4/1/26: Iran Bombs Bahrain Amazon, US Allies Warn Of Disaster, Robert Pape On Iran Gaining Power, Mass Layoffs

25:46Now it's not. But Hegseth has set the conditions for success. Who is going to take us over the top to success? none other than the United Arab Emirates. We can put up A7 here. The Emiratis are saying that they want to join in the fight. They have bought a whole bunch of fancy F-15s. They've trained up their pilots. They famously have a couple of female fighter pilots, which they used against ISIS. That was their big kind of propaganda effort to say, look at how progressive and folk and forward thinking we are. It's not just that they can drive cars. Women can also drive. They can even drive fighter jets.

26:26So they want in. They want in on the action. The UAE has been pushing for a strike against Iran. I believe it was in 2010 or 2011. Yusuf Al-Oteba at the Aspen Institute let slip at the time that he wanted the U.S. to bomb Iran. That was a big scandal at the time. Created this rift between him and the Gulf countries and Iran. Ambassadors were recalled, etc. But it has been part of their national security strategy to attack Iran for now, going on at least 15 years. They finally get what they want. It's a complete catastrophe for them. Probably marks the end of the era of Dubai as we know it. And they recognize that.

27:12They recognize that if Iran ends this conflict in control of the Strait of Hormuz, they're going to just tax the hell out of Dubai. and how are they then going to have indoor skiing? Well, this is where the speech that Donald Trump is set to deliver tonight is very interesting because the timing, I'm curious, Ryan, if you think some of it is that Trump is trying to mitigate, like as you just said, this could be the end of Dubai as we know it. And that applies to not just Dubai, but other Gulf states. So what seems possible is that Trump is trying to mitigate the obvious fallout that was utterly predictable.

27:58But he's trying to kind of stanch the bleeding by coming up with a way to like say the I mean, he's keep saying the war is over. But to like deliver a formal address to the nation saying we're done. It's over. Mission accomplished. We'll see. And then because we have a three day weekend, the markets are closed. on Friday, then maybe he launches another surprise attack. Like, it's almost not even worth listening to the guy. And Robert Pape is going to talk about that, I think, when we have him on. Okay, you can listen to him, like, if you don't have anything else to do, but do not credit what he says as meaningful.

28:33I think Carolyn Leavitt had a great quote yesterday, where she said, when the president says something, it means something. Well, Well, doesn't necessarily, but it doesn't necessarily mean what he said. Yes. It might mean something. But then you have redefined the word meaning. Well, it's, it's, this is what he wrote about in Art of the Deal. Like he uses words to negotiate. Like he, he uses meaning to your point. Like that's an intentional, we talk about this all the time. Like it's a happy liberation day anniversary to all who celebrate. We talked about this all of the time in the wake of original liberation day last April 2nd, which is, to some extent, you can understand how in business deals, talking like that is a tool and an advantage.

29:16If it goes on for a year on tariffs and then it's going on for weeks in a war, it's not like you're just building a new casino. It's so obviously not like you're just building a new casino, and yet it's where we find ourselves. As a senior administration official put it to Axios this morning, quote, quote, this isn't 3D chess, it's 12-dimensional. He contradicts himself regularly, so nobody knows what he's thinking. It's on purpose, unquote. Well, the world is just kind of moving on and just trying to say, okay, you know what? Actually, we don't know what this guy is doing. But we've got to prepare ourselves for what is obviously coming, which is extreme hardship.

29:59That, again, by the way, is very similar to what certain major companies and countries have bet on with Liberation Day. And the negotiating principle has been very similar. To create a totally unpredictable environment, so much so that people bet on the United States. This is like steelmanning, the way Donald Trump would describe this chaotic, if he even described it in a way that was coherent. But this is the steelman argument behind his threats that are all over the map. And what we're seeing is the opposite of the intended effect, even when you try to understand those intentions, which is like you're nailing spaghetti to a wall.

30:34Yeah, well, that steel man is still being made with foreign steel. Manufacturing jobs way down over the past year. The decline is slower than it happened. Okay, well, there we go. Good for Trump. All right, so Keir Starmer, UK prime minister, and Anthony Albanese, the Australian prime minister, are out there freaking everybody out because they are absolutely freaked out. Europe and Asia are basically moving into like redos of COVID lockdowns at this point when it comes to energy usage. We, because we're a little bit down the pipeline, haven't quite started to experience what they're experiencing now.

31:12But let's roll Keira Starmer just to get a sense of, oh, this is getting real. It is now clear that the impact of this war will affect the future of our country. So today I want to reassure the British people that no matter how fierce this storm, we are well placed to weather it. And that we have a long term plan to emerge from it a stronger and more secure nation. First, let me say once again, this is not our war. We will not be drawn into the conflict. That is not in our national interest. And the most effective way we can support the cost of living in Britain is to push for de-escalation in the Middle East and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

32:08And so that comes after the kind of conservative prime minister of Italy, Maloney, said that the U.S. can't use its bases or fly over for the war effort. And the left wing government of Spain has said the same. Anthony Albanese in Australia also warning his country that, yeah, things are getting rough. Let's roll A10. Making sure that we are prepared so that if the global situation gets worse and our fuel supplies are seriously disrupted over the long term, we can coordinate the next steps together. Today we cut the fuel excise in half, cutting the tax on every litre of petrol by 26 cents. Those savings have started showing up at your petrol station.

32:52For our truckies, we have cut the heavy vehicle road user charge to zero. Both these measures will be in place for the next three months. And if you're hitting the road, don't take more fuel than you need, just fill up like you normally would. Think of others in your community, in the bush and in critical industries. And over coming weeks, if you can switch to catching the train or bus or tram to work, do so. That builds our reserves and it saves fuel for people who have no choice but to drive. And all those shift workers and nurses who do so much for our country. The months ahead may not be easy.

33:32I want to be upfront about that. All right, Emily, so the entire world is rationing fuel now. I don't see what could go wrong. Doesn't seem great. So there was also a related development. Which, sorry, that affects the cost of everything. Nobody needs me to say that, but that affects the cost of absolutely everything. And we're moving from the cost of things to the existence of things. The scarcity. Yeah. This is bleak. And again, for what? And this is where I think Israel does not quite recognize what it's gotten itself into. because the publics in Australia, in Asia, in South America, in the UK, in Europe, and when it hits us in the United States are going to understand that whether you want to blame Trump for going along with it or not, Israel wanted this war.

34:29Israel very clearly and publicly and for decades wanted this war. They got it. We're all paying for it. So last night, AOC met with DSA to go over their kind of re-endorsement process, a very cool democratic process that they have. And what emerged from it are two significant shifts. One, she said she would, in the future, always vote against what's known as the IHRA definition of anti-Semitism, which says that any criticism of Israel is also then, therefore, anti-Semitic. And she said, no, I will vote against that. That should not be enshrined. She also said, and we can put up a eight here, that she will no longer she will.

35:14The quote is she's committed to voting against, quote, any spending on arms for Israel, including so-called defensive capabilities. And this had been a flashpoint because for years she had supported, whether or not she had voted for it or not, she had kind of supported the idea of the Iron Dome and other quote unquote defensive weapons for Israel. She has tried relentlessly to chart what she understood to be kind of a reasonable middle ground where she could be seen and taken seriously by all sides and could help to be some kind of conciliator or bringing people together here that she would say innocent Israelis should not be subject to indiscriminate rocket attacks.

36:05what she's finding here clearly is that that's just not a sustainable position with Israel kind of lashing out constantly around the region well I was going to say actually it gets the point you were just making about I mean you just said Israel doesn't necessarily know what it's unleashed by provoking this war for so long and there are plenty of people in the American government who have also been provoking and trying to bring us into this war for years as well. Because I imagine for AOC, I mean, I don't know how you've done extensive reporting on this. I don't know how sincere that middle ground position was, but this is clearly sincere.

36:45I mean, I think this sounds like the authentic AOC position. I think it was very sincere. I think that she genuinely thought that she could be somebody that could bridge these camps because she thought she could have credibility with both sides. You know, she was ruthlessly attacked by AIPAC and its allies. And so there was no political benefit to trying to play this reconciliation role. And there was only then criticism from the other side. And then what does Israel do with our endless, quote-unquote, defensive weapons? they're invading and occupying Lebanon. They're trying to annex the West Bank.

37:29They start a war with Iran. They refuse to move to phase two with Gaza and allow any reconstruction or reasonable aid. They carried a genocide there. So at some point you're like, you know what? There's no political benefit for this. The country won't go a week without going to war or invading one of its neighbors. and so why am I going to kind of drag my own potential presidential campaign down over an issue that where I don't get any credit for it anyway the incentive structure has changed this is an indication of how the politics have changed yeah and tough this is to be tough for Gavin Newsom I think it could it'll it'll challenge Ro Khanna who I think has still been supportive of quote-unquote defensive weapons?

38:18It's going to be like, well, because the public is not going to, when the public is looking at$150 a barrel, $5,$6 gas, they're not going to want to hear about these distinctions about offensive and defensive weapons. Right, right. So you're like, they're just using our weapons to create chaos and expand their territory in the Middle East. Why should we keep doing that is I think what you're going to hear from the public and definitely from Democratic primary voters. Well, let's get now to Professor Robert Pape, who is going to brief us on the escalation trap.

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41:34Interactive wildlife experiences, including our daily flamingo parade, world-class golf, tennis, spa, and so much more. Visit BajaMar.com today and discover a vacation destination where memories are made for a lifetime. Baja Mar, life spectacular. Well, as we mentioned earlier in the show, Donald Trump plans to address the nation on the Iran war with a quote update at 9 p.m. Eastern live tonight. Now we're joined once again by Professor Robert Pape who's been on with Crystal and Sager and is of course author of the Escalation Trap Substack where he's going to be doing a live briefing on Saturday and wrote actually just like nine hours ago according to Substack.

42:18I don't know if you've got enough sleep, Professor Pape, that Trump may say the war. Oh gosh, that's not enough. Trump may say the war is over. He's wrong. Professor Pape, of course, is professor of political science at the University of Chicago. You can and should follow the escalation trap on Substack. Professor, thanks so much for joining us. Thank you very much for having me. You accommodate my schedule here. I really appreciate that. And I'm also delighted to speak to the audience here again, which is so crucial. Your audience is so important. And I just couldn't thank you enough. Well, thank you.

42:56And we wanted to start with this clip of Benjamin Netanyahu talking about what Israel's goal for the region might be after the war, obviously, to nuclear or one nuclear nation potentially trying to thwart another nuclear nation from growing, which has been the focus of your entire career, Professor. So let's go ahead and roll the clip. This is the guarantee for our future. We are working on transforming Israel into a super nation in the region and globally. And we were able to do so thanks to our soldiers and our captains and all those who fought and those who died. And of course, thanks to your solidarity and your steadfastness.

43:44So, Professor, the title, as I just read of your latest post on the escalation trap, is Trump may say the war is over, he's wrong. Is this why you think if Trump tries to say the war is over, he's wrong? Yes. What we're going to see, and your listeners will know, I talked about three stages. We've done stage one. We've done, we're stage two. Stage three is the ground power dilemma. Well, if we don't go to the ground war, that's not de-escalation, as many people would hope. It's going to be a stage four. There's going to be a continuation, and that's what I'm going to explain here and also more later.

44:19So stage four, and this is where Netanyahu is really wrong, is about what will be the new center of world power coming out of this conflict. Netanyahu said it's going to be Israel. He's wrong. It's not going to be Israel. And you can already see who it's going to be today, which is Iran is not just controlling shipping the way people are describing oil prices the way people are describing. Iran is controlling so much world oil, so much, and oil is so critical to world power that Iran is emerging as a new global center of power. So let me just explain this a moment. So before the war, 33 days ago, there were three centers of world power we discussed.

45:19The U.S., Russia, and China. Now, why was Russia even in that mix? Because it had 11 % of the world's oil. And, of course, it uses that for military purposes. Well, Iran now has double that amount of world oil, more than any other country on the planet. And what that's going to mean are$75,$100 billion a year more to put into military. That nuclear enrichment is now more likely than ever to become nuclear weapons. And over time, as the months and the years go on, which I know we're having a hard time coming to grips with the reality that's occurred here, is that this is going to create a new center of world power and dwarf Israel.

46:17This, as you can see right away, for all of our lifetimes, oil has been so critical. And it's not just oil, of course, it's gas, it's the energy, it's the fertilizer. This is what Iran has now as a chokehold on the world, but it's 20%. And there's no way you're going to make up for that in the next three or four years. Even if you start drilling now, it will take that long. So Iran is coming out of this. And we've never seen this in our lifetimes. A new world power center created in a month? That's what's on issue here. So whatever President Trump says tonight, whether he wants to go forward, ground war or not, Not all of this we don't know, and he may not even know.

47:09Let's face it. He's been all over the map. The reality, I deal with the realities here, and what we are seeing is escalation reality with strategic consequences. Those aren't over because President Trump thinks he's going to stop and go to Mar-a-Lago and just cut himself off from the world. No, the world will have to live now with this new center of world power. and there's no good way to deal with this. This is why I was so opposed to this war with the modeling I've been explaining. This is not like, this will end up being worse than Vietnam. Maybe not in battle deaths, so the 58 ,000 dead, that took 10 years, however, so we haven't been into this 10 years yet.

47:54But it's because of the consequences. There was no way Vietnam was ever going to become a center of world power. It had no nuclear-enriched material. It was not going to do shocks. This one was always fundamentally different. And I realized most of the world would not know that. Why should they know that? They're not modeling this for decades. This is what was always coming. And that's why I said, this is the horns of a dilemma. It's a branching with where we're at. It's not a, well, now that we're going to not go forward with the groundwork, we can all live happily ever after. Oil prices are going to come down.

48:35Iran's just going to give up the power that I'm describing? When was a country ever give up any power, let alone world power? Well, the United States. This will be my new discussion points going forward. And that's why I so appreciate coming on your show to share it. You got it first, basically an exclusive. And so, I mean, your answer to the question of what country would ever just voluntarily give up power might be the United States. Oh, yeah. Well, that's what you can. So all that talk of America first, okay, I've been trying to argue for America. I'm not using Trump's language. I'm not supporting that.

49:14But I'm just pointing out that was always cheap sales talk, cheap sales talk. So what you're getting now is the reality, sir. And what you are seeing is as the four centers of power now, there are now four, America's the one going down. Russia going up. China's going to be going up. Iran's going up. Who's going down? And so we have a little breaking news on this nine o 'clock event that Trump is having. So when you get your reaction in real time. So he did one of these very brief interviews with Reuters about what he's going to talk about. And he told Reuters he's going to express, quote unquote, my disgust with NATO.

49:56And it sounds like it's going to be significantly a broadside against NATO. And he said he's, quote, absolutely considering withdrawing U.S. forces from NATO. So you've spent decades, he says, modeling these, the escalation trap when countries get involved. I don't know if you've ever had a model with this many variables. Well, well, actually, so this, I appreciate that your audience is not familiar with this, but that's not it is the case sir that we deal with this so let me explain first your audience what is nato okay nato's not just a political club a talking club of diplomats it's a military organization with the american general at the top who gives orders to the other country's militaries that's what nato is okay it's a command structure right now today sir even though that's still is in place.

50:57Do you believe for a second the British Army is going to follow General Cain, the American? Just imagine if General Cain said, British Army, you go X. That's just not happening. So what I would just say is we've talked about the fading away of NATO for years. We're not at that point anymore. NATO is dead. NATO is in the morgue and the obituary is what's being written now. So it's already dead. There's no way the Europeans are following the American generals here. And I'm sorry to say, even if it's a democratic president comes in, they're not, we've elected Donald Trump twice now. The idea the Europeans are going to obey orders from American general, not happening.

51:43So this is really going to have also major consequences because we never had to worry about this problem of you know these little dust-ups like on Greenland well this this may be a future here and it's a horrible future but I'm just pointing out what Donald Trump has done here this is this is much larger consequences and the oil shock and the energy shock is already astounding I'm explaining there's a stage four here and this This is even as astounding as it's been already in 33 days. My gosh, the next six months, we're going to be, this is going to be the reverse of the end of the Cold War. The end of the Cold War, we shot up like a rocket, like a rocket.

52:34Those 90s, Bill Clinton's presidency. Oh my goodness. Those days, yeah, everybody, yeah, we all know what, boy, do we want those days back, right? Well, this is the other way around. We're now on the other end of this, going the other way. $40 trillion in debt. Oh, my gosh. I mean, the amount of trouble here, that's why I so appreciate, again, just talking to your smart audience. It's my favorite audience to talk to. It's like being at the University of Chicago. You guys, it's just that you're here. I mean, it's just that that's don't gas them up too much. They're going to get big heads. And it's you guys.

53:17And it's also your other the other folks here. I mean, this you're asking really the right questions. And on that point, you I wanted to ask about this, this thread that you posted yesterday. You mentioned at one point in this thread, watch the deployments as U.S. forces move to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The region is already splitting. Iraq is hedging. Qatar and Oman are staying neutral. Saudi and UAE are growing more alarm. So you posted that again. According to X, 22 hours ago this morning, we were going to the news. I came right out of class. And by the way, so I'm teaching here in just a few hours.

53:53And essentially, all my students are asking exactly, and my class are bursting. Okay. They're all asking all of this. So that's why these thoughts are there, because I'm already talking to my students about these. So what you are seeing, oh, go ahead. Well, I was just going to say, we woke up this morning in news that Amazon had been hit in Bahrain and that the IRC is threatening all these major defense contractors in the Gulf region. And I was curious, from your perspective, Professor, that seems like very obvious tripwires around the entire region where you could end up seeing boots on the ground to potentially defend those major defense contractors.

54:28Well, you're seeing this. We're on the horns of the dilemma. So you're seeing right there, do we defend it or do we go away? You see, this is what we're looking for here. And I suspect whatever President Trump says tonight, two weeks from now, we'll see where we're really at. That's why I say follow the deployments. Right now, we have another carrier coming to the region. We have more special forces being mobilized. We have the additional Marines coming. Until those forces literally reverse course in the water and the Marine muse, that big hunk of metal ships with all those equipment, go back to Japan and go back to California and we start pulling out forces from the region and moving them to other parts of the world, this is not a reality.

55:19The rhetoric here, we've got to see that's what that deployment is. And also, what you're also seeing is the second point I made is that Iran, I warned before that as Iran's horizontal escalation would continue, you would see the fracturing of the Gulf states. That's exactly what you're seeing. And Bahrain, I explained in that tweet here, there's three groups in the Gulf states now. There's those already bandwagoning toward Iran. That's Iraq. There's those that have been in the middle. That is Oman and Qatar. And they're desperately trying to duck and avoid any getting. But they're in the middle.

55:58They're not pro-America now. And now you have the others and Bahrain, UAE. These have been focused here. They have some Shia. They have there's real reasons to pressure those particular states. And that's what you're seeing Iran doing. They're being extremely smart about how they're fracturing those three pools. And what they're doing is breaking the coalition. We're not growing. We just talked about the end of NATO. Our coalition's falling apart here, and they're picking up pieces. And this is the problem. Russia will pick up some more pieces. China will pick up some more pieces. So this is what we are going to see more of.

56:44And I don't know if six months from now, President Trump may decide he wants to keep American forces and bases there. He may have to fight to keep them there, just where they are today. So I don't mean to grow. I mean, Bahrain has a big base. They may throw us out. And we may have to say, well, we'll have to topple the Bahrain government to keep that. Are we really going to do? These are the choices President Trump has put us in now. This is not where we were 33 days ago. And you had written something that was kind of a disturbing insight, which cuts against, I think, of a lot of the conventional thinking about how this unfolds.

57:26And I think the markets in general seem to think, OK, this can't go on because it's going to destroy the world. Like that, you know, the longer this goes on, the more energy volatility we have. And by volatility, actually, it's just heading straight down. It's not even volatile. It's just down. Trump will back off, declare victory because the source of the problem, the source of the economic crisis is what Trump's doing. So he'll remove himself from that, therefore removing the source of the instability and the crisis and we'll be back to normal. That seems to be the market's assumption, which is why they haven't completely bottomed out.

58:07Your argument is that, no, this instability actually kind of feeds the cyclical trap itself. Can you walk us through that a little bit? Yeah, so the trap, as I've explained it so far here, and let me just repeat that because it's very helpful, is at each of those stages I described, the Americans are tactically successful but strategically failing. And it's the failure and the counterproductive, we're in a worse position at each stage, that sucks us to go deeper into the trap. What I'm adding now is a new layer, and that's what you're noticing. And thank you very much. Again, smart identification of the newness here.

58:55What I'm adding is, and I'm really talking to J.P. Morgan. I'm talking to Jamie Dimon. I'm talking directly to those people, even though they may never have heard my name. Who, by the way, the IRGC threatened on that list yesterday. I was going to say J.P. Morgan was on the list of defense contractors that the IRGC said are now fair game in the region. Yes, that's exactly right. I'm trying to explain why their assumption is fatally flawed for their business. I don't just mean like cocktail chatter. Okay. I'm trying to go to the heart of the matter. And the heart of the matter is they're assuming that the root of this can be snagged out by just simply Trump walking away.

59:42And I've heard Jamie Dimey yesterday talking about this on Fox. He's just wrong. It's just flat out wrong. And the reason is because we have created, through no intention, but we've created a new center of world power. And Iran is not going to stop trying to grow that power. They're going to want to exert more influence in the Persian Gulf. And that's what you're seeing in those Amazon attacks. And absolutely, they're going to want to knock J.P. Morgan and Amazon out. That's Western imperialism as they see it. And they have a lot of power, and especially if Trump pulls back, they will have even more power.

1:00:21Then they also have growing power in Asia. I've been talking to Bloomberg, Hong Kong, others in Asia. So much of the oil from the Middle East goes to Asia, and Asia right now is in a supply crunch, not just a cost crunch. But there is in the Philippines, there's 200 million people in a supply crunch here, almost the size of the United States in Asia. This is generating enormous power for Iran and also in relation with China. They can do more and more together. And so what you're going to see here is this fundamental assumption that this can all just be blown over. And all we have to do is we're going to apologize for killing the supreme leader.

1:01:09And, yeah, Trump was stupid. And then we're all going to admit that it was just Trump here. We're just going to blame Trump, blame Netanyahu. And Iran's going to just give up world power. No. And who's going to pay the price? The businesses. J.P. Morgan, Amazon. This is going to have mega effects. Because they're not up for, if they want AI, Iran's going to get AI from somebody. It's China. And I spent two weeks in China last June touring the AI factories and shops on the robot shop floor to see for myself how the BYDs and so forth are being made. And oh my goodness gracious, China has enormous leverage here that it can share that AI with Iran.

1:01:54And so this idea that Iran needs J.P. Morgan, I don't know what I don't I'm just trying to explain that this is this is the fatal flaw in that thinking. And we have other break real quick rather breaking news. The manufacturing numbers are out for March and the actual is plus seven point eight points over the consensus. the highest number since mid-2022. This is oil already, oil prices already funneling their way into manufacturing prices, which is just another way of saying you're getting poorer. And meanwhile, Professor, stocks, the markets just opened about an hour ago as we're speaking here in the CNBC headline is stocks are higher to start the month as optimism around Iran war ending grows.

1:02:45Well, sure. They haven't caught up to the reality that I'm explaining. They still think Iran is 4 % of the world's oil. They're operating as if we were 33 days ago, and all that's changed is bombing. So we end bombing, and everything goes back to 33 days ago. There's just a flaw here. I don't know quite how to explain it. There's a reality, and that reality is Iran is a world power now. And as each week and month goes by, this will become more and more evident. And at some point, markets will catch up. I mean, markets are often, you know, behind. I mean, I always say, you know, Washington is three to six months behind, and markets are typically um um long behind more than that that's how you get the balloon so otherwise you would not have those balloons popping so i i the fact the market that's just another group of smart people i deal with smart people all the time everybody i deal with has is at the university of chicago is actually really smart so this is not about smart versus not this is about how to understand the reality that we're seeing versus the hopes that we also all have.

1:04:06Well, that sucks. I'm sorry to say it, but you're allowing me, this is why I keep complimenting you folks, you're allowing me to express it, you're following, you're seeing what's new at each week, because the world, I'm not just responding to, you know, yesterday's news, I'm trying to explain what to expect in the coming weeks. And I don't think that United States pulling back equals de-escalation in the way we would understand it, which is the economic shock here. Iran is going to squeeze countries as they go through. And I suspect they will never let a drop of oil from Saudi Arabia or UAE past the Strait of Hormuz here because they want to topple those governments.

1:05:01And I think that's why Saudi Arabia is talking to Pakistan, because Saudi Arabia is looking for who's going to help me and Pakistan's friendly to Iran. So why is Saudi Arabia making these relationships with Pakistan here? They need a backup in case Uncle Trump bails on them. And who would, yeah, you can see right away, you're not counting on Trump. So what are you doing? You're looking for a backup plan. And Pakistan may not be your best bet, but it's probably your only bet here to help. MBS has got a real problem. How is he going to his regime survive in this situation where he's lost that much oil revenue, so he can't use money as much as he could before.

1:05:49Iran is gaining power. These are the real consequences that I'm explaining by the new center of power. And it's just not likely to change. I just don't see how Iran, even if you got a new regime in Iran, why would they give up all this power? And Saudi Arabia reached a security deal with Pakistan. And I think the reason that Pakistan was trying to host the mediation talks is that so Pakistan could then tell Saudi Arabia, sorry, we can't participate in this war, we're mediators. But they're not. Well, I would go a little further. I was just on for half an hour with the big Pakistani media, because I think what's what's being missed there is I think Pakistan has been one of the countries understanding this emerging geopolitical power, not just the details.

1:06:38And so if you notice, who else was there? It was you basically had Pakistan, you had Turkey, you had Saudi Arabia, you have Iran. There's a growing anti-American coalition that is emerging here. As soon as we talked about arming the Kurds, we effectively lost Turkey. I mean, Turkey's got millions of Kurds. The idea we're going to arm the Kurds, The first thing those Kurds are likely to want to do is turn on Turkey. So this is already our ideas here are just doing everything to push away those countries. And Pakistan is starting to build coalitions here. So I don't think this is just about being Mr.

1:07:30Nice Guy Pakistan. Let's be nice. I think that what you're seeing is the reality of how the geopolitical game is played. All right, Professor Robert Pape, author of the Escalation Trap Substack. I have to talk to you again next week to get more depressing news. I'm very glad to do it. And thank you so much. Really, thank you. That was excellent. Thank you. You got it. All right, we'll see you later. Up next, a little rundown on the economic news. And guess what? It's not great. More bad news. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.

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1:10:29Visit Bahamar.com today. Major announcement from Oracle yesterday. We could put C2 up on the screen here. The headline, Oracle slashes 30 ,000 jobs with a cold 6 a.m. email. 30 ,000 jobs yesterday. Now we can move back to element C1. Put that up on the screen. The economic indicators are starting to look very bleak indeed. Indeed, this is a quote from reporter Steve Luckner, who said, in a speech with echoes of the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, this is pulled from a political Europe article, EU energy chief Dan Jorgensen said Europe was facing a very serious situation with no clear end in sight.

1:11:12Ryan, Trump has teased the speech to the nation at 9 p.m. Last I checked, futures were up, which is interesting given all of this news that we're going through right now. But let's say we didn't have this announcement about a Trump speech. Hypothetically say we have absolutely no idea what he's going to say, which isn't just a hypothetical. That's always true of Donald Trump. People seem to believe he's going to indicate a kind of mission accomplished type moment. Public relations, end of the war. We've won. We're successful. what do you make? What do you make of the economic indicators? Is he responding, let's say, to some of this really bleak, some of the bleak prospects from places like Europe, which are saying, listen, this is pandemic level, possibly.

1:11:57Yeah. And Oracle is probably what, you know, AI related plus a bunch of their money comes from Gulf states. They're also on the IRGC list of companies to target. Yeah, and so this is a clash between the ability of a president to manipulate markets and actual reality. And so actual reality with the Gulf countries, which are major financiers of Oracle, are struggling because they're getting bombed constantly and their ability to produce the thing and distribute the thing that undergirds their wealth is being undercut by the war. Trump thinks if he can tease that the war is going to end constantly, that that will kind of prop up the markets.

1:12:45But at some point, people actually need the things that are being produced and they're not able to get them. And it's not just fuel, you know, helium, which is a byproduct, you know, I guess it's a byproduct of the process of making natural gas or you need it. You know, don't take your scientific news from me. I only get science news from you. It's very hard to get helium now. We're entering a helium shortage. Liquid helium is essential to actually AI, but also MRI machines and all sorts of other advanced technology because it is able to be cooled to an extremely low temperature, which is essential to a lot of magnetic technology that's related to these high-end processing functions.

1:13:30Fertilizer, which is, now this, I can tell you something about. Spring is when you plant things. That I can tell you if you didn't know that. It's now spring. So there's two pieces of information. The fertilizer runs through the Strait of Hormuz. China has basically stopped exporting fertilizer because they realized they need it for their country. Dastardly Chinese. And so all around the world, farmers who are beginning the planting season do not have the nitrogen-rich fertilizers, phosphorus-rich fertilizers that they need. That is going to, again, helping you out here, mean that there's going to be less food, which means people are going to starve and people are going to pay more for food.

1:14:19Your quality of life is going to go down. And that's money that because you have to spend money on food. That's money that you're not going to have for other things. And let's take a look at these numbers that Joe Weisenthal pointed out yesterday. This is the next element. Will the employment situation compound what Ryan was just describing? Weisenthal, looking at the new Joltz report, said, wow, the hiring rate in February hit the same level it did in April 2020. So April 2020. What was going on in April 2020? Was anybody hiring in April 2020? No. Nobody was hiring. In other words, nobody is hiring today.

1:14:58Like right now. This is one of the things that... Got a new class of graduates about to enter the workforce. Right. Yeah. Yes. I feel so horrible for people who are graduating in May, entering the workforce, quote unquote workforce. We've seen this for about the last year, even before it was showing up in the data, right? Readers, viewers were telling us this. people in our lives were telling us this that like and hiring managers were telling us this that like there just are not job openings that unemployment is remaining fairly low relative to historical um highs but if you do not have a job trying to find one is like impossible and all of these companies are putting out fake job openings for data purposes.

1:15:49Have you seen this? Yes, I've absolutely seen this. And so people are then applying to all these fake jobs, of course, not getting an interview or anything else because it's not a real job. That should be illegal, by the way. And they're using AI in their HR departments. The people who are creating their resumes are using AI to brush them up. So it's AI talking to AI. and humans are just, as you see in that chart, just cut out of the equation. And they're feeling it. The humans, unlike the robots, are responding. Let's roll C4. I struggle every day and now I'm taking care of my mom who's older and denied simple, simple things like breathing meds.

1:16:33So gas, what are you going to do? So I don't eat this week because I have to take mom to the doctor's tomorrow. If you could pick one word to describe the economy, your economy, your economic situation right now under these conditions, one word to describe that. Desolate. So that was just a normal man from Florida that MS Now interviewed about the state of the country yesterday. And Ryan, one of the interesting things I saw in a report about TSA, I'm trying to remember which publication it was off the top of my head, But they did a great interview with a TSA agent who said he actually – was he part of a strike?

1:17:12Yes. It sounded like he was part of a strike. But he actually couldn't fill his gas tank because he hadn't had a paycheck to commute. Which when you put two and two together, it's completely obvious. But that's what gas – I mean these are – I passed a gas station this morning. It was like$520. And those are levels where obviously – I mean gas prices are always – it's a persistent problem for the American people. That's something they talked about in Cuba a lot, that people didn't have the gas to get to work. And Trump has always, always, like with the market, tied his political success to things like gas prices and the stock markets.

1:17:49So maybe that explains whatever he's going to say tonight. We don't know yet. But the pressures are obvious probably to anybody outside. When they're obvious people in D.C., you know they're bad. When Washington is talking about the economic pressures, you know they're bad. Yeah, and airlines are canceling a bunch of flights because in order to, like, you know, let's say they sold a plane load full of tickets at 300 bucks when jet fuel prices were what they were back in February. Now, to operate that flight, they might lose a million dollars. So they're like, you know what? I don't think we want to lose a million dollars.

1:18:26Now there's laws about whether or not they can actually do that. that I guarantee you they're combing through every possible mechanism they can to say, oh, it's not because that we're losing money on this flight. It's because of something we didn't foresee. Whatever it is, don't worry about it. You're just like, oh, your flight's canceled. Now, if you want to read, here's$300 credit if you want to rebook. Here you go. It's going to cost you$1 ,500 now.

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