning that a lot of them appeared in the diplomatic negotiations that were happening before the talks, right? So through the course of the war, Or if anything, we've just added new U.S.

16:09demands to that, most prominently, of course, the status of the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of shipping being allowed to pass freely again. And on the idea of further escalation, we saw over the weekend, of course, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels entering the fight for the first time. What could that imply as far as where this conflict goes from here? Yeah, that's definitely escalatory, right? It's a whole new front. It's a whole new regional militia of Iran that's joining the fray after, you know, we've already seen Hezbollah in Lebanon do so earlier in the war. The attack in this case was targeting Israel.

16:52That, I think, in markets was perceived to be fairly limited because the main risk from the Houthis is that they, not that they target Israel itself, but that they target the Red Sea, shipping in the Red Sea, and in particular, the Saudi export terminal or ships that are calling there in Yambu on the Red Sea. because that is Saudi Arabia's plan B. It's their alternative export route now that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to them. So any strike on that would be much more significant. But the Houthis will also have to balance that with their own diplomacy with the Saudis, with whom they've negotiated a ceasefire in recent months.

17:33Yeah, just 30 seconds left. But on the idea of diplomacy, we heard from Pakistan saying they stand ready to mediate after their own meetings with regional officials. Is that going anywhere? Yeah, the Pakistan official suggested that could come in the coming days. But we haven't seen any indication that there's anything along those lines scheduled yet. For now, it doesn't appear that anything concrete has come of that. But I think we can expect to see more from those ministers involved, Turkey, Saudi, Pakistan, Egypt, trying to bring down the temperature and look for a diplomatic solution.

18:3992.9 in Boston and nationwide on Sirius XM channel 121. Plus, listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces. And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Alexis Christophorus. And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

19:14For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down, often without clear warning signs. In Season 3 of The Visibility Gap, Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of The Visibility Gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare. Do you ever feel like you're drinking from a firehouse? PayCore's intelligent HR solution empowers leaders to turn down the pressure.

19:53Their unified platform includes payroll, talent management, compliance software, and a lot more, connecting you to the people, data, and expertise you need to drive long-term business results. Visit paycor.com slash leaders and go from work flood to workflow. That's paycor.com slash leaders.

20:35overclocking. Win the tech search. Power up at Lenovo.com. Lenovo. Lenovo.