3/19/26: Energy Infrastructure Burns, Trump Wants $200 Billion For War, Energy Prices Spike, Mearsheimer Exposes US Disaster

24:29He couldn't commit fully to the nuke, and he couldn't commit fully to peace. He had to try and do some, look, he's old. He was 89, right? And we all know somebody like that. They're literally doddering. Well, guess what? He's dead now. We created him in a martyr. His son literally has got scars on his face and is hiding in a bunker. The IRGC people, we have killed every, you know, Larjani, we just killed him. Apparently he was, look, he was an asshole. Yeah, he definitely wanted to kill a lot of people. Definitely hated America. Highly educated. You know, his daughter was a professor, I think down in Georgia.

24:59At Emory University. Yeah, at Emory University, okay? Until recently, they made her leave. But yeah. But my point is just, that's who, that was one side of the ledger. Guess what? He's dead. So who do you have left? At every turn, the modern IRGC has said, we cannot negotiate with these people in good faith. And Rouhani, all of these people, they said, no, we can. Let's avoid the war. And remember, the Ayatollah backed that decision. He said, well, let's do diplomacy. Let's do this. Even though they would still chant death to America, great Satan, that's over. It's over. The Kim logic, the Kim family's logic is the only logic in the world that makes any sense.

25:33And like I said, that's the best case scenario. That's why we should never have done this in the first place. That's the nightmare. So now, let's say Trump walks away. Let's say he tacos, he does it, he manages to extricate for the moment. Well, guess what's going to happen down the road? Israel's going to come back and they're going to say, oh, they're building a nuclear weapon. Owing the law. What are you going to do? And this is, you know, this is what we warned about with the 12-day war where everyone, oh, this was so great. And we got in and we got out. And you guys were such haters and you didn't understand that, you know, the glory of our president, et cetera, et cetera.

26:00What did we warn? And again, not just us, right? This was many, many people who could see the writing on the wall. You have now opened up Pandora's box, and it is almost inevitable that we end up back in a hot war with Iran. And that is exactly, exactly where we are. And now, yeah, I mean, it's hard to see how he walks away. It's hard to see how this—the off-ramps are being murdered by the Israelis with the assent. Again, I always want to put blame where it belongs, with the assent of Trump. It's not like he objects to any of this. He's happy to see these assassinations. Happy to see the escalation, happy to greenlight it.

26:36So the off-ramps are literally being murdered. The Iranians have been very clear, we are going to make you pay. And you are going to come to us and beg for mercy. And you are going to accept our terms of your defeat. That has been their message. And now, where do we go next? I mean, very likely boots on the ground. I think, you know, he's reluctant to do it. But I think that's probably what's going to happen next. And you're going to have a lot more dead service members, God forbid. And, you know, we're going to continue to have oil prices go up. The global economy crash. I mean, the bottom is it is truly bottomless how bad things could ultimately get here.

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28:25I'm Bailey Taylor, and this is It Girl. You may know me from my It Girl series I've done on the streets of New York over the years. Well, I've got good news. I am bringing those interviews and many more to this podcast. Yes, we will talk about the style and the success, but we are also talking about the pressure, the expectations, and the real work with the women shaping culture right now. As a woman in the industry, you're always underestimated. So you have to work extra hard and you have to push the narrative in a way that doesn't compromise who you are and your integrity. You know, I like to say I was kind of like a silent ninja.

28:57Each week, I have unfiltered conversations with female founders, creatives, and leaders to talk about ambition, visibility, and what it really takes to build something meaningful in the public eye. Because being an It Girl isn't about the spotlight, it's about owning it. I think the negatives need to be discussed and they need to be told to people who maybe don't do this every day just so they know what's really going on. I feel like pulling the curtain back is important. Listen to It Girl with Bailey Taylor on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. It Girl. Almost 30 years together, four kids, and some of reality TV's most unforgettable moments, we know a thing or two about living life out loud.

29:36We're taking you behind the scenes in our new podcast, Between Us, with me, Heather Dubrow. And me, Terry Dubrow. Between Us isn't about perfect lighting or curated Instagram grids. It's the unfiltered, behind-closed-doors conversations you wish you could eavesdrop on. Equal parts smart, funny, and a little bit scandalous. Every week, Heather will bring you an unapologetic take on the headlines, the trends, and the cultural moments everyone's texting about. And Terry will deliver insider beauty, health, and wellness insights you won't find on TikTok. Together, we'll tell the stories, spill the secrets, and share the hacks that keep life, marriage, and everything in between feeling fresh and fun.

30:15We may live in a gated community, but there's zero gatekeeping here. And plenty of, did they just say that moments? Listen to Between Us on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's go and move on to this next part because it's, you know, the economic damage is already showing up and it's not like the U.S. economy was in a great spot to begin with, guys. Let's put a eight up on the screen. So something Trump has been desperately wanting is for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Well, guess what? We just had a hot inflation report come in. Now you have oil prices skyrocketing.

30:52That is going to not only increase prices at the pump, it's going to increase all prices because that is the way our economy runs on fossil fuels and the reverberating effects. We got a little taste of that during COVID, so it's not too hard to imagine where we are headed with all of this. Not to mention, and again, this is all before we even started this war, Jerome Powell says we effectively have no job creation, none. Let's go ahead and take a listen to what he had to say there. But the thing that I think a good number of people on the committee you're concerned about is just the very, very low level of job creation.

31:27If you adjust what has been the trend job creation over the past, let's say, six months, if you adjust that for what we think our staff thinks is the overstatement due to overcounting, effectively there's zero net job creation in the private sector. But actually, that looks like that's about what the economy needs in terms of dealing with very, very low, non-existent really growth in the labor force, which of course we've never had in our history. So you've got a sort of a zero employment growth equilibrium. Now that's balance, okay. But I would say it does have a feel of downside risk and it's not kind of a really comfortable balance.

32:12So zero net job creation in the private sector, zero. This is a literal nightmare because this is literally the 1970s. This is stagflation. Oil shock, yeah, this is stagflation. High inflation, high unemployment, oil energy shock. We lived through it. Take a look at the mortgage rates. Continue to take up. Take a look at the bond, the yields. I mean, they're climbing as of this morning. And then let's talk about deficit spending. Now, you know me, I'm not a deficit hawk or anything like that, but I do believe in efficient allocation of resources. Let's go ahead and put A10 up here on the screen.

32:48Last story from our great friend Jeff Stein for the Washington Post before he begins his new job over at Notice. Look at this, guys. The Pentagon has now asked the White House today for a more than$200 billion supplemental for the Iran war. Some White House aides think Congress won't support because it is so big. It will tee up a giant battle in Congress. Let me remind everyone that the way that they currently think they'd have to pass this is through reconciliation. To do reconciliation, you have to be revenue neutral. To be revenue neutral, you have to cut$200 billion. That means something$200 billion.

33:22And they've already cut this thing to the bone of discretionary spending of what they've been able to, Medicaid, SNAP, et cetera. Well, how are they gonna find$200 billion? Also, for all the Doge bros who have come up to me now over the last year and told me that I'm being unfair to Doge, even by Doge's own math, by Doge math, which is like bullshit math. We all know. Which is fake, yeah. Doge's most maximal math, how much do you think that they're claiming to save? $150. $215 billion. So we would net, net 15, and that is if you take all of their claims, everything that they ever said. You can go to doge.gov right now and you can look at it.

34:00$215 billion. So we would net$15 billion after you pass this. Now, I want to prepare everybody for the tag, and they're specifically going to come after people like me. They're going to say, you've been bitching and moaning about interceptor stockpiles. This is what this bill is about. Because it is, the vast majority of the spending would be to replace many of the munitions that we've just sent. And you know what my logic would be? I am with you 100%. Let's end the war with Iran, and then we'll do that. And when we do that, we will make sure that there is specific language that this will not be used for a war of choice, for a regime change, that it will be congressionally authorized, and that we will be an established, credible defense for the United States and for its allies in a war where the nation itself has been bought into the war, and we agree that this is a proper use of our resources.

34:47But in the interim, we will not be gaslit that we need a ton more munitions to continue the war with Iran. The war in Iran is a drain on the munitions, and we're definitely not going to be paying Lockheed and Raytheon top dollar, beyond top dollar, because what, but you think they're not going to gouge the shit out of you whenever you need those weapons the most? No, no, no, no, no. We're not playing this game because this is what they did with Iraq. We got into a quagmire. By the way, this is two years of spending in Iraq and Afghanistan. I remember those numbers. The total amount that we spent on the Afghan national security forces was 100 billion.

35:24How many times did I sit here and preach against Ukraine? This is more than Ukraine. Total Ukraine is 180. This is not funding for a little excursion as Trump describes it. This is funding for a long war. So you are being lied to. Not that you're surprised at this point. But when Trump's, oh, we already destroyed them. We can declare victory at any point. In fact, we've already won. Lies. Lies. Don't listen to what they say. Look at the actions. Look at the budget requests. $200 billion, to your point about the interceptors. The Pentagon budget is already a trillion dollars. Pass an audit and find some money if you need to replace your munitions.

36:03Like, this is insane. Think of all the good that could be done with that money. And instead, we want to take this$200 billion so that we can, what, bomb more elementary schools and continue to sustain an illegal war that is plunging us into deep economic crisis and potential World War III. That's what we're going to spend our precious tax dollars on. it's absolutely sickening. And you know the talking points that will come out too. You got to support the troops. And if you don't, you're unpatriotic, blah, blah, blah. So just wait. But in terms of a political reckoning, can you imagine anything that will be more disgusting to the American people than$200 billion?

36:46And by the way, we're going to pay for it, not by raising taxes on the rich or the contractors who are more profiteering, like none of that. It's going to come from your healthcare. It's going to be levied at the gas pump when you pay more. That's who is actually going to pay and suffer. There's the people in this country who already pay and suffer the most. And those are also the ones who are sent over, you know, into the meat grinder to fight the guy. It's already starting. Or put on some ship that's on fire and the toilets don't work. Let me read you a quote from this morning while we're recording this.

37:15The Pentagon is doing a press conference. Secretary Hegseth, my 13-year-old son popped into my office last night while I was editing these remarks. He asked about the war and the families I met at Dover. I looked at him and I said, they died for you, son, so your generation doesn't have to deal with a nuclear Iran. You could copy and paste that out of what I used to hear in 2003 and in 2004 in Bush country. We're back. We are back. That's what they're going to do. Oh, you got to support to support the troops. You got to support the war. I also just have to say, let us not forget, we had a nuclear deal with Iran that they were following that the first Trump administration took and tore up.

37:53We had new negotiations with the Iranians where they were willing to give even more concessions than they had originally given in those negotiations. And guess what we did after we got that offer diplomatically from them at the table? We bombed them and murdered their leadership. So Pete Hegseth can kindly shut the fuck up with your lies and your deceit. And you know what's even worse? Is that this, you know what else he said? Today will be the largest strike on Iran to date. Ugh. It just, this is the trap. We're going to talk about this with Professor Pape, because he literally wrote the book on it.

38:28But it's like, you know, and nobody like, I don't, people are like, oh, you must be loving. This is a nightmare. This is a literal nightmare. Yeah, we're a rich country. We're going to be okay. But everybody else, and the people who have to fight in this war, the Pentagon said yesterday that they're considering thousands of troops to be sent to the Middle East. There's already 50 ,000. There's 2 ,500 on their way there. You and I could easily see some cockamamie scheme about, you know, oh, we gotta seize the shoreline. And then once you seize the shoreline, you gotta seize the rear. If those guys are gonna be attacked.

39:01I mean, do you even know the last amphibious assault the United States did under fire? It was the Korean War. It's been, that's been Douglas MacArthur that anything like that has happened. Just think about it. Like, that's the territory that we're currently, that's the territory that's currently that we're considering. and that we shouldn't even have to consider it. We should just get out. $200 billion also is nothing compared to what will happen if this has to continue on. We spent, I don't even know, what,$6 trillion in Iraq, a trillion or so in Afghanistan. So$200 billion, that's just a down payment, not even a down payment.

39:34It's a 2 % down payment on what we could be looking at in the future. For period protection you can put on and forget about, nothing beats Nick's Leakproof Underwear, North America's number one leak-proof underwear brand. Let's face it, life can be unpredictable, but your leak-proof underwear shouldn't be. That's why millions of people choose NYX. For periods, for light leaks, for everyday freshness. NYX undies are super comfy, super absorbent, and made to handle whatever your day throws at you. Day two of your period? Covered. Your daily run? No problem. That big sneeze? You know the one. Yep, we've got you.

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40:45I'm Bailey Taylor, and this is It Girl. You may know me from my It Girl series I've done on the streets of New York over the years. Well, I've got good news. I am bringing those interviews and many more to this podcast. Yes, we will talk about the style and the success, but we are also talking about the pressure, the expectations, and the real work with the women shaping culture right now. As a woman in the industry, you're always underestimated. So you have to work extra hard, and you have to push the narrative in a way that doesn't compromise who you are and your integrity. You know, I like to say I was kind of like a silent ninja.

41:17Each week, I have unfiltered conversations with female founders, creatives, and leaders to talk about ambition, visibility, and what it really takes to build something meaningful in the public eye. Because being an It Girl isn't about the spotlight, it's about owning it. I think the negatives need to be discussed and they need to be told to people who maybe don't do this every day, just so they know what's really going on. I feel like pulling the curtain back is important. Listen to It Girl with Bailey Taylor on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

42:09TikTok Radio. Plus TikTok's most influential creators all in one place. Search for iHeartTikTok Radio, make it a preset, and stay connected all day. All right, let's get to oil. You know, it's a disaster. What else can we say? Already you can start to see a lot of the oil markets are really beginning to wake up to what is happening. So let's start first with what's happening here at home. Very viral clip of a woman being interviewed. Who is it? Jonathan Allen, right? Jonathan Allen over at NBC News. Ask the three-time Trump voter at the pump what she thinks about him. Let's take a listen. If you could say something to President Trump and he was going to hear you right now, what would it be?

42:48You are a worthless pile of s***. And you voted for him how many times? Three times. That was my bad. Apparently, I'm an idiot. So, that's the sentiment. Pennsylvania, is that an important state? I forget. I got to go back and check my notes on that one. Anyone remember? Can anyone tell me about Pennsylvania? Anyone want to know the price of gas today in Pennsylvania? $3.82 a gallon. National average right now is$3.88. It will be$4 a gallon probably by the end of the week. Diesel is around$5 a gallon right now. That's just here in the U.S. Again, as I said, globally, Japan, many other countries far surpassed already$4 a gallon.

43:30Let's continue then for the price of oil. B2, guys, let's go ahead and put that one up there on the screen. The current West Texas crude oil price is about$95 per barrel, and then the Brent oil price is about$106 a barrel as of this morning. It's actually down a little bit from where it was, jumping I think to an 11-year high is what somebody was saying here in some of the oil analysis. But what we are watching basically happen is that oil soared past$110, has come down a little bit. This is the Brent oil price. Then the West Texas one continues to hover right around$100 per barrel. What is also happening is that gas prices, European gas prices this morning went up to at least 25 % to 30 % in their spike.

44:20So that will be a disaster for a lot of the European economies. And this is just the beginning because remember, they were very reliant on Russian gas. Now they're actually trying to buy Russian gas as a result, you know, through a pipeline. Then most of what they did is they booked long-term contracts with Qatar. Now the entire Qatari facility is offline. God only knows how long, you know, that's going to continue and the extensive damage that's been suffered. Then you combine what we talked about earlier with the potential strikes in the Red Sea. And then I also think, you know, we have to really figure here on the notion of global energy markets itself.

44:57Because we're about two weeks from export ban conversation. And I've been looking into the Biden administration, floated it, and a lot of Americans may fairly say, hey, we are an exporter of oil. Why don't we just not export it? Why don't we just keep it all here? From what I have learned, reading and talking to a lot of the oil experts, even though I would theoretically support an idea like that, you basically don't want to do it because of refinery capacity. So what I've learned is that the oil market, because it was set up to be truly global, is that even though the United States is a net exporter of oil, we are not fully capable of refining all of the oil that we produce.

45:36Various different refineries in various different parts of the region are set up for very specific types of oil, and redoing that would take a long time. It would be incredibly difficult. It would basically break the oil market as we know it. You don't really want to do it unless you are in a World War II, like, catastrophic total war type of situation. To do it would basically destroy the current global commodities market. It would undermine U.S. oil companies. Not that I care that much about U.S. oil companies. But more importantly, it would put immense strain. You would effectively have to nationalize the oil industry at that point with an export ban, try and get some private partnership.

46:16and in the interim, the prices would just go sky high. Because of refinery, capacity could have total shortages. I think we're not that far away from an oil export bank. So especially in the short term, doesn't really solve the problem because the refineries here are already pretty much maxed out with regard to domestic crude. Our allies would be totally fucked throughout the world, Europe, Asia, et cetera. So in terms of their appetite to, right now it's not like they're super excited about this war, but they're not overtly like you have to stop this and we're, you know, and doing whatever they can to get us to stop.

46:52If we did an export ban, then you would very quickly get to that place because they would be so screwed. Domestically, like I said, it doesn't really solve the problem because you don't have the refinery capacity. So prices will continue to go up here in terms of our domestic oil production. You know, Trump, he was trying to say drill, baby, drill the other day. And instead he said dig, we must. But anyway, dig we must is his policy. Well, how motivated do you think oil companies are going to be to dig when they have this massive constraint on their ability to export this oil capacity? So they're going to cut back on their, you know, their drilling and their, you know, their extraction activities.

47:35So, yeah, then I guess the next move is you nationalize them. OK, I'd be OK with that. so that you get to force them and compel them. But I mean, we're just in, we're in wild territory there. And then again, to the core point, it creates a whole bunch of problems in the world and does not really solve the problem here. But I think you're right that we, I'm sure those conversations are already happening in the White House. There's no doubt about it. And Trump has already taken some actions, recognizing what a big problem this is for him. We can put B4 up on the screen. So he's issuing some waivers for the Jones Act.

48:12This is a little bit esoteric. We talked about it here before. But basically the idea of the Jones Act is you have to use U.S. ships in order to, you know, in order to. Intra-U.S. transit. Exactly. Yeah, intra-U.S. transit. And so this was meant to bolster the U.S. shipbuilding, domestic shipbuilding capacity. It hasn't really worked, but it still has a lot of supporters in Congress, and it is the way things are set up. So they are issuing these waivers specifically for, they say, vital resources like oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and coal to flow freely to U.S. ports for 60 days. Again, the analysis I saw, Sagar, is this is probably not going to make that much of a difference because we just don't even have that many of these U.S.

48:54ships that could do this work. And foreign flag. It's complicated, but basically, look, the Jones Act is one of those wonk things that people like Ezra Klein and them have all been obsessed with for like 10 years. And I sympathize, I actually do get it. It's one of the only areas of protectionism where I was like, yeah, it doesn't really make sense. Well, it hasn't really worked just because our shipbuilding is so much more expensive than like, you know, China. And it really screws over California and Hawaii, in particular, Hawaii especially. They get destroyed by the Jones Act. But the point beyond, like above, is we are grasping at straws.

49:25You want to know what the Secretary of the Treasury said just this morning? They are floating, lifting sanctions on Iranian oil that is currently at sea just to pump more oil into the system. So imagine you're at war with Nazi Germany, all right? The Nazis have a lot of oil. The Nazis have oil at sea. You're so worried about energy prices. You're like, you know what we're going to do? We're going to let – who's in neutral countries? Switzerland, something like that. We're going to let – say, Switzerland, go ahead and just buy. That is how screwed the oil market is. That's how bad things are. Also, for the Kremlin, just so everybody understands, I think India yesterday just purchased like 30 million barrels of oil from Russia, which was all just floating at sea.

50:06They are floating more oil sanctions relief. The Kremlin is rubbing their hands together like they haven't made this much money in years. You already have the geopolitical situation on the continent, changing the Belgian prime minister being like, listen, maybe we just got to normalize relations with Russia. I don't really see a way around it. So, you know, for all the neocons who cared so much about Ukraine, congratulations. You just bought the Russians five, six more years on the front to be able to pay all the people who are currently fighting. That's kind of a disaster, allegedly. We also should not rule out the immense variance that's happening in the oil market.

50:40So, for example, let's put B5 up here on the screen. This was a very – this is one of these analysts who I follow. He said the current spot price for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel on the West Coast appear unhinged at$147 a barrel,$162 a barrel, and$186 a barrel until one considers that refiners in China, India, Japan, and South Korea face physical crude costs that top$150 to$155. Basically, what a lot of these oil traders have been talking about is about the actual physical price and then the future price, which is what we're all looking at, right, with the crude oil futures, et cetera. So if the physical price is now currently trading at$150 per barrel, the expectation is that without any change is that the future price will catch up with what the actual physical price is trading at.

51:32And again, just to put things in perspective,$150 a barrel, I mean, it's roughly$5.50,$6 a gallon nationally, something like that, depending on where you live. That's catastrophic. The highest price reached under Biden was$5.05, and that was a nightmare. I mean, I know you remember that as well. Consumers were getting nuked by that one. And the Biden administration, they tried everything. What did they say? Putin's price hike. Well, and they also tried, we had like more in the strategic petroleum reserve at that point too. We had more room to wiggle, you know, wiggle room. It was SPR release, I think after that, we've already done the SPR release.

52:09And that's, you know, so the market is taking that into consideration. I just, I think everybody really should prepare for future, like, especially if these attacks continue, which we should take the secretary at his word, today will be the biggest day of strikes. He basically says that every day, so I don't know. But he said today will be the biggest day of strikes on Iran. Let's take the man at his word. What does that mean? What are you striking in conjunction with the Israelis? Maybe they learned their lesson not to hit the South Paris gas field. Are you going to hit other oil refineries? Or do we have any real expectation the Israelis are going to fight that way?

52:45I mean, we are in a genuine crunch. And I think if we have a global depression, it will begin in Asia because they are so, so heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil and on Middle Eastern gas. The Chinese are going to be okay. They have an immense amount of capacity, of strategic reserve. They plan for things like this. And they have their own domestic oil. They have their own domestic capacity. They have solar. They have, by the way, no compunction about burning as much coal or any of that if that they need to. They will be fine and they will start to think about it. The countries that will really suffer, who also, I'll be fair to them, they have their own reserves and they plan for this, but they're more reliant on us.

53:24Japan and South Korea. South Korea is the number two buyer of Qatari LNG, the Japanese prime minister. She's here in Washington today. Her entire meeting, their whole meeting with them, which was planned months in advance, was only supposed to be about trade and our trade agreement and what that was all going to look like. The whole thing is now about Iran and Trump berating her for not sending their limited navy to the Straits of Hormuz. I mean, their economy is seriously, it's very precarious. They've only got 200 days or so of oil that's in their strategic reserve. They're going to have to be buying at an immense price.

53:59I checked yesterday the front page of the Yomiri Shunbun, and it was like$4.15 or something a gallon in leader price. It's the biggest story in Japan that's happening right now. And that's our number three trading partner. These are the most important allies in the world, Japan and South Korea. Hegseth said that the Europeans should be telling us thank you this morning. I'm sure they're feeling really grateful for the fact that we've completely, once again, destabilized their countries and upended their economies. One more update on Mr. Hegseth and his briefing this morning. So we were talking earlier about how Jeff Stein reported the request to Congress was likely to be$200 billion.

54:37Well, he says that's actually the, that's like the low end. He says, we're going back to Congress and our folks there to ensure we're properly funded. Quote, it takes money to kill bad guys. And he said that that war funding request, quote, could move, meaning it's not moving down, guys. It's only moving in one direction. So$200 billion, I guess, is the optimistic estimate of what they're going to be asking Congress for. I mean, this is just, this is just a catastrophe. What else can you say? It's an utter catastrophe. Yeah,$200 billion. I mean, this is how it starts. This is why you don't get into these situations in the first place.

55:14And the logic of it all, I'm so excited to talk to a not excited, but in a way depressed to talk to Professor Pate because his framework and logic and steps, it all makes sense. And once you can put that framework and evaluate events through that, you're going to see exactly where things are going. And that's why, oh, panic in, catastrophe. I remember, so Rory had a tweet on, I think maybe day three, four, and he said oil is going to$200 a barrel if the Straits of Hormuz are closed. And you know, people ridiculed him. They ridiculed me and us whenever we had him here on the show. I actually got multiple messages because oil dropped a little bit after that.

55:54And I said, did you not read it? He said, if it remains closed for a prolonged period. He's right. Look at where things are currently trending. He was totally vindicated on what that happened. So the initial expectations of every single one of these people that were saying, listen, this goes on more than three weeks. We're here now. What is it, day 19? It's day 19 of the war. We got two more days and we're at three weeks. Nobody thinks that this is going to end. All of those initial weeks conversations, they were correct. And that was with the best case that they were laying out. We already know that we're not in the best case scenario.

56:25They're not surrendering. There's no evidence whatsoever ever. Yesterday, the Iranians actually fired more missiles than they have in a long time, in like two or three weeks, actually. And the penetration rate appears to be higher as well because they're running out of interceptors. Interceptors are running out. Oh, shocking. We're getting—I mean, the Ras Lafon gas field, Does nobody think about this? Qatar, there's 10 ,000 US troops stationed at that base at the Al-Adid Air Force Base. We're supposed to have a ton of air defense. Nobody thought that this was gonna be a target. You can't shoot it down.

56:55What happened? That's a seriously, serious, a serious problem, which apparently nobody's even talking about. We weren't even able to shoot it down. What a nightmare. Not to mention one of our carriers having to limp back to Crete for repairs because of the fire, which they're also investigating whether crew members actually set that fire because they were so desperate to get off of the ship. Yeah, you didn't see that. I mean, that's one possibility. Another possibility is we're being lied to about the source of fire. In any case, whatever actually happened there, it's being removed from the region because it has to go and undergo repairs.

57:28The other carrier that's in the region, they have to stay a good distance away because they are worried about Iranian attacks and being able to actually strike them. So in any case, the landscape is pretty dire here. And none of this was difficult to anticipate. None of it was difficult to anticipate at all. But, you know, you had a president who decided that, you know, he was he knew better and chose who he wanted to listen to. He decided he liked the line. He liked the lies that the Israelis were were giving him and effectively continues to follow their lead based on what we're seeing in the battlefield.

58:02Yeah, there you go. All right. We have Professor John Mearsheimer standing by. Let's get to it. For period protection you can put on and forget about, nothing beats NYX leak-proof underwear. North America's number one leak-proof underwear brand. Let's face it, life can be unpredictable, but your leak-proof underwear shouldn't be. That's why millions of people choose NYX. For periods, for light leaks, for everyday freshness. NYX undies are super comfy, super absorbent, and made to handle whatever your day throws at you. Day two of your period? Covered. Your daily run? No problem. That big sneeze?

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59:14I'm Bailey Taylor, and this is It Girl. You may know me from my It Girl series I've done on the streets of New York over the years. Well, I've got good news. I am bringing those interviews and many more to this podcast. Yes, we will talk about the style and the success, but we are also talking about the pressure, the expectations, and the real work with the women shaping culture right now. As a woman in the industry, you're always underestimated. So you have to work extra hard and you have to push the narrative in a way that doesn't compromise who you are and your integrity. You know, I like to say I was kind of like a silent ninja.

59:45Each week, I have unfiltered conversations with female founders, creatives, and leaders to talk about ambition, visibility, and what it really takes to build something meaningful in the public eye. because being an it girl isn't about the spotlight. It's about owning it. I think the negatives need to be discussed and they need to be told to people who maybe don't do this every day just so they know what's really going on. I feel like pulling the curtain back is important. Listen to it girl with Bailey Taylor on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. It girl. Come check this.

1:00:18iHeart and TikTok have come together to create something new. I love it. Where the world of TikTok meets your playlist. Three words that will change your life. iHeart TikTok Radio. The biggest hits across iHeart Radio. What's trending for you on TikTok? Tell me a sound that's better than this. iHeart TikTok Radio. Plus TikTok's most influential creators all in one place. Search for iHeart TikTok Radio, make it a preset, and stay connected all day. Joining us now is Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago. Great friend of the show. We're honored to always speak to him. Thank you very much for joining us, sir.

1:00:56My pleasure to be here. So, Professor, we haven't been able to speak with you since the outbreak of the conflict. We have been reading quite a bit and looking at some realist scholars. First, we've seen this piece from Foreign Affairs. Let's put this up here on the screen. Curious for your reaction. He says, how America's war on Iran backfired and Tehran will now set the terms for peace. your general reaction, not only to the war as where we are stand now, but how, if any way, that this actual conflict could come to a close? Well, I think that starting this war was a colossal mistake. And it's hard to believe that President Trump did this, not simply because he had promised that he would not start any more wars and certainly not get us into a forever war.

1:01:46But if you're going to go to war, this is the last war that you want to start. And the reason is that the Iranians hold most of the cards. If you think about where we are today, and you think more importantly about further marching up the escalation ladder, Iran can do enormous damage to the international economy. And there's nothing much we can do to prevent that. So we're in a precarious situation right now. And I would argue we don't have an exit ramp, but as we move forward, things only get worse. We've been talking a lot this morning on the Israeli and U.S. attacks on the South Par's gas field in Iran and then Iranian retaliation, both in Saudi and Kuwait and in Qatar.

1:02:33What do you make of the significance of these developments and this escalation? I think it's hugely significant. And I think the fact that President Trump issued this post where he made it clear how angry he was at the Israelis for doing this is evidence of that. Look, President Trump is doing everything he can to keep oil prices under$100 a barrel. And that is not easy to do. And I would note that he has taken sanctions off Russian oil and he has allowed Iran to sell its oil. It's very important to understand that Iran is selling its oil on world markets. Iran has been allowed to send oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

1:03:24And the reason that Trump is allowing this is because he wants all the oil he could possibly get in the world oil markets. And he's been quite successful, at least at keeping the price of a barrel down under slightly less than$100. Well, what happened yesterday when the Israelis hit this natural gas field in Iran, and then the Iranians retaliated first against Qatar, and now apparently they're attacking Saudi Arabian sites as well, is that the price of a barrel of oil is going up. I saw it was up around$115 this morning. This is disastrous for the United States and for the world economy. And if things continue to escalate, which is a real possibility, the economic situation will only get worse.

1:04:21So what happened yesterday really mattered. And that, again is why President Trump made it clear to the Israelis, don't ever do this again. Professor, what do you think the best and worst case scenarios are at this point? Start with the best. The best case is that we work out some sort of negotiated settlement, but I don't see how you can do that. The fact is that to get Iran to stop the war, you have to make major concessions to the Iranians. And I find it hard to imagine the United States and Israel making the sort of concessions that are necessary to get Iran to stop. So I see the war going on.

1:05:03And the worst case scenario is that you continue to march up the escalation ladder and the consequences for the international economy are devastating. And, you know, we were just talking about oil, but it's not only oil. One third of the world's fertilizer comes through the Strait of Hormuz. And it's quite clear that what's happening is that without fertilizer, farmers all around the world, including in the United States, are beginning to have major problems planting and harvesting food. And what this means for the future is that the price of food is going to go up. So not only is the price of gas going to go up and the price of oil going to go up, but the price of food is going to go up.

1:05:48And this is going to create major league inflation, which is going to slow down growth and result in the deaths of many people all around the world. So the potential for disaster here is just not to be underestimated. Yeah. Well, and to your point about the unlikelihood of a negotiated settlement, not only do you have the Iranians that are like, no, you haven't experienced enough pain yet. So we would demand significant concessions in order to come to the table at this point. They don't seem interested in talking right now at all. You also have the Israelis that want this thing to keep going. I wanted to get your reaction specifically to the assassination of Ali Larjani.

1:06:25There's been a lot of speculation that the Israelis are effectively trying to make sure that any potential off-ramps are taken off the table, that anyone who could have been an interlocutor, could have been a negotiator, is assassinated so they are no longer available, that you have more hardliners who are in place within the Iranian government. I wonder if that's your assessment as well. It certainly looks like that. I mean, anybody who is moderate inside of the Israeli government is taken out. But the Iranian government. Excuse me, the Iranian government is taken out. But I think it's quite clear that more generally, the Israelis have this theory that if they can decapitate the regime, that's a quick way to victory.

1:07:09And this is a fallacious strategy. It just doesn't work. So the idea that they can kill Iranian leaders and that's going to bring the war to an end is not a smart idea. And again, I think you're right that what the Israelis are trying to do also is take out the moderates and see them replaced by more hardliners, making it more difficult to get a negotiated settlement. But I would argue, Crystal, that no matter who's in charge in Iran, it's hard to see how you get a deal. And the reason is that we would have to make major league concessions to the Iranians to put an end to this war. And that would involve things like ending sanctions or taking at least most of the sanctions off the table, maybe paying reparations, and also just working out a deal where Iran is guaranteed that it won't be attacked in another six months.

1:08:09You want to remember that there was a war in June where Israel and the United States attacked Iran, and here we are, not even a year later, and we're back at it. The Iranians want this to be the last attack by Israel and the United States. So we'd have to give them some sort of guarantees. I find it hard to imagine the United States and Israel doing that. Right. You know, Professor, what do you also make now of U.S. alliances? And so I've been talking ad nauseum here on the show about the punishment that we're giving to the Japanese, the South Korean, the Taiwanese economies, about the GCC nations, which are projected to contract 14, 15 percent.

1:08:49Qatar now, I mean, their literal lifeblood is natural gas. Who knows how long it will take to rebuild their own facilities, even if the war were to end today. And we magically gave them sanctions relief and somehow miraculously convinced them not to pursue a nuclear weapon, which I think they would probably want to do at this point. Let's say all of that happened. If everything ends today, What are the state and strategic logic of actual U.S. alliances, which are far more important to the U.S. than Israel after this war? Well, we've done significant damages to our allies around the world. There's just no question about that.

1:09:26If you look at what's happening in Japan and in India and in South Korea, this is disastrous. And the same thing is true with regard to Europe. By the way, there have been all sorts of reports that instability is returning to Iraq, that the Iran war is spilling over into Iraq. We could go on and on. I mean, the negative consequences of this war are extensive. And the fact is we're not going to get a negotiated settlement anytime soon. This war is going to go on. And the Iranians, of course, have a vested interest in keeping it going until the United States is willing to make the concessions that they demand.

1:10:12Let's go and put C4 up on the screen here. Israel has also used this as an opportunity to, it appears, annex additional territory in Lebanon, certainly to attack within Lebanon. Here they are, you know, downing a complete apartment building in central Beirut. They are just also warning residents, saying that they want to remove them permanently from portions of South Lebanon. Here's another image of the apartment building being destroyed and demolished in the middle of a major city here. So can you talk to us about some of Israel's larger goals and what they're up to, not only in Lebanon, in West Bank, in Gaza, and what the project is?

1:10:54Well, the Israelis, I think, have two goals in Lebanon. one which is to permanently defang Hezbollah. And then two, I think they want to control all of the territory in southern Lebanon up to the Latani River. Before this war started on February 28th, the conventional wisdom in the West was that Hezbollah had been defanged and was no longer a serious threat to Israel. Well, we've been watching Hezbollah lob missiles into northern Israel. lob rockets into northern Israel. And all the evidence is that Hezbollah is very much alive. I would also note to you that the Iranians are coordinating with Hezbollah, according to all the reports I've seen.

1:11:42And the Iranians are lobbying missiles into northern Israel, where Hezbollah is firing away. So in northern Israel, the Israeli citizenry is getting bombed quite regularly, which is disastrous for Israel. Furthermore, with regard to invading southern Lebanon and going up to the Latani River, if you look at the number of Hezbollah forces in that region, you look at the terrain, I think it's extremely unlikely that the Israelis are going to be successful. And again, I've been reading reports that the Israelis are losing lots of Merkava tanks, as you would expect, in their attempts to conquer more territory in southern Lebanon.

1:12:28So from an Israeli point of view, what's happening vis-a-vis Hezbollah in Lebanon is not good news. They are not doing well. So they're not doing well against Iran, and they're not doing well against Lebanon. Then why? Why do they continue to do this? Metanyahu has bragged about becoming a, quote, global superpower. I believe he said that in Hebrew. Is that really just about fulfilling his ambition to destroy any potential regional threat, even at the cost of becoming a global pariah and co-opting the United States of America, which itself may abandon it sometime in the future. Why would they continue to expend this much blood and treasure if it's really not in their interest, or is it?

1:13:12Well, I'd make two points. One is the Israelis are addicted to war. The Israelis believe in a very profound way in big stick diplomacy. They believe that they can pound countries into submission. They don't believe that you need political settlements to solve wars. They think that you can settle wars with the mailed fist. This is a foolish way of thinking, but it is the way they think. And that explains a lot of what's going on. The second thing is that it's quite clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu is in political trouble and legal trouble inside of Israel, and that his best strategy for surviving is a constant state of war.

1:14:00So many Israelis believe that as long as Prime Minister Netanyahu is in office, he's going to go to great lengths to keep the war machine in action, to keep fighting wars, because that's the best way he can achieve political survival. So I think it's those two factors together that account for what Israel is doing. I wanted to get your reaction to some of the allegations of Joe Kent, who just resigned from the Trump administration over the Iran war. And in his telling, effectively, you know, Israel came in and tricked, effectively, Trump into pursuing this path. He told Tucker Carlson yesterday, and clips were going to do a more fulsome review of this interview later in the show.

1:14:46But he told Tucker Carlson, effectively, they would bring in what appeared to be faulty intelligence to try to manipulate the president and his advisors. And that is ultimately the reason why Trump launched this war. What do you make of those allegations and how does that match with the reporting and the thinking you've done about the way that Israel operates in the U.S.? I have no doubt that Joe Kent is correct, that it was Israel and the Israel lobby that led us into this war. I mean, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, and Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, said as much immediately after the war started.

1:15:31They made it clear that it wasn't the United States that took the initiative in starting this war. It was Israel that took the initiative, and Israel, in effect, dragged us in. Furthermore, you want to remember that Lindsey Graham has admitted that he went to Israel, and he coached Prime Minister Netanyahu on how to convince President Trump to go to war against Iran. You just want to think about that. here's a U.S. senator saying that he was coaching Prime Minister Netanyahu on how to get President Trump to go to war against Iran. In other words, President Trump needed coaching because his basic inclination was not to go to war against Iran.

1:16:19And then if you look at what was happening inside the United States, all you have to do is look at the two principal individuals who were advising Trump on whether or not he should go to war. They were Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who are passionate Zionists. In fact, Jonathan Powell, who is Britain's national security advisor. This is Britain's national security advisor. He was present at the negotiations that were taking place between Iran and the United States right before the war. and he describes Kushner and Witkoff as Israeli assets. Just think about that. The two principal advisors to President Trump, and remember President Trump said that he was going to take his cue from those two individuals as to whether or not he should go to war against Iran, were seen by the British National Security Advisor as Israeli assets.

1:17:16Truly remarkable. This is just the tip of the iceberg, I could point to all sorts of other evidence that it was Israel and it was the lobby that pushed President Trump into this war. And why do you think they succeeded with this president with other presidents? Obviously, I mean, Netanyahu talks about he's won at this war for 40 years as a fulfillment of his greatest fantasy. Trump is not the first U.S. president to get pressured towards a war in Iran. What was it about him or his administration or the tactics that they used that allowed them to succeed here where they had failed in the past? Well, first of all, there's the possibility that they have information about President Trump's past behavior that they're using to blackmail him.

1:18:02We have no hard evidence of that. I want to make it clear. But just watching this unfold, it does seem like that might be the case, because President Trump is so beholden to the Israelis. It's really quite amazing. But I think the two other arguments that you can put on the table are, number one, that the Israelis actually convinced him that Iran was a paper tiger and that it could be easily brought to its knees. You want to remember that before the war started, when President Trump had moved the Armada into the Middle East, Steve Witkoff said that President Trump was surprised that the mere presence of the Armada and the threat that that Armada might be used against Iran didn't bring the Iranians to surrender.

1:18:57He thought that the threat, the mere threat of force would coerce the Iranians into surrendering. That tells you he thought that this regime was very weak. He thought it would fail quickly. And this, by the way, is why President Trump didn't accept the arguments that this would be a long war and that the Iranians were likely to shut the Strait of Hormuz. He has said that he was told that the Iranians were likely to shut the Strait of Hormuz. But he just didn't believe it because he thought we would win a quick and easy and decisive victory. So I think President Trump was primed, mainly through the Israelis, to think that this was going to be an easy victory.

1:19:49Then the other thing is, I think the Venezuela precedent gave him the impression that he could float like a butterfly and sting like a bee. That what he did in Venezuela, he could do in Iran. And I don't think he fully realized, despite the fact that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was telling him that this was going to be an extremely difficult operation and we really didn't have a good military option. President Trump just disregarded that. He thought that the naysayers said this before Venezuela, but I went out and proved that, you know, we can do magical things in Venezuela, and I'll just do magical things again against Iran.

1:20:33And I think when you put Venezuela together with the stories he was being told about how weak and how vulnerable the Iranian regime was, I think it was easy for him to pull the trigger. Last question for you, sir, about the Straits of Hormuz. It appears that some sort of ground operation is, you know, I wouldn't say it seems potential. With the deployment of all these troops, it would make sense in terms of the escalation ladder. I believe you've compared it before potential to Gallipoli. What would that look like? What would that draw us into? Any sort of ground control operation on the Straits of Hormuz or on Karg Island?

1:21:13Well, Karg Island is different than the Strait because you have to get through the Strait to get to Karg Island unless you want to launch an attack from Saudi Arabia across the Persian Gulf onto the beaches of Karg Island, which I don't think we want to do. I think it's almost impossible to get through the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, it's very clear that you can't use naval force alone to get through. The U.S. Navy won't even go near the strait, and all the precedents in this regard say stay away. Ground forces, it would require a major operation. And even if you brought ground forces in and you controlled the terrain around the Strait, the fact is it would still be exceedingly difficult for the Navy and for tankers and other kinds of ships, cargo ships, to get through the Strait, in large part because there would still be mines at the bottom of the Strait, lots of mines, which are easy for the Iranians to lay.

1:22:28And furthermore, the Iranians have all sorts of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, drones, both sea-based and air-based, that they can use to attack any ships that come near the strait. So I'm not sure that even if you wanted to commit large-scale ground forces to try and surround the strait, that that would solve the problem. And most importantly here, once you commit large-scale ground forces, you're in a quagmire. I mean, this would be disastrous. Trump clearly understands that, that putting ground forces anywhere inside of Iran, whether it's Karg Island, whether it's around the strait, whether you're talking about putting ground forces inside of Iran to try and capture that enriched uranium that they have is a prescription for big trouble.

1:23:22Well, thank you so much for joining us, sir. As always, we appreciate your analysis. You're more than welcome. It was my pleasure. Thank you.

1:23:44I'm Bailey Taylor, and this is It Girl. This podcast is all about going deeper with the women shaping culture right now. Yes, we will talk about the style and the success, but we are also talking about the pressure, the expectations, and the real work behind it all. As a woman in the industry, you're always underestimated. So you have to work extra hard in a way that doesn't compromise who you are and your integrity. You know, I like to say I was kind of like a silent ninja. Listen to It Girl with Bailey Taylor on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Almost 30 years together, four kids, and some of reality TV's most unforgettable moments, we're taking you behind the scenes in our podcast Between Us.

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