In short
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar - Episode Summary: 3/10/26
Episode Overview In this episode of Breaking Points, hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti discuss key developments related to the escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel's reactions, and former President Trump's controversial press conference. The episode delves into the geopolitical implications of the ongoing war, the strategies of various nations involved, and the potential for a ceasefire. The conversation features insights from military analyst Brandon Weichert.
---
Key Topics Discussed
- Trump's Threats Against Iran
- Trump held a press conference suggesting that Iran would face severe consequences if they interfered with oil supply routes.
- His rhetoric included phrases like "fire and fury," reminiscent of past threats made toward North Korea.
- The press conference's timing coincided with rising oil prices, suggesting a need to stabilize the markets.
- Israel's Position
- Israeli officials are reportedly growing concerned about the conflict's escalation and the potential for a prolonged war.
- Leaks indicate a desire for a ceasefire, as the ongoing attacks have put significant pressure on Israel's military resources.
- The impact on regional allies, particularly in the Gulf, is becoming a concern for Israeli officials.
- Iran's Stance
- Iran has rejected any ceasefire proposals and is committed to continuing the conflict until they feel secure against future U.S. aggression.
- An Iranian official emphasized their military strength and capability to sustain a long war despite U.S. claims of having degraded their military capabilities.
- Iran aims to use the war to inflict economic pain on the U.S. and its allies, aiming for a global response against American military actions.
- Military Readiness and Strategy
- Brandon Weichert joins the discussion to analyze the current military strategies being employed by both the U.S. and Iran.
- The potential for U.S. troop involvement on the ground in Iran is raised as a possibility to secure Iranian nuclear material, but such actions carry significant risks.
- The discussion underscores the complexity of military operations and the long-term implications of U.S. involvement in the region.
- Economic Implications
- The discussion highlights the economic fallout of the conflict, particularly concerning oil prices and the potential for a global economic crisis.
- Countries in the Gulf are recalibrating their alliances based on the perceived lack of U.S. support and the direct threats they face from Iran.
- The episode suggests that the U.S. is not prepared for the long-term financial and military commitments required for such a conflict.
---
Key Takeaways
- Escalation of Conflict: The episode emphasizes the increasing complexity of the conflict, with multiple parties involved and the potential for regional destabilization.
- Differing Objectives: Each country involved has its own objectives, with Iran's survival instincts clashing against the U.S. and Israel's ambitions for regime change.
- Public Perception: The hosts discuss how public sentiment in the U.S. may shift as economic pressures arise due to the war, challenging the government's military strategy.
- Long-term Consequences: The discussion reflects on the historical patterns of military intervention and the potential for miscalculations leading to prolonged conflicts.
---
Conclusion This episode of Breaking Points provides a detailed examination of the ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, highlighting the complexities of international relations and the potential for economic and military repercussions. The hosts encourage listeners to consider the broader implications of U.S. foreign policy and the importance of understanding the motivations of all parties involved.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOIntroduction to Current Events
3:25 to 3:40
Hosts discuss the importance of independent media and the upcoming topics.
“Iran, though, is signaling they want to keep going at least until the midterm.”
Trump's Head-Scratching Press Conference
3:40 to 4:25
Analysis of Trump's recent press conference and its implications.
“Trump is urging oil tanker pilots to risk their lives to traverse the Strait of Hormuz as oil concerns continue to escalate and sort of dominate this conflict.”
Iran's Stance and Ongoing Conflict
4:25 to 5:00
Discussion on Iran's position regarding the conflict and ceasefire.
“These are obviously shocking revelations, so we will break that down for you as well.”
Trump's Threats and Market Reactions
5:00 to 6:15
Exploration of Trump's threats towards Iran and the market's response.
“We're really, really pleased to have so many people join and trust us at such a critical time like this.”
Rising Tensions in the Middle East
6:15 to 7:30
Insights into the escalating tensions and implications for oil prices.
“So, you know, you could look at that statement.”
Political Backlash and Advisers' Concerns
7:30 to 8:10
Discussion about the political implications of the ongoing war and advisors' views.
“This is a gift from the United States of America to China and all those nations that heavily use the Hormuz Strait.”
Asking the Tough Questions
8:10 to 9:30
Hosts critique the press conference and the reporters’ questions to Trump.
“But regardless, it's still up some 30, 40 percent from when the war began just some last week.”
Iran's Response and Future Outlook
9:30 to 14:00
Analysis of Iran's responses and what lies ahead in the conflict.
“I think what the advisors are pointing to is that they can see gas prices, look, maybe not 120, even 90.”
The Press Conference Revelation
14:00 to 18:19
Analysis of a recent press conference about U.S. involvement in Iran and military objectives.
“And you can already see how that is working.”
Trump's Controversial Statements
18:20 to 23:26
Discussion on Trump's comments regarding sanctions and military actions in relation to Iran and Russia.
“I'm curious what you think of this saga.”
Show all 26 chapters
Moral Atrocities and Accountability
24:03 to 28:00
Examination of the implications of U.S. military actions in Iran and the responsibilities involved.
“And Trump goes, well, a lot of people have Tomahawk missiles, including Iran.”
Military Accountability and Culture
28:00 to 29:55
Explore the importance of military accountability and historical context of military actions.
“I also think that it's a massive disservice to the military.”
Collateral Damage and Public Perception
29:55 to 31:31
Discuss the implications of collateral damage in modern warfare and public awareness.
“You know, one of those guys who they're claiming, one of those guys who were claiming had a health, died of a health.”
Iran's Strategic Calculus
31:31 to 33:56
Analyze Iran's military strategy and objectives amidst ongoing conflicts.
“He has sources, though, so we're trying to show you all sides of the conflict.”
Trump's War Strategy and Market Reactions
33:56 to 36:38
Examine Trump’s strategies regarding the Iran conflict and its impact on markets.
“Like, that's their one chance at being able to survive.”
Israel's Military Concerns and Strategy
39:59 to 42:00
Discuss Israel's strategic concerns and potential military strategies in the ongoing conflict.
“Well, the Israelis are apparently leaking to David Ignatius, who's known to be very like tied in with the deep state over at the Washington Post, that they are also concerned.”
Israeli Strategy and Ceasefire Dynamics
42:00 to 45:20
Explore the complexities of Israeli military strategy and the implications of potential ceasefires with Iran.
“You know, let's come to some sort of a ceasefire.”
Lindsey Graham's Influence and Support for Israel
45:20 to 48:40
Delve into Lindsey Graham's fervent support for Israel and its implications on U.S. foreign policy.
“that's the moment when you choose to actually start the war.”
Gulf States' Response to U.S. Actions
48:40 to 52:00
Discuss the reactions of Gulf states to U.S. military involvement and concerns about their own security.
“He's in here with a blood relationship where they've got some like Angelina Jolie, Billy Bob Thornton wearing each other's blood around their necks.”
Impact of Regional Conflict on Gulf Economies
52:00 to 56:01
Analyze the economic and social repercussions of the ongoing conflict on Gulf states and their relationships.
“decision is, how dangerous it is, how they've weakened their country, how they have to question their alliances, how they're not going to join the rest of the Gulf states and being dragged in.”
Impact of Regional Conflict on Gulf States
56:01 to 56:54
Explore the deteriorating situation in Gulf states and their reactions to U.S. defense partnerships.
“Sorry, we don't have any available to sell you.”
Munitions and Defense Readiness Concerns
56:55 to 58:04
Discuss the implications of rapid munitions expenditure on U.S. military readiness.
“exactly what they're doing with their U.S.”
Iran's Military Perspective on Conflict
1:00:42 to 1:02:53
Delve into Iranian officials' views on U.S. and Israeli actions during the war.
“All right, so we've covered the Americans, covered the Israelis.”
Lessons from Historical Conflicts
1:02:54 to 1:07:29
Analyze lessons from past wars and how they relate to current U.S.-Iran tensions.
“They understand they cannot allow Israel and the U.S.”
Misunderstanding the Iranian Adversary
1:07:30 to 1:10:04
Discuss the misconceptions about Iranian leadership and its implications for U.S. strategy.
“And it is very clear after only 10 days that this has not gone the way that we thought it would.”
Analysis of Iran's National Sentiment and Response
1:10:04 to 1:14:20
Discusses the impact of U.S. and Israeli actions on Iranian nationalism and government stability.
“And, you know, one of, I think, the probably tactical mistakes from the Americans and the Israelis was assassinating the Ayatollah.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Brandon Weichert:This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. All right, so let me confess something. I grabbed a Sky Pop protein soda thinking, sure, we'll see. And I was fully prepared for a protein drink disappointment, but it tastes like actual soda, like crisp, cold, refreshing soda. The kind you crave on a hot day, except it has 10 grams of complete protein, zero sugar and only 45 calories. And it's not thick or chalky and not that guess this is good for me kind of vibe. It's just soda with benefits. Protein doesn't have to be boring or feel like something you just check off your daily list. Sky Pop Protein Soda.
0:32Brandon Weichert:Big taste. Real benefits. Get yours now at Target or Walmart. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500.
1:06Brandon Weichert:Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities. Completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash podcast. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC-registered advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
1:33Brandon Weichert:Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Are you trying to get weight loss support through telehealth, but it feels overwhelming and rushed? Check out orderlymeds.com now. Orderlymeds.com was built to be different. Here, you connect with real doctors who take the time to understand your goals, review your eligibility, and guide you through a plan that's right for you. Orderly Meds provides access to proven GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and terzepatide, including both name brand options and personalized compound versions when appropriate. So you have choices backed by clinical oversight, not guesswork.
2:08Brandon Weichert:It's a simpler, more supportive telehealth experience designed around people who want clarity, care, and confidence in their weight loss journey. And your medication is delivered directly to your home in discreet packaging. So your experience stays private from start to finish. Do your research. Ask the right questions. Then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer. Again, that's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice eligibility required. See site for details.
2:37Krystal Ball:Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here.
2:39Saagar Enjeti:Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election. And we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.
2:46Krystal Ball:This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.
2:52Saagar Enjeti:So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
3:03Krystal Ball:We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com.
3:11Krystal Ball:Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. I have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have first of all? We do.
3:15Saagar Enjeti:Trump gave a very head-scratching press conference yesterday. We'll break that down for you. Also, Israel is leaking that maybe they've had enough. Maybe they'd like a ceasefire, at least for now. Iran, though, is signaling they want to keep going at least until the midterm. So we'll talk about everybody's strategy and where everybody is in this war at this point. Brandon Weikert is also going to join us to break down the interceptor math and the damage that has been done to U.S. radars and the significance of that as the war grinds on. Trump is urging oil tanker pilots to risk their lives to traverse the Strait of Hormuz as oil concerns continue to escalate and sort of dominate this conflict.
3:53Saagar Enjeti:We also have one non-Iran bloc here, although I would argue they continue to be linked. Some new Epstein revelations, including new details about a potential cover-up. Apparently guards were discussing a cover-up. There were some interesting Google searches, some interesting money transfers to one of these prison guards, and also those secret interviews of a Trump accuser that were hidden, have now been made public. And one journalist was able to verify some of the details, corroborate some of the personal details that were offered in one of those interviews. These are obviously shocking revelations, so we will break that down for you as well.
4:29Krystal Ball:Yeah, that's right. Thank you to everybody who has been subscribing to the show, breakingpoints.com. This is the last week. I think it's over on Friday for our free trial, so we can put that promo graphic on the screen. You can use the code BPFREE26 to sign up for a free month trial. We would love to have you. Cost you nothing, you can cancel at any time. Of course, you get access to all of our premium benefits and support all of our work here. If you cannot afford it, or I guess, you know, if you don't want to, no worries. Just hit subscribe to our YouTube channel, please. And if you're listening to this as a podcast, please share an episode with a friend.
4:59Krystal Ball:Biggest week already in the history of breaking points. We're really, really pleased to have so many people join and trust us at such a critical time like this. As Crystal said, let's go ahead and start here with the Trump press conference. So Trump made a major announcement just to set the stage for everybody yesterday. Oil prices had gone sky high. They had come down a bit. The markets were down right around 3 p.m., right before the markets closed. Trump calls, or was called by a CBS News reporter, and he said that the war will be over very soon. Immediately, the S &P 500 shot up. Oil prices rocketed down.
5:34Krystal Ball:Everybody was so excited. The taco is coming. And then he took to the stage. And yeah, that's not really what we got at all. Let's take a listen.
5:43Brandon Weichert:They were separate. And but everybody said the same thing. Make sure you win. We will. We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough. Yeah, please. Thank you. Mr. President, you've said the war is, quote, very complete, but your defense secretary He says, this is just the beginning. So which is it? And how long should Americans be prepared for this war to last for? The beginning. It's the beginning of building a new country. But they certainly — they have no Navy. They have no Air Force. They have no anti-aircraft equipment. It's all been blown up. They have no radar. They have no telecommunications.
6:21Brandon Weichert:And they have no leadership. It's all gone. So, you know, you could look at that statement. We could we could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here. I could call it or we could go further and we're going to go further. But but, you know, they've said this about a lot of things. No other president could do some of this shit I'm doing.
6:44Krystal Ball:Yeah, certainly true. Definitely not a compliment. Let's go ahead and put A to B, please, Eric, up on the screen just to show people again how, you know, any idea of some sort of taco. Trump always chickens out, as originally coined by Senator Chuck Schumer, now become a Wall Street Journal and or traitor term, has completely been dispelled. So late last night, Trump issues this missive. If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America 20 times harder than they have been hit thus far. Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back.
7:23Krystal Ball:as a nation again. Death, fire, and fury will reign upon them. But I hope and pray it does not happen. This is a gift from the United States of America to China and all those nations that heavily use the Hormuz Strait. Hopefully it is a gesture. We greatly appreciate it. Thank you for your attention to this matter. So Fire and Fury Watchers, it's back. Fire and Fury, of course, originally coined in 2017 in that exchange between Trump and what did he call Kim Jong-un? Rocket Man? Little Rocket Man. Oh, wow. Nine years since all that happened. Feels like yesterday. But just to give people context, this is all indicative of a panicking administration over these rising energy prices.
8:01Krystal Ball:So while oil, as of this morning, it's trading around$90 a barrel. It was all the way up to like$120 yesterday. Extremely volatile. Everybody, of course, hanging on every word of the president. But regardless, it's still up some 30, 40 percent from when the war began just some last week. They are trying to find some sort of off-ramp. Let's go ahead and put A1B up here on the screen. This is a Wall Street Journal story breaking late last night. What it says, as you guys can see in front of you, is that some of Trump's advisors in recent days have encouraged him to articulate a plan to extract the U.S.
8:36Krystal Ball:from the war with Iran, make the case that the military had largely achieved its objectives. While many in the president's conservative base still support the operation, Some of his advisors have privately expressed concerns that a longer war could deplete that support. So they're talking about political backlash, which, again, I actually think at this point is the least of their problems. Because just this morning, we hear from the United Arab Emirates that one of the largest refineries in the entire country, in the entire Middle East, is now on fire. And they're like, hey, everybody, please stop circulating rumor.
9:06Krystal Ball:But, yes, we are trying to contain a fire. I love the vague nature, which they released it, like when Saudi Arabia said, incoming missiles into Dahrn, please don't panic. And I was like, Dahrn is where Saudi Aram Cohen is, so maybe we should panic. Same here with the UAE. We know multiple targets were struck overnight all across both Iran, which we're going to show you in a little bit. And this morning, we're already waking up to the news that more significant oil infrastructure has been hit. So the war continues to widen. I think what the advisors are pointing to is that they can see gas prices, look, maybe not 120, even 90.
9:39Krystal Ball:I mean, it's high. It's very high. And the only reason I think that it's currently trading around 90 right now is that, and we'll get to this in a little bit, is that the G7 nations have decided that basically that they will, they're open to releasing probably 30 % of what's already been lost of the entire Strategic Petroleum Reserve from all across the world out into the open market to try and allay those fears. Same, the S &P 500, as far as I know how so far -
10:07Saagar Enjeti:It's down a little bit. Future's down a little bit this morning.
10:09Krystal Ball:It's down a little bit, but not all the way back to where it was. But the point is, is that they saw this indication as Trump is open to some sort of offering. But traders have no idea. So you could see extreme volatility happen. I mean, if you ask me, fire and fury, that's a sell signal. That's just me.
10:25Saagar Enjeti:Well, what it's I mean, Trump's actions yesterday were obviously just a good old fashioned market manipulation. He saw things going south in terms of the stock market. He saw things going north in terms of the oil prices. It's like I got to do something about this because I got to buy myself some time here as much time as I can. So he calls up this reporter, says, oh, we're pretty much done. Schedules a press conference for after the markets close to be like, well, you can say that we're done, but also we're just beginning. It's kind of both at the same time somehow. My read of the situation is he actually would like to taco and listen to the aides and find some sort of way out of this.
11:02Saagar Enjeti:But he's trapped because if he if he now like declares mission accomplished and tries to walk away, the Iranians have been very consistent in saying we're not done. Oh, no, you don't get to say when this is over because we know we learned our lesson from the 12 day war. we're not doing a ceasefire with you now until you have felt the pain. And we're going to talk more about some of the specifics of what the Iranians are saying, you know, when we get to that portion. But so he knows if he tries to walk away, there is a very, very strong likelihood, and his, you know, intelligence reports are probably telling him this too, that the Iranians continue to strike.
11:40Saagar Enjeti:And so then you just look incredibly weak. So, you know, I think his aides It's incredible that they're already leaking to the press, like, this is not going well. We want to find a way out of this thing. I think that also is probably a signal to the markets that they're trying to put out there of like, oh, we're trying to get out of this, guys. But this is what we have been talking about. This is the prediction we've been making from the beginning of this, that once you get into this escalatory cycle, it's not so easy as just putting up the mission accomplished banner and saying, we're going to walk away.
12:10Saagar Enjeti:So that's my read of what is going on here. And, you know, I think also, obviously, they're putting out all kinds of bluster. You hear Trump there. Oh, my God. They have no more Navy. They have no more Air Force. They have no more leaders, et cetera, et cetera. They're basically defeated. You know, we've effectively declared victory here, even though we're going to keep going. But this leak from his age shows that behind the scenes, the picture is far less rosy. And there are great concerns, both in terms of the economic fallout, the military damage, and the political fallout.
12:40Krystal Ball:Let me give you headlines from just the last 35 minutes. Al Jazeera correspondent, explosion following sirens in northern Tel Aviv. Al Akbar correspondent, Lebanese army soldier killed in the conflict with Israel. Abu Dhabi authorities, fire broke out in the ROE's industrial complex. And then another Lebanese army soldier was killed and explosions in Doha, Qatar, as well as the UAE. So there you go. I mean, this is all just in the last 30, 45 minutes. You ready for this one? on the show.
13:08Saagar Enjeti:A top Iranian security official tells Trump, be careful not to get eliminated yourself. So this is the kind of rhetoric that, you know, is coming from the Iranians. Does that sound like people who want to back down? Their leader now is the dude whose mom, dad, wife, and son, you just murdered. So you think there are relatives in there too.
13:26Krystal Ball:Yeah.
13:26Saagar Enjeti:There's other children, relatives, whatever they, yeah, all mass murdered. You think he's in a conciliatory mood? You think he's ready to shake hands and say, okay, well, let's, uh, you know, let's go back to the negotiating table. I don't think so. And by the way, you know, with this sort of rhetoric, which is extreme, can you really complain when you just assassinated their head of state and are openly threatening the new one? I mean, Trump got asked about it. I don't think we pulled the clip. But Trump got asked, hey, you know, are you thinking of killing the new Supreme Leader? He's like, yeah, maybe if he doesn't comply.
13:57Saagar Enjeti:Yeah, we may do that.
13:58Krystal Ball:Yeah. He kept that open. And you can already see how that is working. Now, again, we just want to stick to show you the American press part of the reason we're so happy by the people who watch this show. So I'm watching this press conference yesterday. My wife's mad at me because I'm not being able to help out with the baby. It's late at night, aka like 6 p.m. And I'm like, okay, you know, let's get some good questions in here. And this is the shit that I hear. You see here's some reporter out there who goes, wait, but if you do, Taco, then aren't you letting down the Iranian people? Let's take a listen.
14:28Saagar Enjeti:You promised the Iranian people you would help them, but it sounds like you're willing to end this fight after your military objectives have wrapped up. Isn't that a betrayal? Will I help them?
14:37Brandon Weichert:I'd like to if they can behave. But they've been very menacing. You know, they're great people. They have an amazing population. It's amazing, smart, brilliant, energetic. They have a great point. I'd love to help them, but they have to be in a system that allows them to be helped.
14:56Krystal Ball:Yeah. So the only adversarial, the journalism that we occasionally get is a reporter being like, but if you end it, wouldn't that stop helping the Iranian people? You want to see how we're helping out the Iranian people? Let's go to A3. Let's show some of this stuff from last night. By the way, the president in the middle of his speech is talking about how, oh, if Iran doesn't capitulate, we're going to go after their energy grid. Meanwhile, in a video that you all just saw, that was a strike in the middle of Tehran where you see that massive flash, which analysts are indicating is a power transformer, which caused a massive blackout across the entire city.
15:30Krystal Ball:I mean, look at this. It's out of a movie. It's like it's literally out of a movie in 4K video where all of us just get to see what is happening with some of these explosions. So that's apparently how we're helping the Iranian people, the great people of Iran who are just going to rally around the American flag and greet us and the Israelis as liberators. Meanwhile, by the way, as all indications go forward, A5, put this up here on the screen. More confirmation of everything that we warned you about yesterday. capturing Iran's highly enriched uranium would require a large U.S. ground force, sources say.
Read the full transcript
16:02Krystal Ball:So the president continues to weigh that special operation, which would go in and capture all of this nuclear material. And it would make sense, right, Crystal, because that's an easy mission accomplished. Well, what did we tell you all yesterday? You can't just send in a small team of Delta Force. They know you're coming. That's why the 82nd Airborne has currently been put on notice and is awaiting orders, and they can deploy anywhere in the world in like 72 hours. This is the exact reason, is that to be able to do so, it would require, yes, the Delta guys to go in it, but somebody's got to protect them.
16:31Krystal Ball:So you're going to need all these air assets. You need a large ground force around the area. The Iranians know that you're coming. They're going to turn it into a complete death trap if they have any IQ left in their leadership and in their military. So that's why it would require more. And then who knows how many people are going to get killed in that type of mission. And it would be some sort of, I think, that would be their way of saying mission accomplished, is that they would knock it over. But it would have to end on the same note, if this is the way that it's going to go down, the way that Afghanistan did.
16:59Krystal Ball:And look, you and I were supportive of the decision to get out of Afghanistan, but you can't deny it was an abject disaster, right? And yet 13 Marines were blown up by some ISIS bomber who were right there at the end. And it sunk a decent part of Trump's presidency. It looked like, or sorry, Biden's presidency. It looked like a quagmire and a disaster. And that's pretty much how this is looking right now for the plan to have all of these forces on the ground.
17:23Saagar Enjeti:Well, and not only would it require all of these forces, I mean, to say it would be risky is really to undersell it. One of the analysts that they interviewed here said the logistics and risk involved would be prohibitive, meaning that this isn't just risky. This is practically a death wish. You're talking about an operation that would require air cover, require security, require these guys on the ground. And then you have to find where this material even is. They have some idea. The thought is that it's still buried, you know, at Isfahan and that you'd have to be able to access it through these tunnels.
17:55Saagar Enjeti:I mean, that's and that's why I think they haven't gone forward with this yet, because it's just such an insanely risky, difficult mission. You're begging for scores of U.S. service members to either be captured or killed. So, you know, the quote unquote easy mission accomplished moment is not going to be easy whatsoever. whatsoever and could only further deepen and entrench this conflict, not to mention kill a bunch of Americans. So that is the landscape that they're ultimately looking at here. There's another development. I'm curious what you think of this saga. This is a little hard to parse.
18:28Saagar Enjeti:This comes from Barack Ravid. We can put this up on the screen. Trump apparently spoke with Putin. This is A6 claiming that they discussed an end to the Iran war in a phone call. The Kremlin says that the Russian president presented a proposal. You know, it was the Russians who originally, you know, leaked the fact that this phone call happened. And then clearly the White House gave some details to Barack Ravid. But this comes amidst reports that Russia has been helping Iran quite a bit with intelligence, which is crucial. I mean, we've been doing the same thing with Ukraine in terms of, yeah, for years.
19:03Saagar Enjeti:And, you know, certainly in the context of the, of, you know, after Russia invaded Ukraine. And that has been incredibly important for the Ukrainians and their ability to sustain, you know, the lines, the battle lines that they've been able to sustain, their ability to target, including targeting within Russia. That has all been enabled by us. And Russia reportedly is doing the same for Iran, which is why, you know, there have been a bunch of reports, including from our friends at DropSite, that the U.S. was shocked by some of the targeting, including the ability to know where service members were, which hotel rooms are service members we're staying in and other personnel we're staying in.
19:42Saagar Enjeti:So, you know, that's the backstory here. So to have this conversation happening right now is, you know, it's an interesting development.
19:49Krystal Ball:Well, there was another piece of the press conference where Trump did not get specific, but he said, we'll be removing sanctions from some countries for oil. It's obviously, you know, it's right after a call with Putin. Now, listen, I'm not for the oil sanctions, so I don't care. But if you're one of those neocons who's been beating their chest for Ukraine, you want to cut off Russian oil, how much of an idiot do you look like right now?
20:09Saagar Enjeti:Well, India already got their waiver to buy from Russia. India got their waiver from Russian oil. I mean, which is insane that they need such a thing, but whatever. I couldn't agree more, as you said, but whatever.
20:19Krystal Ball:All right, so let's put that to the side. So now Trump and Putin are in a long phone call. And Putin, I mean, what? You think he's not going to sweep? He's like, hey, you want to bring the price of oil down? I'll help you. Just take some of these sanctions off. No worries. It's all good. We can even move towards a peace settlement in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kremlin war coffers are going up like this. If you follow, there's one of his advisors, Putin's advisors. He's on Twitter. You guys should really go and follow them. His name is Kirill something. I forget. He's out. He's very open about it. He's like, thank you, United States, $100 per barrel.
20:48Krystal Ball:This is the best thing that's ever happened to us over at the Kremlin. We can use this to our advantage. You've just taken out a significant chunk of the global supply. He's like, oh, we're going to use all this money to kill the Ukrainian Nazis. That's how they talk, right? So they're open. You just massively empowered the Russians.
21:04Brandon Weichert:You know that moment around 2 p.m. when you realize you haven't eaten protein, but you also don't want a heavy shake? I have a solution. Sky Pop Protein Soda. It tastes like soda. It's light, bubbly, refreshing, but with 10 grams of complete protein, zero sugar, and only 45 calories. So I don't have to think about it. I'm just packing lunches, answering emails, doing everything, and I just grab one to go. It really does feel lighter than those big functional drinks, and you're still getting real benefits and not something you forced yourself to drink. Sky Pop Protein Soda, reach for the sky. Get yours now at Target.
21:36Brandon Weichert:Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks.
22:08Brandon Weichert:Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com. Public.com slash podcast. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC registered advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.
22:35Brandon Weichert:Are you trying to get weight loss support through telehealth, but it feels overwhelming and rushed? Check out orderlymeds.com now. Orderlymeds.com was built to be different. Here, you connect with real doctors who take the time to understand your goals, review your eligibility, and guide you through a plan that's right for you. Orderlymeds provides access to proven GLP-1 medications like somaglutide and terzepatide, including both name brand options and personalized compound versions when appropriate. So you have choices backed by clinical oversight, not guesswork. It's a simpler, more supportive telehealth experience designed around people who want clarity, care, and confidence in their weight loss journey.
23:15Brandon Weichert:And your medication is delivered directly to your home in discreet packaging. So your experience stays private from start to finish. Do your research. Ask the right questions. Then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer. Again, that's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details.
24:02Krystal Ball:hitting a girl's school. And Trump goes, well, a lot of people have Tomahawk missiles, including Iran. I'm not joking. That's what he said. Let's take a listen.
24:09Brandon Weichert:There's footage that shows that an American missile strike and a Tomahawk missile likely destroyed that Iranian girl's school. So will the Americans, will the U.S. accept any responsibility for that strike? Well, I haven't seen it. And I will say that the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you know, is sold and used by other countries. You know that. and whether it's Iran, who also has some tomahawks, I wish they had more, but whether it's Iran or somebody else, the fact that a tomahawk, a tomahawk is very generic, it's sold to other countries, but that's being investigated right now.
24:48Krystal Ball:Super generic missile that only the United States, Britain, and Australia have.
24:53Saagar Enjeti:Even Israel does not have these things.
24:55Krystal Ball:Right. I mean, I'm laughing, but I'm not laughing. I'm like, that's an insane thing to say. And actually, a reporter confronted him later on. It was great. Sean McCree, shout out over at the New York Times. Been a fan of his for a long time. And he was like, why are you the only person in your government saying that Iran has a tomahawk missile? He's like, not even your own secretary of defense says that. And he goes, well, we're investigating it and I'll live with whatever the report was. So even he walked it back in the immediate term.
25:21Saagar Enjeti:McCree was like, you're saying that Iran somehow got a tomahawk missile and bombed their own school. No one else is saying that. Why are you the only person that's saying that? And then Trump backpedals to like, well, there's an investigation. I mean, just unbelievable bullshit that even Pete Hegseth is, you know, has enough shame that he won't go along with. So they default to like, oh, it's an investigation. And, you know, this has been like it should be and it is a massive scandal. It should be an even bigger scandal. But I've seen even, you know, Laura Ingraham is like there needs to be answers to this.
25:55Saagar Enjeti:Like, how did this happen? Because the other piece is, you know, best case scenario, it's just a horrific mistake. But then you're like, why was it a double tap strike then? How did that happen? And then the other question, obviously, is was this an AI generated target? You know, was that why this occurred? Because there was another instance where they bombed something called Police Park. Now, this may have been the Israelis because it's been largely the Israelis who have been bombing the police stations, just trying to completely break down any sort of civil order and create the, you know, foment the conditions for this, you know, imaginary uprising.
26:31Saagar Enjeti:Same thing that they did in Gaza, by the way, when they were trying to get the people to rise up against Hamas. Obviously, that never happened either. But in any case, in the context of bombing all these police stations, they bombed something called Police Park, which is literally just a park. So what seemed to indicate potentially, you know, AI was just generating like anything that says police, let's just bomb that. There was no intensive human review to find out you're literally bombing like a playground in a soccer field or something like that. And so they go forward with that. Like, how did this happen?
27:04Saagar Enjeti:Because bombing in an elementary school where you have 168 girls who are now murdered and more than a dozen of their teachers who are now murdered on the very first day of the world, of the war is a moral atrocity. And it also, you know, we're going to show you some of the hardening of nationalist sentiment within the country. Like when you see your little children being murdered at the hands of this, you know, enemy government that attacked you on the, legally attacked you out of the blue and killed your leader, et cetera, you know, how do you think that's going to make people feel? It's going to make them much more committed to want to fight and die for the cause of their country.
27:44Saagar Enjeti:So, you know, just disgusting for Trump to lie. And it's so honestly, it's so disrespectful to the people of the world and the people of this country to think we're just going to buy this bullshit. You know, I'm sure his cult members will, but the rest of the country is going to look at this and be like, that is utter and complete garbage. You should be horrified by it.
28:03Krystal Ball:I also think that it's a massive disservice to the military. It's one of those where we had a culture originally. And again, you can say a lot of bad things about Iraq and Afghanistan. But generally, there was a culture, and I covered many of these. When you did something like this, you were going to pay.
28:18Saagar Enjeti:It was a scandal. There was going to be a real investigation. There were likely to be some kind of consequences.
28:23Krystal Ball:And the thing is, is that, and think about this too. Now you've got the person who probably fired the tomahawk. They've got to live with this forever. The only way that they should be able to live with it is to know that there's accountability up the chain of command. Because again, the individual sailors or any of the people who fire these, they don't know. They're just programming things from the Pentagon. Who in the Pentagon created the strike package? What was the process where the strike package happened? Remember MyLai? I mean, we did a whole after-action thing on the MyLai massacre or any of the atrocities, the Kunduz Hospital.
28:52Krystal Ball:I read the whole report. You can Google it. You can go and read it for yourself if you want to know the step-by-step process. It used to be one where we would take this stuff very seriously. Now, I was, oh, it was Iran. I mean, again, the way that you know that it wasn't, because I even saw some COPE, not even COPE, but somebody said, You know, one alternative, which is even more horrifying, is that whenever we struck Iran previously, that they were able to acquire a dud Tomahawk missile. And I was like, I'm pretty sure that that didn't happen. But if it did, that would be as much of a scandal, you know, at the same time.
29:23Krystal Ball:But beyond, like, all of this.
29:26Saagar Enjeti:Yeah, it's so far-fetched. It has to be utterly preposterous.
29:29Krystal Ball:It has to be fired and created. You know, it's like it's not so simple as just, like, getting a Tomahawk missile. But the whole point around for our military culture is one where you don't want to encourage, cover up, or make it so that you don't acknowledge these types of incidents. Because we know from our long history that that would only encourage and institutionalize a bad process. And that's not what we want. It's counter to our strategic aims, our tactical aims, obviously. And also 168 people or 168 little girls are literally dead. It's insane. Not to mention, what, seven U.S. soldiers.
30:02Krystal Ball:I just saw the news. You know, one of those guys who they're claiming, one of those guys who were claiming had a health, died of a health. Medical incident. He's NYPD cop, father of six children, you know, coming back in a coffin. Like, it's the worst possible thing for all of these people who are involved.
30:20Saagar Enjeti:I was just going to say, to your point about, you know, look, obviously I have long-term critiques of the U.S. military and, you know, the lack of care for civilians and all of that. But, yeah, I mean, the first, like, big video that WikiLeaks published was the collateral murderer video, which showed an Apache helicopter targeting, you know, journalists and civilians. And that was a massive scandal, you know. And so, you know, I think partly, too, what has happened here is with all of us watching the Gaza genocide happen on our timelines, they do think that they can just get away with anything.
30:57Saagar Enjeti:And now you see the U.S. directly copying the Israeli tactics of, OK, if we do if we spark a little public outrage, we'll just say, you know, oh, we don't know. Maybe it was them. Maybe first we'll try. Oh, maybe it was actually the Iranians who, you know, bombed their own elementary school. See if people buy that. And if they won't, then you say, oh, there'll be an investigation. And then you just, you know, let the news cycle move on. And that's where we are. Yeah.
31:23Krystal Ball:Last thing we wanted to show you was this report from inside of Iran, Dr. Mohammed Muran. Now, again, he joined John Kirikow. We always give the caveat he's very pro-regime. He has sources, though, so we're trying to show you all sides of the conflict. He says that Iran wants to wait until the midterms are over in order to keep this war going as long as possible. Let's take a listen.
31:44Brandon Weichert:I've been informed today by a significant political figure that Iran plans to continue this war until the midterms in the United States. And they are planning to force the United States to leave. And the more this war escalates, the darker it becomes for U.S. allies across the region. for the Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf, this, if it continues for much longer, they won't survive. Remember, these are all dictatorships, family dictatorships. And the passport holders in these small entities are sometimes 10%, 15 % of the whole population. So in the Emirates, you have 1.4 million people who are Emiratis, the rest, 10 million or so, I guess, they're there.
32:51Brandon Weichert:But if the state collapses, those slaves and indentured servants and the underclass, they may have something to say about the future of the Emirates or Qatar or Kuwait.
33:07Krystal Ball:So you could see there the strategic of calculus from inside. And here's the thing, you don't even really need to trust him. I think you just need to look at their public statements. We're not going to surrender. They're going after President Trump in retaliation for some sort of fire and fury. I also think everyone should really pay attention to all of our interviews with Dr. Trita Parsi because he was dead on before the war and he's been dead on since. And he's like, look, if they end the war right now, they're going to be very weak. And they believe in their hearts that the 12-day war ending was a disaster because it gave the Israelis and the U.S.
33:36Krystal Ball:time to rearm before they hit them again. How could they possibly have any assurance that they won't get hit again after we've bombed them twice, twice that we've launched wars with them, after, you know, and under the cover of diplomacy? You would never trust that ever again. The only way to make any sort of trust is to inflict maximum damage for as long as possible to try and destroy the global economy. Like, that's their one chance at being able to survive. You've got the new Ayatollah, who's, I mean, I can't even give you the list of how many relatives this guy is dead. I read a profile of him yesterday.
34:07Krystal Ball:We really don't know much about him. We only heard his voice once, apparently, in public in 2024. But the only propaganda video of him released is cleaning his gun during the Iran-Iraq war. Not great. Also, somebody who had apparently long fostered relations with the IRGC and tried to put down or bolster some of the hardline factions during protests in 09. So you've got the ideological component, the fact that his, you know, his father has been killed, his wife, his daughter, or sorry, his son, one of his children who was killed in this strike. And you're like, oh man, like we're dealing with somebody.
34:40Krystal Ball:If anything, this is the guy who's going to repeal a fatwa on nuclear weapons. You can understand from a psychological, personal perspective and an ideological, you fuse those two things together. What would you do?
34:50Saagar Enjeti:And a tactical perspective, this is from their own strategic perspective, they should have pursued a nuke. That would have been a deterrent. I mean, so, you know, and there have been many hardliners who have, you know, pushed in that direction, but it has not happened, I think, predominantly because of the fatwa that was issued by the now dead Ayatollah. And so, yeah, you could easily see, and think of the insanity of that. Think of the insanity of that. So one of the many stated goals of this whole war is to prevent them from getting, from acquiring a nuclear weapon. And there is a very strong possibility you've just made it more likely that they will pursue a nuclear weapon, not less.
35:30Saagar Enjeti:Last thing, to your point about Trita Parsi, I just wanted to read his analysis he posted about the Trump press conference, which was, as we said, all over the place. He said Trump's all over the place presser appears to have had two key objectives. A, calm the markets by signaling the conflict may soon be over because it had been so quote unquote successful. And B, prepare the ground for Trump ending the war through a unilateral declaration of victory, though ending a war that never should have started in the first place rather than fighting it endlessly in the pursuit of an illusory victory as the U.S.
35:57Saagar Enjeti:did in Afghanistan is the right move. It will not be as easy as Trump appears to think. Tehran also has a vote, and there is little to suggest that it will agree that the war is over. And then he goes on to talk more about the Iranian perspective. But that is really the bottom line here. Even if Trump wants to taco, And there are some indications here that he and his advisors are trying to look for a way to taco, which would be great. Even if he does that, he may be already in a trap. The Iranians do not seem to be in any mood to back down. So that is the lay of the land. As of today, it is, you know, looks like we are in an escalation trap.
36:39Saagar Enjeti:Looks like this thing is only expanding, only going to get more deadly, only going to grind on further into, you know, what may end up being a sort of war of attrition where, you know, that's why we're going to talk to Brandon Weikert later on, you know, what lasts longer, our interceptors or their drones, which they're able, by the way, to continuously manufacture. Which one is willing to bear more pain? The Iranians for whom this is literally existential in terms of both their lives and their country or the Americans who do not even want this war and are not interested in paying any sort of price for it.
37:13Saagar Enjeti:You know, I think most Americans probably sort of like the idea of, oh, the Iranians are bad. Let's overthrow their regime. But they do not support this. And they're not willing to bear much of any cost in order to accomplish the ever shifting goals articulated by the Trump regime. Yeah, that's right.
37:29Brandon Weichert:All right. So let me confess something. I grabbed a Sky Pop protein soda thinking, sure, we'll see. And I was fully prepared for protein drink disappointment. But it tastes like actual soda, like crisp, cold, refreshing soda, the kind you crave on a hot day, except it has 10 grams of complete protein, zero sugar, and only 45 calories. And it's not thick or chalky and not that guess this is good for me kind of vibe. It's just soda with benefits. Protein doesn't have to be boring or feel like something you just check off your daily list. Sky Pop Protein Soda, big taste, real benefits. Get yours now at Target or Walmart.
38:01Brandon Weichert:Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, And now, Generated Assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks.
38:33Brandon Weichert:Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities. Completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash podcast. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.
39:01Brandon Weichert:Are you trying to get weight loss support through telehealth, but it feels overwhelming and rushed? Check out orderlymeds.com now. Now, orderlymeds.com was built to be different. Here, you connect with real doctors who take the time to understand your goals, review your eligibility, and guide you through a plan that's right for you. Orderly Meds provides access to proven GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and terzepatide, including both name brand options and personalized compound versions when appropriate. So you have choices backed by clinical oversight, not guesswork. It's a simpler, more supportive telehealth experience design around people who want clarity, care, and confidence in their weight loss journey.
39:40Brandon Weichert:And your medication is delivered directly to your home in discreet packaging. So your experience stays private from start to finish. Do your research. Ask the right questions. Then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer. Again, that's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details.
40:03Krystal Ball:Let's move on to Israel. Yeah.
40:05Saagar Enjeti:So we've got, you know, sort of a parallel story here going on from the Israelis, where we just talked about how some of Trump's aides are leaking to the press, like, oh, we're trying to figure out how to get out of this thing. Well, the Israelis are apparently leaking to David Ignatius, who's known to be very like tied in with the deep state over at the Washington Post, that they are also concerned. So this is worth taking note of with interest. Put this up on the screen. So the headline is Israeli officials are growing concerned. A bombing campaign nearing its military goals in Iran leaves the hardest questions unanswered.
40:36Saagar Enjeti:A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating open-ended attack on Iran and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy. Talk of an endgame is early and a decision about whether to stop the attacks rests largely with President Donald Trump. That's not what he said, by the way, in any case, who continues to seek all-out victory. But in a telephone conversation Sunday, a senior Israeli official familiar with the planning and strategy for the Iran war discussed alternatives to Trump's call for unconditional surrender.
41:11Saagar Enjeti:Official requested anonymity. So that is kind of the line coming out from these Israeli officials is, look, our bases are taking, you know, direct hits. We're going to talk later about the radars that have been damaged. You know, our Gulf allies are really unhappy. in a variety of ways. We'll talk about that as well. But the Israelis are taking active fire in their country. And we really don't have a clear view of just how much damage has been done. But they have to be looking at the same interceptor math that we've been talking about in the context of this war, that we talked about in the context of the 12-day war, and going, I'm not sure how much we are able or willing to sustain.
41:53Saagar Enjeti:So they may be, you know, Now, reportedly, after the 12-day war, it was really the Israelis who were the ones who said, let's call this quits for now. You know, let's come to some sort of a ceasefire. Let's end these hostilities for now over precisely some of these same concerns. And I think, Sagar, they would probably be happy adopting effectively like a mow the lawn strategy, like what they've done in Gaza for years and years, where you go in, destabilize, blow a bunch of shit up, You know, make it impossible for the country of Iran to grow and thrive and succeed. You know, create a bunch of chaos.
42:29Saagar Enjeti:And then once the price gets too much to bear for you or public sentiment starts to turn global sentiment, I should be clear, the Israeli public is very much on board with this war. But once global sentiment starts, OK, then we'll we'll you know, we'll stop for now and then we'll go back in at a future time. That seems to be what they're aiming for. But of course, you know, this is subject to the same problem that the Trumpian logic of, you know, if Trump wants to taco is subject to as well, which is that they there is another party to this. And the Iranians seem to have learned a lesson from the 12 day war.
42:59Saagar Enjeti:They seem to regret having agreed to that ceasefire then, which just allowed the Israelis and the Americans to rebuild and reequip so that they could come back in with an even more aggressive illegal war.
43:12Krystal Ball:Yeah, and what I see in terms of the Israeli strategy is more of an acknowledgement of the widening of the conflict where I really do – it does seem to me that the Israelis in the U.S. actually believed a lot of their own BS that they wouldn't strike elements of the Gulf. They just thought that this is a nightmare scenario, same with the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. It was one of those like tail end risks but not something that was really from what they were thinking would happen. I mean, Ignatius even writes that the bombing campaign was nearing the point of achieving its military objectives.
43:42Krystal Ball:But what they find is that, of course, we wish to topple the regime, but that's not the only endgame. This is the Israeli. Once the major military targets have been eliminated, Israel would have achieved its goals. Iran won't surrender, but it can send messages to accept a ceasefire within U.S. conditions. But what that ignores is how the Iranians are going to respond, number one, and they've already gone for the MAX strategy. But two, I think what they're also seeing from the Israeli perspective is they're like, oh, man, now we're tied at the hip here with the United States, with Trump. We're tied at the hip, obviously, with them.
44:13Krystal Ball:They want to declare this some sort of regime change, but they're also learning as we continue to see their strikes all over Israel. I mean, look, the war has already widened. Israeli soldiers have even been killed now with Hezbollah. They're having to expand into Lebanon. And what they like, as you said, is having the boogeyman exist. But if they actually go forward, then what are they going to do? They can't rile up their whole population every few years and say, oh, well, we have to go bomb them because of their nuclear threat. If they actually did replace the regime, then they would have to, first of all, we'd have to live with their consequences.
44:43Krystal Ball:And people could see how much of a nightmare that it's all become. But I think more than anything, this is probably more about munitions math and it's about defense readiness and the reality of a long war and what it's all going to look like.
44:55Saagar Enjeti:Yeah, well, and there were also some indications before Trump kicked off this war that it was the Israelis. Again, this was some reporting that came out. You know, Netanyahu come to visit Trump in December. And it looks like that's when they made the decision like, OK, we're going to go to war. And in my opinion, all the negotiations were totally fake, as evidenced by the fact that they sent two guys who really didn't know what they were talking about in order to lead these alleged negotiations. And, of course, while you're in the midst of these negotiations and the Iranians have just given up more concessions than they have ever had.
45:25Saagar Enjeti:that's the moment when you choose to actually start the war. But in any case, there was reporting that it was actually the Israelis that were like, wait, wait, wait, we're not ready to start yet. And the U.S. moved even more firepower into the region, moved another carrier strike group into the region. And so the alleged diplomacy was to kind of run out the clock so that the war could start at a time when we would be somewhat more prepared. Just imagine how disastrous this would have been if it started even earlier, when we were even less prepared, given what a disaster it already is. So, yeah, I mean, the Israelis are the ones taking the direct hits in their country.
45:59Saagar Enjeti:And so they now realize that I don't know if they ever believe they probably didn't, that if they decapitated the regime, that the whole thing would collapse. But once that has not come to fruition, there's no signs that you're going to have some sort of regime change. The Kurds are like, we're not getting involved here. You're not looking at civil war conditions at this point. then the next best option for Israel is to say, OK, well, we blew up a bunch of shit. You know, Iran has paid a price. We'll back off for now and then we'll come back later. You know, we'll do the same thing. We got Trump in office for a few more years.
46:33Saagar Enjeti:We can, you know, later on, we'll talk him into this again. We'll once again threaten to strike Iran. If he doesn't, we'll once again, you know, talk about how they're rebuilding their nuclear program. By the way, that might be true. Now, given the logic that we have created, it gives them every incentive to go in that direction. So I think that's some of the calculus there. At the same time, we wanted to take a look at our friend Lindsey Graham, who we covered yesterday, you know, reporting about we already knew he was very influential in terms of pushing for this war. This is a near lifelong dream at this point.
47:05Saagar Enjeti:There is no one happier, I think, on the planet right now than this bloodthirsty ghoul. And so he was making the rounds over on Fox News yesterday, just talking about how much he is committed to Israel, how much he loves Israel, etc. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.
47:21Brandon Weichert:All the anti-Semites to all the isolationists, I don't believe. Forget it. I'm not with you. I'm with Israel. I will be with Israel to our dying day. They're the best ally we could hope for. So we have a commander in chief and President Trump who I think is Ronald Reagan plus plus plus. God bless Israel. We should move all our stuff to Israel. Thank you.
47:42Saagar Enjeti:God bless Israel. Should move all our stuff to Israel. I'll be with Israel to my dying day. I mean, this is a United States senator. Him and Ted Cruz both out there just openly admitting that this is their number one priority. Calling Trump Ronald Reagan plus is also really something. And it's important to play these comments and understand this man's mindset because he has been very influential. He had a plan to push Trump in this direction. Again, Trump's a big boy. This is his fault, ultimately. And the reporting is that he ended up being pretty enthusiastic about going in this direction. But Lindsey Graham has been there making the case routinely, religiously for years now at this point.
48:23Saagar Enjeti:And so in a lot of ways, you know, he is he is driving this train or at least he is. incredibly important in terms of why we ended up in this whole disaster.
48:33Krystal Ball:It's funny. Magda's like, President Trump, please keep Lindsey Graham off the air. He's hurting your case. I'm like, no, no, no, no, no. He's the only fucker who's telling us all the truth. He's in here with a blood relationship where they've got some like Angelina Jolie, Billy Bob Thornton wearing each other's blood around their necks. Some satanic ritual that's going on between the two of them. We'll only speculate. But that's what's really going on with old Lindsey and Israel, but that's the truth. You know, yesterday, Laura Ingraham even had Ted Cruz on her show, and she's like, you don't think it's a little weird that Lindsey Graham is going over to Israel and, you know, coordinating with their intelligence agencies on how to pressure the president?
49:13Krystal Ball:Well, he loves America. That's what Ted Cruz goes. He loves America. No, he doesn't. He even said at one point in the interview, he's like, I'm going back to South Carolina to convince them to send their sons and daughters to the Mideast. I am just like, Oh, my God. Good luck. Yeah. And look, people of South Carolina, at this point, you guys have had plenty of chances. I don't know what the hell you guys are doing down there. But, you know, the real point that remains is that we are in some suicidal blood pact with this country. A significant part of our electorate is either compromised or ideological.
49:46Krystal Ball:For him, I do think it's ideological, 100 percent, because he's been saying this for decades.
49:50Saagar Enjeti:A little from column A, a little from column B. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, who knows, right?
49:53Krystal Ball:But, I mean, he's been saying it for 20, 30 years. Like this is his entire worldview, but it does demonstrate the, you know, what we're all into. And the Israelis may say to David Ignatius that they're a little worried, but their calculus is always escalate, escalate, escalate, escalate. And you can also see how in the Gulf we are dramatically losing a lot of our allies. Like let's go and put to the next one, please, B3. Good example. So you have the UAE, which says that the Emirates reaffirms their commitment not to allow their airspace, territory, waters to be used for any military actions against Iran.
50:28Krystal Ball:Now, that's not even true, right, because you can already see that there has obviously been a lot of launchers and other things, who knows, even with their own base. But what they're trying to do is signal to Iran that they have nothing to do with this. You've also had multiple instances now where the UAE is upset with Israel because they're saying, oh, hey, Israelis, stop trying to leak that we are responsible for some attack on a desalination plant. And even the Iranians are responding. Recently, the Pentagon posted a picture of some missile batteries that were in the desert. And the Iranian foreign minister was like, thank you for confirming that you have these weapons on their soil, which is the exact reason that we are striking you.
51:08Saagar Enjeti:But the point of Trump and his presser yesterday said that Gulf states had launched attacks. Right.
51:14Krystal Ball:I mean, who knows if that's true or not? Probably true. You ask me. But let's go to the next part, because this is very interesting. This was passed around everywhere. I referenced it a little bit in our show. Is this UAE billionaire who has been accusing the U.S. of dragging the region into the war and rejecting calls from the Gulf states to join? He gave this long missive. I'm sure you saw it. criticize Trump? Who authorized you to drag our region into war? And as I explained yesterday, there's no such thing as like an independent billionaire in these countries. Like you only speak and you do it twice, especially if the government is like, yeah, man, go ahead.
51:49Krystal Ball:All of your, you know, it's like China, like business is part of the state. That's literally how they wield all of their power. It's all inter, it's intertwined for their own national interests. He is giving, you know, these long, like Bill Ackman style essays about how bad America's decision is, how dangerous it is, how they've weakened their country, how they have to question their alliances, how they're not going to join the rest of the Gulf states and being dragged in. It's the last. All they want is for this conflict to end. And you can see why. I mean, look at this map. Let's go to the next one, guys, just to show you all.
52:23Krystal Ball:I mean, look at, I mean, to describe this as not a regional slash global war at this point is preposterous. If you're watching our show, look at the arrows of all of the different countries that have either been attacked or been backed by, or sorry, attacked by the United States, Israel, whether they've been bombed, whether Iran has bombed them, the type of rockets, the number of strikes. And we're talking about thousands at this point of munitions that have all crossed all of these different borders just in the span of what, like 10 days that we've gone now so far. I believe that the number is now 20 different countries that are now directly or indirectly involved in this conflict.
52:59Krystal Ball:It's completely, I mean, it's gone literally global. Cyprus, obviously the French, the entire French Navy is on its way right now down to the Middle East. It's literally a catastrophe and it's only been 10 days. It's crazy.
53:11Saagar Enjeti:Well, and to go back to our friend Lindsey Graham, I don't know who this man thinks he is, but he's out there directly like threatening Saudi Arabia and offering them certain, you know, defense agreements if they go along and fully participate in the bombing campaign. This is B2. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.
53:28Brandon Weichert:I like to my friends in Saudi Arabia. I've been your biggest champion. I think the crown prince has taken Saudi Arabia in a completely different direction in a good way. But here's what I want to say to Saudi Arabia tonight. I'm willing to do a mutual defense agreement with your country to give you protection in perpetuity under the agreement I've been pushing. And I hope we can continue to talk about if you're attacked by Iran, we would go to war for you.
53:54Saagar Enjeti:Who are you?
53:55Krystal Ball:Who said that?
53:56Saagar Enjeti:You're not like you're not the president. You're not in the cabinet. You're not the secretary of war. You're not the secretary of state. You're you're now freelancing, offering defense agreements to various countries. And I think the Saudi piece, though, is really important. I understand why he's so upset about it, because there was some reporting that Saudi was low key or high key interested in this war, supportive of this war. I don't know whether that's true or not. The Saudis denied it. It could have been, you know, sort of a planted story. But in any case, they have a long-term rivalry with Iran.
54:25Saagar Enjeti:So they also stand to benefit if Iran and if the Iranian government is weakened. But at the same respect, you know, they are feeling very exposed. They don't want their country to continue to be attacked. And so even Saudi Arabia, which, of course, has been a very long-time ally of the U.S., probably our biggest, you know, one of our biggest allies in the region, our biggest downside of Israel. If they're even doing the calculus of like, I don't know if we really want to be involved with this, that shows you the thinking here. And for Iran, you know, winning this war for Iran just means survival, right?
54:59Saagar Enjeti:That's the ultimate goal is just surviving the onslaught and being able to continue with this particular governmental regime. That's what winning looks like. But the bigger aspirational goal would be to push the U.S. out of some of these countries in the region. And, you know, it seems far-fetched at this point, but if you're Saudi, if you're UAE in particular, and you're looking at the fact that you thought you were getting protection from the U.S. and instead it's made you a target, well, that is going to change your calculus. That is going to change how you're thinking about your relationship with this country and what you're getting out of it.
55:37Saagar Enjeti:There was that, wasn't a Saudi analyst that went on, you know, Al Jazeera and was like, they're not protecting us, they're protecting the Israelis. That's their number one priority. And again, that wouldn't have been said if it was not sort of permitted and greenlit by the government. So they're feeling very exposed. They're begging to be able to buy more interceptors. We're like, not in, we've like ghosted them, not answering their phone calls. Sorry, we don't have any available to sell you. And if we did, we would, you know, prioritize Israel over you. And they are feeling like we, instead of getting protection to the U.S., We have been destroyed.
56:12Saagar Enjeti:And for, you know, for UAE, Dubai, like these places are not going to recover. All these influencers who brought in all these wealthy expats, they are all fleeing, leaving their dogs behind, by the way, which is disgusting to, you know, tying them to just like dropping them off at shelters that are over full and tying them to lampposts and whatever, and just abandoning them there. But in any case, they're all fleeing. The brand damage that Dubai and these other locales are sustaining is going to be irreparable. I mean, you're talking about generations before that goes back to the image that it had previously.
56:48Saagar Enjeti:So yeah, I understand why he's upset because this is not the reaction that he wanted from these Gulf states as they recalculate exactly what they're doing with their U.S. defense partnerships.
57:01Krystal Ball:It is scary. One of the things I've been holding this, we're about to talk about this with Brandon Weicker, but just to give you some more global picture. Just this morning, South Korea and the United States confirming that significant parts of their THAAD batteries, those interceptors, will be taken from the South Korean peninsula for the Middle East, in addition to Patriot interceptors all across the Indo-Pacific region. So we have burned through 5.6 billion in munitions in two days, the first two days of the war,$5.6 billion. The munitions disaster, we will never know the full picture because they're just going to classify it to hell.
57:38Krystal Ball:Look at the actions. When you start pulling stuff out of South Korea, that means you burn through the stockpile to the point where you think it's going to be critical and you're going to have to use it. One more week. It's been only been 10 days and we already have to do this. How are we going to, we're going to fight a war with China? I mean, that's the, that's the, like the joke of this entire thing. Forget about it.
57:56Saagar Enjeti:I mean, and that also underscores that we've been talking about, okay, roughly a billion dollars a day to fund this. That's not even true. Definitely. What is that? If you're talking about just 5.6 billion in just munitions, I mean, God only knows what the ultimate right tag is.
58:08Krystal Ball:During the war in Afghanistan, the estimate was that for every soldier downrange, it was$1 million in order to keep them. And we had 100 ,000 or some people, so you can do the math on how that works out. But it is such a nightmare for defense readiness, for all these allies. This is going to seriously rewrite the entire way a lot of countries look at us. And it was all preventable. That's the craziest part about it. I mean, it's all by choice. Literally all by choice. preventable. All right, let's get to Iran.
58:37Brandon Weichert:You know that moment around 2 p.m. when you realize you haven't eaten protein, but you also don't want a heavy shake? I have a solution. Sky Pop Protein Soda. It tastes like soda. It's light, bubbly, refreshing, but with 10 grams of complete protein, zero sugar, and only 45 calories. So I don't have to think about it. I'm just packing lunches, answering emails, doing everything, and I just grab one to go. It really does feel lighter than those big functional drinks, and you're still getting real benefits and not something you force yourself to drink. Sky Pop Protein Soda, reach for the sky. Get yours now at Target.
59:34Brandon Weichert:It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash podcast. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool.
1:00:03Brandon Weichert:Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. When people turn to telehealth or weight loss, they're looking for real support. That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com. Orderly Meds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and terzeptatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience and all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research, ask questions, then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer.
1:00:31Brandon Weichert:That's borderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details.
1:00:42Saagar Enjeti:All right, so we've covered the Americans, covered the Israelis. Let's talk about how the Iranians are thinking about this war right now. CNN has a reporter on the ground who was able to interview a top foreign policy advisor to the Ayatollah about their war aims and how they're looking at things at this point. Let's take a listen to that.
1:00:57Brandon Weichert:So the United States says it's drastically degraded the Iranian military, the capabilities as far as missiles is concerned, drones is concerned. How much longer can you do this? That is one of the false narratives that the United States government is producing. Iranian military is quite strong, as you see, because they have the motivation, they have the arms that they need, which are produced in Iran. As a matter of fact, we are not dependent on any other country for weapons and arms. So your side is ready for a long war, if the United States and Israel choose that.
1:01:45Krystal Ball:Do you consider this an existential threat to the Islamic Republic?
1:01:49Saagar Enjeti:It is an existential threat to the Islamic Republic, and therefore we have to stay with full might, as we are doing now.
1:01:59Krystal Ball:Is your side seeking or will you seek a ceasefire with the United States at this point in time and with Israel?
1:02:06Saagar Enjeti:I don't see any room for diplomacy anymore because Donald Trump has been deceiving others and not keeping with his promises.
1:02:16Brandon Weichert:And we experienced this in two times of negotiations that while we were engaged in negotiation.
1:02:23Saagar Enjeti:I mean, that last part there is just incontrovertible fact that we have repeatedly used the promise of diplomacy as a ruse and a cover to actually commit acts of war. So, you know, it's not surprising that's the way they're thinking about it. And, of course, the Iranians, you know, they want to project strength. They want to project stability. That is all in their interest. And, of course, you should take any government official, whether it's ours, the Israelis or the Iranians, with a million grains of salt. But I think that the logic is pretty straightforward. They just need to survive. They understand they cannot allow Israel and the U.S.
1:03:00Saagar Enjeti:to walk away now having sustained some blow, but nothing really significant. You know, American consumers are not super feeling the pain at the pump quite yet. The markets are volatile, but they're just sort of roiling rain. You haven't had a huge collapse. You have not had enough pain to deter either the U.S. or America from doing this. Sorry, the U.S. or Israel. They're one in the same at this point, I guess, from doing the same thing again. And so I believe them when they say, look, we are locked in for a long war. This is what we are planning. And so, listen, they have surely sustained significant blows.
1:03:38Saagar Enjeti:Right. I think the Navy has been significantly degraded. I think we have hit a lot of the visible missile launching sites. I think we've all seen the images of Tehran, these apocalyptic images that, you know, effectively carpet bombing, the number of sites, thousands of targets hit, etc. So I'm not saying they haven't been hit hard, but they are fighting an asymmetric war where what we have to do is, I mean, the goals are shifting on a daily basis. We got a new list of supposed goals this morning in this press conference. But what we have to do requires extraordinary acts, including very likely putting ground troops on, you know, inside of Iran in order to, you know, grab the loose nuclear material or foment some sort of regime change or whatever.
1:04:20Saagar Enjeti:And all they have to do is hold on and make the price unbearably high for us and for the Israelis.
1:04:26Krystal Ball:Yeah, it's a fight of survival versus a fight basically of choice, of convenience. It's like a side quest, basically.
1:04:33Saagar Enjeti:Yeah, that's right.
1:04:34Krystal Ball:At this point. I mean, and that's why I've used Trump's legacy, Israel's existentialist, Israel's biblical fantasies, Israel's like third temple fantasies. But for us, I mean, for me, seven kill too many for them. They've lost over a thousand people. They're barely even blinking an eye. I mean, we remember if you roll the tape, we were like, look, guys, they are prepared to take 90 percent casualties at the top. They are ready to fight to the death. I do not think that we understand. We haven't fought an enemy like that in, well, actually recently with the Taliban, but like really at a large industrial scale since Vietnam to like really understand what it means.
1:05:11Krystal Ball:Remember, we won the tactical war in Vietnam. Every time I make the joke about Mac v. Tehran, the joke is that it's called Military Assistance Command Vietnam. And what they would do in the Vietnam War is, today we killed 250 VC in the firm. And we dropped X amount of bombs, the same amount of bombs that we dropped on Dresden some 20 years ago. And America was like, wow, yeah, we killed 250. Statistics are all fake. But the point was, did it work? No. I mean, we ended up losing the war in Vietnam. We dropped X amount of munitions in Operation Rolling Thunder than the entire Second World War. and everyone was like, wow, look at us taking the fight to North Vietnam.
1:05:52Krystal Ball:And the North Vietnamese were like, we don't care. We'll take a million casualties and we're just going to keep fighting. They're like, this is a war of colonialism to the death and whatever it takes, no matter what, we will outlast you until our – their leader literally died and they kept the war going forever. They won that war. That's all you have to do, survive, survive. And ultimately, that's how you're able to beat the – same with Afghanistan. Not just us, Soviet Union. How did the Soviet Union, I wouldn't say it broke their back, but it really hurt them with their 10-year-long engagement.
1:06:23Krystal Ball:They blew the shit out of that country. And if you think Israel is unrestrained, the Soviets fought that way in Afghanistan. They didn't care at all. They murdered women and children, bombing campaigns, helicopter raids, brutal, brutal stuff. They still lost, right? And that wasn't just the Taliban. That was just generic mujahideen funded by the United States. So you can see the storybook for all of this over the years, which is why for them, that's another thing. Why do we not give credit to our enemies? Like we look at them as barbarian idiots or all the stuff I grew up in the mid-2000s hearing about these people.
1:07:01Krystal Ball:The current Ayatollah, he speaks fluent English if you're wondering. Do you hear that guy too? These people are very well-educated. They're not stupid. They've studied us for a long time, 47 years that we're always talking about. Well, that's 47 years of us studying them and 47 years of them studying us. These are highly educated people who have thought a lot about their collective defense. Now, listen, I'm not going to defend every decision they make. I think they made a lot of screw ups along the way, but we are where we are. Like you have to respect your enemy and the people who you are fighting.
1:07:31Krystal Ball:And it is very clear after only 10 days that this has not gone the way that we thought it would. and that they have operated not just militarily, but strategically. Their ability to draw the whole region into a conflict, to plunge things into global chaos, was exactly what you would do if you're trying to fight asymmetric war. Even the drone program, you have to give credit where it's due. They studied the environment and they go, okay, we don't have a lot of money. What's their critical, where can we strike them in an asymmetric fashion? Billion-dollar THAAD system. Ah, we'll create these drones and then we'll battle test them in Ukraine with our Russian friends.
1:08:07Krystal Ball:We'll get years and years of targeting data and see how they can get shot down and refine the process and all that. I mean, that's a smart military strategy. That's what you do when you're expecting a conflict with the West. And obviously that has been the number one problem that we face now on the battlefield. So you have to respect these people because if you don't, you're going to fall into some propaganda effort or whatever. And that's how you end up with tons of casualties.
1:08:32Saagar Enjeti:Well, and I do want to emphasize the military top brass knew that this would be a problem, right? They understood that there were incredible vulnerabilities here for the U.S. They at least had some sense seemingly. I mean, they were leaking to a number of newspapers exactly some of the problems that we have, in fact, encountered. But I think, you know, because you have Trump who has this messianic view of himself and who feels like, oh, all the experts told me that I couldn't do X and Y and Z and I did it anyway. And I was proven right. He just was not he did not want to hear it and he wouldn't hear it.
1:09:08Saagar Enjeti:He thought, oh, well, you know, I'm I had all these people warning that it'd be a disaster in Venezuela and it went so well. And all these people warning all these panic hands warning before the 12 day war in Iran. Look at what a glorious success that was and how I got to have my mission accomplished moment. So I'm just going to go back in. And by the way, my friend Bibi is telling me that this is going to go great. So we're going to do it all over again. And I think to your point, you know, the internal view of the Iranians is that they are not stupid, that they are, you know, an adversary that is capable of learning and strategic thought, etc.
1:09:41Saagar Enjeti:What is sold to the American people is that they're just crazy, you know, theocratic madmen. And so they're totally irrational and you can't deal with them. And I think Trump, because he's a stupid, uneducated person, basically bought the public story about what the Iranian government was. And again, I'm sure is being fed that by Lindsey Graham and by Bibi Netanyahu, et cetera. And so he comes in like a bull in a china shop and now has found himself in a trap that he cannot figure out how to get out of. And, you know, one of, I think, the probably tactical mistakes from the Americans and the Israelis was assassinating the Ayatollah.
1:10:17Saagar Enjeti:We could put C2 up on the screen. There were gigantic celebrations in the street in Tehran celebrating the, you know, the naming of the new Ayatollah, of course, the son of the previous Ayatollah. And so quite contrary to the idea that there was going to be some uprising against the government and that this government would fall. In fact, you've had the predictable opposite impact, which is a hardening of nationalist sentiment. Now, that doesn't mean there aren't still plenty of people in Iran who are not happy with the Islamic theocratic regime who would like ultimately some sort of different form of government.
1:10:56Saagar Enjeti:But right now, you and your family and your country are under attack. Of course, there's going to be a rally around the flag effect. Of course, that is going to happen. And that's much more of what we're seeing, at least manifesting visibly in the streets, is a hardening and a support for the existing government. Trump floated, hey, maybe we'll assassinate this new guy as well if he doesn't play ball with us, which of course he's not going to. They could well do that. They could well accomplish that. You think that that's going to be the end of this particular Iranian regime? No, of course not.
1:11:31Saagar Enjeti:They would just appoint a new one. And, you know, you know this is the case because you see how they operated with Hamas, the number of times that they killed, you know, all the senior leadership, whether they were political leadership or military leadership. Did that destroy Hamas? No. And the Iranians are much better funded and, you know, are much more sort of deeply entrenched, frankly, than Hamas is. You can see with Hezbollah as well. They thought Hezbollah was dead and gone. I think the Israeli public thought basically Hezbollah after the whole beeper attack that that was it. End of story.
1:11:59Saagar Enjeti:Hezbollah is able to fight back against the Israeli incursion into Lebanon right now. And the Israelis, the IDF on the ground, are sustaining some significant blows at the hands of Hezbollah right now. So were they set back? Absolutely. Was there a time period where they were extremely weakened? Absolutely. Are they as strong as they were before? Probably not. Are they still able to exist as a coherent organization and strike some blows against you? Yeah, absolutely. And the Iranians are much better equipped to sustain these blows than either of those organizations.
1:12:28Krystal Ball:That's all very, very true. Last thing, I think, C4, let's put this up there on the screen from DropSite. They spoke with Iranian officials, senior official there saying it is unlikely Iran would accept any temporary deal that leaves open the possibility that another war could be launched in the near future. Iran will not accept any ceasefire at this stage because what it's pursuing is not a mere end to hostilities, which can and will be easily broken by Israel and the U.S., but a deterrence-restoring outcome that creates the conditions for a lasting, enforceable settlement. The strategic logic is that holding out now, despite the cost, is the precondition for an agreement that actually holds.
1:13:05Krystal Ball:So look, I mean, we box them in to a single corner. And when you do that, you just have to sit there and take the pain for as long as possible and hope that the other side gives out.
1:13:15Saagar Enjeti:and I don't think it's coming. And they want to give us a taste of our own medicine in terms of the economic warfare that we've been waging against them for decades. They know that they have control over this incredibly important strategic choke point. Now, this is going to be very damaging to their economy as well. But again, for them, it's existential. For us, we don't even want to be doing this. So yeah, they're like, look,$200 a barrel per oil. You want that? Let's keep going. Keep doing it. Let's continue in this direction because we are going to make you pay. And I just will, you know, remind that we played earlier that thought of a professor who has some contacts within the Iranian government who is based in Tehran saying, we want to be in this at least until the midterms.
1:14:00Saagar Enjeti:They want there to be an economic price, devastating economic price that all of us, by the way, all of you out there are going to pay and the entire world, frankly, is going to pay. They want there to be a devastating economic price and a devastating political price for this president and his party. So that's what they're committed to.
1:14:19Krystal Ball:Yeah, that's right. All right, let's get to Brandon Weicker. He's a great military analyst. He's going to break down everything that's happening with Iran. Let's get to it.
1:14:39Brandon Weichert:All right, so let me confess something. I grabbed a Sky Pop protein soda thinking, sure, we'll see. And I was fully prepared for a protein drink disappointment, but it tastes like actual soda, like crisp, cold, refreshing soda, the kind you crave on a hot day, except it has 10 grams of complete protein, zero sugar, and only 45 calories. And it's not thick or chalky and not that guess this is good for me kind of vibe. It's just soda with benefits. Protein doesn't have to be boring or feel like something you just check off your daily list. Sky Pop protein soda, big taste, real benefits. Get yours now at Target or Walmart.
1:15:39Brandon Weichert:at Seasite for details. Things are feeling a little less human these days, aren't they? But isn't the whole point of progress to make things more human? That's why, at TD, when we design a product, whether it's getting you paid early or making debit card replacement easy, we ask one simple question. How does this help people? That's how we're making banking more simple, more seamless, and more intuitive. But most importantly, that's how TD is making banking more human. This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.
From the publisher
Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump threatens fury on Iran, Israel panics, Iran rejects ceasefire.
Brandon Weichert: https://x.com/WeTheBrandon?s=20
To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com
Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
