In short
Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast Episode Notes
Episode Title
Live Nation Reaches DOJ Settlement in Antitrust Case
Hosts
- Paul Sweeney
- Scarlet Fu
- Alexis Christoforous
Summary
In this episode, the hosts discuss significant developments surrounding Live Nation Entertainment, Novo Nordisk's partnership with Hims & Hers, the impact of geopolitical events on luxury goods, and insights into the U.S. residential housing market.
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Key Discussions
- Live Nation and DOJ Antitrust Settlement
- Guest: Jennifer Rie, Senior Litigation Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
- Key Points:
- Live Nation's settlement with the Department of Justice (DOJ) is currently vague but reportedly includes provisions to allow third-party sellers into parts of Live Nation's ticketing operations.
- Allegations against Live Nation include monopolization through control of 60 out of the 100 top amphitheaters in the U.S.
- The settlement does not require the sale of Ticketmaster, but additional litigation from 40 states may seek to challenge this.
- Skepticism exists regarding whether the settlement will improve consumer experiences in ticket purchasing.
- Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers Collaboration
- Guest: Madison Muller, Health Reporter at Bloomberg News
- Key Points:
- Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers have formed a new partnership to sell obesity drugs, ending previous litigations over deceptive marketing.
- The collaboration aims to address competitive pressures from other companies selling similar products.
- Both companies are facing significant challenges and pressures from regulators and the market.
- Impact of Geopolitical Events on Luxury Goods
- Guest: Deborah Aitken, Luxury Goods Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
- Key Points:
- The ongoing conflict in the Middle East significantly influences the luxury sector, potentially reducing organic growth by 150 basis points for every 10% slowdown in Middle Eastern sales.
- Companies like Hermes and Richemont are expected to perform better due to their diversified markets, while high-end jewelry and luxury goods could see continued demand.
- Spirits, particularly cognacs, are expected to have a slower growth outlook.
- State of the U.S. Residential Housing Market
- Guest: Bess Friedman, CEO at Brown Harris Stevens
- Key Points:
- The residential housing market is currently characterized by volatility and uncertainty due to international conflicts, which may affect mortgage rates and buyer confidence.
- Cash remains a significant advantage in the housing market, with many transactions still occurring in cash, especially in regions like New York City.
- Limited international buyer presence is noted, with domestic relocations being more common.
- There remains a critical shortage of homes, with estimates suggesting the need for more supply to meet demand.
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Insights & Takeaways
- The Live Nation antitrust case reflects ongoing consumer frustration with ticket pricing and access, which may not significantly improve under the current settlement.
- Novo Nordisk's strategic shift to partner with Hims & Hers illustrates the dynamic nature of the pharmaceutical market, especially concerning e-health platforms.
- Luxury goods remain resilient, but geopolitical tensions could dampen growth expectations, particularly in the Middle East.
- The residential housing market continues to be affected by economic uncertainties, with cash transactions dominating, yet new supply remains a critical issue.
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Conclusion This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of major business segments impacted by regulatory changes, market pressures, and global events. The discussions emphasize the importance of adaptation and strategic partnerships in navigating complex market landscapes.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOExploring the Live Nation Settlement
0:45 to 2:10
Discussion about the Live Nation settlement and its implications for the concert industry.
“Transcription by CastingWords Finish the rest.”
Ticketmaster's Future Uncertain
2:10 to 3:20
Analysis of Ticketmaster's status following the DOJ settlement and potential state actions.
“We don't know a lot about this Live Nation settlement, right?”
Public Sentiment on Ticket Prices
3:20 to 4:40
Discussion on how the settlement may or may not affect ticket prices for consumers.
“New York has actually come out and said, this isn't good enough.”
Behavioral Conditions and Compliance
4:40 to 6:20
Examination of Live Nation's past compliance issues and new behavioral conditions set forth.
“It has bipartisan support, you know, consumer support.”
Competitors in the Ticketing Space
6:20 to 7:40
Discussion on competitors like SeatGeek and the challenges they face against Live Nation.
“which is a huge promoter, handles artist tours, said, we'll route our artists around your venue.”
Novo Nordisk and Hims Partnership
9:30 to 14:00
Analysis of the surprising partnership between Novo Nordisk and Hims and Hers.
“Here to break it down is Madison Muller, Bloomberg News health reporter.”
E-Health Market Dynamics
14:00 to 14:37
Learn about the strategic pushes in the e-health sector for better consumer experiences.
“And that was somewhere that where they could really improve things.”
Impact of Middle East Conflict on Luxury Goods
16:33 to 20:47
Understand how the ongoing conflict in the Middle East affects luxury consumer spending.
“So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises.”
Housing Market Trends Amid International Conflicts
23:39 to 28:00
Delve into how international conflicts influence the U.S. housing market dynamics.
“The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works.”
Housing Supply Challenges in Local Markets
28:00 to 29:48
Explore the challenges of housing supply in various local markets and the impact on buyers.
“but where you see tighter supply like places like Palm Beach and Connecticut, that's where buyers are much more challenged.”
Show all 11 chapters
The State of Mortgages and First-Time Buyers
29:48 to 30:58
Discuss the current mortgage landscape and the struggles of first-time homebuyers.
“I'm wondering if banks are going to get a little stingy when it comes to mortgages in the months ahead.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Jennifer Rie:So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business.
0:27Alexis Christoforous:Let's create smarter business. IBM.
1:25Alexis Christoforous:Transcription by CastingWords Finish the rest. Bolts are tight. Now your plans refined. Run a smoother business when you're on the line. Do that with Acrobat. Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern. On Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
2:01Jennifer Rie:Want to bounce off with Live Nation and our next guest, Jennifer Ree, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation Analyst. Jennifer, thanks so much for coming in studio here. We don't know a lot about this Live Nation settlement, right? Maybe we should just start with what do we know? Right. And it's changing by the minute, by the way. I keep seeing new reports with new details, but it looks like at least one part of it is a divestiture. that would be divesting large amphitheaters that are owned by Live Nation. The Department of Justice alleged that Live Nation owned 60 out of the 100 top amphitheaters in the U.S.
2:34Jennifer Rie:And the control over those amphitheaters, which the artists really need for summer tours, desire for summer tours, was part of the problem. Some of the claims that were left in this litigation. So selling some of them opens them up to other promoters.
2:50Alexis Christoforous:okay i guess one big question people had was ticketmaster the fate of ticketmaster and whether that stays with live nation or whether it's spun out or the company is forced to sell that do we have a firm answer as to what happens to ticketmaster well not really according to the
3:07Jennifer Rie:doj settlement it does not have to be sold but not there are 40 states involved as well they are also plaintiffs and they also have the authority to litigate under federal antitrust laws just as the Department of Justice does. And not all of them have settled, according to the news reports. New York has actually come out and said, this isn't good enough. We're going to continue on. So if they continue on with the litigation, they will continue to seek a divestiture order from the judge for Live Nation to sell Ticketmaster. They see that as the only solution to kind of fix a broken concert ticketing system and live concert industry.
3:41Jennifer Rie:I'll tell you, I think it's a long shot. You know, once you get the settlement with the Department of Justice and you kind of lose the weight of the Department of Justice behind you on these antitrust matters, it is difficult for the states to go forward and win, even if they won a jury determination that Live Nation was guilty of illegal monopolization. I'm not so sure that the judge would be willing to stick his neck out and impose what's considered a really drastic remedy generally to force a company to break itself up. So let's play pretend and say the states are not successful with their trials.
4:13Jennifer Rie:Does this DOJ settlement mean anything at all to you and me when we go out to try to buy tickets? I mean, and I've said this, people who listen to the show regularly know I talk about being a family of five. And man, you're taking a small mortgage. It's just like take the whole family to go see a show. So is that going to get any better under this settlement as it stands? I'll tell you that I'm skeptical. And, you know, what you just said is why this case is so politically popular. And this was a little bit surprising because it really has bipartisan interest. It has bipartisan support, you know, consumer support.
4:45Jennifer Rie:Kid Rock was going to come along and he was going to be a witness for the plaintiffs in this case because Live Nation has been under a Department of Justice consent order since 2010. So in other words, since 2010, the way they behave in the marketplace was supposed to be regulated. They were supposed to behave in a certain way, and they've managed to really get around that for years. In fact, during the first Trump administration, the Department of Justice investigated, determined that Live Nation was violating the terms of that order and extended it and sort of bolstered its terms. And now this case came along with the allegation that no Live Nation continues to violate the terms of that order.
5:23And so my skepticism comes from there are new terms here that they're talking about that,
5:28Jennifer Rie:again, are behavioral. I talked about selling the amps, but there are also behavioral conditions. And if Live Nation's been able to get around behavioral conditions since 2010, I'm not sure what's going to stop them now. What about Ticketmaster's competitors?
5:41Alexis Christoforous:Have they done things better? Have they changed the way that they sell tickets or that they allow people to buy and sell tickets?
5:47Jennifer Rie:What's interesting, you ask, because the CEO and founder of SeatGeek was one of the witnesses I heard last week. And SeatGeek started as a secondary ticket seller. They were just a marketplace to bring together people who wanted to sell tickets they couldn't use and buyers. But they're trying to get into what's called primary ticketing, being the first one to ticket an event and really have struggled. And they say they have struggled because of Live Nation, that they have superior technology, that their platform is better, that what they can offer venues is better, but they haven't been able to get those venues signed up because either they have a long-term exclusive agreement to be ticketed by Ticketmaster or because Live Nation, which is a huge promoter, handles artist tours, said, we'll route our artists around your venue.
6:28Jennifer Rie:We won't bring them to your venue if you use some company other than Ticketmaster.
6:31Alexis Christoforous:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
7:01Alexis Christoforous:Retirement accounts, yep. High-yield cash, yes again. They even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools, and customer support that actually helps. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market.
7:31Alexis Christoforous:risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. Deadlines move, plans change, and sometimes opportunities pop up out of nowhere. When you need branded gear fast, 4imprint is ready to deliver. 4imprint offers hundreds of promotional products in their 24-hour category. Everything from custom apparel, bags, and drinkware to writing tools, trade show staples, and high-tech gear. At 4imprint, they're focused on getting the details right, printing your logo with precision, packing your order with care, and shipping it out fast. And it's backed by their 360-degree guarantee. That's 4imprint's promise your order will show up right on time, just the way you planned it.
8:11Alexis Christoforous:That's what it means to be 4imprint certain. So, if you're prepping for a last-minute event or jumping on a big opportunity, you don't have to settle or scramble. With 4imprint, fast, reliable service and peace of mind are built right in. Check out their full 24-hour selection at 4imprint.com. 4imprint. 4certain. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises.
8:36Jennifer Rie:So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM.
9:03Alexis Christoforous:You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
9:18Jennifer Rie:Just a few days ago, Novo Nordisk was suing Hims and Hers because they were selling a cheaper knockoff brand of their best-selling Wagovi blockbuster obesity drug. Well, you know what? Now they're in business once again with Hims and Hers. Here to break it down is Madison Muller, Bloomberg News health reporter. Boy, shares of Hims and Hers up now, I think better than 30%. So Wall Street obviously likes this situation. How are these two companies working together?
9:44Scarlet Fu:Yeah, it's a little bit of a crazy, surprising situation that ends a months long saga between the two companies. They are now pairing up for the second time to allow Novo to sell discounted versions of its weight loss drugs on him's and hers telehealth platform. And people might recall that this actually was the case back in June. The two companies were working together to do something similar, and that sort of fell apart spectacularly when Novo accused Hems of deceptive marketing of these copycat weight loss medications that it was continuing to sell on its platform. And that really sent Hems shares down at the time.
10:21Scarlet Fu:But the two companies since then have traded various barbs. I mean, with Novo suing Hems over selling a copycat version of its blockbuster weight loss pill that recently launched. And so this is definitely a surprise to, I think, a lot of investors out there who had expected this to continue dragging on between the two companies.
10:40Jennifer Rie:So is this what's really driving this strategic partnership, though? Is it e-health, these e-health providers? And if so, sort of connect those dots for us.
10:49Scarlet Fu:Yeah, exactly. I mean, I think on both sides, both companies are under enormous pressure right now. HIMSS mounting regulatory and legal pressure, both with the Novo Nordisk lawsuit that now has been pulled, but also with the FDA saying that it was going to crack down on compounded weight loss drugs. There's a possible DOJ investigation, and they also disclosed during earnings a couple weeks ago that they're under investigation by the SEC. So they have a lot going on themselves and really need a path forward, even though they have other offerings on their platform. Investors really have said that they don't see another similar avenue of growth like weight loss drugs.
11:26Scarlet Fu:Then on the Novo Nordisk side, Novo has really been losing market share to companies like HIMSS that sell these knockoff weight loss drugs, as well as Eli Lilly, which is a massive pharmaceutical company based here in the US. And they have rival weight loss drugs that have become more popular than Novo's. So there's a lot of pressure for both companies on both sides. These e-health platforms, like you said, have been an enormous driver of growth for Lily and for Novo, a lot of patients are seeking out these medications on these online platforms where it's often easier and can be cheaper to get these medications.
11:59Scarlet Fu:And so partnering, both companies have been looking to partner with a lot of these e-health companies from Roe to Weight Watchers to Hims and Hers.
12:08Jennifer Rie:Right. What is Hims and Hers sort of bread and butter,
12:11Scarlet Fu:if you will? Yeah. I mean, for a long time, it was erectile dysfunction and hair loss drugs. And so they really went after this consumer market, consumer drugs that are popular and that maybe patients were embarrassed for whatever reason to go into their doctor and ask for these medications. They wanted a more discreet online sort of service where they can get them. But then when they moved into weight loss drugs, I think two years ago now at this point, that really became what put them on the map for a lot of people. I mean, I still talk to people who weren't really paying attention to what HIMSS was doing until they started selling weight loss drugs.
12:45Scarlet Fu:And that was a massive boon for them over the last couple of years and really a major growth driver. And then when that sort of ended, it became a question mark of sort of what was going to be that next avenue of growth for them.
12:58Jennifer Rie:So Novo has a new CEO, right? Mike, is it Dutestar? Dutestar, yeah. Okay. He was personally involved in these negotiations with HIMS and HERS. What does that sort of tell you about this new CEO? I guess a much more hands-on approach than some others might have.
13:13Scarlet Fu:Yeah, definitely. And the last sort of talks and issues really fell apart under Novo's last CEO. So Mike was kind of looking to bring things back and really, from what we understand, like shepherded this renewed partnership between the two companies. He was very involved, him and the him CEO, Andrew Dudum, spoke directly, worked directly on reigniting this partnership between the two companies. You know, Mike has taken a more aggressive approach than Novo has historically. Novo CEOs have historically because they've really lost out in the U.S. market that they have helped create. And that is the most lucrative weight loss drug market.
13:51Scarlet Fu:And he's looking for aggressive actions to get them back in the game. everything from M &A to sort of the approach that they're taking with these compounding pharmacies and with these e-health companies. And one of the things he has told us that when he took this job several months ago, one of the feedbacks he got from a lot of investors and analysts was that Nova wasn't making the most of this, you know, consumer health e-health market, like in the same way that Lilly was. And that was somewhere that where they could really improve things. So he said that that's been a major push for them, even with sort of refreshing their own consumer health websites and the way that everything looks, just making it a better experience for consumers' patients.
14:31Scarlet Fu:And so that sort of fits in with this same strategy with HIMSS.
14:36Alexis Christoforous:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. Support for the show comes from Public. Lately, it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades, and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth. On Public, you can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts, yep. High yield cash, yes again. They even have direct indexing.
15:11Alexis Christoforous:Public has modern design, powerful tools, and customer support that actually helps. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market. Add paid for by Public Holdings. Brokered services by Public Investing, member FINRA SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, SEC Registered Advisor. Crypto services by ZeroHash. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. deadlines move plans change and sometimes opportunities pop up out of nowhere when you need branded gear fast for imprint is ready to deliver for imprint offers hundreds of promotional products in their 24-hour category everything from custom apparel bags and drink wear to writing tools trade show staples and high-tech gear at for imprint they're focused on getting the details right printing your logo with precision packing your order with care and shipping it out fast.
16:07Alexis Christoforous:And it's backed by their 360-degree guarantee. That's 4imprint's promise your order will show up right on time, just the way you planned it. That's what it means to be 4imprint certain. So, if you're prepping for a last-minute event or jumping on a big opportunity, you don't have to settle or scramble. With 4imprint, fast, reliable service and peace of mind are built right in. Check out their full 24-hour selection at 4imprint.com. for imprint, for certain. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises.
16:40Jennifer Rie:So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise, proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM.
17:08Alexis Christoforous:You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. We want to talk a little bit about some individual sectors. And here I'm really talking about consumer and high-end consumer, luxury consumer. Okay. they are obviously impacted by how people feel when it comes to the conflict in the Middle East and how comfortable people feel about spending in this current environment. There's a lot of uncertainty out there.
Read the full transcript
17:41Alexis Christoforous:What does that mean for companies like LVMH? What does it mean for, you know, the companies behind Cartier? Deborah Aitken is the luxury goods analyst here at Bloomberg Intelligence and joins us now from London. And Deborah, you've crunched the numbers. And you say that this Middle East war will have a quantifiable impact on the luxury goods space, at least what was expected for 2026. That's right.
18:08Scarlet Fu:Yes. So we went through some estimates and some data from third party sources. We started with Altagama, who, having spoken to around 19 Southside analysts, had looked at 2026. And we saw that the highest growth was set to come from Middle East at around 6%, of which 4.5 % from locals and 1.5 % from tourists. And that was the fastest growth in the sector, in the sector which we expected for 26 to grow to 4 % to 5%. So we then started to say, OK, what happens if we see demand coming off in the Middle East locally at around 10 percent? And that gave us about a 50 bps dent for every 10 percent that was coming off.
18:57Scarlet Fu:And given that we get a lot of that high wealth traveling abroad also to spend, we felt they could quite quickly across the year. and dependent on what would happen around the area with around one and a half percent shaved off that four percent overall for the global industry.
19:14Jennifer Rie:Deb, of the luxury names, the luxury retailers globally, is anyone particularly better positioned to sort of weather this storm?
19:25Scarlet Fu:I think we need to think about the biggest global makers and the most high end. So So we know companies like Hermes and Brunella Cushinelli are running and expecting high single-digit to low double-digit growth in 2026. Much of that comes from parts of Asia at the high end, very much from the U.S., parts of Europe and the Middle East. So there's a very good mix there. And then also we could look at names like Richemont, for example, where Cartier is being growing very strongly. And Richemont, incidentally, is one of only two who give away their breakdown in Middle East and Africa. They have 9 % of sales from MEA region, Prada being the other with around 4%, which is where it is on average for the industry overall for Middle East Africa.
20:15Scarlet Fu:But overall, we would expect Rolexes and others to do very well with waiting lists. So high-end jewelry and some of the high-end leather goods or apparel makers, we would think, would do very well. It's quite interesting that into this geopolitical unrest, for Q4, there were some big names coming through with high single-digit or double-digit growth from the Middle East. So if things do continue for a long time, it does knock some of the growth away.
20:46Alexis Christoforous:You mentioned jewelry and you mentioned leather goods. What about spirits? How is that different when it comes to the breakdown, the categories within luxury?
20:57Scarlet Fu:So the only spirit maker that I closely follow is one of my colleagues who covers the high-end spirits. But I would be looking at what would happen within LVMH Group. Their biggest exposures were out of Asia and the U.S. and where they were doing very well again in champagnes, doing better in wines, but spirits, particularly cognacs, were difficult again for 2026. So the growth outlook there wasn't very strong.
21:26Alexis Christoforous:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R &D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S &P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria.
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22:38Alexis Christoforous:All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. Deadlines move, plans change, and sometimes opportunities pop up out of nowhere. When you need branded gear fast, 4imprint is ready to deliver. 4imprint offers hundreds of promotional products in their 24-hour category. Everything from custom apparel, bags, and drinkware to writing tools, trade show staples, and high-tech gear. At 4imprint, they're focused on getting the details right, printing your logo with precision, packing your order with care, and shipping it out fast. And it's backed by their 360-degree guarantee.
23:14Alexis Christoforous:That's 4imprint's promise your order will show up right on time, just the way you planned it. That's what it means to be 4imprint certain. So, if you're prepping for a last-minute event or jumping on a big opportunity, you don't have to settle or scramble. With 4imprint, fast, reliable service and peace of mind are built right in. Check out their full 24-hour selection at 4imprint.com. 4imprint. For certain. The thing about AI for business,
23:42Jennifer Rie:it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions slash repetitive tasks and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM.
24:12Alexis Christoforous:You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. With long-term bond yields, as they go, so go mortgage rates. And so I want to bring in our next guest. She is Bess Friedman, CEO at Brown Harris Stevens, to join us to talk about what's happening in the residential housing market. And Bess, I guess the best way I want to start things off is to kind of take a big step back and consider just how much international conflicts tend to affect the housing market.
24:50Alexis Christoforous:Yes, we know they lead to higher bond yields or they can lead to higher bond yields in this case, which could increase mortgage rates. But what does it mean in terms of demand overall for housing in the U.S.?
25:03Scarlet Fu:Well, good morning. Thank you for having me this morning. You know, I think it's just more volatility and uncertainty. And I think, you know, we've already had sort of a bit of a frozen housing market and some challenges with affordability. And this just creates a little bit more sort of concern for buyers who've been on the sidelines a bit. And so they may hold off, even though we saw rates go down. They're lower than they were the 30-year from a year ago, which is good. But this war is not really great for markets because people don't know what's going to be. And so it's hard to say what the impact will be.
25:44Scarlet Fu:But I think it's going to be slow and steady, and people are watching. And when buyers need to buy and can buy, they do. and in this environment, it's sort of wait and see a little bit.
25:58Jennifer Rie:Is cash still king in the home buying market right now? Because we knew for a long time, there was this trend of people who had the cash were using it. It was really hard for other people to go up against them and win in these bidding wars. Is that still the case or is that starting to pull back a little bit?
26:15Scarlet Fu:I'm still seeing the cash as king. Last year, we saw, especially in places like New York City, where you have discretionary markets, you know, where people are buying their second or third home, you know, cash is king. And we saw more than half the deals last year in New York City were done in cash. And so, yeah, I think that goes a long way, especially because money is more expensive. So if people have the cash, they're using it to buy their homes. So I haven't seen that mitigate at all. I see I think people can afford to and have cash are going to use it versus getting a mortgage.
26:52Alexis Christoforous:And a lot of the people who have the cash tend to be international buyers as well. How present are they in this housing market?
26:59Scarlet Fu:Not seeing a lot of the international buyers as of late. I see a lot of domestic people moving from within states, you know, like New York to Texas, New York to Florida, that sort of thing. But I don't see a huge international presence.
27:14Jennifer Rie:When you look at affordability across the map of the U.S., where does the buyer get the most value for their money at the moment?
27:24Scarlet Fu:I mean, it's really hard to say. I mean, there's certain pockets and areas, you know, in different places of the United States where there are good, you know, deals, where there's ample supply. But, you know, there's certain parts of New York, even New York City, where there's decent supply and people can negotiate and really get something that makes sense, where the price per square foot is really a good value. Parts of Brooklyn, there's parts of upstate New York and Florida, there's different areas. It really depends on someone's circumstances and what they can afford. but where you see tighter supply like places like Palm Beach and Connecticut, that's where buyers are much more challenged.
28:12Scarlet Fu:But there's certain areas like, you know, in California and different areas where there is decent, there's a decent amount of supply. It just really depends because real estate is so local and it depends on someone's circumstances and what they can afford.
28:28Alexis Christoforous:Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one town in one state will be completely different from another town in the same state. What does inventory look like when it comes to existing homes versus newly new construction?
28:42Scarlet Fu:You know, you guys probably have read this stat that we have a shortage of homes in the United States of roughly 4 million, give or take. And we have a real challenge and that we need to get more supply. So, you know, builders are, you know, not as quick to build today as they were. And so we're not seeing the same incentives to build. We have challenges with zoning. And the people that own homes already are taking their time to sell as well because they have locked in rates that are lower and therefore they don't want to list and sell. So we have a challenge in both areas. And so, you know, we're trying to do things like, as you guys are probably aware of City of Yes, where that was able to, we're able to get something like 80 ,000 new units into the housing market.
29:32Scarlet Fu:We need more legislation like that so that we can get, you know, more supply into the market. So new home sales are, you know, new builder sales are slower. But, you know, it's sort of a challenge in both arenas. And the resale market and in the new home market.
29:48Jennifer Rie:I'm wondering if banks are going to get a little stingy when it comes to mortgages in the months ahead. And part of that I'm wondering is, might that be a knockoff effect of the cracks we're seeing in the private credit market? Are there any signs out there that make you think it's going to be harder for folks to get a mortgage in the coming months?
30:07Scarlet Fu:I haven't seen anything in particular, but it's been somewhat slow. If you talk to mortgage professionals, they'll tell you that people, you know, are taking their time. They're not, you know, jumping into the housing market in the way that they were there. There's a little bit more refinancing right now, but I'm not seeing anything via restrictions that are prohibiting people. It's more of, you know, people feel they can't afford to buy their first time home. The stat was something like first time homebuyers are now roughly 40 years old when And they used to be 28 years old, just, you know, a little more than 10 years ago.
30:44Scarlet Fu:So people have been priced out of the American dream, as they say. And so hopefully we can come up with new incentives and ways for people to be able to get back into the housing market. Things like CIDIBS, good legislation, upzoning, all those things. We need more supply. That's really the biggest issue. You know, every article you read from economists, from law professors, they talk about the fact that we just we need more supply and we have to put more supply in the market. freezing rents, those sorts of things certainly do not help the market.
31:15Alexis Christoforous:This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 10 a.m. to noon Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
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Market news and in-depth company research.
Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Scarlet Fu and Alexis Christoforous
-Jennifer Rie, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation Analyst, discusses Live Nation Entertainment and its Ticketmaster subsidiary reaching a settlement with federal antitrust authorities, according to the Justice Department. The agreement was announced with no details provided, but it would reportedly open parts of Live Nation's ticketing arm to third-party sellers and make it easier for other promoters to put on shows at amphitheaters that Live Nation controls.
-Madison Muller, Bloomberg News Health Reporter, discusses Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers Health working together to sell obesity drugs, including Ozempic and Wegovy, on the Hims platform. Hims will no longer advertise its copies of the Novo medicines and will only sell compounded versions of Wegovy and Ozempic if a doctor deems them necessary for a patient.
-Deborah Aitken, Bloomberg Intelligence Luxury Goods Analyst, discusses the impact of the war in the Middle East on the luxury sector. According to Bloomberg Intelligence: Luxury-goods sector global 2026 organic growth could fall 150 bps for every 10% slowdown in Middle East sales and 1% elsewhere, if the US-Israeli war on Iran is prolonged.
-Bess Freedman, Chief Executive Officer at Brown Harris Stevens, discusses the latest in the residential housing market. According to Bess, geopolitical instability always introduces caution into financial markets, and real estate is no exception. That said, New York has historically been viewed as a safe haven during global uncertainty. We often see capital move toward stability and prime U.S. real estate is considered a stable asset class.
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