4/9/26: Oil Executives Panic, Bibi Rejects Ceasefire, Iran Victory Cements Gov Power

24:58And let's put D5 up there on the screen. You guys are going to love this. So AIPAC, in its statement on the ceasefire, it says a historic Israeli campaign. We must end Iran's nuclear program. We must address what remains of Iran's missile and drone program, cut off support for militias. And all of this must be voted on by Congress. Love it. Now, how incredible is it that Lindsey Graham and AIPAC support a war illegally launched unilaterally by the president? But if you try to make peace, well, that, hold on. We got to ratify that by Congress. You can wage war as long as you want. But peace itself, that must be approved by Congress, must have review, and we itself will have the up or down vote as to whether that happens.

25:43I mean, it's a literal backwards of the U.S. Constitution, right? It's not a treaty, as we all learned with the Iran nuclear deal and all that. Trump himself, how many executive deals does he sign? Okay, that's fine with me. Peace? Cool. You can do that unilaterally. But war? No. I mean, the founders were very explicit whenever it came to the power of being able to launch war. So that is America under Israeli or AIPAC and Lindsey Graham's control. The president may launch a war. The peace must be approved by the Congress. Otherwise, you are required. You are obligated. You're forced by the Congress to continue the war indefinitely until we decide that we've had enough.

26:23It really is absolutely incredible. We can just go through a little bit just for our perusal here. There's a Zionist Twitter meltdown happening right now. We can go through a few of these. Griffin pulled a lot. He really went wild on the elements for this section. But let's go and put a few of these up for D6. You see the time has come. Instead of Israel and the U.S. eliminating the regime, the regime is bombing Israel. Dear Trump, what did you do all this for? Eve Barlow, the ceasefire is disappointing. At the end of the day, the people of the West have prioritized their own needs over the liberation of the people of Iran.

26:54Think of how twisted that is. She is saying that we need to keep bombing Iran, that that's really the good thing for the people of Iran. I have a feeling the people in Iran feel a little different about that. This guy says, don't know how I feel about this. Another one says, this makes me sick. Let's do one more page of these Twitter reactions. Dr. Eli David says, WTF, Trump just shared Arachi's post that he accepted the regime's 10-point proposal. As a reminder, here is the 10-point proposal, which, of course, has the new reality in Strait of Hormuz, complete easing of sanctions, et cetera. And one more here.

27:29This, of course, will be seen as weakness by the entire Middle East. Ceasefire is a very bad idea. I don't like it at all. Iran has not conceded anything. So there you go, a little bit of how it's being received on Zionist Twitter. And let's go ahead and take a listen to Mark Levin, who, unfortunately, maybe people don't really listen to him that much in terms of the public. but he is very influential, apparently, in terms of the White House and certainly in terms of sharing the views of the most influential Zionists in the country. So let's take a listen to his reaction. We're not doing regime change.

28:04Everybody says no regime change. Okay. Then the regime survives in one form or another. The fundamentals survive. And so the question is, how do we keep this enemy, this poison, this cancer, these Islamist radicals, 7th century barbarians, how do we keep them in a box? And that's what we have to figure out. If we're not going to completely take them out because of the huge isolationist strain in the Democrat Party, among the woke right, but again, MAGA, the Republicans are behind the president. But if we can't do it because of the political wins, if we can't do it because of other reasons, then how are we going to keep them in a box?

28:48It can't be just peace in our time. We have a 10 point deal and they've agreed to this, this, this. I just think it's going to be very, very complicated, very, very difficult. And I would say this to the president of the United States. I personally know that you will do the right thing, that you're going to try and make sure that it works for now and forever. And so I have complete faith in this man because he's brought us to this point where he's blown out their nuclear systems, where he's taking out or trying to take out all the enrichment, where he is not taking them at their word, where he has used our military in one of the most brilliant, spectacular military campaigns in American history.

29:27I'm glad he's there as president of the United States. There's some very complicated and difficult issues on the table. And I think if anyone can handle it, he can handle it. But this enemy, Make no mistake. They are the enemy. They're not going to go away if there's not regime change. And we're going to have to figure out, and it's not going to be easy, how to keep our foot on their throat. So you see the game he's playing here. He's very unhappy with the deal, still pushing for regime change, but of course has to frame it in like, of course, I trust Trump. And of course, he's brilliant and magnificent.

30:02And the military operation has been the best in history, et cetera. Yeah. Also, by the way, I literally just saw this come across. The Israeli military just issued evacuation warnings for Beirut's southern suburbs. So it's still happening. Interesting, isn't it? Even though, what did JD say? They're going to check itself? He said that they're going to check themselves. So apparently that's what it looks like whenever Operation Eternal Darkness. I'm sure we can rely on them for that. Right. Yeah. Operation Eternal Darkness will check itself. Got a great guest standing by. Let's get to it. Less support through telehealth, but it feels overwhelming and rushed.

30:37Check out orderlymeds.com now. Orderlymeds.com was built to be different. Here, you connect with real doctors who take the time to understand your goals, review your eligibility, and guide you through a plan that's right for you. Orderlymeds provides access to proven GLP-1 medications like somaglutide and terzepatide, including both name brand options and personalized compound versions when appropriate. So you have choices backed by clinical oversight, not guesswork. It's a simpler, more supportive telehealth experience designed around people who want clarity, care, and confidence in their weight loss journey.

31:11And your medication is delivered directly to your home in discreet packaging. So your experience stays private from start to finish. Do your research. Ask the right questions. Then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer. Again, that's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details. Go on, get a little out there, into the big heart of Nevada, where you can go off-road and off the map, on two lakes or on horseback. Dip into hot springs and dive into deserts. Climb a mountain or make your best effort. See thousands of stars in some of the darkest skies.

31:53Stake out haunted hotels. Can you make it to sunrise? There's always something new to see, because we've got plenty of space to just be. Plan your trip at TravelNevada.com. When your schedule sounds like this...

32:11Are you kidding me? An oil change is the last thing you have time for. So drive into Take 5 and let our techs change your oil, check your tires, top off your fluids, and have you back on the road pit stop fast. All while you stay in your car. No putting your entire schedule on hold. No upsells, no problem. So you can get back to your to-do list. Or not. Find your nearest shop at Take5.com. Take 5. The stay in your car 10-minute oil change. For more on the war in Iran, we're joined this morning by Behrouz Gamari. He's a fellow at the Center for Place, Culture, and Politics at the CUNY Graduate Center and also author of the new book, The Long War on Iran, New Events, Old Questions.

32:50Welcome. Great to see you. Thank you so much for having me. Good to see you, sir. Yeah, of course. So a lot of questions for you. But let's just start with, you know, how do you view this war in terms of the sort of long history of the country of Iran, but also specifically with this particular Iranian government. Do you think that it has helped strengthen their position in the state? First, let me thank you for having me here. And this current war is part of a very long project. And as the title of my book suggests, this is a long war on Iran. And we can basically go back to the time of the Iranian Revolution of 1979, that for the better or for worse, the revolution changed the map of the Middle East.

33:38Because before the revolution, Iran's state under the Shah was one of the most important allies of the United States in the region. and some people refer to his reign as the policeman of the Middle East on behalf of the interests of the United States and by extension the interests of Israel. So you can imagine how significant the revolution was in terms of the interests of the U.S. and the allies of Israel in the region. And so this is a war pretty much designed as a project since the time of revolution in Iran. And in one way or another, you know, first the eight-year war with Iraq and crippling sanctions that many people argue that sanctions actually are more brutal than any actual war.

34:36Recently, there was an estimate that in the past 30 years, around 30 million people have died as a result of sanctions around the world, not only in Iran. But, of course, Iran is under one of the most severe sanctions, the crippling sanctions that created a situation between the two countries that, as I very reluctantly predicted in my book, that eventually is going to be resolved by an actual war that just started a month ago. And that's where we find our situation. Sir, what I'm very interested to hear from you and to the extent that you're able to is what life is like in Iran. We hear so many caricatures from the United States.

35:24It's a theocracy. They beat people. They throw gay people off a building. But then I also see videos of people in a coffee shop that looks like it could be out of Brooklyn or New York City. Obviously, maybe both of those things can coexist. We did see, can we put E1 up here, which is, this is some video of people in Iran who were celebrating the ceasefire. Clearly, the regime has some level of control, even in some of the more secular or maybe even secular is the wrong word. Can you describe to us what life is like in Iran and especially how the regime, how people feel about the regime now in the aftermath of this war?

36:05Yeah. Let me start from the last part of your question, that when a war starts, I think one of the most significant events that happens is the collapse of the distinction between the state and the nation. Yes. And this is what we witness today for the most part in Iran. All these people who are celebrating on the streets today are not necessarily supporters of the state, but they are part of a nation that finds itself under brutal attack by Israel and the United States. But also, I think one of the reasons that this war became palatable to many people was that there is this kind of erasure of civil society in Iran, which has been quite vibrant in the past at least 30 years.

36:58and one of the reasons that people say that, okay, the only solution now is an external intervention in Iranian affairs because whatever we did, we could not change society, which is absolutely not true. A lot of things have changed in Iranian society in the past 35 years, especially at the end of Iran-Iraq war in 1988. and there is a vibrant civil society, a very vibrant publishing business. In Tehran alone, 28 daily newspapers come out and many of them are quite critical of the government. And there has always been a very strong women's movement in Iran, student movement, labor associations.

37:49And if you want to compare Iranian society in 2020, 21, 22 to Iranian society of 1990, you see a huge and significant difference between these two societies. And so one of the reasons that we don't hear about this, we always hear that Iran is a totalitarian state and people cannot breathe. people are afraid of voicing their dissent, which is absolutely not true. I'm not saying that, you know, it's not a rosy picture of Iran, but it's a picture that highlights all these efforts and struggles that people have been doing. And sometimes they gain some grounds, sometimes they lose some grounds, people are arrested, people are executed, people are exiled.

38:45But nevertheless, It doesn't mean that we are facing a very stagnant and static society. And I think that's quite an important thing that it's usually erased from the mass media in the West, in Europe and in the U.S. And in my own scholarship, I always try to highlight that. But whenever you highlight that, then it sounds like you're defending. Yeah, like apologia. You just mentioned execution. Right. How does the protest movement fit into that? I'm sure that's going to be the most – people will say, how can that be true if we just had this major protest? No, but I mean the protests always happen in Iran.

39:26It's not a new thing. And every two or three years since the end of Iran-Iraq war, we have a major protest movement in Iran. Sometimes the government is flexible enough to accommodate some of those demands. Sometimes if they feel an existential threat, they respond with brutality and violence and killing. And this most recent protest in December and January, for example, it was, I mean, it started as a protest of economic grievances. And, you know, tens of thousands of people demonstrated. And the government actually was very open in opening a channel with the conversation with protesters. And the president himself met with many of them.

40:17And so long as these protests have demands that are realizable under the existing order, the government shows flexibility and tries to accommodate. But once these protests become a protest for regime change, of course, that suddenly turns into a national security issue and the government reacts very violently. And of course, in the recent protests in January, now there are a lot of reports that are coming out that these protests that were expressed through economic grievances and turned into a regime change demand was also instrumentalized and exploited by the Israelis, by the CIA. Right. And by, you know, President Trump admitted that we sent arms to protesters.

41:09And how much does that? So Trump said at least that we send arms to the Kurds and the Kurds were supposed to give them to the protesters. He says, oh, I think they kept them for themselves. Who knows what of that is true. But we have a lot of indications that there was certainly U.S. and Israeli involvement and that the protests turned quite violent and were met with a violent assault. We don't know the number. They throw numbers 30 ,000, 40 ,000. But that's part of that project. Like, you know, if the numbers are 3 ,000, just add another zero. And then, you know, it justifies external intervention.

41:42But how much does that meddling from the U.S. and Israel, which is sort of omnipresent, how much does that undermine the reform movement within Iran? When people turn to telehealth or weight loss, they're looking for real support. That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com. Orderlymeds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and terzeptatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience, and all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research, ask questions, then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer.

42:14That's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Now medical advice eligibility required. See site for details.

42:23Go on, get a little out there into the big heart of Nevada, where you can go off-road and off the map on two lakes or on horseback. Dip into hot springs and dive into deserts. Climb a mountain or make your best effort. See thousands of stars in some of the darkest skies. Stake out haunted hotels. Can you make it to sunrise? There's always something new to see because we've got plenty of space to just be. Plan your trip at TravelNevada.com. When your schedule sounds like this.

42:59Are you kidding me? An oil change is the last thing you have time for. So drive into Take 5 and let our techs change your oil, check your tires, top off your fluids and have you back on the road pit stop fast. All while you stay in your car. No putting your entire schedule on hold. No upsells, no problem. So you can get back to your to-do list. Or not. Find your nearest shop at Take5.com. Take 5, the stay in your car 10-minute oil change. Oh, I mean, it undermines it greatly. And that's one of the issues that has always been part of the Iranian politics and its relation with American policies.

43:38And if you remember, for example, after 9-11 in 2001, when President Khatami was in office in Iran, And the Iranians, actually the government, decided to change gears and become part of this war on terror, as George W. Bush called it. And, you know, American delegations in Bonn conference in Germany after the collapse of the Taliban, they were very open about it, that without Iranian help, they could not topple the Taliban in Afghanistan. and but then you know right after that we have the access of evil speech at the State of the Union 2002 right and but there you have a reform movement in Iran that is trying to change the context of its relation with the U.S.

44:36and it's met with an access of evil speech in the congress here. So that undermined, I think that's the point in 2002, that the US definitely undermined any possibility of reform in Iran. Because if you say that, okay, we are accommodating, we are bending backward to define a new kind of relationship with you, and you're met with this kind of very hostile rhetoric, and indeed, some of the neocons in the White House and the Congress wrote a memo to George W. and saying that, you know, Iran is supposed to be the target of war on terror. Iran cannot be a part of war on terror. So you have to change gear.

45:27And, you know, Iran should be the target of this new policy, not a collaborator in realizing that. I want to ask you about the new system in Iran. So my analysis that I'd gleaned from Trita Parsi and others was that while the Ayatollah, the old Ayatollah, was cast in the U.S. as this evil madman, is that he really was kind of a doddering older gentleman who was actually incredibly risk-averse, who didn't either want to go all in or also didn't want – both didn't want to go to war but also didn't want to appear weak and probably put them on the path to – where things are today by not making a real decision.

46:10Now, his son is the new Ayatollah. We have E2. We can put it up there on the screen. And some of the reporting from the White House right now is that he actually reached a truce with Trump and instructed the foreign minister, the president, and the speaker to pursue some sort of deal with Donald Trump. What do we know about the new Ayatollah? I've tried to read it. There's not a whole lot about him. And generally, the new system that will be in power after this war, if it is indeed a real ceasefire. Yeah, I mean, we really don't know much about him. And I read all these reports about him that the assumption is that he's more hawkish, he's close to the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guards.

46:53But, you know, there are many people who were very close to the Revolutionary Guards, and it turned out that they were actually very liberal-minded and reform-oriented. And the very fact that he was close to the Revolutionary Guards, I don't think, says that he's more hawkish or more militant. And so we really don't know much. He's not written much. He doesn't have a high kind of religious credibility. He's not an ayatollah. And so it's a sort of a wild guess that what he would do after this. And people around him, now that most of the old guards of the Revolutionary Guards are assassinated, the new younger generation, I mean, the old guard, they were all veterans of the Iran-Iraq war.

47:44And they learned about strategy of war in the fields. And they were very sort of well-trained in the field kind of revolutionary commanders. But the new generation has a different kind of experience. They're mostly veterans of war in Syria and in Iraq of post-2003. And they have a different kind of understanding of warfighting. So they're used to more asymmetric warfare because they fought the United States. Definitely, yes. That's exactly the point, that the old guard was a symmetrical, I mean, very conventional kind of warfare. which was Iran-Iraq war was the longest conventional warfare of 20th century for eight years with half a million people killed.

48:35But these are a new generation of people who are basically coming out of that kind of asymmetrical warfare and very well-versed, so to speak, of designing and strategizing in that kind of war. And also very different kind of political framing of war. And so how they would behave, how do they rethink their position that they're now in the position of decision making in the revolutionary cars is yet to be seen. And I don't think we should rush to sort of a judgment that they're more militant or more radical. Regardless of sort of who is in charge and who has the most sway, though, hasn't the argument of the hardline position been strengthened by what we've seen here?

49:21For the reformers, they did the deal with Obama. Obviously, Trump rips it up, backs out of that deal. Biden, even though he's a Democrat, doesn't choose to get back in. Trump uses the pretext of diplomacy as ruse to start a new war. And now what it looks like is that Iran has been able to achieve much more in terms of their own security and their own wealth through this war, through violent means and taking a harder stance than they were through the reformist posture. So do you think that logic will be ascendant within the country? Yes, yes, absolutely. And I mean, again, that started from access of evil speech, because the supreme leader, the old supreme leader, older Khamenei, always said that, you know, we should not trust Americans.

50:07And whenever you try to do reform, they would stab you in the back. And everybody said that, you know, he's paranoid, he's crazy, and this and that. But after 20 years of being stabbed in the back by the U.S., his words had gained a lot of credibility. And with negotiating in the middle of negotiation, 12-day war in June, in the middle of negotiation, this current attack, which according to the Omanis, the British, they were very, very close to an agreement in Geneva. And in 48 hours, instead of finalizing the agreement, the supreme leader is assassinated. So I think in general, people are becoming more and more skeptical of the honesty and sincerity of the U.S.

51:07in these negotiations and U.S. policies towards Iran. And I see that now in the past few weeks also that more and more people are joining forces to people who were in the public squares in the middle of the night on bridges and so on and so forth to sort of say that they see now that kind of mistrust of American policy, which led to undermining any kind of reform-minded political trend in Iran and give more legitimacy and credibility to a more militant and radical politics that comes out from the U.S. And, you know, I always told, I've had many conversations with people in the policy circles that the U.S.

51:59policies towards Iran, when the stated objective is to help democratizing Iran, actually constantly helps radicalizing the Islamic State, Islamic Republic. I shouldn't say Islamic State. Islamic Republic. And this is such a fascinating thing that although all the people who come up with these policies in the U.S. government see the results of their policies, but nevertheless, they continue to perpetuate those policies, which really produces results exactly opposite of their stated objectives. Unless the stated objectives is to radicalize, that's a different kind of warms there. Yeah. This might be a provocative question.

52:51How radical is Iran? So we're told that they're theocratic, that they want to kill us, Al-Qaeda, Islamic State that basically analogize them. At the same time, you have an Ayatollah who was a Shia cleric who extremely cautious, in my estimation, we bomb their nuclear sites. The only token attack back even here, the religious cleric who's supposedly radical instructs his foreign minister to pursue a ceasefire deal. It seems highly rational. I mean, I'm curious. Are they radical? And radical in what sense, whenever we use that word? I think it is true that they see themselves as an anti-imperialist force.

53:31But that's nationalistic. But that's totally nationalistic. Henry Pracht, who was the director of Iran desk at the State Department in 1980s, always used to say, and he wrote this piece in the Foreign Affairs, that Iran is mostly concerned with security and independence domestically rather than dominion abroad. And the dominion abroad is a posture, it's a defensive posture for them. And because they know that the US and US allies and Israel are determined to overthrow this regime. And it's true. I mean, it's not paranoia. It's not - No, it's literally true. It's literally true. There's this little book about the Supreme Leader that came out a few years back and said the Iranian Supreme Leader was so paranoid because he thought that the U.S.

54:27wants to overthrow him. But, you know, look. It's very rational. They killed him. We don't call that paranoia. We call them political realism, you know. But they also, as you said, they also always followed very pragmatic policies because their number one concern is to maintain their sovereignty and their national interest. And if you look at their policies in the region, for example, in the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia, that Azerbaijan is a Muslim country, Armenia a Christian country, Iran always took the side of Armenia. That's a good point. I didn't think about that. I mean, even in disputes between Pakistan and India, for the most part, Iran always took the side of India.

55:22Because they buy all the oil, right? Buy all the oil. It's truly a very rational, pragmatic understanding of foreign affairs. And they are not driven by that kind of radical ideology. Because whenever people say that they're motivated by ideology, it means that they're irrational. And they turn the entire Islamic Republic into a suicide bomber. You know, like that they don't care about their own well-being because they're motivated and moved by their ideology and they disregard any kind of tangible gains for their own country, for their own people, and so on and so forth. So in that sense, I think they are very pragmatic and they've shown, I mean, it's not a kind of a statement or analytical statement, but this is a sort of a historical fact that in the past 30 years, they always followed a very pragmatic policy in the region.

56:24And all these things about Iran's allies in Hezbollah or in Iraq or in Yemen, these are always understood in Iranian context from their standpoint as defensive postures. And I remember when Hillary Clinton was the Secretary of State and they were talking about overthrowing Bashar Assad in Syria. And she made this comment in Istanbul. She was in Istanbul. She said that we're going to clip the wings of the Islamic Republic, you know. So for them, when When they hear this, they completely understand. And today it has become quite clear when they were saying that, you know, we are fighting in the streets of Damascus and southern Lebanon and in Palestine, we are doing that so we won't be ending up fighting in the streets of Tehran.

57:21Now that statement has gained a lot of credibility because with the weakening of those allies in other parts of the region, now they're fighting in Tehran. I'm not saying that it was really good news for the people in Syria that Iran is there, or maybe it was for some, it wasn't for some others. But that was the rationale. It wasn't coming out of a blind ideological commitment. It was coming out of a very calculated, rational, pragmatic politics that they were fighting in Syria or in Lebanon. Meanwhile, we've got a secretary of war who's got a Crusaders cross tattooed on. I'm constantly talking about how God is protecting our bombing campaign.

58:05So I'm not sure we're in a position to lecture on theocracy at this particular point in time. Bayer Skamari, thank you so much. Great to have you here now. Thank you so much for having me. Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it. We've got John Mearsheimer on the Friday show tomorrow. Don't want to miss that. See you then. Are you trying to get weight loss support through telehealth, but it feels overwhelming and rushed? Check out orderlymeds.com now. Now, orderlymeds.com was built to be different. Here, you connect with real doctors who take the time to understand your goals, review your eligibility, and guide you through a plan that's right for you.

58:39Orderly Meds provides access to proven GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and terzepatide, including both name brand options and personalized compound versions when appropriate. So you have choices backed by clinical oversight, not guesswork. It's a simpler, more supportive telehealth experience designed around people who want clarity, care, and confidence in their weight loss journey. And your medication is delivered directly to your home in discreet packaging. So your experience stays private from start to finish. Do your research. Ask the right questions. Then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer.

59:13Again, that's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details. Go on. Get a little out there. into the big heart of Nevada, where you can go off-road and off the map, on two lakes or on horseback. Dip into hot springs and dive into deserts. Climb a mountain or make your best effort. See thousands of stars in some of the darkest skies. Stake out haunted hotels. Can you make it to sunrise? There's always something new to see because we've got plenty of space to just be. Plan your trip at TravelNevada.com. There's no denying it.

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