NYC, NJ and VA in Focus on Election Day; Shutdown Pressure Builds

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0:41That's vanguard.com slash audio. All investing and subject to risk, Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. Donald Trump is rewriting the Washington rulebook and reshaping the global economy. If you're trying to connect the dots behind the headlines, Bloomberg's Trumponomics podcast is here to help. I'm Stephanie Flanders, Head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg. Every week I'll bring you a smart, focused conversation with reporters and experts from Washington, Wall Street and beyond. Listen to new episodes every Wednesday and follow Trumponomics wherever you listen.

1:20Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, we begin with election day from coast to coast, starting with a key race in New York for mayor of the city. Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo is in Manhattan with the very latest. Lisa, good morning. Good morning, Nathan. And now one of the candidates getting a last minute endorsement from President Donald Trump. In a social media post, the president said, quote, whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him and hope he does a fantastic job.

2:00He is capable of it. Mondami is not. Now, President Trump also called Democratic Socialist frontrunner Zora Mondami a communist. He threatened to withhold federal funds, quote, other than the very minimum as required from the city if Mondami is elected. Now, the post didn't seem to bother Mondani. He campaigned across the city yesterday. The MAGA movement's embrace of Andrew Cuomo is reflective of Donald Trump's understanding that this would be the best mayor for him. Now, both Cuomo and Mondani have promised to defend the city from President Trump. Cuomo made that evident while talking to voters yesterday.

2:36I can stand up to Trump. Trump will go through Mondani like a hot knife through butter. Well, meanwhile, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa still on the ballot. He, despite calls to drop out of the race, President Trump saying a vote for Sliwa is a vote for Mondami. Elon Musk agreed with the Post on X saying, quote, a vote for Curtis is really a vote for Mondami or whatever his name is, because he spelled his name wrong in the post. And he ended it by saying vote Cuomo. Lisa Matteo, Bloomberg Radio. All right, Lisa, thank you. We want to stay in the tri-state area. There's a key gubernatorial race in New Jersey with Republican politician and businessman Jack Cittarelli facing off against Democrat Congresswoman Mikey Sherrill for the seat held by term limited governor Phil Murphy.

3:24For more on that race, we go to Bloomberg's Denise Pellegrini. The stakes are high in New Jersey, where the governor's race is seen by many as a test for just how much ground Republicans can gain in a once very heavily Democratic state. Sherrill has been slamming Cittarelli's support for President Trump. On every single occasion, Jack has decided, I'm going to defend Trump. Cittarelli has heavy praise for the president. We're very thankful for all that he's done to secure the border and enhance national security. We're very thankful for all that he's done to improve the economy. President Trump in New Jersey campaigning for Cittarelli.

3:58Mikey will send New Jersey into a death spiral. And former President Barack Obama has been campaigning for Cheryl. We need leaders like Mikey, public servants who are in it for the right reason. And this race has tightened appreciably in the past few weeks as voters express dismay over rising electric bills and the overall cost of living. Denise Pellegrini, Bloomberg Radio. Denise, thank you. We're also tracking one more governor's race in Virginia. Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earl Sears are vying to become the Commonwealth's first woman governor. Earl Sears would be the first black woman to lead any state if she wins.

4:33But University of Virginia's Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato says the odds are in Spanberger's favor. You have to search hard in Virginia, the state in which I live, to find any analyst who thinks Earl Sears has any real chance of winning. Most people will bet that it's going to be a Spanberger landslide. Larry Sabato with the University of Virginia. Spanberger's been running as a center-left candidate focused on living costs and the impact of President Trump's tax-cut law on health care. Earl Sears has given high marks to the president, but he has not actively campaigned for her. Well, Nathan, the other major race to watch is in California, where voters are deciding on Proposition 50.

5:14It's a ballot question that would replace the state's congressional map drawn by an independent commission and replace it with one from the Democratic-controlled legislature. Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is spearheading the effort. Prop 50 is not about drawing lines on a map. It is about holding the line to what makes us who we are. California Governor Gavin Newsom's push could erase up to five Republican-held districts and offset redistrict efforts in Texas and other Republican-led states. More than$100 million have been spent on TV and cable ads in the Prop 50 campaign. More than two-thirds of it came from supporters.

5:54Let's turn back to markets now, Karen. Stocks are selling off on this Election Day morning. Wall Street chief executives say investors should brace for an equity pullback and that such a correction may be positive. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon spoke at the 2025 Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit in Hong Kong. Of course, it is likely there'll be a 10 to 20 percent drawdown in equity markets sometime in the next 12 to 24 months. And I'd say there are very few people in this room that don't think that that's a meaningful possibility. It doesn't mean that the general direction of capital flows, investment, portfolio allocation is changing.

6:29It just means things run and then they pull back so people can reassess. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's sentiments of a possible stock pullback were echoed by Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Mike Gitlin, who helps oversee about$3 trillion at Capital Group. The S &P 500 is trading at 23 times forward earnings estimates. That is above its five-year average of 20 times. Well, Nathan, also adding pressure to the overall market this morning, Palantir shares of the AI darling are falling. They're down more than 7.5 % right now, despite beating earnings estimates and raising its annual revenue outlook.

7:05We get more from Bloomberg's Tom McKenzie in London. This is a company that has not missed estimates for 21 consecutive quarters. In fact, it has beaten estimates for 21 consecutive quarters. So that comes down to a valuation story. This is a stock that's been one of the darlings of AI. The stock is up around 160, 170 % year to date. And the valuation for many is just too rich. The valuation concerns this price to sales ratio, for example, one metric of looking at valuations at 85. That is the highest in the S &P 500. And Bloomberg's Tom McKenzie says profit, excluding some items, was 21 cents a share compared with analysts' average estimates of 17 cents.

7:45Karen, we're watching shares of iHeart Media this morning. They are up 13 percent in early trading. Bloomberg News has learned Netflix is in talks to license video podcasts distributed by iHeart. Sources say the streaming giant is seeking exclusivity for the video programs, meaning full episodes would no longer be uploaded to YouTube. iHeart distributes popular programs like The Breakfast Club, Las Culturistas, the Jay Shetty podcast, and Stuff You Should Know. Well, in Europe, Nathan, BP's profits topped estimates. The British energy giant also maintained its quarterly share buyback plan. Operational improvements in higher oil and gas production outweighed lower prices.

8:26Turning back to politics, Karen, it is now day 35 of the government shutdown, now tied for the longest in U.S. history. Now, after suspending federal food assistance at the start of this month, the Trump administration says it will comply with a judge's order to resume the benefits, but only at half the level that households normally receive. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer says that doesn't go far enough. Everyone can get full benefits. The only person standing in the way is Donald Trump. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer says the administration could draw from tariff proceeds to pay for SNAP.

9:01Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says that could lead to a shortfall in other programs like school meals for low-income students.

9:11Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker. John, good morning. Good morning, Karen. As voters head to the polls across the nation, elections face a security test as the Department of Homeland Security cuts its local cyber support. Let's get more from Washington and Bloomberg's Amy Morris. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, or CISA, has ended its regular Election Day situation room that shared intelligence with state and local authorities. Now, this is after the dismantling of the agency's election security team earlier this year, and remaining election personnel are not allowed to work with nor contact state election officials.

9:53These cuts have sent state and local officials responsible for running elections, searching for ways to shore up potential gaps in cybersecurity, threat monitoring, and physical protection of polling places. In Washington, Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio. A nail-biter national election in the Netherlands. It came down to postal votes from Dutch citizens living abroad. The centrist D66 party has eked out a win over the anti-Islam lawmaker Gerd Wilders' far-right party for freedom. A word this morning that European leaders, including Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Mertz and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will skip the EU summit with Latin American and Caribbean states due in part to concerns over angering President Trump.

10:39The European Union's CELAC summit is coming under scrutiny as the U.S. targets countries including Colombia, which is hosting the summit, and Venezuela over drug trafficking claims. and the Department of Homeland Security directing Border Patrol agents to screen off foreign travelers with facial recognition tools as they enter and leave the U.S. The Wall Street Journal reports the move, set to take effect in late December, would also create a massive biometric database. Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm John Tucker and this is Bloomberg Karen. Thanks, John.

11:13Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. And for that, we bring in John Stashauer. Thanks, Karen. Mother Night Football was in Dallas. Arizona ended a five-game losing streak, beat the Cowboys 27-17. The NFL trade deadline comes today. Washington quarterback Jane Daniels has another injury. He's already missed time with injuries to his knee and hamstring, and now he's got a dislocated left elbow. Walt Weiss named the new manager of the Atlanta Braves. He finished his playing career playing for the Braves. He's been the bench coach under Brian Stitker. He formerly was the manager in Colorado. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update.

11:47Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this.

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13:43Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business App. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. A New York City mayor's race that has caught the nation's attention is now in the final stretch. And heading into this election day, former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Democratic nominee Zoran Mamdani have been sparring over the Trump factor. We need a mayor who can stand up to Donald Trump. We know and have known for months that Donald Trump would favor Andrew Cuomo as the mayor. That were Andrew Cuomo and Zoran Mamdani in their final campaign stops before this election day.

14:25This morning, we are joined by Bloomberg Daybreak editor Mark Perrier. Mark, good morning. At the final stretch, we do have a Trump factor, a final or last minute endorsement of former Governor Cuomo from the president. it. Does that affect the race at this final stretch? Good morning. Good morning. And just to add on to what you said, not only the nation is looking at this is, you know, major international news as well. Will it impact on the electorate today? We shall see. It may impact on undecided voters as the funding being cut may rattle the undecided. I suspect that people who are locked in for Cuomo or Mamdani will remain locked in.

15:10But again, we shall see how this plays out today. How have the candidates moved to expand their coalitions since the primary? It's been rather frayed, I would say, especially with the shutdown looming in the background. I think today may set the tone. You know, the outcome of today's election may set the tone for the next year leading into the midterms next year. And we're also looking, obviously, at other key elections today in California, in Virginia, in New Jersey. So I think, you know, I'm not sure if this will repair anything. But again, it's such an interesting story to follow. We had early voting, record-setting early voting in New York City.

16:02I think it blew past maybe more than doubling the previous record from just four years ago. What does that tell us about how this could turn out after tonight? I think this tells us that people are really concerned about the issues that Mamdani has hit on, the cost of living crisis. But again, I think you also have maybe an older electorate coming in as well to support Cuomo. So it could be from both sides. This election means so much for the city. And again, nationally, it will set the tone for the next year. So I think people felt very compelled to take part in this election. Yeah, I could say a lot as well about the direction of the Democratic Party.

16:48if, as the opinion polls have it, Zorn Mamdani does win this race, in contrast to what we've been seeing in the races in New Jersey and Virginia, where you have somewhat more center-left candidates running in those contests. Exactly. So the city might be looking at a left-leaning government from tomorrow, whenever this decision comes out. You know, it's going to be interesting to see how people actually react to this win and also how the Democrats react to it as well. Since Mamdani does not have the full support of all the major players in the Democratic Party, I think people are engaging with them.

17:31But again, they're being very careful about what they say and what they write. I think people are waiting to see what the outcome will be before making any moves on this. In our last minute, Mark, let's talk about the ballot question in California as well. I mean, this could have some serious midterm implications if indeed the Democratic push to redraw the maps sort of offsets what we've been seeing from Republican led states. Absolutely. It's all eyes on New York, but also all eyes as well on Gavin Newsom and this Proposition 50, which is looking to redraw the congressional map in order to win more seats for the Democrats in the midterms.

18:16Again, the risk is other states might jump in as well and want to do the same. It's also a moment for Gavin Newsom to exercise his power and to potentially gain leading into the year, perhaps as a potential lead for the Democratic Party. We shall see. But it's definitely all very interesting today. We're all watching. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning starting at 5 a.m.

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