Trump Warns Netflix-Warner Deal May Pose Antitrust ‘Problem’, Farm Aid Program Details

0:00Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute. Capturing value and fixed income is not easy. Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real, lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day. But not Vanguard. At Vanguard, institutional quality isn't a tagline. It's a commitment to your clients. We're talking top-grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200-person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders. These folks live and breathe fixed income. So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com slash audio.

0:41That's vanguard.com slash audio. All investing and subject to risk, Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. Donald Trump is rewriting the Washington rulebook and reshaping the global economy. If you're trying to connect the dots behind the headlines, Bloomberg's Trumponomics podcast is here to help. I'm Stephanie Flanders, Head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg. Every week I'll bring you a smart, focused conversation with reporters and experts from Washington, Wall Street and beyond. Listen to new episodes every Wednesday and follow Trumponomics wherever you listen.

1:20Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Lisa Mateo. Here are the top stories we're following today. Lisa, we begin with new developments this morning. On Warner Brothers Discovery, President Trump is flagging concerns over Netflix's planned$72 billion acquisition of the company. The deal is still in its early stages, but it would bring together the world's dominant streaming service with the iconic Hollywood movie studio. Praising Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos, whom he met with recently. President Trump, though, is hinting to reporters that regulators could take issue with the size of the combined entity.

2:02He's done one of the greatest jobs in the history of movies and other things. And he's got a lot of interesting things happening aside from what you're talking about. But it is a big market share. There's no question about it. It could be a problem. President Trump hosted Sarandos at the White House in mid-November when the pair discussed a deal and checking shares of Warner Brothers Discovery in the pre-market. they're down 2%. Well, staying in Washington, Nathan, later today, President Trump, he plans to unveil a long-awaited aid package for farmers. A White House official tells Bloomberg the$12 billion package includes$11 billion in one-time payments under the Agriculture Department's Farmer Bridge Assistance Program.

2:43The move comes with farmers getting more frustrated about China's slow pace of resuming soybean and other agricultural purchases. But U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer says China is holding up its end of the trade agreement with the U.S. The commitments are quite specific. They're about purchasing a certain amount of soybeans, for example, through the rest of this growing season and then each of the next years. These are things that are quantifiable. The data are clear. We've already seen that the Chinese are getting to about a third of the way through their purchase commitment for this growing season.

3:15U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer appeared on Fox News. President Trump is scheduled to unveil the Farm Aid this afternoon at 2 p.m. Wall Street time at an event with crop farmers, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. Ahead of that event, Lisa, Treasury Secretary Besson says the Trump administration is focused on affordability. He spoke yesterday on CBS's Face the Nation. Democrats created scarcity, whether it was in energy or overregulation, that we are now seeing this affordability problem. And And I think next year we're going to move on to prosperity.

3:49Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says he expects the U.S. economy to end the year with 3 % GDP growth. You can catch CBS's Face the Nation Sunday afternoons on Bloomberg Radio. Turning now to geopolitics, Nathan. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, he's doubling down on deadly airstrikes on suspected drug-running boats off the Venezuelan coast. At the Reagan Defense Forum in California over the weekend, Hegseth defended Admiral Frank Bradley for ordering a second strike that killed survivors aboard one vessel on September 2nd. From what I understood then and what I understand now, I fully support that strike.

4:24I would have made the same call myself. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the Pentagon is reviewing video of the attack. He's declining to say whether it will be released to the public. Jim Himes is a top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. He says the video should come to light. I think it's really important that people see what it looks like when the full force of the United States military is turned on two guys who are clinging to a piece of wood and about to go under, just so that they have sort of a visceral feel for what it is that we're doing. Democratic Congressman Jim Hines appeared on CBS's Face the Nation, heard every Sunday on Bloomberg Radio.

4:58Let's turn now, Lisa, to the latest developments on ending the war in Ukraine. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to host Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in London today. The leaders of France and Germany will join the meeting as well. Tony Halpin leads Bloomberg's economic and government coverage of Russia. The Europeans are trying to bolster Ukraine's leverage at this table because they themselves are not there. But at the same time, they want to help Ukraine maintain its positions in the face of what is fairly considerable pressure to agree to a deal. And the U.S. has been in direct negotiations with Ukraine and has been direct negotiations with Russia.

5:34The peace plan that they are talking about originated as a joint U.S.-Russia peace plan. And so the European leaders are trying to ensure that Zelensky isn't pushed into a corner and agrees to a deal that doesn't secure Ukraine's long term security. That's Bloomberg's Tony Halpin. President Trump says he's disappointed in Zelensky's handling of the U.S. proposal to end the war. While staying in Europe, Nathan, J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon says bureaucracy is having a significant impact on the continent's growth prospects. In an interview over the weekend with Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde, Diamond also said a fracturing of the continent could become a major problem for the U.S.

6:12If they fragment, you know, then you can say that, you know, that America first will not be around anymore. It will hurt us more than anybody else because they are a major ally in every single way, including common values, which are really important. And so therefore, I think we should be using our American capability, strength, coercion, democracy, trade, investment to urge them to do what's in their own self-interest. Diamond's comments come at a difficult moment for U.S.-European relations as the two sides find themselves increasingly at odds on issues ranging from Ukraine to trade and regulation.

6:49For the full conversation, head over to the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube. Turning to markets now, Lisa. Futures are mixed this morning ahead of Wednesday's rate decision from the Federal Reserve. And we have a couple of big market calls this morning. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says U.S. equities face a, quote, bullish setup given expectations of rate cuts and the outlook for improving earnings. John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, says the S &P 500 will surge 18 percent in 2026 as earnings per share continue to rise in double digits. and Wall Street research veteran Ed Yardeny is now recommending underweighting the magnificent seven megacab tech stocks versus the rest of the S &P 500.

7:31It's hard to recommend overweighting something that's already quite overweight. I mean, if you just told people just to maintain the current weight of the index, that would still be an overweight position relative to what most people would think would be a diversified portfolio. Ed Yardeny of Yardeny Research which instead recommends investing in financials, industrials, and health care. In company news, Nathan, the Wall Street Journal reporting IBM is in advanced negotiations to acquire data infrastructure firm Confluent for about$11 billion. The paper says a deal which would mark one of IBM's biggest acquisitions in recent years could be announced as early as today.

8:08Shares of Confluent are up 31 % in early trading.

8:14time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in new york and around the world for that we're joined by bloomberg's michael barr good morning michael good morning lisa a pre-trial hearing is scheduled to resume today with a man accused of killing the ceo of united health care a new york judge is considering whether certain pieces of evidence can be used against luigi mangioni during his state trial mangioni's defense attorney said that the police did not read their client his Miranda rights. New images were released over the weekend from the day of Mangione's arrest. Those include a USB stick that he was wearing as a necklace, a December 4th bus ticket from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh, and a to-do list that was found folded up in his pocket.

9:00Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel expects to move to the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire plan soon. Detanyahu says that he would discuss opportunities for peace with President Trump when he meets him later this month. Detanyahu also voiced opposition to a Palestinian state. The purpose of a Palestinian state is to destroy the one and only Jewish state. They already had a state in Gaza, a de facto state, and it was used to try to destroy the one and only Jewish state. The truce between Israel and Amos remains fragile, with both sides accusing the other of violations. The Trump administration has released a new calendar that changes the free entry days for national parks.

9:44It removes Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Juneteenth, both federal holidays, and adding Flag Day, which is not a federal holiday, on June 14th. That just happens to be President Trump's birthday. Pastor, activist and author, Jamal Bryant. Everything that they did in the civil rights community is trying to be erased and dismissed as if it never happened. Pastor Jamal Bryant and other critics say no sitting president has had their birthday declared as a free day in the park. Global News 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg Lisa.

10:22Thanks, Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update. And for that, we bring in John Stashauer. There were some big games in the NFL. The Packers never trailed, beat the Bears 28-21. The Steelers held off the Ravens in Baltimore 27-22. The Jaguars topped the Colts 36-19. In all three cases, the winner now in sole possession of first in their division. Last night, Houston won at Kansas City 20-10. Looks like the Chiefs are going to miss the playoffs. Jeff Kent, named for induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame, has the most home runs ever for a second baseman. Notre Dame got snubbed, didn't make the college football playoff.

10:56That's your Bloomberg Sports Update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this. Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute. Capturing value and fixed income is not easy. Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real. Lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day. But not Vanguard. At Vanguard, institutional quality isn't a tagline. It's a commitment to your clients. We're talking top-grade products across the board of over 80 bond funds, actively managed by a 200-person global squad of sector specialists, analysts, and traders.

11:35These folks live and breathe fixed income. So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at Vanguard.com slash audio. That's Vanguard.com slash audio. All investing and subject to risk, Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. This is Special Agent Regal, Special Agent Bradley Hall. The time is approximately 11.15 a.m. About to start consensual telephone call with Dr. Daiwa Zhang. China's Ministry of State Security is one of the most mysterious and powerful spy agencies in the world. But in 2017, the FBI got inside.

12:34I've never seen that much evidence in my entire career, and I don't think we'll ever see that much evidence again. I now have several terabytes of an MSS officer, no doubt, no question, of his life. And that's a unicorn. This is a story of the inner workings of the MSS and how one man's ambition and mistakes opened its vault of secrets. Listen to The Sixth Bureau from Bloomberg Podcasts starting on February 13th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

13:14Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio. nationwide on Sirius XM and around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg Business App. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. One of the biggest mergers in Hollywood history could be facing some pushback in Washington, D.C. President Trump is raising doubts about Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos and his planned$72 billion takeover of Warner Brothers Discovery. He's got a lot of interesting things happening aside from what you're talking about. But it is a big market share. There's no question about it. It could be a problem. President Trump spoke ahead of the Kennedy Center Honors in the nation's capital.

13:53For more, we're joined by Bloomberg Markets reporter Valerie Teitel. And of course, Valerie, we are very early days into this planned merger. But could we be seeing this deal stopped in its tracks out of the nation's capital? Good morning. Well, look, if we take a look at the market reaction and pre-market, we are seeing Netflix and Warner Brothers reverse some of Friday's moves. So there is a bit of skepticism on this deal now that we heard these comments from President Trump that the size of their market share combined could be a problem. We've seen also bets on the prediction marketplace, Polymarket, which did show a 60 percent chance of the deal closing in 2026 is now all the way down to 25.

14:32So the market is showing some skepticism here that this combined unit between Netflix and Warner Brothers could be something that the regulators could declare as harmful to consumers. The combined unit would have some 450 million users under one streaming giant, and it will face a lengthy Justice Department review. We have heard from U.S. lawmakers on both parties, including Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, already faulting the transaction as harmful to the consumer base. And the European Union regulators are also likely to subject the Netflix proposal to an extensive review. But it does follow some interesting Bloomberg reporting that the co-CEO of Netflix was at the White House back in November, met with President Trump for over an hour to get Trump's blessing on the proposed deal.

15:20And he did leave with the impression that Netflix wouldn't face immediate opposition from the White House. Now, the other thing that could complicate this is the other bidder for Warner Brothers Discovery. That was Paramount Skydance could perhaps do some lobbying efforts to try to disrupt the plan. Now, Paramount Skydance wanted to buy the whole company and regulators are more likely to approve of a Paramount Warner Brothers merger. So still a lot of drama in this merger to play out, but it does seem like there is a hint of skepticism now trading in the markets about this deal closing. Yeah, interesting to hear that Paramount Skydance could potentially be brought back into play here, given the CEO, David Ellison, his fairly close ties to President Trump as well.

16:04I mean, how unusual is it to see this kind of politicization of a merger like this so early in the process? Well, at least one thing we know is that Trump has had this push of deregulation. He has a new head in the FTC and they do have a flavor of allowing companies more activity like this. So I think this does perhaps pose a test to the White House, whether they stand by that commitment to deregulation, whether they would let a deal like this go through. But it is very interesting to see the politics so wrapped up. But in a merger this size, Nathan, you're going to have many regulators involved.

16:42As I mentioned, the European Union could also get involved in this discussion as well. So it goes down to the size of the merger and the massive company it would create with over 400 million users on one streaming giant platform if Netflix were to take Warner Brothers Discovery. In our last minute, let's talk about the broader market here. I think a lot of the focus this morning, probably for the rest of this week, is going to be on the Federal Reserve and the final decision of 2025. Final decision for 2025. And while the markets are wildly predicting the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, we could be in for a whopping number of dissents in the voting.

17:20We've heard from a raft of more hawkish FOMC officials saying they're not comfortable with cutting rates. Five of them have actually expressed concerns in the last month. If they all dissent, it's something that we have not seen in Fed in modern history of the Federal Reserve. A five dissent decision if they go ahead and cut interest rates on Wednesday. So a fractured Fed is the focus. And then the focus is on the week after that, the backlog of data. The November CPI and nonfarm payroll report are still due before Christmas. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

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18:37I'm Nathan Hager. And I'm Lisa Mateo. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

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