3/23/26: Iran Rejects Trump Ceasefire Claim, Lindsey Graham Demands Boots On Ground, Massive Damage In Israel

24:03You know, we all know that at this point that 90 percent of the oil that's exported from Iran goes through Karg Island. Of course, there have been all kinds of reports in the U.S. press about potentially that or potentially an operation inside of mainland Iran to seize loose nuclear material. Is it possible that what Trump is doing here is not only a very obvious attempt to calm the markets, but is also another sort of ruse to get the Iranians to drop their guard while he prepares for this next phase of escalation? It may very well be that that is his intent. I don't see the Iranians lowering their guard in any way, shape or form under these circumstances.

24:43I think they have now been burned so many times that they're not going to trust anything this administration says. And again, this is actually why they're requesting sanctions relief. Let me just explain a part of this that I think is very important to understand why this, I think, is going to end up being non-negotiable from the Iranians, as long as they have leverage. If they lose the leverage, different story, obviously. From their standpoint, it is crucial, absolutely imperative that this is the last war. This cannot end in a way in which the U.S. attacks Iran together with Israel in another six to eight months.

25:18They're not going to accept or be able to survive if they end up becoming part of Israel's larger mowing the lawn strategy. The same thing they're doing against Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, but now on a much larger scale vis-a-vis Iran. Now, how do you then get to a situation in which you have a degree of confidence that you're not going to get attacked again? Are promises from the United States going to be sufficient? Is a non-aggression pact in and of itself going to be worth the paper that it has written on? I very much doubt that. They will seek those different things, but that will not be sufficient in order for them to believe that they have managed to prevent future attacks.

26:00Rather, it's going to be two other things. One, they want this war to be as costly as possible so that it will simply be absolutely clear to the U.S. and to Israel that it is not worth restarting this. If it was a mistake starting it, it will be a mistake restarting it. That's point number one. Point number two is that they need that sanctions relief to rebuild themselves. And rebuilding themselves is going to be essential in order to have the deterrence against the U.S. and Israel attacking again. If they don't have sanctions relief, after this war, they will be in a state of continuous weakening.

26:35And it is precisely the perception of them being weak that created this false window of opportunity to attack Iran. So unless they get the sanctions relief so they can actually rebuild themselves and have a deterrence, they believe they will be attacked again. So I don't see them backing down from the point of asking for sanctions relief. It's not just because of economic reasons. It is because it is part of the thing that gives a non-aggression pact some actual basis and meat to it. and as a result, I just don't see them backing down from that point unless they lose their leverage of course. The other problems are we have not talked about Israel once in this entire equation and they precipitate much of the violence that's actually even been happening, some of the most egregious strikes.

27:20So how can the Iranians, frankly, how can even the Americans at this point, the people, have any faith that our government would restrain belligerent Israeli action in any sort of a deal? Like if you're Iran, you don't just have to worry about the United States bombing you. You have to worry about Israel. And for example, we have a list of some of the demands that were circulating this weekend. Can we put, what is it, A7, please, up on the screen? So these are some of the demands that were going around this weekend of what some Iranian commitments they would have to agree to. No missile program for five years.

27:54I mean, that alone. Imagine you're in a war and somebody says, hey, to end the war, you have to give up all your bullets for five years. They're like, well, maybe I'd be better off just firing all my bullets. Number two, zero uranium enrichment, decommissioning of nuclear reactors, arms control trees with regional countries, no financing for regional proxies, strict outside observation protocols around the creation and use of a centrifuge. Notably, no word of sanctions relief. I mean, do you see any world where this country whose only reasonable deterrent is missiles would be even willing to give up their missiles for five years?

28:30Like, what could we possibly give them to do that? This is absolutely not going to take place. And the intent behind these demands, I suspect that they actually originally come from Israel, is to make sure that there is no deal. just as much as zero enrichment and all of those different demands coming from the Israeli side were designed to make sure that they sabotaged Trump's previous diplomacy and guaranteed war. This is a list of demands, at least the first three points, that are designed to make sure that there will be no ceasefire, there will be no end to the war. And the Israelis get what they are looking for, which is as prolonged war as possible in order to completely eliminate and destroy Iran's industrial base.

29:14to ensure that the balance of power shifts dramatically in Israel's direction and that Israel will not have to worry about Iran ever posing a challenge to Israel's designs for hegemony for the next three to four decades. And to have that achieved regardless of what the cost is to the global economy, to the energy markets, to regional stability, and to Trump's presidency. That is the Israeli goal and they will achieve that by putting forward demands that are completely non-starters. Exactly. I just wanted to ask you directly about this. There's obviously two competing claims here this morning. Trump is saying, oh, these talks are ongoing and they're very constructive.

29:54And the Iranians are saying, we have no idea what you're talking about. There are no talks. We don't want any talks. You know, do you have any insight or what would be your instinct of who is telling the truth there in that exchange? I know in previous instances in which the administration said that there were no talks, and that there were talks in the Iranian, said that there were no talks, that the administration was not being truthful there, that there were actually no. Now, the administration may have sent messages. They never got any responses. They may define talks as them talking. But reality is that there were no responses from the Iranian side.

30:29And I don't believe that there have been any responses in this specific instance either. But I want to go back to what I said earlier on. I do worry, however, that the Iranians may also at some point overplay their hands and not recognize the moment in which they need to cash in on whatever leverage they think they have in order to try to get to some sort of deal. I think it's very, very important to understand one thing. Neither side can pursue the humiliation of the other in this situation. If they do, they're just digging themselves deeper in a hole. Both sides need to be able to construct some sort of a narrative that allows them to exit this war.

31:14In that sense, however unlikely or, you know, frankly, lunacy may sound when I say this, but Iran and the United States are in some ways in the same boat. They will either sink together or they will roll to shore together. And pursuing some sort of humiliation of the other side, which was exactly what the U.S. did in the beginning of this war and sought the surrender of Iran was a huge mistake. It will be a mistake if the Iranians do the same thing. I want to just say one thing. Remember that the Iranians humiliated the United States 47 years ago with a hostage crisis. That was a huge mistake.

31:48It led to 47 years of sanctions, tensions, and eventually war. It would be a huge, huge mistake at this point if they also overplay their hand and don't recognize the right moment to go to the table, but to negotiate an actual good deal. Not one of these things that are just aimed at, you know, calming down the markets and prepare the grounds for the next attack during the next weekend or something like that. Yeah, I mean, that's why it's so difficult to see how you reach that Goldilocks moment where the U.S. is not completely humiliated, Iran is not completely, where both sides basically can declare mission accomplished in some way.

32:26Because I have to imagine the Iranians don't feel that they've come close to exacting enough pain to serve as a deterrence. And yet if they do that, then how is Trump going to convince a public that is already really opposed to this war that this was, you know, a grand adventure and that he came out on top? And add one other element to it, which is even if you find a moment that looks right, you have to recognize that these talks are not going to be like the 16-hour talks that it took or so to get to the ceasefire in June. Because that was an unconditional ceasefire. This is going to be more complex.

33:01So the actual time that that diplomacy may require may be 10 to 14 days in the best case scenario. and during that period, the Goldilocks moment may be lost. Totally agree, sir. As always, thank you so much for your analysis. Thank you for having me. I'm not sure I feel better, but it's always better. No one has said that after speaking to me. Thank you, sir. Thanks, Trita. Thank you. iVeam is built for losing weight and moving forward. iVeam is built for feeling your best and seeing results. iVeam is a medical weight loss program built for you. Their approach is individualized, virtual, integrative medicine.

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34:27When it comes to advancing your education, you have more options than you think. At Rasmussen University, they find ways to remove barriers, not build them, like a new laptop if you're eligible and enroll in select online or on-campus programs. That also means flexible and engaging online courses and resources, tuition savings options if you qualify, exceptional student support, and much more. Online nationally or check out their 20 campuses across six states. Start when you're ready and get the support you need. Visit rasmussen.edu. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously.

35:05On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's.

35:40Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash podcast. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Meanwhile, while we're on Taco Watch, we have to continue, of course, to pay attention to the thousands of U.S.

36:08ground troops that continue to move to the Middle East. And we have Lindsey Graham trying to set expectations for everybody here, taking to Fox News Sunday and saying not only should the United States take Carg Island, but comparing it to the Battle of Iwo Jima. Let's take a listen. Here's what I tell President Trump. Keep it up for a few more weeks. Take Carg Island, where all of the resources they have to produce oil. Control that island. Let this regime down a vine. Is this going to, though, take Carg Island? Is it going to involve U.S. troops on the ground? Let me just read you something from The Atlantic.

36:40Does an assessment on that. They say U.S. troops may well take Carg Island. We believe their ability to do so. But only to endure ballistic missile strikes, drone attacks, petrochemical smoke, all without a reliable means of obtaining logistical support. the result could be a grinding war of attrition. They talk about how far away they would be from resupply. I'm sort of tired of all this armchair quarterbacking. This has been an amazing military operation. God bless the fallen. But it's a difference when we talk about troops on the ground. I trust the Marines, not that guy. I trust DOD. We got two Marine expeditionary units sailing to this island.

37:16We did Iwo Jima. We can do this. We did Iwo Jima. We can do this. Anybody wanna tell me the casualties on Iwo Jima? We got about 7 ,000 killed and 19 ,000 wounded. Was that a, is that the similar stakes that are involved here in the middle of this expeditionary, you know, adventure, chosen. Excursion, as you call it. Yes, not even a war, it's an excursion. That's what Iwo Jima, I mean, it's being fluid. I think this is the perfect clip to show you how these individual Marines are just pawns on a chessboard to people in Washington. That they use the mythology of the heroism of the past to whitewash all of the ways in the post-World War II era that their lives have just been carelessly thrown into these wars of choice and adventurism, which accomplished nothing to the benefit of the United States as bled us dry blood and treasure.

38:13And meanwhile, the individual families who either lost somebody or have somebody wounded or whose family member was affected by PTSD, they have to deal with the wreckage. That's why this bothers me so much. Like this bravo, you know, bravado, chest thumping. Each one of those individual lives who was lost on Iwo Jima is not fodder for you to then claim some of their glory in order to advance your regime change war of choice, which has now been a total and a complete disaster. disaster. And I think it demonstrates how all of these service members have been treated now, the 13 killed, the 200, 300, who knows how many, who have been wounded now so far, the thousands that are already just being moved into the region for some sort of potential operation.

38:57But that is what they're now trying to prepare the American public for. And also, by the way, I should say this, Iwo Jima had a huge backlash here in the United States. A lot of people don't remember that time period. After clearly the war in Europe was either winding down or the armistice or whatever had been signed, well, the American public started asking some serious questions. They're like, wait, why are we taking tens of thousands of casualties out here? We need to wrap this up very quickly. And the Pentagon, or I guess the War Department or whatever at that time, was having a lot of conversations.

39:29How do we prepare the public for a ground invasion of Japan? So even in the conflict with the most bought-in U.S. public, whenever we were taking these level of casualties. They're like, whoa, we need to hold on. They're like, what's going on here? Are we sure this is necessary? The atomic bomb ends up happening and so everybody conveniently forgets Iwo Jima's casualties and Okinawa, but it was not like that domestically. And that, again, was a war where probably 90 % of the public were on board. People were really bought in on that war effort. And he wants to try and recreate this disastrous type of circumstance.

40:01We talked with Professor Pape about the parallels, Carg Island or the Straits of Hormuz. and we're talking about Gallipoli. These are like global changing events. The Aussies still remember Gallipoli. I mean, you know, like one of my tour guys when I did a World War I battlefield tour, like a hundred years later, their descendants still come to Gallipoli to see what their great-great-grandfathers had to go through. I don't think we should be going about that. I think we should do everything in our power to avoid some sort of a nightmarish situation. And this is the problem, is that they're so caught into this mythos.

40:34everything is always World War II. That's why, what do they say about the Iranians? What does Mark live in? Oh, they're Nazis, right? Everybody's always a Nazi. It's always 1938. It's always either Munich and our enemies are always Nazis. There's no in between. That's the only conflict that you're ever allowed to talk about. Reminds me, which Iranian official was it that posted online like, Americans remember well when General Westmoreland came and said things were going well. It was Arachi, the foreign minister. He said, Americans remember well General Westmoreland. And I'm like, sir, I wish we did.

41:05You are vastly overestimating us. I'm sorry to say, sir. I'm like, sir, I wish that were the case. A lot more Americans should know General Westmoreland's name, one of those villainous military figures in U.S. history. There's a handful of historical events that you could count on maybe most Americans remembering or having learned about. That's definitely not one of them. They don't make Saving Private Ryan movies about General Westmoreland. Again, literally one of the biggest liars in U.S. military. The most villainous military. Yeah, we like to sweep that one. Those don't get approved by the Pentagon, you know, script people who look at the scripts for Hollywood.

41:37Yeah, I mean, this is sick and it's disgusting. And it's also really important because this is not just some senator. Unfortunately, this is a guy who was extremely influential in bringing us to this point of war. There was a I believe Bloomberg did some digging into, like, how the hell did this happen? And, you know, the Mark Levins of the world, the Ted Cruz came out and also said he was really pushing in this direction. I don't know if that's true or not, how influential he was, but he's like wanting to take credit for this right now for some reason. So you had a handful of voices, you know, here in the U.S.

42:09And then obviously the Israelis, very influential as well. You had these media personalities, too. And then, you know, you had Trump high in his own supply after Venezuela and all those things came together to create this horrific, horrific set of circumstances. So when Lindsey Graham is out there talking, you know, he's saying these things directly to the president. The other thing that I'll say about, you know, the whole setup there is he's dismissing this analysis of like, oh, this is going to be really bad. And he's like, I don't trust that. I trust the Marines. Well, and I trust the military.

42:38It's like, well, the military, the ones that tried to tell Trump that this was going to be a disaster. You know, I don't know how forcefully it was done, but they had wargamed this out, you know, years ago, especially the straight of Hormuz part. And we're like, this is not going to go well for us. they saw all of the peril on the horizon, but he thought he knew better and wanted to listen to Israeli intelligence instead of U.S. intelligence, wanted to listen to Israeli war planners instead of U.S. war planners. And now here we are. The other thing I've been thinking a lot about, Sagar, is, you know, I really was resistant to this idea that you had of like, we should actually have age limits.

43:14But I am coming around to it because when you have these old men, childless, old men who not just childless like Trump is not childless talking about Bibi I'm talking about Trump I'm talking about the now the you know martyred Ayatollah I'm talking about Lindsey Graham they don't have to live in the world that they're authoring and they're thinking about I mean Trump talks all the time about whether he's going to get into heaven or not like clearly he's thinking about his own mortality I think Bibi is too Netanyahu is too and so they're willing to take extraordinary risks with the entire world because their major concern is like I want to be viewed as this, you know, great man of history, as this, you know, historical figure.

43:52And I really think in Trump's case, I'm not sure he cares whether it's like for good or for evil. He just wants to be remembered. He wants to leave his mark on the world. And he really doesn't have to give a shit what's going to come after because this man is not going to be on this planet for that much longer. It creates grave dangers. It creates a risk landscape that is truly, truly unacceptable for all of the rest of us. So I do genuinely think it is a massive problem the way these old men are thinking about their legacy and how they want to leave their mark versus like, how do I make sure that we are considering risks appropriately and not ending up in some sort of an insane nuclear escalation.

44:30There's a lot to be said. When we were talking with Trita Parsi, he was talking, I mean, you could tell he is very concerned that the Iranians will make a similar mistake to the US and that we will not try for some de-escalation. that they will not seize their moment, which will lead to their inevitable destruction. To your point, I don't think it's an accident that the youngest president in American history is the person who got us onto a diplomatic off-ramp, which basically didn't exist during the Cuban Missile Crisis. And, you know, sorry for the history lecture, but, like, it is important to think this was a person who literally broke his back on PT-109 and had to swim in the ocean carrying a wounded man, you know, his life jacket strapped in his teeth to try and save him.

45:10Now, it was kind of his fault. in the first place, but whatever. The point that remains is that while he's in the situation room, he was a guy who at that time was low level. I think he was like a lieutenant. And he's sitting across from these generals who successfully fought in the Second World War. And he's like, they don't understand the stakes of what it actually means to fight and to die in combat. And so for him, it was so important to seek that diplomatic off-ramp and to at least gamble and to try in the Cuban Missile Crisis, the famous responding to the first letter, not the second letter, and agreeing to some things which were anathema to the U.S.

45:43security establishment, the removal of Jupiter missiles from Turkey. That is the most courageous act, I think, in the history of the American presidency. It saved the world from Armageddon. I don't really think it's an accident that you had a very young person who was willing to reject the 60-, 70-year-old security establishment of the people who are around him. And you can see now very clearly, as it's repeated now all throughout history, yes, these older men, people like Lindsey Graham, people who are... Like, Lindsey wants his legacy to be total regime change in the Middle East. He has no children, and he's in his 70s.

46:14Like, this is it for him. He wants a Senate building named after him. By the way, unfortunately, the Senate buildings, two of them, Rayburn and Russell, are named after childless old men who their entire life was, you know, the Senate. And that's fine. But, like, of course, they didn't have anything to live for. They didn't have to live necessarily in the world of their making and of their consequence. Like, this is really important to the Ayatollah as well. He's 86 whenever he was killed, you know? And, yeah, I mean, he's just - Although out of all of them, he showed a lot more caution. He showed a lot of - And then his younger replacement is likely to not follow in those steps.

46:50See, that's the problem. His caution, he was too cautious to start a war and not cautious enough to avoid one. I actually think he was the worst of all wars. I mean, with old people, what do they do? They daughter and they're indecisive. And I think that's really, ultimately, I really don't think he's very blameless. I think he really made a lot of mistakes, especially in the last five years of his reign. They should have pursued a nuclear weapon. He wouldn't be in this right now. I mean, that's the reality. And as much as I hate to say that because I abhor nuclear weapons, I would love for proliferation to be rolled back.

47:20That's just not the reality we live in right now. Exactly. And last thing I do want to show everybody, too, is that before the taco, it's not like the American establishment wasn't sounding very, very bellicose. Let's put A9 here, Secretary Scott Besson, who is somehow the war defender on television this weekend, saying sometimes you've got to escalate to de-escalate. Take a listen. We are taking out their missiles, their missile systems, and the factories that build those missiles. And now the General Cain, Secretary Hegseth, are leading a campaign to destroy all the fortifications along the Straits of Hermos.

47:56Just to put a fine point on this, though, is the president in the process of winding down this war or escalating? Again, they're not mutually exclusive. Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate, Cruz. Sometimes you've got to escalate to de-escalate. Do not forget, as they covered on the Friday show, A-10, put that up there on the screen, that you just had American officials telling their counterparts in Israel there may be no choice in order to launch a ground operation to capture Karg Island. There could be various other schemes and plots that are afoot. There's another 2 ,500 Marines. Let's put that one up there on the screen that are currently on their way.

48:33They're not even going to arrive for three weeks. So don't, you know, this really could be a delaying action. You've got two of these marine expeditionary forces that are on their way to the Middle East. The one that's coming from Asia, they said it would take two to three weeks. That was about a week ago. So it's still on track. And this one, I think, also has to sail from the West Coast all the way to the Persian Gulf, which is going to take a little while. So we are in no way out of the woods here just yet. I want to make sure that we take that with a great assault. All right, let's get on to the nuclear section.

49:30When you sign up right now, you can get a one-month free trial. Start your personalized plan in minutes by visiting iveamhealth.com. That's I-V-I-M health.com. Subscription required medication labs and supplements not included. Results based on patients who completed the full iVeam protocol over 68 weeks. Individual results vary. Not all patients are eligible. Prescription medications may carry risks and should be used only as directed by your provider. When it comes to advancing your education, you have more options than you think. At Rasmussen University, they find ways to remove barriers, not build them.

50:12Like a new laptop if you're eligible and enroll in select online or on-campus programs. That also means flexible and engaging online courses and resources, tuition savings options if you qualify, exceptional student support, and much more. Online nationally or check out their 20 campuses across six states. Start when you're ready and get the support you need. Visit rasmussen.edu. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.

50:50It all starts with your prompt from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash podcast.

51:22Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC registered advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Turning now to some very troubling escalatory things that were happening before the so-called Trump taco. Again, let's not forget that it may not be a real taco. Let's start with B1. Let's put this up here on the screen.

51:51A very strange situation with a alleged strike on Diego Garcia. Attempted strike. Attempted strike. Yes, sorry. An attack on a base 2 ,500 miles away from Iran. The Wall Street Journal saying it signals more aggressive military posture for the regime. Iran brings Europe into range with missiles that were fired at Diego Garcia. We have a map just to show you all exactly how far away and the distance that it would be. It would be the longest IRBM that has happened so far in the war. A lot of people were using it as evidence of why we had to attack Iran in the first place, because it's like, oh my God, look at these madmen.

52:27They have long-range ballistic missiles. But there are still some very strange indications around the entire attack. Let's put B2 up there on the screen from the NATO Secretary General. The NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutt, says, quote, The alliance cannot confirm Israel's claim that missiles targeted Diego Garcia were Iranian intercontinental ballistic missiles. The other thing to note is that you really are not exactly aware of the leak because you have Israel allegedly claiming the strike from Diego Garcia. The Brits have been very cagey about it. There's been some anonymous leakage that happened to Reuters and a few others, and people are taking it as fact.

53:06Now, you could take that explanation a variety of ways. It could be the Iranians don't want to acknowledge the strike on Diego Garcia because, like they said, it would show some of the powers that they not previously had said that had not previously indicated they have. I'm not really sure why that would be. I would want to claim it if I were them because it shows a credible amount of deterrence, strength, ability to strike Europe if they wanted to. but maybe they don't want to yet open the box whenever it comes to that. The second part is somebody else did it. You can surmise who of who exactly would want the war and all that widening.

53:38And the third option is it wasn't a missile. It was a drone or some other sort of alleged attack. Or the fourth, I guess, is that absolutely nothing happened. Remember, there's still an information blackout. We have no satellite imagery. We basically know nothing in the last like five days or so, unless it came out of Israel or Iran. In the Gulf and everywhere else, even though there's still been attacks, the video has dried up to a trickle. They're threatening to prosecute people for tweeting out videos. So that Diego Garcia one, you might have heard it. Be very cautious with that claim. There is not any real evidence yet that it's actually happened.

54:08So, yeah, that is really important to say. The only evidence we have is from the U.S. saying that this occurred. We have no other evidence. There was no strike that actually hit the base. You had one, this is their claim, one that allegedly, like, failed halfway and another one that was intercepted. The Iranians are saying this was not us. That's their claim. And the reason that there is a good cause to be skeptical is because this has immediately given a propaganda talking point to proponents of the war who say, see, the Iranians were lying about the limited range of their ballistic missiles.

54:46See, Europe is at risk. Don't you see how we can't believe these people and we have to take them out because they pose a threat to all of the Western world? That's the, you know, what Bibi immediately began pushing all sorts of, you know, pro-war influencers in the U.S. They all began pushing that talking point. And when you have this, you know, this NATO dude who is a total Trump sycophant, even saying like, well, we can't actually confirm that it came from Iran. That to me was the biggest red flag of like, I don't know that this really even went down at all, let alone went down the way that they're claiming it went down.

55:20So in any case, possibly Iran has this longer missile range. That would be a very significant development. Or possibly this is all effectively a ruse to provide more justification for a war that is extremely unpopular and to help to cajole the European allies to get in the fight where they have been somewhat resistant thus far. So that's the reason to be really skeptical of these claims until we have anything more approaching definitive proof. And the reason why is that things are not going well for Israel right now. And there's every reason in the world to actually want to continue to justify the propaganda effort against Iran.

55:59Let's go and put the next one up here on the screen. Let's put B3, please. This was a very significant development that happened over the weekend. Iran said that the U.S. and Israel had attacked the Natanz nuclear facility. There actually have been a very limited amount of strikes, ironically, on the nuclear facilities across Iran. They said that the Natanz enrichment complex was targeted this morning. We don't yet know what any of the actual damage would be. They said, quote, there was no leakage of radioactive material that was reported and no radioactivity material was released. Previously had been targeted by Israel in the 12-day war.

56:36Now, the reason why this is very significant is because immediately what followed were massive Iranian strikes in Dimona, where Israel's secret nuclear program is alleged to be. Let's go and put some of the video up here on the screen. I mean, this is shocking stuff, right? Not only do you see a ballistic missile just striking deep inside, you also can see multiple instances of interceptors that were failing, not nearly the number of interceptors that originally are launched at some of these ballistic missiles. And you can see the direct strike that happened that was able to penetrate the missile defense systems in Israel.

57:16It was immediately followed up by, and let's go to B5 here, where Trey Yengst over at Fox News reported a mass casualty event in the city of Arad in Israel where at least 100 people were injured. Let's take a listen. Right now we're here in Arad where last night an Iranian ballistic missile slammed into a residential area. You can see the amount of destruction here. at least 100 people were injured, according to first responders. You can see the buildings here that were on fire. There is destruction for blocks. Right now, first responders are still combing through the debris, ensuring that there are no unexploded ordinances as Israeli officials arrive here at the scene to survey the damage.

58:01So there you go. That was the report there from Trey Yanks, who was on the ground. I think the two of these things we could take, first of all, the missile that allegedly struck in Damona, that missile appeared to show some evasive maneuver near the end. This was according to some independent analysis that I saw. That would be some of the more advanced weaponry that the Iranians continue to have. And so what can we take away from that? So they have the ability to target a secret nuclear facility. It's exactly tit for tat. You strike us, we strike you. We're able to penetrate your air defense. We're actually saving some of our more advanced missiles, which you claim 95 % have all been wiped out.

58:40If you combine it with the alleged Diego Garcia attack, you actually would see a much stronger Iran from where we are in the last, let's say, two weeks before, which would validate some of the analysis that we've heard here on the show about how they had sought to wipe out interceptor stockpiles and then reserve some of the drones and some of the ballistic missiles to target very selectively. And they have the ability to secret nuclear facilities, specific bases, Patriot missile batteries, THAAD interceptors, like any of these places, which are very pinprick strikes but designed to inflict maximum damage and to deliver a major strategic message.

59:14So that's why I think these are very important. Israel very clearly is in a hurt position right now. They do not want to be in a place where their nuclear facility or their cities are taking strikes where they even had to issue an apology to the population in Iran, being like, the interceptor didn't work. We're sorry. I mean, this is not what you saw in the opening days of the war. And it's clearly a sign of desperation. We know for them, I mean, the whole Genghis Khan quote from Bibi and all that, like, you only know which way that that's going to go in terms of their own response. They're going to say, OK, we have to have a total war.

59:46Yeah. Try and drag the U.S. into a ground invasion. Yeah, that's exactly right, which is why it's important to keep in mind, even if Trump does want to taco, it's not only Iran that gets a say in that, it's also apparently Israel. Let's go ahead and put B6 up on the screen. This underscores your point about the messaging coming from the Iranians. They're claiming for the past three weeks our operations were maneuvers to explore the weaknesses of Israeli air defenses. Today we control Israeli airspace. No one can intercept Iran's missiles. I mean, I think that's, you know, obviously bluster and over the top, but it does appear that as their number of launches have kind of declined to a lower steady state, they're able to inflict more damage.

1:00:26So more of their missiles are finding their targets. Now, also important to underscore, they did not actually hit the nuclear facility in Dimona. Was that intentional? Was it meant more to just send a message of, hey, this is something we could do if we want to. look how close we're able to strike or did it miss its target? That's open question. But, you know, the other thing that I think is really significant here in terms of the Israeli saga is there has been lockdown censorship in Israel about showing some of the damage and showing, you know, these missiles in the sky, et cetera. Now you have, you had, you know, Trey Yinks there on the ground.

1:01:04You had Netanyahu touring some of the damaged sites, talking openly about the level of casualties, etc. So there has been a shift in their propaganda approach, which I think is also really noteworthy. And you have to ask why? What made them decide that they're going to acknowledge some of the damage that has been inflicted and acknowledge some of the civilian casualties? And we'll get to this later. We'll hear more from Netanyahu later about like, oh, my God, the civilians, which is just, you know, to hear that man pretend to care about civilian life is just beyond disgusting. But I do think it's interesting to know.

1:01:38Some people are saying, well, what are they preparing for? You know, what are they trying to prep the ground for by acknowledging these, you know, strikes that did, in fact, inflict civilian damage and inflict, you know, casualties on civilians there within Israel. So I think that's another important piece. Yeah, I mean, we're setting the stage here for our eventual conversation about Bibi later on in the show, because obviously he's making crazy claims. They're trying to widen the war. By the way, just came across the wire. Despite Trump's taco, the Israeli Air Force has began a wave of air strikes against Iranian infrastructure sites.

1:02:12Against Israeli infrastructure sites? Sorry, no. Israel has begun a wave of infrastructure targeting in Iran, literally after the Trump taco. So almost an hour later, yeah, the Israeli Air Force is striking Iran. We know that. Because they had struck their infrastructure last night as well. And I'm saying they're continuing again this morning. Just to keep everybody, sorry, you know, the show, everything is moving fluid. Well, and here's the thing. I mean, this is why, like, you know, Trump loves to play this game. And I do think it's the same game as what Biden would play with Israel, too, of like, oh, I'm so mad at Bibi, blah, blah, blah.

1:02:45And over and over again, we get the same thing. And Trump plays the same game. And so, you know, I look, it's possible Israel's freelancing, but I think it's more likely that there's a coordination here where Trump wants to keep his hands clean, but still allow the damage to be inflicted on Iran to keep the, you know, to keep the pressure on and, you know, keep sort of manage the escalation by pretending that he's innocent of whatever the bad Israelis are doing. And oh my gosh, I'm so mad at them for doing this. But I would be surprised if they didn't have some sort of green light, or at least not a red light from the US in these type of attacks.

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