5/18/26: Iran War On Verge Of Resuming, Trump Attacks Voters On The Economy

23:46In terms of what's breaking right now, I saw a little bit of news. Tasmin had reported that maybe the U.S. would waive oil sanctions as we continue to go forward with some sort of potential negotiation. Just always keep in mind, like these people are always fading and bluffing. And Trump has said probably every week of the war that the war will be over in just a few weeks. There also have been multiple instances where he's used diplomacy as a cover. And there's also been multiple instances where it looked like the war was about to restart. Like, remember the infamous, you know, we will wipe out their civilization before he eventually blanks.

24:21So we don't know what is going to happen. It is noteworthy at the very least to me that they are saying right now they expect the war to continue in the next 48 hours, even though there's some, you know, oh, the U.S. has floated this viewing sanctions, temporary lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil, which they actually did beforehand as well. So they could go back in some sort of a reversal as well. I really don't know. Well, and it's also Monday morning, which means Trump may be itching to manipulate the markets. We've got right now, you know, stock futures are down. Oil is up. The U.S. bond rates have been going up as well, which is certainly something that he pays a lot of attention to.

24:59So don't be surprised if you get some new Axios report or whatever. Well, they're close to a deal. I did just see a report on Harats that Iran submitted some response to the U.S. proposal. But we just showed you how far apart they are. So even if the Iranians are continuing to submit their responses, it hasn't changed from their position of we have won and we plan to consolidate our gains on the battlefield in terms of whatever this negotiation is. And it just doesn't seem like we're anywhere close to actually coming to terms on a deal. Yeah, well said. All right, let's move over to econ. Apple Vacations, where your story starts.

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27:20Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. Let's turn over now to the economy. And here you have Trump being confronted with his infamous, I don't think about Americans, financial stability at all. And Trump says it's a perfect statement and he would make it again.

27:48Let's take a listen. You can imagine Democrats and political pundits jumped all over this statement that you made the other day. You were asked when you were leaving. What extent are American financial destinations motivating you to make a deal? Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters that I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about American financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing. You cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all. That's right. That's a perfect statement. I'd make it again. You can imagine how many people stop the soundbite at, I don't think, about America's financial situation.

28:29So what's your response to that frame? It's very simple. When people hear me say it, everybody agrees. Short-term pain. It's going to be short-term pain. But the pain is much less than people thought. It's much less than people thought. I'm sure that's very comforting at the pump whenever you're paying$3, or sorry,$4.50 a gallon. You also have this, Trump being confronted with a three-time of his voter saying that he's struggling financially. Trump says, I'm disappointed in the voter. Let's take a listen. When you hear Trump voters, Alex says, I voted for you three times. He just he can't handle the costs.

29:08And he's not for this foreign conflict. I hate it. He's not for the foreign conflict. But Roy in Pennsylvania, he's a retired farmer. He can't handle the fuel going up. And he's just he says he's disappointed very fast. And so look, disappointed. I'm just talking to him. Roy, Alex, we got a problem. We just hit the highest stock market price ever, by the way, then when I went in. Now, again, with the war, it's higher than it was when I went in. Think of that. I agree. The 401ks at their all-time high. There are more people working right now in the United States of America than at any point ever in the history of our country.

29:49A.K.A. the Dow just hit 50 ,000. Quit your bitching, Roy and Alex. Incredible. So look, is it technically true? Yeah, it definitely is. So one year, literally a year, it's been a rip-roaring year for the S &P. It's up by 25%. Now, what percent of people even have a 401k? Only about 50 or 60, actually. If you're a farmer, you're self-employed, unlikely to be. I was about to say, so if you are a self-employed farmer, the likelihood, statistically, that you are being responsible and saving for retirement, I wouldn't say zero, but it's pretty low. And if you are a contract worker and some of the younger, ironically, actually, because this was the first election, if I recall, where there was like a flippening, right, where people making over$100 ,000 a year voted for Kamala and people under$100 ,000 voted for Trump.

30:35Well, people who are making over 100 are vastly more likely not only to own stocks but to have 401ks or traditional W-2 style job with matching percent. While people making under 100 are much more likely to be either in the self-employed category or somebody who's like picking up a gig worker or ships, waiters, etc. The least likely demographic to actually have a 401k and have any exposure to the stock market. For them, they don't care about the stock market. So half of the nation of U.S. workers don't even have a 401k and probably don't own any stock at all. And so when you tell them that the stock market is higher, they're like, yeah, we know because it's being built off the backs of our labor, right?

31:20And so it's not really the point I think that Trump wants to make. And, I mean, every single president falls victim to the Dow trap. I remember Obama saying it in 12. Biden said it his whole presidency. And it's like, how can you have lived through the 2020 to 2024 elections where, yes, the market was up dramatically and you had a record number of people say this economy is not working? Like, when are people going to learn? I just don't get it. Yeah. Also, he says this thing, oh, it's going to be short term pain for long term gain. And how far are we? How long has this war been going on for a while now?

31:57And if you're someone, if you're a farmer, for example, and you've got to pay for fertilizer and you've got to pay for diesel and you've got all these costs that are massive at the critical time in your year, the short term has become very significant for you. So, you know, I think the time horizon for a billionaire who can wait out, you know, some sort of economic crash and then swoop in and buy up distressed assets and profit off of it over on the on the back end, which is what all these people do. Very different from an ordinary person, certainly a farmer, again, who's in planting season and trying to make this whole thing work.

32:36Very different time horizons. So for people who are struggling and were already struggling, by the way, because Trump's economy has sucked because of his own decision making. This has been already a long term. This does not feel like short term pain. And there's no end in sight. So the whole framing of this is I don't think it's going to land, let's just say. Let me go ahead and play for you another disappointed Trump voter who called into C-SPAN and explained, you know, explained his whole thought process and how he feels like a fool for having bought into the rhetoric to begin with. This is fairly powerful.

33:12Let's take a listen to B5. Hard for me to say this, but I think if I can open up about it in public that it might help others. I wanted to believe Trump was the real deal for a long time, even though I had doubts because I knew enough about his business history to think otherwise. But now I regret my support for him and I should have known better. he's making it plain as day he's a con man a liar doesn't keep his promises he's in office all for himself and he doesn't even try to hide his corruption anymore so unless you get all your information from what I call the right wing propaganda for profit disinformation media industrial complex he's the worst president we've ever had and he's the most corrupt president we've ever had.

34:07I know it's hard. It took me a while to be able to say that. Very difficult when you commit yourself to believing in somebody. I don't think it's one thing. It's been a cumulative process and it's gotten so blatant now and he's just literally the things he's, you know, he's going to lower prices on day one. He was going to do this on day one. Only he could fix all this stuff. and uh now i understand how somebody like adolf hitler was able to brainwash millions of people i never thought i'd see that again in my lifetime but but it's happened right i thought we got past that but we don't learn from history but um i just hope uh the best we got to slow him down make him accountable any way we can right now the only weapon is to vote for as many democrats whether you like them or not.

34:58Just get some balance back into our system of checks and balances. And he did say at another point during that, that he was a three-time Trump voter. Like, this is someone who voted for Trump every single time. Now, it seems like he had some questions going into it. He wasn't 100 % sure, but he wanted to believe in Trump. He wanted to believe in the promises. And now he's like, he's making some pretty impressive comparisons there. I just love the median American voter who can vote for Trump three times and then say he compares him to Adolf Hitler. And you got to work for the vice president. The vice president went the other direction.

35:32OK, there you go. You know, not to shame or anything, but it is one of those things where some of these people I mean, we talked about IVF now, for example. Right. Remember, there's hundreds of thousands of people. Statistically, 100 ,000 people at the very minimum who voted for Trump because of IVF. Yeah, it's like, dude, what were you doing? Like, come on. There are to me, there's a difference between broken promises, which had a realistic chance of actually happening. And then people who fall straight up for campaign rhetoric. I would put the Iran category in the most extreme in terms of the opposite of what they ran on.

36:10I probably, you know, the single biggest reversal genuinely of everything, because it's really it's not just about Trump. It's actually about all of the people who work for him, many of whom were even on this show. Stephen Miller. No. Kamala will send your sons and daughters to die in Iran. It was unambiguous. And now he's not only he's one of the biggest cheerleaders. I know. Internally, he's he's pushing this thing. One of the biggest hawks. So, no, I mean, the guy now is a total con man. It's like obvious to see if you open your eyes. There was an element of Trump's, his like, you know, the con man behavior and all of that where the honesty about his unscrupulousness was very attractive.

36:49I think for a lot of his original supporters, like remember when they would call him out, like Jeb would call him out and be like, you donated to Hillary. And he's like, I donated to you too. I donate to all of you because you're all corrupt. Like there's something about that, that people were like, wow, you got this straight talker, like somebody who calls it like it is. and that was like a shock to the system because it was. It actually exposed like a lot of their bipartisan corruption. But I think this time around, the sole focus of the campaign was this never would have happened if I were president.

37:19And I actually think it's an extremely compelling argument. He was like, look, the Ukraine war and the Gaza war never would have happened if I were president. Obviously, it's not really true, like in a sense, but it's very attractive. And the sole focus of the campaign was I'm going to focus on inflation and we're not going to have any of these stupid foreign conflicts because I'm in power and I have better judgment. And that was another big contrast, I think, of the 24 campaign was you had the eggheads like the Jake Sullivans and supposedly these great neoliberal thinkers who were supposed to restore a sense of normalcy to our country.

37:53And they didn't. It was a total failure. Like we should not obfuscate their failure of leadership of this country from COVID all the way through of the international situation, etc. And so that actually made it the reason why people were willing to go with a Trump and RFK Jr., a Kash Patel, any of these people was it was a complete shock to the system. They're like, look, we do need to have some sort of like revolutionary destruction, I think, of these institutions, which, again, I think is very attractive. Remember Doge? How many guys were like obsessed with Doge? It was a cultural phenomenon you can't deny.

38:27I think, though, what became clear was very soon is that the revolutionary destruction, and I've talked with Richard Hanenia about this because this is his theory of populism. He believes all populism eventually denigrates to kakistocracy, which is basically like stealing. And that's really what became clear. Kakistocracy is like rule by the dumbest. Right, rule by the dumbest, and it also is—no, sorry, I'm getting confused also with plutocracy. With kleptocracy. And kleptocracy. You put all this together. We can pick any of them with these people, yeah. The point is really just that in the beginnings, I would say that in the first 35 days or so, you were like, wow, you have a sheer amount of incompetence, of stupidity, of pillaging, of this being done at Elon's own behest.

39:05And people were like, OK, I can get over that as long as we're going to get to this. And then that one fails and then the next one fails. And the level of incompetence and then the sole focus on Trump himself on either selling pardons out of the Oval or total allegiance, which we're going to get to with Thomas Massey. it becomes clearer by the day that it's only just about Trump and has nothing to do with any of the milieu which he even ran on, right? Like Maha is willing to debase themselves with glyphosate and they just have to sit there and eat a bowl of shit and go against a lot of the things that they run.

39:39Many of the anti-war people who I knew personally in the administration are now shilling for the war. You're like, I mean, my God. But as they put it, they're like, well, what are we supposed to do? There's, well, he's the president. Like he made this. And you're like, yeah, I mean, that's technically true. Only Joe Kent had the courage to say, I'm out. Like I can't do this anymore. But I think that on so many different fronts, you have watched, you know, issues where even many of us agreed. It was a total, complete, incompetent shit show, turned the whole country against immigration is probably the prime example.

40:13And then you also had tariffs, actually another one. I don't think Americans will support tariffs for like 50 years after this. There's going to be an inflation scarring as a result of tariffs, which, by the way, I think is a disaster because I think we need tariffs. But instead, everyone's going to be against tariffs. Everyone's going to be for basically unlimited immigration for the next 10 years at the very minimum. And there's a lot of issues like that, which he poisoned the well on. And then on war especially, like going against that and getting our country into this quagmire, I think he put all that stuff together.

40:42And it breaks. It really breaks a lot of people. And I've seen it. I've seen it with a lot of voters and all those people who are really enthused and excited to vote for Trump. I mean, it just becomes at a certain point undeniable. I think the Epstein thing is important, too. I totally agree. Because it was such, you know, he was always a little reluctant. But again, to your point about the people around him, including you put Kash Patel in charge. I mean, he was, he, part of his whole identity was that he was going to reveal all of the wrongdoers, blah, blah, blah. and all this mythology around Trump and all the QAnon bullshit about how he was going to be the one that came up, rounded up the pedophile cabal and all the wrongdoers would be brought to justice, blah, blah, blah.

41:19And then it's like, yeah, we're going to do a massive cover up of this actually, because my name is all over the Epstein files, personally my name. And I'm going to call Marjorie Taylor Greene and tell her that she needs to not do anything to help in revealing any of this information because, quote, my friends will be hurt. I think that was a bit of an eye opening moment for people who are paying attention to.

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43:31We'll see you next time. assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. To get back to where we are economically, some extraordinary comments made here from Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, who you described, you know, the Republican Congress is just slaves to Trump. He is the chief slave to Trump and just goes along with literally whatever he wants. That's how he sees his entire job. And so he's tried to sell this idea that like, oh, we're going to get back to the kitchen table issues as soon as we deal with that straight-of-hormuz issue.

44:07Well, when is that going to be dealt with? What is your plan to deal with that? You mean the straight-of-hormuz issue that you guys yourselves caused by starting this war that you are complicit in, Mike Johnson, because you guys in Congress want nothing to do with stopping this or having any say or control or power over putting our nation and our troops at risk? Let's go ahead and play B3. CBS News had some polling out this morning showing 76 % of people are concerned. 67 say they are stressed about their own personal financial situation. You know that generally the incumbent is punished in the midterms and people are feeling very uncertain about how they're doing personally.

44:42How do you campaign against that? Well, this relates to the last segment. We were talking about the Strait of Hormuz. Really all points lead back to that. Gas prices are too high because of that. And then that has an effect on how goods are transported to the grocery store and all the rest. So as soon as we get that straightened out, we will get back to the kitchen table issues, the economic issues that we put in place to make the economy grow. The working families tax cut, the big, beautiful bill, all the legislation we passed put in pro growth policies that will lead to bigger paychecks. We already had the largest tax refunds we've had in a long, long time because of our policies.

45:13And so we're really excited, anxious for that to be resolved so that people will feel that. And I think they will before they go vote in the midterm. So as soon as we get this straight out of our ministry now, we will get back to the kitchen table issues. But to your point, Sagar, what does that even mean? I don't even know. Because they already did their one big, beautiful bill. I don't think people are feeling like that was all it was cracked up to be. A bunch of rich people got tax cuts that I'm sure they're happy about. Oh, don't forget boomers. Don't forget. And boomers, yeah. But even the boomers are stressed about the gas prices and not happy with how this is going.

45:44But we haven't heard a single additional like, this is what we'll do if we keep control of Congress. There is no real positive, affirmative messaging here whatsoever. Give money to Israel. If you want to give more money to Israel and extend more tax cuts for boomers, and what else? I don't know, the Save America Act. Like, okay, sure, fine, great. And protect a bunch of criminal oligarchs from having to come and testify before Congress about their crimes. That's the other part of the pitch. It's basically going to be a negative polarization pitch. One of the main reasons why a lot of Democrats or a lot of Republicans are not going to come out to vote is they're going to be like, what did you give me in two years?

46:19Like, seriously, what did you give me? And I don't think – think about it. The timing of November couldn't be worse because of all of the retail hits that's going to happen, the ripple through the economy all the way to November, which is inevitable. It's baked in at this point on top of a miserable summer of cost. Like even if the war ended now, gas is not going below$3.50 a gallon, period, at least for, I don't know, maybe a year, honestly. I mean, J.P. Morgan and others said that the base case is that oil remains over$100 a barrel for at least another year in the markets just because of what's happened.

46:55I haven't talked about natural gas. We have this latest news about AutoZone. Can we put B4 up here? These are those little things like with COVID, which you just never forget. And this is from an internal AutoZone memo where they say, we are facing the largest supply shortage of lubricating fluids in modern history of America. Realistic middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category to drop by 40%. So I'm assuming that this is like motor oil and changing – I have an electric vehicle, so it's not really something I've thought about in a long time. But, I mean, I am generally aware people need their oil changed.

47:38And when they do, there's always that one guy who changes it himself and is very, very proud of it. And I feel like that guy in particular is going to be the most hit because they go to go and buy it themselves and change it at home. But then also the dealers, you know, the service cost is probably— Yeah, you're going to show up at Jiffy Loop and be like, what the hell? Why does this cost so much? And I think that's where the stickers—or you may just not have any, right? Like that's the real nightmare scenario is that they're like, hey, sorry, you know, we're rationing oil change. And so everyone will start stretching it for, you know, fast further when they're supposed to.

48:14And then you have more breakdowns, more car maintenance, more problems. And already I was reading about car costs. A lot of people bought cars during the pandemic period. Remember when they were very, very high, the price. And so they're instantly upside down on their loans because the market has normalized. And so a record number of people are actually upside down on their car loan right now. And so when you add in increased cost of maintenance, you can't even get rid of the damn thing without paying. It's really bad. B6, can we put that up there? Grocery prices in the U.S. surged more aggressively in April than any prior month in the nearly five years, Which makes it so that grocery prices, that would mean, that have had a cumulative level of inflation of, I mean, it's got to be over 20 % in just the last five years.

49:04And that's where, again, you just start to see people radically shift their consumption habits at that point. You stop buying beef. You stop buying luxury products. You will go to Costco. I think we've seen a flip, I think, in the amount of chicken consumed versus beef for stable protein. more people buying name brand goods, or sorry, store branded goods as opposed to name brand goods. We've seen a reduction in McDonald's. Remember, I think you guys, what was the segment you did about the Hines? No, it was Hines. Yeah, they're seeing, they're seeing, they said just like, people don't have money.

49:41That was the quote from that CEO. And then Costco said, we've already seen the shift from beef to chicken. Now we're seeing the shift to like canned tuna, canned chicken. So those signs are rippling throughout the economy. But don't worry, the stock market is really high. I mean, it is high. It's great. If you've got money in the stock market, I can read a chart and I know that the vast majority of people, especially at the struggling end of the spectrum, are not going to have any benefit from it. Tucker had a good point where he's like, look, once gas goes to$7 a gallon, that means that you are affected by that even when you make like half a million dollars a year.

50:19Because at that point, look, it's not that you can't afford the gas price. It's just that that means that the level of input inflation from air travel to grocery price and all that becomes so high that even the richest 1 % of W-2 earners will be hit. He's like, if you don't make less than a million dollars a year, if you make less than a million dollars a year, you will feel it. And I think that's true. Think about it. So a public transit in this country is complete shit outside of New York City. Every other place, you're basically like completely car reliant. The minimum wage in this country is still federally$7.25.

50:51If a gallon of gas is$7, like you're working an entire hour to afford one gallon of gas. The math does not math. That's already the case for a lot of people. And so, you know, I don't think it penetrates here in D.C. It certainly doesn't penetrate for Trump, who's completely encircled by a bunch of, you know, and who he's thinking about, whether he's here in D.C. or even more to the point, all the time that he spends down in Mar-a-Lago. That's who he's surrounded by. He has no awareness or understanding of the way this has already hurt people, but it is throwing up in the polls big time. We're going to do probably some dive into some of the polling tomorrow.

51:33I just thought there was a New York Times poll out as well. I mean, the numbers on how people feel about inflation, whether their wages are keeping up with inflation, they are extremely dire. And as much as people hate the Iran war, they have even lower ratings for Trump on his handling of the economy, which has always been one of his key strengths. It's the biggest reason I think he ended up back in the White House because people thought, oh, well, in the first term, I was doing better. He's a businessman. He'll make these deals. He's going to deliver for the American people. I really think that was it more than anything else.

52:05I totally agree. And obviously that has been a complete failure in all of his own making. Gas was a big selling point for his. You know, last thing for sure. Gas was a big remember all. I remember reading all these testimonies because we were election night. We were like, wow, like, look at this South Texas swing. Yeah. And I was like, what is going on here? Like, what happened? Because it's not that people in South Texas, you know, you don't do a 40 point swing from nowhere. Some a lot of it was cultural, definitely on immigration. But then I would read and be like, well, gas was a buck 90 when Trump was president.

52:33And I was like, well, you know, it was a pandemic, too. But OK. But I would – enough times that I read either some version of I got a stimulus check which had Trump's name on it or gas prices were low that I was like, I guess it's a thing. People really think it was Trump that made gas prices so low. So you don't discount that. And Trump once upon a time was not Mr. oh, I don't think about America's financial situation. He was – I mean he was obsessed with gas prices by all accounts in the first term of his presidency. And the second time, it's like they just they literally don't care anymore.

53:09They're just telling you to sit there and take it. One more element here. Put B7 up on the screen because these are things that could be coming to your neighborhood. Tipping point looms for global energy crisis. This is from the Financial Times. And they write that nearly 80 countries have already introduced emergency measures to protect their economies as the world approaches a new, more dangerous phase in the energy crisis driven by the Iran war. So because we're a wealthy country, we are a little bit protected. We see the gas pump. We see the grocery prices increasing and that being tied to the Iran war.

53:43But we really haven't felt the full brunt here. And we will never feel the full brunt in the way that poor countries do. I mean, they're talking about potentially 45 million more people being pushed into famine, effectively, because of the shipping crisis and the way this ripples throughout the entire economy. So for a lot of places around the globe, this will be utterly devastating. in a way that we will be somewhat protected from. But, you know, these are the types of things that will be headed our way in terms of analysts are saying, oh, we're unlikely to have shortages here. But, you know, analysts also didn't anticipate all of the impacts of the COVID slash Ukraine supply shocks.

54:21So things could get extremely, extremely bumpy. And I think it's, you know, should be a real eye opener that Trump's talking about short term pain that you already have 80 countries around the world that have had to institute emergency economic measures to deal with this. And some of them, like India is one of them. India is coming in saying, hey, we've got to preserve our currency. So don't take foreign trips. Don't purchase precious metals because we need to keep our store of them, et cetera. So there's already in countries globally a huge recognition of what this already means for them and what it's going to mean for them in the future.

54:57Prime Minister Modi gave a speech last week, asking locals to stop buying gold to shore up his FX defenses. He didn't go so far as to tell them to stop traveling abroad. But remember, Air India has canceled a significant amount of flights. And I mean, look, for those of you who are not aware, gold is like the lifeblood of Indian society. It kind of always has been. It is literally a gold crazed society. So for the prime minister to be like, hey, everybody, please stop buying gold, that's a big deal. Yeah. Especially cultural, like wedding gifts. They're obsessed with gold. Yeah. I mean, the amount of gold that my relatives, I'm like, I don't need all this fucking gold.

55:35But apparently it's a - No, maybe it was a good thing. I mean, I guess. It's like a safety deposit box. You're like, okay. But yeah, I mean, these people are obsessed with gold. Just absolutely obsessed. So for their prime minister to come out and say, oh, well, you shouldn't buy gold anymore. That's honestly pretty shocking for them. He also added other things, telling them about some of the problems that they may face and cooking gas and others. I mean, this is the world's most populous country, so it's definitely something you have to pay attention to. And they may seriously face problems as things continue with their gas prices and everything, where they're trying to keep them at a lower level.

56:14But it is inevitable, you know, if this continues, that they may have to increase that amount, even with the massive amount of government subsidy and Russia and all that oil that continues to come in. So, yeah, that's just there. And then Africa, I saw they're already warning about famine as of this year, the World Food Program and their ability to buy new goods. So there you go.

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