Tech Traders Shrug Off Maduro Ouster

0:00Hello, I'm Stephen Carroll. I'm in Brussels where many of Europe's biggest decisions get made. And I'm Caroline Hepker in London with the hosts of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. We're up early every weekday keeping an eye on what's happening across Europe and around the world. We do it early so the news is fresh, not recycled and so you know what actually matters as the day gets going. From Brussels, I'm following the politics, policy and the people shaping the European Union right now. And from London, I'm looking at what all that means for markets, money and the wider economy. We've got reporters across Europe and around the globe feeding in as stories break So whether it's geopolitics, energy, tech or markets, you're hearing it while it happens It's smart, calm and to the point And it fits into your morning You can find new episodes of the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast by 7am in Dublin or 8am in Brussels, Berlin and Paris On Apple, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts

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1:11Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco. This is Bloomberg Tech coming up. The AI trade roaring back to kick off 2026. Tech stocks in the green. We analyze the optimism. Plus Tesla's China factory shipments, they rise in December but still drop in 2025. What that says about global EV demand and what to expect from CES this year. We'll go live to Las Vegas to give you a preview of key conversations across our network. But first, we digest what the markets are digesting. We are thinking about a very macro event, a geopolitical event that occurred this weekend.

1:54Nicolas Maduro and his wife, of course, being removed from Venezuela and being brought here to New York following a series of airstrikes that hit Caracas early Saturday. And the market shakes off that geopolitical risk thus far. We're up more than a percentage point in the Nasdaq. We're looking more towards an AI trade. We go under the hood, though. There is search for safety. You have been seeing gold rebound. Remember, it sold off hard into the new year trade. Bitcoin currently up 2.9 percent. As we see not just digital gold on the higher side that's at 93 ,000, but spot gold at 2.7 % higher.

2:27I'm looking at the U.S. dollar currently trading flat, but we had seen significant moves in the U.S. dollar more broadly. And we want to go to that macro level event right now because Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores will face trial, that is, on narco-terrorism charges in New York in the afternoon. Joining us now, Bloomberg Miles Miller, who stands by in Brooklyn right now. Just talk to us about the imminence of the arrival of the ousted president.

3:00Yeah, they were taken by a armored Bearcat vehicle to a landing pad in Brooklyn. And then from there, they flew across the harbor, past the Statue of Liberty, to the Wall Street helipad and were motorcaded here. Of course, Nicolas Maduro and his wife are both here at federal court in Lower Manhattan this morning, and they're facing narco-terrorism charges. Federal prosecutors allege that Maduro intended to benefit terrorist organizations, including FARC, ELN, Sinaloa Cartel, Trenda Agras, and the Zetas. And here's what prosecutors say happened. From 2000 to 2006, while he was a member of the National Assembly, they say Maduro moved cocaine under the protection of the Venezuelan law enforcement.

3:49And if that is not enough, they say that they were able to secure diplomatic passports for some of these drug traffickers to move drugs and money in and out of Venezuela from places like Colombia and Mexico. In one instance, we are told that they use a state oil plane, a plane for the state oil company, in order to facilitate the drugs moving in and out. It's not just Maduro and his wife who are charged in this. Their son is charged as well with being part of this drug conspiracy. If convicted, he faces the possibility of life in a supermax prison here in the United States. And we finally got some information about his legal team.

4:30We are learning that he's going to be represented by Barry Pollack. That's the same person who represented Julian Assange as well as David Wilkstrom, who represented the brother of Juan Orlando Hernandez, of course, the former president of Honduras, who was charged right here in the Southern District and was pardoned just a few weeks ago by President Trump. Miles, you stand by in Brooklyn for us, but many wonder how this is being digested in Venezuela. What do we know about how Maduro is being deemed by Venezuelan leadership right now and its people?

5:05Yeah, you know, we heard from the vice president of Venezuela that, you know, she did not necessarily agree what would happen there. And she, of course, is being the person who is taking control of the country. And it's going to be an interesting time there to see just what she does, how much she'll allow the United States to, say, run the state oil company to control the oil in Venezuela. And if she doesn't, what will happen to her? But it's not just what you're hearing on the streets of Venezuela, people who may be frustrated by what they saw. You've got folks on both sides here protesting, folks who believe Maduro should still be in power and want him to be released at his court hearing.

5:46And those who say they fled to the United States because of Maduro's regime. You know, the president said just yesterday that the United States will run Venezuela. didn't give too many details, but I think it'll have a lot to do with the oil and the strategic oil reserves there as well. Miles Miller, we so appreciate you, of course, standing live outside, and I correct myself, the Southern District of New York Court in Lower Manhattan will be returning to you later. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks sort of shrugged off these moves. They powered higher this morning as demand for tech shares remained strong, even after the ouster of Venezuela's president found worries over geopolitical risks.

6:26Let's get you an investor take. Anna Rathman is here with us, founder and CEO of Grenadilla Advisory. So your advisory is necessary right now. Anna, is it right for the market to shake this off? Good morning. I don't think this has short-term consequences for the markets. And I think there's a reason why it's shrugging it off. It's not a short-term trading event. I do think that there's a long-term consequence of this. I know that energy companies are soaring because of this idea that they will be able to go in and extract some of that oil. But frankly, that's not a 2026 story. The longer play here really is, I think, geopolitical.

7:02Think about where oil matters. Russia is seller of oil. China is buyer of oil. And of course, Middle East, we all know that there's a lot of oil involved there. So if we think about where the conflicts are around the world and where and how the U.S. is involved in those conflicts, I think this move in Venezuela is more of a chess game that's a longer run game rather than a short term move. Well, boy, has the tech investment community been trying to dissect the chess game that is U.S.-China trade and tariff. How does it affect that in 2026, do you think, Anna? Well, you know, throughout 2026, we're supposed to be talking with China about tariffs.

7:42And at the center of those tariff and trade talks really is rare earth minerals, AI chips, all of those things. And so if you're China and you're looking at the development over the weekend and you realize that in terms of natural resources, U.S. has taken control over a lot of the oil that they will need as well. It sort of changes the game. And who has the upper hand in some of these these talks that we're expecting to be in 2026? So I think this puts, you know, strategically speaking, the U.S. in a more powerful position in some of these trade talks. So it'll be interesting to see how this all pans out in terms of our earth minerals.

8:19And of course, China buying potentially NVIDIA chips as well. OK, so strategically thinking for an investor right now, is it wise to be powering NVIDIA higher, to be seeing Tesla rocketing up on the green today? More broadly, should the AI trade be back on for 2026? I think 2026 is going to be a very interesting year for some of this trade that we've seen powering through the years. I think, first of all, there is this idea that a lot of IPOs will come into play in 2026. We will see how easy or difficult it is for a lot of these companies to fundraise, especially those that have really, really high valuations, whether or not the investors really have the appetite for these things.

9:00And as for NVIDIA and Tesla, they have other problems, really. I mean, NVIDIA has issues with TPUs coming online. And even though I do think that they have a lot of market share still, there are things to think about. For Tesla, there's also BYD, right? So it's not so much that it is about AI powering through. I think there's real competition out there that these companies need to be thinking about. Well, it's interesting. We're going to be hearing from Jensen Huang later today at CES from Lisa Su of AMD. What do you think they can give to the market that backs up the market share, certainly of NVIDIA at least?

9:35Yeah, I think clearer guidance is definitely helpful. I know that the NVIDIA has certainly given a clearer guidance for 2026 and there seems to be a lot of demand. But they're going to have to answer to sort of the next best thing, right? So what's beyond the Blackwell chips? What's beyond the relationships with OpenAI and other big players out there? I think investors need to hear something new in terms of partnerships as well as technological advancement for a lot of this excitement to continue into 2026. So, Anna, where do you stand in optimism versus pessimism for 2026? If at this moment there are still many more questions and perhaps the market isn't factoring in some of the risks, should you be buying in at these levels?

10:19Well, you know, if you're already invested, I think there's room for markets to run, but not without any volatility here. I don't think the market is so excited that, you know, analysts looking at 15 percent year over year growth in the S &P 500 companies. That might be exciting on a fundamental level. And hopefully it broadens out to the rest of the sectors in the S &P 500 index. But there are multiples that are very, very stretched. Right. So especially with this talks with China that not only impacts tech, but also other areas of the economy. I think we're due for some volatility. but weather the volatility by having a robust portfolio and that is always recommended by the advisor community.

11:01What's been really interesting is, well, the ongoing drive, dispersion between software and hardware names. We saw that in particular on Friday and our great producer Dan Curtis has been pointing out just the disparity that you saw in software indices that fell some 3 % on Friday and then we rallied in when you're looking at a semiconductor index in particular more than 4%. Is that going to continue? How much more support do we need for software to show that it can benefit from the AI trade? Yeah, I think 2026 is still going to be a picks and shovels year. Building these things out and the demand there is for it, that's not something that can be done in a year or two.

11:39I think this is a multiple year story. And certainly on the software side, there's a lot of experimentation still. And if you're a customer sort of subscribing to some of these things and dipping your toes in, there's no guarantee that that's going to be sticky. I mean, I think we're thinking about things like SaaS, where if you have a subscription to something and you incorporate those software into your day to day, it becomes super sticky. I don't think that's necessarily where we are with the software on the AI side. I think people are experimenting. So until we can see some stickiness and real incorporation and integration of those software into the day to day of the businesses, I would be a little bit skeptical as well.

12:20And I think that's what the markets are actually expressing. Fascinating. Love getting a little healthy dose of skepticism today from Anna Rathman, founder, CEO of Grenadilla Advisory. Stay well. Happy 2026. Now, coming up, the arrest of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro is being watched far beyond Latin America. What it could mean for U.S. resolve and China-Taiwan relations. This is Bloomberg Tech. I'm Barry Ritholtz, inviting you to join me for the Masters in Business podcast. Every week, we bring you fascinating conversations with the people who shape markets, investing, and business. CEOs, fund managers, billionaires, Nobel laureates, traders, analysts, economists, everybody that affects what's going on in the market.

13:08Whether you own stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, crypto, you really need to hear these conversations. Sometimes it's behaviorists like Dick Thaler or Bob Schiller. Sometimes it's fund managers like Peter Lynch, Bill Miller, Ray Dalio. Sometimes it's authors, Michael Lewis, author of The Big Short, and Moneyball. Regardless of the conversation, these are the folks that move markets each week. That's the Masters in Business podcast with me, Barry Ritholtz. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

13:50The arrest of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro. Well, it's reverberating well beyond Latin America. Some in Taiwan. Well, they're already viewing the move as a signal of U.S. resolve. But the American strike is also stirring concerns that it's offered a template how Beijing could handle tensions with Taiwan. Here to break it down is Bloomberg Senior Tech Editor Mike Shepard. You bring us the global geopolitical perspective from a tech insight here, Mike. What should we think for Taiwan and its ability to continue in its current state vis-a-vis China? Well, there are different schools of thought, Cara, that you mapped out right there.

14:24One is from inside China, there is the nationalist perspective that, look, this offers us a roadmap, perhaps, of how we could retake control of the self-governed island of Taiwan, which officials in Beijing view as a rogue province, as one that they should bring back into the fold. Meanwhile, in Taiwan, in Taipei, officials there are actually finding some encouragement from the U.S. move in Venezuela as perhaps a way of signaling deterrence against Beijing to try to do anything similar there. And they see it that way for two reasons. One, they find that the U.S. has military superiority over China in this area.

15:06China would not be able to pull off the same kind of maneuver that the U.S. just did on Saturday in Caracas. And the other reason is that they see that this signals that Trump will exercise U.S. military power when he sees American strategic interests at risk. And they certainly would be if China moved against Taiwan, which is a linchpin in the global chip supply chain. Yeah, go there, Mike. The national security implications of Taiwan. Why is that so crucial to the administration? Well, they still see Taiwan as so essential to being able to support a wide range of industries, especially the growing one on which they have placed so many bets, and that is artificial intelligence.

15:52Taiwan far and away right now is the world center of production of the most advanced AI chips. Even with all the investment in production that is planned for the U.S. in coming years, much of that is not online yet and is really still being produced in Taiwan on the self-governed island. So any disruption to that supply chain would be catastrophic, especially for political reasons. If we saw any sort of military action by Beijing against the island, it would be disruptive. And Carol, we remember during the pandemic just how problematic those dislocations in the supply chain were and how they rippled through to the automotive sector and others.

16:32And that, of course, was before the advent of artificial intelligence and chat GPT and the wide scale uptake that we're seeing across the economy of this revolutionary new technology and what that would mean if suddenly the world lost access to it. We would likely see the U.S. respond. It's unclear whether militarily, but certainly with sanctions together with other nations like Japan and Australia that have already mused about leaping to the island's defense in the event of Beijing trying to intervene militarily. And it's important to remember, while Trump has remained vague about whether he would step in with U.S.

17:10forces to defend the island, the administration just approved an$11 billion package of arms to be sold to Taiwan, which is one of the largest in recent memory, Carol. Always with the deep analysis. Mike Shepard, thanks for breaking that down. Meanwhile, look, this geopolitical anxiety that we speak of has had no impact on the AI trade in that part of the world. Look at TSMC shares, climbed by the most since April as the company rides a wave of optimism over artificial intelligence demand. Bloomberg Tech Executive Editor Peter Elstrom joins us for more. And we've heard how in many ways there's two ways you can interpret what this impact from Latin America means on Taiwan.

17:48But TSMC, great growth, it seems. Yeah, as you were just talking about with Mike, Taiwan really is at the heart of the AI boom right now when it comes to production. As we saw with TSMC, the shares are up by about 5 % today. We had Goldman Sachs raise its price target for the stock. They boosted it by 35%. It's really an extraordinary increase in what they expect you can see from that stock. TSMC has done very well by making the chips for NVIDIA. It also produces chips for Apple and other customers here. But really, NVIDIA has given it a ton of momentum recently. That's put the company on a tear.

18:27Its market cap is now about$1.4 trillion, up quite sharply. And Goldman Sachs is telling you that it could run another 40 % from where it is right now. So it's really talking about TSMC becoming a$2 trillion company if they can hit that price target. That would largely be based on the momentum behind NVIDIA's growth and some of their other customers like Apple. And NVIDIA has been helping Honhai as well with its numbers. That's right. Yeah, exactly. So Honhai reported some of their financial details for the fourth quarter. Their revenue was up 22%. Honhai makes iPhones for Apple, too, which was its very most important business for a long period of time.

19:07But it also makes servers that include those NVIDIA chips. So it's feeding servers and hardware to the hyperscalers that are building these enormous data centers across the U.S. and across the globe, really. It has a tremendous amount of momentum because the big hyperscalers, including Microsoft and Google, are boosting their spending by more than 30 percent this year to hundreds of billions of dollars. And that's giving a big tailwind to Hanhai. So we saw Hanhai boost its revenue for the fourth quarter 22 percent. It came in a couple billion dollars, more than expected at$83 billion. So it has a lot of momentum here.

19:43It looks like that demand for AI gear is increasing, at least for now. Yeah, and indeed, the iPhone 17 did well. As you mentioned, a key supplier, Foxconn, also known as Honhai. But Peter, going back to the start of this conversation, this is as we see ongoing geopolitical anxiety around Taiwan. How much are we seeing these names invest in America and continue to do so? Well, they are strategic assets, definitely. As you were talking about with Mike, TSMC, the most important chip maker in the world by a mile, because of the advanced chips that it makes for companies like NVIDIA, Apple, etc., has been building facilities in the United States.

20:24It's putting a lot of resources there. It got some money from the Chips Act under the Biden administration, has continued to build out those chips. It is making a lot of progress there. It's able to build fabs there that are quite productive, but they're not nearly as advanced as what they can do in Taiwan at this point. And this is part of the justification by the Taiwanese government and also TSMC itself. They want to have their most important assets in Taiwan. Partly it's an economies of scale issue. They can travel to those factories much more easily, have the engineers learn from each other within those factories.

20:55They want to keep that most advanced production there. It's also, frankly, a defensive maneuver for the government that if the most important assets are there, they know that the Trump administration or whatever U.S. government is in power is more inclined to come and make sure that they're protected. Peter Elstrom, The Global Perspective, we thank you.

21:19Tesla's China factory shipments, they came in today and showed they dropped in 2025. but there was a last minute bump in December where they grew. That's the company's struggles with the slowdown in global sales. Look, all of this, as I just mentioned, a little over 97 ,000 were in December, just the fourth month in 2025 that saw an increase. Let's bring in Bloomberg's Craig Trudell on all of this. He's the author of Hyperdrive Newsletter. So to get this straight, Tesla had decent numbers in December in terms of growth month on month and indeed year on year, but it's just woeful for the whole picture of 2025.

21:52five. Yeah, that's right, Caroline. I think, you know, we look at the December number and it's actually, you know, resilient and not just one of the rare up months for the year, but off of a relatively big month a year earlier. And yet when you look at the sort of whole picture for this company, you know, they had shipments throughout the year that were much lower and sort of reflecting this idea that they have some demand issues. And of course, when we look at their shipment data, It's both for the local market and for some export as well. So we'll get a better sense in the coming weeks just how the sort of retail sales were.

22:30I mean, it's the second consecutive annual drop when you're looking at China shipments. All of this comes in the context that BYD is now the biggest EV player worldwide. You've also got other competition coming from ex-phone makers who pivot into cars. Yeah, and China's market is increasingly cutthroat. You've seen Beijing try to sort of put some pressure on the industry to knock this off and kind of get to a point where pricing is a little bit more rational. And yet we only continue to see manufacturers offer new and more aggressive discounts. And that's been something that Tesla has really struggled to contend with throughout last year and even dating back to, I would say, 2023.

23:11Briefly, here in the U.S., there's competition from Lucid. Yeah, and Lucid, I think, like Rivian, is still a long ways behind Tesla. I think both of these companies had ambitions to give Elon Musk more of a challenge, and we've not seen that materialize. I think we saw some relatively strong numbers for that company in the fourth quarter, and yet you would expect that when they were going from one model to two models. So big things ahead for them this year as they tried to also bring out a new platform. Bloomberg's Autos editor, or czar as we like to call you, Craig Trudell. Great to have some time with you.

23:47Tune in tomorrow as we sit down with Lucid interim CEO Mark Winterhoff. That's live at CES.

23:58Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. We check in on these markets that shrug off some geopolitical anxiety. Of course, we're galloping higher, in fact, on the Nasdaq, as you see, at 1.1%. You are seeing search for a safety, though. Bitcoin maybe up 2.8 percent. Gold climbs fresh again. And this is after the ouster of Venezuela's president, Nicolas Maduro, who is set to arrive at a Manhattan court imminently. Now, we think about the geopolitical context. We also think about what the AI trade is up to at the start of 2026. And we're back on. NVIDIA up 0.7 percent. AMD up 0.6 percent. We hear from both of these CEOs over in Las Vegas later today at CES.

24:35So the market wanting to hear more transparency from these leaders. Palantir shakes off some of the sell-off that we saw on Friday. This software AI-infused software company is up more than 4%. It's one of the key gainers on the Nasdaq 100 from a points perspective. So too is Alphabet. We're up 0.5 % as still insatiable demand for Google and indeed its Gemini iterations, but also its TPU innovations. Let's talk more about the AI trade. Its resiliency. Bloomberg's tech equity reporter, Carmen Reinecke, is here. And you've been putting pen to paper thinking all about how an AI bubble has been much talked of.