4/6/26: Trump Moves Iran Deadline, Israel Hit By Missiles, US Pilot Rescue Operation

23:35Well, that emboldens Trump. Then he feels, oh my God, we're such badasses, like, let's go for it, right? Let's say that it was kind of low-key, a catastrophic disaster, and you ended up with, you know, having to destroy$400 million worth of equipment on the ground, barely got your asses out without, you know, potentially hundreds of lives lost of U.S. service members, kind of a task. You weren't able to actually do accomplish the goals that, you know, beyond this rescue, which there were possibly other goals beyond the rescue of this one airman. So, well, that means then now you're frustrated, you're humiliated.

24:08What does that mean? You have to escalate. You have to do something else. So you could see these true socials either as he feels emboldened and his confidence just like coming out of Venezuela. He thinks that he loves seeing the American military be such badasses. And so that makes him want to go further. Or you could see it as frustration and lashing out, which also makes him want to go further. So either direction leads to effectively the same result. And everything turns on the knife's edge, right? So even in this operation, look, I mean, who cares ultimately about aircraft getting blown up?

24:43We saved a guy. That's great. However, let's look back to Venezuela. If this warrant officer, the guy who got the medal at the State of the Union, if he had not just, like, been an absolute unit and he'd been just, like, one other person, everybody on that helicopter is dead. Like, that's literally a completely other story. So, like, you don't want to keep putting yourself where things turn on the knife side. No, right now it's turned out it's working somewhat favorably for the United States. We're able to execute this. But, look, I mean, we still lost an F-15. We lost two A-10s. We lost all these helicopters.

25:13We've gotten all these MQ-9 Reaper drones, which are getting shot down. We're losing billions of dollars with aircraft already as a result of the war. You've got rural villagers in Iran who were firing on our helicopters and doing whatever they can to make things life tough as well. Showing also that, oh, oops, we're not being greeted exactly as liberators, are we? And so now imagine a ground invasion. But the worst case, my greatest fear was he was taking POW because now it's Vietnam all over again. Remember all those POW MIA flags back from the 1970s and 1980s? Now we're going to go and save our boys.

25:48We're going to have some crazy ass Delta Force missions to trying to go and do something. Eagle Claw, some sort of a nightmare. I mean, who knows, you know, how stuff like that would work. I think we're going to have to go kidnap somebody, try and make some sort of a hostage exchange or something. It would be real madness. Let's put A8 also just to show everybody. This, remember, is the alleged negotiator with the United States. This is Golubov, the speaker of the Iranian parliament. He's responding to Trump's true social. Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living hell for every single family.

26:17Our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahu's commands. Make no mistake. You won't gain anything through war crimes. The only real solution is respecting the rights of the Iranian people and ending this dangerous game. So remember, they've rejected the temporary ceasefire. This is their defiant response to the power plant blow up. And they also know that Trump is really trapped in this market problem of his where he both doesn't want to appear weak. He's moved the deadline how many times now? One, two, three, four, five. This is the fourth deadline move. I think this is the fourth deadline now to the Tuesday 8 p.m.

26:53Eastern time for what that's going to look like. Like, they know that this would unambiguously send oil prices soaring because Iran will almost certainly respond by blowing up multiple other energy infrastructure across the Gulf. So then what's going to happen as a result of that? They'll probably further take control of the Straits of Hormuz, and it will get much, much worse. So all around, like, we're in a bad position. This is—I've said it now for weeks. I do not see a possible way out from here. Like you have to basically lay on your sword, which he's not going to do, especially after the special operations.

27:31Right. He's running high. He's doing a press conference today around 1 p.m. at the White House. I wouldn't be surprised if the airman was there and flown overnight to appear like a big celebration from the U.S. So that's the mindset of everybody who's in Washington right now. Yeah, I mean, could be. And then the media strategy has also been interesting. Like they didn't send really anyone out on the Sunday shows yesterday to talk. I don't think I don't think anybody. Right. Not a soul, not even like a besant to talk about the markets or whatever. Nobody. And instead, you have Trump calling these various reporters and saying various insane and contradictory things.

28:06Trey Yankst over at Fox News has been one of the recipient of some of these phone calls. We'll talk about some of his reporting. It's not reporting. It's just Trump. Right. Telling him later. Yeah, we we sent arms to the protesters via the Kurds. Yeah, we totally did that. But in any case, let's take a listen to this quick soundbite of Trey telling everybody that, you know, one of the things Trump said is, oh, we're going to go in and take the oil. Let's take a listen to that. The president tells me if they don't make a deal and fast, I'm considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil.

28:35The president went on to say you're going to see bridges and power plants dropping all over their country. Blowing everything up and taking the oil. OK, you know, good luck with that. I mean, we just continue to get new objectives, new goals every single day. And, you know, no straight answer about this war. What this war is even about. Is it about the Strait of Hormuz, which is only closed because of the war? Is it about taking the oil? Is it about the nuclear program? Is it about the ballistic missiles? Every day there's new shifting explanations. So this is just the latest of, oh, we'll just blow everything up and take the oil.

29:07Yeah, OK, good luck with that. Yeah, and to the point about the logic of the war, it starts to become, this is very First World War-esque. The logic of continuing the war is to try and defend the territory which we took in the opening days of the war. You're like, well, we can't give that up. We've lost too much for this scrap of land. So now we have to lose 10 times more to make sure that we don't lose this scrap of land. And then vice versa, right? Well, now we have to defend this one scrap. It's like it didn't even matter. It's not even all that important, except millions die as a result of that.

29:42You can imagine we take Carg Island and then it's like, oh, we have to defend Carg Island. We have to defend, we've wasted too much, we've come too far to go back. Too many lives have been lost, too much equipment lost, all that. Remember from the address, he even said, we have to avenge their deaths as 13 Americans. That's another thing where for all of the talk about how great things have gone, I feel like it's very minimizing for all 13 Americans who have died as a result of the conflict. And this, you know, that those refueling tankers, which got that was a big deal. And nobody talks about that.

30:13Right. But for some reason, you know, we will we we underanalyze the disasters and we over celebrate a lot of the victories when you really balance it out together. you know, we're not anywhere closer to the strategic aim of the war. And many of the claims by the White House, by the Pentagon have proven to be absolute nonsense. There's no air superiority, total air superiority over Iran. They obviously still have a huge amount of their ballistic missile capacity. It's certainly not 95 % destroyed. The regime remains stronger than ever. And the Straits of Hormuz is under de facto Iranian control.

30:46So it has been a failure, I would say on all four of the major like strategic goals that were laid out in the beginning of the war. All right, let's go ahead and talk a little bit about what's going on with Israel. If you are a founder or a freelancer or the friend who always says, hey, you know what? What if I started that? This is for you. I'm telling you I had nothing to my name. I didn't know a single person in New York. And somehow I'm dressed by Oscar de la Renta walking down that red carpet. This month we sit down with entrepreneurs and creators who actually did it. who turned this scary leap into a business, a paycheck, and a life they are proud of.

31:22Direct center of our happiness or our regrets is whether or not we're taking action on the things that matter to us. They're not selfish. They're so important. They actually lead to our greatest contributions because when we're living fulfilled, we actually show up better everywhere. We lead better, we're better friends, we're better relationships and collaborators and all those things because we have passion about the things we're doing. If you're trying to build something of your own this year, Join us in these conversations that will make you braver and smarter with your money. Listen to Dos Amigos as part of the Michael Tura Podcast Network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

31:59Hey there, folks. Amy Robach and TJ Holmes here. And we know there is a lot of news coming at you these days, from the war with Iran to the ongoing Epstein fallout, government shutdowns, high-profile trials, and what the hell is that Blake Lively thing about anyway? We are on it every day, all day. Follow us, Amy and TJ, for news updates throughout the day. Listen to Amy and TJ on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

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33:31All right, so there was some significant damage within Israel due to an Iranian strike and an apparent interceptor fail. Let's go and put this up on the screen. So this is from Haaretz. We now have some news of deaths here. So rescue teams recover the bodies of four victims who were killed in an Iranian missile strike. This original headline said that four were feared trapped. Now we know that rescue teams have, in fact, recovered those bodies. They carried out careful operations at a six-story residential building struck by an Iranian missile on Sunday night. The four were trapped on the building's bottom floor as the top three floors collapsed.

34:09And obviously what's significant here, Haifa's been hit a number of times actually seems to be a real focus of Iranian efforts. And in addition, obviously the fact that you had an interceptor fail here and you have the Iranians able to still exact this kind of damage and actually kill Israelis within the state of Israel is quite extraordinary and just shows you obviously they aren't backing down and they feel very much like they have the upper hand in a lot of ways. Well, it's what we just talked about is that when you open the door to destruction of infrastructure and civilian death, well, then when Iran is able to do it on a much more limited scale, nobody's going to cry for you, right?

34:47Like the Israelis are like, oh, well, they are targeting civilians. And you're like, well, it's one of those where they're kind of just doing what a lot of you guys have been doing, which I think neither party should do it. I think it's bad, but you can obviously see the degradation of Iranian or the degradation of Israeli air defense systems, of their missile interceptors. Their Arrow 2 and 3s are running rapidly low. Remember that analysis I brought everybody. If the track of the first 16 days of war had continued, they would have run out as of a couple of days ago. And so they have to severely ration.

35:21The reason why Iran continues to strike Haifa is because of those oil refinery facilities. And actually, you can see it very obviously in the response of the Israelis. So can we put A12 up there on the screen? In retaliation for this strike, Israel just this morning attacked the largest petrochemical facility in Iran. According to the defense minister Katz, two facilities were responsible for 85 % of Iran's petrochemical exports that have now been put out of operation. So obviously, this is in retaliation for multiple of these strikes, which have pummeled Haifa and the oil refineries over there.

36:01Israel is responding. The problem, though, is that it's not like Iran just responds to Israel and continues to hit their refineries. When their infrastructure goes out, then they respond to the U.S.-Israeli coalition of the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia. Already, A11, if we can, up there on the screen. You could see the statement from the Ministry of Electricity and Water Renewable Energy of Kuwait, assault on two power generation stations and water desalination plants in Kuwait. Remember, Iran is way less reliant on desalination plants than the Gulf countries who only have like two weeks supply or something like that of water.

36:40It would be an absolute mission critical disaster for them if this didn't end up happening. And we are setting the stage because we're still, what, 36 hours away from Trump's deadline. And if that does actually happen, the power plant strikes, we will see exactly this time of attack times 10. God only knows what the Straits of Hormuz and or ground operation. So it's total war in the region. Yeah. And we also haven't even – the Houthis have sent some sort of almost like warning strikes. But they have not operated to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which would further paralyze the oil markets. Now, I will say you were alluding to the fact there has been some reporting from the Strait of Hormuz that more is getting through than is readily available.

37:25But there's still no doubt the millions of barrels of oil a day that were getting on the market are no longer getting on the market. and also significant in terms of how this missile was able to evade Israeli interceptors that were fired at it. So apparently, number one, the warhead on the ground, this is a separate thought, but the warhead actually didn't detonate. So it would have been far more catastrophic for the Israelis if it had. It collapsed one building, but you would have had obviously a larger blast zone. But apparently it was able to sort of evade these interceptors and also to split into multiple pieces.

38:04And so this is a demonstration of higher level Iranian technology as well, which is part of why they've been able to continue to do the damage that they have. We know that according to our own intel, that something like only a third of their missile stockpile has been destroyed. Another third may have been damaged or buried, but they've been able to access, re-access that sometimes within the same day. So they still have significant capabilities. They have still significant steps up the escalation chain that they could take. Within Israel, the public is overwhelmingly in favor of the war, although the support for it has slipped some as people are getting a little tired of living in bomb shelters all the time.

38:44And then with the Gulf states, the logic for them is basically like, look, we're in this thing now. Now, if you leave Iran with this regime in place, we are totally screwed. This is not a situation that we can live with. It is untenable. I agree. So you have UAE in particular saying like, listen, we'll go all in with you. We will be active combatants. They're the ones going to the UN to try to get this resolution passed of like use any means necessary to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So this hardening of logic is occurring on both sides, truly. That's the problem. Also, literally while we're recording, this is from Trey Yanks and multiple other reporters.

39:17heavy incoming fire towards Tel Aviv. They are reporting, Jim Sciutto is there for CNN. He is saying similarly on the ground in Tel Aviv, quote, there are an unusual number of explosions during this air raid, multiple interceptions or attempted interceptions, possibly indicating multiple incoming missiles, three air raid warnings all in a row. So some very heavy missile incoming fire over Tel Aviv, the major city in Israel, demonstrating, again, of their missile capacity. And remember, they are rationing. They have been basically firing a number of missiles, but more in recent days than they did in the two to three weeks.

39:57They exhausted many of those interceptors, and that's why a lot of their stuff is now able to get through. They're saving the suicide attack drones and missiles for very precise targets in the Gulf, and we expect that to continue. And there will be some cope and potential propaganda from the U.S. government. around how about if we take out the power plants, that this will reduce Iranian ballistic missiles. I was reading how exactly they're able to fire these missiles. It is First World War-esque. They have field telephones, which the type of things where you can crank like this with buried underneath telephone wires between commanders who will pick up the phone and be like, fire at this target in retaliation.

40:36And they have literal messengers. Like if you've ever watched the movie 1917, that's what it is. Remember they cut the telegraph wire and the guy has to go and deliver a message, that's literally what's happening. So this is, I mean, it's effectively bomb-proof. Like, if they figured it out over 100 years ago on the Western Front, that's basically being recreated, just to show you all warfare eventually reverts down to the mean of messengers, field telephones, buried wires. And if you want to communicate, you will eventually figure it out in terms of the answer for, wait, why are we not able to disrupt it?

41:08It's because they're like, okay, our phones are bugged, can't use WhatsApp, that's what they're doing. Even if you wipe out the power plants, it's not like you're going to – you're not going to cut every wire. That was very often some of the – those were literally some of the goals often of some of the artillery and mortar missions from the First World War. And then even when they were cut, you just use bodies and messengers. So that's the reality of war, and it will just continue. It's really bad. All right, we've got Brandon Weikert standing by. Let's get to it. If you are a founder or a freelancer or the friend who always says, hey, you know what?

41:38What if I started that? This is for you. I'm telling you I had nothing to my name. I didn't know a single person in New York. And somehow I'm dressed by Oscar de la Renta walking down that red carpet. This month we sit down with entrepreneurs and creators who actually did it. Who turned this scary leap into a business, a paycheck, and a life they are proud of. Direct center of our happiness or our regrets is whether or not we're taking action on the things that matter to us. They're not selfish. They're so important. they actually lead to our greatest contributions because when we're living fulfilled, we actually show up better everywhere.

42:12We lead better, we're better friends, we're better relationships and collaborators and all those things because we have passion about the things we're doing. If you're trying to build something of your own this year, join us in these conversations that will make you braver and smarter with your money. Listen to Dos Amigos as part of the My Cultura Podcast Network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Amy Rovock alongside TJ Holmes from the Amy and TJ podcast. And there is so much news, information, commentary coming at you all day and from all over the place.

42:44What's fact, what's fake, and sometimes what the F. So let's cut the crap, okay? Follow the Amy and TJ podcast, a one-stop news and pop culture shop to get you caught up and on with your day. And listen to Amy and TJ on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. I feel like it was a little bit unbelievable until I really start making money. It's Financial Literacy Month, and the podcast Eating While Broke is bringing real conversations about money, growth, and building your future. This month, hear from top streamer Zoe Spencer and venture capitalist Lakeisha Landrum-Pierre as they share their journeys from starting out to leveling up.

43:27If I'm outside with my parents and they're seeing all these people come up to me for pictures, it's like, what? But today now, obviously, it's like 100 percent they believe everything. But at first it was just like, you got to go get a real job. There's an economic component to community thriving. If there's not enough money and entrepreneurship happening in communities, they fail. And what I mean by fail is they don't have money to pay for food. They cannot feed their kids. They do not have homes. Communities don't work unless there's money flowing through them. Listen to Eating While Broke from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

44:05Very excited now to be joined by our friend Brandon Weikert. He's a senior editor at 1945.com. Great friend of the show. Good to see you, man. Thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me as always. So, Brandon, we want to go through the story of this raid inside, deep inside of Iran to rescue a weapons systems officer who was part of an F-15 crew, which was shot down over Iran. Of course, there's now an official story from the Pentagon. We want to get some of your reaction to all of that and potential some other theories. Let's go and start with Donald Trump's announcement. We'll put it up here on the screen.

44:38He says, we got him, my fellow Americans, over the past several hours. The United States military pulled off one of the most daring search and rescue operations in U.S. history. He talks specifically about how all of the – it's a miraculous operation, et cetera. The official story of the operation was recounted here by Jack Murphy. He is the journalist actually who broke the initial news that this weapons system officer had been recovered. Let's take a listen to what he said. We're going to get your reaction. But the broad pieces of it, as you know, there was an F-15 pilot on the ground who was escaping and evading for about 24 hours inside Iran.

45:15And from what we can tell about the effort to get him back, they did a lot of airstrikes to keep the Iranians off of his back. The Iranians have flooded a lot of assets into the area. We're actively searching for him. And meanwhile, we have to get a ground team, helicopters in to actually extract the guy. And as we now know, they set up what's called a FARP or a forward air refueling point. So for people who aren't familiar, when you have to fly helicopters, but also airplanes sometimes, especially long distances, you have to set up some sort of like a fuel depot. You know, I did this many moons ago for little birds in Iraq, you know, just driving out somewhere and taking a fuel blip out, leaving it in a field for a little bird pilot sometimes.

46:01This is a little bit more elaborate. There's a C-130 aircraft flown in that was refueling some of these helicopters. And this kind of plays into, you know, how the pilot was actually pulled out of there. So they occupied this improvised landing strip, set up the FARP, and the pilot was eventually pulled out by little birds. So they went in and extracted him. But then on the way out, the C-130 got, as I understand, a wheel stuck in the sand. It like sunk into the dirt and the crew was trying to dig it out. And that resulted in some delays. It took them a while to get off of that far. and the Delta Force element that was standing by as a quick reaction force was actually called in.

46:42They came in and helped blow up the aircraft. I mean, I know one C-130 was blown. Some media reports are saying two C-130s. I also believe at least one helicopter was blown up. I guess they just determined that they could not recover them and get them home for whatever reason. And after that happened, you know, whichever new aircraft, probably helicopters that they flew in the QRF on, they got everybody on those and flew them back home. And they were they were back over the Persian Gulf, probably around 1130 Eastern Standard Time last night. And that was pretty much the end of the operation as far as that's concerned.

47:24But I mean, the airstrikes are still ongoing. So that's the official story, Brandon. First, zoom out. Tell us a little bit about what happened here. What does it say strategically about some of the problems already with the United States? Then, of course, the bravery of the people who also pulled this off. Yeah, well, I'll start with that last part first. I mean, I know that there's a narrative the administration is putting out, and I know there's now a counter-narrative possibly on social media. I'll just say in either event, I think the professionalism of the U.S. military was on full display.

47:58And, you know, these people that we have as an all-volunteer force are extremely competent and they can execute missions under a lot of pressure and, you know, even under some of the most strenuous circumstances. And so with that being said, I think we have to look at the larger picture here and say this was our first taste of real ground combat in Iran. And, you know, we probably got the WIZO and the pilot as, you know, the administration has said. We've gotten them back home, but look at what it cost us in the process. My colleague Larry Johnson, who's a former CIA analyst, has said that's about$400 million worth of taxpayer equipment that was destroyed in the process of this operation.

48:43That is not sustainable, especially if you look at some of the logistical problems we're having already. Not only are we cannibalizing Indo-PACOM stockpiles for interceptors and some of these JASM ERs, which are very long range, extended range, long range strike missiles, but also we're already pulling KC-135 refuelers out from the boneyard, which usually indicates that we really are strapped here for stuff. So the idea that we kind of had to blow up some of our own equipment there, which is the story coming out of the administration, is very disturbing because we can anticipate if there is a larger ground operation planned, as people have been saying, it's going to be even costlier than what we went through.

49:25This is a snapshot. And as for the operation itself, it does seem like there was a lot of resources thrown into recovering to individuals. Now, I know we don't leave our people behind, and we try to, even if they're dead, we try to organize missions to bring their bodies home. That is something that's gone on. The Ranger ethos goes back to the French-Indian War, so we don't leave men behind. I understand that. But the people online who are questioning the official narrative I think are not wrong to, because not only has this administration been very misleading in its official statements about everything in the war, But also it's a lot of resources and a lot of money thrown into one mission set.

50:09Yeah. So basically I read the Reuters inside story of what happened. I read the Wall Street Journal inside story of what happened. And so the narrative is effectively, you know, this one F-15 was down. The pilot was rescued really quickly. The other guy was, you know, it was very difficult to find him. He's able to, he's wounded, but he's able to sort of clamber up the side of this mountain, send off a distress signal. They're able to pinpoint where he is. The CIA also ran some sort of misinformation up to sort of throw the Iranians off of the case. They bring in something like 100 special operators on these C-130s.

50:46The C-130s immediately, both of them, get stuck in the dirt. Now, I saw the pictures. We just saw some of the pictures. I don't know anything. It looks like the ground's pretty hard there, but who knows? These are very large aircraft, very heavy, et cetera. They bring in these Little Bird helicopters on the C-130 transport planes. Those are then used to go and grab this guy, bring him back. But since the C-130s can't get off the ground, they have to destroy the C-130s. Plus, some reports say two, some reports say four of the Little Birds. Bring in other aircraft to then rescue now this roughly 100 men and potentially women who are now stuck behind enemy lines.

51:23Get them all out, et cetera. At the same time, you've got Reaper drones and others who are firing in the surrounding area to keep the Iranians or anyone else away from the area where this rescue is happening. So what are as you listen to that narrative? I agree with you. It's not you know, it seems to me in line with the ethos of the U.S. military that it would not be crazy to expend that amount of resources. But is it actually necessary to expend that amount of resources? Is this the way that a rescue op would normally go? Is this the normal amount of like, I don't know what the proper language is, but is this the sort of stuff that you would bring?

51:59Would you normally bring in 100 men to accomplish this sort of thing? What would be the reason for that? The only thing comparable to this level was actually the failed Carter administration Operation Eagle Claw, which actually was very similar to what occurred in Iran this last weekend, where Carter had a bunch of transport planes, meet Navy elements in the middle of the Iranian desert. and they set up kind of a refueling, temporary refueling station. And the whole thing went pear-shaped from that moment onward, which it was very similar to here. And of course, in that case, though, you had a lot of American hostages at the embassy, so they needed to have an even larger military force that was able to kind of go in and theoretically get them out.

52:47So for two guys, it just seems like a lot of resources were expended. Now, the argument I think would be that the Iranian territory is very well defended and this was very deep inside their territory. So they needed to have enough stuff to punch a hole, land, refuel, and then go out and execute their mission. And under a lot of hostile fire, which we saw those videos coming out of Iran, it looked like something from a battlefield video game where it was just incoming everywhere and very confusing modern combat situation. So I think probably this is not the norm in terms of the amount of resources expended, but this is a pretty extraordinary instance.

53:33And whether it was just a rescue operation or a rescue operation plus something else, the fact of the matter is this is a preview of what to expect if the president really does pull the trigger on putting a larger force on Karg Island or Kashem Island or some other part of Iran. It's going to be a very messy situation. And I think that's what we're trying to underscore here. You know, nobody is saying, nobody is trying to underplay, even if the official story is correct, about how great it is to get a pilot back. But, you know, it doesn't make you a ninny to say, look, that's really great that that happened, but let's zoom out a little bit.

54:09We weren't even supposed to have aircraft being shot down, period. I mean, we had two A-10s go down. Can we go ahead and put, what is it, B-5 up there on the screen? You have two A-10s that go down in the span of 24 hours, apparently as part of this operation. F-15, I mean, that alone is a couple hundred million in aircraft, two combat rescue helicopters, an F-16 has to declare emergency, land safely. A strato tanker declares emergency over Israel, has to land. And Iran also claimed that it had fired another US jet. Now, the last one has not been confirmed. All the rest of them, it's very clear, especially when you combine some of the tanker incidents that brought down those four Americans who died a few weeks ago over Iraq, it is very obvious many of our airmen are in much more harm over Iran than they ever were in the global war on terror, which is a shock to the system and would be only 10 times more if there was any sort of ground invasion.

55:12So I just really would love your perspective on that. Yeah, no, the administration keeps saying that we have total air control, And this experience clearly indicates that that is not the case. The air defense network of Iran may be degraded. I fully admit it is likely degraded because of our attacks over the last, what, month now. But ultimately, it is not destroyed. And I think that any American who has family in the military should be aware that this mission set is not exactly as the Pentagon is claiming. It is not this walk in the park. It's not this spike the football moment. This is a very dangerous and high-tempo operation.

55:51It's straining our people in the military. It's straining the already strained equipment, and it's draining our already finite supplies of critical weapons and material at a time when the whole world seems to be stretching the American military juggernaut. So this is not the rosy scenario that's being depicted in American corporate press. And I think this is very dangerous because I think this also misleads the president, actually. I think the president starts thinking, oh, well, this is a cakewalk. I've got total control. I can then do the next step, which is to put more troops on the ground.

56:27And we'll wrap this up in a few weeks. And that is not going to be the case. All right. So let's talk about the alternate theory. No one is saying this is proven. but we certainly can't take this administration's word for literally anything. We also can't take the Iranian regime's word for literally anything. So it's left to all of us to look at the evidence and ask us if we think that it makes sense and comports with reality. So here is one example of the way this theory is being put together. Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen. So this is from a visiting assistant professor at a Fletcher school.

56:59And he says that he believes this was not just about rescuing this one airman, but that this was actually unrelated to the pilot rescue mission. And the attempt here was to go in and try to grab the nuclear material. So I'll read what he lays down. He says, emerging evidence suggests that U.S. operations south of Isfahan, marked in red on the map, were unrelated to any pilot rescue mission. The downed American pilot was reportedly located in southwest Iran, near these different provinces, whose names I definitely will screw up if I try to pronounce, marked in blue on the map, not central Iran.

57:32Instead, this appears to have been a failed Helleborn insertion aimed at locating uranium within Iran. The recent dismissal of seasoned U.S. generals may not be coincidental, may reflect internal resistance to such high-risk operations. Given Iran's increasingly effective air defense and the apparent failure of this mission, the viability of future Helleborn incursions deep into Iranian territory is now in serious doubt and may need to be abandoned. So the idea here is effectively that, you know, I think it's not in doubt an F-15 went down and there were two individuals on board who had to be rescued.

58:05When they were rescued, how they were rescued, whether this was a rescue plus or whether the guy was already rescued and then they just used that as a cover to try this thing so that they could declare mission accomplished even if it went sideways. I think that is all, all of this is, you know, is pure speculation at this point. But basically what people are looking at is the fact that you had so many resources is devoted to this, that it was really close to Isfahan, which is reportedly where most of the enriched uranium is, that there seems to have been an attempt to set up effectively sort of like a temporary base in this agricultural airstrip, that this attempt apparently failed and, you know, that you had to blow up all of this equipment and then, you know, have others come in and to the rescue, that this is indicative, potentially not of at least just a pilot rescue, but it may have been another mission that ultimately failed.

58:58Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, I wrote for The Daily Caller last week an opinion piece analyzing why I thought if we did do a ground incursion, it would be the Tom Clancy uranium hunt, because that seems to be what President Trump has been fixated on is the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapons breakout. He's been talking about this for years. And, you know, to be fair to him, this is not something new. He's been talking about it since the 2016 campaign when he was opposed to the JCPOA that Obama negotiated. So that would have been the most consistent. And if you were doing the ghost recon uranium hunt in the middle of the desert, the kind of equipment that was brought in and the kind of planes that were brought in and the kind of, you know, outlay of resources, that's all consistent with a uranium hunt.

59:47They needed to set up an airstrip. They did. They needed to be able to hold the territory long enough for heavier equipment to ultimately be brought in. That didn't happen, but it very well may have been the next step if this was just more than a rescue operation. And the fact that it's in Isfahan, or just near Isfahan, that's the real thing that has a lot of very learned people. This isn't just internet conspiracy theorists. This is very learned people who are experts in foreign policy and national security who are suggesting that, hey, there's more to this story because the kind of resources that were brought to bear are not consistent with two people being rescued.

1:00:26Furthermore, the F-15 that was used in question is a two-seater strike eagle. That is a very specific aircraft that is used for certain kind of, at times, suppression of enemy air defense, seed missions. That indicates to me also that there was some kind of escalation in the offing when that airplane was deployed in the first place to go out. And I believe it was deployed near Karg Island. So ultimately, there's some very odd things going on here that do not align with the official narrative. And I think, look, it genuinely could be both. The guy is nearby. It could be. Hey, also, we need to be able to test.

1:01:02Put a landing strip down. Let's put all these people. If this works well, then we could build off of this. Last question. We have a foreign operating base. Right. So that's my last question for you. Are you more – so some people saw, oh, maybe Trump will take this as an off-ramp. Knowing his psychology, especially with Venezuela, they're going to sell this to him as a stunning success. This only makes ground troops more likely to me. Curious for your view. Oh, I think there's – I think we're going in somewhere into Iran. I think now, if anything, you saw that very troubling Easter message from the president.

1:01:32And I was at my church yesterday, and we are – they're all very pro-Trump. But even they were like, why did he say such a thing on Easter of all days? It's, you know, well, I think it's because he was reacting likely to what was really a disastrous. I mean, they pulled it off in terms of getting the pilots back, which, again, that's excellent and good job. But ultimately,$400 million worth of equipment lost. And, you know, the Iranians now have this big propaganda victory, et cetera. I think that Trump now is going to want to double down because he's going to want to basically reassert his control over the situation, which means ground troops are next somewhere.

1:02:10And that, you know, this is a snapshot of of how badly things could go and they will go badly. And then after that, of course, the next escalation is nuclear weapons. And as you know, I'm still very fearful that that is ultimately where this is headed in some fashion. Yeah, absolutely. So you mean to tell me open the fucking straight praise be to Allah. was not the Easter message that churchgoers were expecting from our president. How strange. No, no, no. It was very jarring. I'd actually love to hear the cope on that one, but that's a segment for another time. Thank you, Brandon, for your time.

1:02:46We always appreciate your analysis. Yeah, have a good one.

1:03:05I'm Lori Siegel, and on my new podcast, Mostly Human, I'll take you to some wild corners of the tech world. I'm about to go on a date with an AI companion at a real-world cafe right here in New York City. There's no playbook for what to do when an AI model hallucinates a story about you. Mostly Human is your playbook for how tech can work for you. Anyone can now be an entrepreneur. Anyone can build an app. And it's very empowering. Listen to Mostly Human on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.

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