Stocks Rise as US Nears China Trade Deal; Trump Says He Won't Resume Canada Talks

0:00Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made. And I'm Caroline Hepker in London with the hosts of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. We're up early every weekday keeping an eye on what's happening across Europe and around the world. We do it early so the news is fresh, not recycled and so you know what actually matters as the day gets going. From Brussels, I'm following the politics, policy and the people shaping the European Union right now. And from London, I'm looking at what all that means for markets, money and the wider economy. We've got reporters across Europe and around the globe feeding in as stories break.

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1:02Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, futures are surging on signs the U.S. and China are closing in on a trade deal. Both sides spent the weekend in Malaysia coming to terms on a range of contentious issues, including export controls, fentanyl and shipping fees. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says President Trump's threat of a 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods is effectively off the table and he expects China will make substantial purchases of American soybeans. Those soybeans were always going to be on the market.

1:45It's a global market. The three leading suppliers are Brazil, Argentina and the U.S. And I believe that we have brought the market back into equilibrium. and I believe that the Chinese will be making substantial purchases again. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson spoke on CBS's Face the Nation, heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio after he met with his Chinese counterpart. President Trump says he may drop an investigation into whether China violated his first-term trade deal when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. Well, Nathan, the president's next stop in his trip to Asia is Japan.

2:20He arrived there earlier this morning. He told reporters he was excited for his meeting with new Japanese Prime Minister Sanei Takeishi and the prospect of completing a joint deal to promote shipbuilding capacity. The meeting is a high-stakes test for Takeishi, who was selected by lawmakers to become Japan's first woman prime minister earlier this month. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says his government is prepared to resume trade talks with the U.S. at any time. That's after President Trump announced an additional 10 percent in tariffs on goods imported from Canada after the province of Ontario aired an anti-tariff advertisement featuring Ronald Reagan.

2:55Carney says the world will start shifting away from trade with the U.S. So naturally, trade is going to shift away by definition. The other reason is from the U.S. for a period of time on that. It's also shifting because it's more expensive to trade with the United States. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made those comments about trade with the U.S. at a business and investment forum in Malaysia. Nathan, President Trump is ruling out the idea of running as a vice presidential candidate in the 2028 election. He made the comments this morning on Air Force One as some of his supporters urged him to find ways to circumvent the Constitution's prohibition on a president being elected to three terms.

3:37The president has declined to rule out seeking another term despite the constitutional term limit. Well, there's no end to the government shutdown, Karen. and it is now up to date 27, and the impact is starting to spread beyond the Beltway. More flights are seeing departure and arrival delays as air traffic controllers call in sick rather than work through the shutdown without pay. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy says that's only going to get worse. As we get to Monday, tomorrow, Tuesday, and Wednesday, that you're going to see more staffing shortages in towers, which means you're going to see more delays, more cancellations.

4:10Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy made those comments on Fox News' Sunday morning futures The Agriculture Department says as of this Saturday, it will no longer have the funds to send out supplemental nutrition assistance, also known as food stamps. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says Republicans need to negotiate on Democrats' demands for extended health insurance subsidies. They have had the opportunity, both House Republicans and Senate Republicans, repeatedly throughout the year to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits, and they've consistently voted against it. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was a guest on CBS's Face the Nation, heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio.

4:48Nathan, early voting began over the weekend in the race to run the nation's largest city. On Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us with more. John, good morning. Good morning, Karen. Thousands of voters showed up both Saturday and Sunday to pick the next mayor, the Big Apple, and the turnout for early voting was reported heavy. Voted for Mamdani. I think that he has a lot of really good ideas for the future of New York. I wanted to go for Cuomo because I wanted to go for the experience. I don't want to die of learning on the job. The front-runner Democratic Socialist Zoran Mondani has been working to build a governing coalition by meeting with all comers, including the business community that's been bashing his plans.

5:27And with only eight days until Election Day, supporters of Andrew Cuomo are pouring money into a ground game. They include political action committees fueled by Bill Ackman and Ronald Lauder. The tone of the race, it has turned ugly in the final days with a sharpened focus on religion in race. Cuomo has questioned Mamdani's ability to manage, quote, another 9-11, with Mamdani complaining of Cuomo's racist attacks. Republican Curtis Sleeve on trails in third place. The current mayor, Eric Adams, dropped out of the race. In New York, I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. John, thank you. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says there are now five finalists to succeed Jay Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

6:07Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Besson said the candidate pool is now Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Michelle Bowman and Rick Reeder. President Trump says he expects to make a decision on the nominee before the end of the year. Meanwhile, it's a big week for policy decisions around the world, Nathan. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada are widely anticipated to cut rates by a quarter point on Wednesday. while the Bank of Japan is predicted to hold off on a rate hike the following day. The European Central Bank is also expected to keep rates steady after its meeting in Florence on Thursday.

6:38We got some deal news on this Monday morning. Karen Novartis has agreed to buy U.S.-based Avidity Biosciences for$12 billion. Avidity is developing experimental drugs to treat rare diseases, and the shares this morning are up more than 42 percent. And Toyota maintained record global sales during the first half of the fiscal year as growth in the U.S. helped counter a lukewarm showing in Japan and China. Global sales rose almost 3 percent in September from a year earlier. The world's biggest carmaker has managed to achieve overall growth despite volatility in China and trade tensions brought about by President Trump's tariffs on cars and parts imported to the U.S.

7:20time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in new york and around the world and for that we're joined by bloomberg's michael barr michael good morning good morning karen hurricane melissa is roaring toward jamaica and has grown to a destructive category five storm it is expected to strengthen further before making landfall on the caribbean nation with up to 30 inches of rain and a life-threatening storm surge melissa's center was forecast to move over jamaica on Tuesday, across southeast Cuba on Tuesday night, and across the southeast Bahamas on Wednesday. This man is a resident of St.

7:56James Parish. So we use plywoods to barricade the areas and sandbags to ensure that during the storm we don't have any issues off, any debris going inside, or anybody passes by to probably want to go inside. With more on the storm, here's Bloomberg meteorologist Craig Allen. Haiti and the Dominican Republic and parts of Jamaica being pummeled by major hurricane Melissa. The very slow westward movement is going to turn more to the north and northeast and head right for Jamaica. This is going to be an absolutely catastrophic storm for Jamaica with Cat 5 winds over 150 miles per hour gusting to 170.

8:32Bloomberg meteorologist Craig Allen. The storm has caused four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Argentina's libertarian president Javier Malay has won, decisive victories in key districts across the country in midterm elections. He clinched a crucial vote of confidence that strengthens his ability to carry out his free market agenda with billions of dollars in backing from the Trump administration. A U.S. military helicopter and a fighter jet crashed in the South China Sea, with the incidents occurring about 30 minutes apart. The U.S. Navy said all five people involved in the accidents were safe and investigations were underway.

9:13Authorities have arrested two suspects in connection with the theft of crown jewels from Paris' Louvre Museum. One suspect was caught at Charles de Gaulle Airport while attempting to leave the country. The theft, which took less than eight minutes, involved jewels valued at more than$102 million. Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, Karen. Thanks, Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. and for that we bring in John Stashauer. Thanks, Karen. The NFL Sunday ended with Aaron Rodgers facing the team he played for for 18 years, but Blitzburg lost to Green Bay 35-25 as Rodgers' replacement with the Packers, Jordan Love threw three touchdown passes, Rodgers threw for two.

9:59They'll play game three of the World Series tonight in L.A. The Blue Jays and Dodgers are tied to one Toronto starting 41-year-old Max Scherzer. 42-year-old Craig Albanese named the new manager the Baltimore Orioles. he had been the bench coach in Cleveland. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this. As markets move and headlines break, what matters most is context. A Bloomberg subscription gives you unmatched reporting, sharp analysis, and powerful tools that help you connect the dots. Visit Bloomberg.com slash podcast offer to learn more.

10:40coast to coast on bloomberg radio nationwide on sirius xm and around the world on bloomberg.com and the bloomberg business app this is bloomberg daybreak good morning i'm nathan hager on a morning where the markets are getting a lift on signs the u.s and china may be getting close to a trade deal treasury secretary scott besson says he and his negotiating team made a lot of progress in talks with their Chinese counterparts in Malaysia over the weekend. We had a very good two days. We discussed a wide variety of issues from the rare earth magnets to trade to substantial purchases of American agricultural products.

11:19Treasury Secretary Scott Besson discussed those negotiations on CBS's Face the Nation, heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio. And this morning, we're joined by Bloomberg News Global Trade Czar Brendan Murray. And Brendan, it's not just the Treasury Secretary saying this, but Chinese officials as well are saying that they've made a number of agreements on tariffs, shipping fees, even fentanyl. What's your read on what came out of the discussions in Malaysia? Good morning. Yeah, exactly. The rhetoric has really turned 180 degrees over the past week. If you recall, they were escalating talks of putting export controls and higher tariffs.

11:53100 percent U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports was the threat from President Trump. But it seems like they've set all of those aside and said, look, a trade war isn't going to be good for either of the world's two largest economies. And it's probably better if we just get to some agreement on these. We'll have to wait and see what the leaders, the details that they sign on Thursday. But it looks like China is going to purchase some U.S. soybeans. They had stopped doing that for several months. Perhaps the U.S. is going to rethink the 20 % tariffs on Chinese goods related to the fentanyl export that the U.S.

12:33accuses China of being part of. And some of these other issues, the shipping fees, these are just kind of concessions that the U.S. could give up. China also, it would be interesting to see what it does with its rare earth export controls that a lot of countries said would just really seize up the world economy if they were allowed to go ahead with those. So there's deadlines ahead. November 1st is when President Trump threatened to put the 100 % tariff on China. That's coming up. November 10th is when their current truce expires. So there's not a lot of time to put this all together, but it sounds like the negotiators are making a lot of progress toward that end.

13:08And going into those negotiations, of course, Brennan, then there was some concern among observers that the U.S. could be rushing into a trade deal. Does this look like a rush at this point? I wouldn't necessarily call it a trade deal per se. This doesn't really have the hallmarks of any kind of trade deal. It's just kind of getting resetting back where they were. You know, getting China to buy soybeans is not exactly a win. It's just, you know, try getting them to resume buying soybeans after they started. So it looks like the tensions are being ratcheted down. The two leaders, once they get together face-to-face, what they would assume, they could get to some arrangement where they're not escalating and they're not hurting each other's economies, and they could kind of muddle along.

13:53That doesn't take any uncertainty out of the equation. As we've seen with Canada, President Trump can raise tariffs if he's in the mood to do so. And so that doesn't change the outlook for any certainty that we would get from some sort of agreement that's announced on Thursday. But the markets certainly see this as a sign that the two largest economies are not going to get into a protracted, heated trade war in the near future. We have about a minute left here. In the lead-up to this encounter on Thursday, there's been deals discussed as well with Malaysia, some other Southeast Asian nations as well.

14:33How could that tee up what we see on Thursday? Yeah, so we've got two deals, one with Cambodia, one with Malaysia. That's what the U.S. White House has announced. And then two frameworks, which are basically outlines of deals, one with Thailand and another with Vietnam. So these countries are trying to prevent the higher tariff threat that President Trump has pointed in their direction from going into effect. And so the main thing for them is to get as low a U.S. tariff as they possibly can. And it looks like Cambodia and Malaysia have done that. Thailand and Vietnam, with these framework deals, are going to keep engaging with U.S.

15:11negotiators over the coming weeks and months to try to get their own deals. Of course, Southeast Asian nations, they're all kind of in competition with each other to export to the U.S., so it's important for them to get to some agreement with the U.S., whether or not in the firing line of any sort of excessive tariff. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning starting at 5 a.m.

15:47Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 99.1 in Washington, Bloomberg 92.9 in Boston and nationwide on Sirius XM Channel 121. Plus, listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces. And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it, in five minutes or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

16:28Thank you.