4/10/26: Trump Trashes Tucker, Mearsheimer Calls For Trump Surrender, Slotkin Lashes Out, Melania Epstein

24:11And I think some elements of the Iranian leadership kind of hope that's wrong. I think other elements of it hope that that's correct because there's a significant faction within the IRGC, it appears, that wants this to continue because they think they haven't quite extracted enough pain to make this something that the West doesn't want to do again. you know, for decades. And I think Israel continuing to bomb Lebanon is kind of fortifying their position. Yeah. So look, obviously we didn't we didn't deter them from war in the future because we didn't even deter them from doing war on Wednesday. And that will and that will impact also what the negotiators, the Iranian negotiators are able to agree to because they know they have to be able to justify it, not just to the IRGC, but to a population that is going to have a much more sort of hardline logic at this point as well, since they've been able to achieve more with, you know, through overt warfare, aggressive warfare than they ever were able to achieve through attempts at diplomatic negotiations.

25:17And that's just the sad reality. Yeah. And to that same point, we had multiple Trump true social statements over the last couple of days that were keeping troops in the region. He's literally said they're restocking, they're resupplying. So, you know, if they are going to start this back up again, it could be under that same sort of pretense that we've seen before. I'm also curious, Ryan, maybe you have some insight in terms of from Iran's perspective, like what would have been the incentive for them to enter into these conversations or to continue them right now? Because the first truth social that we got from Donald Trump said the 10 point plan that we received from Iran is going to be the basis for negotiations moving forward.

25:57Then the next day we had Caroline Levitt come out and say, No, no, no. That plan was a complete joke. We threw it in the trash. So like if you're Iran, are you viewing that as, OK, this is maybe just Trump posturing. This is bluster. He wants to just look like he's succeeding and we know what we're actually negotiating behind the scenes. Or like why even entertain these negotiations if it if the Trump administration is saying, no, no, no, the thing would be based the entirety of this plan on. We actually threw in the trash. Yeah, what Jeremy and Soros were telling him was that it was his mentioning of the 10-point plan that got them to agree to it.

26:32And that they understand, as you said, that everything after that is just flailing. Because they also recognize that this is the most powerful country, maybe in the history of the world, negotiating its defeat against a modest power. and that's going to require um all sorts of gymnastics to to kind of cover up the obvious humiliation of it and so they they are they're you know they're they're smart cats like they understand that they they know that there's going to be um contortions between now and because like like trump's contortions are going to be more kind of ridiculous than anybody else's But think about it, like, you just can't message that white is black or black is white without looking ridiculous.

27:25Right. And so it's going to be a challenge. Ryan's saying smart cats as Crystal's cat appears on screen. Right, as Salem makes an appearance. Dramatic entrance.

27:37Saagar Enjeti:Emily, we are about to get to Professor. And the cat stands in for Iran in all these Chinese videos, too. maybe an appearance in the next lego video um from salem but uh emily we have one last truth to get to before professor john meersheimer here i of course uh i'm speaking about trump calling out tucker uh megan kelly and alex jones this is and sure yeah the whole crew um this is way too long to read. So I'll just read a sentence or two here. But it says, I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact, for years, especially by the fact that they think it's wonderful for Iran, the number one state sponsor of terror, to have a nuclear weapon because they have one thing in common, low IQs.

28:27Saagar Enjeti:They're stupid people. They know it. Their families know it. And everyone else knows it too. Look at their past. Look at the record. They don't have what it takes and they never did. They've all been thrown off by television, lost their shows and aren't even invited on TV because nobody cares about them. They're nut jobs, troublemakers and will say anything necessary for some free and cheap publicity. Your reaction, Em? It's so funny. You missed the funniest part of it, which is that he corrects Candace Owens on Brigitte Macron, not only being a woman, but being a very beautiful woman. More beautiful.

29:00A more beautiful woman than Candace. Than Candace. Full Trump Trump full woke on this one. It's also so funny that his standard for what counts as legitimacy is always television. Like whether you are invited on television, like just fantastic. I do think like on a serious note, it should remind us that those are the obstacles people who break with the administration over this ridiculous war find themselves up against. And I mean, it's it's easy to laugh at it because this is exactly what you would expect from Donald Trump. But it's not just Trump. I'm sure it's like Trump allies. I know it's Trump allies who, you know, privately, publicly will try to shame anybody who breaks with them on this ridiculous war because they're insecure about it.

29:44They know it's unpopular. And the remixes have been absolute fire. If you haven't heard of them. tells me everything i need to know right there stupid people families know it i don't care

30:01we also got word that uh tim pool is still on the good list though he apparently got a call from trump before trump posted this truth to tell him what a good friend he is so but did you see what tim pool said afterwards no what did he say he's trolling he's trolling though Who? Tim Pool? Yeah, he's trying to farm engagement. So he's like pretending to be critical of Trump right now. Yeah. Oh, he's not? No. No. He can't trust his Twitter feed. All he has left is Tim Pool, who you cannot trust to do anything other than just entertainment. And Mark Levin. Well. Oh, I said this is trolling where he says that does it.

30:38I am done. This is the last straw. I'm so angry. Yeah. Because it's crass and seeing that he's responding to. Yeah. He does this all the time. Yeah. So, Emily, like, literally, though, other than Tim Pool, who, like, serious question, who does Trump have left? Fox News. So Fox News. Shapiro. Shapiro. There's Newsmax, right? Fox News. I'm sure Newsmax has been pretty supportive of it. Oh, yeah. But, yeah, that's the thing. So Shapiro and Daily Wire.

31:02Saagar Enjeti:Walsh. Walsh is out. No. Yeah, Walsh is out. He's arguing with his Daily Wire homies. And then Shapiro is apparently bleeding tens of thousands of subscribers. Shapiro, Fox News. and what purchases Fox News have left? It's Trump and Trump. Oh, with the boomers? Huge. Yeah. Still huge. So Trump and the boomers are now 75 plus. But I mean, look, Gen X is actually the most pro-Trump generation. Well, unfortunately for him, we don't have much power or we don't have many numbers either. Nobody cares. That's the worst sign for him yet. The last generation that's useful to you politically. Gen X. Is Professor John Mearsheimer, is he Gen X or Boomer?

31:49Saagar Enjeti:He's a boomer. Well, then we'll see. Why don't we bring him in right now and we'll see where he lands with all this stuff. Crystal, why don't you introduce the professor here when I bring him in? If you are a founder or a freelancer or the friend who always says, hey, you know what? What if I started that? This is for you. I'm telling you I had nothing to my name. I didn't know a single person in New York. And somehow I'm dressed by Oscar de la Renta walking down that red carpet. This month, we sit down with entrepreneurs and creators who actually did it, who turned this scary leap into a business, a paycheck, and a life they are proud of.

32:24Direct center of our happiness or our regrets is whether or not we're taking action on the things that matter to us. They're not selfish. They're so important. They actually lead to our greatest contributions because when we're living fulfilled, we actually show up better everywhere. We lead better, we're better friends, we're better relationships and collaborators and all those things because we have passion about the things we're doing. If you're trying to build something of your own this year, join us in these conversations that will make you braver and smarter with your money. Listen to Dos Amigos as part of the Michael Tura Podcast Network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

33:01Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Konky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called the 10 21 podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the world cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 10 21 podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

33:37Hey, Ernest, what's up? Look, money is something we all deal with, but financial literacy is what helps turn income into real wealth. On each episode of the podcast, Earn Your Leisure, we break down the conversations you need to understand money, investing and entrepreneurship. From stocks and real estate to credit, business and generational wealth, we translate complex financial topics into real conversations everyone can understand. Because the truth is, most people were never taught how money really works. But once you understand a system, you can start to build within it. That means ownership, smarter investing, and creating opportunities not just for yourself, but for the next generation.

34:15If you want to learn how to build wealth, understand the markets, and think like an owner, Earn Your Leisure is the podcast for you. Listen to Earn Your Leisure on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

34:30We are very fortunate to be joined this morning by Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago. Great to see you again, sir. Glad to be here. So just off the top, you know, what is your expectations for what might come out of these diplomatic meetings in Islamabad this weekend? Well, I mean, it's important to realize that all we're trying to do at this point is get the ceasefire in place. And once that happens, then we'll have the serious negotiations. And the mere fact that we're having so much trouble getting the ceasefire in place makes one wonder where the negotiations are going to lead, even if they're going to get started.

35:12It seems clear to me that the Iranians will not engage in serious negotiations regarding the ceasefire. They may, you know, talk, but they're not going to engage in serious negotiations regarding the ceasefire until Iran, excuse me, until Israel stops striking at Hezbollah. It's just that simple. And Israel has, or at least it thinks it has, a vested interest in continuing to target Hezbollah, all for the purposes of undermining the ceasefire and in turn undermining negotiations. So I think the$64 ,000 question is whether the United States, which is desperate to end this war, will be so desperate that it will be willing to lean on Netanyahu in a really big way and get him to stop attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon.

36:16But until that happens, this is going nowhere. Now, if the opposite happens and Netanyahu insists on continuing to attack Hezbollah and it brings the United States back into war, what are the consequences of that for the U .S.-Israel relationship? And as somebody who's studied the Israel lobby longer than most of us have even been alive, like what would the what would a breakup between the American people, the American public and the idea of supporting Israel due to the U.S.-Israel relationship? What is there? Does that matter at all? Sure. I mean, huge damage has already been done because it's very clear.

37:01In fact, it becomes clearer by the day that the Israelis bamboozled us into this war, that they led Trump to decide to attack on February 28th. And it's clearly a failed war. I mean, this was a catastrophic blunder on our part. And the Israelis are responsible for that. So what Trump is now trying to do is shut the war down. And what are the Israelis doing? The Israelis are doing everything they can to prevent us from shutting the war down and to make it go on. This is going to do further damage to Israel's reputation in the United States. And the problem that the Israelis face is that we have this alternative media sphere now.

37:50And, of course, your show is a perfect example of that, where people talk about what Israel is up to and what the U.S.-Israeli relationship has resulted in and so forth and so on in ways that do enormous damage to Israel and the U.S.-Israeli relationship because people get to see the basic facts. That didn't used to be the case before we had this alternative media sphere. So this is doing enormous damage to Israel's reputation in the United States. It's making the lobby's job in the United States much more difficult than it ever was. As I like to say, when Steve and I wrote the original article on the lobby in 2006, and then we wrote the book in 2007, I don't think either one of us ever imagined that we would be at the point we are now at today.

38:48The lobby has been so badly wounded. The U.S.-Israeli relationship is really in tatters, at least in the public mind. And I think moving forward, the situation only gets worse because Israel will behave in crazier and crazier ways, and more and more Americans will realize that. And they'll be well aware of what this escapade in Iran has led to. I'm curious. Sorry, Emily. I'm curious what you make of the landscape of leverage going into these talks that the U.S. administration has. Trump obviously claiming that Iran has been completely decimated, defeated. They have no military, etc. You know, Iran, in the meantime, still retains the capacity to strike at Israel, U.S.

39:34assets in the region, controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Who do you think has more leverage going into this? Where do you see these talks potentially going in terms of any sort of framework for a possible deal? Yeah, that is an enormously important question that you just asked. And my view has long been that Iran has a vested interest in prolonging the war. Or to put it in different terms, prolonging the closing of the strait. the fact is that what is happening here is that the situation in the international economy is getting worse and worse by the day and as almost everybody knows if you project out two or three months where the strait remains closed the damage to the world economy will be enormous This means that the longer the strait is closed, the more leverage the Iranians have over Donald Trump.

40:37Trump, on the other hand, has a profound interest in ending this war as quickly as possible to make sure that the damage is limited. And just to go back to what happened on Monday with Trump's two tweets The one in the morning where he threatened to wipe Iran off the face of the earth And make it so that Iran could never come back from the dead I mean, this is a genocidal threat of the first order As almost everybody knows The idea that an American president was making a threat of that sort would have been unthinkable before the morning of April 6th. But anyway, that shows his desperation. Then what happens is at the end of the day, at the end of the working day, he issues another tweet and he says that we're going to not attack and we're going to start negotiations and there's going to be a ceasefire.

41:42And what's truly remarkable about the second tweet that night is he says that we accept the Iranians 10 point plan. You remember there are two plans on the table. One is the American plan, which is the 15 point plan. And that has all the maximalist demands of the United States and Israel. And then there's the 10-point plan, which is the Iranian plan, which has their demands, which are maximalist Iranian demands. And he says that it is the 10-point plan, he says in the tweet that evening, is a workable basis for negotiation. Not the 15-point plan, the 10-point plan. This is remarkable. And then he says, furthermore, in the tweet that almost all of the points of contention between the two sides have been worked out.

42:43If you think about what he said that morning, that's desperation. And then if you think about what he said that evening, the concessions that he's willing to make are really quite remarkable. And what's going on here is that behind calls doors, they're in deep panic mode. They understand full well that the international economy might go off a cliff if they don't shut this one down immediately and then begin to repair the damage and do everything possible to return to something approximating the status quo ante. They understand this. So we're desperate. But, of course, if you flip back to the other side, the Iranians, this all tells you the Iranians are in the driver's seat and they have a vested interest in prolonging this.

43:27So if I were playing Iran's hand, I might sit down today in Islamabad. But I would say, listen, folks, we're not getting a ceasefire until Israel stops pounding Hezbollah. And it's up to you, the United States, to decide whether or not you want to take the international economy off a cliff or whether you want to appease Prime Minister Netanyahu. It's your choice. That's where we are. Or whether you want to do ground troops, because that's really the only other option. That's what I was going to ask, Professor, is Donald Trump now talking about the nuclear dust, as he calls it, the hundreds of pounds of enriched uranium.

44:12And the Iranians have, as we were just discussing, leverage in the form of the Strait of Hormuz. So for Israel, as they pressure Trump over the negotiations, Iranians are reportedly considering whether to even show up as the Lebanon bombing continues. But let's say that happens. They do show up. What on earth would an off ramp for Trump look like that also would involve getting Netanyahu on board with it? That doesn't involve either going back to war with ground troops or Iran operating a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz and dealing with the enriched uranium, quote, nuclear dust that he's talking about.

44:54I mean, it just I can't I can't conceive of what that might look like. And I think this is what you're speaking to. But if they try to push on the hundreds of pounds of enriched uranium, what leverage exists possibly for them to barter? Well, first of all, they have no leverage. We have no leverage. You raise the possibility of ground troops. We have 7000 combat troops in the region. There's all this talk about 50 ,000 troops in the region. Almost all those troops are not combat troops, and you can't go to war on the ground against Iran with anything but combat troops. You've got 7 ,000 combat troops.

45:395 ,000 of them are on giant ships that can't get close to the coast of Iran. How are you going to offload those troops? And the 2 ,000 paratroopers and the 82nd Airborne up against a million-man army, This is not a serious option. There is no ground option. I mean, you want to think about where we are militarily in this situation. First of all, we have 13 bases, 13 major bases in the region. According to the New York Times, all 13 of those bases are either destroyed or badly damaged. We have a huge naval armada in the region. That naval armada cannot get close to the coast of Iran, much less the Strait of Hormuz.

46:28So it's parked way out in the ocean, far away from Iran. Then there's the Air Force. In this rescue mission that just took place, where they got the second pilot, we lost more aircraft that day than we have lost in any single day since the Vietnam War. This was just to rescue one down to pilot. We lost more aircraft that one day than we have lost any day since the Vietnam War. Then there's the whole business of our missile inventory. We're running out of defensive missiles. We're running out of high-end munitions. We have interests all around the world, especially in East Asia. And we're using up this rather small inventory of boutique weapons that we have.

47:24Where does that leave us? And then there's the question of our allies. We can't protect our allies. In fact, we've turned our allies, these are the GCC states, the Gulf states, into giant magnets for Iranian drones and Iranian ballistic missiles. Our military performance here has been abysmal. The idea that we have a military option. So this gets to your question, what's the off-ramp here? There's only one off-ramp here, and that's surrender. And what the actual terms of the surrender are have to be worked out. But this is what President Trump said in his tweet on Monday night. He said, we accept the 10-point plan as a workable basis.

48:16Go read the 10-point plan. It's all the maximalist demands. Furthermore, with regard to Netanyahu, Netanyahu doesn't want to let the ceasefire come into place. And he certainly doesn't want to see an end to the war because this will be a catastrophic defeat. for Israel, as big a defeat as it will be for Donald Trump, it will be a far worse defeat for Israel and especially for Prime Minister Netanyahu. So he's working overtime to undermine the ceasefire and prevent negotiations. And the$64 ,000 question is whether or not Trump is willing to lean on Netanyahu to get a ceasefire. And then he's going to have to lean on Netanyahu and he's going to have to work against the lobby to negotiate a settlement.

49:07You want to remember, look at all the trouble we're having getting a ceasefire. You can imagine how much difficulty Trump is going to have trying to negotiate a settlement that reflects the fact that we lost this war. But that's where we are. If you are a founder or a freelancer or the friend who always says, hey, you know what, what if I started that? This is for you. I'm telling you, I had nothing to my name. I didn't know a single person in New York and somehow I'm dressed by Oscar de la Renta walking down that red carpet. This month we sit down with entrepreneurs and creators who actually did it, who turned this scary leap into a business, a paycheck and a life they are proud of.

49:47Direct center of our happiness or our regrets is whether or not we're taking action on the things that matter to us. They're not selfish. They're so important. They actually lead to our greatest contributions because when we're living fulfilled, we actually show up better everywhere. We lead better, we're better friends, we're better relationships and collaborators and all those things because we have passion about the things we're doing. If you're trying to build something of your own this year, join us in these conversations that will make you braver and smarter with your money. Listen to Dos Amigos as part of the Michael Tura Podcast Network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

50:24Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Konky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called the 10 21 podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the world cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 10 21 podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

51:00Hey, Ernest, what's up? Look, Money is something we all deal with, but financial literacy is what helps turn income into real wealth. On each episode of the podcast, Earn Your Leisure, we break down the conversations you need to understand money, investing and entrepreneurship. From stocks and real estate to credit, business and generational wealth, we translate complex financial topics into real conversations everyone can understand. Because the truth is, most people were never taught how money really works. But once you understand a system, you can start to build within it. That means ownership, smarter investing, and creating opportunities not just for yourself, but for the next generation.

51:38If you want to learn how to build wealth, understand the markets, and think like an owner, Earn Your Leisure is the podcast for you. Listen to Earn Your Leisure on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

51:53I wanted to add one point real quickly to your observation about the dwindling missile, ballistic missile interceptors. I had a piece yesterday with my colleague Murtaz Hussein over at DropSite yesterday. Oh, there it is. Griffin or whoever pulled that up, can you scroll down a little bit? Because there's a really interesting line in here that is relevant to the U.S.-Israeli relationship. So right there, right there. So the White House referred questions. So what we reported is that they are, according to a Trump administration official, the Israelis are down to double-digit ballistic missile interceptors and are now relying almost exclusively on the Navy, U.S.

52:33Navy, to prevent ballistic missile attacks and are letting a lot more strikes go through just because they have to. But the White House referred questions about the dwindling stockpile to the Israeli military. Quote, refer you to the IDF, said a White House spokesperson. Now, so I went to the IDF and they said, we're looking into it. And they kept for hours, we're looking into, we're looking at like, like they were going to go count them and come back to me and give me a number. They eventually didn't have a fulsome comment. If they provide one, we'll add it to the article. But I thought that was such an interesting dynamic to go to the White House and say, you know, we're told by an official at the White House that the Israelis are almost out of ballistic missile interceptors.

53:14And they say, go ask the IDF about that. I don't know what to say. It is just kind of hard to believe. But, you know, just a couple points, Ryan, and you know this issue better than I do. But the Israelis say in their press that 80 percent of the ballistic missiles coming from Iran are getting through. This is truly remarkable. 80 percent of the missiles are getting through and they are running out of defensive missiles. And this is hardly surprising if we go back to last year. You remember the 12-day war? That war ended in good part because Netanyahu asked Trump to stop it because the Israelis there were running out of defensive missiles.

54:02And this war has gone on, you know, well beyond 12 days. And it's hardly surprising that they're running out of defensive missiles. And by the way, we are as well. And to make matters worse, we have pulled THAAD missiles and Patriot missiles, as you well know, out of East Asia. In fact, that marine expeditionary unit, the first one to arrive in the Gulf, came out of Japan. What this means is that the United States, which has been trying to pivot to Asia to contain China as a result of this war, is pivoting away from Asia. Think about that. We are pivoting away from Asia. Think about what that means for our allies.

54:45Furthermore, just think about Trump's behavior since this war started on February 28th. I guess one could argue his behavior even before the war started. But what is this signal to our allies in East Asia? If you're Taiwan, if you're South Korea, if you're Japan, can you depend on the United States anymore? I mean, it's not only the fact that they're pivoting away. It's just the basic judgment of the Trump administration. This looks like the gang that can't shoot straight. And that's not overstating the case. In fact, if anything, it's understating the case. It's just truly remarkable how incompetent these people are.

55:26And just to go back to Monday, here we are, Monday morning, you know, threatening genocide against Iran. And then at the end of the day, do an 180 degree turn and basically saying, we'll accept most of Iran's demands. Just it's remarkable where we are.

55:49Saagar Enjeti:Well, let's talk about the Asian allies for a second. I wanted to throw up from our other host who couldn't be here, Sagar, who had some thoughts on this. He says,

56:28Saagar Enjeti:Does this sort of put the Taiwan question to bed? And are we going to see movement from China and Taiwan into some sort of reunification process as an outcome of this war? Well, just start with South Korea. I was on South Korean public television the other day, and I spent a lot of time sort of preparing myself for that conversation. And if you look at the South Korean situation in a very important way, the fact that we're pivoting away from East Asia matters less than the economic damage that is being done and might. be done to South Korea if this war is not shut down. It's very clear that South Korea is being hurt badly by this war.

57:22A huge amount of its imported oil, which it's heavily dependent on, doesn't have oil of its own, comes through the Gulf. And they're in desperate straits. And the agricultural consequences of this is just not to be underestimated. So countries like South Korea and other countries in East Asia. India is another example. Indonesia is another example. The Philippines is another example. These are countries that feel like they're close to the precipice, not militarily, economically. And something has to be done to end this war. And again, this in part, maybe in good part, explains why President Trump is in deep panic mode, because he understands this as well, because he's certainly hearing from these countries.

58:08So let's just put aside the whole business of pivoting away from East Asia. The economic consequences of this are being felt in East Asia in a really profound way. And that's what explains the South Koreans talking to the Iranians about getting permission to send ships headed for South Korea through the strait. Then there's the military dimension. And this brings in places like Taiwan as well as South Korea and Japan. First of all, if you're South Korea and Japan, how do you think about getting nuclear weapons at this point in time? Isn't the main lesson of this whole war that you better have a nuclear deterrent of your own, whether you're Iran, South Korea or Japan?

58:57Or at least a straight-of-Hormuz deterrent. Yeah. A waterway deterrent. Well, and I wanted to ask you, so you said earlier that effectively the only off ramp for Trump is surrender. And I agree with that. I don't see any other option. And so whether it's now or a month from now or two months from now or a year from now, we are very likely to end up with something like the Iranian 10 points becoming a new reality, including a new status quo with regard to the Strait of Hormuz. How does that change the world? How does that change the U.S.'s standing in the world? Has that changed the Israeli state in the world, China?

59:32Like, what does the world look like if we end up with Iran as this now emerging fourth power, tremendously, frankly, wealthy from the tolls they'll be able to charge and having demonstrated this incredible deterrent ability through their control of the Strait of Hormuz? And I'd toss in Russia as well, Professor. Well, the Russians have obviously benefited enormously from this, at least in terms of the war in Ukraine. I mean, the amount of weaponry that we can give to Ukraine is going to be much less as a risk of this war. And furthermore, Putin has benefited in the short term economically. I would say that I think from China's point of view and from Russia's point of view, the short-term effects of this war are all positive for sure.

1:00:22But neither one of those countries has any interest whatsoever in seeing the international economy go off a cliff. And I believe that this is the principal reason the Chinese have been putting pressure on the Iranians to go to Islamabad and try to negotiate a settlement to this war. The Chinese do not want this war to go on and on, nor do the Russians, because it could crash the international economy. We could have a worldwide depression that looks worse than what happened in the 1920s. That's what we're talking about here. So I think in the short term, this is good for the Russians, good for the Chinese, but they understand in the long term that's not the case.

1:01:05Now, what was your question, Crystal? I was asking about if we have a final settlement along the lines of the Iranian 10 points, including a new status quo in the Strait of Hormuz. How does that change the world? Well, let me just say one thing. You do not want to talk about Iran as if it's going to emerge as a new great power from this conflict. We did enormous damage to the Iranian economy before February 28th. And we have done enormous damage to Iran, to its infrastructure since February 28th. And it's going to take them many, many years and many billions of dollars to begin to recover. So this is a country that is in many ways in terrible shape.

1:01:57They have two great levers, though, that give them huge influence in the region and in the world. One is they control the Strait of Hormuz. And number two, they have a huge inventory of ballistic missiles, both short-range and long-range. They have a huge inventory of cruise missiles and an even bigger inventory of drones. And they can use those weapons very effectively. So there's no question that the Iranians are going to come out of this war having more leverage over politics in the region and around the world once the conflict ends. But it's very difficult to say at this point in time how the war will finally end.

1:02:46In other words, if you look at the 10-point plan and you look at the 10 demands that the Iranians have made, how many of those are the Americans going to accept? For example, the Iranians demand that the United States leave the region, that we get out of the region with our military forces. Are we going to do that? If we don't do that, how do we think about those 13 bases? Do we go back to those 13 bases and rebuild them? Will the Gulf states that hosted those bases allow us to do that? These are all open questions, and they have huge consequences for what the architecture, the security architecture in the region looks like.

1:03:31So I think one thing that is clear is that Iran will be more powerful for sure after February 28th than it was before. I think it's also clear that relations between the GCC countries and the United States will never be the same. And we will not have a close alliance with them in the future the way we have had in the past. And I think as far as Israel is concerned, this is just another major defeat for Israel. One of the most interesting aspects of how the mainstream media reports Israel's actions in these various wars is that they're always portrayed as great victories. Israel is always seen as doing very well.

1:04:21Their situation is seen to be constantly improving and so forth and so on. They're remaking the Middle East. I think this is fundamentally wrong. First of all, with regard to Hezbollah, they have not defeated Hezbollah. Hezbollah has beaten them up badly in southern Lebanon. They were talking about going all the way up to the Latani River and controlling all of southern Lebanon up to the Latani River. This is the Israelis. But the IDF has had a devil of a time fighting with Hezbollah, and Hezbollah has actually been winning. And the Israelis have retreated to a narrow buffer zone on the northern border of Israel.

1:05:07And in terms of the bombing, they can bomb Beirut. They can bomb Tehran. But it doesn't ever lead to anything positive. And I believe the principal reason that the Israelis are interested in negotiations now with the Lebanese government is they want the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah because they can't, the Israelis can't disarm Hezbollah. So in terms of the war against Hezbollah, they have not won. Against Iran, this is a colossal defeat for Israel. With regard to Gaza, they have not defeated Hamas. Hamas still is there. It is still fighting. With regard to the Houthis, they're still there and they'll grow more powerful over time.

1:05:58With regard to Iranian nuclear weapons or Iranian nuclear enrichment capability, that, you know, that's all still on the table. So the Israelis are in deep trouble. And furthermore, they've poisoned their relationship with the United States. Where this all ends up, as we were talking about at the beginning of the show, is hard to say. But there's no question that there has been a significant deterioration in U.S.-Israeli relations. So I think that the idea that Israel is going to come out of this as the dominant force in the region is simply wrong. Israel has been badly damaged. And it has no real strategy available for fixing the situation.

1:06:46So I don't know the specifics of how this plays itself out because I don't know what the end of the negotiation process will look like. But I think there's no question that our influence in the region is going to go down. Israel's influence is going to go down and Iran's is going to go up. But again, I don't think you want to overestimate the position that Iran is in simply because of the huge amount of damage that we've done to that country.

1:07:12Saagar Enjeti:Well, Professor, this has been illuminating, and I did just want to flag on your way out that the president, in a recent truth, seems to agree with you. A recent truth posted this morning, world's most powerful reset, President DJT. So it seems like he agrees with you, Professor. I don't know whether I should be happy about that or not. Sign of the times, I guess. Yeah, sign of the times. Well, thank you so much, Professor, for joining us. Any final words before you leave? No, I just hope we get a ceasefire, and then I hope they reach a quick conclusion to the negotiations so we can put this war behind us.

1:07:58I mean, when I think about all the damage that's being done around the world, also it would be really wonderful if somehow we could lean on the Israelis to stop running around the Middle East murdering people. It's truly amazing the number of people that the Israelis often in cahoots with us end up, you know, destroying huge chunks of countries like Lebanon and Iran and killing huge numbers of people. It would be really wonderful if we could put an end to all of this and create some sort of peace in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

1:08:39Saagar Enjeti:All right. Well, on that note, thank you so much, Professor. I'm sure that we will be asking for more from you very soon. And until then, enjoy the rest of your weekend. Thank you. You too, as well. And thank you very much for having me on the show. It's always our pleasure. Thanks, Professor. If you are a founder or a freelancer or the friend who always says, hey, you know what? What if I started that? This is for you. I'm telling you I had nothing to my name. I didn't know a single person in New York. And somehow I'm dressed by Oscar de la Renta walking down that red carpet. This month, we sit down with entrepreneurs and creators who actually did it, who turned this scary leap into a business, a paycheck and a life they are proud of.

1:09:20Direct center of our happiness or our regrets is whether or not we're taking action on the things that matter to us. They're not selfish. They're so important. They actually lead to our greatest contributions because when we're living fulfilled, we actually show up better everywhere. We lead better. We're better friends. We're better relationships and collaborators and all those things because we have passion about the things we're doing. If you're trying to build something of your own this year, join us in these conversations that will make you braver and smarter with your money. Listen to Dos Amigos as part of the My Cultura Podcast Network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:09:58Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro1021. And I'm Konky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:10:34Hey, earners, what's up? Look, money is something we all deal with, but financial literacy is what helps turn income into real wealth. On each episode of the podcast, Earn Your Leisure, we break down the conversations you need to understand money, investing and entrepreneurship. From stocks and real estate to credit, business and generational wealth, we translate complex financial topics into real conversations everyone can understand. Because the truth is, most people were never taught how money really works. But once you understand a system, you can start to build within it. That means ownership, smarter investing, and creating opportunities not just for yourself, but for the next generation.

1:11:12If you want to learn how to build wealth, understand the markets, and think like an owner, Earn Your Leisure is the podcast for you. Listen to Earn Your Leisure on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:11:27Saagar Enjeti:All right. Welcome to the liberated second half of the Friday show that Ryan liberated. He stormed the steel and has set free the second half of the Friday show. That's right. So I'm going to be able to. Sagar sounded so. Ryan posted this clip also on Instagram, Ryan, which was impressive. Julian taught me how to do that. Oh, good. Okay. Sagar sounded like gritted teeth. He was announcing this through gritted teeth. Ryan runs this place now. Someone's got to make decisions around here. And, you know, Sagar, if you want to make decisions on the Friday show, you're welcome to join at any time until then.

1:12:13I just like how I hadn't even been like read in on that. This was a possibility before Ryan just announced it on you guys. I didn't know this was happening. It was it was floated on one of our production calls as a hypothetical. And I was like, oh, Ryan already said that this morning. So it's happening. It's done. he's learned he is like benjamin that's in yahoo he has learned a dangerous lesson about how to negotiate it's a truth yeah you just create facts on the ground and then it is it is what it is but anyway we're grateful to be able to glad to be able to share the entire friday show with the

1:12:51Saagar Enjeti:whole world so absolutely um and on that note why don't we get to a little bit of uh crystal's best friend, Alyssa Slotkin, who has been, you know, doing town halls, potentially gearing up for a 2028 run. And there has been a tense town hall between a few people and Alyssa. And I'm going to play both of these videos back to back to get the full experience and then Crystal's reaction. So why don't we start with the first one here? Going back to what was said over here, you have not taken money from APAC, but pro-Israel lobbies and their donors have spent$4.5 million on your campaigns. But I do have a question unrelated to that.

1:13:35I just wanted to add that. So I'm curious why left-leaning media, well, I guess mainstream media and establishment Democrats are spending energy attacking influencers like Hassan Piker, as has been in the news lately, and why the Democratic establishment is just immune to criticizing Democratic leadership like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, who are some of the main drivers in the reason that the Democratic Party is at its lowest approval rating in history. Well, a couple of things. First, just to correct the record, I'm not sure what you're referring to on not AIPAC, but the Israel lobby. If you're equating Israel lobby to Jews, I got a problem with that.

1:14:25And that just like you wouldn't say, you know, the Iranian that, you know, Iranians, whatever happens, the Iranian government does is what Iranian Americans believe. I think it's really important, especially now, to make a distinction between the Israeli government and the choices that they're making and the average Jew. You're the only one claiming there's not a distinction in that back and forth.

1:14:51Saagar Enjeti:So that's the first one. And now I'd like to present the follow up. This was a second questioner that came right after that gentleman there. Let's take a listen. There was no indication that he was conflating those two. No, not at all. Quite the opposite. First off, I wanted to say I found your response to the gentleman in front of me offensively bad faith to conflate support for Israel while they are committing genocide. And while they just had a terror attack on Lebanon yesterday, killing almost 300 people, to conflate that with the Jewish identity. That is what anti-Semitism looks like. But my question is, I am so tired of the Democratic Party villainizing the left, villainizing progressives.

1:15:33And we've seen it here where they've tried to push away progressive voices. How can we empower those progressive voices? Because you said you want to be a big tent. But right now, you're not growing the tent. You're moving the tent away from its base. Okay, let's start. I'll go round, or maybe I'll start with you and come back. So what I take issue with is someone saying that I took$4.5 million from the pro-Israel lobby that's not AIPAC. I don't know what that is, but if that's counting Jewish donors and saying Jewish donors are somehow the same as pro-Israel lobby, I got a problem with that. And not just as an elected official, as a Jew.

1:16:13So I have no problem standing by that statement. In terms of the progressive wing of the party, look, I don't think there's anyone shoving anyone. Look at the election like in New York City. Wow. I mean, all I can say is good luck with your 2028 run, lady. Like, if you're already this fragile and lashing out like that at very basic and obvious questions where the Democratic base at this point is overwhelmingly anti-Israel, anti-APAC, they are going to be asking you about where you stand on these issues repeatedly. And if all you can do is immediately reach for insinuating that they're anti-Semites for even asking about it, like, this is just, this is not going to work.

1:17:01This is not going to work for you whatsoever. And in the most like theatrical, sanctimonious way that doesn't even give off a like ounce of authenticity or sincerity that like it's just going to the old talking points without ever appearing to have engaged in the recent discussion. You would think after her breaking points appearance, the senator would have tried to like really understand in good faith where people were coming from on this. And it honestly, from that exchange, looks like she's not familiar with the discourse and has just reflexively retreated to the old talking points. No, I think she's familiar with the discourse.

1:17:43I mean, what's interesting to me is when she asked, she she wanted to come on Breaking Points, right? She reached out to us. We're like, great, let's have you on. And we had that whole exchange. My impression in that exchange is she had realized that her lockstep pro-Israel stance was now anathema to the base. And she was trying to workshop some sort of a middle ground thing. And effectively, there is no way. Either you are, you know, supporting arms to a country that's funding a genocide, that's committing a genocide, or you're not. There's really not a middle ground that you can sort of carve out there.

1:18:16And so what I get from it, Ryan, is that she's sort of realized that and has decided, well, I'm going to I'm going to be more hardline pro-Zionist. And I don't know how these 2028 contenders are so incredibly delusional to think that there's a lane for that that exists within the Democratic base. But there's just not if you look at the numbers. And one other thing to add to this is there was a resolution being put forward at the DNC to, you know, to go off directly go after APAC and condemn APAC and, you know, say we shouldn't take APAC money. And that got shot down. Reportedly, there were two 2028 contenders who intervened to make sure that that resolution was ultimately spiked.

1:18:59And as I went through the list of like, who could it be? It is shocking to me how many. It's basically like almost any of them with, you know, except for like Ro Khanna and AOC, that would be potential suspects for getting involved to spike the anti-APAC resolution at the DNC. So this figure seems to be coming from TrackAPAC. And I've been going back and forth a bunch with TrackAPAC about their methodology because now that they're becoming, you know, a significant part of the conversation, I've been telling them, like, you need to tighten up and be clear about what you're saying here. And they're telling me that they're actually doing that.

1:19:38They're working on that. And so they delineated some of the money here. So she's 21, 22, 14 ,000. Now, California Jewish Democrats, this, they got dunked on because it's like, this is her exact point. And$250, is that a typo? But California Jewish Democrats, isn't this her point that you're flagging Jewish Democrats and calling them APAC? Turns out, no, this organization used to be called something like California Jewish Democrats for APAC or for Israel and just dropped the name. But they should be clear about this, knowing that they're under fire here. uh dmfi 4k joint action committees uh so j street 280 000 um pro israel america is kind of to the right of apac and nacpac i think they're kind of a little bit more to the right of apac but that's only a few hundred thousand here um to get to the four million you need this one down here lobby donors uh four million so that's a key question what do they mean by lobby donors um my understanding is they mean people who have donated to j street or apac um which will include a lot of evangelical christians but can also slot into slotkin's argument um so like is it if if it's true that you're saying anybody who donated to j street at any point is then forever going to be considered israel lobby like you got to be clear about that and let people decide whether or not they want to factor that in.

1:21:09That's my view. Yeah. Well, in fairness, though, I mean, Ryan, you can tell me if I'm wrong about this, but one of the strategies that AIPAC has been using since they recognize they're so toxic now in Democratic primary races in particular, is rather than having people donate through AIPAC, they have people donate separately, individually, who are known AIPAC donors. So, I mean, it is a tricky, it is tricky how to characterize that and how to get the right group here identified. And so there's a and there's a super PAC that has been getting in to kind of fight against APAC. And what what they've been trying to do is develop this algorithm to to try to find those donors.

1:21:50And because some some somebody might just give to J Street and not be part of like a big kind of APAC conspiracy. But you're right. APAC does do that. And so what they've been trying to do is say, okay, if on the same day, and because of like basically AI and Claude and others, like it's easier to start figuring this stuff out. okay on the if if you in the same cycle gave to um like steve scalise alissa slotkin you know you know or like uh you know hayley stevens or like any like these these like clear people that like apac is directing money to it isn't actually slotkin but let's so let's say at least you gave to hayley stevens some other apac candidate and then also scalise it's like and all of your donations are like all of these top APAC people.

1:22:39It's like, okay, we're tagging you as somebody who is clearly like part of this network. Cause you're right. APAC does this. They have these private links where they will send out an email to like thousands of people saying, here's a private link. We're not endorsing this person publicly, but we suggest that you do so you, that you give them the max donation. And for transparency, you want the public to know that this, that they're trying to evade public disclosure. So you so you now a track APAC is like two people or three people or something. They don't have they don't have that put together yet.

1:23:18I mean, I think they can get there. But until they do, it's going to be it's going to leave some kind of gray area, which then is going to allow Slotkin to be like, oh, you're just saying that I'm getting money from Jews. Right. Right. Right. But, you know, for her to say, like, if she was talking to the track APAC people and she had that response and disagreeing with them on their methodology, it's one thing. You have there were, I think, three different constituents here that asked her similar questions and to take them in the most bad faith and assume that they are intentionally lumping in every Jewish person who's ever donated to her and making this blanket statement.

1:23:57I mean, not only is it it's so it's really, really gross to throw around claims of bigotry that are unfounded. That is a very aggressive thing to do. And so you're insinuating that, you know, these people who want to know about where you stand and why you stand there to immediately hurl that accusation is just really gross. And also, you know, for her from a political standpoint, I think it's a very bad look because she just comes off super defensive and super fragile about a kind of question that she has to have anticipated receiving because she's a smart person. She's, you know, I definitely came away from that with from my exchange with her.

1:24:41She's a very intelligent person and she knows where the polls are. She knows what kind of questions she's going to get. And this is the best that you can come up with. You know, it's not I don't think politically it looks very good for her. Real quickly. Yeah, I totally agree with that. And in track APAC's defense, it is 100 percent true that APAC tries very hard to hide its involvement in supporting these candidates like that is a fact. And so that if if you want to expose their involvement, then you have to go figuring out how they're moving their money through. And if they make one mistake on that, you can't say, oh, the entire thing is bigoted and can be dismissed.

1:25:27It's like AIPAC has set up this trap by being so secretive about its money. If AIPAC would just do what every other lobby does and say, we support this person because they support our values and we're proud to endorse them. If they would just do that, we wouldn't need any of this. well they do it after their candidate wins actually this would be a decent place to talk about the polling if you want to well i just want to make a quick point about sorry i'll pull it up while you talk there's there's something interesting in this that she's trying to be this third way type candidate on culture war issues where she's trying to kind of reject the peak woke democratic party it's time to be normal yeah right but what's so interesting about that That is one of the big lessons.

1:26:13And like we talked about this during that time period, one of the big lessons is that it's very alienating and offensive when you use lump definition inflation terms of bigotry and assume that somebody who disagrees with you on a policy question is necessarily categorically a bigot. But that was a huge problem for Democrats during the 2020 era. It did alienate a lot of voters. There's polling on that. That was a real thing. And now to see her try to be someone who rejects that framework of the binary, you're either with us or you're a bigot, she's doing it to her own voters once again because they don't agree with her on a policy question.

1:26:58Well, and the Hassan thing fits in with that, too, because she would have been one of the I don't know if she specifically said this, but she would be the type to be like, Kamala should have gone on Rogan. We need to meet people where they're at, blah, blah, blah. And then it's like, OK, Hassan Piker, absolutely not.

1:27:11Saagar Enjeti:Yeah. She said on Bill Maher, we need to be alpha again. We need male alpha energy again, but but not Hassan. Yeah. Well, two quick things I'll add on that before we get to the polling. Number one, it's incredible to hear from somebody like Alyssa Slotkin, this, you know, attacking the conflation of the Jewish people with the state of Israel when the biggest perpetrator of that conflation has been the Israeli government and the U.S. government by extension of some of the most hardcore pro-Israel politicians in this country constantly conflating the actions of the Israeli government with the Jewish people as, you know, in its entirety.

1:27:46So, you know, I think there has been some element of an increase in anti-Semitism because of this intentional effort to confuse people as to that. And ironically, it's the left. It is the most hardcore pro-Palestine people, the most hardcore Israel critics who are constantly making an explicit effort to draw that distinction and say, no, no, no, we're not talking about Jewish people as a whole. We're talking about the Israeli government. So I found that to be incredible there. And then point number two that I think it's important for us to keep in mind is like the Israel lobby stuff is an important litmus test because I think people just get the feeling that if you're willing to openly take this money, you're kind of just admitting this baseline level of corruption that you're going to be engaging in as an elected representative.

1:28:30But the more important thing, to me at least, is the policy. It's are you going to cut off weapon shipments to Israel? Are you willing to sanction Israel? How do you view the U.S.-Israeli relationship moving forward? Because you may have some pro-Israel Democrats who say, oh, I'm not taking AIPAC money or I'm not taking any sort of pro-Israel money. And then their position on Israel is still horrendous from any left-wing perspective. So we've got to be specific about exactly what they're actually running on. If you are a founder or a freelancer or the friend who always says, hey, you know what?

1:29:03What if I started that? This is for you. I'm telling you I had nothing to my name. I didn't know a single person in New York. And somehow I'm dressed by Oscar de la Renta walking down that red carpet. This month, we sit down with entrepreneurs and creators who actually did it, who turned this scary leap into a business, a paycheck, and a life they are proud of. Direct center of our happiness or our regrets is whether or not we're taking action on the things that matter to us. They're not selfish. They're so important. They actually lead to our greatest contributions because when we're living fulfilled, we actually show up better everywhere.

1:29:37We lead better. We're better friends. We're better relationships and collaborators and all those things because we have passion about the things we're doing. If you're trying to build something of your own this year, join us in these conversations that will make you braver and smarter with your money. Listen to Dos Amigos as part of the Michael Tura Podcast Network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:30:21storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:30:35Hey, Ernest, what's up? Look, money is something we all deal with, but financial literacy is what helps turn income into real wealth. On each episode of the podcast, Earn Your Leisure, we break down the conversations you need to understand money, investing, and entrepreneurship. From stocks and real estate to credit, business, and generational wealth, we translate complex financial topics into real conversations everyone can understand. Because the truth is, most people were never taught how money really works. But once you understand a system, you can start to build within it. That means ownership, smarter investing, and creating opportunities not just for yourself, but for the next generation.

1:31:14If you want to learn how to build wealth, understand the markets, and think like an owner, Earn Your Leisure is the podcast for you. Listen to Earn Your Leisure on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:31:29Saagar Enjeti:So Ryan, we've got your polling here that I'm going to pull up. And Griffin, let me actually pull it up because I have a separate one that has the cross tabs with ages that I think you'll like. um so so to max point we actually so we we actually pulled this this specific question um so we zateo and drop site went out into um the field in michigan with with a poll and we did the top lines um i think it was we'll look at it we can look at it exactly but i think it was 22, 22, 21 at that, you know, between the three candidates and with Al-Sayed like one point behind the other two, or it was 23, 23, 22.

1:32:10Either way, it's like a dead heat. But we asked some interesting questions as we do. We asked about Hassan Piker, but hold that for one second. So to Mac's point, I asked this question because I wanted to get, I wanted to see where this is Democratic primary voters in Michigan. And I wanted to test Mac's proposition here. So we said, so do you agree or disagree with the following statement? If a candidate is not willing to stand up to APAC, I am less likely to trust them to stand up for Michiganders on other issues. And across the board, so if you look down here to agree at the bottom, across the board, The minimum is kind of plus 40, and that's moderates.

1:32:57So moderate Democrats, likely voters in the primary, by a 55 to 15 margin, with the rest saying they don't know, say that yes, it is a proxy to them for whether they will stand up for other things. obviously under 45 people under 45 it's plus 54 um overall the top line plus 49 so 62 percent of democratic primary voters in michigan say that how you stand up when it comes to apac determines for them whether or not you're going to fight for them on other issues and this is this is the most interesting sorry real quick the most interesting thing though from that crosstab to me, though, Ryan, is where you have you ask people, OK, you know, if it's the El Syed voter, how do they feel about it versus McMorrow versus Stevens?

1:33:52And I think people mostly know, but El Syed is the like Bernie left candidate. McMorrow, you can kind of think of like Elizabeth Warren. She's trying to be the Goldilocks candidate. And then Stevens is like the Chuck Schumer picked backed candidate. And, you know, McMorrow has been trying to, again, find this middle ground on Israel and use language that signals she's with the base, but not totally go in there. And she has thrown in on the side of Hassan Piker is the line too far and kind of affiliated herself more with the Stevens-Schumer side of the equation. And so if you look at these numbers here, you see for the El-Sayed voters, 91.

1:34:32It's plus 91 for, yeah, no, if you are not going to stand up to APAC, like I want nothing to do with you. And McMorrow and Stevens, interestingly, are at the same level of only plus 33. Right. So you can see that already McMorrow is being more associated by the electorate with the, you know, more pro-Israel, more pro-Zionist side, even though she's tried to kind of split the difference here. That's very interesting to see. Yeah. But one other thing I was just going to add on to that is I think it's, you know, incredible that people like, you know, Slotkin frame themselves as the moderates on this question when according to their own base of voters, they're actually the extremists on this question.

1:35:13They're in the minority when it comes to this. Yeah. They're the fringe. Absolutely. So here's a related question. um, the lower actions that a candidate could take for each, please say if the action would make you more or less likely to support the candidate receives political donations, uh, from AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups. Uh, and so you can just see the bloodbath at the bottom there, um, with the, uh, you know, more, um, more, more likely negative means they're less, you know, you see some it's it's weird like the way it phrases but the negative means they don't they don't like this so if you yeah if you look at Stevens people are 26 percent less likely to support or 49 percent less likely 29 26 percent 49 to 23 you guys see it people are less likely to support Stevens Stevens voters by 49 to 23 if she takes APAC money so So that's Stephen's own voters.

1:36:16For McMorrow, it's 65 to eight. So if McMorrow starts to be seen as the candidate who is taking APAC money or is supported by APAC aligned, then now for Syed is 86 to one. I know exactly. Imagine being the person who's like, I love APAC and I'm voting for Abdul El-Syed. That person is not paying attention to the poll and is just like just going through it. Do you want to let's without the Hassan? We got we got some Hassan questions here. The like most people don't know who Hassan is like that's that's the that's the takeaway from this. Now, when it comes to people under 45 years old, you've got only 18.

1:37:09Here we go. Under 45, we're like most familiar with him, obviously. So the question, you know, should he do the event with Hassan Piker? Plus 10 is what it comes out to. 40 % approve, 30 % disapprove. The rest don't know. But when it comes to people under 45, it's plus 18. The only people who really don't like it are Stevens voters. So he disapproved by 27 points. moderate destiny viewers yeah moderate destiny viewers moderates are uh are 11 points underwater um mcmuro interestingly who kicked this off her people approve of it by a plus three margin um you guys will like this and well um we asked people where they get their news uh and actually people are still pretty heavily getting their news who are primary voters like from like CNN and MS Now.

1:38:15But look at breaking points, Sateo Dropsite. We said we asked him about independent news outlets like Sateo Dropsite News and breaking points for people under 45. Where is that one? 24%. 24%. So a quarter of, that's pretty good. That's pretty good. It's creeping up. So 13 % overall of Democratic primary voters answered yes to independent news. And a third of El-Sayed voters. Yeah, which makes sense. And 3 % of Stevens voters are watching this show. Hi, what's up? Hi, ladies. Sitting there seething. But now if you add in YouTube, YouTube is 27%, interestingly tied with Facebook. And podcasts, 22%, Instagram, 19%.

1:39:04Blue Sky, not doing so great down here at seven. And did you find that did you find al-Sayed voters tended to be the youngest of the you know, the three candidates? Let's see. That would also correlate with, you know, more independent media watchers. Yeah, let's see. OK, Abdul al-Sayed. So favorable or unfavorable. So under 45 plus 41. So certainly his highest favorability rating is among those. Stevens is just plus four with people under 45. Let's see how McMorrow's doing. McMorrow's plus two with people under 45. Oh, here's Hassan Piker. Here's Hassan Piker. Haven't heard enough to say. Okay, yeah, here's the number.

1:39:54So for people under 45, 58 % don't really have an opinion on Piker. uh so 42 percent do which is the highest number overall 80 percent uh of primary voters are just like i don't know like so with all this focus on this most people are basically like i don't even know who you're talking about right right yes um even google searches 54 percent of el-sayed voters are like what are you talking about i don't know so i think we can pull out of this ryan but one final question that i had i noticed um on the far right with the initial undecideds on most of these questions. It seems like it's like very aggressively splitting in the I don't want to vote for somebody who takes Israel lobby money.

1:40:37You know, with the election being as close as it is, where do you think it's going to go into the future? Do you think that'll have a major impact or it's side thing? Before I point last thing. So, yeah, it's 22-22. So, Stevens 23, McMorrow 22, El-Sayed 22 is what our polling is showing. But this is really interesting and um don't tell schumer this but this is why schumer is now signaling that he wants stevens to drop out that's how i'm perceiving the signals coming out of dc uh who's your second choice mcmorrow is the second choice of 38 of people whereas el side is only the second choice 13 and stevens is 22 um and so a head-to-head against el side and mcmorrow mcmorrow was up eight points over El-Sayed.

1:41:26And so you started to see Schumer, and Schumer's so unpopular that he can't even say this publicly, but there's been reporting that Schumer is okay with McMorrow now. McMorrow. Recognizing that Stephen, the only way El-Sayed can win is if Stephen stays in. That seems to be Schumer's view. That's probably why McMorrow has decided to take this stance on Hassan Piker, et cetera, et cetera, to make herself palatable to the Chuck Schumers of the world. So, you know, sort of playing. She sees her path. She she has to knock Stevens out. Yeah.

1:42:00Saagar Enjeti:Well, let's let's see a clip from this infamous Abdul El-Sayed and Hassan Piker town hall meetup where one free press enterprising journalist known as Olivia Rheingold asked Abdul a question. Let's take a listen. We're going to take two more questions. I'm sorry. We're going to have to move on to the next person. Israel, how are you doing to exist as a Jewish state? Olivia, we're going to have to move on. So I'd love to take the question. I'd love to take the question. Actually, what do you mean by a Jewish state? I feel like it's just so hard. If you can't define their question, I'm not going to answer your question.

1:42:34We're going to move on to the next question.

1:42:36Saagar Enjeti:All right. So that was the video that went around the world. And then Olivia. It's like the most boring video ever. Yes. But then Olivia went on to do a write-up of her experience there. She says, Abdul El-Sayed, who is Muslim, walks a fine line on the Jewish state. On Tuesday night, he told the crowd, as he does often, that his problem is not with Jews. So then later that night, in a makeshift spin room assembled by the campaign, he rebuffed my question on whether he believes in Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state. What do you mean by a Jewish state? He retorted, narrowing his eyes. If you can't answer that question, I'm not going to answer it.

1:43:22Saagar Enjeti:For someone who often waves around his respect for Judaism, he seemed unaware of something elementary. Judaism is not only a religion, but a people with a longstanding connection to Israel that runs through its prayers, traditions and histories, which some people said was not the quote. Well, OK, so we just watch it. Well, it's not the quote. That's not what he said. I do think they ultimately under pressure corrected it to at least say the correct quote. But there were many zoom ins of Abdul's eyes at that moment where he narrowed them. I think he may have blinked, but I don't we don't typically call that narrowing of the eyes.

1:44:01But anyway, narrowing of the eyes stayed in. And I mean, can you imagine if someone wrote an article about Olivia, Olivia Reingold, or we started this segment. Olivia Reingold, who is a Jew, blah, blah, blah. I don't think she's a Jew.

1:44:17Saagar Enjeti:No, she's an October 8th Jew. She's an October 8th, yes. But did she actually convert, or like, what's going on? She's working on it. There's a lot of paperwork. You get my point. Let's know when the paperwork's in. So we can properly characterize your religions, and that's apparently an important part of understanding the context here. She's written about her lament that her dad was Jewish and her mom isn't, so she's not Jewish. Like that's her. Well, some reform congregations would say she is whatever. Anyway, in the process. Yes. I believe she sees herself as Jewish and I would like to honor that.

1:44:49But can you imagine the freak out if we started the segment by saying, you know, Olivia Reingold, a Jew, did X or Y or Z. It's very obviously racist. It's also weird. Imagine if someone talked about me and was like Crystal Ball, who is agnostic, says, et cetera, et cetera. Like, why do we do that? Why do we need to know that?

1:45:07Saagar Enjeti:A woman. I mean, it's very obvious what she's doing here. She wants to make him sound sinister. She wants to make him sound anti-Semitic, even though he did nothing wrong. And in fact, that question that he asked her, that's a great question. What do you mean by a Jewish state? And she fumbles around before. OK, well, if you can't define it, then I'm not going to answer the question. It's giving very much Tucker when he was interviewed by, I think, the lady at The Economist. And she said, do you, you know, do you believe Israel has a right to exist? And he said, well, what do you mean by that?

1:45:38And she couldn't answer the question of what she meant by that. And the problem for someone like Olivia answering that question is that if you answer it honestly, what you're laying out is an ethnosupremacist apartheid state. And it clashes very obviously with liberal values. This is why Zoran's answer of I support Israel as a state with equal rights is so brilliant and devastating because it shows like how can you object to that? If you object to that, you're rejecting like the most obvious basic principles of liberalism. So that's why it was such an intelligent question on his part to say, OK, well, clarify, what do you mean by a Jewish state?

1:46:18Because if you just mean a state where, you know, Jewish people have the same rights as Muslim people or anyone else, then sure, fine. But the problem is that's not what she means. And she has never explained what she actually means by that. It's like if we were doing a segment on driving and identified Crystal as a woman. Crystal Ball, a woman. No, but really, like, it's just like nobody. Yes. Yes. But no, I agree. I think that her response in the piece to what appears to be not even the accurate quote is so patronizing. and it's patronizing to the point where it's out of touch with the reality that again if you engaged in good faith with abdul sayed you would obviously not think that about him because he's she even says in the piece he like what did she say hand waves about how he understands judaism and respects Judaism.

1:47:22Obviously, he understands all of that. So either you're not understanding his position or you're taking a cheap shot. Yeah. And Olivia also seems to be sort of like a Hassan Piker stalker, which is weird. And I think like in a broader sense, like they're making and this goes for like Dana Bash on CNN and Jake Tapper and all these other people who have been doing relentless segments on Hassan recently. It's like, as Griffin pointed out, the Google searches for Hassan Piker are skyrocketing. He's probably gaining more subs now than he has in a long time. Like they're making him to be a kingmaker when he really just like wasn't before, like maybe some influence with, you know, some degree of young people around the fringes.

1:48:04But I think at the end of the day, for a huge bulk of the Democratic Party that is critical of Israel, that is, you know, against the Israel lobby and whatever else, it's like you're kind of just showing them, oh, hey, look, here's a political commentator over here. Here's a candidate who agrees with you on these questions. So they're just going to end up like it's going to backfire and they're just going to end up pushing more and more people, you know, towards these spaces they want them to avoid.

1:48:30Saagar Enjeti:Yeah. And Olivia, like if she is desperate to find people running for office that are anti-Semitic, there's plenty of options for her to find those people. One that I actually just searched her Twitter for James Fishback running in Florida. I did a quick search on Olivia's Twitter to see what she said about James Fishback. And I was only able to find a few positive replies to James Fishback, including this one where she says December 31st, 2024. Aw, thank you for sharing. You're the incredible one. That's back before James Fishback had his transformation, which happened in like the last six months out of absolutely nowhere.

1:49:16He was a free press contributor. He was praising Barry.

1:49:20Saagar Enjeti:Yeah. Yes. Before he realized he was being fed goyslop. That's right. Prior to that, him realizing that. Yes. So anyways, I'd love an update or like a follow up on the Fishback campaign if we're rooting out anti-Semitism in the candidates running. I promise you that is almost certainly coming. All right. Well, we got a big final segment that we have to get to that crossed all of our desks late afternoon yesterday. And of course, I'm speaking about Melania Trump, who came out to speak about Epstein. Why don't we take a listen? The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Jeffrey Epstein need to end today.

1:50:08The individuals lying about me are devoid of ethical standards, humility and respect. I do not object to their ignorance, but rather, I reject their mean-spirited attempts to defame my reputation. I've never been friends with Epstein. Donald and I were invited to the same parties as Epstein from time to time, since overlapping in social circles is common in New York City and Palm Beach. To be clear, I never had a relationship with Epstein or his accomplice, Maxwell. My email reply to Maxwell cannot be categorized as anything more than casual correspondence. My polite reply to her email doesn't amount to anything more than a tribal note.

1:51:21I am not Epstein's victim. Epstein did not introduce me to Donald Trump. I met my husband by chance at the New York City party in 1998. That's the best part. This initial encounter with my husband is documented in a detail in my book, Melania. By the book, people. For which we all have signed copies of. Also referring to your husband as Donald Trump. Crystal's like, you can read about my initial meeting with my husband, Kyle Kalinsky, in my book. Crystal. Crystal. Yes. I mean, it's really it's literally the meme where it's like no one, absolutely no one. And then Melania, I was not friends with Jeffrey Epstein.

1:52:11I barely knew the guy. It's like, what is going on? Can I say my theory? Yeah, tell me. OK, because they're they're competing theories and I'm not like 100 percent sure of this. But Trump told MSNOW that he did not know this was going to happen. So a debate whether or not that's true. So my theory is that Melania Trump spent January and February seething over the allegations that she because she is in emails with Ghislaine Maxwell. She has this what she characterized as a reply appears to actually have been an email to Ghislaine Maxwell, which I have pulled up here, where she says something like looking forward to.

1:52:53Yeah, here's the email. She says something to the extent of like G addresses her as G. It's almost certainly Ghislaine Maxwell. It's a someone based in New York named Ghislaine says nice story about J.E. and NY Mag. You look great on the picture. I know you are very busy flying all over the world. How is Palm Beach? I cannot wait to go down. Give me a call when you are back in NY. Have a great time. Love Melania. And then Maxwell replies, sweet pea. Thanks for your message. Actually, plans changed again. And now I'm on my way back to NY. I leave again on Friday, so I still do not think I have time to see you.

1:53:31Sadly, I will try and call, though. The implication here is that they had a close enough relationship where Maxwell's referring to her sweet pea. She's referring to Ghislaine as G. The dates do match that New York mag story on Jeffrey Epstein, and they have a relationship where they call each other. So that's what was revealed. I think Melania spent January and February being upset because her reputation is getting dragged through the mud, but reasonably so given these emails back and forth with Maxwell. And then her husband launched a war before she could launch a response to Epstein. She was told there's no way that you can address this when we're at war.

1:54:13But as soon as there's a ceasefire, you can. Literally like the next day, she comes out out of nowhere and gets it done as quickly as possible in case the ceasefire falls apart. This is my theory. It's just so weird because no one was thinking about her. The Epstein coverage was successfully buried by the war. And then you just come out. I'll show you what the sort of dominant Internet theory is right now. So this requires a little bit of backstory, of course. Obviously, Melania is from Eastern Europe. She was brought to the U.S. She came as a model. And so and this very close Trump friend who's a former modeling agent named Paolo Zampoli is the guy who helped her secure her visa to be able to come and stay in the U.S.

1:54:57Well, this guy is actually now in the administration, and he asked ICE to arrest his former Brazilian girlfriend, who also was, you know, a model and potentially also underage, potentially, when she was first in this whole network. But anyway, she's the father of their teenage son, and he asked ICE to arrest her. Well, she is now apparently she's out on Twitter like, I will destroy. I know everything about Donald and Melania. I'm going to spill. I'm going to ruin everything. I have nothing left to lose. And it just came out that she apparently recorded an interview with a Spanish language channel that is set to air this weekend.

1:55:39So maybe that's what is going on here because she certainly has been going out there and saying that she has the goods, that she's going to spill the tea, etc. Because, of course, what people think when they see this thing from Melania is like, what is she trying to get ahead of here? Because none of us were thinking about you or talking about you in this way at all, girl. So what is up with this? And, you know, I mean, that's the most obvious explanation is that there's some story or some development that's about to happen that she wanted to get out there in front of.

1:56:12I guess everyone agrees.

1:56:40speaking so i don't know i mean it does just remind i guess too of what i mean the trump administration is just a mess trump is truly it's disaster on all fronts because even okay let's say that he agrees to the iranian surrender conditions i mean that is a devastating but he's gonna have a very hard time selling that as victory to anyone including his own base let alone the world so you've got that mess and then it frees everybody up you know ryan and co to get back on the the Epstein files reporting, which was already an utter disaster for him. And we just had numbers that came out this morning, a very hot inflation reading.

1:57:16So prices going back up. Of course, gas prices are extremely high. The economy is very shaky, shaky. The AI bubble seems on the verge of collapse and, you know, midterm elections around the corner that are likely to deal a devastating blow. So a little reminder of just how bad the whole landscape is for this administration at this point. It's a golden age. That's what it really feels like.

1:57:40Saagar Enjeti:Do we want to play that video you sent me, Crystal? It's a little long. I'm not really sure. That's OK. I think it was it was that guy, Paolo, the modeling agent saying that, you know, talking about that relationship and saying that he was the one who introduced Melania to Trump because, you know, I mean, that's not what I read in Melania. Well, and here's the other thing is that's right. Exactly. And then the the other thing is there's allegations that have been made by Michael Wolff that Melania has threatened to sue him over, including that Epstein had had a relationship with Melania prior to Trump and that Trump and Melania.

1:58:22This, again, is his allegations and yes, over it. So I am not saying that this is what happened. But he claims that they had sex for the first time on his plane and that there was obviously like deep entanglement there. And this whole modeling world is so incredibly disgusting and was rampantly used for human trafficking. And that's that's well documented. And so the you know, the Trump and Epstein and John Casablanca is in this Palo guy, like all in that cesspool of a world is, you know, is obviously very noteworthy as well.

1:58:57Saagar Enjeti:Yep. Well, on that note, it's been a jam packed show, but I will not not do some AMA questions here at the end. Let's hit a few right off the bat. Rapid fire here to take us out on this Friday. This one is to Emily from Nelson. Oh, sorry. This is for Emily from Sabas 101. For Emily, with the rise of Catholicism in younger generations and the growing dissatisfaction with the Iran War, will Zionist evangelicals denominations decline in membership and power in politics? I mean, I think actually it's sort of the inverse in that what would be called dispensationalism, so this idea that biblical Israel and the modern nation state of Israel are interchangeable, that you have to read that into prophecies and scripture.

1:59:51I think that's actually just declining among evangelical voters who previously had been attached to that and a very particular political Zionism because of it. I think, you know, it's just like younger people, Gen Z evangelicals have, I think, really moved away from it. So it's not so much that the denominations are declining. Catholicism is actually continuing to decline. They're more younger Catholics. Like there's obviously something going on, but it's declining in the United States. So actually, I think what's really happening is it's not so much the denomination or it's not so much that the evangelical churches are losing members or anything like that, so much as it is the members are less likely to be dispensationalists the younger they are.

2:00:41Gotcha.

2:00:42Saagar Enjeti:All right. This next one is for Crystal from Jacob RP 273. Crystal, do you think if Israel does deploy a nuclear bomb that Trump will have the guts to do anything about it? Do you think his need to protect himself from getting exposed will outweigh the ethical obligation to permanently restrain Israel? I don't see any evidence of Trump reigning in Israel at this point. So not very not very hopeful in that regard. I mean, but look, his his options, you know, whether a nuclear weapon is deployed or not, are all impossible for him. So, you know, it's hard to see him standing up to Israel. It's also hard for to see him staying in a war that's destroying the entire economy and entire global economy.

2:01:23It's hard to see him accepting the Iranian surrender demands. It's just all of these things are going to be very painful for him. So, you know, your guess is as good as mine. Which of the extremely painful for Donald Trump options he's going to choose at this point?

2:01:38Saagar Enjeti:All right. This next one is for Ryan. More of a statement, but you can still react to it. From from Nick Strickland. You guys should start a new segment called Ryan's Message to the White House, where Ryan directly addresses Trump plus his admin and maybe offers advice. We will all pretend like it doesn't have an effect. Stut. My service is her. It's already working. I'm here to serve the country. Yeah. Very nice. Very nice. And I'll throw this one to Mac, the final one today. This is from Hamster Wheel. AMA question. Are you aware, either through your own analysis or via told top-down, when a news story seems to be a limited hangout?

2:02:23Saagar Enjeti:Could the fine BP crew speak to the concept of limited hangout? Do all breaking stories go through this process, or is it just Epstein? Usually when I see the byline, Natasha Bertrand. Emily, you have takes on this. Mac, do you have any? Yeah, go for it, Emily. No, no, no. I just often the byline and the sourcing. But that's probably what you were going to say, Mac. Yeah. Mm-hmm. I'm just going to ask Mac's question. I mean, we got to tell people what the concept is if they don't know. Everyone's at a different stage of their life's journey. Limited hangout means you have an enormous amount of stuff that you're hiding, and you put a tiny piece out of it to try to kind of settle the issue and get people to move on.

2:03:11So, like, the Epstein file release is kind of the definition of a limited hangout. Right. And we know that it is because there's some millions more, we don't even know how much, files that are being hidden. But they're like, here, public. Here's a little drip, drip. We released the files. Are we done doing it? Stop talking about it. That is like definitionally limited hangout. But that's, you know, a common technique that's used, like information, you know, operation kind of. And a feature of it is to put people in the wrong direction. Like you put a little bit of it out. That seems to implicate somebody over here when actually the real thing is over here.

2:03:47So you get some of the information, but you get everybody chasing the wrong laser. Yeah. Or it's like, you know, you take a little bit of damage, but to avoid the more, you know, significant damage. Because you ask if something's going on. Yeah. Right. You're under too much pressure. And that gives credibility to the idea people have gotten the truth when really the thing that would be more devastating is still being hidden. Right. Trump's attempt to be like, yeah, this was actually all just Bill Clinton and Democrats is a good example. Like, all right, fine. You got me. I'll give you the information on Epstein.

2:04:17It was the Democrats. That's okay. Didn't want to share that, but you forced it out of me.

2:04:24Saagar Enjeti:Gotcha. All right, Mac, maybe this will be one that you have something more to say about. Patrick Mulligan says, hello, everyone. It is good to be able to criticize friends and allies. In that spirit, what is your most serious criticism of Hassan? Do you have any Hassan Piker criticisms? I mean, yeah, I don't think we're perfectly in line on everything. Uh, I don't know. I mean, nothing crazy. I feel like he can have some cringe take sometimes. I feel like he gets involved in some of the drama stuff and some of the sort of like slop stuff a lot more than I would personally. But, you know, maybe that's more his wheelhouse.

2:05:05Like he has a lot of people who find him through those kinds of avenues and he does a lot of content outside of just like strict news coverage or political commentary or whatever. But, you know.

2:05:15Saagar Enjeti:Yeah, when you stream for eight hours a day, you're probably going to say some things you regret. Yeah. And delve into some drama. And yeah, you got a lot of time in that eight hours to explore all facets of our universe. We get in enough trouble in two hours, so I can't imagine eight. That's going to do it for us this Friday. Thank you, everyone. Welcome to the new ring of the Freedom. Freedom Rings. Freedom Free Friday show. Comrade Ryan. Welcome to all the Haley Stevens voters who absolutely hated watching this but did it anyway. We tip our hat to you. And, of course, if anything major breaking happens over the weekend, we will be, unlike Abdul Sayed, keeping our eyes wide open for anything that occurs over the weekend.

2:06:02And if not, we'll see you on Monday.

2:06:06Saagar Enjeti:Goodbye, everybody. How much do you weigh, Wanda? Right now, about 130. I'm like 183. We should race. No, I want to leave here with my original hips. On the podcast, The Matchup with Aaliyah, I pair prominent female athletes with unexpected guests. On a recent episode, I sat down with undisputed boxing champ, Clarissa Shields and comedian Wanda Sykes to talk about Wanda's new movie, Undercard, the art of trash talk and what it really means to be ladylike. Open your free iHeartRadio app, search The Matchup with Aaliyah and listen now. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network.

2:06:39When a group of women discover they've all dated the same prolific con artist. They take matters into their own hands. I vowed I will be his last target. He is not going to get away with this. He's going to get what he deserves. We always say that, trust your girlfriends. Listen to the girlfriends, trust me, babe. Starting April 13th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

2:07:12On paper, the three hosts of the Nick Dick and Paul Show are geniuses. We can explain how AI works, data centers, but there are certain things that we don't necessarily understand.

2:07:25Saagar Enjeti:Better version of play stupid games, win stupid prizes. Yes. Which, by the way, wasn't Taylor Swift who said that for the first time. I actually, I thought it was. I got that wrong. But hey, no one's perfect. We're pretty close, though. Listen to the Nick Dick and Paul Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.