10/1/26: Bond Yields Hit 24 Year High, Bibi Exploits Plane Hijacking, Paxton Says Trump Hurting Texas GOP

26:40Why is why are Democrats doing so well in Texas, despite the fact that parts of it are absolutely booming? Well, first of all, candidate quality. Great question. We'll talk about this in our midterm block. But I mean, something that we have highlighted here on the show is you could make an argument polling wise that the state of Iowa is more in play than the state of Texas. And I think that what's happening in – I think that diesel is the story where people in Texas, there's a lot of money down there. There's AI CapEx spend boom. I mean there's a lot of rich people that are down in Texas, whereas in Iowa, you have a farming-reliant economy, and you've been doubly screwed by tariffs and your high diesel prices.

27:20You don't produce diesel in Iowa. You are a consumer largely of diesel. And so that kind of highlights like that's why I think there will be some a limited amount of regional disparity. And, you know, it's kind of like the bell curve where, you know, where you fall on that really matters. And I feel like Iowa is on the tail end of a state most to be negatively affected by two concrete policies of choice by the Trump administration. Last thing, a seven, Ryan, I think you wanted to hit this where I mean, this is just kind of like weird behavior from the United States. Apparently, Marco Rubio ordered the Iranian delegation to leave the country after the United Nations.

28:01Do you know anything about this? It's very odd. Yeah, because I can tell you for a fact that they were planning on staying for, I don't know how long, but well into this week because I was in talks with interviewing Arakshi while he was in New York. And there was no plan that he was leaving on Monday. And so according to this reporting, which I understand to be true, after they hit some impasse in negotiations, Rubio was like, just all right, everybody out. Like, just go. And this was after they had already denied visas last minute to a whole bunch of kind of high level, not just support staff, but very high level members of the Iranian delegation.

28:44And I know that they were scrambling because the people that had all the different contact lists and everything, they were blocked from coming. And so the entire delegation was kind of a mess. And then they put on all these bizarre restrictions about what they're allowed to do while they're here. Just a lot of kind of petty humiliation, which the U.S. had kind of, at least in spirit, committed not to do when the U.S. agreed to host the United Nations. to say like this is not your pet that you're allowed to use for your own purposes. It was supposed to be this is for the entire world, and we're going to base it in New York, but you're going to allow people to come there who you're in a Cold War with, you're in a hot war with, and you're going to be cool about it.

29:32And we're not being very cool about it. Yeah, Ryan, I'm trying to do a history. When is the last time that the U.S. was at war with a sovereign nation recognized by the United Nations where basically the counterparty lasted long enough to be able to have a diplomatic presence in the United States. I just asked Claude. Apparently North Vietnam was never in the UN. Maybe Libya? I'd have to go back and check. Maybe Gaddafi had somebody at the UN. Yeah, he probably must have. Right, exactly. They certainly must have had somebody at the UN. Iraq. Right. Iraq. Right. But then that collapsed in three weeks.

30:15So I'm like, you know, this kind of is an unprecedented situation. It's by the way, actually was, as you know, Ryan, a lot of people warned about this whenever they put the United Nations in New York. They were like, why would we put it here? You know, what if we have problems with the United States? So maybe they were right. And especially when you're not a nuclear armed power like the Soviet Union. OK, let's get to terror. Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Jewel Osco. It's time to stock up and save now through October 27th. Get$10 off when you spend$25 or more on participating items. Just look for participating item tags to earn on eligible items from brands like Bubbler, Ghost Energy, Lindor, Halo Top, Vital Farms, Kellogg's, Campbell's, and Heinz.

30:58Clip once and save through October 27th every time you shop. Grab these hot deals before they're gone. Restrictions apply. IC website for full terms and conditions. You've built a successful practice. What if your firm helped you grow it? What if you worked for a firm where leadership listens and decisions are made quickly? That's what makes Stiefel different. We're a firm built for advisors by advisors. That means you come first with the independence to do what's right for your clients and the support and resources to build lasting success. It's also why Stiefel was named number one overall in employee advisor satisfaction among investment firms by J.D.

31:35Power four years in a row. For 135 years, Stiefel has never stood still. From embracing an entrepreneurial spirit to empowering advisors with AI-powered tools to enhance, not replace, judgment, we're dedicated to being the advisor of choice for clients, the investment of choice for shareholders, and the firm of choice for associates. Stiefel, where success meets success. Learn more at choosestiefel.com. Stiefel Nicholas and Company Incorporated, member NYSE and SIPC. For J.D. Power 2026 award information, visit JDPower.com slash awards. Compensation provided for using not obtaining the award. Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin Unfiltered podcast?

32:12Here's what you missed. And the argument is, do you want to win? If you don't win, you have no power. It's real. Those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interests and they complain about the very thing they're receiving. It's raw. I knew that the issue of transgender athletes was not going well with a lot of black men. Roland Martin unfiltered. I went off. I said, this is exactly what I'm talking about. Y 'all gonna scream at Chanel, but you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same vein. Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network.

32:5312 seats. Those are moving south. So if you Democrats, you don't wait to 2030. You better be hitting the ground going hard in the South now. And download Roland Martin Unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Turning now to two of these alleged terror incidents, we want to give everybody an update on that Israeli hijacked situation. Let's put this video up on the screen. multiple video released from many of the passengers who were on this fly Dubai flight, where the details officially that have come out describe two pilots in the cockpit. The co-pilot allegedly tried to put the plane into a dive while stabbing the main pilot.

33:40According to the Israeli officials, the pilot who was stabbed was able to fight off his co-pilot and actually opened the cockpit door, which enabled both two reserve pilots who were on the plane to come in and safely land it, in addition to some of the passengers to actually secure the co-pilot who had been trying to crash the plane. Apparently, they did it with a wired headphone. So a lot of the wired headphone community is speaking up on that one. One of the survivors of that attack met with Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday, immediately after returning to Israel, guys, I could put that video on the screen.

34:21He described it saying, I pulled the yoke up and I stopped the plane's dive. It's lucky I had from aviation experience from the Mayday air crash series, which is, I believe, on YouTube or in some video format. And so, Ryan, I know you and Emily covered a lot of this yesterday. Of course, you also have good sources and others. I don't blame people. There's a lot of skepticism around this. I don't, I mean, I certainly do as well whenever it comes to at least, you know, obviously any precipitating attack which could cause a major international incident. I don't just say that because it's Israel. We're literally about to talk about this with Iran and the UK as well.

35:03I'm curious where your head is at and any reporting or any other details that you think are relevant. What's so interesting is that if you, uh, I, I haven't seen a poll of the American public, the sense that I guess so many people are expressing so much skepticism. Obviously there was a knife fight, uh, or at least there was some kind of fight with sharp objects that led to, uh, you know, an enormous set of injuries to the other pilot. Uh, clearly the plane, you know, plummeted, So, you know, all of these things happen, but people are very much questioning the timing of this, like, how did this come about?

35:46it's we've kind of entered this this period where whatever news event comes about you're going to get a huge number of people who are like minimum waiting to see waiting to hear more information about this before before jumping to before jump to any conclusions on it I don't know what are you hearing well you know I haven't heard anything specific obviously the Mayday crash one was highlighted to me by a lot of people. I read it just because, I mean, it is plausible. Of course, it happened, as you said, the passenger is literally covered in blood and immediately met with Netanyahu. Kind of where I fall on this is that I do think all of the details described did happen just in terms of the way that it's come out.

36:29And I think that Netanyahu is exploiting it for domestic political purposes because he is the head in an, or because he's going into a knife fight election. And this is kind of, you know, the whole reason and pitch that he's making to the Israeli people. So it's a lot like October 7th where, you know, you have a horrific situation, which then, you know, kind of morphs and turns into something for bigger domestic political purposes. For example, Bibi had actually previously even said in his campaign speech, we can put the next one up here on the screen. We have indications that ahead of the elections, our enemies will try to attack us.

37:07So, look, I mean, these people, again, are trying to portray this as a false flag and all of that. And I remain deeply skeptical of many international terror incidents whenever they're immediately described just because you and I have done this for long enough where we know that the details all dramatically change in a matter of 24 to 48 hours. But generally where I land is I do think, you know, mostly what's described has happened. Just there were children on board. You know, they're screaming. Obviously, it's a horrific situation. There's damage to the plane. the landing in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Saudi, who also, I mean, I don't think they have a ton of incentive to comply, all basically confirming many of the details.

37:46But largely, I think, of course, you know, in many ways, like United States politicians, any politicians, a security incident like this can be a rallying cry. And of course, hijacking airplanes is something that kind of harkens back to a long period of Israeli history, both in terms of El Al flights and other incidents that have happened many times over the last 50 or 60 years, in particular, why it's actually hitting home quite hard in Israel. But anyway, we wanted to make sure that we showed everybody all of that. Let's also then get to this UK Fairford situation, where frankly, I think there's a hell of a lot more questions as of right now, with the Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, now saying that they have strong indications that Iran was connected to this plot.

38:33Let's take a listen. Strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened over the weekend at RAF Fairford. But of course, it remains an ongoing, complex and serious police investigation. And of course, we are working closely with our colleagues in the United States of America. So it's ongoing. I have held a COBRA meeting as I've been here at the conference in Liverpool. We are on top of it in every possible way imaginable. The police in Gloucestershire, our counterterrorism police, have done an outstanding job. I thank them for that. We will say more in due course, but we can confirm our belief that we believe Iran to have played a part.

39:17All right. So strong indications. And yet, again, here are the details. You're like, hold on a second. Let's put the next one up here on the screen. Apparently, one of the guys in this so-called plot actually called 999, which is their emergency line, before the arrests were made at the base. Now, here's the problem, Ryan, is that the current narrative from a lot of the press is that that's why these suspects were apprehended. But you and I know that actually what happened is that this farming woman was driving down the road in the middle of the night and that she's the one who called the police.

39:59And so what they're trying to spin it as is that this guy had called the police. He got cold feet and had called them and alerted them and maybe they were watching. But it kind of obfuscates the exact details through which the arrest went down in the first place by this woman driving down the road in midnight who saw these sketchy vans. We also know for a fact that there have been no explosives found, that it's all just been, you know, petrol, as they call it. We don't know if it was diesel or whether it was gasoline, which would validate, you know, a lot of the speculation in the UK that actually it was just a bunch of general thugs trying to steal diesel while the diesel price is so high.

40:41So look, the UK prime minister saying this obviously is a big deal, but a lot of the details still remain very strange. Yeah. And if you listen to Burnham and you read all the news reports in Europe about it, they keep saying, now we have suspicions that Iran and Marco Rubio said that foreign powers have been involved with it, quote, it, or what happened at the, it's like, what, what happened? Like, what, what's the it here? The it, three, five lads in like three vans were outside this base and this lady called the cops on them. They got arrested. They found that they had petrol in their vans and nothing else.

41:24So what's the it that Iran was like, take a bunch of petrol and pour it on the chain link fence outside the base and then light it up? You've looked into this more than I have, I think. What is the it that Iran is allegedly supposed to have been involved with here? Like if there's no explosives, there's nothing that ties them to any break-in effort. Like what's the it? Let's put the next one up there, guys, which really highlights Ryan's questions here. So the mystery over the base, as police find petrol, but no explosive, mired in confusion, a quantity of petrol was found in the vehicles, acting suspiciously in a major incident.

42:09And again, you know, You have this guy who apparently called the police on himself, or at least, again, that's what the Wall Street Journal and some of the other Western media are reporting. But it doesn't comport with the fact that the whole thing was busted because this woman was driving down the road in the middle of the night. By the way, Iran has responded. B8, we can put their statement up here on the screen. They say, this is from their foreign minister, Arachi. Prime Minister Burnham says the UK government can confirm our belief that we believe Iran to have played a part in the Fairford incident.

42:45I can confirm Iran's belief that releasing supposed terror suspects working for foreign states really says it all. You are barking up the wrong tree. So a denial or I guess of denial in part that this was in any way an Iranian sort of alleged attack. I don't know. I mean, you can't really trust either of the figures that were involved here. I will say, you know, there's been a lot of skepticism and I remain firmly in it, but I do want to give, you know, I want to give credit to Trita Parsi, who immediately in the aftermath did say he's like, look, the IRGC did say that many of these foreign bases, which give, you know, basing rights or, you know, or allow the United States to take off from there to bomb Iran are now vulnerable to attack.

43:33In the immediate aftermath, I immediately said I didn't think it would make a lot of sense. I thought it would be absolutely shocking because to attack an air base in the middle of the UK would almost certainly bring the UK more into the war, which is not in Iran's direct interest. and it would also rally around the flag. And I can only guess if the Iran war is double digit or like triple digit, whatever, unpopular in the United States, I can only imagine what it is in the UK, especially with the labor government that barely wants to be involved in this in the first place. And this would only give them the security reason to do so.

44:11So that's just my general thinking, Ryan. Right. And they bailed these five men out. and we don't know yet what the guy told the police. There's some extraordinary gaps in what they're telling the public because that's rather essential. What did he say when he called? And your point is a good one. Iran has very deliberately and conspicuously not attacked Israel because they like the fact that Israel is currently not attacking them. They can just go one-on-one with the U.S. here. launching a terror attack inside the UK with gasoline or diesel or whatever, it's not going to have any effect. It's not actually going to shut the base down.

44:54A couple of guys with vans. All it's going to do, yeah, is heighten the UK's willingness to participate in the war against Iran. So yeah, it doesn't make sense. Who knows? But so far, the quote-unquote major incident that keeps getting described has not actually been described, like what we're talking about here. Totally agree. All right, let's get to midterms. Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Jewel Osco. It's time to stock up and save now through October 27th. Get$10 off when you spend$25 or more on participating items. Just look for participating item tags to earn on eligible items from brands like Bubbler, Ghost Energy, Lindor, Halo Top, Vital Farms, Kellogg's, Campbell's, and Heinz.

45:41Clip once and save through October 27th every time you shop. Grab these hot deals before they're gone. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions. You've built a successful practice. What if your firm helped you grow it? What if you worked for a firm where leadership listens and decisions are made quickly? That's what makes Stiefel different. We're a firm built for advisors by advisors. That means you come first with the independence to do what's right for your clients. and the support and resources to build lasting success. It's also why Stiefel was named number one overall in employee advisor satisfaction among investment firms by J.D.

46:17Power four years in a row. For 135 years, Stiefel has never stood still. From embracing an entrepreneurial spirit to empowering advisors with AI-powered tools to enhance, not replace, judgment. We're dedicated to being the advisor of choice for clients, the investment of choice for shareholders, and the firm of choice for associates. Stiefel, where success meets success. Learn more at choosestiefel.com. Stiefel, Nicholas & Company, Inc., member NYSE and SIPC. For J.D. Power 2026 award information, visit jdpower.com slash awards. Compensation provided for using not obtaining the award. Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin Unfiltered Podcast?

46:55Here's what you missed. And the argument is, do you want to win? If you don't win, you have no power. It's real. Those are the very people who I always say vote against their own economic interests and they complain about the very thing they're receiving. It's raw. I knew that the issue of transgender athletes was not going well with a lot of black men. Roland Martin unfiltered. I went off. I said, this is exactly what I'm talking about. Y 'all gonna scream at Chanel, but you don't want to see a black luxury company in the same vein. Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network.

47:35Twelve seats. Those are moving south. So if you Democrats, you don't wait to 2030. You better be hitting the ground going hard in the south now. And download Roland Martin Unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. turning now to the midterm some uh crazy leaked audio from ken paxton the senate candidate in texas where he says that trump's midterm convention in texas actually dragged his numbers down let's take a listen but do you feel like he's a little bit of a drag so to be honest with you the numbers when we did that convention we chopped our numbers everybody's going to drop.

48:18Right now, yeah, not good. I wish there was something to do at the turn of that. I would obviously have it. It's a little muffled there. To be honest with you, when we did that with the midterm convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody's numbers dropped. Yeah, not good. As Ken says in the most eloquent language that he possibly can, as usual, that we can expect from him. Trump was even asked about this in the Oval Office. Let's take a listen. President, there was a report that Ken Paxton was complaining about your midterm convention and he felt like it hurt him. What's your reaction to that?

48:52Well, I haven't heard that, but I can tell you that the convention was amazing. As you probably know, we had 107 million views. Think of that. We had over 100 million views, I think 107. The NFL had 25 million views. So we had four times what the NFL did. And, you know, it's possible that could be true. I don't know if it's possible, but other people were helped greatly. This was a national convention, midterm convention, never been done before. And we went directly against the NFL. It was just the timing worked out that way. And we had 107 million versus 25 million views, which was a big story in the entertainment world and sports world.

49:37So it would have been a big story if literally any of it was true. It appears that the real number, Ryan, is roughly 3 million. And I actually even called that at the time. I'm like, you guys are really going head to head against the NFL opening weekend. I'm like, I don't know. Not really in the advisory category if you actually want to get anybody to watch it. My guess is they probably went on Twitter and counted all of those Twitter views. And TikTok and all of that together, which I'm sure the NFL could probably do that too. And that would put that around a billion views. Yeah, right. Crazy stuff, man.

50:14You know, generally, I mean, have you I know you've you've looked a little bit into the Texas race with Paxson and with Tallarico. What does Tallarico world generally feel right now going into the last stretch of the election? That everything is coming together in all of the ways that they needed to come together. Like this was always going to be and still is a huge uphill climb. Texas is just so structurally difficult for Democrats to win in. But they needed Paxton to win, first off. They needed Tallarico to win. So they got the matchup that they wanted. And even then, if Trump had stuck with the MOU and we were looking at mortgage rates at 6 % and gas prices at$3 and diesel a little bit more affordable and the oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz without the necessity of SEAL Team 6 dragging every tanker through, then he probably gets close, but not all the way there.

51:26But with with this complete collapse, it's adding to all of the rest of the anger at him. We can put up this next element here, the New York Times one, C4. New York Times sent people down to the border and got some of these classic interviews that people just love of talking to a woman who cast her first ballot ever in 2024 for Donald Trump. But two years later, after her brother was deported, she feels angry and betrayed. He also then talks to a guy who runs a construction company who can't find workers, a pastor who led his congregation to the polls for Republicans, who is now just trying to get them to even continue participating in politics because they're so livid about the things that Trump did.

52:25A lot of these voters along the West Texas border thought that the border was out of control. They agreed with Trump on that. They're not necessarily hostile to the whole build the wall argument that he was making. They did not think that that also meant that he was going to send ice throughout all of the communities and kind of sow the amount of terror. And when it comes to the construction companies, I don't know how they thought this was going to go for them. But however they thought it was going to go, it went differently. And Trump shocked the world by winning a majority of Hispanic voters along the border.

53:09It reshaped his entire coalition. It changed the game when it came to the demographic destiny of the Democrats and and what Republicans believed was was possible. You know, opened up this possibility of a permanent majority coalition around kind of law and order. And in a year and a half, he squandered the entire thing. And if he loses Hispanic voters along the border by 30 points, then Tallarico is is in play. You know, you're the local correspondent down there. What's your sense? Well, you know, I haven't been – I actually haven't been down to South Texas in quite some time. But it is a fascinating place.

53:52I will say in this particular case, you know, to the extent – let's say I'm angry with Trump or a lot of people around Trump. It's for doing things that, you know, they said that they weren't going to do. I do find it really difficult to square voting for Donald Trump when your brother is an illegal alien present in the nation and then to be upset whenever said person gets deported. I will – look, I'll give her her due. She says, quote, I knew he was going to start deporting people. He was going to go after bad criminals, true hardcore criminals, rapists, and killers. She thought of her six children, but when her brother was taken into immigration detention after a scheduled check-in, she felt like it was a punch in the gut.

54:31I didn't think it would target people who were here. I mean, I'm sorry. Like, that's just and she even says, I saw the sign mass deportation and I didn't believe that it would apply. I mean, in this particular case, man, like you got to learn how to read. I mean, I don't think that it was all that difficult to understand what the sign said or exactly what was explicitly laid out in the speeches and others. You can dunk on me, you know, all you want. And I think that's fair in some cases. But like in this in this particular case, like, you know, same with the construction people who are like, oh, well, it's going to be harder for me to hire illegal aliens to work for my construction company.

55:12I'm like, that was one of the explicit goals of the deportation and administration strategy in order to force you to raise prices and actually or raise wages and actually hire people who are here present in the country legally. So all of that said, I guess it just confirms my theory that the median voter like basically hears whatever they want to hear, you know, in terms of how it will affect them. Because she does say, like you said, that they were worried about this string of people who are coming across the border and they were upset about that. But what they also say really is beyond that, it's the economic situation.

55:49Quote, the economic struggle seemed to have only gotten worse, shaped by the same forces at play in the rest of the economy. Construction has slowed. Small business owners, so they lost customers. And restaurants and construction sites, church lobbies, optimism about the second Trump administration has curdled into a deep sense of abandonment. Not all of it, again, related to ICE. A lot of it still related to diesel and to gas, which while I said previously in our show that gas prices were, you know, were not as high in Texas, I think they're barely around$4 a gallon compared to the rest of the nation around$4.40 or$4.50.

56:22$4 a gallon is still very, very high. And so look, I mean, I think you just have a community of people who have swung so wildly in the last 10 years that they are always up for grabs. And that's why any idea of a permanent majority is foolish. One of my books, which is over there right now, not behind me, but I should put it up, is the Carville book, and I look at it all the time, of 40 more years after 2008. And it should really be enshrined in a museum because it was about the permanent Democratic majority and how Democrats would rule the nation for the next 40 years. And literally eight years later, Donald Trump wins the presidency, and then 16 years later, he wins the national popular vote.

57:05So what are the most debunked and discredited theories in modern politics? And I feel like a lot of the Hispanic celebration among a lot of Republicans after 2024 was the same. I will note, I literally talked about this. I said, look, one of the problems with elections is thermostatic public opinion where people shift wildly all over the place depending on who is in power. And so unless you actually deliver something for them, then you're really not going to have any sort of permanent electoral coalition, which is what everybody keeps trying to do. I got an even more fun one for you. In 2004, if you remember, Karl Rove said there was going to be a 50 year permanent Republican majority.

57:5022 years later, Karl Rove himself is voting for Democrats. You're so right. It's like, good point. Karl Rove just took to the stage of the Texas Tribune fest and he's going to be voting Democrat for the rest of or for the first time in his entire life. He's halfway through his permanent Republican majority and lost himself. You know, Libs, you can have Karl Rove. I've been around. I'm just old enough to remember when he was the Stephen Miller and one of the most vilified aides literally in the entire nation. And I preferred it that way, personally. All right. I think we have Ro Khanna standing by.

58:31Let's get to it.

58:48Hey, it's Ryan Seacrest for Jewel Osco. It's time to stock up and save now through October 27th. Get$10 off when you spend$25 or more on participating items. Just look for participating item tags to earn on eligible items from brands like Chobani, Banquet, Pete's Coffee, Triscuit, and Ice Mountain. Clip once and save through October 27th every time you shop. Grab these hot deals before they're gone. Save on brands you trust. Restrictions apply. See website for full terms and conditions.

59:40Tyler Perry's sisters returns October 7th at 9, 8 central only on BET. Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast. Here's what you missed. People wake up and go, oh damn, wait a minute, hold up. They changed all of that. Yes. It's real. This is a wholesale attack. It is targeting black people in every federal agency. It's raw. White folks have never allowed that reckoning to last more than a decade. Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network. And download Roland Martin Unfiltered on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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