In short
Podcast Summary: Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Episode
3/19/26 - Joe Kent Sounds Off On Tucker, Professor Pape On Incoming Iran Invasion
Overview In this episode of *Breaking Points*, hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti discuss significant developments in U.S. foreign policy, particularly the tensions surrounding Iran and allegations against Joe Kent, who recently resigned from his position in the government.
Key Topics Discussed
Joe Kent's Allegations and Resignation
- Joe Kent, a notable figure with anti-war sentiments, is under FBI investigation for allegedly leaking classified information.
- Krystal and Saagar argue that such investigations are manipulative tactics used against dissenting voices within the government, comparing Kent's situation to past cases like Dan Caldwell, who was also accused of leaking information but later cleared.
- Kent's resignation is framed as a courageous act, likened to historical figures like Daniel Ellsberg.
Interview Insights
- Krystal and Saagar share clips from Kent's interview with Tucker Carlson, where he asserts that Iran poses no imminent threat to the U.S. This statement contradicts the administration's narrative that Iran's nuclear capabilities are a pressing danger.
- Kent describes Iran's strategic position as pragmatic, noting their lack of immediate nuclear weapon development despite geopolitical tensions.
Critique of U.S. Government Messaging
- The hosts express skepticism regarding the Biden administration and its reliance on information from Israeli officials, suggesting that the U.S. government has been misled about the nature of the Iranian threat.
- Kent's comments about the influence of Israeli interests in U.S. policymaking are emphasized, indicating a deeper concern over foreign influence in domestic decisions.
Charlie Kirk's Assassination
- The discussion shifts to the assassination of Charlie Kirk, a close advisor to Trump who opposed the war with Iran. Kent’s assertion that there were attempts to block investigations into Kirk's death raises further questions.
- The hosts highlight potential links between Kirk’s assassination and the broader context of U.S.-Israel relations, suggesting that the political environment could be tied to his outspoken stance against war.
Professor Robert Pape's Analysis
- The episode features insights from Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, discussing the escalation of conflict with Iran.
- Pape outlines his concept of the "escalation trap," detailing how the U.S. has historically failed to achieve strategic objectives through military action.
- He forecasts that the U.S. is likely moving toward ground troop deployments in Iran, citing the current military buildup and strategic decisions being made.
Escalation Phases
- Pape categorizes the conflict into stages, identifying the current situation as moving into Stage 2, characterized by horizontal escalation and economic warfare.
- He warns that the situation could escalate further, outlining potential scenarios that could lead to a more significant military engagement.
Key Takeaways
- Importance of Independent Media: Both hosts emphasize the role of independent media in providing diverse perspectives, particularly in times of political unrest.
- Critical View of Foreign Policy: There is a strong critique of how U.S. foreign policy, particularly concerning Iran, has been influenced by external lobbying and domestic political pressures.
- Need for Accountability: The episode calls for greater scrutiny and accountability within the U.S. government, particularly regarding decisions tied to military action and foreign relations.
Conclusion This episode of *Breaking Points* reveals a complex narrative surrounding U.S. involvement with Iran, questioning the motives behind government actions, and the broader implications for American foreign policy. Krystal and Saagar provide a platform for voices like Joe Kent and insights from experts like Robert Pape to challenge mainstream narratives, advocating for transparency and accountability.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOJoe Kent Under Investigation
2:11 to 3:56
Discussion on Joe Kent's FBI investigation and its implications.
“So first, we're going to start here with some news at the top.”
Debate on Iran's Nuclear Threat
3:56 to 6:40
Analyzing claims regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities and U.S. policy.
“I mean, I don't believe this administration, and I think you're probably right that the allegations are complete bullshit that he is a leaker.”
Intelligence Community's Role
6:40 to 9:50
Examining the intelligence assessments regarding Iran's nuclear program.
“And that's not because the Iranians are stupid people.”
Israeli Influence on U.S. Policy
9:50 to 12:20
Insight into how Israeli officials impact U.S. governmental decisions.
“That opening statement as submitted to the committee in advance of this hearing stated that as a result of last summer's airstrikes, quote, Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated, end quote, correct?”
Charlie Kirk's Assassination Discussion
12:20 to 14:00
Connecting the dots between Charlie Kirk's assassination and current events.
“that was omitted because, again, that's very uncomfortable for this administration in all of their many layered lies and rationales for why we are now in this disastrous war.”
The Assassination of Charlie Kirk: A Shocking Revelation
14:00 to 18:04
Discussion about the implications of Charlie Kirk's assassination and its connection to U.S.-Israel relations.
“Sample different things until they find what sticks.”
Exploring Security Breaches and Political Manipulations
20:10 to 28:00
Discussion about security breaches related to Trump and implications for his presidency.
“Plus TikTok's most influential creators all in one place.”
Joe Kent's Strategic Approach to Trump
28:00 to 32:10
Discussion on Joe Kent's interview style and tactics regarding Trump.
“you know, I've raised this immediately and I said something similar about Tucker.”
Escalation Trap Analysis with Professor Pape
35:00 to 42:00
Professor Pape discusses the current situation in Iran and the escalation dynamics.
“We are fortunate to be joined again by Professor Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science at University of Chicago.”
Geopolitical Tensions and Strategic Analysis
42:00 to 47:29
Explore the complexities of the current geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz and its implications.
“Presidents don't decide until they decide.”
Show all 11 chapters
Tactical Challenges in Military Engagements
47:30 to 52:06
Understand the tactical challenges faced by U.S. forces in potential conflict scenarios.
“This is what I started the Substack to do.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human. I'm Bailey Taylor and this is It Girl. This podcast is all about going deeper with the women shaping culture right now. Yes, we will talk about the style and the success, but we are also talking about the pressure, the expectations and the real work behind it all. As a woman in the industry, you're always underestimated. So you have to work extra hard in a way that doesn't compromise who you are and your integrity. You know, I like to say I was kind of like a silent ninja. Listen to It Girl with Bailey Taylor on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:36On the Adventures of Curiosity Cove podcast, what if the right fit isn't what everyone expects? In the case of the right fit, Ella explores movement, confidence, and belonging, and learns that not all strength looks the same. This Women's History Month story introduces kids to women who change sports by trusting themselves and moving differently. Listen to Adventures of Curiosity Code every Monday from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:26and more. I'm an alcoholic. Without this group, I'm going to die. Listen to Sino's show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.
2:02We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com.
2:10Turning now to Tucker Carlson's interview with Joe Kent. So first, we're going to start here with some news at the top. Let's put it up here on the screen. Breaking from semaphore last night. Joe Kent is now under FBI investigation for allegedly leaking classified information. I'm told the investigation predates his departure. I'm sure it does. I'm sure, sure, sure that it does. You called that one immediately. Somebody actually tweeted out a clip of our segment and I checked the time. I think we recorded it eight minutes after he resigned and I was like, they're going to indict him. And I know the playbook.
2:45You know why? Because it happened to Dan Caldwell. And what happened with Dan Caldwell? The accused of being a leaker He was fired. They drug his name through the mud. And just yesterday, it was announced that he's been completely cleared of all wrongdoing and that the ODNI polygraphed and has restated his security clearance. He'll be allowed back into the government. So just so you're all aware about the last time they said somebody with some anti-war sympathies and accused him of being a leaguer. This is obviously complete bullshit. FBI, Keystone Cash, and all of these other people claiming that this is some, you know, oh, a leak.
3:20Listen, I knew it was coming. They cannot let this slide. Why? Because Joe is too important. He's too important. He's the biggest voice. Historically, no subcabinet official, remember, Senate confirmed, has ever resigned in protests over a war like not in Vietnam, not in Iraq. I mean, this is Daniel Ellsberg level of coming out and the courage to do so. I mean, look, no hate to Ellsberg, who I love, but he waited until the 1970s to come out. We're talking about in the mix. He said, this is a nightmare, a disaster, and I cannot in good conscience. It reminds me of some of the Watergate resignation, that kind of parallel.
3:56I mean, I don't believe this administration, and I think you're probably right that the allegations are complete bullshit that he is a leaker. If he did leak, though, I wouldn't blame him. I mean, he was banging his head against the wall, watching the, according to what he said and Marco Rubio and others have basically confirmed that watching the Israelis come in and lie to the president about what an imminent threat Iran is, blah, blah, blah. There was, according to Kent, and we'll play these clips for you in a moment, you know, there was a lot of debate leading up to the 12-day war. Leading up to this one, anyone who would have been a dissenting voice was just completely and utterly shut out.
4:31So if he wanted to try to influence the president, his only path would have been to go to the press. So, again, I'm not saying he did that. I remain very skeptical of these claims. But if he did, I would see that as a patriotic act of him trying to prevent what he knew to be a disastrous war, trying to get around this wall that had been built. And Trump is responsible for the fact, by the way, that that wall is built and that he surrounded himself with complete sycophants who were just telling him what he wanted to hear about how great this war would be and how easy it would be and how the regime would topple immediately, et cetera, et cetera.
5:05Yeah. So let's get actually into some of the clips here from the interview. E2, let's start with this declarative statement from a man with the highest security clearance in the United States government, national counterterrorism director as of a couple of days ago. Iran was not an imminent threat to the United States. Let's take a listen. Was Iran on the verge of getting a nuclear weapon? No, they weren't, you know, three weeks ago when this this started and they weren't in June either. I mean, the Iranians have had a religious ruling, a fatwa against actually developing a nuclear weapon since 2004.
5:39That's been in place since 2004. That's available in the public sphere. But then also we had no intelligence to indicate that that fatwa was being disobeyed or it was on the cusp of being lifted. The Iranian strategy, it's actually pretty pragmatic. The Iranians are obviously aware of what's taking place in their region. And their strategy was to not completely abandon their nuclear program because they saw what happened to Muammar Gaddafi in Libya when he said, hey, I've got no more nukes. I'll do what you say. I'll give up my nukes. And we gave him the Nobel Peace Prize. Yeah, we regime changed him and he was executed by his own people in the most horrific way.
6:15Oh, sodomized by a bayonet. Right. The Iranians position when viewed from the lens of the region was actually fairly pragmatic. They were preventing themselves from developing a bomb, but they still wanted the ability. They wanted the ability to enrich. They wanted the ability to have some components so that they weren't completely stripped of it. And we always assessed that they were either several months or a year, two years away from actually being able to develop a nuclear weapon. And that's not because the Iranians are stupid people. I think we can tell right now that the Iranians are anything but stupid.
6:46They had the ability, I think, that the the brainpower to actually develop one, or they could have simply traded a ton of oil with Pakistan or someone else to actually get a nuclear weapon. They were not doing that. We had no intelligence to indicate that they were. Does that sound like a bunch of religious fanatics who don't think, or what do they say? They're a theocracy. They want the end times. They hate us all very much. What do you hear from that? Highly pragmatic. You have people who respond to circumstances, thought very deeply about the types of decisions they were making, but most importantly, no imminent threat.
7:22No imminent threat. Okay. So what they said is BS completely. And I know that might be obvious to the viewers of our show in the hopes that this reaches many, many people. Remember that the Pentagon, the White House, White House press secretary, the president of the United States, the secretary of state, all of them have said that this is an imminent threat. And as Kent explains very clearly, the only imminent threat was Israel's imminent threat to the country of Iran, who was then going to attack Israel and, yes, the United States of America bases, which protects Israel. And as a result, we had to go in and preemptively strike Israel's preemption.
8:03When you put it that way, it's a real different imminent threat, isn't it? And I think that coming out of the mouth of somebody who had access to the intelligence, who was in the room, not for this one, but for the previous one on Midnight Hammer, and he went through some of that, I just have no other conclusion than you have a president who is completely captured here by Israeli interests and logic, and for whatever reason, he refuses to say no, as Kent says, is an option, and I'm not blaming Israel. Yeah, it's their fault too, but I'm saying Trump is incapable of doing this. He is incapable.
8:43And he has now shown us that. And if you listen to this interview and we're about to get to even some more shocking stuff around Charlie Kirk and all of that, like I do not have another conclusion than that. That is the only conclusion I can draw. He's terrified. He's either terrified or he agrees. I don't know what's worse. I prefer terrified because at least maybe we can get out of that. We still see Trump parroting these insane Israeli talking points. It was deeply disturbing to me when he said that the pro-government demonstrations in the street, that they were fake, that they were AI. And look, I don't know what he believes and what are lies or whatever.
9:19It seemed to me like he actually believed that or at least he believed it had enough credibility to repeat it to the American public. That comes directly from the Israelis. So there is no doubt the influence campaign that they successfully launched here. And I want to pair this, you know, Joe Kent's comments there about how no imminent threat, no, they were not developing a nuclear weapon. That is not what we assessed at all. With Tulsi Gabbard's testimony yesterday where she was asked about this as well. John Ossoff pressed her on, you know, listen, you said last summer this nuclear threat was obliterated, that their nuclear program was obliterated.
9:56So what's going on here? This is D1. Let's listen to that. That opening statement as submitted to the committee in advance of this hearing stated that as a result of last summer's airstrikes, quote, Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated, end quote, correct? That's right. And is that in fact the assessment of the intelligence community? Yes. So the assessment of the intelligence community is that Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated by last summer's airstrikes? Yes. In the opening statement you submitted to the committee last night also stated, quote, there has been no effort since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability, end quote, correct?
10:34That's right. And that's the assessment of the intelligence community. Yes. The White House stated on March 1st of this year that this war was launched and was, quote, a military campaign to eliminate the imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime, end quote. That's a statement from the White House. quote, the imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime? Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there was an imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime? The intelligence community assessed that Iran maintained the intention to rebuild and to continue to grow their nuclear enrichment capability.
11:13Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there was a quote, imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime? Yes or no? Senator, the only person who can determine determining what is and is not an imminent threat is the president. False. So she won't say it. She says, oh, well, that's not really my job. That's up to the president. The only person who can determine imminent threat is the president. No, not true. No, no, no. That's literally your job. Yes. That is your job is to determine, which she knows, she knows, but she's unwilling to just outright lie. So she dodges by saying, well, the president and all his brilliance and glory and magnificence.
11:49He is the one that we have to defer to. And only he can really, with his magical abilities, can really determine whether this was a threat to the United States. And I want to emphasize one other aspect of the testimony there in exchange with John Ossoff. He says, in your written testimony, you talked about how there had been no efforts since the nuclear enrichment was supposedly obliterated to try to rebuild their enrichment capability. That was in the written testimony. She chose not to say that when she actually gave her opening statement that was omitted because, again, that's very uncomfortable for this administration in all of their many layered lies and rationales for why we are now in this disastrous war.
12:31Yeah, and she's actually literally testifying as you and I are talking, and she just continues to say, she's like, the ODNI is not my personal view. This is the view of the intelligence community, and the president is the one who can make the imminent threat decision. Now, to the point that I made earlier about Israeli capture, Joe went into great detail about what that looked like inside the information environment in the lead up to this war. Let's take a listen. But I know how this works. I know the Israeli officials, some in intelligence, some in government, will come to U.S. government officials and they will say all kinds of things that we know from our intelligence just simply isn't true.
13:09And they'll say, hey, I'm giving you a preview. It's not an intelligence channel as yet, but here's what's going to happen. And that doesn't usually come to a question. Wait, wait a second. I mean, I thought that US policymakers made their decisions on the basis of intelligence collected and or vetted by our intelligence. That's why we have intelligence agencies that soak up hundreds of billions a year. But you're saying that Israeli officials short-circuited the entire US government and went right to American policymakers and said, it doesn't matter what your country says. Here's what we know.
13:42So what you're saying? I mean, usually they're pretty slick. Oh, of course. And they'll say, hey, this isn't in intelligence channels yet because it's going to take some time to get there. And here, they're on the cusp of building a bomb. You know, they're going to, I don't know, you pick your topic. A lot of times they'll sample different things until they find what sticks. Sample different things until they find what sticks. So it's not intelligence propaganda. He also talked about how he would hear things from the Israelis, and then on the next day, he would hear it on Mark Levin's show or in the Wall Street Journal or by Mark DeWitts, anybody from the Israel lobby.
14:13I mean, literally out of the book from Professor John Mearsheimer, who we just talked to. This is the Israel lobby, the most sophisticated lobby in, now I would say, the history of mankind, the co-option of a U.S. superpower. And that does not in any way absolve Donald Trump from allowing himself to be lobby controlled or whatever here by the Israelis. I want to make that very clear. But I think whenever we play this next one, honestly, this was the most shocking part. I plan on spending a decent amount of time on this. In our interview with Joe Kent, which is currently scheduled for tomorrow, is his discussion around the circumstances of Charlie Kirk's assassination and then connecting that to Butler and then connecting that to potentially why this war is happening the way that it is.
14:51E4, let's take a listen. Charlie Kirk is killed publicly in a very horrific way, and we're not really even allowed to look into that at all. And Charlie Kirk was one of President Trump's closest advisors, and he also advocated heavily against a war with Iran. He was in the Oval Office in the lead up to the 12-day war. I wasn't particularly close with Charlie. He was very gracious to me when I was running for Congress, very, very supportive. So we knew each other. And the last time I saw Charlie Kirk on this earth was in June in the West Wing, in the stairway. And I said hi to him, and he looked me in the eye.
15:28And he said very loudly, and it's a small – you've been in the West Wing. It's small. It's a tight space. And he said, Joe, stop us from getting into a war with Iran. Very loudly. He was single-minded. And he walked off and he went, I believe, into the oval. So when one of President Trump's closest advisors who is vocally advocating for us to not go to war with Iran and for us to rethink at least our relationship with the Israelis. and then he's suddenly publicly assassinated and we're not allowed to ask any questions about that. It's a data point. It's a data point that we need to look into. What do you mean when you say we're not allowed to ask any questions about that?
16:08We've been told that this individual, Robinson, is a lone gunman and maybe he is. But the investigation that I was a part of, the National Counterterrorism Center was a part of, we were stopped from continuing to investigate. And the FBI will say that they stopped that because they wanted to turn everything over to the Utah state authorities. Everything's going to trial. It's very, very sensitive. But there was still a lot for us to look into that I can't really get into. But there was still linkage for us to investigate that we needed to run down. I'm not making any conclusions. I'm not saying – No, I don't think you are.
16:43Because of this, this happened. I'm not saying that at all. I'm just saying there's unanswered questions. We know the pressure because of the text messages that have been made public that Charlie was under a lot of pressure from a lot of pro-Israel donors. And again, we know Charlie was advocating to President Trump against this war with Iran. I'll be honest, that shocked me. That shocked me. As you and I know, we're not Charlie Kirk conspirators. We're not Egyptian planes people over here. We covered that story at the time. The NCTC, Joe Kent himself was blocked by Kash Patel by the FBI. I don't know, man.
17:16And you listen to that, what conclusion are you going to draw? What does he keep hinting at? You have to read, I mean, not read very much between the lines, but he's saying, look, this is what Charlie said to me. He said, keep us from going to war with Iran. We know that he was under all this pressure from pro-Israel donors. There were some sorts of questions that I had based on, you know, tips or whatever until he had access to of a potential foreign nexus. and I was blocked from being able to continue the investigation. And they said, no, no, it's going to be just handled at the state level.
17:50And any of the queries that he made were just completely stonewalled. So, I mean, it's not, he's not just, he's heavily hinting at the possibility that he thinks, which is, I mean, this is truly, truly shocking stuff. For period protection you can put on and forget about, nothing beats Nick's leak-proof underwear. North America's number one leak-proof underwear brand. Let's face it, life can be unpredictable, but your leak-proof underwear shouldn't be. That's why millions of people choose NYX. For periods, for light leaks, for everyday freshness. NYX undies are super comfy, super absorbent, and made to handle whatever your day throws at you.
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19:12I'm Bailey Taylor, and this is It Girl. You may know me from my It Girl series I've done on the streets of New York over the years. Well, I've got good news. I am bringing those interviews and many more to this podcast. Yes, we will talk about the style and the success, but we are also talking about the pressure, the expectations, and the real work with the women shaping culture right now. As a woman in the industry, you're always underestimated. So you have to work extra hard, and you have to push the narrative in a way that doesn't compromise who you are and your integrity. You know, I like to say I was kind of like a silent ninja.
19:44Each week, I have unfiltered conversations with female founders, creatives, and leaders to talk about ambition, visibility, and what it really takes to build something meaningful in the public eye. Because being an It Girl isn't about the spotlight, it's about owning it. I think the negatives need to be discussed and they need to be told to people who maybe don't do this every day, just so they know what's really going on. I feel like pulling the curtain back is important. Listen to It Girl with Bailey Taylor on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
20:35TikTok Radio. Plus TikTok's most influential creators all in one place. Search for iHeartTikTok Radio, make it a preset, and stay connected all day. Shocking stuff. And look, it requires a lot of evidence. Yeah, no, let's be clear. The current evidence says what? Tyler Robinson shot Charlotte Kirk. Okay, and that's probably the case. The case that he is alluding to is about some potential foreign... And again, I want to be clear here. I would never make this statement without the evidence that we now have, which is an allegation made by the National Counterterrorism Director with the highest level of security clearance, who, as reported at the time by the New York Times, was blocked from any foreign connection investigation and is now bringing this up, not just...
21:20I want to be clear, too. In his Tucker interview, he brought this up organically. He did not bring it up after Tucker pressed him on the question. It was brought up in context of the Butler assassination attempt and this one. And in both cases, he said we weren't allowed to fully investigate either of those. I mean, and then he said, I think that President Trump could feel under threat. He is drawing a conclusion in his mind. He is drawing a conclusion. Now, if I do that, I'm a crazy person because I don't have inside information. I'm not in the situation room. I haven't seen all this stuff. He has, right?
21:53Yeah. And so based on that, I mean, man, like, what are we drawing conclusions here for? And I'm trying so hard not to go over the brink here, but this is, I mean, this is crazy. This is crazy. Well, and one of the things that has been speculated about how Trump, why Trump decided to get into this insane war was that he believed that the Iranians had been trying to assassinate him. And he said that he said something to the effect of I got the Ayatollah before he could get me. So it does seem like, you know, he had some some thought in that direction and that could be a potential motivation. This opens up another question if he felt under threat from the Israelis.
22:34I mean, that is what Joe Kent is hinting at here, very heavily hinting at here, that the threat that Trump could have felt to himself and his family could have been that he was worried about what the Israelis would do. And again, it's wild to even say this stuff. But when you have someone who was at this high level of government with access to information that he had, who is suggesting this, you have to take it seriously. There were a number of other things that he said that were extremely interesting. He talked a lot about how there were people who were posting things online who seemed to have foreknowledge of the plot against Charlie and the ultimate murder of Charlie.
23:16And that was something he wanted to pursue that also was not allowed to be pursued. So that was very interesting. He also made this comment about how one tactic of the government is that they will they will stop providing any information to the public about something that the public is obviously very interested in and about which there should be more information. The Butler assassination being one example, Charlie Kirk's assassination being another example. And he said this will be done intentionally so that you get a lot of really crazy conspiracy theories. You know, the Egyptian planes and the French foreign leave, whatever, like all that stuff.
23:51And then it sort of discredits other avenues that you might pursue outside of the official narrative. Because then you look like, all right, well, the official narrative seems more credible than whatever these crazy people are on about over here. So he identifies that as a tactic in connection with these two events, in particular Butler and then Charlie Kirk's assassination. And, yeah, I mean, the Butler thing is legitimately wild because here you have, you know, the guy who they tried to do was, you know, almost killed in Butler, Pennsylvania. You would think that there would be a fulsome look.
Read the full transcript
24:26OK, who is this guy and where did he come from? What were his motivations? And that was also shut down. and they did very similar to the Epstein files. Like, no, we looked into it, nothing to see here. We're all moving on. Yeah, exactly. And that's the point where, look, again, I would not say any of this if he hadn't said it. I really wouldn't. Yeah, we didn't do a lot of like Butler, you know, speculation or whatever. Didn't see much. Seems believable. Crazy guy, does research, wants to shoot Trump. I mean, okay, you know, it makes sense. John Hinckley, right? You've seen it before. Yeah. It's not a crazy situation.
24:56Country chock full of gums and mentally unstable people. One of them can get shot off. I mean, literally look at the guy, right? He's a loser. And so, all right, I believe it. But then the National Counterterrorism Director or NCTC Director, ODNI, highest security clearance in the world, exits the government and starts talking about it in the context of Trump's behavior vis-a-vis Israel. And you're like, holy shit, man. I mean, he is drawing a conclusion, which, look, he could be wrong, but he's got a lot more information than I do. And then he draws the Charlie Kirk situation into that as well.
25:25And he's like, maybe he feels like he's at threat. But, you know, another section, I don't know if you noticed, was him and Tucker talking about breaches in Trump's security. And so, you know, I hadn't thought about this. They talked about Code Pink, you know, being at a dinner. And we should actually ask Madea. We should just call her and ask her, Madea Benjamin, how she got out of it. How did you know? Because they were like, look, to us, that seemed like a huge crack in the president's security. And just to remind people who may have forgotten, you know, Trump showed up to have dinner at a local restaurant.
25:52and Code Pink activists had gotten a heads up that he was going to be going there and they were inside of the restaurant. They had a reservation so they knew it was coming. Yeah, so this was pre-planned. This wasn't just like, oh my God, there's the motorcade, let's go. This was a pre-planned protest, which is their right to do. But for the president's security, that obviously raises crazy questions about how did they get access to this information. And then he mentioned another time when there was someone who was apparently just like a fan, but who wanted a handshake and was able to get like, you know, to anticipate where Trump was going to be and be able to get right at him to get this handshake.
26:31Well, you know, it's a supporter, so no, there's no harm that was done. But again, this is a massive security breach. So he intentionally raises those two things. It's like, what is going on there? I'm looking at this now. This is from 2015. NYPD suspends detective who snuck into the Ryder Cup pretending to be on Trump's security detail. I'll be honest. I mean, both of these are crazy. I was part of the White House press corps and I had to go to restaurants when Trump would go dine. We didn't even know where he was going. They just said Trump is on his way to a restaurant. We're like, okay. You know, I mean, we could assume, we thought usually it's the Trump Steakhouse.
27:01So that's what we think, but we didn't know. So I was literally in the van behind the motorcade and I didn't know where I was going for context. So how do other people know where he's going? Who tipped him off? What their point, I guess what they're saying is that in all of these, they're pointing to various different like warnings. And look, I get it. This sounds like something out of a novel, like some Tom Clancy level nonsense. But he seems to believe it's real. And if he does, then maybe I should. And maybe all of you should. So, yeah, wow. I just don't know. I mean, I will say for Joe, it's pretty clear he wants to – he is desperate to try and get a message to Trump that you're being controlled by the Israelis.
27:40And he's, like, begging him for an off-ramp and to try to get out of this. That seems to be his main goal in resigning. He said at the end, you hold the cards. but I do think it's like a desperate cry for help. At the end, that letter saying at the end, you have the cards. He's trying to like shake it. He's like, you have the cards. Like you're in control. Yeah. That's scary. Yeah, well, and the last thing I'll say about it is, you know, I've raised this immediately and I said something similar about Tucker. Like I understand, first of all, I just want to say I really appreciate that I think it takes a lot of courage to resign and to speak out in this way.
28:14And his life is about to be upended if it's not already. Sagar immediately called it and sure enough he's under investigation, you know, threatened with indictment. They're going to do what they can to destroy this man. I don't think there's any doubt about that and so we should all be grateful to him for coming forward and, you know, making his concerns known. I think tactically he's decided, if you listen to this interview with Tucker, like he is very almost worshipful of Trump. Only Trump can get us on his negotiating skills and he's the whole reason why we had Iran at the table. And of course I'm listening to this and going like, this is the same man who tore up the nuclear deal to come in with.
28:48So come on. Right. But in any case, clearly this is his tactic that he thinks if he's just sufficiently praiseful of Trump and tries to, you know, word things properly so that his fragile ego isn't hurt and he gets the message in that he's being controlled and it's really not his fault and he could get that maybe that's the way to have influence. And I just I think that ship has sailed. I think at this point, you know, your best weapon right now in this fight is the full unvarnished truth. And because there continues to be very clearly a level of, you know, a layer here of, I don't want to say deception because that's too strong of a word, but he's holding back that criticism of Trump because he's trying to play this game of persuading Trump and it's still sort of an inside game, it does take some away from the power of his testimony.
29:42Because if he's sort of choosing his words and being, you know, not fully forthcoming in that regard, then of course it naturally raises questions for people. Okay, well, if you're not being totally upfront about the guy who actually got us into this war, then how can we trust that you're being truly upfront about these other extraordinary claims that you're making in this interview? So that just would be, that would be my view is, you know, I understand you're trying to preserve Trump's ego so that maybe he'll hear this message. I understand, you know, potentially you want to run for, or you want to, you know, maintain support and credibility with the Trump base and Trump is like a God, their cult leader or whatever.
30:20So that's tricky to walk, walk that line as well. But I think the most powerful thing you can do right now is just be fully, fully truthful. And yes, the Israelis have wanted this war. They have wanted this war for a long time. They've tried to manipulate a lot of presidents into this war, but this president is the one who said yes. And this president is the one who shut you out after the 12-day war and did not want to hear the other side anymore. This president is the one who took$150 million from Miriam Adelson. This president is the one who created a culture of sycophancy around him so that, you know, reportedly even, you know, General Cain, who he handpicked, et cetera, didn't feel comfortable enough really telling him and sort of use these proxies or hinted at what trouble could come with the Iran war.
31:13Trump is responsible here. He is not some victim of happenstance. He is not some poor baby lamb who had no idea and just got walked into this thing and there was nothing he could do. He is the most powerful man on the planet. He is the president of a nuclear armed superpower. And ultimately, yes, the Israelis were doing what the Israelis have long been doing. The responsibility lies with him. And I think that until there's full candor on that point, it will somewhat diminish the power of the rest of the testimony here, which is so vitally important as we face down what exactly this war is going to be.
31:49Fair. We'll see. I'll definitely ask him about some of this. As I said, currently scheduled to interview him tomorrow and premium subscribers. You can submit some questions and we'll maybe pick a few of them to ask Joe Kent. Again, it's tentative. Who knows? He literally could be indicted by the Trump administration hit with a gag order. But for now, that's the current plan. Okay. We've got Robert Pape standing by, Professor Pape. Let's get to it. For period protection you can put on and forget about, nothing beats NYX leak-proof underwear, North America's number one leak-proof underwear brand.
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34:46Plus TikTok's most influential creators all in one place. Search for I Heart TikTok Radio, make it a preset and stay connected all day. So for more on the escalation trap that Trump has gotten caught in in the Iran war, We are fortunate to be joined again by Professor Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science at University of Chicago. Great to see you again, sir. Good to see you, sir. Thanks for having me. Yeah, of course. So before we jump in, I understand you're having a briefing on this phase of the escalation trap. Just give people the details so that they can learn as much as possible about your framework.
35:19Yes, my substack is called the escalation trap. I started it a week before the war to lay out all the stages of what was coming. And I'm sorry to say we are right on track. We're moving from stage one. We're now deep into stage two and we'll be moving likely to stage three on Sunday. You can join my live briefing on Substack. It will start at 4 p.m. Central Time, 5 p.m. Eastern. This will be an hour. You'll be able to put questions in the chat. I will be able to respond. and then I will send answers to selective questions the next day to everybody who joined. So this is a very good way to stay ahead.
36:03This isn't just reacting. We're explaining what to expect. Right. And we will make sure to put the link in our description here as well so people can easily locate that. So we've been talking in the show about an extraordinary level of escalation here with the Israelis seemingly with the U.S.'s ascent striking the South Pars oil field in Iran, Iran, predictably, in response, struck significant blows to oil infrastructure throughout the region. How do these actions fit into your framework, sir? Well, they fit actually quite tightly. And our community, the listeners we had before, I understand a million views, have been able to follow things even before they happen.
36:44So the escalation trap starts with stage one, the smart bombs that hit targets, destroy targets, kill leaders, but don't achieve the strategic objectives. Number one, they did not weaken the regime, topple the regime. They didn't even move the regime to a dovish position. The regime is more hawkish, more dangerous now than ever because the new leaders are just desperate to attack more. and also the power of Iran has grown. So Iran in the last 19 days has grown from controlling 4 % of the world's oil to now 20 % of the world's oil. In fact, in the last 19 days, Iran has been shipping its oil out.
37:31It's made somewhere around a billion and a half dollars. So think about that, all that money to rebuild everything. And it's in Chinese banks, so we can't get it out. And now we also have the fizzle material, that nuclear material. Now we're in stage two, though. They've lashed back. I call that horizontal escalation. And this is what's been going on now for weeks. And it's not spasmodic. They're not running out of ammo. You see big blasts yesterday by Iran. And now the price of oil here is soaring. So we're in stage two very deeply. I've been explaining all this ahead of the time, all the way through.
38:13And we're in Iran, that horizontal escalation, it's economic warfare. It's going after the economic pillars of the Gulf states and the world, especially America, of course, and also the political pillars. And this is a long war strategy, an asymmetric strategy. They are not going toe to toe with us in conventional battles. That's why you can take the Iranian Navy off the table. It just doesn't matter. What's going on is they are not losing. They are gaining power in stage two. And that is sucking us toward stage three. We're not there yet. That's the ground force options. The Marines are about seven, ten days away.
39:00But middle of next week, there's a good chance we'll be on the cusp of major decisions here to cross that Rubicon of stage three. that's what I'm going to talk about, lay out in detail on Sunday. This has really become an escalation trap that's become a strategic disaster for the United States, for the administration, for sure, but also now for the world. Yeah, Professor, let's go ahead and guys, let's put F5 up there on the screen, just again, fitting into your framework. They say Trump has not made up his mind on sending Americans into Iran to seize nuclear material. This also apparently applies to any sort of operation to control the Straits of Hormuz.
39:45Again, as I understand that, that is stage three in your framework. You seem to think it's inevitable that some sort of ground force operation happens. Give us your reasoning as to why. Yeah. So let me also be precise about estimates. So I don't have a crystal ball. I do risk assessment. I would say that when you, I would use the term inevitable, but what I mean is 75 % likely. So I don't think it's quite a hundred percent because we live in the real world. Something could change, but we are heading in this direction. And every step of the escalation trap has been 75 % likely, and it has come to be.
40:22So this is now, these options here for President Trump. He needs time. The reason that he's talking, well, I'm not quite sure here or not quite sure there, is because he needs time to get those Marines there. He's basically killing time while he's waiting for the actual physical options to be available to him. There's probably also preparations happening, not just with the 2 ,500 Marines that are moving from Japan. That takes about 18 days or so. That's why the time frame, we can be fairly precise. But also the 82nd Airborne is likely preparing as well because they canceled some of their training about 10 days ago.
41:04And that is likely because that's also an option. And what I'm going to be explaining with maps and all this and so forth on Sunday is what we're talking about. And I would describe this as limited territorial control options, also to be precise. They're not probably going to be going to Tehran. That's probably not what we're talking about. And I've been saying, even before the war started, that stage three would be limited territorial control, Karj, coastal areas, Esafon. Well, we're going to go into all of that because we're now on the cusp of that. And by early next week, this is going to be front and center in front of President Trump.
41:45And I've advised every White House from 2001 to 2024, I realize everybody is trying to read President Trump's mind. This is just simply a mistake. And I realize Trump is mercurial, but it's not just that. Presidents don't decide until they decide. They really need to understand this, that we're in the middle of a real war here. This is not some technical military operation that they've pre-planned and he's got preset dates for go codes. These are really, he's on the horns of some very, very major dilemmas here. And if he crosses this Rubicon, my goodness, we could be seeing when, this is where the Vietnam analogy will kick in big time.
42:32So, so far it's been Kosovo. You hear my analogies, Well, they're going to start to change if we cross this Rubicon because we're going to be in a new set of escalation dynamics. And I'm also sorry to say, so far I've only told the world about stage one, two, and three. There is four and five if this keeps going. You see, so we're not, just because we're at stage three doesn't mean we've topped out of the risk. So let's talk a little bit more specifically about the Strait of Hormuz, which, of course, has become a central question and aim, frankly, of this war. We can put F-1 up on the screen. So reportedly, the U.S.
43:13used some of its new 5 ,000-pound bunker buster bombs to hit Iranian anti-ship missile sites right along the coast there. So that was significant. I also just wanted to put F-3, if we can, up on the screen here, guys, pictures of what this area looks like. I'm told that in the military, the geography matters here a lot. So you can see these sort of sheer cliffs along the side of the Strait of Hormuz. And so I was wondering if you could break down for us, you know, why is this such a difficult problem for the U.S. to solve? And why is it that all of our allies effectively at this point have said, listen, you got yourself into this mess.
43:52Good luck getting out of it. You know, we wish you well, but we're not going to send our military assets into the region to directly assist. Yeah, that was fantastic, those pictures. My goodness, I'm so glad to be on with you. Very few other people are really taking this so seriously to explain to the world what's going on. And also, just so people know, just a few days ago on my sub-stack, I put out the economic battlefield. And point one here is the Strait of Hormuz is becoming the center of gravity in stage two. It is now the center of gravity because of all the leverage that Iran is gaining from controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
44:36And I've already explained that in detail. But the geography here, in order to take territory with ground forces, the offense has to reveal itself. The defense can stay behind cliffs and in nooks and crannies. But if the ground forces are going to take territory, they always have to reveal themselves and be exposed to enemy fire. And what the more exposure, the more death, essentially. And what you are seeing with those pictures here is tremendous exposure. Now, I am sure I have taught for the U.S. Air Force here for years. I've just talked to the U.S. Army War College before the war kicked off a few days before.
45:24We have the best professionals in the world. They will do their best to find the best avenues of approach, to minimize exposure. That's the issue here, exposure, and to rapidly try to get through the most exposed times. The bottom line, though, is you just showed those images. My goodness gracious here. This is going to be a challenge, and this is like saving private Ryan territory. So they will try to minimize it, but the fact of the matter is the bad guys are going to know what the best approaches are, too. Remember, this is their home turf. So this isn't just they have the home field advantage for three points in an NFL football game.
46:07They really know the best approaches, and they've known that for decades. So the odds are there going to be booby traps? Are there going to be landmines? Are there going to be Xs and Ys here? Are there going to be surprises? Now, we may have some surprises of our own. I'm not saying we don't have things in our toolkit. I'm just pointing out that once we cross into phase three, this is now at the tactical level. So we've had the tactical advantage. I'll be explaining this. We've had the tactical advantage on our side. Once we go to stage three, the tactical advantage is likely to start shifting to Iran as well.
46:46And that is what we're talking about with the exposure. And it's not because we're dumkoffs. That's not the issue. We've got the best and the brightest here. And nonetheless, that's Saving Private Ryan is a good movie to watch this weekend. just the opening 10 minutes or or gallipoli right or i'm gonna exactly i was trying to save that you guys are i'm telling you this is really unbelievable how well you have done this because you're getting to the depth a lot of others want to just touch the concepts and and others are using the concepts are spreading like wildfire by the way but you're going and allowing the to understand and i'm just so appreciative of this.
47:31This is what I started the Substack to do. It's not just to have a word or viewers. It's to actually be able to educate because we're so hungry for understanding and we can actually do it. Well, it's because of people like you. We also wanted to put F1, please, up there on the screen, especially given your air power expertise. I'm curious for your reaction here. The United States used its new 5 ,000-pound bunker buster bombs to hit these Iranian anti-ship missile sites. This seems very consistent, sir, with your framework about the smart bomb trap. And I believe the intelligence around this would be, well, if we remove this, then we might have some sort of successful invasion, some sort of successful ability to move ships through the Straits of Hormuz, but we've learned because of your work and your studying that it's almost impossible to destroy all enemy capability.
48:27That's right. So what this tells me is several things. So number one, that 5 ,000 pound is a bunker buster bomb, it's called. It is designed to blow up underground bunkers that are about 20, 30 feet underground with concrete. And it very likely did that in this case. Number two, though, they're going after anti-ship missiles. Now, so far, Iran has not fired as far as I know a single anti-ship missile here, and they have many hundreds of these. And these are our ships, when they come forward on open water, are essentially giant metal that absorb attack because they're out in the water. There's not much collateral.
49:13There's not much to confuse the targeting mechanisms and so forth. So what this tells me is we are getting ready to move ships here and our amphibious ships through the Straits of Hormuz. Number three, however, is the Iranians likely have known that any fixed bunker is something that we can find and kill. So the question here is, do we have any intel at all that there was any anti-ship? The bunker was clearly there. But what about the actual anti-ship missiles? This is, and then the fourth thing is the mountains. So one of the things that you could show on the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of Iran, on Iran's side from Dubai, is the large mountain range that's right across from UAE and Dubai that goes on for many, many miles on the coast here.
50:06And what you will see is perfect terrain for crevices and so forth. So even if we know exactly where pinpoint it is, oh my goodness, knocking all of that out. And they only need to score one hit on one of our ships. So just think about it for a moment. We're going to have hundreds of folks, men and women, on these ships, sitting ducks, and they're going through the gauntlet. And we may knock out 98 % of what's coming at them. But they only need to have one, maybe two hits. And right away, you've got dozens, if not hundreds dead. And they're dead in the water. You see what I mean? There could be more coming at them there.
50:50And then how do you rescue them? So this really is, we may not have a tactical disaster. I can't predict that exactly, of course. But you're just up against the situation here where the other side only needs a handful of things to go right for them. They can have 95 % of everything go wrong. And this looks like, you're talking right, this looks like this World War I disaster called Gallipoli, which just persuaded the world that there was, anyway. So that was excellent, though. You really set it up well. Well, thank you very much, sir. We really appreciate you. Anything else, Chris? Well, I was just going to ask for a little bit of a preview.
51:28You mentioned, you know, you go on to stage four and stage five if you want to give us just a little bit of a glimpse. We're going to wait on that. I'm sorry to say, I think I've scared. I've been, I'm only doing it because I'm not doing it to just say the sky is falling. I'm doing this in advance of time when the horizon is really there. So I really would, there is more to say, but we will unfold it in advance, a few weeks in advance here. We're going to keep up that idea, but we're not going to keep then running it so that we have all these nightmare scenarios and so forth and so on. Because again, I want to do it as risk assessment as we go forward.
52:11And I think that's really what I'm seeing the audience is really valuing. That's what I'm getting in the feedback. Yeah. Well, we hope that if unfortunately we end up in those phases that you will rejoin and help our audience. Oh, my goodness gracious. I would be, you invite me. We should do this once a week. I mean, my goodness. This is just absolute. Thursday, this time, you got me. Just keep that in the invites. Okay, thank you, Professor Payne. I so desperately wish I had a professor like you in college. Oh, well, that's really quite, you haven't been graded by me yet. Wait till you get to the grading part.
52:49Not so easy to get the A's necessarily. Would have been worth it regardless. Thank you very much, sir. We appreciate it. We'll see you next week. Thank you very much. Okay, bye-bye. Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate you. As I said, we're going to have some of those questions you guys can submit if you want for the Joe Ken interview, which should be happening tomorrow. We'll see you all later. And there will still be a Friday show. Don't worry. So lots of content for everyone tomorrow. We'll see you later.
53:25I'm Bailey Taylor, and this is It Girl. This podcast is all about going deeper with the women shaping culture right now. Yes, we will talk about the style and the success, but we are also talking about the pressure, the expectations, and the real work behind it all. As a woman in the industry, you're always underestimated. So you have to work extra hard in a way that doesn't compromise who you are and your integrity. You know, I like to say I was kind of like a silent ninja. Listen to It Girl with Bailey Taylor on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Adventures of Curiosity Cove podcast, what if the right fit isn't what everyone expects?
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From the publisher
Krystal and Saagar Joe Kent sound off, Professor Pape on incoming ground invasion.
Robert Pape: https://escalationtrap.substack.com/
John Mearsheimer: https://www.mearsheimer.com/
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