Trump to Make Call on China Truce; Fed Decision and Mag 7 Earnings Coming

0:00Bloomberg Daybreak U.S. Edition is brought to you by OTC Markets Group. OTC Markets' overnight platform for exchange-listed securities, Moon ATS, provides access to global securities in U.S. dollars from 8 p.m. to 4 a.m. Eastern, Sunday through Thursday. Learn more at otcmarkets.com slash moon. Moon ATS is operated by OTC Link LLC, a FINRA-registered broker-dealer, and is available only through participating broker-dealers. The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work.

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1:28Learn more at thehartford.com slash risk mitigation. Policies provided by Hartford Fire Insurance Company and its property and casualty affiliates, Hartford, Connecticut. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, we begin with the latest on the trade front this morning. The U.S. and China have wrapped up two days of talks in Stockholm, Sweden. The Chinese trade negotiator says they agreed to extend their 90-day tariff truce, but the U.S. side says China may have jumped the gun on that.

2:08Here's Treasury Secretary Scott Besant. The Chinese deputy minister did say that we had agreed on a pause. We have not. Nothing is agreed until we speak with President Trump. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says extending the pause another 90 days could be an option, and that could clear the way for President Trump to visit China in late October and meet with President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, Nathan, the U.S. and India are racing to negotiate a trade deal before this Friday's deadline. President Trump says he may settle on a 20 to 25 percent tariff rate on India, though that isn't final. India's been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country.

2:53President Trump spoke with reporters on board Air Force One on his way back from Scotland. Even if the president follows through on higher tariffs, sources tell Bloomberg News India plans to keep negotiating on a bilateral trade deal by the fall. Karen, we're monitoring a dangerous situation out west. A massive earthquake off Russia's far east has sparked tsunami warnings across the Pacific. Hawaii has already seen four-foot waves. Parts of California and Washington State have started to record tsunami waves as well. Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi is warning residents to stay alert. Pay attention.

3:25This is real, and it's most serious. And if they happen to be watching, we don't have these events very often, but when we do, they are. They're real and they're serious, so we just ask you to pay attention and do what you've been asked to do, and we're all going to hope for the best. Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi is telling people to stay off the beaches and head for higher ground. This quake was a magnitude 8.8 off the Russian coast. That's the strongest since 2011 when a magnitude 9 earthquake off Japan's east coast sparked the tsunami that led to the Fukushima nuclear disaster. So Manhattan now, Nathan, and tighter security and grief are still gripping the financial industry following that deadly shooting in Midtown.

4:03Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us with more. John, good morning. Good morning, Karen. At 345 Park Avenue, a shattered plate glass window now boarded up and bouquets of flowers marked the spot of the worst mass shooting in New York City in a quarter of a century. Mayor Eric Adams surveyed the carnage. The senseless act of violence. As the police commissioner and I walked through the building and saw the blood trails and the videos of the level of violence that I have not witnessed at that level before. Many employees praised how their bosses handled the initial report of a gunman. Kathleen Benotti is one of them.

4:39Our fire and safety director for the building immediately came on and said to shelter in place. Some were too petrified to leave their hiding spots at first. Others would only leave the building at 10 p.m. as police continue to sweep each floor. Blackstone's offices will remain closed this week. It's unclear when they'll reopen. Authorities still trying to find out how the shooter obtained the gun used in the attack, an M4-style rifle. They say his co-worker at a Las Vegas casino purchased the lower receiver. A note from the gunman found in Las Vegas reportedly includes an apology to his parents.

5:15According to ABC, the gunman's father is a retired Los Angeles police officer. In New York, I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. Okay, John, thank you. Let's turn now to markets and the economy. Federal Reserve policymakers are not likely to change their benchmark interest rate today as they wait for more details on how President Trump's tariffs will affect the economy. Bloomberg's Michael McKee has a preview. The outlook for U.S. inflation and growth is murky at best, but just days before the Trump import tax increase goes into effect, companies are offering support for the idea of no Fed rate cut today.

5:49UPS is offering no earnings guidance, and Procter & Gamble says they will be raising prices to account for tariffs. So the question today is, what will Jay say? We may see the first double descent by Fed governors since 1993. will that suggest or will the Fed chair offer support for a September cut or explain what the central bankers would have to see to entertain the possibility? Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio. Okay, Mike, thank you. And join us for our complete coverage of the Fed decision and Jay Powell's news conference on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. It all begins at 1.30 p.m.

6:25Wall Street time on Bloomberg Radio and the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube. Nathan, it's another big day for earnings. with more than 50 companies in the S &P 500 reporting. Mag-7 will once again lead the way with both Microsoft and Meta on the docket. We get a Microsoft preview now with Bloomberg's Tom Busby. Microsoft expected to post a 14 % rise in sales thanks to its cash cow Azure cloud computing unit, which is expected to show a 34 % spike in revenue in just the last three months. Also helping earnings, its partnership with chat GPT maker OpenAI, which is helping Microsoft emerge as a leader in commercializing artificial intelligence.

7:02Investors also eager for an update on his planned CapEx, estimated to be a record$23 billion last quarter, to keep up with rivals. Bloomberg consensus calls for total revenue of$73.89 billion and earnings per share of$3.97. Tom Busby, Bloomberg Radio. All right, Tom, thank you. While big tech's in the spotlight here in the U.S., banks have center stage in Europe when it comes to earnings. Let's go to London, get the latest with Bloomberg's Ewan Potts. Ewan. Nathan and Karen, let's kick off with Europe's most valuable bank. HSBC disappointing investors today as pre-tax profit missed estimates. The London-based lender flagging rising expenses and a$2 billion charge linked to a stake in a Chinese bank.

7:44Over in Switzerland, UBS posting higher than expected profit in the second quarter. Speaking to Bloomberg, the company's CEO said that he won't make the bank smaller to mitigate the impact of future Swiss capital requirements. And shares in Spain's biggest bank lower today after Santander reported an unexpected charge at its Brazilian business. That's overshadowing record profits and a new share buyback. In London, I'm Ewan Potts, Bloomberg Radio. All right, Ewan, thanks. Well, a couple of European carmakers are feeling the pinch of tariffs. Both Mercedes-Benz and Porsche scaled back their profit expectations for the year.

8:18The two German manufacturers flagged the twin pressures of new U.S. tariffs and intensifying competition in China. Back here in the U.S., Karen, shares of Visa are down almost 2 % in early trading. The world's biggest payments network left its earnings outlook for the rest of the fiscal year unchanged. Meanwhile, shares of Starbucks are up 4.5%. The coffee chain registered its first sales gain in China since the end of 2023.

8:47Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning. Good morning, Karen. 170 million Americans are on alert for life-threatening heat. Some of New York's subways are overcome by the 100-degree heat index, with passengers sweltering on platforms. Unrelenting heat is straining the power grid. Yesterday, the New York City subway was hit with massive delays from the power outage. In Pennsylvania, Near Birth Ambulance Deputy Chief Patrick Glenn says his EMTs are seeing an increase in calls for heat-related illnesses.

9:27Just really kind of knowing yourself, making sure you feel right. If you start to feel dizzy, weak, tired, get in a cool place, get some fluids, and relax. EMT Patrick Glenn. President Trump says Jeffrey Epstein stole young women who worked at Mar-a-Lago, including Virginia Giuffre, one of the disgraced financier's most well-known accusers. President Trump claims he banned Epstein from Mar-a-Lago after the incidents. The White House initially said Epstein was banned for acting like a creep. The same thing, you know, sort of a little bit of the same thing. But no, he took people that worked for me, and I told him don't do it anymore, and he did it.

10:05And I said, stay the hell out of here. Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein's former girlfriend, is willing to answer more questions from Congress if granted immunity. She is serving a 20-year sentence in a federal prison. New York City's Public Transportation Agency will delay a planned fare and toll increase to January just as the bus, train, and subway operator terminates its long-standing MetroCard for a tap-and-go payment system. The MTA board is set to vote today on postponing the fare and toll hike. The move comes as some writers recently reported snags where they believe they've been overcharged when using a phone, credit card or Omnicard to enter a turnstile.

10:47Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, Karen. All right, Michael Barr, thank you. Bloomberg Daybreak U.S. Edition is brought to you by OTC Markets Group. Thinking about joining the exploding overnight market space but unsure where to start? Designed to meet the needs of a growing international investor base, OTC Markets' overnight platform for exchange-listed securities, Moon ATS, provides access to global securities in U.S. dollars from 8 p.m. to 4 a.m. Eastern, Sunday through Thursday. Extend your trading day and trade global securities in U.S.

11:21dollars through a FINRA-licensed broker-dealer. In the first half of 2026, over$28.1 billion U.S. dollars traded on Moon ATS. Learn more about Moon ATS. Visit otcmarkets.com slash moon. Moon ATS is operated by OTC Link LLC, a FINRA-registered broker-dealer. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off.

12:06Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM. This is Jenny Garth from 90210MG. HGTV is bringing back the 90s in a big way with Totally 90s House, a brand new renovation competition series that reunites some of your favorite television stars from the era for a showdown unlike anything you've seen before. Let's be honest, the 90s gave us some great things. The music, totally rad. The fashion, so fly. But the home design choices, well, that's a different story. Hosted by Jaleel White, this throwback competition sends two teams of your favorite 90s TV stars across America in search of homes frozen in time.

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13:39Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update brought to you by Flushing Bank. And here's John Stashauer. John, good morning. Good morning, Karen. Yankees off Monday's loss to Tampa Bay at the stadium. Fell behind 3-0. Came back. Cody Bellinger tied the game with a three-run homer, and the Yanks went on to win 7-5, a mixed result night for Anthony Volpe. A first-inning error led to two Tampa Bay runs, and when Volpe struck out in his first at-bat, he heard boos from Yankee fans, but his base hit, fourth inning, snapped a three-off tie, and in the eighth, Volpe belted a long 450-foot home run. Then with two outs in the ninth inning, another Volpe error.

14:15He leads all of baseball with 15, his manager, Zaron Boone. there's there's been some plays where he's probably felt it a little bit um you know believe it or not a lot of us have been in those defensive slump places and um you know you kind of got to get through it especially when you're when you're as capable and talented as he is out there um you know he's going to grow from this learn from it and and come out on the other side and we got to get him help him get it there the yankee win coupled with two losses by toronto though the Blue Jays were so hot. They had won 19 of 23, but now four straight losses swept in a doubleheader in Baltimore.

14:53The Yanks are now four games behind, and the Red Sox trailed by five. Boston won at Minnesota 8-5. The Mets and San Diego lost 7-1, had only four hits. The Padres pulled away with a five-run seventh inning kept by a Manny Machado three-run homer. So back-to-back Met losses since that seven-game win streak. And the Phillies beat the White Sox. Kyle Schwarber hit his 37th homer in the Phillies, half game behind the Mets. Trey Hendrickson does not have the new contract he's looking for, but last year's NFL SAC leader did end his holdout. Reported to Bengals training camp, a brief scare at Giants camp.

15:26Top wide on Malik Nabors left practice with an injured shoulder, but it's not considered serious. John Stashow, Bloomberg Sports, Karen Nathan. Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on SiriusXM, and around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. Two days to go until President Trump's tariff deadline. The U.S. and China are on a different track than the rest of the world, but the president says it's up to him whether it stays on track. After Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's meetings this week with Chinese officials in Sweden.

16:02We had a very good meeting with China. It seems that, I mean, they're going to brief me tomorrow. We'll either approve it or not. But he felt very good about the meeting. That was President Trump on his way back to Washington from Scotland aboard Air Force One. For more, we're joined by Bloomberg News senior editor Bill Ferry. So, Bill, we heard the president say it was a good meeting. Do we have a sense of what came out of that meeting other than some disagreement over whether the tariff pause is going to be extended? Good morning. Yeah, good morning. I mean, it seems like the main agreement is to keep talking.

16:36This was the third round of talks between the U.S. and China. And you're right. There was a little bit of confusion as the meeting wrapped up. The Chinese officials came out and said that the truce that's been in place since basically about April or May would be extended. And then Scott Besant, in his news conference afterwards, said that the Chinese may have gotten ahead of themselves, that there was no decision on the truce until they got a chance to brief the president expected on Wednesday. But the mood was overall fairly positive. Scott Besson even said it was a productive meeting. So the signals seem to be that there's not going to be a snapback to higher tariffs and that the two sides will keep talking.

17:22So no decisions final till Trump announces it. But it did seem like that's where things were headed. Do we have a sense of whether the president would agree to extend the truce just to secure a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping? He said that he's not seeking it, but it seems like he wants to go there. Yeah, I that was an interesting post from the president. He said he's not seeking it, but that he would go if invited. And in fact, he already had been invited. That's certainly playing into the calculus here. I think we've also seen alongside the trade talks, we've seen the U.S. basically blocked Taiwan's president from routing through the United States on his way to Central America.

18:09That Taiwanese president typically does a stopover. This time it was scheduled for New York and the White House or the State Department blocked that. So the trip is now, that trip is now off. But there is a lot of speculation that President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China will try to meet before the end of the year, perhaps October, November time period. And of course, with two days to go for the rest of the world, there's a lot of focus now on India, whether they can reach a trade deal. Very interesting to hear the president say that India could face higher tariff rates than he's agreed to with much of the rest of the world in the frameworks we've seen so far.

18:50Yeah, on his way back from Scotland on Air Force One, he said, you know, India has been a good friend, but they charge more tariffs than almost any other country. And he threw out figures of 20 % to 25 % as potential final tariffs for India. It did just a day ago where the U.S. Trade Representative, Jameson Greer, was saying that both sides needed more time to work on this. India seems to be targeting some sort of an agreement later in the fall. It's clear from what we've seen in the recent weeks that those talks have been very complicated and very in-depth. But 20 to 25 percent may be more than what India is looking for.

19:32So I think there's they're still going to be pushing for for a lower figure that other countries have gotten. In our last minute, Bill, I know you're monitoring the earthquake situation after what happened in Russia overnight. What's the latest on that? Well, just in the last couple hours, some of the tsunami waves, the multiple waves have started rolling in to the west coast of the United States overnight. That's going to continue. This was a huge earthquake, 8.8 off the coast of the Chamkotka Peninsula, and that's the biggest earthquake recorded since 2011. So far, no major damage being reported in places like Hawaii and Alaska, but officials have been warning people to get away from the coastline and stay there until there's an all-clear signal sent out.

20:24This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning starting at 5 a.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg 1130 in New York, Bloomberg 99.1 in Washington, Bloomberg 92.9 in Boston, and nationwide on Sirius XM Channel 121. Plus, listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, now with Apple CarPlay and Android Auto interfaces. And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it, in five minutes or less.

21:04Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

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