3/13/26: US Plane Crash In Iraq, Michigan Attack, Munitions Deplete, Brad Lander Joins & MORE!

11:25Ryan Grim:people are going to welcome him with open arms he'll be greeted as a liberator

11:29Saagar Enjeti:People are like, what?

11:30Ryan Grim:No. Not to mention. I mean, think about your example, just to think about it from another perspective. You know, Hegseth is up there bragging about, oh, my God, we're bombing this. We're bombing that. We're showing no mercy. It's not a fair playing field. We never meant for it to be a fair playing field. No one is under any illusion about the fact, yes, America can bomb the hell out of any place. Is that accomplishing your goals? Right. What even are your goals? Because they change every day. So there's no way to even say if you're accomplishing any particular goal. But, you know, by any objective, rational assessment right now, what you have is a situation where Iran is actually much more likely to pursue a nuclear weapon.

12:11Ryan Grim:Given the opportunity, you have a new Ayatollah in charge who is reportedly more hardline. You are destroying your own economy with the, you know, with the the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil prices going up. By the way, there's some speculation that Treasury may actually be intervening to try to suppress oil prices. That's unconfirmed. But I think that is very much a possibility. Right. You've convinced your Gulf Arab allies that having these U.S. bases in their country has been a disaster for them and made them a target rather than providing them protection. But in any case, you know, let's say you drop that bomb, like you said, Ryan, right on the Iranian president there and a bunch of civilians get killed as well.

12:52Ryan Grim:Do you think that's going to lead the civilian population to then rise up against the Iranian government? Or do you think that is going to further unite them against the U.S. and Israel and the countries that are attacking them and murdering them? Because that's the other thing that you're seeing. And there's a piece in the Financial Times, and this is just basic logic and also reflects the history of 100 years of these air campaigns. were not a single time has it worked for just an air campaign to successfully effectuate regime change. And it didn't work in Gaza either, by the way. But in any case, yeah, people are much more likely to unify and rally around the flag and say, I may not like this government, but I do like, you know, being able to send my kids to school.

13:33Ryan Grim:I do like not having my country bombed by these, you know, by these foreign countries. And so the, you know, the idea that you were just going to bomb the hell out of this place and be able to effectuate whatever ends that they thought they're going to be able to effectuate is just utterly preposterous.

13:51Saagar Enjeti:And did you see, by the way, Jim Cramer? Too incredible not to make sure that there's nobody in the country who hasn't seen Jim Cramer's post. He said, they're taunting us with$200 oil. They do not have the cards. Our military must be unleashed. Time to do what we did to Hanoi to get them to the table. And then it's one of the best community notes in Twitter history. The U.S. lost the Vietnam War and had to withdraw.

14:22Ryan Grim:FYI. In case you were not aware. It's time to lose another Vietnam, boys.

14:28Saagar Enjeti:We relentlessly bombed Hanoi. We did. Like, we absolutely did. Like, we can do that. We can, We killed probably millions of Vietnamese. Like, we have the capacity to do that. And you'll lose a lot of Americans, too.

14:44Emily Jashinsky:And you'll lose a lot of Americans, too.

14:46Ryan Grim:And to that point, Emily, we have four more confirmed deceased in the loss of this refueling aircraft that went down yesterday in Western Iraq. They say four of six crew members is, of course, the official statement from CENTCOM here. Four of six crew members on board the aircraft confirmed deceased as rescue efforts continue, meaning the other two crew members not accounted for the circumstances of the incident are under investigation. However, the loss of the aircraft was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire. The identities of the service members are being withheld currently. And so this marks the fourth American aircraft that has crashed in strange or mysterious circumstances.

15:31Ryan Grim:And now we, you know, have a mounting death toll here. We also had Sagar and I covered yesterday that they had originally covered up the number of significant casualties coming out of that first day of strikes where, you know, a number of our service members were killed and several more succumbed to their wounds. They covered up the numbers there. And now we have more details about additional casualties that are being flown out to receive care, which is an indication of the severity of the wounds that they suffered. So, you know, the government is lying to us about the casualty numbers. That much is proven at this point.

16:07Ryan Grim:And so I don't think it is conspiratorial to to wonder if you're getting the straight story about all of these various American aircraft that keep randomly falling out of the sky, but definitely have nothing to do with, you know, with Iranian action.

16:19Emily Jashinsky:Well, and we learned in the Reuters follow up to the initial report of injuries in this was the Saudi base, I believe. It was also had traumatic effects, like traumatic brain injuries from service members, like life altering injuries. Not, you know, the deaths are bad enough. And then you add to it service members who have been maimed, their lives changed forever. And we didn't know about that until we got the follow up. So already, I mean, wreaking serious devastation on Americans serving abroad. Yeah.

16:58Ryan Grim:And two weird incidents, two, involving our two different of our aircraft carriers. We've got this incident involving the USS Abraham Lincoln. They say an Iranian vessel sailed too closely. A U.S. Navy vessel attempted to fire on the Iranian vessel using its Mark 45 gun mounted to the forward deck, but missed multiple times. and ultimately a helicopter had to come in and hit it with Hellfire missiles. So that's, you know, not a not a great sign that we were just repeatedly missing this Iranian vessel. And then you have this one, the Gerald Ford, which I believe this is the one that had all of the bathroom issues.

17:42Ryan Grim:The toilet problems, yeah.

17:42Krystal Ball:The overflowing pee and poop on the ship, yeah.

17:45Ryan Grim:Yeah, the pee and poop carrier. They experienced a fire now that originated, they say, in the ship's main laundry spaces. The cause of the fire was not combat related and is contained. No damage to the ship's propulsion plant. Aircraft carrier remains fully operational. Two sailors currently receiving medical treatment for non-life-threatening injuries are in stable condition. Additional info will be provided when available. Gerald R. Ford, carrier strike group currently operating in the Red Sea in support of Operation Epstein Fury.

18:14Saagar Enjeti:Yeah, you got to clean out the lint, sailors. Come on. What are you doing?

18:18Krystal Ball:I mean, do you guys buy that line there? or do you think there's someone else going on here? I mean, we've now had three fighter jets down to friendly fire.

18:26Saagar Enjeti:The reporting from Iraq is that it was an Iraqi militia that is linked to Iran that is taking responsibility for downing this.

18:35Krystal Ball:Well, and it's not like they're even giving a plausible explanation otherwise. They're just saying one of the planes went down and the other one successfully managed to make its way back. I mean, I don't understand

18:44Saagar Enjeti:why these refueling accidents don't happen more often. Like, it's kind of insane. It is a crazy operation. They're flying as fast as they are, you know, 20, 30 yards away or whatever from each other that they are. However, it doesn't. They're extremely good at this. But if you are getting fired at by a militia from the ground, you know, maybe they took some evasive maneuver. Maybe it's somewhere in the middle. Maybe they were getting fired at. They took some evasive maneuvers. But because they were kind of locked into each other, that caused them to crash. I don't know. And the militia may also have just seen the news and then rushed to take credit for it, even though they don't do it.

19:22Saagar Enjeti:That's also possible.

19:23Emily Jashinsky:This is for a war that has like 40 percent opposition in most polling somewhere around that, which is we're less than two weeks in. And in Iraq, it's probably got more than that. Yeah.

19:36Saagar Enjeti:And one of the arguments that people have made for many years of why it's a really bad idea to attack Iran is that the Shia Iraqi population is pretty sympathetic to Iran. We have significant assets still in Iraq. We need Iraqi airspace. It just adds one more tactical problem for the U.S. there. So it's, you know, you got the green zone, you got the big mission there that can be shelled and attacked. But all of these bases produce, you know, you can project power from them, but they're also spaces of vulnerability as well.

20:14Ryan Grim:Yeah. Well, and to that point, you know, Pete Hexat, the secretary of war, tells us this is not a widening conflict. This is a shrinking conflict. And yet you have the IRGC claiming that it's once again been able to strike the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. IRGC saying its Navy launched two waves of missile and drone strikes early today, targeting the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. They claim the attack hit anti-drone systems, drone storage depots, support equipment, fuel tanks and areas where U.S. personnel were gathered using kamikaze drones. I don't know that we have confirmation on this, but this is the footage that is circulating that claims to be part of these attacks.

20:54Ryan Grim:We also have a French soldier who was killed after a French base in Iraq was hit. And then this, to me, guys, was one of the most important pieces of news that came out yesterday. You know, what we've been hearing from this administration is that, you know, they're in a game of it's a war of attrition, effectively. And they are degrading the Iranian capability to be able to launch these missiles. And so, yes, you've got these pesky drones and we don't really know how to deal with that. But the more significant missiles, we're mostly intercepting them and we are destroying their launchers so that they will no longer be able to launch these missiles at all.

21:40Ryan Grim:Well, yesterday we get this piece of news. According to Bloomberg here, Iran's missile launcher arsenal holds steady despite strikes. The number of Iranian missile launchers has held steady after a week of unrelenting airstrikes, according to Israeli and Western estimates, indicating the difficulty of finding small mobile targets without having complete control of the skies. IDF officials said Thursday two thirds of the Islamic Republic's launchers had been destroyed. That's a little change from the 60 percent reported last week. Two Western estimates on Thursday also put the number of destroyed launchers at 60 percent, with one adding that as much of 80 percent of Iran's total offensive capability had been destroyed.

22:21Ryan Grim:They are, of course, key to Iran's ability to fire its large supply. And then you have an analyst who says it's likely the Iranians are adapting tactics. Quite possible they're just preserving launchers by slowing down operations and focusing more on Shahids. And this is kind of the whole ballgame because you're, you know, from the military analysts that I've heard, you're basically in a race between, OK, are the interceptors going to run out so that they have to be rationed, et cetera, by the U.S. and by Israel? or is the Iranian ability to launch these missiles going to be degraded? Which one of those things is going to happen first?

22:57Ryan Grim:And so this is a pretty dire sign for the U.S. and Israel. And again, it's not that the U.S. can't continue to bomb the hell out of Iran. But if you actually want to accomplish your goals, which certainly at this point, one of the goals has to be reopening the Strait of Hormuz, you are not going to be able to accomplish that through air power alone. And the Iranians are going to continue to be able to, you know, to strike some significant blows, both using ballistic missiles and the Shahid drones, which, you know, have proven to be fairly effective in causing problems and creating damage throughout the region.

23:34Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, I'm curious what you make of that. You guys make of that. The only thing I'll just add really quickly is we still don't even know if our goal of our, quote, objective in the war is has anything to do with missile capacity or if it has anything to do with the nuclear capacity. So it's like I don't even know by our own stated goal, our own ambition, because it's all over the place, how significant this is. And I mean, obviously, for the tactical reasons Crystal laid out, it's significant.

24:00Saagar Enjeti:Chris Murphy, the Democratic senator who was briefed by top military officials and intelligence leaders, said that that seemed to be the thing that they were falling back on now as the actual kind of objective of the war was to degrade the missile and other productive capacity. And he said he asked, well, what happens if they rebuild it or buy more from China? And they hinted, well, maybe then we'll bomb them again in six months, which then gets to—

24:28Emily Jashinsky:Blow the lawn.

24:29Saagar Enjeti:It gets to Iran's strategy, which is they want to make this so painful for the U.S. that we think twice about getting the lawnmower back out six months from now. And to give Jeremy Scale a little credit, I think it was Tuesday that he and Maz reported and got a lot of pushback at the time. They reported that the Iranian plan was to dial down the attacks on Gulf countries, zero in on two particular Gulf countries, but then focus most of their fire on Israel for the next phase of this war. and that was, they were like, no, that's, you know, there was a lot of pushback on that but that was, that's precisely what unfolded to a T for the rest of the week.

25:11Saagar Enjeti:They're now even firing missiles from sea, Iran is. So, you know, Hegseth is going around saying, you know, we're hitting all their launchers, they can't hide.

25:20Ryan Grim:The DB's destroyed. Yeah.

25:22Saagar Enjeti:You know, they start to move them and boom, we get them. It's like, well, they're shooting them out of the water at you, bro. Like, you need, you need another solution then we're just going to keep bombing them because they have an almost, and they talk about, you know, they had 2 ,000 whatever ballistic missiles, 2 ,500, and they've shot, you know, 700, 800 of them at this point. So the Americans are kind of sort of like, oh, if we can just get to that 2 ,000, then they're out. But they have an almost unlimited number of the shorter range ones, like can't get to Israel necessarily, but can hit around the region.

25:54Saagar Enjeti:So they can't bomb them. They can't wait this out or bomb them into complete surrender.

26:02Krystal Ball:Well, and to that point as well, it's not like the Iranians haven't already inflicted significant damage on U.S. assets, bases and radar systems and satellite systems in the Gulf countries as well as in Israel. We even saw Hezbollah reportedly struck a satellite system inside of northern Israel. So they've kind of already inflicted a significant amount of damage in terms of taking out the eyes and the ears of the U.S. and Israel. And then you also have with the Strait of Hormuz, Like if Iran's broader strategy here is just to inflict maximum economic pain on the U.S. and the global economy to make this something that we wouldn't consider doing in the future, it's not like they need to be firing dozens or hundreds of missiles into the Strait of War Moos.

26:44Krystal Ball:They just need like, you know, I think it's a 16 ships at this point that have been hit. You just need kind of one a day, maybe one every couple of days to reinforce the idea that the insurance companies are not going to back up these ships. The U.S. at this point is still rejecting any sort of idea of a naval escort of some of these ships. You really don't need that much firepower in order to continue inflicting that economic pain on the U.S. in a protracted sort of war situation.

27:10Saagar Enjeti:Right. And they're still getting oil through the strait. That was the argument for why the U.S. didn't focus on the Strait of Hormuz. They're like, oh, we never thought they'd close it because they need it. They didn't think of the idea, oh, they'll just keep sending their own ships through to China. Well, we've been monitoring it since the very beginning.

27:26Ryan Grim:Yeah, we've been exporting more oil. Iran has actually increased the amount of oil that they are exporting since the beginning of this war. And military analysts say, if you actually wanted to do this thing that they floated of, you know, the Navy escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, in order to make that feasible, you would actually have to invade and occupy the coastline. That's what that would require. So that's why, you know, this hasn't been done because we, you know, as of yet, as far as we know, don't have boots on the ground in Iran. Although, you know, I think I saw somebody make a good point on Twitter, which is, listen, we have tens of thousands of service members throughout the region, which is where this, you know, these battles are being waged throughout the region.

28:08Ryan Grim:So we do have boots on the ground, just not directly in the country of Iran. This is another key piece that we've been we've been warning about even before this war and going back to our conversations about Ukraine, et cetera. They're saying U.S. has burned through years of munitions since the start of the Iran war. Rapid depletion of stockpile, including Tomahawk missiles, raises pressure on Trump over the cost of the conflict. Congress has briefed that it's cost over 11 billion dollars already as we're in just week two of this war. Ryan, I thought you had a good point about this, though. If you burn through years worth of munitions in mere days, that was not actually years worth of munitions.

28:51Saagar Enjeti:Might have taken you years to make, but it wasn't years of munitions.

28:54Ryan Grim:It was not years of munitions.

28:55Saagar Enjeti:Years worth of food just in one sitting. That wasn't years worth of food, guy.

28:59Ryan Grim:I just took it down in one meal.

29:01Saagar Enjeti:You didn't have as much food as you thought. You might have been told by Lockheed that that was years worth. Yeah.

29:08Mac:This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

29:48Mac:Start your show today at Spreaker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. A ambitious, well-intentioned, ferocious, and wealthy mother looks like in the Black community. This Woman's History Month, the podcast, Keep It Positive, Sweetie, celebrates the power of women choosing healing, purpose, and faith, even when life gets messy. Love, it's not a destination. You have to work on it every day. Keep It Positive, Sweetie creates space for honest conversations on self-worth, love, growth, and navigating life with grace and grit, led by women who uplift, inspire, and tell the truth out loud.

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31:03Mac:and I'm like my mom did a really good job of like you step back and you're like whoa we I don't know how we made it so a lot of my life was like built out of like survival to get to the next place like my drive my like tunnel vision of like I gotta be better I gotta achieve this was off the strengths of like I want to make a better life for us. If You Knew Better brings real talk from women who've lived it, unpacking career pivots, relationship lessons, and the mindset shifts that changed everything. Listen to If You Knew Better with Amber Grimes on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

31:41Krystal Ball:Well, I'm also curious what you guys think about, you know, the potential for nuclear weapons being deployed by Israel specifically or potentially from the United States, because I think this might be the kind of moment where Israel feels like it's their last best chance to topple the Iranian government or to fragment Iran into a few different states. But like, do you think that there's a legitimate likelihood that Israel could feel like, OK, maybe we're not going to get a couple months down the line a chance to do this again? There's not going to be as much of an appetite from the Americans, et cetera.

32:13Krystal Ball:Where do you guys stand on that right now?

32:15Emily Jashinsky:Well, this is reported. I mean, this is already leaking into reports about the tension between between Israel, Netanyahu, and Trump, being that Israel and Netanyahu want to push this pedal to the metal as the opportunity to totally defenestrate Iran, take care of Iran. And Trump doesn't, according to reports, isn't entirely on board with that. May he become on board with that, perhaps. But this is seen as like a generational opportunity. It's certainly seen as like a generational opportunity by the Lindsey Grahams here in the United States. And so if Israel is viewing the opportunity to topple Iran completely, totally, wholly that way, then I don't think it's foolish, especially because they've already pushed the United States beyond apparently what even members of the Trump administration, including Dan Cain, are entirely comfortable with to escalate, escalate, escalate.

33:13Emily Jashinsky:So, you know, just even talking about that gets people treated as fear mongers and fools. But again, the pattern that we are seeing here is escalation, escalation. Is Israel seeing this as a historic generational opportunity to wholly topple an enemy? And so, again, I don't think Mac's question is silly or foolish at all. We should be completely vigilant. That is exactly how these things spiral. First to boots on the ground and then the goalpost keeps moving and moving. You're losing people. The United States wants to avenge the American people start saying, well, we just they just killed 10 of our guys and it spirals and spirals.

33:52Emily Jashinsky:We've seen it before. So I don't think it's foolish at all, Mac, to even ask that question.

33:56Krystal Ball:Well, and you also have just as an addition to that, to take it into to take Iran's positioning into account in this because it's categorically different than the June 2025 war that lasted for 12 days. Because at that point, Israel, the United States asked for a ceasefire. The Ayatollah was sort of, you know, pliant to that sort of idea. And then now you have two different instances at this point where the U.S. and Iran have been in the middle of negotiations and Israel and the United States have launched unilateral wars of aggression against them. So like what motivation does Iran have at this point right now to even hypothetically consider stopping the war, given that it seems like that might just give Israel and the United States a chance to restock over the course of a couple of months and then come back and do it again?

34:46Saagar Enjeti:Yeah, and I asked Jeremy this question, what does it look like to them to have extracted enough cost so that they feel comfortable? It could be some actual out loud promises from the U.S. that they make in coordination with Russia and China and the U.N. Or it could just be a sense that this is going to be something that the American political system feels for two decades. But I don't know. It's a very good question.

35:16Ryan Grim:I got to run for now. Professor, yeah, Ryan, we'll let you go. Thank you so much for joining us. And we've got a few more Iran updates that we want to get to here. And I also want to react to Mac's question about nukes. But have a good weekend, Ryan. We'll see you soon. Great work this week. See you guys later. You know, that Professor Mohamed Mirandi, he says that the Iranian mindset is we're at least going to make this go until the midterms. because, you know, they're keenly aware of the political situation here in the U.S. They're keenly aware that Trump was already on thin ice with the population over the Epstein cover-up.

35:47Ryan Grim:They talk a lot about the Epstein class. They're quite, you know, intelligently and strategically. And, you know, I think they want to make sure that he fully pays politically a massive political price for what's going on here and that, frankly, the American people are going to, you know, are going to pay a massive economic price that, you know, and extract that pain from all of us.

36:08Emily Jashinsky:Crystal, I think you should first apologize for just using an anti-Semitic slur. I don't know if you did this on purpose, but you just referred to the Epstein class.

36:17Ryan Grim:I'm only quoting the Iranians in there, you know.

36:22Emily Jashinsky:But if you say Epstein class, this is now – and I'm not – I'm really not joking. This is actually now being called a dog whistle. A slur. Epstein class, a dog whistle anti-Semitic slur.

36:34Ryan Grim:So, yeah, Ro Khanna's getting all kinds of hatchet jobs, you know, written about him for coining the term and for daring to push for accountability. But I wanted to return to this question, Mac, that you asked about nukes. I do. I don't think it's a foolish question. I think there's definitely a possibility we get there. I don't personally think that we're there yet because, you know, Trump, I think Trump probably wants to taco at this point. Trita Parsi was saying that he's heard from the Gulf Arab partners is that Trump had told them this will take about four days. Obviously, that is not what worked out.

37:07Ryan Grim:I think that's what Trump believed. I think he did think he could do a Venezuela here in and out quick mission accomplished, prove all the haters and the doubters and the losers wrong. Curtis Roman. Yeah. And move on to the next thing. Obviously, that hasn't happened. Now, I think he would love to try to figure out some way out of this thing, but not at the expense of losing face. Like Trump and the American empire cannot lose face here. So, you know, if we say, OK, we're done, you know, one benefit of not establishing any goals is you can, you know, then make up some goal after the we wanted to degrade their launcher capacity.

37:43Ryan Grim:We did it. So we're leaving. Mission accomplished. But the problem with that is that the Iranians, they get a say in this. And the Israelis apparently get a say in this, too, because, you know, allegedly their commitment to attacking Iran is part of why we decided to jump into this thing. But the Iranians certainly get a say. And I don't think to your point, Mac, I don't think there's any reason. It would be foolish, frankly, for them at this point to back away when you have us in a lot of ways by the neck. You know, they've got their boot on the throat of our economy and they're able to inflict damage in Israel and they're able to extract pain from the Gulf allies that have allowed, you know, these attacks to originate from their soil.

38:25Ryan Grim:They'd be foolish to walk away from that. So, you know, the reason I don't think we're there yet in terms of, you know, potential Israel potentially using a quote unquote tactical nuke is because I think the U.S. is going to be the ones to escalate the next level and put boots on the ground. I think that's where this is almost inevitably going. I mean, the Iranians have said they're targeting U.S. and Israeli banks in the region. Citi and HSBC and others have had to evacuate their personnel. They've said they consider the tech companies to be complicit in this and for them to be targets as well.

39:03Ryan Grim:And then obviously we've talked at length about the Strait of Hormuz and the oil markets, etc. There is simply no way that our country is going to allow them to threaten these centers of financial capital and not escalate to the next level. So I'm fairly convinced that we will likely end up with boots on the ground, and that will be the next step up the escalation chain. Now, as we continue up that chain, does it then become more and more likely that, you know, either us or Israel, frankly, decides that they're our only way out of this thing is to go World War II style and drop some sort of a bomb to send sort of a message?

39:41Ryan Grim:And then that is, God, that's a whole Pandora's box. But, you know, the nuclear taboo is strong enough that I feel like we aren't we aren't there yet in terms of that being the next logical move. Now, you know, 10 steps down the road. Do we get there? That I think is an open possibility. But at least I'm hoping we're not there yet.

40:01Krystal Ball:Yeah. And to your point, Crystal, I think this is why we've seen Trump sort of bobbling back and forth between saying the war is all close to done and we've kind of already won the war and we've achieved victory and then bouncing. but, you know, maybe we need to do a little bit more and it's not done yet. I think he is, in some sense, trying to lay the groundwork for a taco move or to pull out and claim victory, because he's already completely changed the definition of what victory would mean. I mean, we started out here with the U.S. and the Israelis seemingly on the same page in regards to regime change, in regards to the complete destruction of their ballistic missile capacity and production capacity, destruction of their entire navy, you know, all of these different elements that it seems like Trump has sort of backed off of almost entirely at this point.

40:47Krystal Ball:So that's sort of the one hopium that I have at this point is that he will just change the definition of victory and say, okay, we won, we're done with this. But again, then you have the Israel angle, which is, you know, are they going to give up what they view as their potential last major chance? Because after this, you know, I would imagine you're going to have increased backing and reinforcements with Russia and China and their relationship with Iran. Obviously, as you said, Iran will have more of a motivation than ever to go and actually pursue a nuclear weapon for defensive purposes or for deterrent purposes.

41:20Krystal Ball:They're going to rebuild their ballistic missile stockpiles. They're going, you know, like, this isn't going anywhere in the long term magically. And so if Israel genuinely feels like this is the one chance, they, you know, they might feel like they, you know, they might take that opportunity, I guess. So it's terrifying. But Trump, I guess, chickening out as like the one thing that we can hope for, I guess.

41:41Ryan Grim:Yeah, but then, like I said, I don't think that ends the war. You know, I don't think Trump chickening out ends the war. That is the way he has trapped himself. He has now trapped himself. The taco has, in a sense, been taken off the table because the Iranian taco has been removed from the menu. No mas. Because the Iranian, the logic that we have ourselves created for the Iranians is we have to fight to the death. We have to extract a massive amount of pain. And I don't think they feel like they have done nearly enough to deter us and the Israelis in the future from just going back and doing the same thing over and over and over again.

42:27Krystal Ball:Well, and that's one of the ironic things about killing the Ayatollah is he was, in some sense, more of a restrained figure, counter to, you know, the idea pushed by Israel and the U.S. that he's this totally irrational, suicidal, you know, on a mission to destroy the entire region or whatever else.

42:43Emily Jashinsky:Well, he may have been suicidal, but yes.

42:45Krystal Ball:Well, sure, in some sense, yeah, because it seems like he was willing to allow himself to be martyred. But, you know, if you hadn't killed the Ayatollah, you probably would have been in a much better position to do a sort of short back and forth operation. And maybe there would have been some sort of a groundwork to pull out of this. But like you said, Crystal, I mean, now that the Ayatollah has been killed, the new Ayatollah, his entire core family unit was wiped out. I mean, we've made this war existential for Iran, and so they're going to try to make it existential, at least in terms of U.S.

43:13Krystal Ball:presence in the region for us as well.

43:16Emily Jashinsky:Well, we were all of us anti-interventionists were being told to take a massive L after Midnight Hammer, which, by the way, I was happy to do. But but for the last several months, what have we been saying? We were against Midnight Hammer because of the escalatory spiral. And just because it took another six months or whatever to get to this part of the escalatory spiral, it's not invalidating of the point that everybody made at the time, which is that this is what happens. You keep moving the goalposts and moving the goalposts and moving the goalposts. And it's much easier to start a war than it is to end a war.

43:51Emily Jashinsky:Everybody knows that. And Trump, I think what we're seeing is his branding exercise of him now trying to define what victory looks like while also publicly doing his art of the deal negotiation by saying it's, you know, we could keep going. We don't want to. We're just about done. We've already won. But we could keep going. We could keep going. So what that actually looks like now, I think we just literally have no idea because I don't think he has any idea. And it's happening on a daily basis. Like what this definition is actually going to look like is shifting on a daily basis right now.

44:24Ryan Grim:Let me tell you one more thing that I am concerned about before I'm concerned about a nuclear weapon being deployed, which is there was a rabbi either during or immediately after the 12-day war who floated this idea of, hey, you know what I would have done? I would have ourselves, as an Israeli, bombed the Al-Aqsa Mosque and then blamed it on Iran and allowed all hell to break loose and, you know, then have the, you know, the different Muslim -led countries in the region fighting Iran as well. Well, and by the way, this gives us our chance to, you know, pursue our like our own end times direction and rebuild the temple there and whatever.

45:09Ryan Grim:And I think that is I don't think we can rule that out as a possibility. You know, the Israelis are already being accused of various false flag attacks in the region. There was a strike like a half mile away from Al-Aqsa. Exactly right. And that's that's why I'm nervous about it is because the Israelis were advertising that of. look at these Iranians, they struck so close to the Al-Aqsa Mosque, you know, isn't this Korean? You can only imagine what would happen. And so that is something else that I am concerned about as a possibility here is that Israel could, you know, themselves bomb the mosque, then blame Iran and, you know, create, open that Pandora's box, which would lead to, you know, another level of escalation and chaos, which is ultimately what the Israelis want.

45:56Ryan Grim:The Israelis are agents of chaos. They want chaos for the Iranians. They want chaos for all of the Gulf Arab states in the region. They want chaos for us because ultimately they, you know, Netanyahu went out and said, hey, this war is making us not just a global power, a regional power, it's making us a superpower, a global superpower. And guess who that comes at the expense of? That's about us. Because outside of Iran, and then, you know, they talk about wanting to go after Turkey next, the other challenge to them in the region is us, right? We're the other constraint on what they can do in the region.

46:31Ryan Grim:And they see the writing on the wall. They know the way the politics have changed. They know they're not going to get another president like Trump who lets them do whatever they want to do in the same way. That's not happening. That's not happening again. So in any case, I think it's important for people to understand when we talk about the goals and interest of the U.S. and Israel not being totally aligned in terms of the Iran war. In one of the ways that they're not aligned is that even though technically we're allies right now, ultimately, Israel would love to see us in our capacity, in the region and our ability to constrain them.

47:07Ryan Grim:They would love to see us degraded in that way as well.

47:10Krystal Ball:Yeah, which is it's wild to watch in real time, like the decline of the U.S. empire, In large part, you could say, you know, due to the war in Iraq and the war in Afghanistan, these decades long projects that we've wasted trillions of dollars on, destroyed our reputation on the world stage, etc. And now this this war with Iran, depending on how it goes, like this could be the final stage of American power projection in the region. This could be the destruction of the American empire, all in service of propping up the sort of Israeli empire in the Middle East. I mean, we're willingly sort of destroying our own power dynamics on behalf of a foreign country.

47:50Krystal Ball:It's just wild to see happen in real time.

47:52Ryan Grim:You know what it makes me think of is we all know that guy who is deeply insecure in his masculinity and he's taking testosterone. And don't talk about soccer when he's not. He's buying a big old pickup truck. And, you know, he's buying a Tesla, going to the gym.

48:17Ryan Grim:And, you know, it all comes from this place of insecurity and they, you know, act like a bully and they're lashing out and acting like the big tough guy on the block. I mean, that's the same thing as what declining empires. It's the same type of behavior and not just us, but if you look throughout history. And so it is a recorded historical fact that empires which are in decline become more violent, both externally and internally. And, yeah, I mean, Trump is a particular figure. Like, I think he is. I don't think if we have a different president, I don't think if Kamala Harris is president, I don't think we're in this war right now.

48:48Ryan Grim:So he has a lot to do with what's going on. But also, if you just zoom out from him as a character here and look at the historical trends, it is not surprising that we're lashing out at the world in these ways, desperately trying to prove that we're still the tough guy on the block, desperately trying to project that power and to save face. And I think that that impetus to like to save face at all costs, it seems ridiculous and it seems like it comes just out of Trump's particular like narcissism and ego as well. but it also is essential to the empire because the moment that you puncture the illusion that we are all powerful, that we can do whatever we want, wherever we want, whenever we want, to whoever we want, the moment that illusion collapses, that is the moment that the empire actually ends.

49:45Ryan Grim:And so to your point, Mac, about how this could actually end the American empire, that would be the reason why. Because the people we've been pushing around all around the world will look at this and go, you know what? They're not so tough. Like, they're not so invincible. And maybe if we, you know, collectively get together, like, we don't need to take all of this bullying and this obnoxious behavior from them. They, you know, they are a paper tiger. And we can make our own moves and make our own decisions in the world without always having to, you know, having to bend to their will.

50:21Emily Jashinsky:Well, the power of the military and the power of the dollar, I think we have a Besant clip on oil, Mac, to get to, if I'm remembering correctly. But this is, to me, that's one of the big questions or question marks about what happens to the American empire, depending on how long this goes and what it looks like is what it does to the dollar. How the Trump administration ends when it comes to the dollar in the next couple of years, because that's obviously a critical component of the empire. It is tied to military power and military strength. Here is Treasury Secretary Scott Besant. This was just last night saying the president is taking decisive steps to promote stability in global energy markets and working to keep prices low as we address the threat and instability posed by the terrorist Iranian regime to increase the global reach of existing supply.

51:10Emily Jashinsky:Treasury is providing a temporary authorization to permit countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea. This narrowly tailored short term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction. President Trump's pro-energy policies have driven U.S. oil and gas production to record levels, contributing to lower fuel prices for hardworking Americans. The temporary increase in oil prices is a short-term and temporary disruption that will result in a massive benefit to our nation and economy in the long term.

51:48Emily Jashinsky:And hanging over that, obviously, is the Trump administration's moves in the crypto space. The Trump administration's move to potentially devalue the dollar. All kinds of stuff happening in the background of this exercise in Iran right now that leave things, also the trade war. But that just basically leave us in such I can't I mean, it feels like things have been unstable for years, at least since 9-11, of course, but and certainly since the dawn of nuclear weapons. But this is as shaky of an economy as I can remember Mac and Crystal.

52:23Krystal Ball:Well, and to your point earlier, Crystal, like in terms of the U.S. maintaining this facade that we can crush whoever we want, whenever and however we want. Like now you have this situation where we've been spending years trying to destroy the Russian economy in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine.

52:41Emily Jashinsky:We are still guiding targets on the Russian military in Ukraine right now as we speak.

52:48Krystal Ball:And so we failed to crush the Russian economy. They're still able at the bare minimum to continue the war going as they see fit. And now you have you've come full circle to where we're basically telling countries, OK, you can kind of skirt around the rules here a little bit, maybe buy a little bit of Russian oil in order to hold yourselves over as we do this completely unnecessary illegal war of aggression against Iran. So it's like on multiple different fronts over the course of the last couple of years, the U.S. empire has seen massive fractures that are being exposed within. And I think that's that's another example of it.

53:21Ryan Grim:Yeah. Well, and listen, like we well, first of all, it's funny for Besson now to be like, we're committed to keeping prices low when literally yesterday Trump put on a true social. It was like high oil prices are great for the U.S. I don't know what you people are complaining about. So but in any case, and there is speculation that potentially Charger is intervening directly in the markets to lower the price of oil, which I do think is a possibility. And look, we are, you know, net energy exporting country. There are additional levers that the Trump administration could use. They could actually say like, you know, there is a lever they could pull that says we're not exporting.

54:00Ryan Grim:This oil is only being used in the United States of America. And screw you, rest of the world. You know, now we've effectively cut off your supply of Middle Eastern oil. We've curtailed your ability to use Russian oil. Good luck. So there is no doubt that actually other countries, especially poor countries around the world, will be hurt more by this than U.S. consumers will be. But there's also no doubt that there will be severe pain here at a time when the economy is incredibly rickety, when people say have been saying for years that their highest priority is the economy when Trump ran on promises of affordability.

54:37Ryan Grim:And, you know, it's a it's a pretty grim. It's a pretty grim picture, especially when you consider how much our stock market is. I mean, our whole economy is just like a Ponzi scheme. You know, I mean, the whole stock markets build on this like theoretical AI boom that's really not proven in terms of its profitability that also, by the way, relies on access to cheap energy. So the whole thing is just.

55:01Krystal Ball:And also massive investments from the Gulf states.

55:04Ryan Grim:That's absolutely right as well. That's absolutely right as well.

55:07Emily Jashinsky:Which is before we move to premium. That's, I guess, an argument. If someone was here doing devil's advocate, that would be an argument for the empire that we continue to suck in the world with our financial schemes like the investment, the Middle Eastern investment in crypto and the like.

55:23Krystal Ball:But we'll see how long that lasts because they might be rethinking a lot of those investments now. So that's another angle there.

55:30Ryan Grim:Kushner, hardest hit.

55:31Krystal Ball:Do we want to move on here to the next story here, guys?

55:34Ryan Grim:Yeah, let's go ahead and shift gears to we've got Brad Lander standing by to talk to us about his campaign in a New York City congressional district. He's in a Democratic primary against Dan Goldman, who is significantly to his right, especially in questions, frankly, of war and peace, none of our relationship to Israel. So let's go ahead and get to that.

55:57Mac:This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

56:38Mac:Start your show today at Spreaker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. An ambitious, well-intentioned, ferocious, and wealthy mother looks like in the Black community. This Women's History Month, the podcast Keep It Positive, sweetie, celebrates the power of women choosing healing, purpose, and faith. even when life gets messy. Love is not a destination. You have to work on it every day. Keep It Positive, sweetie, creates space for honest conversations on self-worth, love, growth, and navigating life with grace and grit led by women who uplift, inspire, and tell the truth out loud.

57:15Mac:I have several conversations with God and I know why it took 20 years. To hear this and more, listen to Keep It Positive, sweetie on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. it's the new me and it's the old them everybody's on their journey and your journey is different to theirs this woman's history month the podcast if you knew better with amber grimes spotlights women who turn missteps into momentum and lessons into power i think coming out of where i came from i'm from the bronx i think i grew up really poor i didn't know that then because i very much use my creativity to romanticize life and i'm like my mom did a really good job of like you step back and you're like, whoa, we, I don't know how we made it.

57:59Mac:So a lot of my life was like built out of like survival to get to the next place. Like my drive, my like tunnel vision of like, I got to be better. I got to achieve this was off the strengths of like, I want to make a better life for us. If You Knew Better brings real talk from women who've lived it, unpacking career pivots, relationship lessons, and the mindset shifts that changed everything. Listen to If You New Better with Amber Grimes on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

58:31Ryan Grim:All right, everybody, we are fortunate to be joined this morning by Brad Lander. He, of course, is former New York City comptroller, former mayoral candidate, and current congressional candidate in New York City. Great to see you, sir.

58:42Brad Lander:Great to be on with you.

58:44Ryan Grim:I have a bunch of things we want to get to here. There's a lot going on in New York City, the country, and the world at large. First, I wanted to just get your reaction to the war of choice in Iran.

58:55Brad Lander:I mean, the fact that American taxpayer dollars are being used to light the Middle East on fire, that thousands of people are dead, including hundreds of kids at that school, including U.S. service members, that we've made millions of refugees, three quarters of a million in Lebanon, probably over 2 million in Iran, that we've shredded American credibility in the world and are doing irreparable damage to international law? And for what? You know, the American public is against it. Where is Congress being louder to stop it? Article 1 of the Constitution says Congress decides whether we declare war.

59:35Brad Lander:It is outrageous, and I'm outraged. And so your opponent, Representative Dan Goldman, he voted for the War Powers Resolution that would have restricted Trump's war.

59:47Saagar Enjeti:All but four Democrats in the House and one in the Senate voted for that. But there's been a very long and wide kind of spectrum about how people are talking about the war. Some lead with, well, we understand Iran can't have a nuclear weapon and cite a lot of justifications for it and then say, but, you know, I don't trust Trump to wage this. Others have just said the war needs to end today. It was illegal to begin with. Where are you on that spectrum? And what would you describe as the difference between you and your opponent on your approach to it?

1:00:21Brad Lander:Yeah, I mean, the war needs to end today. We shouldn't spend any more money on it. And I am opposed to it. I mean, of course, the Iranian regime has repressed and killed its own people. Of course, there needs to be attention to making sure that they don't get a nuclear weapon. But we know from our own Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that they weren't getting closer and that this was simply a war of choice. I mean, Marco Rubio said out loud that Netanyahu essentially baited Trump into this war. I've been real loud about it. My opponent voted for the War Powers Resolution but has not been loud about it.

1:01:04Brad Lander:and supporters of my opponent. I mean, he gets a lot of funding from APAC donors. APAC is cheerleading this war. So I think there's a pretty strong distinction. Right.

1:01:21Saagar Enjeti:If we can talk for a moment about the attack on the synagogue in Michigan yesterday, what was your, and also there was another attack in Virginia. What was your immediate reaction? What's your reaction as you've learned more about what is what happened?

1:01:40Emily Jashinsky:We can add that this is all on the heels of what happened outside Gracie Mansion, obviously. Last week, there was immediately after the war began, Austin, Texas saw an act of apparently terrorism. So it does seem like these events are popping up in some frequency just over the last the first two weeks of this war.

1:02:03Brad Lander:in West Bloomfield, was a cabin counselor with me at a Jewish summer camp outside of Indianapolis in the summer of 1987 after I graduated from high school. Josh Bennett's his name. And actually, his older brother was my rabbi and still is my parents' rabbi in St. Louis. So the stuff is hitting pretty close to home. So my first reaction yesterday was like, shit, that's my friend in that synagogue. And, you know, thankfully, very quickly, you know, that incident was resolved, thanks to the first responders and mostly what was going on in that synagogue at that time was preschool. And people shouldn't be afraid to go pray or send their kids to preschool in synagogues or any other house of worship.

1:02:47Brad Lander:Anti-Semitism is on the rise. And we have to call it out and work together to say it'll never be normal. It's got to be safe. What are the local strategies people are taking? And it is also true that in the wake of war, violence gets more common. That never makes it okay. Not okay for ISIS-inspired terrorists to throw, you know, incendiary devices near Gracie Mansion. Not okay for someone to drive a vehicle into a synagogue and then try to start shooting it up. Not okay for Tommy Tuberville and Randy Fine to go on Islamophobic rants on social media. You know, the responsibility if you value human life and you care about people is to tone down rhetoric, to try to normalize understanding, to condemn acts of hate.

1:03:44Brad Lander:But one more consequence of launching a reckless and illegal war in addition to all the damage that it's doing to millions of people there is that it has this sort of diffuse effect of spreading and normalizing violence more broadly. So some responsibilities on the hands of the people who started it.

1:04:06Ryan Grim:I was just going to I have this quote from you reacting to Tommy Tuberville, who is a senator. saying the enemy is inside the gates and posting pictures of 9-11 alongside Mayor Mom Donnie. And you reacted to this pretty strongly. He said, I can't even find the words to express how repugnant and despicable this post is. People who spew such Islamophobic file don't belong in the United States Congress. Job of elected officials to combat hate, not fan its flame. Shame on Senator Tuberville. Keep New York City out of your bigoted mouth. This Jewish New Yorker is proud. We elected our first Muslim mayor.

1:04:43Ryan Grim:We've seen similar comments from Randy Fine, a distressingly large number of Republicans when confronted with these sorts of comments. Republican elected officials, I should clarify, unable to fully say that, you know, that this is bigotry and call it out directly. Here's Congressman Randy Fine saying we need more Islamophobia, not less. Fear of Islam is rational. So, first of all, just your reaction to the extremely overtly bigoted nature of these comments. And also, I'm wondering, you know, if this is if you're experiencing this in New York City, this rise in overt Islamophobia or if this is more of a national politician direction.

1:05:27Brad Lander:Sadly, it's right here in New York City as well. We've got a city council member, Vicky Palladino, whose comments are right up there with Randy Fine and Tommy Tuberville. And, you know, the normalizing, like to say is we need more Islamophobia. I mean, it is true on the one hand that there have been more anti-Semitic incidents and hate crimes than Islamophobic ones over the last, you know, couple of years. But no one is saying anti-Semitism is OK. How do we combat it? What do we do about it? How do we confront it? What is it? Who's responsible for it? What's its definition? All of those are debates and questions.

1:06:06Brad Lander:But no one, I've heard one person say it's acceptable. It's all right. Hatred of Jews is rational. You know, we at least have a consensus that we're against Jew hatred. We're against anti-Semitism and we're going to work to stop it. And lo and behold, senators and Congress members and council members of Republicans are here saying we're going to fan the flames of hatred of Muslims in a city that, you know, got about a million and a half Jews. We've got about a million Muslims. We have our first Muslim mayor. And yes, I am proud as a Jewish New Yorker to have supported him and that we elected our first Muslim mayor.

1:06:45Brad Lander:That's what this city is, is a place that welcomes people from all over the world and takes people with different religious and faith traditions and makes us into New Yorkers. That's what's supposed to be true about America as well. That's why we have to work harder to defeat Donald Trump. This blood and soil conservatism that is being, in this case, weaponized against our Muslim neighbors during Ramadan is really frightening. And it unfortunately is likely to lead to they're just doing it on Twitter with words. But we know how this works. Someone is going to be inspired by those words to do something violent.

1:07:24Brad Lander:And we've got work to do not to let it happen.

1:07:28Emily Jashinsky:Lawmakers in New York have a challenge on their hands. I have referenced your post about Gracie Manchin a couple of times this week. I thought it was really the right thing to do. And it was so well said. you, after saying vile displays of Islamophobia will never be tolerated in our city, you then followed up and said, I'm sorry for jumping to conclusions and posting too soon, but I'm not sorry for hating Islamophobia as much as I hate anti-Semitism. And I just wanted to ask, I mean, there are already cameras, NYPD cameras, that have been surveilling New Yorkers, much to the anger of civil liberties advocates in the city for a long time.

1:08:04Emily Jashinsky:But people don't exactly feel safe right now with good reason. There are crazy things happening all around the country. How are we balancing or how do you think about balancing those civil liberty concerns with also the very real fears that people have of radical extremists taking measures into their own hands, throwing explosive devices on the Upper East Side? How do you think about those?

1:08:29Brad Lander:Well, these lines are pretty straightforward. I think sometimes people try to fudge them. It's permissible to protest and say things and say hateful things. Like I am for the freedom of those Islamophobic protesters who were outside Gracie Mansion to be able to say vile, despicable, bigoted things. And I'm for Tommy Tuberville and Randy Fiennes' rights to say despicable, vile, hateful things on Twitter and stand for office doing so, I'm going to say I find them vieted and hateful and despicable and that we're going to work hard not to elect them. And counter-protesters calling it vile and hateful and pointing out the Islamophobia also is important.

1:09:16Brad Lander:And generally, I will say the NYPD, in my experience in this work, do a decent job, do a pretty good job of separating protesters and saying, here's a place where you can protest and here's a place where you can counter protest. And the line was crossed when people threw explosive devices. That's when it moves from speech to violence. And in that case, also, I mean, the video of those NYPD officers running toward the devices to keep people safe like that is what we want from law enforcement. It's a dangerous job to keep people safe from violence, because even the Islamophobes should not be exposed to bombs or violence.

1:09:56Brad Lander:I mean, the mayor shouldn't and the counter protesters shouldn't. So that line, I think, is straightforward. And we have a responsibility to like make those distinctions. That's free speech. You've got a right to say it. You shouldn't face violence for it. I hate it. I find it despicable. I'm going to make work to do everything I can to make sure you're not in office. And violence by people who are saying things, whether I agree or disagree with them, is never acceptable. And there have to be consequences. for it.

1:10:25Krystal Ball:So one more question on this before we move on to the Hocul thing. With the broader context of obviously the ongoing genocide in Gaza, the Israeli invasion of Lebanon now, the war in Iran, obviously, what do you think the role of AIPAC is going to play or the Israel lobby broadly in your election, in your district specifically? Do you think there could be some element of, you know, getting support from the Israel lobby could backfire or could be seen as negative? Where do you think that's going to play out?

1:10:52Brad Lander:Look, AIPAC knows that its support is being viewed negatively. And that's why in all these Illinois races, they're not spending money saying, here's our point of view. And it's opposed to this candidate's point of view. They're just throwing trash and dirt and whatever they can dig up at the candidates whose point of view on Israel and Palestine they oppose. So that's their playbook right now. I mean, And I suspect they'll do it here as well. You know, Dan Goldman, my opponent, is heavily supported by APAC. And I assume, therefore, there already is Super PAC spending, you know, for him and against me in this race.

1:11:30Brad Lander:And I imagine there'll be a lot more of it. And, yeah, I mean, I think, you know, as a Jewish New Yorker who, like, is really proud of it, you know, is really clear about it, I think they like even less someone that says it's time to end unconditional U.S. support for genocide. And what I believe, though, is that the residents of New York's 10th congressional district feel that way as well. And they've seen the playbook, too, and they know me. And, you know, I'm optimistic that that spending will not change the opportunity to have a real dialogue. But I wish we could do more about it. I mean, let me be clear.

1:12:13Brad Lander:I passed here in New York something called the Independent Expenditure Disclosure Act, boldest local law in the country. So if you do an independent expenditure in New York City elections, the top three individual donors have to sign their name on the lit piece or on the ad. That's as far as you can go under Citizens United. But Congress could pass a law not waiting for Citizens United to require Super PAC spending be disclosed, not just generically on a website, but on the lit or on the ads. And then maybe people would be less likely to throw millions of dollars after, you know, such scurrilous advertising.

1:12:50Saagar Enjeti:I did one last one last question on this theme before it moved to Hochul and taxes. In case people missed it, yesterday we reported that the name of the driver who drove his truck into the synagogue was Eamon Gazela. And it turns out, and I want to get your sense and your reaction to this, because this is difficult stuff to even talk about and contextualize because it feels like you're justifying. But of course, we're all adults and we understand that explanations or motives are not necessarily justifications for violence. But we learned that Gazela's family in Lebanon, four members of them were killed in an airstrike last week.

1:13:39Saagar Enjeti:His little niece, little nephew, Ali and Fatima, and then two of his brothers, Qasim and Ibrahim. and he posted on his WhatsApp stories overnight their pictures. And then the next thing we know, the next day he attacks this synagogue. You know, how did you respond? I assume you saw that reporting. How did you think through that?

1:14:07Brad Lander:Yeah, I mean, thank you for the reporting, however awful and horrific and challenging it is to think through. Look, violence doesn't justify violence in response. War crimes, you know, are not an excuse for a next war crime, you know, and targeting civilians doesn't isn't a justification for acts of violence or harming other people's children. Obviously, the people of West Bloomfield, Michigan and Temple Israel are not responsible for the deaths of his family members or other kids in Lebanon. And blaming Jews generically for the actions of Israel is a form of anti-Semitism. So all those things are true.

1:14:51Brad Lander:And also, violence begets violence. Like when people's families are killed, they're enraged and they lose their ability in some cases to think rationally. And you lower the bar on horrible things that people do. So I don't think I mean, yeah, I guess it's a nuance, but it is the case that when Israel is at war, there are more acts of anti-Semitic violence against Jews around the world. world. That doesn't justify them, but it is a fact. And this in particular, this reckless war of choice when there was not an immediate threat to anyone's safety. You know, I guess I think like that's maybe the way to say it here.

1:15:39Brad Lander:There was not, you know, they're not on the cusp of getting nuclear weapons. They weren't about to launch a war or strikes. They were not immediately threatening anyone with harm. And what Trump and Netanyahu have done is launched a war that's killed thousands of people. This made millions of people refugees. I guess I do want to underline this as well. They have a right wing politics based on fear of refugees. And they've just made several million people refugees in a way that's going to reverberate. We might not feel that. That'll be felt in Europe more than here, that people fleeing Lebanon and Iran and war start moving throughout the world.

1:16:19Brad Lander:But the consequences of escalating violence are bad for everyone. Like this war is bad for everyone. It's bad for the people of Iran who were bravely protesting for their freedom just a few short weeks ago. They're not closer, doesn't look to me like, to freedom or stability. And many more are refugees and many more are dead. It's bad for the people of Lebanon. It's bad for Muslims here. It's bad for Jews here. I don't know who it's good for. Yeah.

1:16:49Ryan Grim:If I could just add one thing to that, I think you're right when you say that, you know, you particularly drive entities like AIPAC crazy as a proud Jew and also someone who criticizes Israel. Because groups like AIPAC and ADL all the way up to Benjamin Netanyahu himself love to conflate all Jews with the state of Israel. And I think what you also see in, you know, neo-Nazis, by the way, do the same thing. the Nick Fuentes of the world love to make that conflation as well. And I think what you see also with this attack is the way that that puts Jews at risk. Because if you're saying we're all responsible, we're all in on this horrific genocide and these horrific atrocities that are being committed, and you create this sort of collective responsibility, and again, this is coming from groups like the ADL, AIPAC, Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as the far-right neo-Nazis like Fuentes.

1:17:41Ryan Grim:When you create that perception, then yes, that is going to create more danger and more risk for all sorts of Jewish people.

1:17:52Saagar Enjeti:Agreed. So, Kathy Hochul, Mac, do you have the Kathy Hochul? So, Kathy Hochul spoke yesterday. Brad, you could do a better job of, I think, setting the stage here, but effectively, New York City has a, and you're the former comptroller, and nobody knows is better than you, has a balanced budget amendment, which means you have to either have enough revenue to cover spending or you have to cut spending to match that. Or you can raise revenue if you're going to match the spending. And so Zoran Mamdani ran with your loud support on a very clear platform of covering that gap by taxing the rich. But the state has the power to allow him to do that.

1:18:38As I understand it, the state Senate and state assembly have both now passed bills that would raise taxes that would allow for the raising of taxes on the super wealthy.

1:18:46Saagar Enjeti:They're slightly different. So they have to be conferenced. But in principle, the state legislature now. So you have voters of New York City agreeing that we need to tax the rich. You have the state legislature agreeing that you need to tax the rich. You've had Hochul saying we're not going to do that. You've had the New York City president saying New York City council president saying we're not going to do that, which then pushes things over to property tax increases instead, which Mom Donnie has said, I don't want to do that. So she ends up, Julie, what's her name? Julie Minin? Minin? Minin.

1:19:15Saagar Enjeti:Yeah, so she's pushing for cuts instead. Hochul, though, this seems like the first break that we've seen from Hochul, potential opening to raise taxes. Let's play this clip and then we'll get your response to it.

1:19:30Mac:I philosophically don't have a problem. It is like I have to look at the fact that we are in competition with other states who have less of a tax burden on their corporations and their individuals. The Progressive Working Families Party.

1:19:43Saagar Enjeti:Yeah. So she said, I philosophically don't have a problem with raising taxes on the wealthy. That is is that a is that a new is that is that hopeful for the Mamdani camp there?

1:19:53Brad Lander:It is. I agree. That's the first time that I have heard Governor Hochul say something that indicates room for compromise with the legislature here. And look, there's a lot of choices. You know, a great the state Senate finance chair, Liz Kruger, was on the Senate floor a day before yesterday pointing out one of the things they proposed is just eliminating a tax break on gold bullion. It turns out that if you hold gold bullion as a form of wealth in your basement or, I don't know, in your bank in New York, you get a tax break that was implemented a couple of decades ago. And just a state on the books,$600 million is what the state is giving up every year by a tax break on gold bullion.

1:20:32Brad Lander:So, like, that's not even, you know, an additional tax on ultra millionaires or an increase in the corporate tax. There's, you know, Americans know that the ultra wealthy have found lots of loopholes and ways of shielding themselves from fair taxation. And it's overwhelmingly popular. And I think the fact that Governor Hochul sees that the state Senate and the Assembly have put these things in their bills and that we want to be able to expand child care without cutting our schools or maintenance in our parks is is what we need to do. And yes, she's right that other governors are also going to face this choice in a world where, you know, Donald Trump is, you know, is as a result of sort of the inflationary pressures of the tariffs as a result of so many cuts to federal policies.

1:21:23Brad Lander:You know, New York state is currently picking up food stamp costs that were being borne by the federal government and the city and state together trying to deal with some big housing voucher cuts that Trump made. So this is a choice that governors and legislatures are going to be facing. And the right answer is to modestly increase taxes on the wealthiest folks. And that's what Albany has the choice to do over the next couple of weeks. Modest increases, getting rid of that gold bullion tax, a modest increase in the corporate tax, a modest increase on New Yorkers who make over$25 million a year, who love New York City.

1:22:01Brad Lander:They're not going to leave it as a result of a modest tax increase. We actually aren't talking about, I mean, billions of dollars is a significant amount of money. But what's necessary here to close the budget gap for New York City and to allow us to get toward universal child care without big cuts is a modest increase on the wealthiest New Yorkers. And I hope that, you know, Governor Hochul's comments yesterday indicate a willingness to reach a deal with the legislature to get there.

1:22:29Ryan Grim:Listen, I used to make fun of the gold bugs, but I've been thinking lately maybe I need to acquire some gold bullion given the stability of the world right now. So I need to check here in Virginia if we've got any similar tax breaks on the books. One more thing from me in any case. I wanted to get your reaction. Former Governor Cuomo had some thoughts on you, Brad, and so I wanted to get your reaction to this. You and also Zoran, of course. So let's take a listen.

1:22:54Mac:Now, look, there is no truth anymore. There is no accountability anymore. What Zoran knows is you say whatever is convenient to say. Just put it out there on social media. Of course, it's not true. He was shocked and surprised that there's a$12 billion budget. Mayor Adams lied. Everybody lied. Yeah, it turns out he's the liar. Brad Lander, I don't think he's got a genuine bone in his body. He's a pandering politician. The Democrat, far lefty, he wanted to patronize the far left and show that he was with them in his anti-Israel views. That's all it is. Pandering. Pure pandering.

1:23:45Ryan Grim:This man is really one to talk about accountability. In any case, he's in his Rush Limbaugh era. Let him let him cook. Yeah, there you go. In any case, Brad, are you are you patronizing me right now?

1:23:57Brad Lander:What I responded with, I mean, first, a fair second. I mean, Andrew Cuomo is a master of projection. Obviously, he's never had a seriously held position other than whatever benefits Andrew Cuomo. And he can't stand and understand anyone else believing the things they say. I think that's pretty straightforward. I responded with some letters I had written to my hometown Jewish newspaper in 1990 when I was a junior in college, when I expressed more or less the same point of view on Israel and Palestine that I have today. That newspaper had published some political cartoons making Palestinians look like rats.

1:24:32Brad Lander:And I wrote the editor, who had been my teacher in Sunday school, and said, please don't do this. Like, we have to find a way to mutual, you know, recognition and peace. And, you know, I linked it on my Twitter. If people want to go read the back and forth, you can. But what I responded with is, yes, I started my long con of faking my positions on Israel when I was 20 years old in 1990, just for the purpose of trolling and defeating Andrew Cuomo. Diabolical. Every minute was worth it. It's 5D chess.

1:25:06Ryan Grim:All right. Well, I'm sure you have a lot to get to today. And we're really grateful for your time. Brad, if you can let people know where they can go to find out more about your campaign or support it if they are so inclined.

1:25:17Brad Lander:Thank you so much, Brad Lander for Congress dot com. We've got canvases every day. We're building something really powerful together. Please come join us.

1:25:26Ryan Grim:Amazing. Thanks. Great to see you.

1:25:28Brad Lander:Thank you all.

1:25:29Ryan Grim:All right, guys. So that was Brad Lander. And we have a lot more that we want to get to in the premium portion. In particular, tech bros just being the most insane, diabolical, disturbing people you can possibly imagine. And also an update on those IDF soldiers who were caught on camera gang raping a Palestinian detainee. Now the charges against them have been dropped. So we'll discuss what's going on with that as well. If you want access to the premium show, guess what, guys? The month free trial is still going on through Sunday. What is it? BP Free 26. That's right. We want to free the BP 26.

1:26:10Ryan Grim:We don't know who they are, but we know they need to be.

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