3/26/26: Trump Econ Numbers Flop, Oil Spikes, Professor Pape Dire Warning, Cuba Makes Offer To US

25:19So if you want to deal with us directly, no problem. And so what looks like it happens is someone came in and convinced Trump of this idea that this was like a gift to him, that they were letting these tankers through when this has always been the policy that they have announced from the onset. Maybe we should just let it stay on that. Let's let him believe it if he needs to. I don't think he's watching the show anyway, apparently, because I'm not sure we'd be getting this decision making. I don't think he wants to hear what we have to say. Let's get to D3 then. Let's put this up here on the screen.

25:48At the same time, there has been major movement in the energy markets. At least 40 percent of Russia's current oil export capacity has now been halted as a result of Ukrainian attacks. So we actually, this is so ironic. The United States is now literally selling, arming, or enabling the closure of oil across the world in Ukraine vis-a-vis their attacks on Russia and also our current attacks on Iran. You can't even make this shit up. Now, why would the Ukrainians be doing this? Well, they're mad because the Russians are making billions of dollars right now after the United States lifted sanctions on Russian oil that was already at sea.

26:29The Kremlin has booked billions from India who is already gobbling up as much Russian oil as they can. I also want to make this clear. The Ukrainians right now are in a desperate spot because literally just this morning, the news broke that current deliveries that were supposed to be made to Ukraine are very likely going to have to make their way to the Middle East. A lot of these are interceptors, Patriot batteries, munitions, other things that have been very useful to the Ukrainians, which the U.S. has continued to supply, even though we said we weren't going to do that. Well, a lot of those deliveries are now currently having or at least considering being rerouted for the conflict with Iran.

27:09So that would leave Ukraine less defenseless. So the only thing that they're trying to do is use their drones to attack all of this Russian oil infrastructure and to make sure that the Kremlin won't make a lot of money. Here's the thing. Ukraine doesn't care if we all pay more at the gas pump. They're in an existential war of survival. But for the rest of us, this is a disaster. We're literally enabling the Ukrainians going after the crown jewel currently of the Russian economy, the only reason that they're even still in this fight. So thank you, Ukraine. I also want to mention, the more desperate they get, there's some crazy shit that they've been up to.

27:42So you probably haven't seen this story. In India, they arrested a bunch of Ukrainian nationals and a U.S. mercenary, this guy named Matthew Van Dyke. who I actually knew from back in the day, is old mercenary. I used to talk to him on Twitter because he was a good source. Well, it turns out he was arrested by the Indian government for allegedly trying to train Indian separatist groups with a bunch of Ukrainians to conduct drone warfare inside of India. So who is the number one buyer of Russian oil? India, all right, right? Ukrainians are very upset with. Ukrainians are using drones to lash out and to go after all this oil infrastructure.

28:16The more desperate that they get, they could be up, you know, Nord Stream, which they obviously did with our help, we should be worried because for them, if they see the arms deliveries start to dry up and all this money going to the Kremlin, that's where they're going to do the craziest stuff. This really worries me. And there's new reporting that we are, I mean, predictably going to shift some of our resources from and military equipment from Ukraine over to the Middle East. And yeah, I mean, Russia has been one of maybe the biggest beneficiary of our war on Iran because they're able to sell their oil at a premium.

28:48We lifted some of the sanctions that are letting more countries buy their oil. So yeah, the Ukrainians are seeing that and going, okay, we've got a big problem. So now they're trying to take more barrels of oil offline. I was just looking at a Wall Street Journal article. The other problem is that previously in different energy crises, LNG was kind of the backup. But the backup itself has been degraded and is under threat. The Wall Street Journal writes, a war in Iran has fractured every node of the regional LNG supply chain. Iranian strikes on Qatar, one of the world's top LNG producers, have damaged its Ras Lofan facility, knocking out some 17 % of its capacity for up to five years and delayed the country's massive expansion plans.

29:29On Tuesday, Qatar Energy declared force majeure on some of its LNG supply contracts, including customers in China, South Korea, Italy, and Belgium. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which usually carries around a fifth of global LNG, is paralyzed by our confidence and Gulf supply has also been undermined. Then they say, even if, even if Trump and Iran agree to end the war soon, the consequences for the LNG market will be long lasting and even more profound than for oil. So even if it ends tomorrow, they're saying this is gonna reverberate. I also saw an estimate today of inflation, significant inflation already based on where we're already at in the war for the year.

30:07And you, the current track, remember, let's take Iran at its word. who knows if they'll be able to achieve it. They want$200 a barrel. So let's put D4 up here on the screen. There's been some interesting movement, actually, and I do want to flag this. There actually has been an overall decrease in the price of physical oil. And the reason I'm flagging it is there's no real explanation as to why. There is some theory that there was a single buyer that was bidding up the price, and now it's coming back down to reality, which is where around $110 a barrel, which is roughly where the price of Brent is right now, like at$100.

30:43And I think what is West Texas, something like$80,$90 per barrel. But the bigger issue is that the physical supply problem does eventually have to catch up with market. And the current expectation for a lot of these markets is that all of these signals from Trump about, oh, we're going to back down, or we're going to have some sort of deal. It's the jawboning from the administration, from the Israelis about potential ceasefire. All of that is to buy them as much runway as possible. And for some reason, that's what a lot of people believe. But at the end of the day, the LNG and the oil math will eventually catch up in some respect to where things are.

31:21And even though that may not result in 200 a barrel, if we're going to live for the next two years at 90 to 100 to 120, something like that, it's still really bad. I mean,$4 a gallon for gas for years is a serious economic problem and actually will cause very high inflation, not to mention the jet fuel problem I talked about earlier, as well as diesel, which remains well over$5 a gallon. Actually, to this point, let's put D5 up there on the screen. They make this exact point in the New York Times. High oil and gas could outlast the war with Iran. He's promised rapid relief. Americans will feel the financial sting for some time after it ends because they point exactly to this massive increase in oil price, as well as diesel, with no real supply that will be able to make up all of the backlog in the near or the interim period, especially with a global commodity.

32:11You can do your best with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with gas taxes, and the Jones Act and all that, but it's just not going to be able to do very much. And our own aging infrastructure has a problem. Let's put D6 up here. Many of you may have seen this. The Valero Port Arthur refinery had a big fire at the diesel hydro treater. I don't know what that is, but I did ask around. It's like a specific, very important part of the actual refinery. Remember, we have not built any new refineries in the United States in decades. Most of them are operating on very old technology. There's a lot of environmental regulations, et cetera, around it.

32:51So we're super reliant on a very few number of refineries, which are not in the best condition. And so whether this is an industrial accident, industrial espionage, who knows? We have no idea. But it is something, and of course, it's an indicator, especially at a time when we're out here threatening the entire energy infrastructure of all of Iran. That's what's scary. It's another vulnerability. So in a filing, they said it was due to an unforeseeable release of process fluid in complex two. So whatever that means, some sort of industrial accident. But in any case, the refinery issue is also the reason why even if an export ban was implemented, and it likely wouldn't solve the problem for us and obviously would completely screw the rest of the world because we just don't have the refinery capacity to deal with the specific type of oil that we have here in the US.

33:41Last piece here, let's put D8. We've got new Iranian threats against the Red Sea was the other one, which obviously a very significant thing to watch and another escalation potential that they obviously have. In any case, this is the decline in crude oil exports across any number of countries. So Kuwait is down 72%. Iraq North is down 49%. Iraq South is down 76%. Saudi is down 52%. And then you have some increases, some small increases in from Iran, LOL. Oman plus 7 % and Russia plus 14%, although I suspect that will be hindered by this Ukrainian attack. But in any case, this is comparing this month versus the first 23 days of February, 2026.

34:30So month over month, how are we looking? That's the reality. And you can talk a good game as much as you want. You can do as much market manipulation as you want to try to do if you're President Trump and Scott Bessent and the rest of the team. But at the end of the day, this is a physical good that has a tangible reality associated with it, unlike most of the stock market. Exactly right. All right, let's get to Professor Robert Payne. you standing by. Iveme is built for losing weight and moving forward. Iveme is built for feeling your best and seeing results. Iveme is a medical weight loss program built for you.

35:06Their approach is individualized, virtual, integrative medicine. 99.2 % of patients who completed the Iveme weight loss protocol achieved meaningful change, dropping an average of 45 pounds. Iveme built for your wellness journey. Iveam built for real life. When you sign up right now, you can get a one-month free trial. Start your personalized plan in minutes by visiting iveamhealth.com. That's I-V-I-M health.com. Subscription required medication labs and supplements not included. Results based on patients who completed the full Iveam protocol over 68 weeks. Individual results vary. Not all patients are eligible.

35:51Prescription medications may carry risks and should be used only as directed by your provider. When it comes to advancing your education, you have more options than you think. At Rasmussen University, they find ways to remove barriers, not build them. Like a new laptop if you're eligible and enroll in select online or on-campus programs. That also means flexible and engaging online courses and resources, tuition savings options if you qualify, exceptional student support, and much more. Online nationally or check out their 20 campuses across six states. Start when you're ready and get the support you need.

36:28Visit rasmussen.edu. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Baja Mar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, the richly refined Rosewood, the playfully hip SLS, and the stylishly modern Grand Hyatt. With over 45 restaurants, bars, and lounges, Baja Mar serves up delicious dining from world-renowned chefs like Daniel Balloud and Marcus Samuelson, nightlife venues like the new Jean Batiste Jazz Club, and the Caribbean's most luxurious casino. At Baja Mar, you'll find every pleasure under the sun and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like Baja Bay, our 15-acre lush tropical water park, interactive wildlife experiences, including our daily flamingo parade, world-class golf, tennis, spa, and so much more.

37:21Visit BajaMar.com today and discover a vacation destination where memories are made for a lifetime. Baja Mar, life spectacular. spectacular. Joining us again is Professor Robert Pape over the University of Chicago. He is also the author of The Escalation Trap on Substack, a great Substack, which we highly recommend. We have a link down in the description. But he's joining us once again to talk specifically about the theory and framework which he has invented and now popularized, The Escalation Trap, and how many of the current events in Iran fit very specifically into the frameworks and systems he's laid out.

37:57So, sir, first of all, thank you so much for joining us again. It's great to see you. It's really great to be here again. And thank you for all the explanation here that we're able to give to this audience. I see a hunger for this and I really appreciate what you're doing. Of course. And likewise, because we wouldn't be able to do it with somebody like you. So we did actually flag a very interesting segment that former CENTCOM commander, Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis actually gave at a recent conference where he warned very much of how you should not confuse targetry with strategy. Let's take a listen to what he said and we'll get your reaction.

38:33A situation where targetry never makes up for a lack of strategy. And by that, I mean 15 ,000 targets have been hit. There have been significant military successes, but they are not matched by strategic outcomes. Now, some of the strategic outcomes early on, unconditional surrender, regime change, we're going to dictate who the next supreme leader is. Those were clearly nonsense. Those were delusional. Clearly nonsense and delusional. Professor, these are sobering words from the former Secretary of Defense here, Jim Madison. How does it fit with the current option set that we have in front of us for what's going to happen next in Iran?

39:16Well, what we are watching now is not a path to peace. It is the escalation trap. Both sides, I believe, Iran and the United States, believe they're managing this conflict. However, they are heading into a wider war, a longer war, and a more disastrous war. What you're seeing with Secretary Mattis is an indicator. He almost never speaks publicly. And when he speaks, he almost never criticizes his former boss, President Trump. So the fact that he's speaking at all and criticizing Trump is important. Second thing to note is this framework that I've been offering here, the difference between tactical success and strategic success.

40:10I think in part to your program, other programs, the Substack, this is helping to make sense of what otherwise appears chaotic to so many people, which is how can our bombs hit targets and yet we're getting sucked into what appears to be this wider, longer war, the administration asking for$200 billion more. How does all that make sense? Well, these simple frameworks that I'm offering, you're seeing it's not just helpful for me, not just for a professor. It's really helpful to make sense of what's otherwise just a confusing situation. And he's using them. Let me go ahead and get your reaction to this new report that just came out this morning from Barack Ravid, who is very close with U.S.

40:59officials and also Israeli officials, usually sort of prints the things that they give to him. And so it says here, Pentagon prepares for massive, quote, final blow of Iran war. The idea here seeming to be another, you know, escalate to de-escalate idea. They floated four different options. Number one, invading or blockading Karg Island. Number two, invading La Roca Island that helps Iran solidify its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Number three, seizing a different strategic island named Abu Musa and two smaller islands, which lie near the western entrance to the strait and are controlled by Iran, but also claimed by the UAE.

41:32And number four, blocking or seizing ships that are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Hormuz Strait. They also theorize that there could be some sort of an option to try to go in and seize loose nuclear material, which is something we have heard before as an idea. So what do you make of this report? And also, how does it fit in with the claims from Trump that, oh, we're negotiating with the Iranians and Netanyahu apparently leaked to his press that, oh, we think there's going to be a ceasefire this weekend? So what this is, is very strong evidence that we're heading towards stage three of the escalation trap that I outlined on the sub stack days before the first bomb fell.

42:19So I explained stage one would be bombing, attack the leaders. We would hit target, likely kill leaders. Stage two would be Iran would lash back. And they've now lashed back, not just hitting the GCC countries, but taking the Strait of Hormuz. They are more powerful than they were before, both dangerous and powerful. And then I said this would drive us to stage three. And I said it would be framed as limited, limited territorial conquest. And that idea of limited, we should understand what that is, is not anything like a final set of moves. That's the beginning of stage three, which will then become irreversible.

43:05The true red line here that makes it really impossible to walk back from is going to be any of those options you just laid out that now they're going through. And it doesn't really matter which one, because all of them are going to include deaths by our troops, much more than we have. And as those troops die, and we will try to keep this to a minimum, I've taught for the U.S. Air Force, I have confidence we'll try. But as they die, the 35 to 36 percent of the public supporting this war will harden. They will themselves psychologically double down. This is what I deal with. I deal with action and military action and politics, not just in the enemy country, but in our own.

43:52And this is how you get that hardening, because that 36 percent will say to themselves, quietly or publicly, those 100 or 200 marines, 80 parachuters died for me. And I don't want their deaths to be wasted. That's how you get the continuous double down. That's how then this becomes really politically almost impossible to stop. And you end up with likely something like starting with a limited operation that expands to perhaps a three to six month war of attrition. That is where stage three, that's that red line of stage three. I've been laying this out and you're seeing strong indicators that this is not a path to peace.

44:40We're heading right to stage three and stage three is a cliff and it is not like the other stages. Each of these three stages is a phase level, not just more attack, phase level of the escalation trap. And this will be the key red line. Professor, I've been thinking about you so much, especially with those words, final blow. I'm like, oh, I've never heard that before, except in every conflict ever. You have a tweet here, E6, we can put up here on the screen, which is North Vietnam, how they were able to use negotiations to deepen divisions in the US. I'm just wondering if you You could lay out the historical parallel of where we are to that political aspect of our population.

45:26There are so many parallels to the Vietnam War. It's stunning. Pete Heggs sounds just like Robert McNamara, where the Pentagon inching up, ratcheting up, moving up the escalation rung. We're just about just one more blow and we will find the breaking point. That was the famous phrase used with McNamara and the Johnson administration in the Vietnam War. We're going to get their breaking point. Well, notice this is exactly the same rhetoric, almost word for word, out of the president and Pete Hegsa. And then if you look at what is occurring at each stage of the incremental escalation, which we swore we would never do again, At each stage of the incremental escalation, you have tactical success.

46:17We win a tactical outcome, but we don't get a strategic outcome. The other side is not collapsing. It's, in fact, hardening. It's doing things to hurt us in really powerful ways. And even worse than the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese never controlled 20 % of the world's oil. So this is Vietnam essentially on steroids now because you have not just the escalation dynamics of the Vietnam War playing themselves again right in front of our eyes, but the stakes are much bigger than the Vietnam War. And it's because Iran has a grip on the throat of the world's economy. 20 % of the world's oil is huge. And what have they been threatening just in the last 24 hours?

47:09They're going to expand that to the Red Sea. They're now saying, and it could be with the Houthis. Keep in mind, a year ago when President Trump did a one-month air campaign against the Houthis, he failed. He's had to give it up and say, oh, can't beat the Houthis, going to have to go find something else. So this isn't like we can't we haven't beaten Iran and the idea that now we're about to beat we haven't beaten the Houthis yet. And now they are on deck here. So think about this. They're on deck. That's another five, seven percent of the world's oil. This is now we're we're we're not going to be able to talk down the price of oil much longer at this rate.

47:48Let's put E5 up on the screen because you're talking about the political dimension of this, which obviously is extremely important. And we have, you know, we're already in midterm season. There's all kinds of primaries going on. People are picking their candidates. You know, it is truly right around the corner. And to your point, the war is already very unpopular. And usually, usually wars are actually pretty popular when they start. It's only later that they become unpopular. But you can see the opposition number ticking up day by day. At the same time, we talked about this some earlier in the show, President Trump's approval rating is ticking down day by day.

48:20There was a new poll that had him out at a new low of 36 percent approval rating. So as you know, if we move into this next stage, you're saying that the support that exists for the war will harden. What about with the rest of the public? What would that look like? It will fracture even more. So I realize you may not know, but in September, I have a big book coming out about American political violence. And my nightmare scenario has been for several years that we would have this trajectory of what's happening in America domestically. And you can already see we had Chicago, Minneapolis, et cetera, et cetera.

49:02And a mega international crisis like Iran happened at exactly the same time. And what you are seeing here is the evidence that this was a real this was this was right to have the fear. because that chart you just showed, that's historically unprecedented here, as long as we've been doing polling. Now, we don't know what happened before the 1930s, so we don't have polling going back that, you know, 150 years or 200 years, but nonetheless, if you go back here to when we started polling, we don't see that the American public normally rallies around a president when they use force and has in all these other cases.

49:43And air power in particular, there's the promise of quick victory, no cost. So you tend to get even more rally around the flag with air power. That's not happening here. So we're starting already. And what's unfortunately we're heading toward. And this is, if we go off a cliff internationally, there's an iceberg we're going to hit as a country in the fall. That's what I'll be talking about then, because I will explain we're heading to what I call fractured legitimacy, a new term. So remember, I do the frameworks. You're about to get a new framework, I'm sorry to say. And it's the books already coming.

50:25They're already being printed. They're already coming out. It's the new press. So they'll be very glad I'm telling you about this right now. They're waiting for me on the other end of this call. And so I'm just pointing out that unfortunately, this is not just simply another international problem. It's actually the worst international problem. This will be bigger than Iraq. It could be more costly in American military lives than Iraq. That was 4 ,400. But it will surely be more costly geopolitically and with the world economy than Iraq. And so what we are heading toward are these lines crossing in September.

51:13And this is really unprecedented for our country, beyond unprecedented. So I'm very concerned about those numbers. Yeah, just thinking off of the top of my head, like some historical parallel, what are you thinking? October 1917? You know, Russia? Like World War I? I mean, I don't want to go crazy. No, I'm going to explain that. Again, you're trying to get me to get the book out. I understand. No, I don't. No, the nightmare scenarios, people are talking about the Civil War scenarios here. They're just not helpful because they're not realistic. The movie, you know, battle after battle. So what we have here right now is you have people that are novelists.

51:55You have people following this. They're making money on this. here. You just don't have the escalation framework person or people who've been focusing on that for 30 years. You have people who say, oh, I can catch that. I can catch that wave. This isn't what this book is about. This is not a Johnny come lately. I've been working on this book for five solid years. And that will be clear with all the data. There will be five years of opinion poll data that I've collected here. And we have, nobody has that 20 years of, 20 national surveys over five years on the support for political violence in the United States.

52:37So, so again, this isn't just a quick book to kind of catch up to a wave. You will see when the book comes out, this is a complete, this, this is again, like the escalation trap. What you are seeing is not the product of instant reaction. You're seeing that there's somebody who's been focusing on these issues for years, Iran war, 20 years, American political violence, five years. Well, that and then is married to frameworks and you're seeing the frameworks are valuable and that I will offer even more frameworks down the road. But for this crisis, I just want to point out, we really need to just understand that when we hit that stage three, as we're heading toward, we haven't hit there yet, and I'm doing everything I can to try to pull us back from that.

53:28But what that's going to do to that 36, 39 % you showed is it's likely going to harden it initially. And see, the public, the bottom did not fall out by the public in the Vietnam War like overnight. And it's not a linear thing exactly with casualties, although it does tend to sort of go there. Need to understand that there are people supporting this war. And as people die for them, for their position, they will be sticky, much like there were people very angry when we withdrew from Afghanistan. So you will see a similar dynamic here. now over time it will likely come down but that may not happen for for a period of months we we just need to be aware that's the stickiness here because we're going to permanent losses and that's going to have a political role now the other 60 percent they're going to harden too so this is what what what we're facing it's facing a fracture but as that fractures you are still have a president in office, that president controls the use of force.

54:37And so you may well see this doubling down. And I think you're heading toward if we cross into any of those ground scenarios here, no matter who allies, no matter who else comes, you are likely to see this months long war of attrition. And then you haven't seen anything yet with the global economy. The shocks we've seen so far, these have all been mitigated by talking down the price. That's not going to be possible once we cross phase three. Wow. Professor, just last question for you, I think, here as we prepare for the end of the deadline. You're saying that any sort of ground scenario basically enables stage three to begin, that it will probably have an attrition.

55:23Is there simply no way you think in your framework where there could be some, quote, limited operation? Well, no, because what you would do, like, let's just take one of those four scenarios, 82nd Airborne, that's about what you would need 1 ,000 paratroopers to take the airport on Karj Island. Then you would try to reinforce that. But it's 1 ,000. So let's say you only took the airport on Karj Island. Let's say, you know, dozens, maybe even 100 die as they're coming down because they're being shot at as they're coming down in the parachutes. So you've now got the cost. But then are you just going to leave them there?

55:59And how are you going to get them back? You see, are you going to fly in C-130s to get them out? Are you going to fly in Ospreys to get them out? What exactly are we going to do once we got them there? Because see, they can, they're the pointy end of the spear, meaning they take the entry point, but they don't hold the entry point. They don't reinforce the entry point. and after a few days they're going to run out of food and water so you really can't you got to make a decision so you now have a thousand people and yes you lost some portion just to get them there in the first 24 36 hours or so forth but now they're there and are we going to walk from a thousand people because uh it seems like the iranians are up for killing every single one So I think this is really how you then, why that word limited, I think, is really disingenuous.

56:55It's not, I do use it, I put it in scare quotes, because that is how I thought it would be sold to the public. It is how it's being sold. But I think we should be under no illusion that there's an actual equilibrium point. The only equilibrium point is if the Iranians say, oh, we changed our mind, we're suddenly going to give up the Strait of Hormuz, welcome you in with open arms. Here, we're just seeing no sign of that in this regime. And the regime just killed 20 ,000 to 30 ,000 of its own people to stay in power. Why are they not going to kill Americans and every single one they can get? Well, scary stuff.

57:33But as always, we enjoy talking to you, sir. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you very much for letting us explain this to your great audience. Thank you. Thank you, sir. My pleasure. Iveem is built for losing weight and moving forward. iVeem is built for feeling your best and seeing results. iVeem is a medical weight loss program built for you. Their approach is individualized, virtual, integrative medicine. 99.2 % of patients who completed the iVeem weight loss protocol achieved meaningful change, dropping an average of 45 pounds. iVeem, built for your wellness journey. iVeem, built for real life.

58:08When you sign up right now, you can get a one-month free trial. Start your personalized plan in minutes by visiting iveamhealth.com. That's I-V-I-M health.com. Subscription required medication labs and supplements not included. Results based on patients who completed the full iVeam protocol over 68 weeks. Individual results vary. Not all patients are eligible. Prescription medications may carry risks and should be used only as directed by your provider. When it comes to advancing your education, you have more options than you think. At Rasmussen University, they find ways to remove barriers, not build them.

58:52Like a new laptop if you're eligible and enroll in select online or on-campus programs. That also means flexible and engaging online courses and resources, tuition savings options if you qualify, exceptional student support, and much more. Online nationally or check out their 20 campuses across six states. Start when you're ready and get the support you need. Visit rasmussen.edu. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Bahamar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels. The richly refined Rosewood, the playfully hip SLS, and the stylishly modern Grand Hyatt.

59:33With over 45 restaurants, bars, and lounges, Baja Mar serves up delicious dining from world-renowned chefs like Daniel Bouloud and Marcus Samuelson, nightlife venues like the new Jean Batiste Jazz Club, and the Caribbean's most luxurious casino. At Baja Mar, you'll find every pleasure under the sun and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like Baja Bay, our 15-acre lush tropical water park, interactive wildlife experiences, including our daily flamingo parade, world-class golf, tennis, spa, and so much more. Visit Bahamar.com today and discover a vacation destination where memories are made for a lifetime.

1:00:11Bahamar, life spectacular. So as you guys know, Ryan is just back from Cuba where he was there on a reporting trip along with a group that was bringing a significant amount of aid to the island, which is blockaded by the choice of our own government with catastrophic consequences for all Cubans there. on the island, which he was able to document some of and talk to Emily about yesterday. I'm sure, Sagar, you've seen all the shit he's taken over the dumbest possible things ever. What is it, staying in hotels, which you're required to stay in? Which you're required to stay in, yes. And the fact that the hotels have electricity, but the hospitals don't, which is a choice of the Trump administration, which is allowing fuel sales to private businesses, but not public entities like the hospitals, which are, of course, publicly owned famously.

1:00:58And I'm sure Ryan would have happily had the hospital have energy as opposed to - Oh my God. It's not like exactly it was up to him. He also went there just to try and report and get information. What he's brought back is honestly harrowing. And look, everyone needs to pay attention because have you noticed all these Cubans? They're like, hey, you did Venezuela and you did Iran. We're next. Yeah. And if you go outside Mar-a-Lago, you've got all of these Cuba signs that are all up right now. They're all living in Florida. Remember, there's a very powerful political lobby. You got a Cuban who's literally the U.S.

1:01:28Secretary of State and said I think his father's dying wish was to make sure that communism was rid of Cuba. You've got these ultimatums that are happening. So we are not ruling this out. Also, very undernoticed, two new amphibious, I forget exactly the term, the specific type of ship on their way to the Caribbean. Oh, really? Yeah, so just because we withdrew some, there are still U.S. naval assets which are actually moving back to the Caribbean and to keep some sort of forced posture there. In the case that we go after Cuba, Trump literally, what did he say? He said, it will be my privilege to take it.

1:02:02He said, I will take Cuba. It will be my privilege. Many presidents have wanted to. It will be my privilege to take the island. Our reporters were like, what does that mean? And here's the thing. Well, one other update to give you guys before I throw this interview that Ryan did with a high-level Cuban official, Carlos Casio, who is the Cuban deputy foreign minister. yesterday some of the activists who were part of that trip were coming back flying through Miami and they were all detained and interrogated and had their phones seized by U.S. immigration authorities here you know obvious and blatant attempt at intimidation so these are the type of you know authoritarian tactics that this administration is happy happy to deploy but I'm going to throw to this interview but one of the things Ryan wanted to make sure that we note is that you know unlike Iran where they're like we're done negotiating like you're going to have to feel pain and no, we're not, you know, we're not coming to the table with you again.

1:02:56So you can murder us again. The Cubans are open to making some kind of deal, you know, sort of similar to the Venezuela situation where Maduro was like, I will give you literal gold. I will do business with you with like, I have lots of things we can do together. Come and let's make a deal. But Trump preferred to just like kidnap him. And, you know, in this very colonial way, effectively take over the country. I know who was it that just came back with a bunch of gold from there. Oh, Doug Bergam, I think, came back with a bunch of gold from Venezuela. So in any case, it's a similar dynamic where the Cubans are like, no, we will work out a deal with you.

1:03:28But the Trump administration is apparently wholly uninterested in that. So in this interview with Carlos Casio, the Cuban deputy foreign minister, you'll hear him talking about how they're open to offering even compensation to American companies as part of a broader deal. So with all of that being said, here is Ryan interviewing that Cuban official. Thank you so much for agreeing to do this. I really appreciate it. It's a pleasure. So as your country is entering into negotiations with the United States, I'm wondering how much it is in the back of the mind of negotiators that the United States twice entered into negotiations with Iran and in the middle of those negotiations started wars recently, and then back in June, Palestinian negotiators have also been attacked.

1:04:17What has that done to the structure and the psychology of negotiations with the United States? Is it something that's in your head? It's very present in our mind. We see what happens, we have experience, and we take that into account. The problem is that we have, or the issue, not the problem, is that we have a standing position of trying to find our problems or to solve our problems with any country. And that includes the United States through dialogue, through respectful and responsible dialogue, based on international law and respect the sovereignty of both countries. And one would ask, would you trust it?

1:05:01We see no alternative. We believe it's the only way in which we can find solution to the issues between Cuba and the United States. and we truly believe that they could be found. We don't think that our two countries should live forever in hostility. There's no animosity from Cuba to the United States. To give you an idea, there's never been a burning of American flag in Cuba that I know of or that anyone knows of. There's no conflict of an ethnical, of a cultural nature with the United States. In fact, we have quite a close relationship with many people in the United States that visit us directly or indirectly, and that engage with us in many areas, in arts, culture, sports, science, in many areas.

1:05:46So we were ready to sit down. Now, we also have another experience, which is that in previous engagements with the United States, including the most meaningful one in 2015, 2016, 2017, Cuba fulfilled all of the commitments on which we agreed upon. The US failed on most of them. And it's not that we say it. People who participated in that process acknowledge it. And the government of the United States declared openly that they would not feel that they were bound by those agreements and that they would break it. So we also have that experience. But that does not stop us from exploring and accepting an invitation by the US to sit down and have a dialogue.

1:06:31You recently talked about how Cuba is open to allowing Cuban nationals or Cuban Americans to live in the United States or investors from the United States investing here in Cuba, which isn't necessarily new, but it was reported in the United States as if that was new. But one of the chief obstacles there is that, as you know, if there is that investment that is made, you will then have other investors go to U.S. courts and claim that, no, that's compensated. You know, that is that's stolen property. You know, that is my property. You go to court, Helms Burton, and the court will say, OK, well, now you're owed a billion dollars because they traded your stolen property.

1:07:21So how does Cuba envision moving past that kind of catch-22? There can't be foreign investment from the United States if other investors can go to U.S. courts and seize that investment. Well, first, it's not totally new, but the scope with which we're doing it and the openness which we're doing it today and the facilities that we're putting in place is new. And I say the scope because we're talking about small investment, but also big investment. What would be an example of something? Infrastructure. Right. In highways, in parts of electricity, not the national grid, in big buildings, in tourism, in agriculture, in industries, big industries.

1:08:08Tourism. Tourism, the sugar industry, the rum industry. We're open to that for foreign investors, including Cubans that live abroad, not necessarily in the US, but also in the US that would want to invest in Cuba. And that's new. And that the scope with which we are doing it the openness and the facilities are new In other words, it's more active Towards Cubans and specifically The not all property in Cuba belong to the US a lot of it and the most productive but all of so there's a lot of Areas in Cuba in which you can invest and nobody could claim that they were a former owner nor go to court Thirdly, based on Cuba's law, that has no problem.

1:08:57It could have a problem in the United States. What helps burden as a law has proven its faults. None, none of the demands that have been put in place, and there are very few, has been successful up to now. The last effort has gone to the Supreme Court because it has failed. It's with Exxon. It has failed in previous courts. We know the politics in the United States. We understand how politics and policy of the government influence the courts. So we are expecting to see what's happening. But up to now, they have not been successful. And in addition to that, the US government, if it wants, it can make exceptions so that whoever wants to invest specifically or in general would never go to court.

1:09:49Is there a holistic agreement that could see compensation for some of the property that was American so that that issue is no longer dogging efforts to grow and develop the country? Holistic agreements are the approach that the world has. And it's the one that we had in the early 60s. We had a holistic agreement, it's called lump sum agreements, they're called, with the governments, there were six governments of the country whose property were nationalized in Cuba. All of them had compensation schemes. All of them were compensated, with the exception of the U.S., because the U.S. government simply refused the terms that were proposed by Cuba.

1:10:36And refused then, when Cuba said, well, let's sit down. Let's find an agreeable solution between them. And it refused to sit down. Naturally, we learned later that they were planning the Bay of Pigs invasion at the time. So they said, why would we negotiate? But the rest were done. And today, studies have been made that if the agreement would have been accepted by the United States, all of them would have been compensated by the mid-80s. All of the Americans, which were the larger sum. But the only solution for this is through lump sum. Now, we're ready to sit down in the United States and discuss these issues.

1:11:13But Cuba also has claims. We believe the Cuban people and the Cuban nation requires or deserves to be compensated for damage done by the economic blockade, by the invasions, by terrorism, by assassinations, by violent actions against the economy. And so we're ready to sit down. And in fact, during the Obama years, we sat down. We believe we can still sit down, perhaps not follow the same approach. We can innovate a new approach, but we need to sit down government to government. So lump sum would be back on the table in any holistic... It would have to be in a holistic in which, again, our claims would be at the same table.

1:11:56What is your sense of what happened with the Biden administration? There was a sense in Washington that, okay, Trump, he undid everything that Obama did, but Biden, when he comes back in, he will - Faithfully followed Trump. Yeah. In economic terms, not in other, he had more diplomatic opening, but in economic terms and economic punishment to Cuba, faithfully followed Trump. Is there any analysis of why that is? We've had, we think that there are people that the democratic government at the time listened to, some of Cuban origin, who ill-advised Biden, tell them, look, don't make any move. There's no need.

1:12:39This country is going to collapse. And Biden is already gone. And Cuba's still here. So I've only been here a couple of days at this point, but even yesterday, you know, after the power was restored yesterday, again, blackout over much of Havana with, you know, no oil has gotten in since what, December? So my thought was that this is just no way to live. Like this feels unsustainable. From your sense, how, you know, you can be creative, you can be innovative, but how long can a situation like this go on before, And then I don't know before what because people still wake up every day and go about you know and live How do you think through?

1:13:25What we we near future looks like first we believe that some oil should come in the US has a lot of power but Is it? Forever sustainable for the US to be able to coerce every country in the world to not export fuel to Cuba Will that be absolutely acceptable for the US government? with no clearer mind in the U.S. government think we're committing huge cruelty against a whole nation. So we expect, and we could be naive about it, but we have to hope that at some point someone's going to say, you do not do this to people. You do not do this to a whole society. Trying to kill them by suffocating them as a whole.

1:14:13So we still hope that some oil would come in from some other countries or even from the U.S. if they're ready to do it. And meantime, we continue to prepare, as I said, to be less dependent on fuel than we've been. But it should not be confused. We have a very clear mind of the challenge in front of us. And we have a very clear mind that time is not on our side and That the pressure is building on our people and the suffering is going And so the American government often pushes for you know economic reforms Political reforms and so on So do a lot of Cuban people What I've heard from some Some is that if that the The embargo, the blockade, the terrorism designation, the pressure has severely limited Cuba's kind of range of motion that is very difficult to innovate and experiment in a situation where you're under so much pressure.

1:15:19Is that true? And do you suspect that people who want to see various reforms would be strengthened inside the Cuban government if the embargo were lifted, if the pressure were lifted, and if Cuba could trade with other countries in a normal fashion like anybody else? The question is that if we feel that, who would be strengthened? People inside the government who want to reform either the economy or the political system who want to try something different Who want to allow for? You know different economic experiments in certain areas Would they would that be more likely or less likely in a in a world where the embargo is lifted?

1:16:02The the steps that we take are collectively analyzed. Hmm. We reach a consensus to carry them out. So normally, it's not this faction thinking of this faction. If the faction doesn't want to do anything, can always say, now's not the time. We've thought about some of the things. Some things we need to accelerate, and some that we have been thinking of, because of the level of pressure, we have to put a stop on them, on pause. Because under these conditions, we simply do not have the - some require money, to give you an example. Some require a level of energy that we don't have so we put some important reforms I would say On pause give an example or two I prefer not to go into that because I don't want to give expectations But have to be put on pause against our will but because of the conditions in which we are but We we are sure and we've been aware of that for years, that our economy needs to transform because the demography of the country has changed.

1:17:12The world has changed. The composition of the Cuban workforce has changed. The opportunities that we have to carry out some issues, some things that we did in the past are not there anymore. So we need to transform the economy and also things that we took for granted, that we studied in books, We're very good in books, but materially no country was successful doing that. So life has shown that are things that we need to do. And with the problem that there's no blueprint in any country. There's no example that we can follow exactly because no other country has been given the same set of cards that we have been given, including fundamentally U.S.

1:17:53hostility. But our aim is to take steps as fast as we can, but with caution. Because mistakes can cost, and we made some. During some transformations that were taken out of time without the right condition, they have cost, have derailed us, and has taken us some time to get back on path. Thank you, Vice Minister. Really appreciate your time. Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. This might go down as the longest show ever in BP history, but sometimes that's what the news calls for. Obviously, we'll all be on deck Friday show, and we're watching for any potential ground invasion over the weekend.

1:18:30So make sure that you stay tuned. Thank you to everybody who watches, and we'll see you all later.

1:19:01sign up right now, you can get a one-month free trial. Start your personalized plan in minutes by visiting iveamhealth.com. That's I-V-I-M health.com. Subscription required medication labs and supplements not included. Results based on patients who completed the full iVeam protocol over 68 weeks. Individual results vary. Not all patients are eligible. Prescription medications may carry risks and should be used only as directed by your provider. When it comes to advancing your education, you have more options than you think. At Rasmussen University, they find ways to remove barriers, not build them, like a new laptop if you're eligible and enroll in select online or on-campus programs.

1:19:49That also means flexible and engaging online courses and resources, tuition savings options if you qualify, exceptional student support, and much more. online nationally, or check out their 20 campuses across six states. Start when you're ready and get the support you need. Visit rasmussen.edu. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Bahamar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues, John Batiste's all-new Jazz Club, the Caribbean's most luxurious casino, and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like our 15-acre tropical water park, wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course, and so much more.

1:20:35Visit Bahamar.com today. This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.