4/27/26: Iran Threatens Massive Barrage, Germany Says Trump Humiliated By Iran, Oil Shock Officially Here

23:44It was like a Vietnam War era aircraft from the Iranians that was able to successfully attack one of these bases. Yeah, so this was completely covered up. And let me just read some of the details. The Iranian regime swiftly retaliated after the Trump administration attack on February 28th, hitting dozens of targets across U.S. military bases. In the initial days of the war, an Iranian F-5 fighter jet bombed the U.S. base Camp Bering in Kuwait, despite the base having air defenses. A rare breach that marked the first time an enemy fixed-wing aircraft has stuck an American military base in years.

24:22And actually, I spoke to two or three different people specifically about this. I was like, how remarkable is it? So obviously we haven't had even a pure war or anything like that in a long time. The belief is that this is the first time since Vietnam. And in fact, it's actually a very similar aircraft. But the whole point actually around that is that this is a base equipped with air defense. And it shows how caught off guard the United States military and the United States was whenever it came to initial Iranian retaliation. Remember, that's also the very same time that that base or that tactical operations center was struck, which resulted in the biggest casualty event of the war in the very opening days where they were not protected.

25:00that they did not have drone defenses, and instead they were equipped for more of a suicide bomb potential attack they hadn't updated to the more recent days. I just think that what this highlights, this entire thing, is not just about the Iranian jet being able to attack a U.S. military base to evade or at least get around U.S. air defenses. We have to look at it in totality of not all of the bases just that were struck, the multi-billions in damage, the THAAD radar, the depletion of all of our interceptors from various different weapon systems, some cases 50 % of the most advanced weapons, which are gone and would take probably five to eight years to replace, even at an accelerated level.

25:41We are profoundly, profoundly less prepared for any sort of real conflict after just a, what, five-week war with Iran, which we were told was some sort of a third rate military. This has exposed once and for all the absolute, and look, it gives me no pleasure in saying this, but this is a warning that we've been saying here now for quite some time. We are not prepared for what future warfare is going to look like. And we had a script. It was literally written on the battlefields of Ukraine. And yet we just don't pay attention. We're like, nope, we'll be fine. We're better than them. Our aircraft carriers are more superior and we're just going to keep pouring money into this broken system only for it to just not really work whenever the time comes.

26:27And many sailors, other people are going to say that's really unfair. It's not like we didn't take that many casualties. We were able to do X, Y, and Z. The point is not about the tactical hits that we may have been able to do hit to Iran. You have to look at the strategic picture. They damaged billions of dollars in bases. And the expectation from the military, from every analyst in the world was that if the U.S. went all out against Iran, even without ground troops, that they would be able to inflict a significant amount of damage. And in fact, maybe even be able to collapse the regime. I never thought that last part, but I did definitely think, oh, we could definitely wipe out X, Y, and Z.

27:04Well, it didn't even happen. I mean, from what we know from the U.S. intelligence, it looks like at least a third of the ballistic missiles have survived much of the drone production. Now that you have this pause with ceasefire. They're going to dig out and repurpose much of what was actually damaged. They obviously are also updating their targets for everything. The Chinese are sending all kinds of data. They have a hidden spy satellite. And from the American side, have we really changed the way that we're going to operate now? Not really. We have another aircraft carrier there, which is on the way.

27:34The damage itself is rotten. It's not like you can rebuild a base or a THAAD radar system overnight in the next three weeks, which is just not going to happen. It's, I think, the arrogance. It is arrogant. I mean, that really is the fatal flaw here, right? You can overcome a lot of disadvantages if you understand your adversary, if you respect your adversary, if you plan for that conflict, as Iran has been doing. You know, they were planning to go up against a superpower, and obviously they took that seriously, very seriously. And so you have the specter of, in the person of Trump, this incredible ego, this incredible arrogance, this incredible ignorance of the world.

28:16And like he has like a childlike understanding of the world and a childlike business driven idea of how negotiations work and how, you know, how war will unfold. And that merges with the arrogance and ego of a declining empire. And that's how you end up in this place where he really convinced himself, oh, we'll go in four days, we'll be done. And now here we are. And Iran effectively has us in checkmate. We can put this next piece up on the screen just over some of the most basic elements that they have on their side. This geographic strategic position and their ability to deploy some really basic, relatively low tech technology from drones to now they're deploying more mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

29:00And the reporting is that even if the war and all hostilities completely ceased, it would take six months to go and demine the strait. And that reporting was before you have this additional addition of these new mines that they are laying in the strait. So without the Iranians agreeing to reopen things and work together with us, this is not going back to normal anytime soon if it ever does. I mean, I think what we're looking at really is a new normal. And at the same time, let's put this from CNN up on the screen, we are coming up with these new plans that are just sort of a rehash of the old plans that failed.

29:45This is from CNN. They say the U.S. military is developing plans to target Iran's Strait of Hormuz defenses if the ceasefire fails. And look, I'm sure they can blow up a bunch of stuff around the Strait of Hormuz. Will Iran be able to retain some capacity to send out drones to menace any sort of ships that would want to transit that area? Of course they will. Will they maintain some capacity of their navy, which apparently they've been able to retain something like 60 percent of their naval assets in spite of what Trump has said? Yes, they'll be able to do that. And those mines will remain. And our own ability, apparently, to remove mines from key waterways has been diminished and some of those key ships have been decommissioned.

30:27But in any case, what they say here is the options among several sets of target types under consideration include strikes with a particular focus on dynamic targeting of Iran's capabilities. is around the Strait of Hormuz, Southern Arabian Gulf, and Gulf of Oman, the source said describing potential attacks against small, fast attack boats. That's what Trump was calling the wise guy boats. Mine-laying vessels and other asymmetric assets that have helped Tehran effectively shut down those key waterways and use them as leverage over the U.S. And I don't think anyone should have any expectation that the results of, you know, this new planned potential operation would be significantly different than the results that we have received to date.

31:05Yeah, exactly. Let's continue. Let's put the next one up there on the screen. This one is very important, is that Iran, this is actually from an account in Iran. Iran has, quote, prepared upon observing any signs of an impending strike to launch, quote, the largest missile barrage in history against the occupied territories and certain U.S.-allied Arab countries. Almost certainly they will be targeting the UAE and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and Bahrain, wherever U.S. bases are, but also they mention Israel there specifically. Now, keep in mind that, yes, there has been the ability for both sides to rearm, but our munition stock is very, very low, especially for the types of munitions that we would need if this war were to resume.

31:51It's not like you can just magically conjure bad interceptors out of nowhere. Same with the Iron Dome. Same with many of the interceptors where we know with Israel was down to some double-digit stock and was beginning to ration by the very end of the war. that was probably the biggest existential threat that they faced is they really didn't have that very many munitions left. And even now, if we were to rearm them, there's still not that many, maybe a few weeks or so more, which we were able to scrounge up from our own assets or from, you know, deep within the supply chain. Let's put B5 up here also.

32:23I think this is a really important story because ostensibly this entire thing is about the nuclear program. And what What David Sanger and William Broad write here is Trump seeks to abolish Iran's atomic stockpile, a problem he helped create. They say specifically Trump withdrew from the Obama-era nuclear deal, saying it was the worst deal ever. Iran responded with enrichment spree that haunts the negotiations to this day. And very specifically, and perhaps most importantly, deep within the story, is they reveal that there is a decent enough chance that in the interim period between June and those midnight hammer bombings and today, that a new Iranian enrichment site was set up somewhere deep within the mountains in a tunnel.

33:10They say that the enrichment site doesn't have to be bigger than a grocery store, so it's quite easy to hide, is that clearly it either hasn't been yet destroyed or – again, look, this is assuming that this is real. We don't know. But from what they report inside of the story is that this enrichment site was potentially about to be disclosed before any sort – before the bombings actually even began. Now we don't have any real read on where it is. And if Iran wanted to, they could sprint at least to some sort of enriched uranium and a latent nuclear deterrent threat, considering that they still have their ballistic missile capacity.

33:47The logic right now of getting a nuke and their capacity actually seems to be very—first of all, the logic makes more sense than ever from their perspective. But then their capacity actually seems to have remained completely unchanged as a result of this war. 2%. That is the number of people who take the stairs when there is also an escalator available. I'm Michael Easter, and on my podcast, 2%, I break down the science of mental toughness, fitness, and building resilience in our strange modern world. I'll be speaking with writers, researchers, and other health and fitness experts, and more, to look past the impractical and way too complex pseudoscience that dominates the wellness industry.

34:30We really believe that seed oils were inherently inflammatory. We got it wrong. Many of the problems that we are freaked out about in the world are the result of stress. Put yourself through some hardships and you will come out on the other side a happier, more fulfilled, healthier person. Listen to 2%. That's T-W-O percent on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Iris Palmer, and my new podcast is called Against All Odds, and that's exactly what the show is about. Doing whatever it takes to be thoughts. Get ready to hear from some of your favorite entrepreneurs and entertainers as they share stories about defying expectations, overcoming barriers, and breaking generational patterns.

35:16I'm talking to people like award-winning actress, producer, and director Eva Longoria. I think I had like$200 in my savings account and my mom goes, what are you gonna do? And I was like, I'll figure it out. We got a one-bedroom apartment for like$400 a month and we all could not afford, like I was like, how am I gonna make$100 a month? I'm opening up like I've never before. For those of you who think you know me from what you've seen on social media, get ready to see a whole new side of me. Listen to Against All Odds with Iris Palmer as part of the My Cultura podcast network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

35:55Hello, gorgeous. It's Lala Kent, host of Untraditionally Lala. My days of filling up cups at Sur may be over, but I'm still loving life in the valley. Life on the other side of the hill is giving grown-up vibes, but over here on my podcast, Untraditionally Lala, I'm still that Lala you either love or love to hate. I've been full-on oversharing with fans, family, and former frenemies like Tom Schwartz. I had a little bone to pick with Schwartzy when he came on the pod. You don't feel bad that you told me I was a bootleg housewife? I almost flipped a pizza in your lap. I was so pissed. Oh my god, I literally forgot about that until just now.

36:28Sorry, I don't want to blame alcohol. I gotta blame that one on the alcohol. This is about laughing and learning when life just keeps on lifin'. Because I make mistakes so that you guys don't have to. We're growing, we're thriving, and yes, sometimes we're barely surviving. but we do it all with love. It's unruly. It's unafraid. It's untraditionally Lala. Listen to Untraditionally Lala on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Specifically, what they say here is that the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, had a disclosure meeting with Iran planned for June 13, 2025.

37:07Well, guess what else happened on that day? We decided to attack them. They were bombed. so you know the idea is that this new facility was likely to be the the location of it was likely to be revealed on that day you know whether or not that for 100 sure would happen we don't know but instead of finding out and you know moving forward with the deal that was on the table at that point from the iranians that the omanis were saying hey this is a good deal this is far beyond what even the obama administration was able to obtain instead we decided to go to war and you know, as you and I and many others worried about at the time, they presented it as, oh, we can just go in, we'll bomb the hell on it.

37:47There are nuclear facilities and we'll be out and that's it. That's a wrap, you know, and they'll be set back, et cetera, et cetera. First of all, even on its face, that is a vastly inferior approach than actually having a deal with them that, you know, requiring inspections and being able to long term curtail their nuclear production versus just bombing them and creating some sort of a setback. But now we know that it didn't set them back at all. And of course, it paved the road to the disastrous war that we are in now. And I think there's an interesting quote here that really gets to the heart of the matter in this article.

38:23This is from a nuclear specialist at Harvard. He says, look, we can't bomb away their knowledge. Since a plantain-rich uranium can be comparable in size to a grocery store, the mountains terrain of Iran offers many places to hide a clandestine bomb effort. So you can murder all the scientists you want. You can, you know, bomb around the country. You can assassinate the Ayatollah, et cetera. But they have sufficient knowledge at this point that if they want to pursue and they, you know, have sufficient and highly enriched uranium, you know, stored in places that we don't even know exactly where it is, that if they decide to pursue that direction, they can pursue it.

38:59And the best chance to move us in a different direction was the original Obama JCPOA that, you know, Trump immediately gets out of. And that is what helps start this whole movement to where that we're in now. And, you know, blame lays with Biden as well, who decided not to get back into that deal. And I think that shouldn't be left out here. But ultimately, obviously, it's Trump who brings this disaster truly on in terms of American interest, absolute disaster. Let's go and put B6 up on the screen because this is important in terms of some of the regional dynamics here. Israel sent the Iron Dome system and troops to the UAE during the Iran war.

39:40This is something they've never done before. They've never shared the Iron Dome system with any other country. This is something that would have been unimaginable, you know, probably prior to the Abraham Accords. And I think it also, Sagar, very strongly indicates, and this is something that Dr. Parsi was tweeting about, very strongly indicates the UAE's direct involvement in this war, which is something that they themselves have floated but also been kind of cagey about what their territory and what actions they've been involved in directly. Hard to imagine Israel sending them Iron Dome system and troops if they were not already engaged as effectively combatants in this war already.

40:21No, no question. I mean, beyond that, it actually is a bit, look, I think it's a big problem for Dubai and for the UAE. It's one thing to be in the Abraham Accords. It's another thing to have Israeli troops and Iron Dome systems being used by your country. I don't think that the vast majority of Emiratis are going to be cool with that. And in fact, you know, look, as we always say with these monarchies, they are monarchies, but not in an absolute sense. Like there is some democracy in terms of feelings and the population and their acquiescence to the monarchy and to the royals who rule them. They get paid.

40:59They can make a lot of money, but they don't have freedom of speech. Right. And there's a little bit of a tradeoff. But whenever it comes to the issue of Israel, I mean, that is a very, very hot topic. I think for a lot of the Emirati population. Are they really going to accept Israeli soldiers? I mean, we're talking about Israeli soldiers, IDF soldiers on their soil helping defend their nation. I'm not so sure about that. I also think the bigger problem for the UAE is they really went all in on this war. They made it very clear that they wanted a UN authorization to bomb Iran. Their own jets and others were speculated potentially to have been involved actually in an attack on the country.

41:33Obviously, it hasn't been confirmed, but this was on the very last day whenever it came to the ceasefire. There's also still remains a lot of the questions where, for them, they're furious about the way that everything worked out because, of course, they got their image ruined with Dubai. Their airport was damaged in many cases. And then their entire, like, you know, we've talked about the luxury sales of goods. Many residents have fled the region. They may not be coming back. It might crash their real estate market. So for them, they're feeling like this is existential. And within that, I think that they're making a choice here, which cannot be undone, and will definitely perhaps invite enmity from the rest of the region.

42:12I'm very curious to see how it'll interact with their own diplomatic negotiations by going so all in with Israel, with the United States, for Iran as well. They're going to use this as a reason to attack in the future if they need to. So they definitely cast their lot, I think, with this move. And at the same time, as we mentioned before, I can put this up on the screen from DropSite. Israel continues to bomb in Lebanon. I was just reading a Haaretz story about, you know, the IDF is bragging about they hit 15 war, quote unquote, Hezbollah strongholds or Hezbollah sites. And at least 51 DropSite says Lebanese civilians killed or injured today.

42:52That was from yesterday after more than 20 Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon. It's according to official figures cited by Press TV's correspondent. 14 people, including two women and two children, have been killed. 37 wounded. Total is not final. As strikes are still ongoing. And obviously, Iran has made Lebanon a very central part of their willingness to negotiate. You know, when Trump announced the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, that's when Arachi came out and said, OK, the strait is open. And then Trump undercut that by saying, well, we're going to do a blockade of the blockade.

43:25and we're keeping that in place. So that's how those, that initial thaw was completely undercut by Trump. But now, so long as Israel is allowed to go back in and relentlessly bomb, you know, there's no chance that the Iranians are going to come back to the negotiating table. And just to go back for a second to what I was mentioning before with that Barack Ravid report about, oh, the Iranians came up with a new plan for how they're going to move forward. I mean, that was just basically sort of lipstick on a pig. What the Iranians are really saying is, hey, we don't even want to talk about nuclear with you right now.

43:58We can talk about the Strait of Hormuz and what a new reality is going to be, but we're not even prepared to talk about nuclear anything with you at this point. So we are much further away from even any sort of talks occurring at this point and are in a very, I would say, unstable new status quo as of this morning. One other thing I wanted to update on is a quote now from the German chancellor who says he doesn't see an exit strategy for the U.S. And quote, an entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership. At the moment, I don't see what exit strategy the Americans are choosing. And he goes on to say the Iranians are obviously negotiating very skillfully and clearly stronger than one thought.

44:43So that is from our German allies saying outright, we are being humiliated by the Iranian leadership. They are much stronger. We are much weaker and there is no exit plan in sight. Let's remember, he supported the war in the initial days. So let's all just recall what Mr. Mertz was saying. But I mean, he's right. The straits closed. The energy crisis continues. Yes, I know it doesn't feel like it. Oh, the world is not ending. Yeah, that's not how supply chains and all that work. I again, beg everybody to remember COVID. It took literally months and up to a year for the full spike and the impact of what all of that delay in the supply chain looked at.

45:26Also, have you been to the gas station recently? Yeah, it hasn't gone up much. What is gas right now? Let me take a look. It's$4.11 a gallon. That's still really high. Our producer, Griffin, who's in L.A., he sent us a picture. Let me find it. What was it in his neighborhood? $6.79 a gallon in Los Angeles. $6.79. He says that is the cheapest in his area and that, quote, we are past seven a few blocks away. I mean, I would riot at$7 a gallon for gas. And you know, it tracks California, the state-wide price right now is average, is$5.94 a gallon. They're six cents away from six bucks. And I'm assuming that that is not what the case is in places like LA, San Diego, and San Francisco.

46:14So look, it's not like the immediacy of all of this is not like already being felt. The cheapest gas that I can see right now in the nation is 350 in Oklahoma, which again, I'm pretty sure is right next to the refinery, which is the whole reason that's happening. 2%. That is the number of people who take the stairs when there is also an escalator available. I'm Michael Easter, and on my podcast, 2%, I break down the science of mental toughness, fitness, and building resilience in our strange modern world. I'll be speaking with writers, researchers, and other health and fitness experts, and more, to look past the impractical and way too complex pseudoscience that dominates the wellness industry.

47:02We really believe that seed oils were inherently inflammatory. We got it wrong. Many of the problems that we are freaked out about in the world are the result of stress. Put yourself through some hardships and you will come out on the other side a happier, more fulfilled, healthier person. Listen to 2%. That's T-W-O-percent on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Iris Palmer and my new podcast is called Against All Odds and that's exactly what the show is about. doing whatever it takes to be thoughts. Get ready to hear from some of your favorite entrepreneurs and entertainers as they share stories about defying expectations, overcoming barriers, and breaking generational patterns.

47:49I'm talking to people like award-winning actress, producer, and director Eva Longoria. I think I had like$200 in my savings account and my mom goes, what are you going to do? And I was like, I'll figure it out. We had a one-bedroom apartment for like$400 a month and we all could not afford, like, I was like, how am I going to make$100 a month. I'm opening up like I've never before. For those of you who think you know me from what you've seen on social media, get ready to see a whole new side of me. Listen to Against All Odds with Iris Palmer as part of the My Cultura podcast network available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

48:27Hello, gorgeous. It's Lala Kent, host of Untraditionally Lala. My days of filling up cups at Sir may be over, but I'm still loving life in the valley. Life on the other side of the hill is giving grown-up vibes but over here on my podcast untraditionally lala i'm still that lala you either love or love to hate i've been full-on over sharing with fans family and former frenemies like tom schwartz i had a little bone to pick with schwartzy when he came on the pod you don't feel bad that you told me i was a bootleg housewife i almost flipped a pizza in your lap oh my god i literally forgot about that until just now sorry i don't want to i don't want to blame alcohol.

49:03I got to blame that one on the alcohol. This is about laughing and learning when life just keeps on lifing. Because I make mistakes so that you guys don't have to. We're growing, we're thriving, and yes, sometimes we're barely surviving, but we do it all with love. It's unruly, it's unafraid, it's untraditionally la-la. Listen to Untraditionally La-la on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. that's a good enough transition i think to oil uh because everybody is downplaying this level of shock to the entire u.s economy like there is no way that it can survive uh in the way that it was before as a result of this war yeah like keep coming back to something that rory johnston has told us that he thinks that traders are underestimating the impact because the reality is just too awful to actually price in.

49:55And so this Bloomberg piece sort of speaks to that dynamic. We can put this up on the screen. They say the billion barrel Hormuz oil shock is about to crash demand. The straight of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply. Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming. The longer the vital oil channel does not reopen, traders say, the more consumption is going to have to recalibrate lower to align with supply that's dropped at least 10%. For that to happen, people will have to buy less either through prices they can't afford or government intervention to force consumption down.

50:35A billion barrels of supply loss is already all but guaranteed more than double the emergency inventories that governments released not long after the conflict began at the end of February. Buffers are being used up fast, helping to keep a lid on oil prices for now. But with the closure now in its ninth week, demand destruction that started in less obvious sectors like petrochemicals in Asia is quietly spreading to everyday markets the world over. And so and they go on to say we are at a critical inflection point. And obviously here, no end in sight. You know, not only do we have the Iranians controlling what goes through, you have the U.S.

51:16implementing some level of blockade and going after Iranian ships around the world as well. That's part of the stated policy. And as you were saying before, Sagar, there is some indication that Iran is still able to move some of their oil product. But certainly it is much, much, much, much less than pre-war. So at some point, you know, they use these like economic terms of art, like demand, destruction, et cetera. What does that mean? It means that people will not be able to afford gas. It means the poor world is screwed. It means we're going to have a hunger crisis. It means that, you know, your budget is going to be stretched to the breaking point and you are not going to be going the places that you had planned on being able to go.

51:58It means for working class people, they're going to struggle to afford even just to get to work and have that work out. So that's, you know, that is what we are on the precipice of right now. Yeah. Look, it's already here. Can we put C3 up there on the screen? I'm amazed that this is not a bigger story. This is from the Financial Times. They went through the numbers. It says U.S. motorists skimp at the pump as Iran war keeps petrol prices high. I love British phraseology. They say between February and March, average petrol sales, that's gas for those of us here in the U.S. per station in the northeastern U.S.

52:33fell 4.3 % in March compared with a 0.6 % growth in the same period as last year. This is from data which tracks consumer spending at more than 23 ,000 gas stations across the nation. How is this not a bigger story? In the northeastern United States, gas demand has fallen by 4.3%. That is actually huge. Again, as they point out, last year, 0.6 % of an overall increase. I mean, as I understand it, when the weather gets better, People tend to drive more and they take more trips. This is something which is very expected. That's part of the reason why whenever the weather starts to get out February to March, you're going to start to see a spike.

53:07You've got almost a 5 % drop in gas demand in the very same period as when you had an increase over or at least stasis in the same period of last year. 5 % gas is huge. I mean, it's not like you can 5 % for a commodity which the vast majority of people are going to basically drive no matter what. It takes a lot for people to consume less gas. And to say 5 % as if it's like some willy-nilly thing is just not accurate, I think, whatsoever. Think about what a 5 % drop in consumer spending in the United States would mean. It would be catastrophic, actually, for a lot of the U.S. retail industry. What would 5 % mean whenever it comes to GDP or any of these things?

53:49Like, it is not a small number, and it is a number from just one month that we saw an overall reduction in the amount of gas consumption. So that's here. I mean, look, I can only speculate, but there's just no way if gas in Los Angeles is going for$6.79 a gallon or$7 a gallon, something like that, that people are going to be driving as much. It's just not possible, like literally financially. without, I don't know, crazy credit card debt, people are going to make maybe the conscious or the unconscious choice of saying, we're not gonna do X, Y, and Z. And remember, gas is just about on your way to go there.

54:23It's also about all the things you might've spent and the dollars that you may have had once you had arrived at that different destination. So this is a serious quality of life hit, period. And I think it will also show up very soon in the data. Let's put C4 on the screen. This was another report, which I was reading just yesterday. So Goldman Sachs put out a new report basically for their own – like it's a research-style report. And they forecast that the U.S. could lose 10 ,000 jobs a month this year as the oil shock ripples through the economy. This was in a client note. A team of economists at the bank said they anticipate high unemployment and slow job growth to ripple through the end of the year as the impact of high oil prices ripples across the economy.

55:08In the bank's base scenario, the oil price would shave off 10 ,000 jobs a month through the end of the year, even after accounting for expected job gains in the energy sector. The bank also said it expects unemployment to tick higher to 4.6 by the end of the third quarter, and the economy will lose 92 ,000 jobs, just as part of the latest non-farm payrolls report. The upward pressure on unemployment primarily reflects lower hiring with a smaller contribution from higher layoffs in industries most exposed to weaker consumer spending. And I think that will be, I mean, remember, Crystal, during COVID, very similar.

55:45Hospitality at one point, what was their unemployment rate? It was like 80%. And so if you see a similar reduction in gas demand, you will very likely see something happen like that where people travel less and you start to see bookings and like that go down in the coming months ahead. Not to mention jet fuel and the airline price increase as well. Yeah. Now, there is one for the empire's perspective. there is an offsetting sort of dynamic here, which is that while you're getting screwed at the pump, you know, the oil producers are making money hand over fist. And since you have, you know, the Middle Eastern sources of oil greatly reduced, people are coming to, you know, to buy American oil in droves.

56:30Like the, you know, amount of exports of American oil are skyrocketing. So, no, that doesn't help you. but in terms of those oil executives and shareholders and in a certain sense in terms of the interest of the empire where then we have control over a larger share of the pie the overall pie has been reduced but what remains we have larger control over that share of the pie there is somewhat of an empire benefit here the problem is though that you know if you go beyond that energy control i mean there's a bunch of problems number one what the bet if you're thinking in that direction. The bet is basically that the rest of the world will suffer more than us.

57:10That doesn't mean we don't suffer, right? That means we still suffer a lot, just less than the rest of the world. So maybe that helps us hold on to our hegemony. But I think that is a really flawed way of thinking about things when you consider how vulnerable we are because of how little we make here, how few of like critical supply lines we've been able to take control over. Energy is just one resource of many that are required even just to, you know, reequip ourselves from a defensive or war footing perspective. But when Trump talks about like, oh, we've got all the time in the world and everyone's going to come buy our oil, et cetera, I think that is part of what he's thinking about, even as the cost to you at not just at the gas pump, but with food inflation, with joblessness, with a stagnant economy, even though the costs there are very, very high.

58:04This is why, look, the numbers you pay attention to are the ones which decide how you think the economy is doing. So the S &P is actually nearly an all-time high. It's only down 0.07 % today. And Brent crude is, what,$107? That's still very high compared to where things are. So you might ask, like, why are these things not showing up? Well, one of the reasons why the S &P is on a tear is because of AI. It has nothing to do with consumer spending. I mean, it has some to do, but very recently, the vast majority of the gains are concentrated in AI and in tech. Now, maybe that bubble will burst. Who knows?

58:36But at the very least right now, you have all these crazy IPOs. OpenAI and Anthropic are anticipated to go for boom. I was just reading yesterday, like signs of froth are everywhere in the market. But the point is, is that that's not necessarily as connected to how you or I are experiencing these different things. Electricity bills are going up across the country with record power demand because of data centers, but not necessarily because of anything, you know, all that productive. We just talked about oil. So while you may suffer at the pump, if you own a Houston Rolex dealership or a Dallas car dealership, you're doing great, right?

59:13I mean, you're booming. So there are certain pockets of the economy and of the top line numbers, which will do very well. It's really about how that's all going to impact the average person and their general consumer experience, I think, in the country. And that's very, very obvious. And yet, look, we already know that it's not like people listen as a result of those things. But the powerful force of the 2024 election, which turned so much on inflation and the comparison between the Biden years and the initial Trump years. I mean, you cannot underestimate that as a political force going forward.

59:48Let's put C5 up there on the screen also just to show you where's the priorities. The Secretary of the Treasury is out here defending, quote, U.S. dollar swap lines as Iran war harms global finances. Basically, this is a fancy way of saying that the U.S. will participate in a bailout of the Persian Gulf during the Iran war. He said, current countries about U.S. dollar swap lines are part of an ongoing routine conversation that Treasury has been having with our partners over a number of years. had previously said many allies in the Gulf seek the same backstop as it wreaks havoc on oil-rich nations' economies.

1:00:27It's, again, a very, very fancy, fancy way of saying that we're gonna bail out the UAE as a result of the war. And look, I mean, I'm not a fan of the UAE. I just talked about it and all that. I do kind of get it. They're like, you ruined our economy. You have to help us. Same with many of these other Gulf countries. But just think about the headlines. They're bailing out Spirit. There's currently a$2.5 billion bailout offer from some of the budget airlines for the government to take equity stakes in their companies. Again, because they're getting slammed by jet fuel. Now we're going to bail out the UAE.

1:01:00We bailed out Argentina. Who else? Can we bail out anybody here? Right? And, you know, if you look at that from a politics headline perspective, that really is going to make people mad. I remember when we bailed out Argentina when those farmers were getting hit. And we literally played a pro-Trump farmer here. He's like, I can't believe they're bailing out Argentina while I'm here getting screwed by the same administration's policies. Well, Trump told you he gave you that answer. He said we can't do Medicare. We can't do Medicaid. We can't do health care for people. We can't do daycare because we've got to do war.

1:01:32I mean, those are almost exactly his words. He put it quite plainly. Well, no, we're not going to do any bailout for ordinary Americans. No, that's not on the table. We've got to wage these wars around the world. Why? To make things worse for everybody. to make your life even harder, to make a bunch of military-industrial complex war profiteers a lot wealthier. That's apparently the reason here, to create distressed assets for his billionaire buddies to buy up. And there's a very interesting tweet from, if you aren't following Mr. Goliboff, the Iranian parliamentary speaker on Twitter, I highly recommend that you follow him.

1:02:08He likes to jump in with some interesting financial analysis because that is part of his background. background. And so in reaction to this story of a likely currency swap line for the UAE in this bailout, he says this, let's put this up on the screen. He says, swaps given to prevent disorderly sale of U.S. assets, meaning treasuries. Translation, some holders can't sell. In case you don't know, hidden single digit percent sale cap limits some institutional holders. Door closes if things escalate, get out while open. Their front line is the yield curve. Okay, so what does all of that mean? Basically, what he's pointing to is the fact that this administration and sort of has to watch the bond market very closely.

1:02:53Because if you're having to offer a higher interest rate to lure people in to buy treasuries, what does that mean? It means our borrowing costs escalate. It's a financial catastrophe for us. So we've seen previously, especially with regard to the tariffs, that Trump is very sensitive to movements in that yield curve. That's why he says their frontline is the yield curve. OK, how does that connect to UAE? Well, there's a couple of sort of both overt and more subtle threats that the UAE made. One of them is they would need to sell some of their treasury holdings if they are running low on dollars.

1:03:29So that would be, you know, that would be a problem for the treasury market and other countries may have to do that besides. And then the other threat that they made is, hey, we're not going to have the dollars to be able to pay for oil in dollars. We're going to have to denominate our, you know, our oil transactions in Chinese yuan. So that's why Scott Bessent and Trump and everyone's like, no, no, no, no, don't do that. Don't worry. We got you. We'll do this currency line. So that's, that is what's going on here. But Galiboff demonstrating a very sophisticated understanding of some of the pressures that the U.S.

1:04:02is under and I guess some of the cards that the Iranians continue to hold. Whether it's his account or not, nobody knows really who's running it. They're very savvy because it's not just about diplomatic messages that are being posted. Much of it is aimed directly. In some cases, what was it, like the ticker on the Bloomberg? I'm not financially savvy enough. It was the command that you enter into the Bloomberg terminal for oil, for like oil crude prices. If you don't know what we're talking about, sophisticated traders use something called a Bloomberg terminal. What's a subscription for a Bloomberg terminal?

1:04:40It's like$20 ,000 a year or something to get one. And like just to be able to trade on, just to give you an idea. AI is definitely going to destroy that business. If you've ever, if you've ever, I think my college library had a Bloomberg terminal or two. So if you're in college and you're a student and you want to know what Goluboff is talking about, go and start plugging those things. I've never actually used one, but I have a few friends who have. But again, that's the audience who he's speaking to. He's trying to speak to the people who move the markets and trying to, I guess, talk some sense from his perspective into some of these oil traders.

1:05:11In a sense, though, I don't even know what else. Everything in our media seems totally disconnected. I just see it. Every day, gas is above$4 a gallon. I'm like, this is a crisis. Brent crude is$107. I'm looking at it right now. It is up 78 % year to date. What are we doing here? 80 % increase in the oil price? I mean, there's just no world. If I look at West Texas, it's 95, 19. Same thing. It's up like 70-something percent from where we were as of four or five months ago. Like that is – there's no describing. If I told you that before even the Iran war or on January 1st of 2026, I said oil is going to go up by 80 percent.

1:06:01How would anybody react to that? But people are covering it as if, oh, the ceasefire. Yeah, look, we're going to talk about the shooting. I agree. It was a big deal. Most of the reason that all the press, though, is obsessed with it is because they're all there. That's why they think it's like the big, they're all like processing their PTSD or whatever. I'm like, yo, the gas is four bucks a gallon. Gas in California is$6 a gallon. Every single day that this continues, it's a nightmare. And I don't know. I don't see the pressure from others, you know, outside of a few Barack Ravid or other types of tweets to recognize, I think the level of havoc that this is already having and will continue to have in our economy.

1:06:37It's genuinely driving me nuts.

1:06:54On the Sino Show podcast, each episode invites you into a raw, unfiltered conversations about recovery, resilience, and redemption. On a recent episode, I sit down with actor, cultural icon, Danny Trail to talk about addiction, transformation, and the power of second chances. The entire season two is now available to bench, featuring powerful conversations with guests like Tiffany Addish, Johnny Knoxville and more. I'm an alcoholic and without this group, I'm going to die. Listen to Sino's show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, I'm Bob Pittman, chairman and CEO of iHeartMedia, and I'm kicking off a brand new season of my podcast, Math & Magic, Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing.

1:07:33Math & Magic takes you behind the scenes of the biggest businesses and industries while sharing insights from the smartest minds in marketing. Coming up this season on Math & Magic, CEO of Liquid Death, Mike Cesario. People think that creative ideas are like these light bulb moments that happen when you're in the shower. Or it's really like a stone sculpture. You're constantly just chipping away and refining. Take-Two Interactive CEO, Strauss Selnick, and our own chief business officer, Lisa Coffey. Listen to Math & Magic on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

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