In short
Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Episode Title
Trump Threatens Chinese Cooking Oil; Shutdown Program Cuts
Episode Overview
In this episode of *Bloomberg Daybreak
US Edition*, hosts Nathan Hager and Karen Moskow discuss the latest developments in US-China trade relations, the ongoing government shutdown, and insights from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy. Key highlights include President Trump's threats against Chinese cooking oil imports, potential cuts to federal programs, and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates.
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Key Topics Discussed
- US-China Trade Tensions
- Cooking Oil Trade Threat:
- President Trump threatens to halt imports of cooking oil from China, framing this as retaliation for China's refusal to purchase American soybeans, which he characterizes as an "economically hostile act."
- The trade relationship continues to be fraught, with both nations preparing for further discussions ahead of a looming deadline for tariffs on Chinese goods.
- Expert Insight: USTR Jameson Greer expresses confidence in potential negotiations easing tensions.
- Government Shutdown and Budget Cuts
- Shutdown Status:
- The government shutdown enters its 15th day, with indications that military personnel will miss paychecks.
- Trump plans to unveil a list of federal programs for potential cuts, directly targeting programs associated with Democratic leadership.
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stresses the need for Republican cooperation to resolve the deadlock and protect federal workers.
- Federal Reserve Outlook
- Monetary Policy Shift:
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals a possible halt to the central bank's balance sheet reduction, a key component of quantitative tightening initiated post-pandemic.
- The current labor market indicators suggest a decline in strength, influencing expectations for an interest rate cut anticipated in the coming month.
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Key Takeaways
- Trade Strategy: The cooking oil threat may seem minor but indicates the broader complexities of US-China trade dynamics, where seemingly small issues can escalate tensions.
- Political Maneuvering: Trump’s tactics during the shutdown suggest a strategic effort to apply pressure on Democrats, illustrating the high-stakes negotiation environment in Washington.
- Monetary Policy Implications: The Fed's potential reversal on balance sheet reduction highlights the adaptive strategies of central banks in response to changing economic indicators.
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Additional Insights
- Market Reactions: Following Powell's comments, market futures show increased optimism regarding potential rate cuts, indicating that investors are closely monitoring the Fed's next moves.
- International Relations: The episode reflects on how domestic policies, especially trade and budgeting, intertwine with international relations, notably US foreign policy towards China and other nations.
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Conclusion This episode captures the intersection of US domestic policy and international trade, underscoring the volatility and interconnectedness of current geopolitical and economic landscapes. With ongoing negotiations and political strategies unfolding, the situation remains dynamic and requires continuous observation.
For more updates and in-depth analyses, listen to *Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition* daily.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute. Capturing value and fixed income is not easy. Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real, lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day. But not Vanguard. At Vanguard, institutional quality isn't a tagline. It's a commitment to your clients. We're talking top-grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200-person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders. These folks live and breathe fixed income. So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at Vanguard.com slash audio.
0:41That's Vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk. Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. The news doesn't stop on the weekends. Context changes constantly. And now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all. Hi, I'm David Gurra. Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg This Weekend. I'm Christina Ruffini. We'll bring you the latest headlines, in-depth analysis, and big interviews. All the stories that hit home on your days off. And I'm Lisa Mateo. Watch and listen to Bloomberg This Weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people, and culture.
1:17On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world. Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists, and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead. Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you. Watch us on Bloomberg Television, listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to the podcast. That's Bloomberg This Weekend, Saturdays and Sundays, starting at 7 a.m. Eastern on February 28th. Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television, radio, and wherever you get your podcasts.
1:57Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, we begin with the latest developments in the trade war. President Donald Trump says he might stop trade in cooking oil with China. The president posted on social media that the U.S. can easily produce it itself and does not need to purchase it from China. That says China plans to impose new export restrictions on rare earth metals. Now, despite the latest flare up, both countries are set to meet for further trade talks ahead of a November 1st deadline for 100 percent U.S.
2:39tariffs on Chinese goods. Bloomberg Balance of Power host Joe Matthew has more from Washington. Guys, I don't know if this is going to be the path to a deal with China. You know, the president is supposed to sit down with Xi Jinping in just a couple of weeks at the APEC summit in Korea. The administration, by way of the Treasury Secretary, is still saying that that meeting is on. And we heard from USTR Greer today saying they even have a time. We haven't seen that publicly, but they have a time to meet. And that has not changed yet. Bloomberg Balance of Power host Joe Matthew, both the president and trade representative Jameson Greer, have expressed confidence that friction with China will ease through negotiations.
3:14Now let's get to the latest on the government shutdown. Nathan, it's day 15 of the spending fight on Capitol Hill, and President Trump is renewing his threat to cut federal programs. He says he'll have a list of priorities headed for the chopping block this Friday. We're closing up programs that are Democrat programs that we wanted to close up or that we never wanted to happen, and now we're closing them up. And we're not going to let them come back. The Democrats are getting killed. President Trump spoke during a meeting with Argentinian President Javier Millay at the White House. Meantime, members of the military are set to miss their first paychecks today.
3:53House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is insisting Republicans need to negotiate on Democrats' health care demands. We also need to make sure that we take care of all of our hardworking federal civil servants, which is why Republicans should be back here in Washington working with us to reopen the government. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke on Capitol Hill. President Trump has directed the Defense Department to divert unspent research funds to pay the troops. House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he has the right to do that without congressional approval. And as the government shutdown lingers on, Karen, Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is criticizing President Trump over his decision to allocate$20 billion in taxpayer funds to Argentina.
4:37Warren spoke on Bloomberg's balance of power. Let me get this straight. Argentina hurts American farmers, and the president of the United States responds by giving$20 billion to Argentina, plus Secretary Besant saying, and a blank check if they need more. That's Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Now, President Trump is suggesting the$20 billion lifeline could be contingent on libertarian leader Javier Malay's success in Argentina's midterm elections. You can catch our full interview with Senator Warren on the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube. Nathan, let's get to the latest now in the Middle East.
5:16The Israeli military now says one of the four bodies handed over by Hamas yesterday is not that of a hostage. It comes as an Israeli military agency also says it would halve the number of trucks allowed to bring humanitarian aid into Gaza over concerns that the militant group was returning the remains more slowly than agreed. Meantime, President Trump demanded that Hamas return the bodies of deceased hostages. President Trump threatened the militant group with retaliation if it does not lay down its arms. We have told them we want disarm and they will disarm. And if they don't disarm, we will disarm them.
5:53And it'll happen quickly and perhaps violently. But they will disarm. Do you understand me? President Trump says the disarmament would have to occur within, quote, a reasonable period of time. Well, Karen, we're watching stocks in France this morning. They're up 2.4%. That's after French Prime Minister Sébastien Le Corneau won the backing of the Socialist Party, boosting his chances of surviving two no-confidence votes set for tomorrow. Also boosting French shares and earnings beat from Paris-based LVMH. The owner of Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior unexpectedly returned to sales growth in the third quarter.
6:29It suggests a slump in luxury demand is easing. And shares of LVMH right now are up nearly 14 percent. And we turn to the markets now, Nathan, where futures are higher on optimism over rate cuts. Yesterday, Fed Chair Jay Powell reinforced bets on a cut later this month given a weakening labor market. For the last few months, we've been able to maintain a restrictive stance because the labor market was still pretty solid. I think the data we got right after the July meeting showed that, which adjusted back all the way through May, showed that the labor market has actually softened pretty considerably and puts us in a situation where the two risks are closer to being in balance.
7:09Fed Chair Jay Powell made the comments yesterday at the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia. The Fed's next rate decision is two weeks from today. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says he will offer to help Zoran Mondani if Mondani becomes the next mayor of New York City. And we get more with Bloomberg's John Tucker. Talk about strange bedfellows. Diamond is head of the biggest U.S. bank. Momdani is the socialist candidate and Democratic frontrunner. Should Momdani win the mayor's race, Diamond says he will offer to help. As he put it, I have to deal with the world I got, you know, not the world I want.
7:44And if he becomes mayor, so be it. Momdani has already held several sit-downs or private phone calls with executives in New York, including Diamond, as part of a charm offensive. Diamond, who previously referred to Momdani as more of a Marxist than a socialist, said it's important for business leaders who are at odds with local officials to get involved and grow up. He also added that it's odd to have the bastion of American capitalism with a socialist getting that job. In New York, I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.
8:15Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning. Good morning, Karen. A group of House Democrats marched into Speaker Mike Johnson's office on Capitol Hill Tuesday afternoon, demanding that he swear in Representative-elect Adelita Grijava, a Democrat from Arizona. Johnson was not there. It comes as the push for a full release of the Epstein files is stalled because of the government shutdown. Grijava would be the final signature needed to force a House floor vote on the release of the Epstein files.
8:50but Republicans have chosen to keep the House out of session, delaying her swearing in. Representative-elect Grieva Hava spoke in front of the Speaker's office. I have not had one word from Speaker Johnson. Not one word. We sent a letter. Now our Attorney General is getting involved because this is taxation without representation. Grieva says if she were a Republican, she would have already been sworn in. MGM Resorts International pulled out of the competition to operate a casino in the New York area due to shifting economic and competitive conditions. Three companies are still in the running to operate casinos in New York.
9:29President Donald Trump posthumously awarded conservative activist Charlie Kirk the nation's highest civilian honor, the Presidential Medal of Freedom. President Trump at the Rose Garden Ceremony. We're here to honor and remember a fearless warrior for liberty, beloved leader who galvanized the next generation like nobody I've ever seen before. Kirk was fatally shot on September 10th while speaking at Utah Valley University on the first stop of his The American Comeback Tour. Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg. Karen.
10:07Thanks, Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. And for that, we bring in John Stashauer. Thanks, Karen. Brilliant starting pitching as lifted the LA Dodgers to a 2-0 lead in the NLCS. The night after Blake Snell went eight innings, allowed only one hit. Yashinobu Yamamoto went nine innings, gave up just three hits. The Dodgers won 5-1 in Milwaukee. They go home up 2-0 in the series. Game three of the ALCS tonight in Seattle. The Mariners lead Toronto two games to none. Edmonton Oilers, a 2-0 shutout of the Rangers, who are the first team ever to get shut out in each of their first three home games to start a season.
10:41That's your Bloomberg Sports Update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this. Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute. Capturing value and fixed income is not easy. Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real, lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day. But not Vanguard. At Vanguard, institutional quality isn't a tagline. It's a commitment to your clients. We're talking top-grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200-person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders.
11:20These folks live and breathe fixed income. So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at Vanguard.com slash audio. That's Vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk. Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. This is Tom Keen inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. It's about making you smarter every business day. I'm Paul Sweeney. We bring you complete coverage of the U.S. market open. We cover stocks, bonds, commodities, even crypto, all the information you need to excel. And I'm Alexis Christophorus.
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12:40Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business App. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. cooking oil is now heating up U.S.-China trade tensions. President Trump's threatening to stop buying it from China because Beijing isn't buying soybeans from America. It's rattling the market, even as U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer saying things will work out between the world's two biggest economies. There's always some level of dramatics to it where they will, you know, if we take measures, you know, little measures here and there, they'll threaten to, you know, bring down, you know, hellfire and things like that.
13:18That was U.S. Trade Rep Jameson Greer on CNBC before the president's latest trade salvo. For more, we're joined by Bloomberg News chief Asia correspondent Rosalind Matheson. And Ros, we've talked before about the U.S. and China positioning ahead of trade talks expected later this month. How did cooking oil get caught in the middle? Good morning. Good morning. Well, yes, it's now moved from shipping to cooking oil, it seems. And Donald Trump, as you were saying, using that to say that he might retaliate for what he sees as Beijing's refusal to buy American soybeans. The interesting thing in all of this is that cooking oil is actually only a very small import for China.
13:58Only a small amount of cooking oil does come in from China to the US in terms of specifically just how much soybeans China has typically imported from the US. So it's a bit of an asymmetrical thing to come at in terms of Donald Trump's comments overnight because, again, soybeans far outweigh whatever the US brings in when it comes to processed food oil. But it's just another sign of how broad and complex these trade tensions are. So we've gone from, you know, rare earths and high tech and chips to shipping to soy and now to cooking oil. And obviously there are other aspects of the trade relationship potentially to come.
14:39And is this, again, simply positioning before a potential meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. We do know from US officials, at least, that the lines of communication are open. I mean, Jamison Greer said that as well, that there was a meeting as recently as Monday between some unnamed US and Chinese officials. So they are at least talking to each other. The question is, in all of this tit for tat that's going on, does either country overstep in a way that puts the other country in a difficult spot and makes a meeting impossible for Trump and Xi to agree to. Do we know anything further, Roz, about what's come out of those talks that the Trump administration has talked about this week, other than the idea that they are still talking?
15:24No, we know very little about those conversations. And again, we don't even know from Jamison Greer, who was involved in that conversation that potentially happened at the start of this week. We also know that the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besson, said that he was expecting to meet the Chinese vice president one more time before the end of the month. Is this about trying to get the foundations for Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to sit in a room and come out with something, either an extension of the trade truce that they've got or something more tangible and lasting? And it seems to be that they're obviously trying to clear the pathway through all these different tension points to get there.
16:04But we have very little sense so far of what exactly those conversations have been like. No, that raises the question then about whether all these threats are just that, threats, or whether we could see something concrete in terms of shifting purchases or even that threat of 100 % tariffs on Chinese imports on November 1st. Is November 1st the next tipping point here? We've got about a minute left. Potentially, and obviously a lot would depend on that meeting and what comes out of it and how much they use their personal rapport with each other to come to an agreement. But, you know, you've got Xi Jinping, who's got a lot at stake at home with his economy, versus Donald Trump, who can be quite impulsive in the minute in announcing things or deciding things.
16:46And we've seen that before. And he can also change his mind very quickly. So that does inject a high level of uncertainty into this, into this meeting. Does Trump just feel in the minute he's not got what he wanted? And so he slaps extra tariffs on. It's very hard to say, But certainly this climate of constant, you know, tit for tat action and threats against each other is not conducive to going into it to a meeting where you're hoping to get some kind of tangible outcome. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m.
17:23Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 99.1 in Washington, Bloomberg 92.9 in Boston, and nationwide on Sirius XM Channel 121. Plus, listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces. And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favourite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow.
18:00And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.
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From the publisher
On today's podcast:
1) President Trump said he might stop trade in cooking oil with China, injecting fresh tensions into the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. Trump on Tuesday cast the potential move as retaliation against Beijing for its refusal to buy American soybeans, which he said “is an Economically Hostile Act” that is purposefully “causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers.” China remains well supplied with the oilseed, largely thanks to South American purchases.
2) President Trump pledged to release a list of federal programs slated for cuts later this week, the White House’s latest threat to slash the federal bureaucracy and put pressure on Democrats to end the impasse over the shutdown. The threat is the latest effort from the White House to make the shutdown — now in its 14th day — as painful as possible for Democrats. It also marks another end-run by the administration around Congress, which determines how federal funds are spent. The White House has already terminated more than 4,000 federal workers and suspended funding for clean energy and transportation programs in Democratic-run states, escalating the standoff with Democrats.
3) Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, an important shift necessary to preserve liquidity in overnight funding markets. The Fed chair also indicated labor-market prospects continue to worsen, a message that supports investors’ expectations for another interest-rate cut this month. Fed officials have been winding down the central bank’s balance sheet since 2022 — a process known as quantitative tightening — reversing trillions of dollars of asset purchases designed to stimulate the economy after the pandemic struck. Earlier this year, the Fed slowed the pace by reducing the amount of bond holdings it lets roll off every month.
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