What The Bond Selloff Means For Your Wallet & Simplifying Finance For Your Family

23:05Well, we have a strategy to receive our citizens when they are returned from the United States. It's called Mexico Te Abraza. And we provide access to social programs. We provide basic resources so they can reintegrate to Mexico and they can get jobs. They can get access to health care. and so far I think we've been successful in receiving our Mexican fellows, you know, as what they are, part of our country. There are the Mexican fellows, as you put it. There are also these third country deportations as well, thousands of people not from Mexico being sent there. And I'm curious, do you welcome that, these third country deportations?

23:45Well, there is a number of people that are rejected at the border in the United States and out of humanitarian grounds, we have received some of these individuals. And we provide them with an opportunity to return to their countries of origin or in cases where they require protection in Mexico, we offer them pathways as well. Give us an update on trade negotiations. We had Jameson Greer, the U.S. trade representative here at the Council on Foreign Relations, saying the trade deficit is exploding, in his words. How close are those negotiations as you see them? Well, I'm always cautiously optimistic.

24:23We continue to have constructive conversations. We continue to have positive engagements. We don't have yet an agreement. Obviously, we're talking about the different 232 tariffs that have been implemented, particularly the car industry and the steel sector are of worry for Mexico. We continue to talk about what the U.S. describes as non-tariff barriers. I think we've made a lot of progress, and hopefully we will get to an agreement in the not-so-distant future. Likely to see reductions on steel and car tariffs, do you think? Well, that's our hope. Optimistic still? Again, cautiously optimistic.

25:06You studied at the University of Chicago. Yes, there was political theory with Martha Nussbaum and the like. Also spent a lot of time with David Axelrod, so you understand U.S. politics. Given that, I'm curious how you think about the timeline the U.S. is operating under right now, the administration is operating under with the midterm elections here many weeks away. Do you see that as a forcing mechanism or something that's shaping conversations about trade in particular? Well, you know, we try to be very careful about not getting ourselves entangled with U.S. politics. What I can tell you is that we're obviously watching the elections like everybody else, everybody else, and that we will continue to engage with the U.S.

25:49before and after, because that is the responsibility of any government that shares such a big border, that shares so many interests, including the trade that you just mentioned. USMCA not renewed with the rubber stamps. These negotiations are ongoing. What would it mean for North America were there to be a deal, say, between Mexico and the United States, but not one with Canada, not one between the U.S. and Canada? Well, I mean, the framework of the USMCA continues to be trilateral. There are some aspects that will need to be discussed trilaterally. But of course, there are issues that are bilateral.

26:21There have always been aspects of the USMCA, previously the NAFTA, that were bilateral in their nature. And it's natural for the countries to have also bilateral engagement and to reach some agreements in that manner. A few questions about Asia, if I could. You've been shuttling around New York, but you also went back to Mexico. There was a state visit by South Korea's leadership. How do you assess the prospect of a Mexico-South Korea trade deal? Well, I don't think we will get to a free trade agreement. We're looking more at different agreements that show the complementarities between the economies.

26:58Of course, the conversations will continue to see where we end. But in the meantime, what we are deepening is our cooperation in several different areas, including science and technology, artificial intelligence, obviously the different investments of the Korean companies that are in Mexico, including also Korean culture, K-pop, that is of great interest for a lot of people in Mexico. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Fourth largest market for K-pop. So we're exploring the opening of a K-pop or K-Culture Center in Mexico City and the opening of a Mexican culture center in South Korea. How about that? It's going to be interesting.

27:40Our focus here so much this week is on the U.S.-China relationship, and I'm curious how Mexico's tack toward China has changed under this administration. Well, obviously, we have had throughout the decades a friendly political relation with China. We intend to keep it that way. We have an ongoing dialogue with the Chinese government. We also have obviously an interest as the rest of the world in looking at the relation between the US and China going in a positive direction. So we expect these conversations to go well, to have positive results. And when it comes to trade, I mean, our focus right now is Plan Mexico, which is centered in bringing back to Mexico supply chains that have left over the years and to fostering greater added value in the supply chains that we already have in Mexico.

28:42We are days away from an election in Brazil. Were President Lula to lose his bid for re-election, how would that change your country's relationship with Brazil? Well, as with the rest of Latin America, we continue to have dialogue with all the governments in the region. We will see what's the result in Brazil. We have an excellent relation with the government of President Lula. I was just in Brazil meeting with him and his team. So let's wait and see the result of the election. I'll close with a question just about changes in Latin America broadly. We've seen this shift to the right. And I'm curious how that move has shaped your relationship with other countries in the region, how it continues to shape them.

29:24We're trying to find pragmatic areas of cooperation with different governments of the region. Of course, not all of us think alike. But we can find areas like public health, science, and trade, where we can find space to continue working together, even though we are not aligned necessarily politically. Very good to speak to you. Thank you very much. Thank you, David. That's the Point of Fear, Secretary of Mexico, Roberto Velasco, joining me here at the United Nations. Back to you. David Gurra, thank you so much. That from the United Nations, Rose Garden, overlooking the East River as well. It is Bloomberg money.

30:03And what we're trying to do here within the daily Bloomberg grind of sophisticated equity bond currency commodity analysis is find somebody who at Carnegie Mellon Tepper took stochastic calculus for finance, survived Brownian motion, and Bruno DePierre's Ito's Lemma, but can talk about personal finance, retirement. There's only one guy that can do that. Jeffrey Rosenberg joins us from BlackRock today. How do you simplify this nuts finance world we're in right now? How do you bring it down for mom, dad, your kids? Well, the big question, Scarlett and I were talking about this before. You know, bonds have made it into the regular media and people are wondering what's going on and is the bond market freaking out?

30:51And, you know, a very simple way of kind of understanding what's going on in interest rates is interest rates reflect the marginal cost of capital. There's opportunity costs associated with them. And what we're seeing in the market is a reflection of a lot of demands for capital. Right. We have growth that's accelerating. We have capital expenditures from the AI investment that are accelerating. We have record debt and deficits. So we have treasury indebtedness. All of this on top of our regular amount of corporate bond financing, mortgage-backed security financing, refinancing activity. And so this competition for capital is a big reason why we've seen this step function.

31:31Is it a permanent shift within our personal finance? Do we adjust? Scarlett's too young to remember this. But Jeff, do we have to adjust back to what we knew, a higher interest rate regime? Yeah, we do. This is a structural change. And I think you really have to sort of associate the structural change with a longer history, right? It's not the thing we got used to for a long time, which was zero interest rates and QE. The post-GFC era lasted 10, 15 years, and it gave us very low mortgage rates. It gave us incredible housing price gains. It gave us incredible private equity gains. Everything that was fueled by debt did really well in that zero interest rate environment.

32:13And we're clearly out of that zero interest rate environment. It's a higher real interest rate environment. That was the argument before real interest rate. What's the opportunity cost of capital? And a higher inflationary environment. Let me bring up this morning, Moshe, so I'll jump into this with Jeffrey Rosenberg. This is Rick Reeder. He was on the short list to be the chairman of the Federal Reserve System. I believe still works at BlackRock right now. The next phase markets have benefited from a narrow set of powerful themes. Next phase is likely to require greater precision and our risk is allocated and where opportunities are sourced.

32:44I look at the yield curve and the five year yield now gives you five percent. It's only the two year and the three year that's below five percent. So it's a good time to be a saver once again. And if you have a traditional pension plan, it's also good. But with higher yields, do we now say, OK, the 60-40 portfolio, oh, that works again? So you're really spot on to highlight both sides of this, right? The liability side, the mortgages, that's a little painful. But the opportunity side on the investment side is better. I don't think you can conclude 60-40 is back because there's another whole issue with bonds, which is how do they perform with equities?

33:20What's the relationship? And that relationship used to be very powerfully diversifying. We had an environment where bonds would reliably go up whenever there was a challenge to equities. That was an environment when we had too little inflation. So that's over. We're five years into too much inflation. When you have too much inflation, bonds aren't really a hedge anymore. They're good for income, as you pointed out, and that's the way to think about them. But for diversification, we're going to have to think about broadening our diversifier set away from just thinking about the traditional 60-40.

33:52We talk about it 50-30-20. And so what's that 20? It's alternatives and different forms of diversification to add into the portfolio mix. All right. So we look also at the bond sell-off that's taking place in the U.S. And we talk about it like it's the end of the world. Is the bond market freaking out? But it's not. I mean, because this is a global phenomenon. You see this in Japan. You see this in Western Europe. How much should we focus on the U.S.'s fiscal problems driving bond yields higher when it feels like every developed country has the same problem? Yeah, I would say not overly focus on the fiscal issue.

34:26The fiscal issue is real. Interest payments are higher. Debt outstanding is higher. But it's part of a broader story. A simple way to think about that, and I'm glad you brought up the global perspective. Globally, what we've seen is an increase this year in nominal GDP forecasts. My friend, colleague and mentor Tom Parker points this out and will be writing about this shortly. If you look at global average and GDP, nominal GDP. So what does that mean? It means take the real rate of activity and add the rate of inflation. That's basically like current price level of economic growth. What were the changes this year globally on average?

35:02an increase of about 50 basis points, half a percentage point, relative to forecasts at the beginning of the year. That matches almost exactly the average global bond increase. So global bond rates, they track nominal activity. So this isn't the bond market freaking out. This is the bond market recognizing that, hey, growth is higher in nominal terms. But a huge body of people who aren't sophisticated go, okay, it's a roaring, it's a boom. Nominal GDP is up. Do you just presume, Jeff, that for the average guy out there with a retirement plan, the party, the punch bowl ends, the party ends and nominal GDP comes out down and we are harmed in our personal finance?

35:43Well, OK, so in a in a shock scenario where nominal GDP comes down, it's coming down because there's disinflation. It's coming down because real growth is going down. That's a recession scenario. OK, but away from that, away from that, if it comes down, to a lower level depends on whether that's real or inflation. Right now, the hope is - What's your bet on that? It'll start with inflation. That's the expectation. If and when we stop the geopolitical transference into inflation from oil prices. If we can get through that, we can see inflation come back down. Two and a half, 2.6 % from 3.3, 3.2.

36:22That will bring nominal GDP down, and that will help to take the edge off of what we've seen in - You're too young. You're too young. I remember the raging debate over actuarial assumption. My first question of Bloomberg was to Rick Wagoner at Generous Motors about the shift in their pension obligations. Are we so out of whack, Jeffrey Rosenberg, that we're going to have to change our so-called actuarial assumption to a higher regime? And that upsets our retirement. It upsets our wealth management. No, I mean, those adjustments are happening in real time. they happen as the rates go higher. And it's asset liability matching.

37:00So two things are happening. One, the liability actually goes down when that happens because you're discounting those future payments by a higher interest rate. And two, you're more able to defies, that is, kind of immunize that liability at a higher interest rate environment. The problem on the pension side isn't the 5 % interest rates. The problem was the 0 % interest rate. That was the problem when we were looking at pension deficits because you were blowing out the liability. and you didn't have income-oriented fixed-income instruments that could help you to offset that liability. So it's actually a much better environment from that asset liability.

37:35This is what Yardani says in others. John writing at Bring Capitals, it's the same thing. We should celebrate that we're back to a normal yield within our wealth management. Because post-GFC, it was so abnormal for so long. But people think in the short term and people think based on what they know. We know that this White House is not like higher borrowing costs. Scott Besson, the Treasury Secretary, has tried to do a number of things. What's left at his disposal? I mean, if he were to intervene in some way, does government intervention work to lower bond yields? Not without a real change in the fundamentals.

38:07You can do some things. There are some bigger things that can be done, but it requires the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. We've seen that, right? We've seen the impact of quantitative easing. And you can implement very powerful policies. We've seen those policies happen in our past where the government decides it wants a certain kind of interest rate. That was the financial repression era. No one is really expecting that kind of thing. But you ask the question, what could be done? But that doesn't necessarily mean you can solve the ultimate problem of how much debt deficits that you have. How you can do that over the long run is by raising nominal GDP relative to your borrowing rate and relative to your change in your rate of borrowing, which is your deficits.

38:50Those take real fiscal changes that we haven't really seen the political ability to implement. And so we're going to have to price the anticipation that there's going to be a permanently higher level of debt and deficits. That's going to increase the term premium and the cost of finance. My takeaway from this is buy the three year CD. Buy the five year note, get your five percent. That used to be the old answer. Jeff Rosenberg. Thank you so much. Jeff Rosenberg of BlackRock. Coming up on Bloomberg Money, we've got Barry Ritholtz, chairman and CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, talking about how Americans are generating their wealth right now.

39:27This is Bloomberg Money. Jeffrey, thank you. Great, guys. Thank you. That was really helpful. Hope so. You're listening to Bloomberg Money. Stay with us with more to come after this. Some people treat ChatGPT like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done. ChatGPT Work is a new way of working in ChatGPT that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed, and turn a goal into finished work. It's designed to help you move from a chaotic starting point to a reviewable first version. So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can just become something useful.

40:13Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChachiBT.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans. At Edward Jones, we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are, with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters, so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC.

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41:59Yes, the fish are alive. Somebody emailed me and said, was it a prop and fake fish? No, no, they're real. They're real. There used to be baby sharks in there, too. Yeah, the famous Aquaria of Michael Bloomberg. here in all of our offices. Aquaria because that's plural. This is a joy. I need you to focus. There's a guy named Ed Hyman who basically invented market economics with a guy named Alan Greenspan. Ed Hyman is founder of Evercore ISI, one of my heroes. Good morning, Ed. And this is what he says. This is a unique book, maybe the best I've ever read, and I've read a lot. Nothing else needs to be said about Barry Ritholtz, chairman, CIO, entrepreneur, Ritholtz Wealth Management.

42:41He has a number of properties, including Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio, but he has a spectacular book. I'm not going to bore you with why it's so good. All you need to know, it tells you what not to do. What's the next step for the book? You came out with a beach reading this summer. His book has an oomph to it right now. What's the next thing? We'll do something fun with video, finding clever ways to illustrate some of the charts and tables and making them more interesting, more accessible. Let's look at it right now. I want to bring this in. This is Ritholtz, just classic Ritholtz here and how not to invest.

43:20Tiny errors, epic fails and everything in between how to avoid the avoidable errors investors are making in 2026 in September. What are we doing wrong right now? What do we need to avoid? So I think people, and it really depends on who you are, where you sit, what your portfolio is like, where you are. People are looking at the bond market and drawing all sorts of interesting extrapolations. There's a little bit of panic, not a whole lot. Oh, my God, what does this mean? Is this the war? Is this the tariffs? Is this inflation? What's going on? Some of that certainly is a factor. But when I look at this market and I look at the history of interest rates going back 50, 60 years, this seems to be after 25 years of ZERP and QE and zero interest rate.

44:12Seems like we're kind of normalizing. You go back to the 80s and 90s, people recognize that a 7 percent mortgage was fairly typical. your prior guest Jeff Rosenberg implied we really didn't know how good we had it when rates were zero mortgages were three percent and it was free to borrow and so this it means that era is coming to an end and we're shifting from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus how related to the book don't panic about this recognize it for what it is and look at your portfolio and consider, do you need to make a long-term shift in your equity exposure? If you're looking for tax-free yield, consider muni bonds.

45:00My New York state muni bond portfolio that I'm an investor in, 4.5 % tax-free yield. That's the taxable equivalent of just about 8%. If I would have told someone five years ago, hey, I could get you AA rated 8 % yield, you know, their heads would have exploded. It's been so long before bonds paid you to sit and wait. Okay. So maximizing your investments, maximizing your savings, that's certainly something everyone wants to do. But before you can get there, you have to have the money to be able to invest in all of that. And you've been looking into how Americans generate their wealth, how Americans create their wealth.

45:42And the answer is not by working at a company and getting a W-2. You can do well, but you can't generate a lot of wealth. Right. The the the new book, The Everyday Millionaire, The Everywhere Millionaire, talks about and this is very much all exercise and confirmation bias, talks about how we really misunderstand where wealth comes from in America. We think and the media focuses obsessively on tech founders and CEOs. But the average wealthy person in America, somewhere around the top four or five percent, most of them don't work for public companies. Most of them aren't tech founders. They tend to be ordinary people running regular businesses that they have ownership of.

46:30Own, don't earn. And things like dental practices, HVAC, auto dealers, things that you see in your everyday life that you encounter that you probably don't realize are putting these folks in the top 4%, which is about$25 million net worth, or somewhere around the top 10%, which is about$5 million liquid net worth. I can do a Bloomberg Money Audible with Barry Ritholtz. When the Knicks were in the tank, he was their only loyal fan. I think there's also someone named Spike Lee, too. Spike Lee and Barry Ritholtz as well. I look at a repeat in the NBA, and I'm thinking of Jalen with his small business.

47:16Jalen Brunson is building out all of this, you know, the athlete thing and all that. How hard is it to repeat? I mean, they have a target on their back, right? Especially in the modern era where it seems that key players move around a little more frequently than they did back in the day. That's number one. Plus, after you win, everybody says, OK, what do we have to do to get past last year's championship? Look at how all the moves that were made when Golden State Warriors were on their tear. The same with the Lakers. Everybody kind of rejiggers in favor of that. Are you going to be in the opening night?

47:54I'm not going to be there opening night, but I will be there about eight seats away from Mike on the floor. Yeah, but come on. He's on the long side. I'm on the short side. Well, OK, that's fine. You know, you didn't you didn't say Mr. Bloomberg when the Nick crashed into him. Where were you? I was watching at home. I'm like, oh, he's going to feel that tomorrow. Can I just I want to pause here, folks. There's been four hundred and twenty two Bloomberg money wealth books over 40 years. There's a thing called a type one construct and a type two. All you need to know on a Friday afternoon is Barry Ritholtz has the single best type two construct wealth management book that exists.

48:37You can't do this unless you think about the word not. What to avoid, what not to do in investment. It's a jewel. Throw it at your bratty kids and say, shut up and read it. Barry Ritholtz. We look for the movies. DiCaprio playing Ritholtz. I don't think so. Barry Ritholtz, thank you so much. Ritholtz Wealth Management here today. We've got much more coming up. A really special side. I think, is it Taylor going to appear? Is it Tay-Tay? I think it's like a Taylor day, I think. It may very well be. Well, Christina Ruffini is going to join us next, so we're going to talk a little bit about it. We're going to look ahead to this weekend, because there is some new music videos from Ms.

49:21Swift, her first since getting married. This is Bloomberg Money. You're listening to Bloomberg Money. Stay with us with more to come after this. Some people treat ChatGPT like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done. ChatGPT Work is a new way of working in ChatGPT that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed, and turn a goal into finished work. It's designed to help you move from a chaotic starting point to a reviewable first version. So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can just become something useful.

50:05Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans. at Edward Jones we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest it's also taking care of what gives your life meaning that's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward the key to being rich is knowing what counts let's find your rich together Edward Jones member SIPC This podcast is brought to you by Navy Federal Credit Union.

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51:50Bloomberg Money, Tom King, and Scarlet Fu, an eventful day. Thank you for being with us as we did some international relations there. Thank you, David Gura, as well. I mean, it's Friday. We have to look forward to the weekend. Absolutely. And so here to help us look forward to the weekend is Christina Ruffini. She is Bloomberg This Weekend's host. You guys air every Saturday and Sunday, 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. We are here. We're doing everything. We're going to recap of the U.N. We're going to look forward towards these Middle East negotiations, what's going on. We're going to talk to you about, we have a fun story about how teeny, teeny, tiny hotels are becoming really popular.

52:22People don't want to deal with taking out the trash in their Airbnb, but they want some hotel services without being in a behemoth resort. These micro hotels are becoming a popular. That was the thing in Japan with the capsule hotels. So this is not small rooms. This is a small number of rooms, like three and four rooms at somebody's really fancy villa that they're now letting out and having a super luxury experience. but you also get to be there with some other people. And again, people are moving away from Airbnbs because of all the drama. Everything seems to be managed now, including Taylor Swift's latest.

52:53I mean, it's incredibly managed exercise. You're an hour ago. Well, anything she does has to be managed because whatever she does has such a big impact. You used to drop a record or drop this or drop that, and that's over. Well, she's revealing a video at the MTV VMAs, the Video Music Awards, but everyone just calls it VMAs. I don't even know how you watch the MAs these days. I don't know, but I did see the video is going to have Colin Farrell and Dakota Johnson in it. And, you know, I'm kind of Taylor Swift agnostic, but I do like Colin Farrell. I would I would watch him read the phone. That's the trailer, by the way.

53:27I will watch this video. I will watch this video. This looks like a movie. Patient Zero is a new song. Patient Zero is a new song. You have you have Taylor Swift fans in your household. I sat up on our food court. I listened to it at full volume on my fancy iPhone. What did you think? I really like it. I think that what she did during COVID was absolutely brilliant. And, you know, she's grounded out and done it. I'm just waiting for wedding photographs. I mean, you're the celebrity lodestone here. You know, what we did get was photographs of people attending the wedding and what they wore. We didn't get any photographs released from her wedding itself.

54:00Have you seen any? No. And I don't, again, I don't care about the wedding, but I would like to see the fashion. I would like to see the dress. I admire that they've managed to keep that locked down. I'm sure many NDAs were signed. When has that ever stopped anyone before? Or you can bring it over into Bloomberg this weekend. I mean, we can make, you know, it's Taylor extravaganza this weekend. That's all there is to it. There it is. I think David Gurra is like a low-key Swifty. I know he has Swifty's in his house. That's breaking news. David's useless on Taylor Swift. He's waiting for Taylor Swift bluegrass.

54:29I mean, he got folklore. Was that not close enough? No, that was not close enough for David Gurra. Okay. Christina, thank you. Thank you both. Christina Ruffini, of course, be sure to catch Bloomberg this weekend every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at 7 a.m. Eastern time. So the VMAs are happening this weekend. Saturday Night Live also begins its new season this weekend. Jalen Brunson is hosting. Jalen's hosting it. Oh, my word. Destination television. I'm going to straighten my bow tie after an hour of Bloomberg Money. Thank you to our team for all of the effort.

55:05This is the Bloomberg Money Podcast, bringing you a smart look at the forces shaping your financial life. I'm Tom Keen with Scarlet Fu. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV every Friday at noon Wall Street time. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen. and is always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

55:38At Edward Jones, we believe rich is more than caring about the latest and greatest. It's also taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are with personalized financial strategies that help protect what matters so you can preserve your progress while creating a path forward. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth, and Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most, a resilient, innovative ecosystem, Diverse communities that attract top talent and a quality of life that supports work-life balance.

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