3/14/26: BREAKING: TRUMP ATTACKS OIL ISLAND, MARINES CALLED IN, 5 US PLANES HIT

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1:49Krystal Ball:Good morning, everybody. Had some significant developments in the war in Iran that I did not want to wait to bring to you until Monday. So let's go ahead and get to it. The most significant of those updates is this from President Trump. He posted this on True Social yesterday. Moments ago at My Direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the history of the Middle East and totally obliterated every military target in Iran's crown jewel, Karg Island. Our weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated the world has ever known, but for reasons of decency, I've chosen not to wipe out the oil infrastructure on the island.

2:29Krystal Ball:However, should Iran or anyone else do anything to interfere with the free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision during my first term. And currently, I rebuild our military into the most lethal, powerful, and effective force by far anywhere in the world. Iran has no ability to defend anything that we want to attack. There is nothing they can do about it. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States of America, the Middle East, or for that matter, the world. Iran's military and all others involved with this terrorist regime would be wise to lay down their arms and save what's left of their country, which isn't much.

3:07Krystal Ball:Thank you for your attention to this matter. So a bunch of things to call your attention to here that are significant. So first of all, I'll tell you a little bit more about Karg Island in a moment, but it is incredibly important to Iran's oil exports. About 90 percent of their oil exports leave from that island. And so there's significant capacity there. Obviously, that's important. You'll note, though, that Trump specifically says that he did not target the oil infrastructure, only the military infrastructure. And we do have confirmation of that at this point. In fact, you know, people who track such things say already they've been able to load more oil from Karg Island.

3:49Krystal Ball:The Iranian government also says that the oil infrastructure was not impacted and they are continuing to operate. So that's number one. Number two, he says that while he's only targeting the military infrastructure on Karg Island right now, that if Iran continues to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and control the Strait of Hormuz and not allow any tankers from the U.S. and Israel in particular, our allies, through the strait, that then he would consider targeting the oil infrastructure. Now, as you guys know, we already have a significant oil crisis. Oil prices have shot up. They shot up at one point to$120 a barrel.

4:33Krystal Ball:They have now come back down. Now they're hovering right around$100 a barrel. The oil market is a global market. So even as, you know, the entity that would be hurt the most if Karg Island's capacity was removed from the system would be Iran, The entire global market would suffer, and that would have implications for the U.S., and it would have massive implications for countries around the world. The U.S. is somewhat insulated because of being a net energy exporter. But again, we are also integrated into that world economy. So if you're taking those millions of barrels of oil off the market coming from Karg Island, you're going to have some sort of price shock.

5:17Krystal Ball:So this is no doubt a significant escalatory step here from President Trump. And let me go ahead and share with you a little bit more information about Karg Island so you can see, you know, some of the import here. This is from The Wall Street Journal. It just has some facts about this. Why did Trump order an attack on Iran's Karg Island? As I said before, the tiny spot of land in the northern Persian Gulf is the launch point for 90 percent of the country's oil exports. Trump said he spared oil facilities in the bombardment, which went after military targets only, but warned that he would reconsider that decision if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz.

5:58Krystal Ball:The U.S. military said it targeted more than 90 military targets, including mine and missile storage sites and shared video of a strike on a runway. way. In addition, it reiterates what I was saying about how the island is not actually shut down in terms of oil. They attack the army. Jetting and storages are OK, said a board member at the Iranian Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Product Exporters Union. What would the attacks on CARG mean for oil prices? It says so far the attacks went after military targets only if the island's oil infrastructure is damaged that could force Iran to cut production at its oil fields potentially taking another 1 million barrels of production away from global markets that would be in addition to cuts implemented by Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

6:41Krystal Ball:So they're saying the oil industry is already impacted by this war, by attacks that have been ongoing, and now this would further reduce that if the oil infrastructure was hit. So that is some additional details there. I wanted to provide you with this analysis from Professor Robert Pape, who we had on the show last week. And I know a lot of people have been very interested in what he has to say. He's been talking about how Trump is trapped in he's in this escalation trap. And this would be a perfect emblem of that escalation trap, because here Trump is once again taking it to the next level, even though Iran continues to be able to respond and continues to be able to up the ante.

7:27Krystal Ball:So what Professor Pape says here is seizing cargo would block Iran oil exports, but means more oil off the global market, further increasing oil prices and inflation on U.S. consumers. It will not prevent Iran's drone from hitting tankers. Escalation continues to favor Iran and its long war strategy. So what has Iran done seemingly in response here? We've already got some indications of the direction they're going to go in, in particular. And this is very predictable given the attack on Karg Island. Brian Krasenstein says here, breaking in retaliation the Karg Island attack. Iranian drones have just hit oil facilities at Fajera port in the UAE.

8:07Krystal Ball:This is a very large and significant oil depot. He says, I'd be shocked if gas isn't$4 next week. I can't opine on exactly what the impact will be on the markets or on gas prices at the pump. But this is the logic of escalation. So Karg Island is hit. So what does Iran do in response? They hit oil infrastructure in the region. They up the ante. So now and they are showing no indication that they're going to open up the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, in kind of a brilliant, almost troll, they said, oh, we'll allow some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as long as it is not denominated in dollars, but in Chinese one.

8:51Krystal Ball:So, you know, trying to undermine the status of the dollar in the world, trying to use whatever asymmetric tools that they have here in order to squeeze the U.S., not just militarily, but from an economic perspective. And I think they really see that as being at the forefront of their strategy. Rory Johnston, who we also had on the show, who's an oil market analyst, says that Iranian tankers are already back to loading at Karg this morning despite yesterday's U.S. strikes on the island, which currently stages the vast majority of Iranian exports. So that, again, underscores that the oil infrastructure was not actually hit.

9:28Krystal Ball:That threat remains. It's also worth noting here that Trump intentionally made this move after markets closed, of course, because he wants the weekend for things to potentially shake out and lessen the blow of whatever is going to happen in our stock markets and with oil futures as well. I think that was a very intentional choice because he knows it's going to be incredibly – it's going to be very chaotic. It's going to cause even more turmoil than we've seen thus far. And we're just beginning to see the way that Iran is going to respond and the way that they're going to retaliate. But that is not the only piece of significant news that I wanted to bring you guys.

10:13Krystal Ball:This is also incredibly, incredibly important and significant. Five Air Force refueling planes were hit in an Iranian strike on Saudi Arabia. They were damaged on the ground at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, according to two U.S. officials. They were hit during an Iranian missile strike on the Saudi base in recent days. CENTCOM declined to comment. Tankers were damaged but not fully destroyed and are being repaired. One of the officials said no one was killed in the strike. So this comes on top of that very strange incident that we told you about where an air tanker, this same type of air tanker, had some sort of accident involving another U.S.

10:56Krystal Ball:plane. The other plane was able to land safely. That tanker crashed. We now know all six crew members that were on board were killed. We were told by the government that this was not friendly fire and it also was not Iranian fire. It was some sort of accident. There is an Iraqi militia, Iranian aligned Iraqi militia that is claiming credit. So we have no idea really what happened there. But in any case, we do know that now we have seven of these refueling tankers that are at least currently out of commission. That seems to be a strategic choice from the Iranians. You can't fly these longer-range missions without having access to these refueling tankers, so it limits what you're able to do.

11:42So in the same way that they have targeted the radar and the THAAD battery systems, the Patriot missile systems, they also seem to have targeted these tankers unless this was just happened to be what was convenient or available for them to be able to strike.

11:57Krystal Ball:But obviously very interesting and very significant that you have the Iranians still able to conduct those sorts of strikes and exact that kind of damage on the United States military. Going back to the escalation front, this was some additional news that was breaking while we were doing the Friday show and we weren't able to get it in. But obviously this is incredibly, incredibly noteworthy. And more Marines and warships head to the Middle East as Hormuz mission intensifies. The Pentagon is also weighing sending more destroyers to escort tankers. Pentagon is moving additional Marines and warships in the Middle East as Iran steps up its attack.

12:36Krystal Ball:And the U.S. prepares to escort tankers through the waterway. Now, the military analysts that I've seen have said that that would be an impossible mission, that it would be far too dangerous unless you actively occupy the coastline. They're in Iran. So, you know, overt ground invasion in order to be able to protect that space, because otherwise, if you just have your tanker, if you're just escorting these tankers through, then you and the tankers are both going to be sitting ducks for Iranian attacks. So that's why, you know, when you see now, OK, they're sending these Marines from this amphibious ready group and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East, you have to ask the question, what are they preparing for?

13:27Krystal Ball:So this is, I think, some 2 ,500 Marines that are being sent in. They say the Amphibious Ready Group is a fast response unit used to conduct sea-based amphibious assaults, humanitarian aid missions, and special operations. The group's Embarked Marine Expeditionary Unit includes more than 2 ,000 Marines. In addition to the Marine unit, the Pentagon is also weighing CENTCOM's request for two additional destroyers to help escort commercial ships through the strait, one of the officials said. And there's been a lot of speculation, including from myself, that they are going to inevitably end up with boots on the ground in Iran, some sort of invasion, because that is the logic of the escalation trap that Trump finds himself now in.

14:13Krystal Ball:because you have to accomplish some sort of goal to even declare mission accomplished, you know, and try to claim that this has all been some grand success. But even if you do that, the Iranian strategy is we need to make these people pay a severe price so that we don't find ourselves back here again in another six months or in another year. There needs to be enough pain that the U.S. and Israel think better of coming back and doing this to us again. So even if Trump at this point says, oh, I destroyed their military assets on Kargisland. I destroyed their missile launchers or whatever thing he wants to go.

14:50Krystal Ball:I killed the Ayatollah and I did all these amazing military feats and we're good. They've been degraded, et cetera, and tried to walk away. it would be illogical for the Iranians to walk away. And all the signals that they have sent is that they have no interest in doing so at this point. Now, I could be wrong. Many other people who are saying the same thing, who know a lot more about it than I do, could also be wrong. But it seems on its face to be fundamentally irrational for the Iranians to accept the U.S. declaring mission accomplished and walking away and to cease their attacks on their side.

15:29Krystal Ball:So that is the logic of the escalation trap. So if the Iranians are going to keep going, the U.S. is also going to keep going. The U.S. as the empire and the hegemon, and Trump in particular, given his narcissistic personality, you cannot lose face in this. It cannot be seen that you are retreating, cannot be seen that, you know, you're giving in to the Iranians. And so that means they continue up the escalation ladder, which is why I find it incredibly likely that we are going to end up with ground forces. And it seems very possible that this these marine units, which are being sent in, are the first step in that direction.

16:08Krystal Ball:There are a lot of rumblings coming from, you know, people of sources within the Pentagon and within this administration that things are headed in that direction. So we'll see. I did also see people saying online, I haven't double checked whether this is the case or not, but that this was also the way that the invasion in Vietnam began, the first boots on the ground with a similar deployment of a very similar type of marine force. So I guess history rhymes, especially when you have idiots who seem very interested in repeating the worst mistakes of the past. Let me just I've got two more things here that I really wanted to bring you guys today.

16:46Krystal Ball:This was quite extraordinary comments from David Sachs, who is in the administration. He is also a podcast host over at the All In podcast. He is the White House crypto czar. And he is really sounding the alarm here about the way that the Iran war could turn catastrophic and even raising the possibility that Israel could launch a nuclear weapon. Let me go ahead and play these comments for you.

17:18Saagar Enjeti:You also have to, I think, consider the impacts on Israel. I mean, it's hard to know exactly how much damage Israel is taking right now. There's a social media blackout. But what you're starting to hear trickle out is that Israel is getting hit harder than they've ever been hit before in their history. And we're only two weeks into this. If this war continues for weeks or months, then Israel could just be destroyed. There are very large parts of it. Now, I think Israel is a harder target than the Gulf states. Their infrastructure is more hardened. Also, they're further away. The Gulf states are vulnerable to drones and short-range missiles, whereas Israel is mainly vulnerable to long-range missiles.

17:58Saagar Enjeti:Nonetheless, at some point, their air defenses could become exhausted if it hasn't happened already, and Israel could get seriously destroyed. And then you have to worry about Israel escalating the war by contemplating using a nuclear weapon, which would truly be catastrophic. So there's a lot of scenarios here, a lot of really frightening scenarios about where escalation could lead. And even though the United States is a much more powerful country than Iran, they essentially have a dead man's switch over the economic fate of the Gulf states and even potentially beyond that, the habitability of some of these countries.

18:37Saagar Enjeti:So I do tend to think that this is a good time to declare victory. I think, Brad, you're right that the president has never said that democracy promotion is one of his objectives. Yes, J. Cal, obviously everyone would welcome if the people rose up and chose a new regime, but that's not something that we've said we have to accomplish.

18:58Krystal Ball:So really quite significant comments there coming from a Trump administration insider. I mean, just think about this. This is not someone in the Pentagon, right? But this is someone who was part of the Trump administration. And he's saying this could be catastrophic. He's saying that the Iranians have a, can basically kill the Gulf economies altogether if they want, that Israel is somewhat more hardened, but that they are also extremely vulnerable here as well if their defensive capabilities are exhausted. And that's an allusion to the, you know, the issue of the interceptors, which are being fired off at a rapid pace right now.

19:34Krystal Ball:And the Iranians, meanwhile, have, you know, continue to have more missiles in reserve and continue to have vast, almost, I think, inexhaustible troves of these Shahid drones, which they not only have stockpiled, which are very inexpensive to produce. And I, you know, I don't know whether the U.S. has been able to degrade their capacity to produce those drones. There's no indication that they have. And you're talking about I've seen estimates everywhere from those drones cost only seven thousand dollars to produce all the way up to, you know, something like fifty thousand dollars. In any case, in military terms, that is absolutely nothing.

20:11Krystal Ball:They're extremely cheap, given the amount of damage that they're able to inflict. And meanwhile, you're sending these, you know, million dollar interceptors at, you know, routinely at these sorts of these sorts of challenges from Iran. So in any case, you've got him saying, yeah, they could kill the Gulf economies. They could ultimately inflict a lot of damage on Israel and that Israel, if they get back into a corner like that, may well deploy a nuclear weapon and then all hell will break loose. So he's urging President Trump to declare mission accomplished. Look, he says, you've never talked about democracy promotion.

20:52Krystal Ball:We don't need a democracy. Like, let's just say we did a great job. Congratulations, everybody, and try to walk away. Of course, the problem with that is the question I raised earlier of, would Iran agree? Would they also walk away? Would they say we're done? I think that seems very unlikely. The other angle that's important here with regard to David Sachs, I said he's, you know, he's crypto czar. He's obviously heavily, like, involved and invested in AI development. These are his spheres of expertise. And AI development is also gravely threatened by, which not something that I have in mind in particular, but in any case, this will be something that's top of mind for him, gravely threatened by these developments, both because these data centers and the, you know, the AI growth is predicated on on energy prices staying comparatively low.

21:42Krystal Ball:And then in addition, you have massive data centers in the Gulf Arab states. This has been a major push from them. SACS, I think, has been involved in touting some of these deals and how significant they are for AI development. The Iranians have named these tech companies as direct targets. I know at least one, maybe two data centers have already been hit either intentionally or by debris and caused damage. So that's a problem. You also have a lot of investments coming from these Gulf Arab states, which is what we talked about before, into the data center and the tech space. So I'm sure he also has to be thinking about what that means for the future.

22:27Krystal Ball:And then the last thing that I wanted to bring to you guys here is an update from the Israeli side of things. So they have announced they're planning to seize the entire area south of Lebanon's Litany River in a massive ground invasion. That's according to Israeli and U.S. officials. They're talking to Axios. And Axios says this would be the largest Israeli ground invasion of its northern neighbors since 2006, dragging Lebanon to the epicenter of the escalating war with Iran. Pete Hexeth tried to tell everybody on Friday that the war was not widening. The war was shrinking. The war was narrowing.

23:05Krystal Ball:that Iran was on its knees, that it was practically finished, that they had been obliterated. And meanwhile, not only is that apparently not the case, given that Iran is still able to inflict damage, including to our refueling aircraft, including to there was an Iraqi embassy, the U.S. embassy in Iraq that was struck, that oil field that I showed you earlier, or oil storage rather, that I showed you earlier. So they're continuing to be able to inflict damage. But in addition, not only do you not have them on their knees, but Israel is very invested in continuing to widen this war and using this as an opportunity to go for their most maximal skulls.

23:47Krystal Ball:So they're going to invade and occupy and ethnically cleanse this part of Lebanon, significant part of Lebanon. So there's been already a lot of reporting about significant civilian death toll in that area. Hezbollah has been able to fire back, which I think is not something that the Israelis necessarily expected, that they still had that level of strength. It's certainly not something that I had expected. And I think perhaps it was a bit of a wild card that yet another thing that military planners did not plan for. You also have the possibility of the Houthis becoming more engaged here, which would create even more problems in terms of the oil markets and the economic shock here, which again is a key goal of what the Iranians are doing.

24:31Krystal Ball:So in any case, you know, as the weekend proceeds, we continue to see them climbing up that escalation ladder and we continue to see Trump further and further enmeshed in that escalation trap. So that's where we are, guys. I will bring any additional significant updates to you as they unfold this weekend. And Sagar and I will definitely see you on Monday. What if your soda actually did something for you? Introducing Sky Pop Protein Soda. Sky Pop Protein Soda has 10 grams of complete protein, zero sugar, and real delicious soda taste.