10/1/25: Gov Shuts Down, Portland Invasion, Hegseth Slams Fat Generals. Venezuela Coup & MORE!

8:14Emily Jashinsky:So because this is what Democrats have chosen to focus on, health care, and we're going to bring Marjorie Taylor Greene, a post from her, into this in just one moment. I'm going to read from the Wall Street Journal that summarizes the Republican perspective. They say, quote, Democrats are trying to reverse all health policy changes enacted by the GOP's tax law, including provisions that limited federal funding for immigrant health care. Democrats are seeking more than a trillion altogether in health care funds, including for the ACA subsidies and Medicaid over 10 years. Are unauthorized immigrants eligible for ACA subsidies and Medicaid?

8:45Emily Jashinsky:The journal goes on to say migrants in the country illegally aren't eligible to enroll in the ACA marketplace, which you probably have heard Democrats pointing out in the last few days. They say the GOP's new tax law, the journal, signed by Trump in July, revoked eligibility from, quote, lawfully present immigrants. So that would include refugees and what truly were millions of asylum seekers who came into the country under the Biden administration are backlogged in the system. So that would also include some visa holders, according to the journal. Democrats' proposal would restore their eligibility.

9:17Emily Jashinsky:So for Republicans, they feel like that's a gift. And it's probably telling, Ryan, that Republicans latched onto that rather than 10 years ago. The battle of the decade was Obamacare itself. Right. Republicans aren't even fighting over the Obamacare extension. I mean, fiscal hawks obviously are, but they're overwhelmingly focusing on the eligibility for the, quote, lawfully present immigrants. Right.

9:45Krystal Ball:Right. Well, which which they refer to in their talking points as illegal immigrants, which is actually a distinction with a huge difference. And this has been, I think, a problem with a lot of the Republican arguments on the Biden immigration wave.

9:58Emily Jashinsky:These are, in many cases, not people who are in the country illegally. They may be people who entered the country illegally and then claimed asylum, which means that you're allowed to claim asylum. It ends up, you know, you might cross through a wall and then go to cross through a wall, cross through a barrier of the border and go to Border Patrol right away and make this asylum claim. But the problem, and this is a tangent, but it's useful in this case, is that what the Biden administration did was massively expand from a conservative perspective, massively expand the legal pathways. This was the entire argument.

10:35Emily Jashinsky:So, yes, in many cases, in most cases, as we discuss these subsidies, these are for people who are here legally. You just don't think they should be here. Right.

10:44Krystal Ball:Exactly. Yeah. To boil down the right wing argument, correct me if I'm being unfair here, but they would say Democrats say, but they're not here illegally. And Republicans say, yeah, but they should be illegal.

10:55Emily Jashinsky:Mm hmm. Which is again, which is a massive distinction because the Biden administration and this actually in a sort of normal debate setting would be helpful to the Republican argument because the Biden administration didn't go through Congress, expanded the pathways through just executive the executive branch, basically. And that's what their argument was for the four years of the Biden administration. That's what Republicans were saying was wrong. So these are people who are technically here legally in probably almost all cases if they're taking the insurance here.

11:27Krystal Ball:And I would love to hear Trump try to say that somebody disrespected Congress. This hasn't been collaborative enough in the governing approach.

11:35Emily Jashinsky:Speaking of Congress and speaking of Donald Trump, we have some sound from lawmakers just yesterday. Let's go ahead and roll eight to shutting it down.

11:45Ryan Grim:We're not shutting it down. We don't want it to shut down because we have the greatest period of time ever. I told you we have 17 trillion dollars being invested. So the last person that wants to shut down is us now. With that being said, we can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible by them, like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like. And you all know Russell Vogt. He's become very popular recently because he can trim the budget to a level that you couldn't do any other way. So they're taking a risk by having a shutdown because of the shutdown, we can do things medically and other ways, including benefits.

12:28Ryan Grim:We can cut large numbers of people. We don't want to do that, but we don't want fraud, waste and abuse.

12:35Joe Vaclavik:We've rolling the greatest hits on our social media.

12:37Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, I'm just saying that the point about giving people who are here illegally health care is not exactly what is in their proposal.

12:43Krystal Ball:No, it is 100 % what their proposal is.

12:45Emily Jashinsky:It's immigrants who have legal status, and you're just disagreeing on who's eligible. I looked at it, actually, because I was curious about your argument yesterday.

12:52Krystal Ball:You should study the CBO's analysis that they just put out a few weeks ago.

12:54Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, I saw that about the 1.2 million people. You're basically arguing about who has legal status, people who are seeking refuge here or seeking asylum.

13:01Krystal Ball:No, I'm making sure that we are making sure in our provisions that we sign into law have ensured that health care benefits go only to eligible U.S. citizens. Chuck Schumer's proposal. But as is federal law. Federal law was not being enforced. That's the whole point. We had to fine tune that so that we could strengthen the health care program. That's what we did.

13:18Emily Jashinsky:A response to Republicans like House Speaker Mike Johnson and others who say the subsidies don't expire until the end of December. We have time to negotiate on those and we can find some common ground.

13:27Krystal Ball:Well, for a start, common ground, really. They have had months. And for the first time in modern history, they have not sat down. What has always happened is the majority. You know, he talks about how 13 occasions they worked with the Democrats. It's true because the Democrats in that case sat down with them. So what you need is a bipartisan solution. But these guys have said it's my way or the highway. This is the way it's going to be. And that is kind of what Trumpism is about. That's that authoritarian tendency that we're seeing in America right now.

13:57Emily Jashinsky:So are you telling me you're willing to vote no every time Leader Thinke votes this up?

14:01Krystal Ball:I am not going to allow. Let me be clear. You can quote me on this. We say in Vermont till the cows come home. I will not let tens of thousands of fellow Americans die because they're thrown off of health care.

14:13Emily Jashinsky:I love saying you can quote me on this while you're on camera. But Ryan, that Bernie energy is exactly what Hakeem Jeffries lacks.

14:21Krystal Ball:Yeah, he also got underlined. He said, as we say in Vermont until the cows come home.

14:26Emily Jashinsky:As we say, everywhere. We'll give him that because Vermont has a lot of cows. Sure.

14:31Krystal Ball:But come on, like everybody says,

14:33Emily Jashinsky:he can't claim that.

14:35Krystal Ball:But like I said, special exemption from Vermont. They got an awful lot of cows, so fine. We'll let him have that. Separately, if you'd have told me 10 years ago, I'd be looking at the government getting shut down by Donald Trump with RFK Jr. and Dr. Oz standing behind him. Yep. Like what is, where did we go wrong? What happened? You would think you were tripping. What is going on here?

14:56Emily Jashinsky:Yes.

14:57Krystal Ball:Dr. Oz chuckling about Russ Vogt in the back there. So and so that's the key point, though. The substance here is Russ Vogt is the mastermind of Project 2025. He is one of them. A key thought leader.

15:11Emily Jashinsky:Absolutely. Yeah.

15:12Krystal Ball:When it comes, he was the OMB director under Trump one. He dulled his hatchet just by slashing through everything he possibly could, learned a lot of lessons, spent the next four years sharpening that thing. And now he's back there and he knows what he's doing. And he believes and we could get into the laws or whatever. What's the point? Because that's besides the point in a political area era where power is everything. He believes that in a government shutdown, he can destroy the government much faster.

15:47Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, I have an article pulled up actually from you mentioned the sharpening of the hatchet. This is from Eric Tetzel, who's the executive director of the Center for Renewing America, very much like movement conservative. but the Center for Renewing America is where Russ was before going back into the White House. And Eric writes, until this year, conservatives have opposed CRs. They wanted to use the annual appropriations process to cut spending and eliminate woke, wasteful, and weaponized federal programs, eliminate annual deficit spending, and reduce the national debt. Then goes on to say, however, President Trump and his director of OMB, Russ Vogt, came into office in January 2025 with a plan to revive lawful authorities of the president in spending that had long lay dormant, namely the powers of impoundment and rescission.

16:29Emily Jashinsky:And if you've been watching this show for the last several months, you know that we've covered their claiming of the impoundment and rescission powers. Impoundment, disagreement on impoundment goes back to Nixon. The Russ vote and the Trump administration have an ideological belief that is obviously also convenient for the sake of power, but it is an ideological belief that is powers that should lie in the hands of the executive. And so Eric goes on to say, in short, these powers allow the president to decline to spend money that Congress has appropriated, sending it back to the Treasury. This means that conservatives in Congress no longer bear the sole weight of cutting spending.

17:01Emily Jashinsky:The president can do it too. Suddenly, a CR that merely keeps funding flat from previous years is both a cut in real terms with inflation and nominally and an opportunity for the president to make additional cuts. And let me read one more line. Eric says, that's juicy, but here's where it gets even better. If there is a government shutdown due to a lapse in congressional authorization, the president and his team led by Russ Vogt must decide how to prioritize whatever federal revenues are received. So Eric compares that to like a family managing their household budget and says the president decides whether to pay the credit card bill or cut the cable.

17:34Emily Jashinsky:Only the options are keeping national parks open or funding research for transgender hormone therapy in mice. But that's on the table right now, as are potentially mass layoffs, which is where Democrats were genuinely fearful of what would happen with the shutdown, Ryan. At the same time, though, that in their corner, politically, they're being asked to blank check the Trump administration.

17:59Krystal Ball:Right. Yeah. Democrats are in a tough spot because they're, well, because they're mostly out of power. Their base wants them to fight. They're sick of the sternly worded letters. They don't have a lot of power and they don't have any, I think if Democrats had charisma and a message that they were regularly delivering on television and on social media, Democrats would then forgive them for doing nothing in Washington. Because we're like, look, okay, they're inspiring. They have a message. They're rallying the country against what's being done. They're not remotely doing that. We've got Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer embarrassing.

18:43Krystal Ball:Democrats are embarrassed by their leadership.

18:45Emily Jashinsky:Yeah.

18:45Krystal Ball:So then they're like, well, then do something like shut the government down. So you've got Indivisible and these other grassroots organizations that are pressuring Democrats. Show us you show us you have some spine. But absent a message and any charismatic leadership, it's just kind of like just do something in order to just do something. And then meanwhile, Republicans, I feel like actually want a government shutdown so that Russ Vot can do this thing.

19:14Emily Jashinsky:Absolutely.

19:14Krystal Ball:That he wants to do. further savage the government. And I think Democrats in Washington are like, well, long term, strategically, this is a bad idea because it's going to lead to a lot of people getting fired and the government getting destroyed. But we kind of have to do it because our base wants us to do something.

19:31Emily Jashinsky:Because our base hates us.

19:33Krystal Ball:Yeah.

19:33Emily Jashinsky:And they're not wrong because this is like we're Hakeem Jeffries versus Bernie Sanders is like the stark contrast there tells you what you need to know.

19:44Ryan Grim:In 2023, a story gripped the UK, evoking horror and disbelief. The nurse who should have been in charge of caring for tiny babies is now the most prolific child killer in modern British history. Everyone thought they knew how it ended. A verdict, a villain, a nurse named Lucy Letby. Lucy Letby has been found guilty. But what if we didn't get the whole story? The moment you look at the whole picture, the case collapses. I'm Amanda Knox, and in the new podcast Doubt, the case of Lucy Letby, we follow the evidence and hear from the people that lived it to ask what really happened when the world decided who Lucy Letby was.

20:27Ryan Grim:No voicing of any skepticism or doubt. It'll cause so much harm at every single level if the British establishment of this is wrong. Listen to Doubt, the case of Lucy Letby on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Jo Winterstein, host of the Spirit Daughter Podcast, where we talk about astrology, natal charts, and how to step into your most vibrant life. And I just sat down with a mini driver. The Irish traveler said when I was 16, you're going to have a terrible time with men. Actor, storyteller, and unapologetic Aquarian visionary. Aquarius is all about freedom loving and different perspectives.

21:11Ryan Grim:And I find a lot of people with strong placements in Aquarius like are misunderstood. A sun and Venus in Aquarius in her seventh house spark her unconventional approach to partnership. He really has taught me to embrace people sleeping in different rooms, on different houses, in different places, but just an embracing of the is-ness of it all. If you're navigating your own transformation or just want a chart side view into how a leading artist integrates astrology, creativity, and real life, this episode is a must listen. Listen to the Spirit Daughter podcast starting on February 24th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts.

21:50Ryan Grim:What if mind control is real?

21:53Joe Vaclavik:If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have?

21:56Ryan Grim:Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car?

21:59Joe Vaclavik:When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings.

22:04Ryan Grim:Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you?

22:06Joe Vaclavik:I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused.

22:10Ryan Grim:Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. NLP, aka Neuro Linguistic Programming, is a blend of hypnosis, linguistics, and psychology. Fans say it's like finally getting a user manual for your brain.

22:27Joe Vaclavik:It's about engineering consciousness.

22:28Ryan Grim:Mind Games is the story of NLP. its crazy cast of disciples and the fake doctor who invented it at a new age commune and sold it to guys in suits he stood trial for murder and got acquitted the biggest mind game of all nlp might actually work this is wild listen to mind games on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts hakim jeffries i don't know ryan i'm curious what you make of this

22:58Emily Jashinsky:I just think his Schumer is Schumer, and he's sort of a creature of Washington. But Hakeem Jeffries tries really hard to seem like something else. He tries really hard to feel like he's a grassroots populist almost in his presentation of leadership talking points. But it really seems to me like it falls flat. Maybe we can roll this Trump meme. You may have caught this is A4. We can't play the music, but you can see this on your screen. Trump tweeted out again another meme on Hakeem Jeffries, another joke on Hakeem Jeffries. Yeah, this is a VO. We can play it while I'm talking here. So Trump posted this again.

23:37Emily Jashinsky:It's a clip of Hakeem Jeffries on MSNBC talking about how Trump putting the sombrero and mustache and mariachi garb on Hakeem Jeffries is racist. As he's saying that, Trump posted a video that puts the sombrero and mustache and has Trump playing mariachi music in the background. And Ryan, I know it's... Is that racist? I mean...

24:00Krystal Ball:It's insensitive.

24:03Emily Jashinsky:I don't know.

24:04Krystal Ball:Hakeem Jeffries is not Mexican.

24:06Emily Jashinsky:No, he's not Mexican. And it wasn't like...

24:09Krystal Ball:It's childish. It's juvenile.

24:10Emily Jashinsky:I was just going to say, yeah. I know that this is Donald Trump's boomer memeing, but that tells you something about how pathetic Hakeem Jeffries is. It is an interesting contest between two parties who are in different worlds.

24:25Krystal Ball:And Trump seems to believe that the world that he's creating and then occupying is the one where power is going to reside in a country and in a world in which people are fed up with the old system. whereas Hakeem Jeffries is just clinging to some type of bygone values. And he even referenced, and I might have even been in that interview, all of a sudden they're in this Oval Office reading a bunch of like MAGA 2028 hats.

24:54Emily Jashinsky:Yeah.

24:55Krystal Ball:Which show up on the coffee table.

24:56Emily Jashinsky:And the White House takes pictures and puts them out.

24:58Krystal Ball:Yeah. And Jeffries says that he said to J.D. Vance, you okay with this? And he says that J.D. Vance said no comment. which is Jeffrey's like reaching back for some type of comedy and civility.

25:16Emily Jashinsky:Right.

25:18Krystal Ball:And implying then to the audience that J.D. Vance secretly pines for that as well. Right. And probably does. Maybe. Yeah.

25:26Emily Jashinsky:I mean, I don't know. But like, Hakeem Jeffries wasting any breath calling a meme from Trump racist during this shutdown fight when they have the political gift of talking about health care is insane to me and just so indicative of where their heads are at like he should be it's just I sympathize with him because

25:48Krystal Ball:man Trump was a lunatic what are you supposed to do so say that I mean like it's like Trump let's say pulls up to the meeting in a clown car and you're not supposed to point out that he and J.D. Vance and all these other clowns are stumbling out of a clown car. Like, it's hard. I get why you should stay focused on the health care, but it's like, he's in a clown car.

26:11Emily Jashinsky:Does everybody else see this? You just don't have to call a clown car racist because then it becomes an entirely, like, he should know this media ecosystem and he should know that voters, like, many of his own voters are sick of these invocations of racism when they feel like Like their material world is crumbling in front of them. Health care prices are about to go up and are going up, actually. So I just think it's crazy for him to waste a breath on it. And on the other side of that, Marjorie Taylor Greene, let's put up A3, had some criticism for her own party. This is, she posted this yesterday.

26:44Emily Jashinsky:Fifth squad member. The fifth squad member. Americans are getting crushed by health insurance with monthly payments of$1 ,500,$1 ,700, and over$2 ,000 per month. Instead of a revolving door of foreign government leaders to the White House, I'd like to see health insurance CEOs in there getting chewed out on live television. Health insurance is out of control. So that was, again, posted the day before the government shut down, the day after Netanyahu was at the White House. And Ryan, she's cooking. She is.

27:15Krystal Ball:If I had unlimited amount of time, my next book, I think, would just have to be about MTG. She's what a fascinating.

27:22Emily Jashinsky:Good idea.

27:23Krystal Ball:arc that she's taken. And she is correct. Monthly payments of$1 ,500,$1 ,700,$2 ,000 per month, when the subsidies go away, are going to be a bloody nose to a middle class that is already suffering under the weight of everything going up. Groceries are up like 50 % or something year over year.

27:46Emily Jashinsky:It's insane.

27:47Krystal Ball:And people know, like, wait, how much am I paying for just two bags of groceries and and then and then at the same time this the insult to the injury of your coffee is four dollars extra because of tariffs because trump is trying to encourage a domestic coffee production industry where are we going to plant coke where are we going to plant how are we going

28:07Emily Jashinsky:to get coffee in the united states no seriously how are we going to do that yep greenhouses and i think it's got to be drier than that so i don't like what like what do you like why are we

28:17Krystal Ball:just because he doesn't understand things. Like you have to pay more at the grocery store. And then, right, who rolls in and out for the fourth time? Netanyahu rolls in and out of the Oval Office. So MTG is like, how about we bring in the insurance CEOs? Now, yeah, good.

28:37Emily Jashinsky:Crack down.

28:38Krystal Ball:Go MTG.

28:38Emily Jashinsky:And to answer her rhetorical question of why not, it's because they're all big donors. The same goes for Democrats, by the way. And the reason part of what we're dealing with Affordable Care Act wise is that the bill was this hulking mess that had all kinds of it was in some ways this compromise between and in some ways ran an understandable compromise between industry. He was covering this at the time between industry and the sort of idealism of Obama about bringing health care prices down. But they compromised with industry in a lot of different ways. And that's not completely what we're dealing with now is not completely downstream from that.

29:19Emily Jashinsky:But for Marjorie Taylor Greene, I think to be jumping in and criticizing Republicans for health care for an obvious blind spot. Republicans for a decade campaigned on health care, did nothing about it, and now never even talk about it unless it's in reference to what they say are, quote, illegal immigrants, which is covered. But it's just a massive blind spot that is maybe one of the biggest holes and sources of anxiety in the average American's daily budget. And they've got nothing. Yeah.

29:47Krystal Ball:And just briefly, I want to keep people updated on the fight over electricity bills. We can put up A5, new research from Bloomberg here showing that as you suspect, like that your intuition is correct. In areas, you know, where there have been data centers built, electricity costs as much as 267 % more than it did five years ago. That's a near quadrupling. Like that's insane. And it's only getting worse as they continue to build these and as both parties are supportive of these big tech sweetheart deals that basically require rate payers, consumers, to subsidize the production of these AI and these data centers.

30:45Krystal Ball:And do not ask Grok about that because then you're just you're you think it's free every time you ask him if this is true. You're paying. Stop.

30:56Emily Jashinsky:Yeah. Thanks, everybody, for their other questions.

30:59Krystal Ball:Although I don't want to.

31:01Emily Jashinsky:Sagar roasted us for yesterday.

31:02Krystal Ball:I don't want to encourage it. Like the whole carbon footprint was a neoliberal, like ridiculous attempt to make something that is system wide a personal responsibility question. The same thing with recycling, which is fake, which is almost entirely fake. So I don't want to shame people for using AI or Grok or whatever as if you have some Grok footprint.

31:29Emily Jashinsky:Yes.

31:30Krystal Ball:And that if you use less Grok that your electric bill will go down because it's a systematic problem.

31:35Emily Jashinsky:As if you have any agency.

31:36Krystal Ball:But also stop with this Grok. Other than voting. You should just stop because it's like an insult to all of our intelligence.

31:42Emily Jashinsky:Just to wrap a bow on everything, we've alluded to a bit why this is probably in both parties' political interest, even if it's not in the American people's interest to have a shutdown government. But for both parties coming to an impasse on this, they just don't have many incentives. Democrats are reportedly hopeful right now that actually Donald Trump is the one who will come to the table on the ACA subsidies or the ACA expansion because he's someone who wants to be able to say, I gave you your health care cheaper. I gave you your health care. I fixed the problem with your health care. Now you can thank me for the health care because of the shutdown aversion or ending the shutdown.

32:20Emily Jashinsky:I, Donald Trump, ended the shutdown. So I think we can expect this to go on for a long time. They're probably correct that that's their best bet at this point because Donald Trump can basically tell congressional Republicans what to do and they'll follow him, no question about it. But if they let it go on for a few days at least, they'll already start experimenting with some of these long-term cuts that they want to do. And finally, Ryan, this is a point that we haven't talked about, but it's what most of the media coverage is focused on. I'm thankful that this isn't what most of our coverage is focused on because it's kind of a secondary story.

32:54Emily Jashinsky:But in prior shutdowns, there's just this finger pointing game that gets played in the media. Everyone's seeing it. It's a Republican's fault. It's a Democrat's fault. And when we were reading the op-ed earlier about Russ Vought, saying, well, previously Republicans have opposed these CRs and have opposed, you know, the way that we're funding the government. Well, there are arguments that you can, there's always a partisan argument for who actually shut down the government. Republicans can say, well, Democrats wouldn't come to the table. And Democrats can say, well, Republicans are the ones who won't give us the votes.

33:28Emily Jashinsky:This time, it's the Democrats who will not give Republicans the vote. and Rand Paul. They need seven because Rand Paul is out. So I'm curious if we'll be able to look back on the media coverage at this one as an instructive example as to who gets the blame when they're not giving the votes.

33:43Krystal Ball:We'll see. And these are called process arguments.

33:46Emily Jashinsky:Yes.

33:47Krystal Ball:And the public does not care about process. And parties in general also do not care about process. They invent concerns about process to justify whatever their substantial or political demand is. So So nobody should really waste much time thinking about that. Last thing on this, we have a little scoop. Attorney General Pam Bondi, just before five o 'clock last night, sent out a memo to the Department of Justice, which we obtained and which one of the attorneys there sent to me flagging it as a flagrant, what they call a Hatch Act violation, which was a law that is still on the books. Which was a law.

34:24Krystal Ball:But does not actually get enforced anymore, which says that the federal government cannot be used for partisan political purposes. That's illegal. Yesterday, if you went to HUD.gov during the day, it gave you a giant banner that said, sorry that you're coming here, but radical Democrats have ruined the world.

34:45Emily Jashinsky:It's still there. It's still up right now.

34:47Krystal Ball:Go to HUD.gov. So the memo she sent out, Attorney General Bondi. Unfortunately, Democrats are blocking this CR in the U.S. Senate due to unrelated policy demands. If congressional Democrats maintain their current posture and refuse to pass a clean CR to keep the government funded before 12 a.m. on October 1st, federal appropriated funding will lapse. The Department has contingency plans in place, etc. This is the kind of thing that would have been a five alarm scandal even just 10 years ago. now the full politicization of the federal government has taken hold as it's just weaved into this otherwise bureaucratic sounding memo sent to thousands of lawyers.

35:34Yeah.

35:35Emily Jashinsky:That's an extra bold.

35:36Krystal Ball:Yeah.

35:37Emily Jashinsky:Yeah.

35:38Krystal Ball:What does she care? Anyway.

35:39Emily Jashinsky:Well, let's go ahead, Ryan, and bring in Representative Ben Klein of Virginia, who will be followed by Senator Jeff Merkley. You brought in Klein.

35:46Krystal Ball:He's a Freedom Caucus.

35:47Emily Jashinsky:Right. Freedom Caucus. So he'll tell us what the right flank of the House is thinking. Well, and that's especially interesting, given the Marjorie Taylor Greene. She's not in the Freedom Caucus anymore. She's still roughly Freedom Caucus. She's got booted out for being too based. Yes. And she criticizes them a lot now. But, you know, to have a kind of populist perspective on a health care fight is always, I think, useful, especially since it's been such a blind spot for Republicans. So we're going to talk to Representative Kline of Virginia, and then we're going to bring in Senator Jeff Merkley, who can, I think, give us some insight into how prominent Democrats are thinking about this.

36:19Krystal Ball:Yeah, and Merkley, first elected in 08, represents Oregon. So we'll ask him about the federal war that Trump declared on Oregon yesterday as well. Plus, he and Chris Van Hollen were actually, they tried to go to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation sites pretty recently. So we can ask Merkley about that, too.

36:39Emily Jashinsky:And just before we toss to them, just the real road consequences of a shutdown, as many 4 million federal employees. I have those. I'm reading, yes, those. I'm reading from ABC right now. But people have been through it now. They sort of know what to expect. So that includes some service members who could go without a paycheck. That actually includes some of the National Guard people who are deployed to places like Washington, D.C., potentially to Chicago or Memphis. hundreds of thousands, including airport security officers, air traffic controllers, and certain members of the military will be deemed essential workers and told to come to work anyway.

37:09Emily Jashinsky:So if in a flight, you don't have to worry too much, except last time when there was a shutdown, you just get a lot more call outs of TSA people who are calling in sick because they don't know whether they're going to get paid if this lasts particularly long. National parks could close, the Smithsonian could, it's staying up until Monday so far, but.

37:28Krystal Ball:And like apparently, like in the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for instance, apparently about roughly one person is deemed essential, which means if this goes on for a long time, the already somewhat unreliable data that we're getting out of the BLS will become that much more unreliable because you need the workers to be collecting the data on a daily basis. Otherwise, you are flying blind in the economy. So stuff like that too.

37:54Emily Jashinsky:We'll see. And then broke this morning that BLS nominee EJ and Tony's nomination has been withdraw.

38:01Krystal Ball:They'll find some other bozo.

38:02Emily Jashinsky:All right, let's get to it.

38:06Ryan Grim:Hi, this is Jo Winterstein, host of the Spirit Daughter podcast, where we talk about astrology, natal charts, and how to step into your most vibrant life. And I just sat down with a mini driver. The Irish traveler said when I was 16, you're going to have a terrible time with men. actor storyteller and unapologetic Aquarian visionary Aquarius is all about freedom loving and different perspectives and I find a lot of people with strong placements in Aquarius like are misunderstood a sun and Venus in Aquarius in her seventh house spark her unconventional approach to partnership he really has taught me to embrace people sleeping in different rooms on different houses in different places but just an embracing of the isness of it all If you're navigating your own transformation or just want a chartside view into how a leading artist integrates astrology, creativity, and real life, this episode is a must listen.

39:03Ryan Grim:Listen to the Spirit Daughter podcast starting on February 24th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. In 2023, a story gripped the UK, evoking horror and disbelief. The nurse who should have been in charge of caring for tiny babies is now the most prolific child killer in modern British history. Everyone thought they knew how it ended. A verdict? A villain? A nurse named Lucy Letby. Lucy Letby has been found guilty. But what if we didn't get the whole story? The moment you look at the whole picture, the case collapses. I'm Amanda Knox and in the new podcast Doubt the case of Lucy Letby we follow the evidence and hear from the people that lived it to ask what really happened when the world decided who Lucy Letby was no voicing of any skepticism or doubt it'll cause so much harm at every single level of the British establishment of this is wrong listen to Doubt the case of Lucy Letby on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts What if mind control is real?

40:14Joe Vaclavik:If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have?

40:17Ryan Grim:Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car?

40:21Joe Vaclavik:When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings.

40:25Ryan Grim:Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you?

40:28Joe Vaclavik:I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused.

40:31Ryan Grim:Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. NLP, aka Neuro Linguistic Programming, is a blend of hypnosis, linguistics, and psychology. Fans say it's like finally getting a user manual for your brain.

40:48Joe Vaclavik:It's about engineering consciousness.

40:50Ryan Grim:Mind Games is the story of NLP. It's crazy cast of disciples and the fake doctor who invented it at a new age commune and sold it to guys in suits. He stood trial for murder and got acquitted. The biggest mind game of all? NLP might actually work. This is wild. Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

41:16Emily Jashinsky:We're joined now by Congressman Ben Klein, Republican representing Virginia's 6th District. Congressman, thank you so much for joining us.

41:24Joe Vaclavik:Good to be with you.

41:24Emily Jashinsky:Okay, so you are a member of the Freedom Caucus, and somebody who, you know, used to be pretty close with Freedom Caucus world is Russ Vogt. And I'm curious, Congressman, if you could talk to us a little bit about how this shutdown, how Republicans are looking at the possibilities of the shutdown, empowering from their perspective, the Russ vote and Donald Trump efforts to actually make significant cuts while the government is shut down to go on impoundment, rescissions and potentially even layoffs of federal workers. Is that a significant part of the plan that people could expect to see in the coming days?

42:00Joe Vaclavik:Well, the administration has its priorities. Our priorities in the House and in the Senate with Republicans are to get the government back on track. You know, this is we passed regular order, continuing resolutions to keep the government running. We've done our job. The Senate is trying to I mean, the Democrats are trying to attach extraneous provisions, but we will hopefully be back up and running. And, you know, in the meantime, if the administration is going to pursue their priorities of streamlining government, then, you know, then I think that's something Republicans are generally in favor of.

42:37Joe Vaclavik:We hope that they are targeted and that they are in areas where we need streamlining. But, you know, I think that Russ Vogt has done a fantastic job as OMB director. And I think we look for him to make decisions that are going to help improve, improve efficiency and reduce bureaucracy.

43:00Krystal Ball:And so the big, beautiful bill, which Democrats are kind of making this shutdown fight about, included significant tax cuts tilted towards the wealthy. And to pay for some of that, there were significant cuts to Medicaid and then to Obamacare subsidies, which Democrats say, and I think there's actually a lot of data to back this up, is going to be really brutal for hospitals in particular in rural America. Are you seeing any pressure from your constituents who are concerned about hospital closures?

43:34Joe Vaclavik:Well, my district voted for President Trump, voted for the Trump agenda, voted for Republican control in the House and in the Senate. So, you know, what we are doing is delivering on the agenda that the voters voted for. And so when we passed the big, beautiful bill, we passed included language that would eliminate waste, fraud and abuse in Medicaid by putting in place common sense work requirements, by streamlining SNAP benefits to make sure that there's not duplication, that there's not people who shouldn't be on food stamps getting food stamps. All of that is the Democrats are seeking to roll back the election of last November and say it didn't really happen.

44:17Joe Vaclavik:Our agenda is the agenda that people voted for and want. So we want more bureaucracy, more waste, fraud and abuse and more excess spending on pet projects like health care funding in California for illegal immigrants.

44:29Emily Jashinsky:Well, yeah, I was just going to ask. So if Democrats dropped, and that seems right now to be a big if, if Democrats dropped, they're part of these negotiations that would apply to the, quote, like, lawfully present immigrants, which could include people who came over and claimed asylum, even if they crossed illegally and then claimed asylum. If they dropped that part of this, do you think there would be a pathway to an agreement to reopening the government if they just got rid of? Would Republicans come to the table if they just got rid of the health care subsidies for people who are not U.S. citizens?

45:07Joe Vaclavik:You know, that's not the only problem with the Democrats' demands. It is one of the most egregious. But the health insurance subsidies, let's remember, Obamacare broke the health insurance marketplace so that all the health insurance policies are now out of reach for low income and middle income earners. And so to to actually afford these Obamacare policies, Democrats have put in place subsidies and want to keep the money train going to the insurance companies. Republicans don't think we should be subsidizing insurance companies with$40 billion in additional money to pad their balance sheets. So we need to put more competition in the marketplace, put more low-cost health insurance options for working families.

45:59Joe Vaclavik:That's how we're going to address the problems that started long, long ago. and putting it into a continuing resolution just is malpractice on the part of the Democrats. We can talk about ways to reform health care once we get the government back up and running, but we have to do that first.

46:15Emily Jashinsky:So, Ryan, if you don't mind, I just wanted to read this post from Congressman, your colleague, Marjorie Taylor Greene, who said yesterday on Twitter, Americans are getting crushed by health insurance with monthly payments of$1 ,500,$1 ,700, and$2 ,000 per month instead of a revolving door of foreign government leaders to the White House, probably referring to Benjamin Netanyahu there. I'd like to see health insurance CEOs in there getting chewed out on live television. Health insurance is out of control. And I thought that post was really interesting because it reflects the sentiment that I could hear maybe people in your district or just average Trump voters who might see their premiums spike saying, yes, we all agree that we should fix the health care system, but you're asking me to wait for a massive political project that might or might not ever happen because of the state of Congress.

47:03Emily Jashinsky:So doesn't that, I mean, how would you address somebody who says, I'm being raked over the coals every month. I can't afford this. This is out of control. Please just do something. I can't wait for Republicans to undo ACA with some like grand solution in the future.

47:18Joe Vaclavik:Yeah, Republicans agree, which is why we oppose what the Democrats want to attach to the CR, which is such a rollback that millionaires and billionaires are going to qualify for these subsidies that they currently receive. That's outrageous. And as to the health care locations, the hospitals and other health care facilities, those are going to be benefiting from the 50 billion that is in the Big Beautiful Bill that goes to rural health care. And that's something the Democrats want repealed. They want all of Big Beautiful Bill repealed, including$50 billion for rural health care, including putting back in place tax subsidies extended for millionaires and billionaires.

48:03Joe Vaclavik:It doesn't make any sense. It shows the lack of focus on the Democrats' part. We have three Democrats, two Democrats and an Independent who voted with Republicans last night for the continuing resolution for a clean CR. So it's clear that they're breaking, and we just need to keep the pressure on and hopefully they'll come around and vote for a clean CR. And then we can talk about how to resolve the spending for the next fiscal year.

48:27Krystal Ball:Let's talk about that$50 billion number though. So Republicans in the big, beautiful bill cut about a trillion dollars from Medicaid, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act, the ACA, Obamacare.

48:39Joe Vaclavik:High cutting, waste, fraud, and abuse. Exactly.

48:41Krystal Ball:Right. So let's, because we have a wasteful, we have a wasteful system and a lot of it goes to health insurance executives, a lot of private equity executives who own a lot of our providers. Let's say that even half, let's say half of that trillion dollars is just siphoned off by profiteers. I don't think it's$500 billion, but let's just say it is, probably closer to, let's say,$200 billion. Let's say, so that means$500 billion is being stripped out of the healthcare system, money that's not going to go now to providers into community health care systems. I was looking it up. Lee County Community Hospital in your district is saying that it might close.

49:24Krystal Ball:So you've got a, conservatively, you have a$500 billion gaping hole blown in the health care industry by this bill. And Republicans, because they understood the political risks of that, came back in with a$50 billion kind of backstop. So I hope for your constituents' sake that Lee County Community Hospital does manage to, you know, win the fight in the snake pit to get that money from that$50 billion pot. But don't the numbers just not add up there? Like if you're taking$500 to a trillion out but only putting$50 billion back in, aren't we going to see some significant bankruptcies among hospitals and providers?

50:06Joe Vaclavik:Well, Lee County is not in my district, but we do have a lot of rural hospitals in my district. And what they are saying is that, yes, that because we expanded Medicaid to cover working adults, that putting in place work requirements is going to put the responsibility on them to actually qualify for Medicaid and stay qualified for Medicaid. And then the increased reporting requirements is going to, again, put it on them and on the hospitals to make sure that only those who are qualified are going to receive Medicaid. So these common sense measures are going to make sure that more money is available for rural hospitals.

50:49Joe Vaclavik:And then you add on the$50 billion that's going to flow back only to rural hospitals. You know, rural hospitals really only use about five percent of Medicaid funding. And for them to actually get this directed money without the big hospitals and and the big competition for those funds, since it's just going to rural hospitals, you're going to see them benefit directly. And hopefully our constituents in rural areas will, too.

51:17Emily Jashinsky:Well, last question for me, Congressman, is just how far are House Republicans willing to push this? And maybe you haven't said into the Senate side and President Trump as well, but consensus here in Washington is that this is a shutdown. We'll probably, I mean, it may even challenge the record-long shutdown from President Trump's first administration because of what the incentives look like for both parties here. And I tend to even, as rarely as I agree with the Washington consensus, that does feel right to me this time. So what's your take? I mean, how far are House Republicans willing to hold out if Democrats don't add their votes to the to the in the Senate side?

51:56Joe Vaclavik:If Democrats weren't in existence in the Senate, we would have a continuing resolution. It would be a business continuing in the federal government because Democrats are refusing to provide those seven votes. That's why we have a shutdown. So it's on them to come back to the table. Three have come back. We need four more. I anticipate that by the time we get back to Washington next week, after the Jewish holiday and after the weekend, we are going to be ready. And the Democrats will probably be ready to get this thing resolved and open the government back up again.

52:36Krystal Ball:I've Emily and I were talking earlier in the program about how it's interesting that Republicans now when they're opposing these Obamacare subsidies have done it in the context of whether or not the money the subsidies are going to illegal illegal immigrants rather than kind of challenging the subsidies ideologically as they did for for many years. I know Freedom Caucus is pretty still squarely against those types of subsidies, but are you noticing an ideological shift among Republicans that they're, in a populist sense, more open to these government subsidies? And that's why they're looking for this angle of, well, they might accidentally benefit illegal immigrants.

53:22Krystal Ball:So that's why we're against them. But for American citizens, we're okay with it.

53:25Joe Vaclavik:No, I think for multiple reasons, you see Republicans explaining to the American people why these subsidies distort the marketplace and are wrong for health care. And there may be a temporary solution for folks right now. But long term, the money that is being asked for will go directly into the pockets of insurance executives. They'll keep premiums high and they won't provide any kind of relief for working families. We have to long term solve the problem that Obamacare broke when it destroyed our health insurance system. But short term, we do have to address high health insurance costs, but we have to do it without making sure that millionaires and billionaires benefit from these subsidies.

54:09Joe Vaclavik:And the Democrats, that's what they want. And that's what they're holding the government hostage to get an extension of these subsidies to every income earner, including illegal immigrants. and taking away$50 billion for rural health care. It doesn't make any sense, and I'm hoping that Democrats come to their senses and reopen the government soon.

54:30Emily Jashinsky:Congressman Klein, thank you so much for joining us here on Breaking Points this morning. We appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Thank you.

54:39Ryan Grim:In 2023, a story gripped the U.K., evoking horror and disbelief. The nurse who should have been in charge of caring for tiny babies is now the most prolific child killer in modern British history. Everyone thought they knew how it ended. A verdict, a villain, a nurse named Lucy Letby. Lucy Letby has been found guilty. But what if we didn't get the whole story? The moment you look at the whole picture, the case collapses. I'm Amanda Knox and in the new podcast Doubt the Case of Lucy Letby we follow the evidence and hear from the people that lived it to ask what really happened when the world decided who Lucy Letby was No voicing of any skepticism or doubt It'll cause so much harm at every single level if the British establishment of this is wrong Listen to Doubt the Case of Lucy Letby on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts Hi, this is Jo Winterstein, host of the Spirit Daughter podcast, where we talk about astrology, natal charts, and how to step into your most vibrant life.

55:49Ryan Grim:And I just sat down with a mini driver. The Irish traveler said when I was 16, you're going to have a terrible time with men. Actor, storyteller, and unapologetic Aquarian visionary. Aquarius is all about freedom loving and different perspectives. and I find a lot of people with strong placements in Aquarius like are misunderstood. A sun and Venus in Aquarius in her seventh house spark her unconventional approach to partnership. He really has taught me to embrace people sleeping in different rooms, on different houses, in different places, but just an embracing of the is-ness of it all. If you're navigating your own transformation or just want a chart-side view into how a leading artist integrates astrology, creativity, and real life, This episode is a must listen.

56:36Ryan Grim:Listen to the Spirit Daughter podcast starting on February 24th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. What if mind control is real?

56:47Joe Vaclavik:If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have?

56:51Ryan Grim:Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car?

56:54Joe Vaclavik:When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings.

56:58Ryan Grim:Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you?

57:01Joe Vaclavik:I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused.

57:04Ryan Grim:Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. NLP, aka Neuro Linguistic Programming, is a blend of hypnosis, linguistics, and psychology. Fans say it's like finally getting a user manual for your brain.

57:21Joe Vaclavik:It's about engineering consciousness.

57:23Ryan Grim:Mind Games is the story of NLP. its crazy cast of disciples, and the fake doctor who invented it at a New Age commune and sold it to guys in suits. He stood trial for murder and got acquitted. The biggest mind game of all? NLP might actually work. This is wild. Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

57:49Krystal Ball:Joining us now is Senator Jeff Merkley, Democrat of Oregon, to talk about the Democratic posture when it comes to the shutdown and also update us on his recent trip over to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. Senator Merkley, thanks so much for joining us.

58:09Saagar Enjeti:Good to be with you.

58:10Krystal Ball:So when it came to the Democratic decision making on how to confront Republicans on this shutdown, how was it that party leaders wound up settling on kind of health care subsidies as the thing that you were going to make this fight about?

58:29Saagar Enjeti:Well, if you compare March 15th, and as Shakespeare said, beware the Ides of March, and now here we are a number of months later, what has happened in the intervening period? Well, the big factor was passing what we refer to as the big, ugly betrayal bill. Then what did it do? The bub. The bub. It savaged Americans' health care. and that factor is coming due here in the coming months because in November people will be signing up for health care again and they'll be discovering double-digit increases. In many cases, they'll be paying twice what they paid the previous year and in some cases, families in Oregon will be paying$8 ,000 to$25 ,000 more and they simply won't be able to afford it.

59:21You go without health insurance, you don't go to the doctor, health conditions get worse.

59:27Saagar Enjeti:When you do go, you go to the most expensive version, the emergency room. When you can't pay the bill because you don't have insurance, then the revenues decrease for our clinics and our hospitals, many of which are already on the edge. And so Republicans are shutting down the government in order to cut health care. And why did they do this? To fund tax breaks for billionaires. Wow. I mean, this is a families lose, billionaires win direction. And health care touches every family in America.

59:55Emily Jashinsky:Are Democrats willing to come to the table on the key issue that Republicans have been talking about, which is health care for noncitizens? It's for people who are lawfully present. Republicans are saying illegal immigrants. The truth of that is it's people who are like lawfully present may have claimed asylum in the big wave of migration that we saw over the last few years. So if Democrats are willing to, I'm curious, Senator, are Democrats willing to come to the table and drop health care that would cover non-citizens for the sake of getting the government back open for U.S. citizens?

1:00:27Saagar Enjeti:Listen, the Republicans are engaged in a big lie because no one who is here undocumented is eligible for Medicaid. No one who is here undocumented is eligible for Medicare. And so that big lie is an effort to distract from what they did, which was to savagely cut health care for working Americans and struggling Americans across the spectrum. This bill that they passed was rolling out the red carpet for billionaires and rolling out the red tape for struggling families who are trying to get on their feet. And so the vision that is different here is that we want to make America work for everyone to be able to succeed.

1:01:18Saagar Enjeti:And I must say the reason we call this often their bill an ugly betrayal is because President Trump campaigned on helping families. But then when you saw in the rotunda, he's being sworn in and I'm about 20 feet away from him, second row back. And who's standing behind him? Not champions for health care or housing or education or good paying jobs or investment in infrastructure or equality of opportunity or making our planet healthier. None of that. No, no, it's billionaires. Day one of his administration was dedicated to making billionaires even wealthier and doing so at the expense of everyone else.

1:02:00Saagar Enjeti:And it wasn't just cutting health care. It was cutting child nutrition. And it was creating$30 trillion in additional debt over 30 years. Why? To fund tax breaks for billionaires. So certainly when you get in the room, there's going to be a lot of discussions over details. But that's the key is Republicans said, we are not even going to talk to you. The president, when he was non-president back in 2013, said the president has a responsibility to bring everyone together. If there is a shutdown, it's on the president's head. So this is Trump's Republican shutdown. But he wasn't willing, now that he's president, he wasn't willing to meet with our team until essentially we're approaching midnight, if you will.

1:02:40Saagar Enjeti:And he instructed the Speaker of the House, you don't talk to Democrats either. And the majority leader in the Senate didn't talk to Democrats. In other words, it was like, okay, well, let's talk about this because we are not going to just say that this horrific assault on families in America is okay. We're not going to say it's okay. We are not going to support that. Come talk to us. And they were unwilling to do so. So in a moment, we're going to be talking about Trump and Pete Hegseth appearing at the Pentagon yesterday. And while there, Trump talked about how, you know, he wants the military to start using American cities as training grounds.

1:03:21Krystal Ball:And he has said that he's going to send or is sending the military into Portland. As a senator from Oregon, what have you seen so far? And how do you respond to Trump's proposition here?

1:03:37Saagar Enjeti:Yeah, a week ago Thursday, he announced he was going to, quote, do a number on Portland. He said, I'm going to have the Secretary of War deploy the troops, and I'm going to authorize them to use full force. We're going to do a number on Portland. So we held a press conference, and I called it the Don't Take the Bait press conference. And we had all the local leaders, the mayor, our congressional delegation, the local city council members, don't take the bait. What the president is up to is he wants to create riots in Portland. And so by sending an influx of federalized troops, well, he's hoping there will be conflict, and then conflict justifies more authoritarian power.

1:04:25Saagar Enjeti:So understanding this, our reaction has to be, don't take the bait. And so this is the message we're giving to people. Yes, protest, but don't protest by getting engaged directly with any of these officers. Now, it turns out that some things have developed in that instead of sending a whole bunch of different forces from different organizations the way he did in 2000, right now, 2020, what he's planning to do now is to federalize 200 of our Oregon National Guard, send in leadership. So it basically decapitates the leadership that's in Oregon and sends in separate leadership. They're going to go through a couple days of training.

1:05:07Saagar Enjeti:There is a hearing this Friday for a stay. And why is that stay being considered? Because the power that the president's using, the authority he's using, is called Title 10. And it says the president can send in troops when there is an invasion or a rebellion. And this is very important because our founders were terrified of a standing army. They had seen dictators create an authoritarian state by using the power of an army. So they didn't want a standing army. They didn't trust it. And then 150 years ago, we had a general agreement that troops, and it's called posi comitatis law, that troops would never be used inside our cities.

1:05:51Saagar Enjeti:This exception being invasion or rebellion. So I'm hoping that we'll hear from the district judge an injunction saying there's nothing that qualifies as an invasion or a rebellion. I went past the ICE headquarters, which is what Trump has focused on, a couple times this last week, and I saw three women standing out with signs that had flowers on them. And are you kidding me? That's a rebellion? That's called an American protest. That's called freedom of speech. That's called freedom of assembly. That's as American as apple pie. There have been a few conflicts, kind of like the equivalent of a bar fight over the last couple of months, but well within the ability of local pleas to tackle.

1:06:32Saagar Enjeti:Nothing that would constitute a rebellion. Think about a rebellion. What's a rebellion? Like Civil War, that's a rebellion. Shade's rebellion, the founding of our republic, that was a rebellion where you had a mob seeking to tackle the local armory and grab guns. But so what we feel what Trump is doing is very much out of the authoritarian playbook, extremely dangerous. And then he followed up, as you mentioned, by talking to the generals yesterday morning. And he says, you know, first of all, it's a loyalty test. You all don't like what I'm doing? Leave the room. But you will be you probably lose your rank.

1:07:06Saagar Enjeti:OK, so loyalty to the Constitution is the oath they took. But Trump wants loyalty to the president. It's very dangerous. They said a group of you are probably going to be in charge of this strategy of sending troops to cities and making it a training ground. A training ground for what? For how troops are deployed across America. Folks have been coming to my town halls and saying, and I've done 36 of them this year, saying, we are really worried that the president is going to create some emergency power. It's going to say as emergency power. It's going to postpone elections. people are going to basically protest against that and he's going to send in the troops.

1:07:45Saagar Enjeti:Is this what he's planning? Is this training so that troops will be prepared to go into cities? Once you go across this threshold and you do it repeatedly, it becomes easier and easier to repeat the precedent. I think this is an extraordinarily dangerous moment for us with an authoritarian president who's violating the Constitution left and right And now talking about developing a habit of putting the military into our cities.

1:08:11Emily Jashinsky:If we take Trump out of the picture for a moment, what do you think needs to happen in Portland? I'm curious about that. You can correct me. I mean, there have been there have been obvious, as you just mentioned, instances of political violence in Portland more than less than I should say social bar fights, for example. But bar fights maybe with some political animus behind them. So what has to happen in Portland? And I ask that as somebody who doesn't like the expansion of government power, particularly law enforcement, particularly domestically. But is it possible that there's this giant opening for Trump to seize on disorder in Portland as Democrats have let political violence fester in some cases in the city?

1:08:56Saagar Enjeti:There's been very little violence in Portland. If you walked through Portland, you would just go, this is a city on the rebound. Of the 65 largest cities in America, it had the biggest decrease in murder rates year over year, 20%. In fact, it was cut in half. It had one of the largest, 20 % decrease in violent crimes. You see the city has been rebuilding from COVID, rebuilding from the 2020 conflicts with Trump and his first administration. Things that have been closed down are starting to open back up. We see the impact of, of course, homelessness and drug use, and those impacts are less visible now as programs have ramped up to provide alternatives and assistance.

1:09:41Saagar Enjeti:Portland's been on the rebound. You would not recognize it as looking anything like what Trump has described. And if you have a few people who want to create disturbances and they've been coming late at night and throwing some stones and a very small number, that's where the local police arrest them. And that's a local police function. You throw a stone at a federal building, you put off a fireworks, save it a local building, even if it's not an ICE building, any building, that's a local police response. So there's nothing here that comes close to justifying federalization of the National Guard or sending in troops of any kind.

1:10:20Krystal Ball:And we don't have much time left, but I did want to just get your quick perspective on your trip over toward the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation's sites over there. One of the few American non-mercenaries was able to get close. How close were you able to get and what was your interaction with GHF officials? What was your takeaway? I mean, it was you and Senator Chris Van Hollen had made a trip there.

1:10:47Saagar Enjeti:And the truth was much broader than just trying to get into Gaza, though that was a goal. We were turned down by the Israeli authorities. We then arranged to participate in a Jordanian overflight where they dropped humanitarian aid. The Israelis canceled the flight. I mean, we were in Jordan with the C-130 cargo planes all getting ready to take off, and Israel canceled the flights. They didn't apparently want an American observing Gaza from the air. But then we were able to go to the border at Rafagate, where we'd also been in January of 2024. But this time we were able to go through the transition area between Egypt and Gaza because the gate shut down.

1:11:29Saagar Enjeti:And at the far end, we were able to climb an outside fire escape to the roof of a three-story building, stand on the ledge and look out over Gaza and just see, well over Gaza, but over the city of Rafa and just see everything reduced to rubble. It's one thing to see the satellite photos. It's another thing to stand there and just see it that every building blown up. This was, it was stunning because it was just such visible evidence of the strategy. a two-fold strategy of ethnic cleansing. The first strategy was destroy all the homes, not just that they're empty and the city's been emptied out and their shell holes are gone.

1:12:08Saagar Enjeti:No, everything blown up so you can't return. And the second strategy of deprivation, deprivation of food and clean water and medicine. And now we have a famine for the most vulnerable populations inside of Gaza. We have horrendous impact on children. Can you imagine two years of bombs falling, your family members dying, you've moved five or six or sometimes 10 times, no place is safe, no school can be held, malnutrition rolls into famine. And it's just, it's the international workers say worst hellhole in the world as a result of this strategy, designed to drive people out of Gaza. That was very powerful.

1:12:57Saagar Enjeti:We met with so many groups. We met with the families of the hostages. We met with soldiers who had served in Gaza. We met with international workers who had been inside. We met with World Food Program workers who had been inside. We learned about all the strategies to block the regular delivery of food that are constantly being used to extend this famine. What the same values that made me a passionate supporter for Israel are the same values that say what the Netanyahu government is doing is horrifically wrong. It's a violation of international law. It's a violation of every humanitarian or religious creed.

1:13:37Saagar Enjeti:It is just horrific. And America is complicit because of our close relationship. And we haven't used that close relationship to say hell no to the strategy of ethnic cleansing.

1:13:48Krystal Ball:And for people who don't know, Rafa is a city that dates back to the second, at least the second millennium B.C. You know, Alexander the Great was there, continuously occupied basically for something like 4 ,000 years. What was it like to see this, one of the most ancient cities on the planet, just reduced to nonexistence?

1:14:17Saagar Enjeti:You couldn't recognize anything because it's all just rubble. So you see no signs of, you couldn't make out, if you will, oh, where was something that was ancient, significant? It's all just rubble. But what really struck me was to recognize that six months earlier, a million people were in that city. And just as in Gaza City, a few months ago, a million people were in Gaza City. And now Gaza City is being raised and blown up in the same fashion. If this proceeds, you will find that you have 2 million people crowded into a small area on the very southwest corner of Gaza, which is Gaza is already a very small place.

1:15:02Saagar Enjeti:And where are they going to go? The goal is to make life so miserable that they will self-deport. American governments called it voluntary departure. There's nothing voluntary when you're being starved to death and indiscriminately bombed. So this is not all that's going wrong. You have on the West Bank another strategy, which is that green light has been given for settlers to engage in massive harassment of Palestinian villages, cutting the villagers off from their olive orchards, cutting them off from their vineyards, cutting them off from their springs or their wells, proceeding to run livestock right up into and often through these villages, and then assaulting the villagers when they leave the village itself to check on their lands or so forth.

1:15:53Saagar Enjeti:And that also is to drive everyone out of Area C basically, a de facto takeover of the West Bank. That is wrong as well. 1947 vision was two nations for the two people. The world supported and endorsed and made happen the Israeli nation, but we never solidified a Palestinian state. This is why I introduced a resolution, the first of its kind, saying to the President of the United States, we should be recognizing a Palestinian state. The failure to do so has been a festering wound that's contributed to the cycle of violence in the Middle East. And I was pleased that nine of the senators joined me.

1:16:47Saagar Enjeti:So 10 senators did something that hasn't been done before, and that is to speak up and say, we've made a mistake. Whether it was through Camp David and Oslo, and all times since we never actually recognized the legitimacy of a Palestinian state, and it's time to make that happen. I do want to say that in the peace plan the president just put forward, there's a lot of elements that are the best step I've seen this administration make towards a fast, hopefully a fast ceasefire and the start of something new and better. We need a ceasefire. We need a massive influx humanitarian. We need the return of all the hostages.

1:17:30Saagar Enjeti:We need to break this ethnic cleansing strategy. It's better for Israel to break that strategy. It's better for the Palestinians. But let's build on a ceasefire to create a prosperous, peaceful future rather than have this haunting cycle of violence infect the decades to come.

1:17:52Krystal Ball:And we'll talk more about that plan later in the program. Up next, we'll be talking about Trump and Pete Hexeth at the Pentagon. Now, Senator Jeff Merkley, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.

1:18:04Saagar Enjeti:A pleasure to be with you, Ryan and Emily. Take care. Thank you.

1:18:10Ryan Grim:In 2023, a story gripped the UK, evoking horror and disbelief. The nurse who should have been in charge of caring for tiny babies is now the most prolific child killer in modern British history. Everyone thought they knew how it ended. A verdict, a villain, a nurse named Lucy Letby. Lucy Letby has been found guilty. But what if we didn't get the whole story? The moment you look at the whole picture, the case collapses. I'm Amanda Knox and in the new podcast Doubt the case of Lucy Letby we follow the evidence and hear from the people that lived it to ask what really happened when the world decided who Lucy Letby was no voicing of any skepticism or doubt it'll cause so much harm at every single level of the British establishment of this is wrong listen to Doubt the case of Lucy Letby on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts Hi, this is Jo Winterstein, host of the Spirit Daughter Podcast, where we talk about astrology, natal charts, and how to step into your most vibrant life.

1:19:20Ryan Grim:And I just sat down with a mini driver. The Irish traveler said when I was 16, you're going to have a terrible time with men. Actor, storyteller, and unapologetic Aquarian visionary. Aquarius is all about freedom loving and different perspectives. and I find a lot of people with strong placements in Aquarius like are misunderstood. A sun and Venus in Aquarius in her seventh house spark her unconventional approach to partnership. He really has taught me to embrace people sleeping in different rooms, on different houses, in different places, but just an embracing of the is-ness of it all. If you're navigating your own transformation or just want a chart-side view into how a leading artist integrates astrology, creativity, and real life, This episode is a must listen.

1:20:07Ryan Grim:Listen to the Spirit Daughter podcast starting on February 24th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcast. What if mind control is real?

1:20:19Joe Vaclavik:If you could control the behavior of anybody around you, what kind of life would you have?

1:20:22Ryan Grim:Can you hypnotically persuade someone to buy a car?

1:20:25Joe Vaclavik:When you look at your car, you're going to become overwhelmed with such good feelings.

1:20:29Ryan Grim:Can you hypnotize someone into sleeping with you?

1:20:32Joe Vaclavik:I gave her some suggestions to be sexually aroused.

1:20:36Ryan Grim:Can you get someone to join your cult? NLP was used on me to access my subconscious. NLP, aka Neuro Linguistic Programming, is a blend of hypnosis, linguistics, and psychology. Fans say it's like finally getting a user manual for your brain.

1:20:52Joe Vaclavik:It's about engineering consciousness.

1:20:54Ryan Grim:Mind Games is the story of NLP. its crazy cast of disciples, and the fake doctor who invented it at a New Age commune and sold it to guys in suits. He stood trial for murder and got acquitted. The biggest mind game of all? NLP might actually work. This is wild. Listen to Mind Games on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:21:20Emily Jashinsky:Well, last week you may have been worried, does. Even some people from home that I grew up with were texting me if I had any idea about what this mysterious meeting, this gathering of generals at the Pentagon was all about. You may have been concerned that we were going to war, Secretary of War, as we're now calling it. I think, Ryan, that moniker is more accurate anyway. He left news consumers and military leaders fairly uncomfortable after he abruptly announced that they were planning this massive meeting of generals from around the world, flew everybody in here to D.C. where we headed into war.

1:21:55Emily Jashinsky:Was it this grand PR exercise? You guessed it. We talked about on last Friday's show what it could be. I speculated if it was war, maybe it was in our own hemisphere. We'll get to that in just a moment, actually, towards the end of the show, what we could be seeing in our own hemisphere. But it was...

1:22:11Krystal Ball:My source at the time, remember, he said, this is just a giant Trump. He was like, yes. Stupid exercise. He nailed it. He did nail it. And my life is filled with regrets, of course, but one of them is that I had multiple sources over the last seven months telling me, Hexeth keeps saying he wants to change this to the Department of War.

1:22:28Emily Jashinsky:Oh my gosh, you ignored it.

1:22:29Krystal Ball:And I was like, that's too stupid to report. Like, I believe, I'm not saying I don't believe you, but make me look like a moron. Who cares, yeah. Float that. He's talking about that. No, he actually did it.

1:22:41Emily Jashinsky:He did it. He did it.

1:22:42Krystal Ball:Anyway.

1:22:43Emily Jashinsky:So War Secretary of State, You're going to want to see some of these clips because what Hexeth did basically was gather everyone for a pep talk that doubled as him making different points about like DEI stuff and also rules of war. We're going to get into that in just a moment as well. And also a photo op for the military to, you know, sort of like the parade that happened in the summer. Look on the global stage and nationally like it's putting its best foot forward, which I won't deny is I actually think that's important. But this was this is something else. Let's go ahead and roll our first clip here.

1:23:26Joe Vaclavik:very much value the impact of female troops. Our female officers and NCOs are the absolute best in the world. But when it comes to any job that requires physical power to perform in combat, those physical standards must be high and gender neutral. If women can make it, excellent. If not, it is what it is. If that means no women qualify for some combat jobs, so be it. That is not the intent, but it could be the result. So be it. This also means grooming standards. No more beards, long hair, superficial individual expression. We're going to cut our hair, shave our beards, and adhere to standards.

1:24:12Joe Vaclavik:Because it's like the broken windows theory of policing. It's like when you let the small stuff go, the big stuff eventually goes. So you have to address the small stuff. This is on duty, in the field, and in the rear. If you want a beard, you can join special forces. If not, then shave. We don't have a military full of Nordic pagans. But unfortunately, we have had leaders who either refused to call BS and enforce standards or leaders who felt like they were not allowed to enforce standards. Both are unacceptable. And that's why today at My Direction, the era of unprofessional appearance is over.

1:24:51Joe Vaclavik:No more beardos. It all starts with physical fitness and appearance. If the Secretary of War can do regular hard PT, so can every member of our Joint Force. Frankly, it's tiring to look out at combat formations or really any formation and see fat troops. Likewise, it's completely unacceptable to see fat generals and admirals in the halls of the Pentagon and leading commands around the country and the world. It's a bad look. Every member of the joint force at every rank is required to take a PT test twice a year.

1:25:26Emily Jashinsky:I mean, he also said, Ryan, more seriously, quote, We unleash overwhelming and punishing violence on the enemy. We also don't want to fight with stupid rules of engagement. We untie the hands of our warfighters to intimidate, demoralize, hunt, and kill the enemies of our country. No more politically correct and overbearing rules of engagement. Hexth has been a supporter of people who have been accused of violating laws related to war crimes.

1:25:48Krystal Ball:He was a big advocate for Eddie Gallagher. Right, not accused.

1:25:51Emily Jashinsky:He was openly an advocate for Eddie Gallagher.

1:25:53Krystal Ball:Yeah, war criminal, like convicted war criminal, who all of his comrades called a complete sociopath, who stabbing and shooting people, like innocent civilians. And so, like, if your bar is Eddie Gallagher, then you are lifting and removing what so many people take pride in when it comes to the U.S. military, which is this idea that you actually do protect civilian lives.

1:26:27Emily Jashinsky:What did you think of this line?

1:26:28Krystal Ball:That's what separates the U.S. military. Obviously, I'm a criticism of the U.S. military, but that is a sacred belief that people have. And he's saying, forget that.

1:26:38Emily Jashinsky:Just stray away. Quote, the new compass heading is clear. Out with the Chiarellis, the McKenzies, and the Millies, and in with the Stocksdales, the Schwarzkopf, and the Pattons. Did you catch that one? Yeah, and Patton, you know, famously got in trouble for, like, you know, slapping a private, I think in Italy, right, during that campaign.

1:27:03Krystal Ball:Yeah, so, yes, he's, I was, when he was talking, I was like, wait a minute, is he coming after the special forces here because the guys with the tattoos and the beards are in the special forces. And then he carves them out.

1:27:17Emily Jashinsky:Right.

1:27:17Krystal Ball:Like, what are we doing here?

1:27:18Emily Jashinsky:Well, he says you can go to the special forces if you want your beard. So Donald Trump also joined the gathering as well. Let's go ahead and roll B2.

1:27:27Saagar Enjeti:We should use some of these dangerous cities as training grounds for our military, National Guard, but military, because we're going into Chicago very soon.

1:27:37Ryan Grim:That's a big city with an incompetent governor, stupid governor, stupid. I thought it would be met with fury on the left, but they're sort of giving up. I must be honest with you. They've had it. They've had it with Trump. I really thought that we were going to have to sort of fight it through. There's been no fight. There's been no fight. Don't laugh. Don't laugh. You're not allowed to do that. You know what? Just have a good time.

1:28:00Joe Vaclavik:And if you want to applaud, you applaud. And if you want to do anything you want, you can do anything you want. And if you don't like what I'm saying, you can leave the room. Of course, there goes your rank.

1:28:10Ryan Grim:There goes your future. And I'm not a fan of some of the ships you do. I'm a very aesthetic person. I don't like some of the ships you're doing aesthetically. They say, oh, it's stealth. They say, that's not stealth. An ugly ship is not necessary in order to say you're stealth.

1:28:29Emily Jashinsky:Who you're missing is Ryan Lucian. This guy.

1:28:33Krystal Ball:This guy. Unbelievable.

1:28:35Emily Jashinsky:Take a look at this picture. Let's put this element up on the screen. This is B3. Doug Mills in the New York Times snapped a picture of military leaders after Trump's speech looking ashen, stone-faced. Any other descriptions come to mind, Ryan?

1:28:50Krystal Ball:You know, questioning their life choices.

1:28:53Emily Jashinsky:Nonplussed.

1:28:53Krystal Ball:Yes.

1:28:56Emily Jashinsky:You know, it was, at least we're not going to war. Right, it was not a war meeting. We probably are still going to war. But we didn't announce some type of like major World War III operation yesterday. So that's the silver lining, I guess.

1:29:12Krystal Ball:Yeah, Trump like talking about we're going to make major American cities training grounds for the American military. Like that's just an incredible place for us to be as a country. Like if you said that that was what Trump was planning to do a year ago, you would be accused of inciting violence against Republicans for blaspheming their good patriotic name. And here he is. No, that's actually what we're going to do.

1:29:40Emily Jashinsky:Let's put B4 up on the screen. This is about a report in the Daily Mail. This is Daily Beast covering the Daily Mail. The Daily Mail report is suggesting that Pete Hegseth, according to leaks, has been especially paranoid after Charlie Kirk's death, which is completely understandable, I think. But that he and his wife are at least seeming to be sort of even deeper entrenched mentality. And, you know, it's a tabloid story, I think, worth keeping in mind. You know, we've we've seen the rebranding as Department of War, which I think happened actually right before Charlie Kirk died. Maybe the day that Charlie Kirk died, if not a couple of days before.

1:30:20Emily Jashinsky:But also this new or this high profile meeting and tensions in Venezuela are heating up. So, you know, the leaks aren't good either. The leaks are going to fuel that sense of paranoia. If this makes it into the Daily Mail in a meta sense, that's going to make the Secretary of War, Ryan, even more paranoid.

1:30:40Krystal Ball:Yeah. And so Pentagon insiders tell of explosive tantrums and erratic behavior, quote, crawling out of his skin. What the Daily Mail and people were saying like, oh, it sounds like he's on the sauce again. That's not how I read it. I read it as this is a dry drunk, you know, who is going through. Basically, untreated withdrawal withdrawal. all. Like if you are a serious alcoholic and you just go cold turkey, this type of crawling out of your skin behavior can be a thing. Somebody was saying that he was seen drinking a Bud Light at a football game or something, but I don't know, maybe that doesn't even count.

1:31:24Emily Jashinsky:I don't know. I mean, I think honestly, like put all of everything that's been reported about Pete Hegseth, which I'm pretty skeptical. I've met Pete Hegseth a couple of times. I don't necessarily think that he has a drinking problem right now, but put all of that aside because I'm sure there are people who have different stories or whatever, but I mean, I guess a lot of them were from the past. Either way, all this is to say, what happened to Charlie Kirk, we covered it at the time, the ramifications, we're not even talking about a Charlie Kirk related story here, But the ramifications on the right are going to be significant in ways that aren't always obvious.

1:32:05Emily Jashinsky:And some of that might be just stoking intense paranoia about personal security in ways that can push people in dangerous directions. I think, Ryan, I mean, because when you're paranoid, a lot of paranoia becomes irrational, can start in a rational place. I think it's rational for public figures right now to be paranoid after the cold blooded assassination of somebody. So, yes, but that can have consequences just on a personal psychological level. So I don't know if that's what's going on. But this meeting, I guess I'm just grateful, was not some major war announcement. And that's a low bar, perhaps.

1:32:44Krystal Ball:And we'll get to that later in the show.

1:32:46Emily Jashinsky:Yes, that might not be announced. It might just happen. It sure as hell won't be voted on.

1:32:50Krystal Ball:No, it won't.

1:32:51Emily Jashinsky:If you thought that Congress needed to take us to war. No. Boy, you've been proven wrong. Ryan, let's go ahead and get to the flotilla.

1:32:59Krystal Ball:So we had planned to make this segment about the potential interception of the Samud flotilla that is heading to Gaza. That was expected to come overnight because the flotilla has now entered the nautical mileage space at which each flotilla before them has been intercepted by Israeli Navy. But still smooth sailing. Fascinating.

1:33:24Emily Jashinsky:Literally smooth sailing.

1:33:25Krystal Ball:Yeah, smooth sailing. Well, I think rough seas, but otherwise smooth sailing, headed towards the Gaza shore. So we will keep you updated as that unfolds. But instead, let's talk about what else we were going to talk about in this segment, which is updates on the Trump-Netanyahu take-it-or-leave-it offer that he made to the Palestinians. But also, incredible developments when it comes to the kind of propaganda side. So recently you had Netanyahu meeting with a bunch of influencers, which, you know, and he said, like, the way that we're going to respond to the problems that Israel's message image is facing worldwide is we're going to have our influencers go out there and make the case on TikTok.

1:34:12Krystal Ball:And he also said the most important thing to do is to purchase TikTok. Like that was his word. And Larry Ellison, a close ally of Israel through Oracle, is indeed doing that. But incredible discovery in a FAR filing by Quincy Institute researcher Nick Cleveland-Stout. You can put this C1 up on the screen. New document reveals the Israeli government paying a cohort of 14 to 18 social media influencers between$6 ,100 and$7 ,300 per post.

1:34:48Emily Jashinsky:The show is now fully in support of Israel. Our coverage will only be supportive of Israel. $7 ,000 a post every time we post about it.

1:34:55Krystal Ball:So if we do, let's say, if we do a 15-minute segment that's slobbering about Israel and then we cut it up into like 15 different clips.

1:35:06Emily Jashinsky:We'd be so rich.

1:35:07Krystal Ball:Can we cash 7 ,000 each?

1:35:09Emily Jashinsky:We're leaving a lot of money on the table.

1:35:11Krystal Ball:That is big money. That is a lot of money. So we don't yet know the identities of these 14 to 18 social media. We can guess. We can certainly guess.

1:35:21Emily Jashinsky:That would be a fun game.

1:35:22Krystal Ball:It's like a game show. I think a week ago, Brianna Wu announced that she'd be going to TikTok to start doing pro-Israel content. I don't know if she's getting paid or not, but interesting. Guess the pro-Israel influencers. It's like interesting timing. Amazing. $7 ,000 per post. And so we've seen some of the, I don't know if these are the influencers getting paid, but we've seen, you know, you see a lot of posts that have started to circulate. So I'm curious for your take on this. I think that they are now they have endless amounts of money. And also DropSite, as DropSite reported, citing Haaretz, actually, that Israel just approved another$40 million boost to their global propaganda budget.

1:36:11Krystal Ball:This is on top of$150 million increase over what they had already been doing. $24 million of that is for, quote, global influence campaigns. And$16 million is to finance international delegations visiting Israel. So these are the, whether it's lawmakers or influencers, they fund your trip. flights from New York to Tel Aviv, nice hotels, free food and drinks, travel. Your entire trip is paid for. They send good-looking IDF soldiers around with you. It's like this whole shtick.

1:36:54Emily Jashinsky:Hegseth type of soldiers.

1:36:55Krystal Ball:Yeah, exactly. BMI is appropriate for that. Hegseth would be not ashamed. No beards. And try to give them a good time and then they go back and they have warm feelings and they meet people who dangle future opportunities. This is much more direct. Like here's$7 ,000. Say something nice about us on TikTok. And then they have the problem of, oh, but nobody wants to hear that. So then they take over TikTok and juice the algorithm so that you have to hear it. Like it's just gonna show up in your For You page.

1:37:33Emily Jashinsky:Well, that's an important point. So this is something that Nick Cleveland Stout reports over at Quincy, which is, I actually think, getting underreported. This is coming from Brad Parscale also.

1:37:48Krystal Ball:Former Trump campaign manager, right?

1:37:49Emily Jashinsky:Right. And part of this is also about, I'm trying to find the exact part where Nick mentions this, but part of it is also about gaming chat GPT and AI search engine. It's like specifically in what Nick reports on. He has a new – this is what it is. So he did a follow-up. And it outlines the Brad Parscale of it all. And Brad Parscale is also – this is coming to Salem Media Group. Did you catch this part of it? So Clock Tower, I think that's Parscale's group, will integrate its pro-Israel messaging into Salem Media Network properties. He's a conservative Christian media group that boasts a vast radio network and produces high profile shows such as Hugh Hewitt, Larry Elder, Right View with Laura Trump.

1:38:36Emily Jashinsky:In April, the conservative media network announced Donald Trump Jr. and Laura Trump as significant stakeholders in the new company. Salem Media Network did not respond to a question clarifying whether it would be compensated by Clock Tower for promoting messages on behalf of Israel or how these messages would be integrated. That is American media. That is actually some conservative news outlets that could be then infiltrated by paid propaganda. There's a difference. And that's not a distinction without a difference. Propaganda is propaganda, yes. When people are actually getting paid by a foreign government to do propaganda in ostensible news outlets, that's a completely different ballgame.

1:39:09Krystal Ball:Yeah, so follow the money here. So, well, I guess the money starts in the United States. So it is American taxpayer money. So then we subsidize Israel. Israel uses the money then to send to Brad Parscale, the Trump campaign manager, who then gives it to Lara Trump and other people, presumably. in order to foist Israeli propaganda into these media properties because ChatGPT is trained to believe that these media properties have some level of reliability and substance to them. Because ChatGPT is probably told, you know, don't just, you know, scrape things from government propaganda websites and then believe it to be the case.

1:39:52Krystal Ball:It's more reliable to trust news sources rather than direct propaganda. So you pay to have the propaganda then smothered into the news properties, these right-wing news properties. And then ChatGPT absorbs it into its code. And then when you ask ChatGPT, you know, is Israel good? ChatGPT responds based on the raw material that it's producing from these news shows, which then also can, then they have Wikipedia armies that then try to edit Wikipedia articles sourcing to these news shows that they have fought internally inside Wikipedia to get labeled as credible news sources. and then you tilt Wikipedia and then Wikipedia becomes raw material for ChatGPT and other AI as well.

1:40:46Krystal Ball:Because within a few years, everyone's understanding of reality will be shaped by whatever these AIs tell them is the reality. So there's this massive arms race to shape what that reality is going to look like.

1:41:00Emily Jashinsky:And by the way, this happened right after, and Nick mentions this. We probably mentioned this on the show, but the SKDK Knickerbocker campaign to run a bot farm for the Israeli narratives on social media.

1:41:12Krystal Ball:Which is related to that Stagra group thing that we reported on. Yeah.

1:41:14Emily Jashinsky:Right. Yeah, exactly. So this is coming, lest you think it is just conservative media that's being infiltrated, Democrats are taking money to infiltrate social media with these narratives as well, which is man.

1:41:29Krystal Ball:No, and it can't happen a moment too soon for Israel because let's take a look at the trash that they're currently putting out. Put up C2. So Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday put out this post saying, exposed official Hamas documents. And that's when everybody is like, oh, my God, official Hamas documents. Yeah, sure. Found in the Gaza Strip. Now revealed for the first time. Turns out they tried to reveal these exact same documents in June. And they think we all forgot about it. prove Hamas's direct involvement in the funding and execution of the Samud flotilla to Gaza. Huge news, if true.

1:42:12Krystal Ball:You then poke a little bit further into it, and it turns out none of this is remotely true. But they write, Hamas documents that were discovered in the Gaza Strip and are being revealed for the first time again, not true, show a direct link between the flotilla leaders and the Hamas terrorist organization. The way they try to put this together, they say The Palestinian Conference for Palestinians Abroad was established in 2018 and functions as Hamas's representative body abroad, operating de facto as Hamas embassies. The organization operates under the pretense of civilian cover and is responsible on behalf of Hamas for mobilizing actions against Israel.

1:42:48Krystal Ball:So then it says, first official Hamas document was found in the Gaza Strip, a letter from 2021 signed by head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Hania, directly and explicitly calling on the PCPA chairman for unity. So let's pretend, and I posted this on Twitter and said this should be a critical thinking test for like students in a class on propaganda. So let's pretend for a second that all of this, everything that they're saying within the four corners of this is true. Huge, gigantic if, but let's just pretend. Let's say they have a letter from Hania, who they assassinated in Tehran in his bedroom, that is calling on the PCPA chairman for unity in 2021.

1:43:30Krystal Ball:So here, put on your critical thinking hat. If Hania has to ask the PCPA for unity, does Hamas run the PCPA? Think that one through. If they're not happy with whatever the PCPA is doing, why are they out there asking for unity? Separately, this is 2021. Was this Samud Flotilla class organized in 2021? Anyway.

1:44:01Emily Jashinsky:If you're just listening to this, you're missing Ryan's facial expression.

1:44:05Krystal Ball:So anyway, Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs is in desperate need of help. So this$40 million boost, it couldn't come a moment too soon. And good Lord, these 14 to 18 TikTokers are going to have their work cut out for them. Can you imagine being fed this stuff? Be like, all right, for$7 ,000, make a post about how this is true. And let's imagine for a second that you have critical thinking skills and you read this and you're like, oh my God, this is what you're going with. And I haven't even mentioned yet that they put up some documents, they put up some photos with Greta and then circled a guy in red.

1:44:44Krystal Ball:The guy in red is George Galloway, who's a British citizen and former member of parliament, who, in Israel's defense, is pretty, like, Hezbollah and Hamas sympathetic. Like he will like he look up any interviews with him. He's he's fun to watch. Very like articulate and passionate defender of armed resistance to colonialism all over the globe. But he's not the guy they're saying he is.

1:45:15Emily Jashinsky:Right.

1:45:15Krystal Ball:Getting it wrong. You're getting it wrong here. And also it's George Galloway. So what's your point? You found Greta in a picture with George Galloway. This is your evidence. and again like I said this is pretending that all of this is actually authentic and true which is which is a gigantic if what what why it's serious is that this is this is the kinds of things they do before they take violent action against in this instance the flotilla to try to say like actually

1:45:46Emily Jashinsky:the flotilla is Hamas right and that's why we had to blow it out of the water

1:45:51Krystal Ball:Let's hope that this is not the case.

1:45:53Emily Jashinsky:Priming the pump. Yeah. So anyway, a quick update as well on the savage attacks on Palestinians inside Gaza.

1:46:07Krystal Ball:If you thought that they were going to abate while the final discussions around the take-it-or-leave-it offer from Trump and Netanyahu are being considered, you would be wrong. We can put up this next element up on the screen. There was another double tap strike, this one in Gaza City's Al-Zaytun neighborhood, where they hit a school and then waited until paramedics and civil defense, whose job it is to get people out of the rubble, showed up at the site and then hit it again. But if you want more details on what's been going on the last 48 hours, I would just suggest you sign up for DropSite Daily.

1:46:47This is our new morning newsletter, which really goes into detail what's going on there. And then when it comes to the negotiations, two pieces of news there.

1:47:00Krystal Ball:You can put up C4. Trump was asked, how much time does Hamas get? And he said three or four days. Al Jazeera now reporting that officials from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey met in Doha on Tuesday with the Hamas negotiating delegation to go over the 20-point ceasefire plan. Hamas said it will study it with, quote, with great responsibility, which is, you know, that's not an outright rejection. And I do think they're under enormous pressure to say yes to this. And we can put up C5. Um, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which is kind of the second largest, um, resistance faction in the coalition, uh, initially, um, came out with a pretty blunt, not rejection, but condemnation of it.

1:47:51Krystal Ball:I think nobody wants to say that this is going to be good because if it does go into place, Palestinians will be living with the consequences of it for years to come and don't, they don't want their to say to endorse it, but that's different than trying to find a way to accept it. And so a PIJ spokesperson is out, again, kind of condemning it, but also saying that, you know, they want Palestinian unity and they want the Palestinian Authority to agree to it. This is a kind of hold hands and jump type of statement. So you can read it here, very critical of it. And they're trying to get the Arab countries, they say if Arabs have a real role, they must pressure Trump to adopt their statement because the 21-point plan that the Arab leaders agreed to became a 20-point significantly edited plan after they met with Netanyahu.

1:48:46Krystal Ball:They're saying, can we at least go back to that initial one? I doubt they'll be able to do that. So they'll have a couple days before they respond. But I've asked a whole bunch of different Palestinians and Gaza what their take is on this. And to a person, they say, like, we just want this to end. Like, it doesn't, this terrible deal, but we just want this to end under any circumstances, under any condition. People are just, people are starving to death and living in tents if they're lucky. Like, it's actually pretty hard to get a tent, let alone food and water and access to medical care. So people just want this to stop.

1:49:26Krystal Ball:And so I think you're so I think the Hamas will come back with some type of yes, with some tweaks.

1:49:33Emily Jashinsky:Right. With some tweaks.

1:49:34Krystal Ball:And we'll see if Netanyahu uses the attempt to get some tweaks to then just restart the war.

1:49:39Emily Jashinsky:It's all, yeah. And it's very possible, obviously, as you guys have reported, that it was a giant pretext because Donald Trump and Netanyahu, I was there, I was at the press conference, made a point of emphasizing we can do this the easy way or the hard way. And that Netanyahu will be able to, as they said, Israel will be able to take care of the rest itself. So not an unfair reading of the agreement they worked on.

1:50:06Krystal Ball:So meanwhile, let's get to the soypocalypse hitting American farmers.

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1:53:21Krystal Ball:So last week, the Treasury Department announced a$20 billion bailout of the chainsaw-wielding Argentinian libertarian president, Javier Millet, which actually turned out to be a backdoor bailout of American hedge funds and China. Meanwhile, it is driving soybean farmers in the United States absolutely mad. Let's roll J.D. Scholten, a lawmaker from Iowa, talking about the effect of this trade war on soybean farmers in Iowa.

1:53:56Joe Vaclavik:Trump's illegal terrorists have single-handedly destroyed the U.S. soybean market. As of yesterday, the price of soybeans is about$9.34 here in Iowa. The cost of production is anywhere from$11 to$11.50. So per bushel of soybeans, it's about a$2 loss. And when you add the fact that it's about 50 bushels and an acre of soybeans here, you can do the math to see how bad things are. Historically, 60 percent of Iowa soybeans have gone to China. With Trump's trade wars from his first administration, the U.S. has become an unreliable supplier. So instead of these soybeans going to China, it's soybeans from South America, like places like Brazil and Argentina.

1:54:37Joe Vaclavik:That leads to more grains going to be left in the bin, which means to oversupply, which means to lower prices. So here's what we need to do. We need to demand trade, not aid. Farmers don't want to bail out. They want markets. The second thing we need to do is push for competition, both on the market side and especially on the input side with seed and fertilizer costs.

1:54:57Krystal Ball:So that's J.D. Scholten, an Iowa Democratic lawmaker who's actually a former minor league pitcher.

1:55:01Emily Jashinsky:Really? Yeah.

1:55:02Krystal Ball:And he's a big antitrust guy. But you don't have to take it from the populist left. Chuck Grassley, if you want to call him a populist, I don't know, Iowa senator, had one of his classic no punctuation random caps tweets where he says farmers very upset about Argentina selling soybeans to China right after USA bailout. Still zero USA soybeans sold to China. Meanwhile, China is still hitting USA with 20 percent retaliatory tariff. Need China trade deal now. Farmers need markets to boost farm economy. I mean, he still uses number two because he doesn't know that you can actually just tweet past the one.

1:55:41Krystal Ball:Probably didn't know about the 140 character limit. So basically what's going on is that, as J.D. Scholten said there, China buys more than half of Iowa's soybeans every year. Uh, in 2017 and 18, uh, Trump started a trade war with China, uh, and China retaliated by at the time building a, uh, relationships with a bunch of Brazilian, um, soy farmers. What they also did is they started investing in Brazil because, uh, Brazil didn't have the infrastructure and the export technology and the, on the onsite storage, uh, to really meet Chinese demand. They don't, and they don't have the economic base to do it on their own.

1:56:20Krystal Ball:So China was like, oh, the United States is going to play games. Well, why don't we invest in Brazil and make it so that they are a more stable partner? So now, Brazilian soybean production since 2018, when Trump first started his trade war with China, has almost doubled. So Brazil now can feed China a lot more effectively than they could nearly 10 years ago when Trump started this. Argentina is the other big player.

1:56:45Emily Jashinsky:Which, by the way, that is a preview of what could potentially come 10 years after this current trade war on different issues, not even just soybeans.

1:56:51Krystal Ball:Exactly. Yes. We think that with this trade war, that we're positioning America for this renaissance. In fact, we're just encouraging other countries to figure out ways of existing without us.

1:57:04Emily Jashinsky:Which is, I mean, there are circumstances where that may be fine. But in this case, you're a soybean farmer.

1:57:12Krystal Ball:You're a soybean

1:57:12Emily Jashinsky:Right, exactly. And I think, Grant, it speaks to the level of strategy that's actually at play, as opposed to just like slapping crazy numbers out there or on different countries, slapping these numbers on there. But like there was obviously not a lot of thought about what was happening with Argentina and soybeans when the bailout happened. It was hedge fund guys are freaking out and we like Millet. It wasn't a what are they going to turn around and do with soybeans in China? And I think that's actually an important insight into the process.

1:57:46Krystal Ball:Yeah, exactly. And in a moment, we'll be joined by Joe Voslavik from the Grain Markets and Other Stuff podcast, which I love that they describe themselves as the biggest grain market podcast in the world on planet Earth.

1:57:58Emily Jashinsky:Love it.

1:57:59Krystal Ball:Gotta love that. So they'll talk to us about what the effects have been on the grain market. But yes, the hedge funds and Scott Besson, former hedge fund guy. Are you ever a former hedge fund guy?

1:58:11Emily Jashinsky:It's like CIA.

1:58:11Krystal Ball:Exactly. But American hedge funds, when Millet was elected, were like, oh, this is great. We're going long on Argentina because Millet is going to do the thing we love. He's going to brutalize the unions and the poor and cut the government spending. And as a result, foreign capital is going to flow into Argentina and the economy is going to grow. So they put all their chips in on Argentina doing great. Instead, what everybody else predicted is what happened. The economy further deteriorated and fell apart. And so now these hedge funds were looking at huge losses on their stupid bets. Turns out they were smart because they got the economics wrong, but they got the politics right.

1:58:50Krystal Ball:And Besant is coming in and bailing out all of these hedge funds now. Now, at the same time that Argentina is getting this$20 billion bailout, they announce that they are cutting their export tariffs for soybeans, which slashes the cost of soybeans and China instantly buys enormous amounts of Argentinian soybeans. But don't take it from me because, you know, who wants to believe me? So Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, Trump's Ag Secretary, texts Scott Besant, and somebody named J.G.

1:59:31Emily Jashinsky:And we know this because a photographer, I think it's Jeffrey Goldberg,

1:59:37Krystal Ball:he's he is in the chats he's still getting in the chats probably ustr probably jameson greer the u.s trade representative that would make a lot of sense um but making sense is not always what drives these things so let's just pretend it's jeffrey goldberg i actually texted uh jeffrey goldberg yesterday i was like look you're still in these chats he did not respond so maybe he is uh so anyway uh she texts scott besant and jg um which we assume is greer and so she writes and also so this is besant getting lit up in the meeting and letting somebody photograph an

2:00:13Emily Jashinsky:associated press photographer got a snap on his phone so the text says um i'm getting more intel

2:00:18Krystal Ball:this is brooke to best at besant jg i'm getting more intel but this is highly unfortunate we bailed out argentina yesterday parentheses besant so just to him so that james and grier doesn't catch any or jeffrey goldberg doesn't catch any strays in this text message chain and in return the Argentines removed their export tariffs on grains, reducing their price, and sold a bunch of soybeans to China at a time when we would normally be selling to China. Soy prices dropping further because of it. This gives China more leverage on us. On a plane, but Scott, I can call you when I land.

2:00:54Emily Jashinsky:Did nobody think about this? It's a rhetorical question.

2:00:58Krystal Ball:No, clearly nobody thought because they don't care. The hedge fund guys were looking at losses and Millet. And Besant said in his public statement when he made the bailout that the reason he was doing it is that Millet has an upcoming important election. Yes. And he wants Millet to win the election because then that will bring more investment into Argentina. So he is out loud saying that the United States is using American taxpayer money to intervene in Argentina's election.

2:01:25Emily Jashinsky:He's saying it out loud. And to undermine, then, American soybean farmers. We have a lot of different—I have a lot of questions for our guests about Matt Stoller's analysis of this and what the Trump administration is doing to help, like, maybe assuage concerns of farmers and people in the ag industry overall. all, but that is the text message is such a great insight into the illusion of grand strategy.

2:01:50Krystal Ball:Yeah. Right.

2:01:51Emily Jashinsky:And again, geopolitically.

2:01:53Krystal Ball:What'd you call it? Very unfortunate. Highly unfortunate.

2:01:55Emily Jashinsky:The geopolitically. We did it.

2:01:57Krystal Ball:It's not like a flood.

2:01:58Emily Jashinsky:Right. Argentina is, from the Trump administration's perspective, geopolitically a very important ally when you have Venezuela, when you have Colombia and what are perceived of like anti-emigrant American administrations, especially like as we've covered before, the pink wave taking over some of those countries, they want to keep Argentina happy, obviously, because they want to have that, what do we even call it, like a bastion of pro-American allyship in a big country in the middle of South America. So geopolitically, you see where they're coming from, like why they're doing what they're doing.

2:02:39Emily Jashinsky:But obviously they didn't even, Argentina would take the bailout if the condition was soybean. Like if the condition was not selling, was not undercutting American soybean.

2:02:49Krystal Ball:You can't screw us.

2:02:49Emily Jashinsky:Yes. They would take the bailout.

2:02:52Krystal Ball:We didn't even think to ask them not to screw us because we don't care. But also, can you imagine if Democrats had this type of solidarity instead of viciousness towards South and Central America? If Biden had offered a $20 billion line of credit to instead of sanctioning Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba, you would not have had the migration crisis. Like Biden drove the migration crisis with his policies towards Central America, Venezuela, and Cuba, which then helped bring Trump back to power. If they had done something like this instead, people would still be in their homes and in in their neighborhoods in Cuba and Venezuela and Nicaragua and elsewhere.

2:03:38Krystal Ball:Anyway, so let's bring in Joe from the Grain Market podcast. Let's do it. And get some details on how this is playing out. Joining us now is Joe Vaklavik from the Grain Markets and Other Stuff podcast. Joe reached out yesterday saying he'd seen some of my coverage, I guess, on TikTok or whatever. I don't think we covered it here yet, and offered to provide some of his expertise, because this is really your area. So Joe, thanks so much for being here. Really appreciate it. Yeah, I'm happy to be here. I'm a big fan of the show. I've been watching Breaking Point since the very beginning. I love it.

2:04:14Krystal Ball:Love it. So I don't know if you were able to see the beginning of the show, but you've seen my shtick on this already. Tell us like what is the effect of Trump's trade war generally so far on, and we'll start at that high level, on the American soybean market.

2:04:33Joe Vaclavik:If we want to do high level, I'd like to backtrack a little bit just to give you kind of an overview of what's going on. The U.S. farm economy, as it relates to our big cash crops, corn and soybeans, and the farmers that grow those crops, we are in now what I would argue is the third year of a farm economy recession. A lot of this goes back to COVID and the inflation that occurred in the post-COVID environment. So we know that everything on the planet repriced in the years following COVID, right? We know that to be true. The government number, CPI, would all indicate that that is true. The very same thing has happened to farm inputs, the things that farmers have to buy to grow their crops, whether it's seed, fertilizer, machinery, all of those things are up.

2:05:14Joe Vaclavik:Corn production costs jumped 26 % from 2021 to 2022. So we're in the backdrop here of this big inflation event. A lot of that is just generalized inflation. A lot of it's because the government threw billions and billions of dollars at farmers during and following COVID. So you've got all that. And it's a low margin business, right? If you're a corn farmer. Historically, always a low margin business, highly cyclical. You go through years where you're breakeven to negative in terms of profit margins. And then you go through a couple of boom years. We had a couple of boom years, uh, 2021 and 2022 were really good.

2:05:47Joe Vaclavik:Remember we've been through this trade thing, trade war thing before. And the last go around was rough. 18, 19 were rough. China signs the phase one trade deal in 2020. And they did, as a matter of fact, come in and they bought a whole bunch of us corn and a whole bunch of us soybeans in late 2020 into 21 and into 22. And everything that happened in 2022 is crazy. We had Russia, Ukraine, big commodity price blow up, and everything just fell apart after that, mainly because we had big production. We had good weather in the US. We had good weather in Brazil. And these markets, the commodity markets that we deal with, they're generally speaking, they're weather derivatives.

2:06:22Joe Vaclavik:If the weather's good, the prices go down. If the weather's bad, the prices go up. So that's the backdrop. The trade war with China is icing on the cake here in terms of the farm economy and how bad it is and how much money farmers are going to lose. Last year, China accounted for 19 % of all demand for soybeans grown in the United States. About 55 % of it is our beans that we crush domestically. There's about 40-ish percent that's exports. And of that 40-ish percent, China's roughly half of it, basically. Pardon my math if it's not perfect, but China's a big soybean buyer or was. Now we're into a new marketing year.

2:06:58Joe Vaclavik:Farmers in the U.S. have begun soybean harvest. China has not bought a single bushel of U.S. soybeans for current marketing your delivery. And therein lies the problem.

2:07:08Emily Jashinsky:Now, talk to us about how significant what happened with Argentina in the last couple of days is for soybean. I mean, everyone on the surface looks at that and is like, this is insane. This bailout is insane. What Argentina does is insane. But how significant is it from the perspective of soybean farmers?

2:07:24Joe Vaclavik:Optically, it's an absolute disaster for the Trump administration. It looks very, very, very bad. So the$20 billion in question, it hasn't happen yet. And it's supposed to be a swap line, meaning that we're going to give Argentina 20 billion in dollars. They're going to give us 20 billion in pesos. We assume a whole bunch of currency risk, but we get political influence in Argentina. So as this was happening, these were all like simultaneous events. Argentina dropped its export tax on soybeans and corn. And China came in and bought a whole bunch of like 40 cargoes of soybeans out of Argentina during that tax holiday um it just it looks very bad optically fundamentally you know it's a couple million metric tons of business that in all likelihood would have gone to the united states almost certainly this time of year the time of year that we ship the most soybeans out of the united states is immediately post-harvest like call it october 1st uh through maybe mid-january and after that the brazilian crop comes online china buys from them so it's uh it's a very bad look optically and it doesn't help in terms of dollars and cents either.

2:08:27Krystal Ball:Yeah, and you and I were talking briefly about this last night, and that really struck me. So it's because of the cycles of harvest, Brazil and U.S., different hemispheres, so different harvest cycles. And so typically the fall, we'd be moving our soybeans to China. So if China can make it through the fall into the winter, when Brazil really fully comes online, they might be able to wait us out the whole time and buy nothing. Is that possible? Like, is there enough? Are there enough soybeans in the world for them to buy elsewhere through the fall?

2:09:04Joe Vaclavik:Yes, there are. What could happen, though, is is China prefers to keep healthy stocks of soybeans on hand. They don't want to draw down their stocks. Brazilian supplies this time of year kind of become exhausted. They've already they're already through their big shipping window. China's bought a little bit from Argentina. This is a debate in the grain industry right now. Can China actually make it to the Brazilian harvest without any U.S. soybeans? And if so, what's the impact? Are they going to draw down stocks? Are they going to risk drawing down stocks? We don't know. At this point, I think it's safe to say that if China does buy U.S.

2:09:38Joe Vaclavik:soybeans, it's going to be in a reduced manner. You got to keep this in mind. China is avoiding U.S. soybeans as its way of fighting the trade war. China's imposing the tariffs on its own soybean buyers, right? So if China wants to waive the tariffs and say we're going to buy U.S. soybeans, U.S. soybeans are cheap right now, just so we're clear, they're competitive. They can do it. They just don't want to because this is one of the few bullets that they have to fight the trade war with the U.S.

2:10:03Emily Jashinsky:Now, Matt Stoller wrote on Sunday, he says there's another set of announcements in which, quote, Trump sought to mollify his frustrated farmer base. Trump said he wants to use tariff revenue to bail out farmers. Stoller says it's possible but could require Democrats in Congress to go along. Trump is also bragging about new international trade deals, though China is conspicuously absent and he is trying to bring down interest rates, which will help farmers. Also, another announcement was that the Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, and Antitrust Chief Gail Slater announced they would be looking at the rising cost of crop inputs like seeds, chemicals, fertilizers and machinery.

2:10:37Emily Jashinsky:So there's three different things there. Really, what do you make of that kind of slate of potential Trump administration actions to to try to mollify, as Stoller says, farmers?

2:10:48Joe Vaclavik:There is almost certainly going to be some sort of farmer bailout. There was last time around, it was called MFP, the Market Facilitation Program. And because of the trade war that occurred in 2018 and 2019, the previous Trump administration sent farmers tens of billions of dollars as its way of making up for the lost sales via the trade war. In all likelihood, they're going to do the same thing. Something's probably going to be announced here in the coming weeks. And to be clear about what this does and who likes it and who doesn't, a lot of farmers are not a fan of this. To go back to what I mentioned earlier, these payments that go out directly to farmers have directly influenced the inflation factors that I talked about earlier, high fertilizer prices, high seed prices, high machinery prices.

2:11:32Joe Vaclavik:A lot of studies have shown that the vast majority of these direct farm payments don't really end up in the pockets of farmers. The farmers are essentially a mechanism by which these payments flow through back to the fertilizer companies and the seed dealers and the machinery companies and the banks. Which are big corporations, right?

2:11:50Emily Jashinsky:Big corporations.

2:11:51Joe Vaclavik:And these are the corporations that lobby for the farm payments. It's not necessarily the farmers that are lobbying for the farm payments or the farm groups. It's the people who want their money back or want to continue to be paid or continue to make money. That's a huge, huge part of it that I don't think that the public understands is that so much of this money is just it's flow through money. The farmers and mechanism so that the big banks get their money back, The seed dealers, the fertilizer, they want their money back. They want to keep their stock prices high. That's a huge piece of this.

2:12:19Krystal Ball:Yeah, God forbid any of our companies suffer any penalty. So if China does successfully stiff arm us, where else can the U.S. sell soybeans? Like who out there in the world is hungry enough for this amount of soybean harvest?

2:12:36Joe Vaclavik:Nobody. In terms of soybean importers, China is head and shoulders above any other global importer. That being said, we have had other global buyers step up and export sales to this point for this marketing year, which just began a month ago, to non-China destinations are elevated. But they're just – I don't think there's a scenario in which non-China destinations make up the entirety of what China won't buy, put it that way.

2:13:04Krystal Ball:Yeah, I can imagine Trump telling Ghana, you better buy up a bunch of our soybeans. Ghana is like, what am I? Yeah, nobody else has the appetite. I mean, China is just such a huge country. Yes.

2:13:16Emily Jashinsky:Yeah.

2:13:17Krystal Ball:What about India? I mean, they got a lot of people. They want some soybeans.

2:13:22Joe Vaclavik:I don't think so. We may sell some corn or some ethanol to India. They're in the midst of a big ethanol push. I just, I don't know. I don't know exactly what the quantities are going to be. As with all these trade deals, you know, I kind of go back to the phase one trade deal that was signed in 2020. It's like the trade deals are almost like ceremonial in some way, shape or form. And really what happens is the trade deal gets signed. It doesn't mean anything when it's signed. I mean, publicly or optically, yeah, it does. But in terms of our markets are concerned, the market, the soybean market, soybean traders, the guys trading soybeans with big money, they're not going to care till we actually see the export sales.

2:14:01Joe Vaclavik:In the case of the phase one trade deal, it was signed, I believe, on January 15th of 2020. It wasn't until six or seven months later that China came in and began to buy US products aggressively. And they did, but it took a long time. So I think that with these trade deals, like we saw the one with Taiwan announced a week and a half ago. I mean, whatever, it's good press. But until they come in and start doing the business and we see an acceleration in the actual stuff that's being announced by USDA, which is now shut down, by the way. But that's what we need to see.

2:14:32Krystal Ball:All right. So anyway, if you're watching this program and you need a few billion tons of soybeans, America's selling. We are. Joe Vaclavik with the Grain Markets and Other Stuff podcast. Really, really appreciate the insight here.

2:14:45Emily Jashinsky:Thank you.

2:14:45Krystal Ball:Thanks, guys.

2:14:46Emily Jashinsky:Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reportedly in the process of a regime change effort against Nicolas Mazzurro in Venezuela. That's according to a long new report in the New York Times. The military, according to this Times report, as well as also readying operations on narco traffickers inside Venezuela. So that's part of this big New York Times report. I'm going to read a quote from it here. The push by top aides to President Trump to remove Maduro as the leader of Venezuela has intensified in recent days with administration officials discussing a broad campaign that would escalate military pressure to try to force him out.

2:15:19Emily Jashinsky:U.S. officials say it's being led by Marco Rubio, who is also NSA, by the way, and that comes into play a little bit here, too. Rubio argues that Maduro is an illegitimate leader who oversees the export of drugs to the United States, which he says, poses a, quote, imminent threat. But Mr. Rubio is shaping a more aggressive strategy using intel provided by the CIA, the officials said. And the Pentagon has built up a force of more than 6 ,500 troops in the region. Another key part of this article, John Ratcliffe, so that's the head of the CIA, and Stephen Miller, obviously the chief domestic policy advisor close to Donald Trump, both support Mr.

2:15:53Emily Jashinsky:Rubio's approach. The officials added, again, according to the Times, the U.S. military has been planning potential military operations targeting drug trafficking suspects in Venezuela as a next phase, although the White House has not yet approved such a step, current and former military officials say. There's actually another story, I think it was in the Washington Post, right, just a couple of days ago, about how there's disagreement between the Pentagon and the White House regarding whether it's appropriate to start readying a military operation in South America. And I think Mexico as well was part of the disagreements.

2:16:24Emily Jashinsky:Just finally from the Times, those operations would be aimed at interfering with drug production and trafficking in Venezuela, as well as tightening a vice around Mr. Maduro. Trump admin officials not yet confirmed whether there have been such exchanges in the White House did not provide a comment on the matter. So this is a big New York Times piece, basically reporting out, Ryan, what we knew was happening or what we all suspected was happening. There have been leaks to this effect, but this put it pretty clearly, I think, about what's happening inside.

2:16:51Krystal Ball:Yeah, I'm surprised he's not going for Cuba in this because the the situation in Cuba even though it doesn't get anywhere near the attention it should is is catastrophic you know people losing significant some significant amounts of weight the outflow of it's lost like a third of its population over the last like five years or more crime is rising like it's it it feels like the embargo has with the tightening sanctions might actually finally do what it's been trying to do, which is topple the government and we'll get a failed state in its place. So for Rubio, who has wanted nothing more than to topple that government his entire life, it's interesting that he's doing kind of Venezuela first.

2:17:43Emily Jashinsky:Yeah.

2:17:45Krystal Ball:And it at least is pushing some Democrats to start to come out publicly against regime change in Venezuela. Representative Don Beyer, he posted Donald Trump's, quote, special military operation in Venezuela is a terrible idea. He's going from murdering people on boats without charges or due process to what sounds like regime change by military force. A president, a quote, president of peace doesn't start new, unwise and unnecessary wars. This would be something that Democrats could follow Beyer's lead on and really push Trump on because, you know, outside of South Florida, nobody voted for this.

2:18:21Krystal Ball:And half the people in South Florida don't want this. It's like, it's basically just doing, just using the US military to play act this counter-revolution that the South Florida Cuban population has wanted for 50 plus years.

2:18:40Emily Jashinsky:Well, I mean, we have reminders that are still downstream of the Cold War and our foreign policy every day about how easily these types of operations can go wrong, Iran being one of them, an ally of Venezuela's, by the way, and Venezuela clearly of interest to the United States. Venezuela's oil reserves are not unimportant to the United States' interest in Venezuela, of course. And so these are incredibly kinetic situations, risky situations, explosive situations. And so if the U.S. right now is readying, which clearly I think it is, precision targeted strikes on narco traffickers in Venezuela.

2:19:15Emily Jashinsky:And by the way, I read the entire, I think it was SDNY indictment of Maduro the other day. And it's not insane. Like there are actually some pretty credible connections between Maduro and Cartel of the Suns and over the last, I mean, I think it goes over like the last 10, 15 years. So some of it's going back pretty far. It's not insane to say that Maduro, as Rubio does, it's not insane to say that Maduro Maduro may have had something to do with narco trafficking. Again, he's the leader of Venezuela.

2:19:46Krystal Ball:All governments are involved with drug trafficking.

2:19:49Emily Jashinsky:Ryan wrote a book on this. What's it called? This is your brain on drugs.

2:19:53Krystal Ball:This is your country on drugs. This is your country on drugs.

2:19:55Emily Jashinsky:Yes. So anyway, it's not an insane indictment, but as a predicate for military operations, it's completely for military operations that are, let's just say it would be a bit of a stretch to call democratic because nobody's going to vote on this. Of course, there was talk of actually using the AUMF earlier. It was one of the Venezuelan boat strikes where people were throwing out that maybe it was covered by the AUMF. Do you remember that? Like the anti-terrorist AUMF after 9-11. So just the ways that this could go wrong, We have had, what, 50 plus years to learn from. And especially as the right started re-exploring a lot of this during the Biden administration and the first Trump administration about how intelligence agencies are undergoing these regime change and propaganda operations that then are anti-democratic and trickle into, you know, as much as you may disagree with communism and see the dangers of communism and understand, you know, as a conservative, let's say that you share all of those things.

2:21:01Emily Jashinsky:perceptions as I do. This is crazy.

2:21:05Krystal Ball:Yeah. This is crazy. If they were, if I were the lawyer for the Trump administration, the way I would tell them that you could use the AUMF is to say, because AUMF says, basically you can use force against like Al Qaeda and people involved in 9-11. I would say, okay, here's how you make the argument. The CIA helped to create Al Qaeda. the CIA helped to create a lot of these drug trafficking operations. So therefore, there's a connection between the CIA and 9-11 and drug trafficking. And the AMF allows violence against anybody involved in 9-11. And so there you go.

2:21:45Emily Jashinsky:I was going to say that's insane, but that is not insane. What's insane is the actual case that you make. The fact that that's real is actually completely insane. It's all wrapped up. It's legal.

2:21:53Krystal Ball:Yeah, because it's all CIA operation.

2:21:55Emily Jashinsky:Yeah.

2:21:56Krystal Ball:They all are, yeah.

2:21:57Emily Jashinsky:And, well, John Ratcliffe is reportedly on board.

2:21:59Krystal Ball:Yeah. And then real quickly, the war with Iran keeps inching closer. Two interesting developments on that. We can put up this next element. Trump administration reached a deal with Iran where they're sending a plane load of Iranian deportees. This is not the thing that's pushing us closer to war. Just kind of fascinating. that like for the and i don't quite understand it for because i the united states has always said oh we're we will give asylum to these iranian dissidents because iran is terrible and it's the evil mullahs and anybody who stands up to the evil mullahs is a friend of the united states so what's going on here why why are we like actually never mind go back to the evil mullahs

2:22:45Emily Jashinsky:I genuinely don't know. Probably espionage charges.

2:22:51Krystal Ball:I don't think it's way too... Does this seem just like standard migration situation?

2:22:57Emily Jashinsky:I don't know. I mean, maybe that's happened with...

2:23:00Krystal Ball:We wouldn't send them back if there were spies. We wouldn't maybe send all of them back, but yeah. Bizarre. Yeah, it's weird. In another ominous development, Amwaj Media reported yesterday that the French negotiations are ongoing around these snapback sanctions and the nuclear deal. French apparently came to a deal with the Iranians that would involve Iran basically giving everything up when it comes to its nuclear program, again, in exchange for some sanctions relief. U.S. came in and basically vetoed that and told Iran, you know, stop enriching. You have to give us all of the enriched uranium because in the past, like you would store it somewhere or you would give it to Russia or it wasn't like you would give it to the United States.

2:23:51Krystal Ball:You have to give us all of your enriched uranium. You have to stop your enrichment. And in exchange, we will give you a delay of like three months or six months or nine months of these snapback sanctions. so no sanctions relief but just a delay of some further sanctions and the Iranian government was like wow this is like insulting it's so absurd um and so the sense among people watching this is like that this is just a pretext for uh for more strikes coming pretty soon yes and Iran by

2:24:27Emily Jashinsky:the way has a lot of like oil property in Venezuela um and this goes back to what we're talking about earlier in the show with Argentina and soybeans just in the last block about why Bessett might be so interested in bailing out Argentina.

2:24:40Krystal Ball:So yeah, and if we wanted, if the US government wanted prices to be lower for the American people, like there are ways you could do it by not doing needless wars, for instance, with Venezuela and Iran. But that getting prices down for the American people is not remotely a priority, apparently.

2:25:03Emily Jashinsky:Well, that does it for us today. Ryan, big show, big news cycle. Shutdown news isn't going anywhere. Crystal and Sagar will be back here tomorrow, and we'll see everyone on Friday. Indeed. All right. See you guys then.

2:25:31Ryan Grim:I'm Amanda Knox, and in the new podcast Doubt, the case of Lucy Letby, we unpack the story of an unimaginable tragedy that gripped the UK in 2023. But what if we didn't get the whole story?

2:25:43Krystal Ball:The moment you look at the whole picture, the case collapsed.

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2:26:27Ryan Grim:Listen to the Spirit Daughter podcast starting on February 24th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your podcasts.

2:26:36Joe Vaclavik:I'm Clayton Eckerd. In 2022, I was the lead of ABC's The Bachelor.

2:26:41Ryan Grim:But here's the thing. Bachelor fans hated him.

2:26:45Joe Vaclavik:If I could press a button and rewind it, all I would.

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