4/23/26: Global Alarms Over New AI, Kalshi Insider Trading, Tucker Apologizes For Trump Support

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2:39All right, let's talk here about Mythos. Because of the war, we haven't gotten to cover this topic, even though it is extremely important. So let me actually start here, guys, with D2 to give a little bit of backstory on what Mythos is. So this is Anthropic's new AI model. And what they're saying is that Mythos has the ability to go out and scan all sorts of software and find vulnerabilities that previously some of these vulnerabilities were unknown. So you can imagine, let's say you run a bank. And let's say Anthropic put Mythos out into the world. Hacker uses Mythos to identify vulnerabilities in key banking systems, is able to hack in.

3:19you can see how this would be a total and complete potential disaster. So Anthropic decided we are actually not going to release this to the public because it's too powerful. Let me just read you a little bit from this tear sheet. They say, when Anthropic told the world this month it had built an artificial intelligence model so powerful it was too dangerous to release widely, the company named 11 organizations as partners to help mount a defense. All were from the United States. Within two weeks, the model called Mythos had set off a global scramble unlike anything yet seen in the AI era. Mythos, which Anthropics has said is uncannily capable of finding and exploiting hidden flaws in the software that runs the world's banks, power grids, and governments had become a geopolitical chip and a U.S.

4:04company held it. World leaders have struggled to figure out the scale of the security risks and how to fix them. With Anthropics sharing Mythos with only Britain outside of the U.S., the Bank of England governor warned publicly Anthropics may have found a way to, quote, crack the whole cyber risk world open. The European Central Bank began quietly questioning banks about their defenses. Canada's finance minister compared the threat to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Interesting analogy there. So that is mythos. Now we have a new, very unsettling development with regard to this very powerful AI model.

4:38Put D1 up on the screen. According to Bloomberg and others, Mythos has now been accessed by unauthorized users. You effectively have this hacker collective that is organized on Discord that was able to get in and gain access to this model. Now, we don't know that they have nefarious intentions, etc., but if we have confirmed that this group was able to get access, it raises the question of, Number one, obviously, this thing was not as securely protected as it needs to be. And number two, who else may have gained access to this? And, Sagar, I just look at this, and the whole thing is so insane that you have these companies that are able basically with no checks to develop these models and then decide, is it too powerful to release?

5:29Well, we'll release it to this group. And then it's all on their own to determine how secure the model needs to be to keep other actors out. And we're really playing with fire here at this point. So the cope I've heard from the more pro-AI folks is basically that these companies make these catastrophic claims to prove how strong their models are. And at a certain point, I actually am willing to believe that. I don't think it would be the first time in human history a company is claiming extraordinary things about its product. But I think I have now seen enough evidence from the ownership of the company and the people inside those companies who believe the truth about what they're saying to be concerned.

6:10And I also think to follow the trail of some of these different things, we should really take it very seriously. Like with D2, when we put it up here on the screen, I think if we go through and we really scrutinize what they're saying is that setting off the global alarms and emergency response from banks and intelligence agencies is outside evidence that their claims may actually be true. So when the bank is able to report infiltration and then an intelligence agency is able to say, hey, this is actually getting through a vital firewall, this is not an exaggeration of the AI model. It's actually a real concern that they have, which we are not grappling with.

6:50And the bigger problem, as you said, is no federal scrutiny. Here's the – like you can't even bring – let's take drugs, right, like a real drug, like a medical drug. You cannot bring a medical drug to market, which will affect – you can't even bring a medical drug to market, which will affect a few thousand people in a genetic subgroup without rigorous evidence, safety data, and regulator approval. All of us agree with that. However, you can bring a phone to market, and basically, as long as you comply with a few different various consumer regulations, it's fine what the phone does. Let's take that to the AI.

7:28Let's take it seriously. They're saying this can – a piece of software which will radically change security and has so much danger that we have to selectively approve it. There's no regulatory body which says signed off. Now, some of it is scary, right? Do you really want the CIA and others to be signing off because maybe they're signing off because they've been given a zero day? So I accept some of the more libertarian critiques here. But this is so globally important. it just seems to me like you've got to have, I don't know, a presidential advisory body or something, which is saying we've come, here's the standards, here's the transparent review that we've conducted, we believe that it is set to go.

8:08Even that I would feel more comfortable with. A transparent review of experts. But you don't have to leave it in their hands because that's crazy. Because it's insane. I mean, so you've got Anthropic, which is run by the guy who positions himself as taking safety the most seriously. and I think with some, you know, at this point he has some credibility given that he refused to go along with some of the Pentagon's demands. They routinely publish papers that do research not only into their own models but other models to say, okay, this is what we were able to do. So I do think that they have some credibility there.

8:40At the end of the day, though, this is also, you know, a company that is self-interested and that wants to be the first and the best, etc. But, you know, we're kind of lucky that it was Anthropic, I guess, that ended up with this extremely powerful AI, that they took these precautions and realized the problems here. I mean, that's the other possibility is that you may have a limited amount of testing because there's such a rush to push out the next model and win the race and be ahead of the competitors. You could imagine a scenario where the testing is not as extensive and they don't even recognize the level of vulnerabilities that they're able to exploit with these models.

9:14But we're putting all of our faith in the hands of like these handful of, I mean, it's just, it's completely, completely insane. And to your point about, you know, the pushback being, oh, they overhype these products and they claim they're so powerful when really this is just a marketing gimmick. I don't really see how it serves their interest to not release a model because it's too powerful to rule. That means you can't profit off of it. That means that you're really limited in what you're able to do with it. So I think it's hard to see how this really financially benefits them in the short or medium or long term to if they're really truly just overhyping this.

9:47And then another sign to your point of outside evidence of how significant this is, we put D3 up at the screen. So Dario Amidai, who, of course, head of Anthropic and who was blacklisted by the Pentagon and deemed like a national, you know, oh, Anthropic is this supply chain risk. So none of our contractors can even use it. The White House was concerned enough about this that they actually brought him in to discuss what was going on with mythos and AI in general. It says, Anthropic CEO Dario Amidai visited the White House on Friday for a high-stakes meeting with the president's top advisor while his AI company battles the Trump administration in court for blacklisting its clawed AI model.

10:25Amidai met with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, two sources familiar said. Meeting took place as the U.S. government is trying to balance its hardline approach to Anthropic with the national security implications of turning its back on the company's breakthrough technology, including its mythos tool that can identify cybersecurity threats, but also present a roadmap for hackers to attack companies or the government. White House said the meeting was introductory, calling it productive and constructive. So, you know, we're already here with some of the potential scary possibilities of AI.

10:57And yet, you know, this government has decided we just need to be completely hands off. We need to any minimal regulation. There was some very minimal regulation put in place during the Biden administration, that needs to be stripped away. And this is what our entire economy is effectively being bet on. Yeah, that's the scary part, I think. I mean, you know, just generally, I think whenever you really look into the mythos thing, if, and here's, look, when they release it, we'll know whether they're full of shit or not. So yeah, whenever it gets released, we will see how powerful it all actually is.

11:29There has been a lot of freak out. And then, you know, with the bots and all of that stuff, but I think we should compare it to the inflation one that we just did. Change does not happen overnight. The iPhone was released in 2007, I want to say. Ubiquitous smartphone adoption took four years. It was not till 2011 that everybody really had an iPhone or a Galaxy, you know, one of these smartphones. And like the addiction data started to really show up even then in 2012. So it took five years. So I think AI will be very similar. Like you can see what the future may look like. You're never going to know 100%, but you got to take some of these dangers very seriously.

12:09I just think as a generation, we have lived long enough through technological change to know almost certainly that the promises of how great things are going to be are almost certainly not true. And I think we should really grapple with that. Like I lived through the iPhone. I was an adult whenever it came out. It was the first smartphone I ever had. And I thought it was the coolest thing in the world. And sitting here, what, 16 years or so after I got my first iPhone 4, like, I don't think I'm better off with a smartphone. I can say that pretty clearly. I wonder what a lot of other people think.

12:40But, you know, that's why with the AI skepticism that you have to have, I've seen all these promises sometimes by the very same people about how much better off that we would be. And I'm like, I don't think I'm better off. Think about just on the banking piece. Like, I mean, very few people are just like keeping their cash under their mattress, you know, or in gold bars or whatever, you know, we all just rely on these like ones and zeros in our bank account to be faithfully maintained. It only takes one significant instance where that's no longer the case and you can't rely on it. Think of the way that that changes people's mentality.

13:14Think of that way that upends the entire global financial system. I mean, I can't. Just that one thing is completely catastrophic. I can't even stop getting spam calls. Do you? Does this happen to you? Oh. Spam calls? Like my iPhone. On the frigging text, too. Right. My iPhone now has the unknown calls list because there's so many spam. So now imagine with AI and they have the ability to have somebody who can perfectly spoof your relatives. I mean, especially a public figure like me, all you got to do is run it through the AI. You can get me to say whatever you want. And then you're going to call somebody, let's say who's a relative.

13:46These are not that sophisticated of scams, very easily doable. And then like you said, you could set up something, some verification with the bank. It can hack your, maybe your two factor verification very easily. And then boom, you could transfer your entire estate in a matter of seconds if you actually wanted to. So I think, I don't know, I think we need a lot more consumer safety. And I also think the spam call thing is a good example because it's one of those which is an easily exploitable thing from outside actors using the internet. Spam on the internet and specifically targeting old people has been a problem for more than two decades, three decades actually.

14:21The Nigerian scam goes back to the 1990s and is still not fixed. Like, think about that. After with the whole might of the U.S. government and technology and regulators, that still hasn't happened. So what makes you think it's going to get better with AI? I think it's just going to get 10 times worse. Yeah, there's going to have to be some sort of like major incident that causes a massive public backlash to create, generate the, you know, the energy for some significant change in our approach. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. Need a vacation? The Apple Vacations foundational sale is here, so you can save up to$150 on your next escape.

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16:52Let's go ahead and take a quick look at the other thing our economy is built on, which is gambling and crypto. This is an interesting update from Kalshi. They say that they have cracked down on political insider trading and they identify three instances of candidates for political office who were trading on their own races. So in one, you had it in the Minnesota Democratic primary, a candidate in the Democratic primary from Minnesota's second congressional district. You have one in the Texas Republican primary for Texas's 21st congressional district. And then you have a candidate for Democratic primary for Virginia's U.S.

17:33Senate election. Now, we've now identified who this individual is, and he's actually moved from running as a Democrat to running as an independent. And I'll give you his claim of what he was up to here. But, you know, I mean, glad to see Kalshi being like, oh, you shouldn't do this and let's crack down. But it also shows just how insane all of this is. Before I get to the specifics on the candidates, let me put D7 up on the screen because this is another insane example of the way that you can game these things. So a hairdryer at a Paris airport broke the poly market weather markets and made someone$34 ,000 rich.

18:06So TLDR here is that you can bet on what the temperature, the highest temperature in Paris was going to be. Why? Right, why? And someone realized that this was all based on this one sensor that was at the airport close to the Charles de Gaulle airport. So they went up with a hairdryer and heated the air around the sensor. They did this on two separate occasions to 22 degrees Celsius, which seemed like a real long shot because it wasn't going to happen without dude showing up with a hairdryer. Market resolved in their favor, and then they were able to pocket this cash, some$34 ,000. And they did it twice before ultimately they got caught.

18:50So this is, you know, I mean, I really, my eyes were open, Sagar, when I realized you could bet on the color of the dildo being thrown at the WNBA game. That was a real, like a real aha moment for me because it's so obvious in some of these things how they can just be completely completely rigged and um you know the political insider trading one is obviously really scary and detrimental too that you have people who are in a position to impact who gets in and what date they get in and you know how much money they spend and in some ways you know how well or poorly they perform they can sort of point shave the same way that players can point shaven games.

19:26Yeah, but even accepting that frame validates the concept of a prediction market. And that's why what these companies want to do, like Polymarket, Calci, and others, is show how well they regulate stuff to prevent insider trading. So I'm sure Calci's response would be, we don't even allow such bets. It's like, okay, but what is the utility of the bets that you do allow? What is the utility of betting in our marketplace? They would say it allows people to resolve bigger questions, put your money where your mouth is. What possible utility is there in being able to bet on an election and its outcome?

20:03Be serious. Even in the most hyper-regulated market in the world where there's no insider trading, what societal utilitarian benefit to the American consumer is there? I would say nothing. All right? And then what - for being able to bet on the Paris airport. Thank you. Right, but they would say that we're not even allowed to have that one. Well, let's say we're not gonna do that. Let's say, what is an example of a prediction market which is supposed to resolve better than opinions? I would say politics is definitely another one. Usually oil futures, sophisticated derivatives, and all of that, and they're like, well, it's just an option to be able to trade derivatives without trading derivatives.

20:41Why? Why is that good? Can anyone tell me that? This is what happened more recently. Everything about their pitch is a deeply libertarian democratization of finance, which sounds good on paper, which is bad in practice. So the day trading thing, for example. Recently, the Trump administration released or removed a$25 ,000 cash limit that you have to have on hand to be able to place more than five trades in a day. A lot of retail day traders said, great, thank you for democratizing day trading. Let's look at the data. The absolute vast majority of consumer day traders will get wiped out within two to three months.

21:18That's empirical. You can actually go and look at that. If you're not a hedge fund, basically trading on quasi-insider information with market-moving trades, and you really, really have a real place in Wall Street, the absolute vast majority of you will get crushed, and you will lose your money. That$25 ,000 limit was put into place after.com, specifically because a bunch of retail day traders during the.com crash in the 1990s were opening E-Trade accounts and got destroyed at a consumer level. So we've just removed that. Same with CalShe. Why are we betting on oil futures? Like right now, if you want to trade a real oil future, you need like$20 ,000,$30 ,000 in cash.

21:58Even then, I'm not really sure of the utility, but that's the truth is you need high liquidity to be able to make that work. And the real reasoning behind it is you basically need to be rich enough to be able to afford that level of loss. Even that makes me a little uncomfortable, but I can live with it from a regulator perspective. Why open up all of this stuff? The democratization libertarian theory is everyone should be allowed to profit. And the very, very rich are the ones who are only allowed. And I understand that, but the reality is, is you will not win. It's like sports betting. You will not win.

22:32The house is going to win. The house will win. Period. And so it ends up just being another way to suck more cash out of ordinary people. Exactly. And that's why I get really frustrated is there's this whole TikTok pipeline about day trading and retail rentals and Airbnbs and you will lose. Like there is almost certain, almost certain that you will lose whenever it comes to sports betting, day trading. You will not beat the market. Like where there is so much data that is out there, but people want to get rich quick. and all we're doing is enabling these companies, which is why when you enable this democratization bullshit, your personal finance goes down, but the stock of Robinhood goes up because they get to take all those little percentages of those trades.

23:17And Calci, you know what? They're doing this shit for free? No, they're taking small percent here, small percent there. That's how they get rich. And you lose, you know, you lose. And for some reason, this diatribe, it doesn't break through because everybody thinks, but it could be me. I don't know what to do at a certain point, which is why we had regulators and others trying to protect people from themselves. But I don't know. I mean, this is what people want. That's mostly what the data bears out until things become so catastrophic. And then they're like, oh, how could I let this happen? Maybe I should be a libertarian.