Trump Issues Warning to Putin; Traders Price in September Rate Cut

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1:29Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, we begin with the lead up to a crucial meeting now just a day away. President Trump is set to appear face to face with Russian President Vladimir Putin tomorrow in Anchorage, Alaska. The president is warning of very severe consequences if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine. He says he hopes to set up a second meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after the summit. It was always going to be I was going to meet with President Putin.

2:08And then after that, I'm going to call the leaders and President Zelensky. I'm going to call President Zelensky and then I'll call probably in that order the leaders. There's a very good chance that we're going to have a second meeting, which will be more productive than the first. President Trump spoke at the Kennedy Center and comments heard live on Bloomberg Radio. Bloomberg's Rosalind Matheson says the president appears to be shifting his tone. We had a lot of conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin where Donald Trump seemed quite effusive about the relationship and certainly about his ability to create a ceasefire in Ukraine sooner than later.

2:43Then he seemed to get quite exasperated with Vladimir Putin to the point he was already threatening him with severe consequences, including potentially tightening the noose even further on exports of Russian oil, especially to countries in Europe. And then he swung back a bit towards optimism on these talks. And now again, he's talking about severe consequences. Bloomberg's Roz Matheson reports the president assured European allies in a call yesterday that he would not negotiate territories with Putin, but would instead push him to meet with Zelensky. Nathan, President Trump also says he will name a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell a little bit early.

3:20He made the comments during the Kennedy Center news conference. I'll be naming a new chairman sometime within the next. I think I'll name it a little bit early, the new chairman. I'm down to three or four names. All good. All great. The problem is you name them and then they turn out to be not good. And while the president's maintained his list for the position is relatively short, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant is telling Bloomberg the administration plans to consider as many as 11 candidates. Besant also says interest rates would be one and a half to one and three quarters percent lower by now if the Fed had gotten revised jobs data sooner.

3:57If we'd seen those numbers in May, in June, I suspect we could have had rate cuts in June and July. So that tells me that there's a very good chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. That was Treasury Secretary Scott Besson speaking with Bloomberg. For the full conversation, head to the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube. Nathan, former St. Louis Fed president and current candidate to become the next Fed chair, Jim Bullard, tells Bloomberg that he expects the Fed to cut rates in September, but he does not expect a half-point cut. I think 50 sounds panicky. Sounds like the administration wouldn't be that confident in their economic program, which I don't think is the right stance to take here.

4:45I think they've got a pro-business program that will fire up the economy after we get through the initial phase of the new tariff policies. Former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bollard says if he has chosen to succeed Jay Powell as Fed chairman, he would seek to break down, quote, groupthink inside the central bank. Well, Nathan, over in Europe, the UK economy did better than expected in the second quarter. GDP rose three-tenths percent, beating the one-tenth percent forecast by both private sector economists and the Bank of England. We get more from Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden in London. It is a positive surprise in that it's not as bad as expected, but still growth slowed.

5:26So in the second quarter, you're coming down from 0.7 percent to 0.3 percent, which still understores the stag in stagflation. Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden says the latest figures mean the U.K. recorded the fastest growth of the group of seven nations during the first half of the year. Well, back in this nation, Karen, President Trump's tariffs are having an impact at America's busiest port. The Port of Los Angeles moved more than a million containers last month. That was an eight and a half percent increase from the year before and the most container volume in the port's 117 year history. The port's executive director, Gene Soroka, says traders front-loaded cargo to reach stores before President Trump's new duties took effect.

6:07Let's turn to the markets now, Nathan. In futures, they are little changed after stocks notched another record close. The big winner was the Dow. It gained 1%. PNC chief investment officer Amanda Agati says there are a lot of bullish signs in the market. If you look at the hard data that's been tracking all year, even in the most recent GDP report, a three-handle in terms of growth, we're closing out on Q2 earnings season for the S &P. It's almost 12 percent year-over-year growth. So the hard data is looking really strong. And then when you layer on top of that a potential Fed rate cut, well, what else could the equity market ask for?

6:46PNC Chief Investment Officer Amanda Agati. Traders are fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut next month. Let's check some prices of stocks on the move this morning, Karen. Shares of bullish are up 12.5%. The digital asset exchange operator and owner of media outlet Coindesk rose 84 % in its Wall Street debut yesterday. On the flip side, shares of Coherent are down more than 18%. The semiconductor device company's sales forecast came in below estimates. Cisco shares are down more than 1%. The largest maker of machines that run computer networks and the Internet gave a lukewarm forecast for the current fiscal year.

7:27And it's time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning. Good morning, Karen. President Trump says he is considering extending the federal government's control of the D.C. police force. The president has claimed that crime in Washington is at an all-time high, but recent data shows the opposite, that crime is the lowest it has been in decades. Still, the president told reporters that he plans to extend federal control past the 30 days allotted to him by law by proposing a law to Congress.

8:02He also pushed back on efforts to make Washington, D.C. a state. Statehood is ridiculous. We want to straighten the place out. Statehood's ridiculous. It's unacceptable. Meanwhile, D.C. Councilwoman Brooke Pinto said the district needs more police officers, not federal troops. There are a lot of elements of federal support that we would welcome to support public safety. But the action that the president has taken this week is not the answer. Residents in one Washington, D.C. neighborhood lined up to protest the increased police presence. Republican leaders in Texas say they plan to end the stalemated special session and begin a new one tomorrow.

8:43Some Texas House Democrats who left the state to prevent a vote on new congressional maps said they would return to vote on flood relief. Texas State Representative Linda Garcia. While this is absolutely about redistricting and gerrymandering, we also have to understand the impact that this is going to have across the United States. Texas State Representative Linda Garcia spoke to ABC. Manhattan apartment rents hit a record high for the fifth time in the past six months, with new leases signed at a median of$4 ,700 in July. According to appraiser Miller Samuel and brokerage Douglas Elliman, that is up$75 from June.

9:24Rents surged 9.3 % from a year earlier, the second biggest annual jump in the firm's data going back to 2008. Global news, 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg. Karen. All right, Michael Barr, thank you.

9:46Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update. It's brought to you by Flushing Bank, and here's John Stash Hour. John, good morning. Good morning, Karen. A rare time. Both the Mets and Yankees are at home, so they both sat through rain delays about two hours, and then both blew leads and lost. The Mets had a 6-0 lead. Edwins Soto with a home run, but Atlanta had a big fourth inning against David Peterson, who had control issues. He came out. Reed Garrett came in. Michael Harris singled earlier this inning. He gets a base hit right here. The Braves at least tie the game. Smacked in the air. Deep center field.

10:17Flying back to the wall. It's a grand slam. Michael Harris to the deepest part of the yard with a big city bomb. and the Braves take the lead on the grand slam by Harris. Graves Radio, nine-run inning. Atlanta won 11-6. Yankees got an early Cody Bellinger home run, but only four other hits. The Twins won 4-1. Good news for the Yanks that almost all of the other American League playoff contenders lost. Toronto, only two hits and a 4-1 loss to the Cubs. Red Sox lost at Houston 4-1. Seattle's eight-game win streak ended a 4-3 loss in Baltimore. Cleveland, Texas, Kansas City, all just behind the Yankees the last wild card.

10:58They all lost as well. The Brewers won again. That's 12 wins in a row. It was 12 to 5 over Pittsburgh-Milwaukee with a series sweep by a combined 33 to 6. Brewers have won 27 of their last 31. Minnesota Twins owned by the Polat family since 1984. They had plans to sell the team. They've changed their mind. The Portland Trailblazers bought by the late Paul Allen in 1988 for$70 million. His estate selling to Tom Dundon, who also owns the Carolina Hurricanes, price tag$4 billion. The proceeds to go to philanthropic efforts. And the sale of the Celtics with Grosbeck to Bill Chisholm for a record$6 billion, unanimously approved by the NBA.

11:37Grosbeck was going to continue to oversee operations. That is now no longer the case. John Stash at Bloomberg Sports, Karen and Nathan. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this. Bloomberg Daybreak U.S. Edition is brought to you by OTC Markets Group. Thinking about joining the exploding overnight market space, but unsure where to start? Designed to meet the needs of a growing international investor base, OTC Markets Overnight Platform for Exchange-Listed Securities, Moon ATS, provides access to global securities in U.S. dollars from 8 p.m. to 4 a.m. Eastern, Sunday through Thursday.

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14:14This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. President Donald Trump is setting expectations ahead of his Alaska summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin now just one day away. The president says the meeting to try to end the war in Ukraine might not be the last. Certain great things can be gained in the first. It's going to be a very important meeting, but it's setting the table for the second meeting. President Trump spoke at the Kennedy Center after a pre-meeting call with European allies and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. We're joined now by Bloomberg News Chief Asia Correspondent Rosalind Matheson.

14:47And Ros, as we continue to set the table for this summit, we're getting some headlines from Russia's TASS news service with the Kremlin saying that the agenda for the meeting between Trump and Putin has been set and the two leaders plan to hold a joint news conference after their talks. How is Russia setting the table for what could come tomorrow in Anchorage? Good morning. Good morning. Well, certainly Vladimir Putin has been clear about some of his goals from the summit. And as you say, part of it is just the optics of having the sit down with Donald Trump. And we're now seeing those reports.

15:20There's going to be a joint press briefing afterwards. So the two leaders standing side by side on Russian soil, and the Russian leader being hosted by Donald Trump as part of that. So optically, that's got to be at least as part of the goal of having the meeting. It's also about obviously setting some parameters on Ukraine. Donald Trump is very keen to have a conversation about how to get towards a ceasefire in the conflict in Ukraine. But also for Vladimir Putin, it's about trying to get sanctions relief from the US. Of course, the threat to penalise Russian oil that's being exported to countries in Asia, you know, China and India, particularly India of late, has been squeezing the Russian economy.

16:03And Vladimir Putin is very keen to get some sort of sense of sanctions relief from the US on it. and to pivot the conversation in a way probably to talk more about the bilateral economic relationship to try and get a sense of understanding from Donald Trump about where he's taking those sanctions and sort of touting the opportunities in a way of greater economic ties as time goes on between the US and Russia. So obviously the overarching element here is Ukraine, but Vladimir Putin probably has some domestic to-dos also that he wants to get on the table with the US leader. And to the point about the idea of economic cooperation, we heard the president yesterday say that there could be very severe consequences for President Putin if he doesn't agree to a ceasefire tomorrow.

16:47We've not seen direct sanctions from the U.S. in recent months. Could sanctions be back on the table? well. Well, Donald Trump has certainly flowed to that and he's looked particularly at secondary sanctions and penalising India above all for importing and continuing to import Russian energy, but he's not been looking to penalise China, which of course is a very big buyer of Russian energy and also talking about the possibility of further direct sanctions on Russia, although the economy is so sanctioned, it's hard to see what else is really on the table from a domestic perspective. But certainly, you know, Vladimir Putin is aware of the pressure that his economy is under, despite being on a war footing and war production.

17:33There are underlying cracks in his economy that are just starting to emerge, and energy is a big part of the puzzle for him there. So he's going to be trying to really couch this conversation about the US-Russia economic relationship, the opportunity there, lifting sanctions, talking about sort of business ties possibly developing. Of course, all of this is possibly many years down the track. And the return of U.S. business to Russia, well, that's going to be something very slow either way. But certainly Vladimir Putin's got a broader church here in the conversation in his mind than just for him the question of Ukraine.

18:09Following the call between the president and European allies, It seems as though the president's focus is on ceasefire as opposed to territorial negotiations. Is there a sense now that the president and European allies are on the same page here? Is there still a risk that there could be some kind of agreement here that puts Ukraine at a disadvantage? You have about a minute left. Well, certainly with Donald Trump and the way he operates, there's always the risk of something happening that's not expected in the minute or has not been prepped for. And that is still the concern, obviously, for Ukraine and Europe, is that out of this meeting, the two leaders sitting down together one-on-one, Putin being a very astute political operator, that somehow in the minute Donald Trump agrees to something or the conversation does move very heavily in the area of territorial concessions from Ukraine without Ukraine being at the conversation.

19:04and the parameters for a ceasefire from Russia and Ukraine are very different. But at the least, perhaps Vladimir Putin will give Donald Trump a sense that he's willing to move the conversation towards a ceasefire and perhaps even a conversation at some point that involves the Ukrainian leader as well. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 99.1 in Washington, Bloomberg 92.9 in Boston, and nationwide on Sirius XM Channel 121.

19:48Plus, listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces. And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

20:23Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person. How you need it. Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. Wise is the smart way to manage the currencies you need around the globe. When you send money abroad using your bank, you could get hit with hidden fees and exchange rate markups.

21:02There's a better way. Try Wise. Wise uses the exchange rate you'd usually find on Google with no unwelcome surprises. Plus, most transfers happen in under 20 seconds, which means your money arrives in less time than you've been listening to me. It's simple and free to sign up when you download the Wise app. Be smart. Get wise. T's and C's apply. Before you sign off, you tuned in for ways to help teams move faster, make sharper decisions, and turn scattered context into work they can use. ChatGPT for Business can help. ChatGPT for Business gives teams a shared workspace with admin controls, permissions, and access to work and codecs in ChatGPT.

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