4/21/26: US Seizes Iranian Ship, Energy Crisis Spirals, Trump Says No Ceasefire Extension

20:21Jeremy Scahill:So what is your latest sense of whether the Iranian delegation is going to show up in Islamabad or not? Well, you know, the entire vibe right now in Tehran has been that Iran believes that it has greater leverage now than it's had at any point. They were really reluctant to engage in this two-week pause because they were concerned that the U.S. and Israel would use it to try to rearm or reposition themselves to launch another attack. And the Iranians, I'm told, were more than willing to go forward and do another round of negotiations as long as it was led by J.D. Vance and not Witkoff and Kushner.

20:57And they, to their mind, had a breakthrough last Friday when Abbas Arachi, the Iranian foreign minister, posted that the Strait of Hormuz was going to be reopened. And there was, I'm told, a sort of backdoor understanding that Arachi would post that and then Trump would say what he wanted about the good news. And that is what happened initially. Trump said, thank you. In fact, he referred to it as the Strait of Iran rather than the Strait of Hormuz. But then whether he got called by the Israelis or other people started influencing him or he was watching on social media, Trump then moments later says, wait a minute, no, we're keeping our blockade in force.

21:37And so what that kicked into motion was a series of events where the Iranians said, wait a minute, we're not going to move forward with another round of negotiations as long as Trump is engaged in this erratic, threatening messaging and that they have this blockade enforced. And then you had an incident where the U.S. Navy actually shot at an Iranian ship and seized it and took custody of it. And what I'm told is that in the discussions that took place that were mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad, that Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and other Iranian officials, made clear to Vice President J.D.

22:13Vance that in order for another round to occur, there couldn't be this kind of threatening rhetoric from the United States. So it wasn't just the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. It was, in fact, Trump's rhetoric. And the Iranians weren't just saying, we don't like this. They were saying, we had a diplomatic understanding that this is not how things were going to go down. So that's what caused this situation where there were reports that J.D. Vance had his bags packed and was on the plane or his plane was imminently going to land. And once again, Trump's erratic behavior combined with the belligerence seems to have caused a problem moving forward.

22:46But the sense I get from the Iranians is that they are interested in reaching a deal. they are interested in talking, but they don't believe that they're walking into this as the weaker party on a tactical level. They think Trump is in trouble. Yeah, Jeremy, it's very, very difficult to decipher. And let's be clear, we're recording this in the morning, about an hour before you came on, the United States took another Iranian ship. And so that's what happened about an hour ago. At the same time, all weekend, Trump is touting some sort of JCPOA 2.0. Let's put A3 up here on the screen. Trump says, the deal we are making with Iran will be far better than the JCPOA, commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal.

23:26It was a guaranteed road to a nuclear weapon, et cetera. If I did not terminate that deal, he goes on to trash. But he says, it will be something the entire world will be proud of instead of the years of embarrassment and humiliation that we've been forced to suffer due to incompetent and cowardly leadership. So at the very same time, Jeremy, he's belligerent. He's seizing ships. He's threatening attacks. this morning. He said Iran has violated a ceasefire numerous times. Just yesterday, he is saying maybe we'll do JCPOA 2.0. We'll do some sort of Iran nuclear deal. How do the Iranians interpret these mixed signals?

23:58Yeah, I mean, this is whiplash diplomacy. And in fact, Donald Trump, according to the Wall Street Journal profile about him recently, seems to think that by intentionally acting this way and making derogatory references about Islam, et cetera, that somehow that's a language that the Iranians are going to respect or it's going to move the needle. And I think actually the opposite is true. I see no evidence whatsoever that this is having the impact that Trump thinks it is. In fact, as we've talked about repeatedly on this show, it's been the US that has been over and over asking for discussions or talks with Iran.

24:34On the issue of this JCPOA thing, I think it's important to say something that I don't often see mentioned, and that is that the entire rationale for this war, the idea that he's going to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, the entire thing was based on an epic lie. And the terms that are on the table right now are in no meaningful way any different from what Iranian negotiators had put on the table in Geneva as of February 27th, the day before the United States launched this war. I've been told by multiple Iranian officials and insiders that Iran is not going to agree to hand over to the United States its enriched uranium, that they are discussing a supervised dilution of it, a much more robust presence of international inspectors inside of Iran.

25:22Trump certainly could say that he's gotten some terms that extend beyond what the JCPOA provided for. I think that's true. But that was also true back in February. And the Iranians that I'm speaking to, officials, that is, are speaking in a very derisive manner about Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. On the one hand, they're saying they had no technical know-how. They didn't understand the significance of what we were putting on the table. And on the other hand, Iranians told me that they have intelligence that Witkoff and Kushner, particularly Kushner, that they were getting information from the Israelis during the negotiations.

25:58In other words, they're saying that they have intelligence that indicates that Netanyahu was deeply involved and sticking himself in the middle of this negotiation or discussion process. So it's a combination of technical ignorance and a total lack of understanding of the issues that professional negotiators would be understanding. And then the fact that the Iranians are saying, we know that at various turns, it seemed like we were making progress. And then Witkoff or Kushner start talking to Netanyahu and then things go south.

26:30Jeremy Scahill:How much unity is there on the Iranian side, though? Because it seems that there's been a bit of a divide in desired approach between the Arachis and Golibofs of the world and the IRGC command. You know, is that also a challenge for them if we get back to the negotiating table here in terms of having the authority to strike some sort of deal? You know, I think, and I'm basing this on talking to well-informed Iranian sources, I think there's been a very robust debate inside of the echelons of power within Iran. I don't think that that is fictional at all. You definitely have people that are very concerned, if not angered, that this two-week temporary ceasefire was brokered.

27:15There were people pushing for Iran to keep fighting on, believing that they had the United States and Israel backed into a corner with Israel's supply of interceptors dwindling, with Trump in chaos, with the global economy in shambles, with the Gulf Arab countries just absolutely livid that this war was extending on, with the prospect of if Trump and Netanyahu kept bombing, that you were going to have a great escalation of attacks against infrastructure in the GCC countries. that you could have started to see more American soldiers being killed. So clearly there were Iranians that were saying we should absolutely not have any kind of a pause.

27:53But I would also say that there's a political propaganda aspect to this psychological warfare where you have these narratives largely promoted by anonymous U.S. officials and Israelis that there's sort of this massive split happening that the IRGC is, you know, is angry with Arachi, the foreign minister, and Galibov is doing this. I think what we've really seen in a clear way is that Iran is a nation of institutions. Galibaf, one inside analyst told me this morning, Galibaf would not be leading this delegation or making these proclamations if he was not empowered by the Supreme National Security Council and it was signed off on by Moshtaba Khamenei and his office.

28:34So I think that that's true. I think there's a lot of exaggeration to that. There certainly are debates within Iranian society. One of the things that I think is important to point out is, and I spoke this morning to a very famous Iranian analyst, Hassan Ahmadiyya, and he said to me, can you name another instance that you can think of, of a country whose political, religious, military senior leadership was assassinated, and then it turned around and was able to fight a world superpower to a total standstill where the president of the United States is the one who seems to be dead. desperate for an off-ramp.

29:11He was saying that in response to this question of, isn't Iran in a sort of crumbling state? Isn't it backed up against the wall? And he's saying, point out to me another example of something like this going down. It's really fascinating because like you said, from the Trump side, let's put A5 here on the screen. All weekend, and this also seems to be very intentional, is Trump wants a deal. He's also saying, I'm winning a war by a lot. He says that Iran is losing$500 million a day, that the blockade will not be taken off until there is a deal. It is, quote, absolutely destroying Iran. And so he simultaneously wants a deal.

29:45He's threatening action. There's also real action that's taking place on the high seas. Jeremy, you just discussed very eloquently, you know, the problems on potential problems on the Iranian side about factions. But it seems to be the same case here in the U.S. You know, from Saeed Mirandi, who we spoke to here on the show, he was part of the Iranian delegation. There were major weird communication things happening on the U.S. side. Jeremy, Islamabad officials are leaking this morning. They do expect some talks to happen. But my question is about how much we should read even into talks. Like if talks do occur, how positive of a signal is that for some sort of extension of a ceasefire?

30:25And would Iran even want an extension of a ceasefire? I mean, think first of the incredible risks to Donald Trump. If the United States does decide to resume this war, the Iranians are saying that they've spent the last two weeks replenishing their technology and their launch capacity. And some of that may be exaggeration, but I'm certain that it's true. I mean, there's already satellite evidence to indicate that they've cleared out some of the mountain bases where they have launchers and other equipment, these so-called missile cities. So there is tremendous risk. And the fact is that U.S. military infrastructure has been damaged to a tremendous degree in the Persian Gulf.

31:04Israel would certainly be hit very hard. It may well happen. Trump may decide to move forward and try to resume strikes thinking that it will be in some form of a limited capacity. But what I was told by a senior Iranian official is that if Donald Trump does decide to do this, that Iran is going to cut off indefinitely all diplomatic channels, meaning they are not going to just allow a few more days or another week of bombing and then come back to the table. Also, Iranian officials told me that they've been engaged in parallel discussions with their own strategic partners, including nuclear powers.

31:36By that, I take it to mean China primarily, but also likely Russia, about what it looks like to establish a different form of deterrence or restore what they perceive as regional balance. And so, you know, Iran is not just putting all of its eggs in the basket of making a deal with the United States. It believes that China and Russia are not going to want this to go on. And so part of what we're seeing is that the Iranians are telling the Chinese in particular, yes, in good faith, we're going to try to make a deal with the United States. But if Trump, who's an erratic, unpredictable, whimsical character, decides to move forward and Israel wins the day and they try to go for completely smashing the Iranian state, then we have no alternative but to say to China and Russia, hey, what are you going to do about this now?

32:19And I think that's going to become a real story in the coming weeks. Interesting.

32:23Jeremy Scahill:Jeremy, True to Parsi has been saying he thinks the most likely outcome is that, you know, whether the talks happen or not, it's unlikely that because the two sides are so far apart, it's unlikely that an actual deal will be struck. But Trump may just walk away, leaving a sort of, you know, limbo state where there's no sanctions relief. Iran still has control of Strait of Hormuz. Israel's left to its own devices to do whatever, you know, know, things they're going to do. Do you think that's an acceptable state for Iran? Do you think that that is a sort of stable status quo, new status quo that could be reached out of all of this?

33:00I asked that exact question last night to a senior Iranian official because Joe Kent, who just left as the director of the National Counterterrorism Center a few days ago, actually posted that very concept on Twitter, on X, saying that, you know, there's a third option, which is Trump could just sort of decide to end the war and walk away from it. I think there's a case to be made that Iran benefits on a strategic level by being attacked by the United States or by having the looming threat of war. And because it can respond in an asymmetric way. And Iran has been able to win by preventing the United States and Israel from achieving their objectives.

33:39And there is an argument that I think is a compelling one from a purely American point of view, which is that if Trump were to say, listen, the Strait of Hormuz has to be dealt with by Europe, China, all these other countries that are the primary forces using it. We've already massively degraded Iran. OK, they don't want to make a deal. Let's ratchet up the sanctions. Let's try to continue with our covert and overt support for attempts at armed insurrection inside of Iran. Let's let their economy continue to crumble. Let's let them weaken it. We'll pull back because actually mission is already accomplished.

34:12So watch what's going to happen to them. There's a case to be made that, you know, from an American perspective, that would be the wisest move where Trump just sort of walks away. What the Iranian official, though, said to me, he pushed back and said, you know, the people that are promoting this, yes, it does seem like it would be strategically wise of Trump to a degree, but they're underestimating the strength of Iranian institutions. And they also are failing to look at other parts of history where we've been in much more dire economic straits. So what they're saying is that they're leaning into their alternative alliances, that they believe that much of the world now sees the U.S.

34:45and Israel for what they are, and that the dynamics have shifted to such a degree that Iran believes that it could endure that scenario. And in fact, a senior official told me he thinks it's most likely that you're not going to have a comprehensive, detailed technical agreement, certainly not with the Trump administration. And the most likely scenario is a kind of vague backing away from this, perhaps in the context of a very limited sort of deal. Last question before we go. Why would they allow that? Because they think they can weather the storm with Chinese loans or Russian loans or I mean. The Iranians, you mean.

35:18Yeah, the Iranians. Why would they want that? Why would they not restart the war? No, I don't think that they, I don't believe at all that that's what they want. I think that they very much want to have sanctions relief. I think that they very much want to have their tens of billions of dollars unfrozen. I think they believe that they're being reasonable on what they're offering on enriched uranium and the kind of oversight mechanisms that they would be willing to allow inside of Iran that may well extend beyond what Obama was able to get in 2015. I don't think they want that at all. I think more what the senior official was saying to me is we're realistic about who we're dealing with here.

35:56And if people think that, you know, Trump walking away in that manner is going to mean that we crumble, fall apart and the Islamic Republic ceases to exist, that they're underestimating us just as the world has underestimated us since February 28th. That's what it is. No, I think Iran wants to make a deal. I think they feel like they have the leverage to do it. the wild card is that they are dealing with a corrupt gangster, insider trading businessman masquerading as a head of state who is using the White House as sort of his personal business platform to enrich his cronies and family members.

36:27Jeremy Scahill:So Jeremy, last question for you. If you had to say, you had to put your money on one side or the other, do you think the Iranian delegation shows up in Islamabad this week? I think there is going to be another round of talks. I think the question is going to be how senior of a delegation the Iranians will send. I say that with the caveat that we could be watching this on record while we're also watching bombs hitting Tehran and other places, because that's been the pattern for the past two years. But I think there's a high likelihood that very soon there is gonna be another round of talks. Yeah, well, we're gonna endeavor to get this segment posted as quickly as we possibly can, since things are changing literally by the minute.

37:04Jeremy Scahill:Jeremy Scahill, always great to have your analysis. Really, really valuable. Thank you so much. Thank you, Jeremy. Thank you, guys. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt, from renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work.

37:36It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash podcast. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool.

38:05Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Protect your pet with insurance from PetsBest. Plans start from less than a dollar a day. Visit PetsBest.com. Pet insurance products offered and administered by PetsBest Insurance Services, LLC, are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company or Independence American Insurance Company. For terms and conditions, visit www.PetsBest.com backslash policy. Products are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company, Independence American Insurance Company, or MS Transverse Insurance Company and administered by PetsBest Insurance Services, LLC.

38:35$1 a day premium based on 2024 average new policyholder data for accident and illness plans, pets age 0 to 10.

38:42Jeremy Scahill:Hi, I'm Cindy Crawford, and I'm the founder of Meaningful Beauty. Well, I don't know about you, but like, I never liked being told, oh, wow, you look so good for your age. Like, why even bother saying that? Why don't you just say you look great at any age, every age? That's what Meaningful Beauty is all about. We create products that make you feel confident in your skin at the age you are now. Meaningful Beauty. Beautiful skin at every age. Learn more at MeaningfulBeauty.com.

39:17Turning now to the economy and part of the reason that Donald Trump is desperate to wrap things up with Iran. Let's put this up here on the screen. I love this story. Trump says that the energy secretary is, quote, totally wrong on gas prices not dropping to$3 a gallon until next year. President Trump spoke to The Hill on Monday, and he disagreed with the Secretary of Energy Chris Wright's assessment that gas prices may not drop below$3 per gallon until next year. Quote, no, I think he's wrong on that. Totally wrong. When asked if he believes gas prices will drop, he said, quote, as soon as this ends.

39:53Wright had previously told CNN Sunday gas prices may not drop below$3 a gallon until next year amid shipping restrictions in the Straits of Hormuz. I don't know. That could happen later this year. That might not happen until next year. Quote, but prices have likely peaked and they will start to go down. The secretary added, certainly with the resolution of the conflict, you will see gas prices go down. Prices across the board on energy will continue to go down. So gas remains about$4.02 a gallon nationally, remains very high and stabilizing right around probably, I don't know,$3.90,$4 a gallon.

40:26But the point of the below$3 gallon is where we all were on February 27th. On February 27th, the day before the war launched, gas was$2.90 a gallon. So the$1 or so increase where there's likely to be some sort of stabilization translates into tens of billions of dollars every single month that an American must spend – that America must spend on gas than it was not previously. And I think that is the most direct consequence. Diesel actually still remains one of those where if you're not a trucker, if you don't work in the industry or any of that, you don't have a full familiarity of the general impact that's having.

41:02The margin for many of these independent contracting truckers is getting destroyed. Many businesses already raising prices. If you had a tow truck over the way, I was asking about it. And I was like, so what's going on with diesel? And he showed me the receipt. It's a 100-gallon tank, and it's only diesel for this tow truck. So$650. I was like, so wait, how long does this take? And he's like, well, man, this thing gets$5 to$8 a gallon. and so once a week, depending on the tow job, I was like, once a week at$650 per, I was like, oh my God, I was like, this is insanity. And he was like, yeah, man, and before the war, you know, it was half of that or something.

41:44Like, I was like, good Lord. So that is a direct consequence, I just gave you, of a business where, what do you think he's gonna do? He's gonna sit there and take it or are they gonna raise a price? You know, it's like, what do you think is gonna happen?

41:53Jeremy Scahill:It's a very inelastic sort of thing. You have to pay what they say you're gonna pay. They're holding your car hostage. You're so right. Yeah, when you're stuck on the side of the road, you will pay whatever you have to pay to get towed. That is exactly the problem, though. It's a general tax on the entire country. So when we start to think about all of these things, it's very obvious with the economic impact. The also thing that the energy secretary is trying to be honest about is what are we, six weeks, seven weeks, something like that since hostilities started. That's six, seven weeks of no oil through the Straits of Hormuz, or I don't know, what, 5 % of the oil that used to come through, that's just not going to cut it.

42:30The demand destruction has already begun. The natural gas problem in Asia remains catastrophic. There's still so many, like the shortages and all of those things, while there was some delay in the fear over that, it's still happening. It's not like there's been a general resumption of oil flow through the Straits of Hormones. Helium remains a huge problem. We're okay apparently here in the US, we're oversupplied, but the rest of the nation, big problem. Fertilizer is already sky high. We already know that. We're almost certainly will have higher food prices six months to come. And that's if everything ends today, even right now.

43:01So, you know, they're delusional whenever it comes to gas.

43:05Jeremy Scahill:Did you see the tweet Goliboff put out trolling where he was saying basically, I mean, his point was basically like you all are vibe trading like, you know, speculation on oil. But there's an underlying reality, which is exactly what Rory Johnson's been telling us the whole time around. And he included in there the Bloomberg terminal code for looking up the Brent crude prices. So some real, you know, some real inside baseball knowledge there in terms of the financial system. But, you know, there's also increasing signs that Trump, as much as he, you know, blusters publicly and pretends like nothing bothers him and that he totally knows what he's doing and he's unfazed by all of this, that not just Republicans, but Trump specifically knows he's got big problems here in terms of the economic landscape.

43:50Jeremy Scahill:We've put B2 up on the screen. This is, you know, they're drawing on reporting here from Politico. You had a Republican analyst who said we're going to get killed in the midterms if the gas prices do not come down. So you can understand why Trump is so sensitive that he goes out and directly says, no, my energy secretary is completely wrong on gas prices because he knows what a big problem this is. And that was the other thing that really came through from that Wall Street Journal piece that Emily and I talked about yesterday, Sagar, I know you read as well, where Trump was freaking out privately, specifically after that one fighter jet was brought down and two airmen were missing.

44:32Jeremy Scahill:He went on this multi-hour tirade that was so insane he had to be shut out of the room while his aides gathered and tried to figure out, OK, what's the plan? So the commander in chief was so unhinged, he had to be completely shut out of those conversations. And he also privately is asking people, you know, how they think this is going and worrying public like allowed about the comparison with Jimmy Carter and the way that the Iranian hostage crisis just completely nuked him. I mean, his presence is already not going well in terms of, you know, reality and the public perception, but that the Iranian hostage crisis was just the death of him from a political perspective.

45:13Jeremy Scahill:And Trump is apparently talking about that privately to his aides. So he knows this is a major problem. He should be because it is very 70s-esque. And a lot, look, you know, his very best, that's the book, biography of Jimmy Carter. I recommend everybody go read it because all anybody really knows about Carter is what happened with the Iranian— Malaysian Iran, yeah. It's a complicated, long story. Allow me to tell you a little bit of a thing called the Panama Canal Treaty, which everybody forgets now, and people literally lost their Senate seats over. But the point is that for a multi-year period, there was hit after hit after hit.

45:45We've kind of accelerated that for a one-year timeline. Trump was already dramatically unpopular before the war. This is kind of pushing things over the edge. But it is Carter-esque in terms of that's what will become the defining legacy. But there were a lot of things that fed into the lack of trust from the country over these issues and with the war to make it so that when that does happen, you are massively unpopular. And, you know, again, look, people have accused people of pointing these things out as like crisis mongering or fear mongering or any of that. I just think it's a responsibility to warn people like what I just talked about with the tow truck Ryan Diesel.

46:16That's that's happening. That is a thing. That's one month. How many months can somebody sit there and take it? Let's put the next one up here. Very interesting piece from Bloomberg. Accumulative global impact of the seven-week war is beginning to emerge in the coming week. They specifically point to all of these different indexes which track inflation specifically for manufacturing. And you can already see that in many of them, that the composite PMI, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, many of them are beginning to spike. And actually, we saw some of the very beginnings of some of this for stagflation that happened just in the last month data.

46:53But really, I think where you have to look is just at the OPEC number from last month, 27 % reduction. Put before next on the screen, please, because this just makes it very, very clear. The world is now in the biggest energy crisis in history, 600 million barrels of lost oil supply. The gas prices are up 47 % since December. Inflation is a 4 % and a similar path in the 1970s. There you go. I mean, it doesn't take a genius really to figure out where things are going to go from here. The same oil shock in the 1970s is really what propelled the U.S. economy into problems that lasted for, I'm forgetting when the recession ended in the 80s, maybe 82, 83.

47:31It took a long time, right, even with the resumption of Reagan after the whole hostage crisis and all of that was solved. And the reason why is because the amount of dried-up capital, the spreading effects of stagflation, interest rates, it really froze everybody. And it also scarred a generation forever. And I think our generation will be very similar to the 1970s generation who had to live through those very high periods of inflation. It's not one-to-one, obviously, in terms of the numbers, but we've lived through it now for many years. We've had high inflation since 2021. one. Simultaneously, though, somehow we've also had booming corporate profits and the rich getting phenomenally much richer.

48:11So it's much more of a generational conflict. It's very unique in its own way. But I think that the big economic story for me is just Asia. I don't think they will ever forgive us for what we have done to them.

48:21Jeremy Scahill:Well, and Asia is also kind of a preview of where the rest of the world is going to be headed if this crisis is not ended, this Trump-created crisis is not ended. They are hit hardest first. Then it's likely to spread and Africa too, by the way, then it's likely to spread to Europe. And then finally, you know, I mean, we're already seeing some impacts here, but in terms of the worst impacts, we do have some insulation, which is kind of, you know, kind of gross given that we're the ones that created the problem. But in any case, let's put this New York Times article up on the screen. This is B5 talking about how screwed Asia already is.

48:57Jeremy Scahill:They say the forces of scarcity hitting Asia may soon spread across the world. the Asia Pacific was hit hard and quick by the war in Iran in its energy bottlenecks. Scenes of crisis there indicate the problems are multiplying and spreading. You have one senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center who's based in Sri Lanka who said the impacts are so rapid and deep. Just from a magnitude perspective, this is really very, very, very large. They go in and document some of the specific problems, starting with, you know, There's been already 92 ,000 flights canceled worldwide. That is double the pre-war rate of cancellation.

49:38Jeremy Scahill:The largest spike in eliminated flights is linked to Asia Pacific. And that is because of this issue of scarcity of jet fuel. We even have actually Air Canada had to cancel flights into New York City from I think was Toronto to New York City because of this jet fuel shortage. So we are already seeing some of those effects here. not to mention airline prices. If you go and try to buy a ticket now, it's likely to be much more expensive than if you had bought it before the war. I'm seeing things on Twitter about people who are struggling to be able to afford to go to a funeral or a wedding or things that they had hoped to be able to attend.

50:15Jeremy Scahill:And that is amplified and magnified in Asia. You've also had halted production. They say many of Asia's most successful export industries require enormous amounts of energy and other ingredients from the Middle East. Seven weeks in, stockpiles are running out. Cutbacks in manufacturing are now multiplying, revealing vulnerabilities rarely considered. Copper and nickel production, for example, rely on high heat from natural gas and also sulfur. Both are in short supply, forcing several Indonesian nickel processors to reduce output by at least 10%. And those are some of the knock-on effects that, as a layperson, you don't necessarily see at the surface level.

50:52Jeremy Scahill:We all know that, you know, obviously energy is really critical to a whole lot of things. So, so much of our imports come from Asia. You know, if they're cutting back, well, that is going to have knock-on effects. Obviously, it's huge effects for them directly, but knock-on effects for us and for the rest of the world. So, that impact is already here. And then you also have, you know, a huge number of people that are at risk now of falling into poverty, they say. A UN report estimates 8.8 million people in Asia and the Pacific are at risk of falling into poverty because of the war, depending on how long hostilities last.

51:29Jeremy Scahill:And part of that problem, too, Sagar, as you were talking before, is the issue with fertilizer, shortages in fertilizer coming at a critical time during planting season. And you've got, you know, people, vulnerable people around the world who are going to be facing prices that they simply cannot afford. Put B6 up on the screen because that speaks to the looming food crisis here. This is from the Financial Times. They say hunger and even famine are foreseeable consequences of the war in Iran. Now the world must act to shield the poorest from effects that will continue long after the fighting stops.

52:00Jeremy Scahill:So this is where we already are today. Here we go. In India, where industrial clusters have been shut down for weeks, workers are reversing urbanization, melting back to rural villages to thresh wheat. The cost of acetaminophen and antibiotics has already gone up because of production. For our purposes, TSMC says that they have enough helium on hand for production in the near term, but a prolonged crisis, and then they're going to have real problems. Look, for our purposes, we have a ton of helium here in the US, but again, as I've learned, shipping helium across the ocean is actually not that easy.

52:32It's got to be liquefied. It has to be cooled. It actually evaporates over a certain period of time. Getting it from here to Taiwan would be a seriously costly endeavor. It would potentially, there could even be shortages. There's all kinds of chemicals that are caught in the Persian Gulf, even like offshoots of the oil and gas. Industry urea is another example. I think the price of it is already at an all-time high. I mean, none of this is a joke. And yes, like Asia is a preview of our future, but also they are the closest allies, in my opinion, of the United States, especially economically. Just take a look at global GDP and global trade and like what we do, even with just Japan or South Korea, like their societies have been plunged into genuine chaos.

53:13Like their prime ministers, their presidents are caught. If you read their news every day, it's assuring the public about no shortages and these crazy deals that they're having. They're going to Kazakhstan to buy oil and all. They had the South Koreans and an envoy in Tehran and they were worried. They're like, is he going to die? Because is Trump going to restart the war? Because he's trying to negotiate passage on the very same day that the US does a blockade. I really don't think they will ever forgive us. I think this will fundamentally rewrite the U.S. security relationship in East Asia at a time where we needed to do more to convince them that they should be on our side.

53:52And they were already pissed about the way the toll tariff situation went down. And they feel very burned about that. And now I think – I don't know. I think this one will really be felt for a long time. And Beijing is salivating over it despite whatever podcast person out there. What do they say? It's like 5D chess to beat China. It's like not even Trump thinks that, you know, it's like they invent these ridiculous theorems about how great this is for the United States. I can't think of a single way that this has worked out better for anybody who lives in this country, except for, I don't know, a defense contractor.

54:26That's it. All right. Let's get to the Gulf. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and lets you backtest it against the S &P 500.

55:00Then you can invest in a few clicks. generated assets are like etfs with infinite possibilities completely customizable and based on your thesis not someone else's go to public.com slash podcast and earn an uncapped one percent bonus when you transfer your portfolio that's public.com slash podcast paid for by public investing brokerage services by open to the public investing inc member finra and sipc advisory services by public advisors llc sec registered advisor generated assets is an interactive analysis tool output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures the following ad is sponsored by Pets Best Insurance Services.

55:33You knew right away, he's perfect. The one for you. Those puppy dog eyes, that cute little button nose. You don't even mind the drool. When you find your perfect match in a dog or cat, the love is unconditional. Your budget, on the other hand, has realistic limits. Help protect your heart and your wallet with pet insurance from Pets Best. With plans starting from less than a dollar a day, you can get up to 90 % cash back on eligible vet bills. Pets Best makes it easy to pick a plan that works for you and your bank account. Find the perfect match for your perfect match at PetsBest.com. Pet insurance products offered and administered by PetsBest Insurance Services, LLC are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company or Independence American Insurance Company.

56:13For terms and conditions, visit www.petsbest.com backslash policy. Products are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company, Independence American Insurance Company, or MS Transverse Insurance Company and administered by PetsBest Insurance Services, LLC. $1 a day premium based on 2024 average new policyholder data for accident and illness plans, pets age 0 to 10.

56:30Jeremy Scahill:Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty makes powerful and effective skincare simple, and it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types, and it's designed to work as a complete skincare system, leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth, and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's Full Regiment, which contains all five of her best-selling products, including the amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next-generation serum has the power of Melon Leaf Stem Cell technology.

57:05Jeremy Scahill:It's Melon Leaf Stem Cells encapsulated for freshness and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five-star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and you can get the amazing Meaningful Beauty System for just$49.95. That includes our introductory five-piece system, free gifts, free shipping, and a 60-day money-back guarantee. All of that available at MeaningfulBeauty.com. All right, everybody. This was called Gulf, but actually Donald Trump is doing a live interview with CNBC right now. So we've go ahead and culled some of the most important newsworthy parts of the interview.

57:41We're going to start with this one where Joe Kernan asks, you're saying that you need at least the prospect for a deal today or tomorrow or else you will resume bombing. Here's what Trump had to say. You're saying that you need a at least a prospects for a signed deal today and tomorrow or else you would resume bombing Iran. Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that's a better attitude to go in with. But we're ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go. They are absolutely incredible. You know, I built the military my first term. I'm using it now. The military, when I took it over from Barack Hussein Obama, they had just, it was so depleted, so sad.

58:23And I built it in my first term. You remember those big numbers. You talked to me about it once. That's a lot of money for military. I built it. We did a great job with our military and we're using it now and rebuilding it too. We've done a lot of rebuilding also in my first year. So there you go. Well, I expect to be bombing. The military is raring to go. Of course, could be BS, could be, of course, you know, all a negotiation tactic, but basically saying that the ceasefire will not be extended. All of this is nonsense and has been in the past. It very obviously could be extended, but at least that's

58:55Jeremy Scahill:the message that he wants going into Islamabad. Well, I'm just reflecting on what Jeremy told us, which is that, you know, the Iranians were upset not only about Trump saying we're going to continue the blockade, but also about the continued threats that he insists on making. He made them yesterday saying he's going to bomb Iran. Now here he is again, threatening more bombing. So, you know, in terms of prospect of trying to get the Iranians to the table, this is profoundly unhelpful. Yeah, absolutely. There's more stuff that is coming out. Let's go to the next one. This actually confirm something I was saying a little bit earlier about that ship that was headed to Iran.

59:29Trump is alleging that there was something on board that was a, quote, gift from China. Let's take a listen. Can you give us, I think it's on everyone's mind, the latest on where the Iran negotiations stand. We now know Tehran has publicly confirmed that it will send representatives to the meeting with Vice President Vance. What do you expect? What are you hearing at this point sir well as i said two days ago when they said they won't send them i said they'll be sending them they have no choice but to send them uh what i think is that we're going to end up with a great deal i think it's got i think they have no choice we've taken out their navy we've taken out their air force we've taken out their leaders frankly which does complicate things in one way but these leaders are much more rational it's a it is regime change no matter what you want to call it which is not something I said I was going to do, but I've done it indirectly, maybe, but I've done it.

1:00:26And I think we're in a very strong negotiating position to do what other presidents should have done during a 47 year period. The blockade has been a tremendous success. They said two days ago, we will open the straight. I said, no, we're not going to open the straight until we have a final deal. No, no, we want to open the straight. They said, we're not opening. We totally control the rate, just so you understand, for all the fake news out there. We stocked and we caught a ship yesterday that had some things on it, which wasn't very nice. A gift from China, perhaps. I don't know. But I was a little surprised because I have a very good relationship.

1:01:00And I thought I had an understanding with President Xi, but that's all right. That's the way war goes, right? But I will tell you that we have our military is incredible. That confirms something I said earlier. There were a lot of speculation on what that ship was, why they seized it. This basically confirms it. It was some sort of military equipment. And again, there's speculation there was a specific type of chemical necessary for manufacturing these ballistic missiles. But you take it a little bit earlier to what Donald Trump says there. In the interview, it is more of the bellicosity of the wanting to strike, about wanting.

1:01:34They said that they're going to negotiate or they're going to show up to make a deal. I do think Jeremy's point here is very important. And Trita's been making this point as well. There is substantive movement in terms of the actual negotiation itself. But Trump consistently undermines it because the other side also has to present a win. And he is incapable of saying something other than they completely surrendered and I got everything that I want. And, you know, maybe the Iranians could live with that if they got a lot of what they wanted to and they can project it to their domestic audience.

1:02:05But that's not where things are right now. They're under a literal naval blockade in a state of war against the United States. So I, you know, all of this, I think it makes, I know that the talks are allegedly going to happen. I still think they probably will. Stuff like this does not make it more likely is what I would say.

1:02:22Jeremy Scahill:The best thing Trump could do at this moment is shut the hell up, right? That would be the, but of course that is, he is constitutionally incapable of shutting the hell up. So that was never going to happen. And now you're at this place where, you know, it really is, you know, on a knife's edge. You have competing factions within Iran. You have a very strong faction that does not want these negotiations to go on at all, that did not think this was the right move to begin with. And every time Trump opens his dumb mouth and presents some false victory narrative, claiming there was regime change, claiming we have control of the strait, claiming that he's ready, you know, in the words of Pete Hegg said, that we're reloaded, that we're ready to go back to bombing, the military is raring to go, threatening new war crimes, which is what he did yesterday.

1:03:09Jeremy Scahill:Every time he does this, that makes the job of the, you know, Ghalibovs and the Ratchys who would like to get back to the negotiating table, makes it much, much more difficult for them to be able to make the case to more hardliners who also have sway and power within the government that this is an intelligent direction to go in. And it also, you know, can, And let's say they still decide to go. It also can impact their view of whether these negotiations are serious at all or whether they're just another delaying tactic so that the U.S. can get back to bombing them and to warfare. Because they have lots of good reasons to believe that that is really what's going on here.

1:03:49Jeremy Scahill:And that certainly is possible. So I find this all to be profoundly, profoundly unhelpful. And we know he's calling into CNBC now. We'll probably talk to four more reporters today. and say 10 more contradictory things. And some of them will be indicating, oh, that he wants a deal as we had all those true social screeds yesterday. And then some of them will be probably new threats. This is the way that he operates. And I think it's very clear that his need to constantly fuel his own ego and project all this braggadocio to the world is deeply undermining his interest, his interest in getting to a deal and getting himself extricated from what is a completely disastrous conflict on every single level.

1:04:37Jeremy Scahill:I was listening to an interview with Trita actually this morning before he came in, and the way he put it is that both sides have to walk this careful balance of projecting a win to their population, but not doing so in such over-the-top terms that it ends up humiliating the other side and destroys the possibility of any sort of deal being made. And that is not, you know, delicacy and nuance is not an area that this president is particularly strongly suited for. Yeah. I mean, the more that I just keep looking at all of these comments, it's clear he's manic and he needs to claim victory. And that's Trump is the same way.

1:05:12He's always has believed that he is his best communications director. He doesn't believe anybody else can do it. That's why he constantly undermines. You know, sometimes it works tremendously to his benefit, his ability to dominate everything obviously has been his sole skill set of the last decade. However, in this particular case, I think he's finally met his match in terms of where he's dealing with an enemy that he dramatically underestimated. And now he's stuck in this vice grip where he needs victory, but he also has to get some sort of a concession, but he hasn't totally crushed them and doesn't really have that ability without a full scale invasion.

1:05:46So where things go from here, I don't know. All we can really say from looking at this is saying, if he's going to say, I'm ready to bomb, and the ceasefire is not going to get extended, it's this funny thing. I remember it, you know, with the end civilization truth that he put out, and all the MAGA people were like, oh, you idiots. That's just how Trump talks. He always backs away. Well, then what was the point? Because if you think that, then Iran is supposed to think that they're not supposed to take it seriously. But the madman theory means you're supposed to take it seriously. So shouldn't I take it seriously?

1:06:18I mean, it's like you We preemptively are saying that it's unserious, but if that's the case, then it literally has no purpose in terms of a negotiating tactic or anything else. I just think this is the exact same way where it's purely about his own decision to try and seek some sort of a victory narrative. But in the absence of the Iranians also not willing to play ball, I just think he's making things much more difficult.

1:06:43Jeremy Scahill:Yeah, absolutely, because there's not only the question of do they get to the table, it's also a question of is there any room or possibility to hammer out what will be a very complex deal in a very short period of time? Remember, the JCPOA negotiated over years, and that contained fewer issues than what would have to be negotiated here because you'd basically need to renegotiate the entire scope of the JCPOA on nuclear enrichment and all of these complicated technical details. You also got to deal with the straight. You also got to deal with is the U.S. staying in the region. You've got to deal with sanctions.

1:07:16Jeremy Scahill:You have all of these surrounding issues that have to be hammered out. There has to be some level of trust in order to be able to do this. So every time this president opens his mouth, he makes it more difficult not only for Iran to show up at all, but for there to be some sort of meeting of the minds, some sort of deal that both sides can live with. There was another interesting thing here on part of the topic we were going to originally cover in the Gulf section of the show today, which is that the UAE has been asking effectively for a bailout because they are in trouble. They were being hit.

1:07:54Jeremy Scahill:They have their brand as this sort of like luxury resort country is being completely undermined. they understand they've got an issue. And so they asked for some sort of currency swap line or they asked if that was a possibility. They haven't directly said we need this now, but they've said, hey, you know, in the future, if we need it, is this a possibility? Trump was asked by Joe Kernan, is there some type of currency swap possible with UAE to help if they need it? And do you think there'd be backlash? Trump says it is. It's been a good country, a good ally of ours. It was shocking because we didn't think they'd get hit.

1:08:30Jeremy Scahill:I don't know why they are really rich. So in any case, he seems to be opening the possibility that there could be some sort of effectively dropped bailout, similar to what we did with Argentina for UAE because of the way our war has screwed them. And if you look at the original report from the Wall Street Journal, the UAE came in pretty hard to the U.S. and was like, look, you started this war and now we're having to limit the damage. So you need to help us out of this predicament we're in. a sense, I'm no fan of the UAE or the Gulf. I am almost low-key on their side because, look, they have a ton of money invested in the United States.

1:09:10So if they declare force majeure, if they just stop paying any of it, we almost do need to bail them out if we want to prop up. Because we did create this problem for them. We created this situation. We destroyed the semblance of Dubai and the peace and the entire reason that the global super elite even all want to live there. We have screwed up all of their oil shipments. Their banks are the way station for the global illicit capital, which the entire world, which is very advantageous to us as to everybody else. And then they funnel many of their ill-gotten gains back into our economy. Not saying it's a good system, but some of us do benefit from it.

1:09:48And so what do we do? I mean, it's one of those, and they've committed hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. defense investments. I mean, they don't have a lot of cards to play, but they have the economic one. Maybe they do need to be bailed out. And that's the problem, I think, that they face, the entire Gulf faces, really. Already, you know, you can see a few of these things. Let's put Kuwait up there on the screen. This one is C3. This is Kuwait declared force majeure on shipments of crude oil and refined products from the Straits of Hormuz. They say they're unable to meet a customer's obligations.

1:10:18They can't bring vessels into the Persian Gulf. Get familiar with that term because that's not just about oil. That's also about investments. Remember, I think we put the Balaji Srinivasan take up here very early in the days of the war. He's like, if you're in venture capital and you have any sort of golf investment, you better familiarize yourself with that word because it's very likely that you'll be hearing it at some time in the future. Also, some follow-on effects. Can't say I'm very upset about this one. This is my favorite C4. Yeah. Let's put it up here. Luxury brands bet on the Middle East.

1:10:47War has damaged their plans. High-end brands such as Louis Vuitton and Hermes are looking to other regions as sale in the Persian Gulf nations plummet. I mean, will anybody think of Zegna clothing and Hermes and Louis Vuitton? I mean, it's a tragedy. It's a real tragedy that Bernard Arnault and his LVMH group is going to take such a horrible hit. I mean, I would say personally, this would be a net benefit because Gulf taste has destroyed, you know, all the entire luxury market now for like 25 years. Again, just my opinion. The gaudiness, the Trump style, the Saudi style. Completely European. The gaudiness.

1:11:26When I lived in the Gulf, I remember these women be walking around in full niqab. So niqab is when, I think niqab is everything with the eyes, right? And so they're full niqab and they still have diamonds crusted all around the eyes, like right here. And then the gold Cartier love bracelets when the sleeve would just so happen to roll up. You're like, oh, there it is. And these women are in full burqa going to Dior stores and Prada. For what? You know, you're wearing underneath the burqa. But that's what it's all about. That's the culture over there. It's unbelievable. So, yeah, I don't know. You know, for me, it's a real tragedy.

1:12:03The Louis Vuitton and Hermes and all of these.

1:12:05Jeremy Scahill:Well, but it speaks to a real issue for them. Oh, no, it's a huge problem. Because, again, this is their whole thing, is attracting rich expats from the globe, the global elite. The whole thing is being the playground of the global elite. And so these luxury brands are already saying, you know, this guy is the executive chairman of Zegna, which I've never even heard of before. But it's apparently a high-end men's clothing store. Anyway, he says that merchandise has to go somewhere else. They're hoping they're not hoping that the expats are going to come back to Bahrain and UAE and, you know, and and Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

1:12:41Jeremy Scahill:They're hoping that they're going to keep spending their money just in other cities for global elites. So they're moving their merchandise out of the region because they know that there's it's going to be a long time, if ever, that Dubai and Abu Dhabi in particular reestablish themselves as these sort of safe havens, which are exempt from the tensions of the region. So, you know, this is a reality that is already there for UAW. So, yeah, they're looking at this whole thing and they're like, y 'all dragged us into this. You better help us out of it. And we also know there were a lot of complaints.

1:13:15Jeremy Scahill:There were complaints from the Saudis that they didn't feel they were being protected in the way that Israel was being protected. Which is fair. Yeah. And so all of our bases in the region were hit. There was civilian infrastructure in these countries that was hit. So in any case, I guess Trump is open to giving UAE their lifeline. And I guess they decided that if they signaled they were going to be the closest ally and they did the thing. You know, they took the U.N. resolution up. They said that they would enter directly as combatants. There's some indications they have entered directly as combatants that Trump would repay their, you know, their allyship there.

1:13:53Jeremy Scahill:And I guess this is an indication that perhaps he will. Yeah. I mean, look, like I said, I'm loathe to advocate for a bailout. But in many ways, I'm like, we did screw you. We really did. Totally screw. Also, just so funny down here. foot traffic to Brunello Cuccinelli stores known for their cashmere knit worth has fallen 50 % in the Middle East. I'm like, oh, the tears. This is a place, you're probably not familiar. This is where like Jeff Bezos will buy a t-shirt for like$3 ,000. Or, you know, these are the type of people. I think they have a hat. One of their most famous hats is like 600 bucks.

1:14:25It's literally a baseball hat made out of cashmere. That's the type of brand that we're talking about. So yeah, maybe, you know. Even if you have the money, what are you doing?

1:14:35Jeremy Scahill:It's truly consistent. You know, I love clothing. For that type of money, you could go out to the finest bespoke makers in the world and get something 10 times better. But for them, that's not what it's about. It's just about flexing in St. Barth or any of these other places to Lauren Sanchez's friends. So, yeah, maybe it's a good thing. Maybe it's a good thing.

1:15:10Ever wonder how to make hosting look effortless? Here's a secret. When prepping for cooking and baking, get ahead of the mess with new Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper. Just lightly wet the counter so the paper grips. Lay it down, and drips and spills stay on the paper, not on your counter. Cleanup is as simple as lifting it away to reveal clean counters. Effortless it is, thanks to Reynolds Kitchen's countertop prep paper. Wet it, set it, prep it, done. Available in the Reynolds Wrap Aisle at Walmart and Target. Find home wherever you roam. At Sinesta ES and Simply Suites. Where longer stays feel comfortable, flexible, and easy.

1:15:58Stretch out and enjoy spacious accommodations and home-like amenities designed to help you settle in and stay productive or relaxed for however long you need. And when you're a Senesta Travel Pass member, staying at Senesta ES and Simply Suites means earning points towards free nights, upgrades, and more with every eligible stay. Go to senesta.com to book your stay and unlock the best rates with Senesta Travel Pass. Here today, roam tomorrow. Join now at Sonesta.com.

1:16:28Jeremy Scahill:Terms and conditions apply. This is Ashley Akinetti from the Ben and Ashley I Almost Famous podcast. If you are ready to refresh your wardrobe for spring, BOEM is one of my go-to spots. They have the best everyday pieces. Think really good denim, easy dresses, and outfits that you can actually wear on repeat. Everything feels current without being over the top, and you get great quality without the high price tag. Whether you're getting dressed for work, errands, or weekend plans, BOEM makes spring outfits feel simple. Shop BOEM's new arrivals at BOEM.com. That is B-O-H-M-E dot com. This is an iHeart Podcast.

1:17:08Jeremy Scahill:Guaranteed human.