In short
The episode is a Breaking Points Friday roundup mixing foreign policy, U.S. politics, and economics. Topic 1: Iran/Israel missile defense. Guests discuss a Washington Post claim that the U.S. expended far more advanced interceptors than Israel did, amid Iran hostilities. They connect this to earlier reporting that Israel was down to “double-digit” ballistic missile interceptors, making U.S. depletion more likely. Key claims include: the U.S. fires many interceptors per incoming ballistic missile; replenishing interceptors takes years while Iran can produce missiles faster; and Trump’s “military options” are constrained because Iran can escalate by targeting Gulf infrastructure (including undersea internet cables, desalination plants, and Red Sea disruption). Notable example: the Pentagon/defense budget graph is used to argue defense spending is structurally upward.
Topic 2
DNC “autopsy.” They call Politico’s DNC 2024 autopsy “AI-generated slop,” claiming it omits major issues (e.g., Gaza/genocide, inflation, Biden’s age) and contains factual errors and “red box” disclaimers.
Topic 3
John Fetterman “Israel handler.” They discuss a New York Mag story about David Safir, described as a little-known writer/fundraiser who became a close confidant, allegedly meeting Netanyahu, joining Israel trips, and advising unofficially while Fetterman’s staff reportedly churns.
Topic 4
Hunter Biden/Candace Owens and a Fox News-related “conspiracy” tease.
Topic 5
Fed independence. Rohit Chopra (incoming California business/consumer secretary) joins to analyze the swearing-in of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair and whether Fed independence is truly from Wall Street or politics.
Guests/hosts
Ryan, Emily, Crystal (hosted by Sagar and Crystal earlier in the intro), plus Rohit Chopra.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOUS Military Support for Israel
2:54 to 4:25
Discussion on US missile defense expenditure supporting Israel amidst conflict.
“Welcome to the Breaking Points Friday edition.”
Missile Technology and Asymmetry
4:26 to 7:27
Exploration of the missile technology gap between the US and Iran.
“bears the brunt of Israel's missile defense.”
Implications of a Potential Taiwan Conflict
7:28 to 10:11
Analysis of how a conflict in Taiwan could impact the US economy and defense.
“Yeah, I mean, anybody there thinking this through?”
Strategic Dilemmas Facing the US
10:12 to 14:00
Discussing the strategic options available to the US regarding Iran and military action.
“reliant on this one particular company based in Taiwan.”
Trump's Strategy and the Iranian Regime
14:00 to 14:40
Discussing Trump's approach to the Iranian regime and its potential implications.
“But I think he is hoping that the government will be, the regime will finally face a real threat.”
Pentagon Budget Insights
14:40 to 15:11
Analyzing the Pentagon's budget trends and their historical context.
“And I just wanted to put up this chart of Pentagon.”
Trump's Political Prospects and Israeli Popularity
15:11 to 15:39
Examining Trump's potential political moves in Israel and his popularity there.
“These are in inflation adjusted to 2021 is what it looks like.”
Trump's Potential Candidacy for Prime Minister of Israel
15:39 to 16:40
Exploring the implications of Trump suggesting he could run for Israeli PM.
“seem to be faltering or basically dead, he has identified another potential political opportunity for himself that I think does make some sense.”
Trump's Absence from Don Jr.'s Wedding
16:40 to 17:33
Discussing Trump's comments on potentially missing his son's wedding.
“Didn't they rename part of the Golan Heights, the Trump Heights?”
Media Reactions to Trump's Wedding Absence
17:33 to 18:48
Analyzing media narratives surrounding Trump's absence from family events.
“Donald Trump asked whether or not he's going to be attending his own son's wedding.”
Show all 36 chapters
Critiques of Trump's Priorities
18:48 to 19:19
Delving into critiques of Trump's priorities regarding family versus politics.
The DNC Autopsy's Controversial Release
19:19 to 20:26
Analyzing the fallout from the release of the controversial DNC autopsy report.
“Having an affair with Stormy Daniels, is that what you're referring to?”
Reactions to the DNC Autopsy Findings
20:26 to 22:41
Discussing various reactions to the DNC report and implications for the party.
“Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.”
Failures Highlighted in the DNC Autopsy
22:41 to 25:47
Examining the failures and mismanagement revealed in the DNC autopsy report.
“Okay, so I'll go ahead and put up this Politico report on the screen if they'll let me hear.”
Critiques of the DNC's Handling of the Report
25:47 to 28:01
Critiquing the DNC's approach to the autopsy report and its implications.
“That, of course, creates a Streisand effect where everyone's like, all right, well, what is in this report?”
DNC Autopsy Report Insights
28:01 to 28:49
An analysis of the DNC's resources and failures in producing a thorough autopsy report.
“Like, I think they got wrong, like, when John Boehner left.”
Critique on DNC's Handling
28:50 to 30:56
Discussion on the handling and excuses related to the DNC's report and its implications.
“He said that no source material was provided because of that.”
John Fetterman's Controversial Relationship
34:29 to 35:00
Exploration of John Fetterman's relationship with a controversial Israel handler.
“Whereas a more national, like, Super Tuesday approach is better probably for progressive candidates.”
Inside Fetterman's Political Shift
35:01 to 38:08
Discussion on the significant political changes and influences on John Fetterman post-stroke.
“So I'm going to go ahead and throw up this write-up here from New York Mag, isn't it, right?”
Fetterman's Mental Capacity and Accountability
38:09 to 42:00
Analyzing Fetterman's mental state and how it impacts his political decisions and accountability.
“When Fetterman filmed Real Time with Bill Maher, Safir met up with him in L.A.”
Fetterman's Political Struggles and Future
42:00 to 48:00
A deep dive into John Fetterman's political situation, mental health challenges, and potential future in politics.
“I think I agree with you to some extent, Emily, that he's being taken advantage of.”
Fed Independence and Political Influence
48:00 to 53:10
Discussion on the implications of Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve and its independence.
“We have a new Fed chair being sworn in today, Kevin Warsh.”
Bond Market Dynamics and Economic Challenges
53:10 to 56:00
Analysis of the bond market trends, interest rates, and the disconnect between stock market performance and economic realities.
“All of this can sound like Wall Street gibberish about what bond yields are.”
Economic Disparities and Stock Market Dynamics
56:00 to 1:02:26
Explore the disconnect between stock market performance and average American struggles.
“You're talking about the Wall Street gibberish.”
AI Regulations and Economic Concerns
1:02:26 to 1:06:04
Discuss the implications of AI regulations on stock valuations and economic stability.
“And I'm sure you guys saw that Trump was contemplating an executive of order on AI, which was, I mean, relatively limited.”
Conspiracy Theories and Media Analysis
1:06:04 to 1:10:01
Delve into a peculiar theory regarding a public figure's appearance on Fox News.
“We really appreciate you helping us make sense of all of this as Kevin Warsh is signed in, sworn in, I should say today.”
Discussion on Mask Allegations
1:10:01 to 1:12:25
Exploring the bizarre claims of a masked impersonator and media's role.
“No, the idea, Ryan, is that he's been swapped out because maybe he wasn't towing the line they wanted him to tow anymore.”
Impact of Immigration Policy Changes
1:12:26 to 1:13:50
Analyzing the radical changes to U.S. immigration policy regarding green cards.
“And Ryan, you want to pitch to your interview here with Dari Elisa?”
Hunter Biden Interview Insights
1:13:51 to 1:15:54
Insights from Hunter Biden's interview regarding political plots and affiliations.
“He claims that there was an Israeli plot to kind of take him and his dad down.”
Dario-Lisa Chevalier's Congressional Campaign
1:15:55 to 1:19:46
Dario-Lisa Chevalier discusses her run for Congress against an incumbent.
“challenging an incumbent in New York City.”
Challenges and Opportunities in Harlem Politics
1:19:47 to 1:23:54
Examining the historical and current dynamics of political representation in Harlem.
“Yeah, I mean, I would, well, first of all, I think the fact that we are dealing with a different machine right now and in this seat, we're dealing with what Adriano Espaya calls his squadriano.”
Building Political Momentum for Change
1:24:00 to 1:25:38
Learn about the efforts to build a working-class movement in political campaigns.
“You know, he famously dissuaded a primary challenge against Hakeem Jeffries.”
The Importance of Representation in Congress
1:25:38 to 1:27:37
Discover the significance of sending progressive representatives to Congress.
“that for so many people, this is an opportunity to show that last year wasn't a fluke, that these politics not only are popular, but that they work and that we can build government for working class people.”
Community Issues and the State of New York City
1:27:37 to 1:31:25
Explore the social issues affecting New York City and the importance of community investment.
“And so, you know, I think if we're serious about winning in November and making sure that we're taking back the House, it matters what kind of Democrats we're electing in the primaries.”
Addressing Public Parks and Playground Conditions
1:31:25 to 1:33:15
Hear about the current state of public parks and playgrounds in New York City.
“How are the playgrounds in your district?”
Call to Action for Community Investment
1:33:15 to 1:33:30
Understand the need for investment in communities over militarization and privatization.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Pool days call for cookouts and lots of laundry. This Memorial Day at Lowe's. Save$80 on a Charbroil Performance Series 4 Burner Gas Grill. Now just$199. Plus, get up to 45 % off select major appliances to keep dishes, clothes, and food fresh. Having fun in the sun is easy with us in your corner. Our best lineup is here at Lowe's. Valid for 527. While supplies last, selection varies by location. See associate or lowes.com for details. Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI.
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1:21Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Generated assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. What's up, y 'all? Summer's got a different tempo. Everything's a little looser, brighter. One plan turns into another. You hear something, you stay a little longer. Next thing you know, you're somewhere you didn't plan to be.
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2:25Ryan Grim:Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to BreakingPoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at BreakingPoints.com.
2:54Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Breaking Points Friday edition. We got Ryan, Emily and Crystal joining me on this show. We got a lot of good stuff that we're going to cover for you guys today. We got some updates on Iran with a new report saying that the US basically spent a huge portion of our missile stockpile or our defense interceptor missiles defending Israel. We got the DNC autopsy that just released and it's a complete pile of garbage. We got an explosive new report on John Fetterman and his apparent, I don't know, what would you guys call him, like Israel handler or something?
3:28Ryan Grim:Yeah. Best friend. I would say best friend. Brain damage plus Israel handler. Israel handler for a brain damaged man. And then we got Hunter Biden on Candace Owens with some pretty intense claims there. And if we get to it later, we may have a little conspiracy that we want to get to with an appearance on Fox News that was interesting to say the least. And then we're also going to be joined by Rohit Chopra to discuss the Fed. So welcome, everybody, to the show. You guys excited? How do we feel? I'm excited. Mac has been doing some groundbreaking reporting on this mask situation over at Fox News.
4:01Ryan Grim:So if we rush through the topics to get to that, you'll understand why. All right, let's go ahead and jump in with Iran here. So if I put this up on the screen, we have a new report on apparently how the U.S. wasted a huge portion of our missile stockpile here from The Washington Post on defending Israel. They say here from The Washington Post, U.S. bears the brunt of Israel's missile defense. Pentagon assessment shows amid hostilities with Iran, the American military expended far more advanced interceptors to protect Israel than Israeli forces did themselves, according to the Defense Department.
4:40What do you guys make of this?
4:40Ryan Grim:Well, it also reminds me of the fact that you had some of the Gulf allies seemingly upset over the fact that we were spending a lot more effort and and, you know, equipment defending Israel than defending them. They felt comparatively exposed. But Ryan, I'm curious how this dovetails with the reporting that you all did, that Israel was down to double digit interceptors. I mean, is this just a case where the U.S. had a lot more to work with than Israel did to begin with? then, of course, we're always going to ride to their rescue. Yes, and I'll send this piece to Mac. Yeah, it was several weeks ago.
5:19What was it? Oh, look, early April, I reported with Moz over at DropSite that, yeah, that sources in the administration were telling us that they were down to double-digit. The Israelis were down to double-digit ballistic missile interceptors. And that's key because Patriot, you know, there are a lot of Patriot missile systems that are still there, but those are really designed more for like rockets from Hamas or Hezbollah. Those are not ballistic missile interceptors. They can be used for it, but it's not what they're made for and they're not very effective at it. So when the war ended, yeah, the Israelis were down to double digits, which helps to explain why the U.S.
5:57was so rapidly exhausting its own supplies. You know, if the numbers are to be believed that Iran fired something like 1 ,000 people ballistic missiles during this 40 days. Plus, don't forget, during the 12-day war, they fired a number of ballistic missiles then, and it takes years to replenish. So there's just a massive asymmetry in the timeline and the scale of what it takes to deploy these things and what it takes to replenish them. Whereas it feels like Iran, under normal conditions, can produce ballistic missiles at a much faster rate than our kind of sclerotic industrial base can produce the ballistic missile interceptors.
6:46And also we shoot off many per ballistic missile. You fire one ballistic missile, we might send 10 or 12 interceptors at it. Millions and millions of dollars worth of interceptors at one. And they're sending their oldest ballistic missiles and the cheapest and the ones that have the closest expiration date first, obviously. So the ones that they have remaining are going to be the ones that were produced more recently and be higher tech. So if the Israelis are down to double digits and the U.S. has fired off a significant portion of what it has, then what is another round of fighting going to look like?
7:27It's like, guys. Yeah, I mean, anybody there thinking this through?
7:31Ryan Grim:Well, Ryan, this is why we need that$1.5 trillion defense budget. Which means that in 10 years, we'll be ready for another one of these. But like, I think he wants to do it this weekend. Yeah, I mean, this is why I think people have been saying Trump has no military options. Like he can threaten to, you know, wipe out Iranian infrastructure. The other aspect of this beyond just the shortages that we're facing is that in a lot of these conversations, whether it's from like Lindsey Graham or from the push from Benjamin Netanyahu to get us back into a war right now, Now, it's like they never include in that Iran has escalatory options themselves that they could blow up a bunch of infrastructure in, you know, the UAE or the rest of the Gulf countries.
8:10You know, they've obviously had reference to the Internet cables, the undersea Internet cables. You know, they could if it really becomes existential, blow up desalination plants, you know, lots of different things that they could target. They could close down the Red Sea if they wanted to work with the Houthis on that. So, like, there is no real viable military option for Trump that's on the table here. Well, and to the point that Crystal was just making, there's a massive increase being asked for at the Pentagon right now.
8:39Emily Jashinsky:We're a year away from Doge, which you'll be shocked to remember, would not, as Bannon said, cross the river and go over to the Pentagon. and here we are, it's like you're in a situation where you're almost held hostage. Because if you think of something happening in Taiwan, which I don't know, I mean, experts say it's still years out, but that would truly be like as close to a hot war on American soil. It's not on American soil, obviously, but it would affect all of us immediately in a way that what's happening in the Middle East, short of nuclear escalation, is not. If we think gas prices now are bad, what would happen if there was an invasion of Taiwan and suddenly all of our chips manufacturing was cut off?
9:26Emily Jashinsky:That has not been reshored or nearshored. That is still primarily coming out of Taiwan. Our ability to just function and the complete basic tasks as a society would be severely hampered. And so now you're like, well, I guess we spent all of that in Ukraine and Israel. We're going to need to spend even more money asking these defense contractors, getting rich off of everything to protect us. You're like, they put you in like a hostage situation, essentially, if that were to happen. And I'm not like, you know, agitating for conflict in Taiwan. It's just the way the system is set up right now that we would actually suffer enormously if there was action in Taiwan.
10:07Emily Jashinsky:So it's like, again, being held hostage by defense contractors.
10:11Ryan Grim:Yeah, it's an extreme vulnerability because of the way that we've made ourselves completely reliant on this one particular company based in Taiwan. I mean, the truth of the matter is, like, look at what has happened with Iran. The idea we're going to fight a war against China. I mean, that is an idiotic idea to begin with. Incredibly destructive. Even Trump has indicated, like, I don't think that's going to work out. The only option with China is basically like cooperation and coexistence. That's the only option that is on the table at this point. And, you know, I hope that the Iran war has made that perfectly clear that our best bet is to build up our own domestic manufacturing.
10:48Ryan Grim:That's obviously not happening. We're going in reverse since Trump has come into office. But that would be the ideal. And, you know, find ways to live with and do deals with China. That would be something that you would think that Trump would would have an interest in doing. But Ryan, you mentioned you think that military hostilities, that we may restart aggressive offensive military hostilities this weekend. I've been seeing all kinds of like, you know, nonsensical bullshit report. Oh, they're about to have a deal. We're going to announce deal in hours, you know, different leaks that are coming out from various outlets.
11:21Ryan Grim:Of course, we've both seen the U.S. position. We've seen the Iranian position. They are not in the same galaxy. There seem to be no points, really, where they have come to anything approximating an agreement. So that seems highly unlikely to me. What are you all hearing from your sources? And what makes you think it's a possibility that we see military action this weekend? Well, he's got a three-day weekend. He loves to, you know, he loves to go to war. A little extra time. Yeah, I think he's got a little extra time. That's a good point. All of the reports in Axios suggesting that a deal is close are kind of a leading indicator that a deal is not close and we're getting cultured at war.
12:04The Iranians, for their part, seem to be assuming an attack is coming and bracing for it. And if you're the Iranian leadership, you're probably only going to be in a better position after the U.S. exhausts itself once again, depending on how long they carry it on. Now, the personal risk for Iranian leadership is that they personally may be killed again. You know, the U.S. and Israel are both actually very good at assassinating, you know, the upper echelons of organizations. I don't, they haven't yet, you know, demonstrated how that's an effective kind of military or political strategy because new people kind of fill in.
12:51Sometimes those new people are more effective and competent than the previous people. Sometimes they're a little less. But just kind of killing someone and having them be replaced by someone else has, as far as I can tell, in any of their complex, not actually done anything other than satisfy whatever urge is satisfied by doing that. So, you know, they have their offer on the table, the Iranians. And it's kind of up to Trump to either take it or go back to war. Yeah.
13:21Ryan Grim:Hard to imagine him holding the L, but he seems to be kind of stalling as much as he can. Maybe he goes to war with Birba instead, so we forget about Iran.
13:30Emily Jashinsky:Yeah. My theory is that he's trying right now to wait out. He knows he's in a bad situation where he can either try and make a deal that his side is not going to accept, his Mark Levin, Mark Thiessen, Netanyahu side is not going to accept, or he can escalate, which he knows is going to make his poll numbers worse. It's going to be even worse for inflation and gas prices heading into the heating up of the midterm season. And so he's hoping that something happens internally. There are always rumors that the government is just on the precipice. But I think he is hoping that the government will be, the regime will finally face a real threat.
14:09Emily Jashinsky:And it sounds like pie in the sky to us, of course. But again, I'm just trying to say why I think he's been, he doesn't have any good option. and we understand that. But I think that's where he's in this holding pattern is he's just hoping that there's some type of black swan event or that the government falls, which is something you still hear from Iran hawks, that it's possible. And he's just he's holding out until something changes or his hand is absolutely forced. But yeah, that's that's the strategies. That's my best guess at the president of the United States strategy. And I just wanted to put up this chart of Pentagon.
14:44Emily Jashinsky:this is the Pentagon budget since 1948. You'll just notice something. You have to look really hard to see it, but basically it always goes up. Yeah.
14:54Ryan Grim:That one downturn, wasn't that from, what was it, sequestration under the Obama administration? Yeah. Isn't that what that is, right? What's crazy about this graph is, I mean, the$1.5 trillion, I mean, it would be almost double what the graph is right here. Right. And this is from the... These are in inflation adjusted to 2021 is what it looks like. But still, yes. Ryan, the point you made about the Axios reports being a leading indicator brings to mind, I'm reading Ender's Game with my son right now, and there's a line in there where he says sometimes the lies are more dependable than the truth.
15:31Ryan Grim:You can tell more based on the reliable lies than you can based on the supposed truth, and that may well be the case here. But, Mack, while Trump's political prospects here in the U.S. seem to be faltering or basically dead, he has identified another potential political opportunity for himself that I think does make some sense. Do you want to go ahead and play this for us? He's a great guy. To me, he's a great guy. Don't forget, he was a wartime prime minister. And he's not treated right in Israel, in my opinion. I'm right now at 99 percent in Israel. I could run for prime minister. So maybe after I do this, I'll go to Israel, run for prime minister.
16:12Ryan Grim:Look, he's had worse ideas. I think he should do it. There's a logic to it. It's kind of making the unofficial official at this point. They should just officially swap places now. You know how he used to always share like cat-turned Twitter polls? This is the new version of the cat-turned Twitter poll. Like, well, everybody hates me here, but you should see how popular I am. I'm at 99 % in Israel. Well, to be fair, I mean, his approval rating in Israel has to be significantly higher than it is in the U.S. Oh, no doubt about it. They do love him there. Well, they have the Trump Heights.
16:43Emily Jashinsky:Didn't they rename part of the Golan Heights, the Trump Heights? I think they've renamed streets after him. It's his fantasy. Yeah, he'd be closer to all his friends in Dubai and Doha and Riyadh. Yeah.
16:57Ryan Grim:He has the same aesthetic sensibility as those friends in those places. So it's a perfect fit, really. I mean, I think he should really pursue this sooner rather than later, to be honest with you. Yeah, and it can be like a regal dynasty. Donald Trump Jr. can take over. Maybe Barron. They can battle it out. I'm not sure that Trump would choose Don Jr. to succeed. He'd make them fight for getting his wedding. He's not even really planning on attending his son's wedding this weekend, apparently. Should we throw up this clip here real quick? Donald Trump asked whether or not he's going to be attending his own son's wedding.
17:38Here was his passionate and inspired response.
17:40Emily Jashinsky:Look at that guy behind him, too.
17:46He'd like me to go, but it's going to be just a small little private affair. And I'm going to try and make it. I'm in the midst. I said, you know, this is not good timing for me. I have a thing called Iran and other things. That's one I can't win on. If I do attend, I get killed. If I don't attend, I get killed. By the fake news, of course, I'm talking about. Okay. So, I mean, just amazing stuff there. Wait, what about the, he's somebody I've known a very long time or something?
18:15Emily Jashinsky:I think he was talking about the fiance, but it is hard to tell. It does sound like he's saying somebody I've known for a very long time. What's amazing about it is that the cope that I saw was like, oh, well, the guest list is like, you know, really small, just like immediate family and friends. And if Trump came that it would become this whole like public media affair. But then in Trump's explanation of why he's not going he's kind of like i'm just kind of busy like i got i got the optics of it yeah don's been
18:42Ryan Grim:married before the concept that anyone would criticize him for going to his own son's wedding like dude you golf like every other day you're seemingly never doing any or you're like touring the ballroom and obsessing over the details there the idea that like you know we would pick on you for going to your son's wedding i don't think that's the biggest reputational risk that you Do we all remember, though, what Trump was doing as he was being born?
19:10Emily Jashinsky:As Don was being born? Oh, no. Don, never mind, yeah. Oh, was it Barron that was? Yes. Oh.
19:19Ryan Grim:Having an affair with Stormy Daniels, is that what you're referring to?
Read the full transcript
19:22Emily Jashinsky:To Crystal's point, the chyron, while he was making this comment about getting killed by the fake news if he goes to Don's wedding, was about his arch. He was talking about his art.
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22:07Ryan Grim:He's got to stay focused, Emily. He's a little busy right now. It's not a great time. Sorry, Don Jr. Next wedding. I got you, buddy. The drapes are coming in for the ballroom. I mean, I'm just swamped here, guys. If you have the wrong drapes, it doesn't really bring the place together in the same way. It's very important. You can't, it's not the kind of thing you can outsource, you know. You've got a certain vision. You've got an eye for it. He's got to be there to evaluate the samples that are being brought in. So maybe next wedding, Don Jr., sorry. There'll be another. All right, should we move on to the DNC autopsy here, guys?
22:44Ryan Grim:Yes. Okay, so I'll go ahead and put up this Politico report on the screen if they'll let me hear. The report is so stupid. The DNC 2024 autopsy is roiling Democrats. So this has been kind of an amazing saga. They tried to cover up this report and there was lots of speculation for months as to why they weren't releasing it. Some people thought, you know, maybe it was, you know, not going to touch on certain things. Some people thought it was just a bad report. Turns out that this thing, number one, may have been semi-AI generated. It doesn't talk about, like, probably like three out of the five major issues going in to this election.
23:25I mean, it was a complete and total pile of garbage from top to bottom. What do you guys make of this report?
23:32Ryan Grim:I like to call it the DNC slop topsy. See what I did there? Yeah, I mean, it's like it's funny because there actually were some rumors floating around of people saying that, like, you know, actually, the reason they didn't put it out is just because it was really embarrassingly poorly done. I kind of thought that was cope. You know, I was like, it's probably they probably just are embarrassed by some of the things in it. Ryan's theory, which I thought was good, was that it would expose the way that all of these various high priced consultants completely failed at their jobs, might name names there in a way that will keep them from getting further lucrative contracts.
24:08Ryan Grim:But actually, it was just really that embarrassingly bad. You get to the bottom and it's like, insert conclusion here. Like they didn't even, you know, they didn't even get to the ending. it's definitely AI generated. Some of the quotes are the most, you know, AI slot. And I think it was like, it seems like an older version of AI too that doesn't even more poorly veiled, you know, where it's so obvious that this wasn't a human and it's just a bunch of consultants being gobbledygook. But to your point, doesn't even mention the word Gaza or genocide, doesn't talk about inflation, doesn't talk about Biden's advanced age.
24:49Ryan Grim:And like these are kind of, you know, these were big things that are swirling around. So apparently, you know, the head of the DNC, Ken Martin, who's under justifiably under a lot of fire right now, although I don't know, he seems like a pretty good emblem of the current Democratic Party as it's currently constituted, in my opinion. But in any case, apparently hired some guys like a friend of his. He did it, you know, using. And he only just got fired from the DNC, the guy that he hired. He was like still within the DNC operating until a couple of days ago. Right. And so they and then the way that they handled this whole thing, though, was, first of all, obviously, you didn't take seriously that you needed to learn lessons from this devastating electoral loss, insane, that you decided to do this as this like side project for one of your incompetent friends, insane to begin with.
25:36Ryan Grim:Then this the original promise was, of course, we're going to release this because why else would you do it if you're not going to release it? Then suddenly we start getting this like, well, we just need to look forward. We're not going to talk about this anymore. That, of course, creates a Streisand effect where everyone's like, all right, well, what is in this report? So you draw more attention to it. And then at the end of the day, you put out this thing that is just complete embarrassment to everybody involved. So it is a pretty stunning indictment of you've got the disastrous PR, you've got the thorough incompetence, And you have an avoidance of any of the stickier or more difficult issues from, you know, the current Democratic Party and from the past election.
26:18Ryan Grim:So it is kind of a perfect symbol of all the ways that they fail. Well, we do have some counterpoints here from the same Politico piece that I thought were kind of amazing. Here we get a quote from the centrist welcome pack saying, Ken Martin's autopsy of the autopsy was excellent. After spending a decade accepting all edits from every progressive interest group, better to just delete all DNC strategy docs and admit we need to start from scratch. Admitting incompetence is much better than denial. So we have praise of Ken Martin's autopsy of the autopsy. We also have Third Way, Jonathan Cohen here, the president of the group, saying, I think it's clear why this report was buried, because as it says in the opening, it calls for Democrats to return to the vital center.
27:01Now I understand why a lot of very Twitter-friendly, super-liberal DNC staff didn't want this to come out. So we have all of these centrist organizations coming out and saying the report, of course, proves all of their priors. Hilarious. I would suggest if people have time that we can just just to look at it for fun. There's just it has these as somebody mentioned that it has all these little red boxes that are like added by the DNC afterwards. Partly, I think sometimes for like defamation reasons where it's like we don't stand by this. Like, for instance, for the 2022 cycle, the guy writes Democrats netted two seats in the House, flipping 10 seats from the Republicans while losing eight.
27:48And then there's a red box that says data appears to be inaccurate and contradict public reporting. They didn't even accurately convey the number of seats that were won and lost.
27:59Ryan Grim:Yes. On the other hand. Basic facts. Like, I think they got wrong, like, when John Boehner left. I mean, there were all kinds of things that were just flat out wrong that no one bothered to check. But I wanted to give an example. I pulled up one of the examples of the sort of, like, AI slop slash consultant speak writing here.
28:15Emily Jashinsky:It's hard to tell the difference between AI and consultant speak. That is true.
28:19Ryan Grim:That is fair. I think AI is like trained on consultant speak, basically. But anyway, building to win requires new thinking and building to last requires thinking about more than the next election. It requires finding the best way to connect with the right voters in the right places. And if 2024 has proven anything, there is enough money to do it all the right way. Oh, that's good. Insightful.
28:40Emily Jashinsky:You know, there wasn't enough money. This was, I thought, the most interesting part was Martin in his Substack post where he dropped this report into a PDF. He said that no source material was provided because of that. Fixing it would have meant starting over from the beginning, every conversation, every interview, every data set. And you just hear a sentence like that and you think, OK, then do it. You're the DNC. You're supposed to be you have vast resources. You're supposed to be figuring out what the hell went wrong. And you're saying, oh, well, we just couldn't restart the process that my friend who I'm throwing under the bus apparently botched.
29:24Emily Jashinsky:We just had to shelve it. And then everyone went crazy. My mistake. But we simply could not have produced an autopsy. It would have been too labor intensive. Like, what an insane excuse to put into your subsac post unveiling this autopsy, presumably language that was looked at by other people at the DNC. And they were like, yes, go with that. This is the best possible excuse. The DNC simply lacked the resources to do a real autopsy.
29:53Ryan Grim:Well, and it also, I mean, obviously the whole thing is a disaster top to bottom. And the way it was handled was a complete disaster. if the product was initially not good and that was the truth of the matter, he could have been candid about that from the beginning of like, we were not satisfied with the initial product. That would probably also have created a lot of conspiracies of like, oh, you didn't like the answers you got. That's certainly what I would have thought initially if they were hiding the initial product. But he could have said, look, we got an initial product. It wasn't good enough.
30:21Ryan Grim:You know, we're going back and recircle. It's going to take a little bit more time, but we're going to put on something that we can stand behind because it contained basic factual errors, lacked the sourcing documentation, blah, blah, blah. Still not ideal, right? Ideally, you just hire someone competent and transparent and spend the money and the time to actually learn something useful out of all of this. But what a complete circus. What an absolute shitshow at this point. No lessons learned.
30:51Emily Jashinsky:Well, let's just add on a just sort of a news basis quickly. There are now people calling understandably, Like I've seen the Pod Save guys teeing off on Ken Martin. It's entirely possible that he loses his job over this. Some of the speculation is that they were actually floating in playbook this morning. John Tester, they called John Tester and he said something like, are you on illegal substances? John Tester does not want this job, former senator from Montana, apparently, but they're already looking to get Martin out. Some people are, at least, but others are defending him and saying he did the best that he could with what he was the hand that he was dealt.
31:25Emily Jashinsky:He dealt this hand. So that's a silly excuse. All this, though, really is a sideshow because the DNC is kind of a useless institution beyond setting the calendar dates and choosing the states that are going to lay out the next presidential election. That's essential. and the kind of party insiders who want to keep out like the Bernie wing, they want to keep it to places like Iowa and South Carolina that aren't competitive in the.
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34:52Ryan Grim:Yeah, just a complete cluster on every single level. Incredible. All right, so now we move on to the epic of John Fetterman and his apparent alleged Israel handler behind the scenes. So I'm going to go ahead and throw up this write-up here from New York Mag, isn't it, right? Their headline is, The man who explains Israel to John Fetterman, how a little-known writer became one of the senator's closest confidants. So this is genuinely one of the most insane stories that I've read. Basically, it outlines how like and obviously John Fetterman had the stroke and we all saw like this drastic political change after that.
35:34But it's gotten to the point where Israel is basically all that he talks about. It's all that he cares about. And apparently this guy, David Safir, is his closest confidant, has set up calls with Benjamin Netanyahu, went with him on his trip to Israel, and is sort of guiding his immorality on this topic in a deeply thorough way to the point where the rest of the staffers on John Fetterman's staff are just like confused and blown away and disturbed by the relationship. He also has sort of an unidentified background, this guy, Safir. I'll just read a little bit from the article. He describes himself publicly only as a, quote, business professional, and his employers and occupations on political donation forms have been ambiguous, including N slash A, consultant, self-employed.
36:29David has never really been forthcoming about what he does, a person close to Fetterman says. it's always like I'm in wealth management or something. So what is going on here, guys?
36:41Ryan Grim:Well, and the family has a lot of his grandfather was very influential, like pro-Israel lobbyist. And obviously the family is in the 90s and appears to be very well connected. I want to let me read a piece here just about the relationship so people can really get a sense of what we're talking about. And of course, the context here is that Fetterman has completely changed politically from when he got elected. You know, it seems like the stroke genuinely did not only damage his brain, change his personality. And this is based on some other reporting, by the way, from New York Magazine, changed his political positions.
37:14Ryan Grim:Now he's obsessed with defending Israel constantly, loves going on Fox News or whatever their issue du jour is and taking their side and being like the self-hating Democrat. In any case, he's lost a ton of his staffers. You know, they've all basically abandoned ship. He just lost his chief of staff in the past week or so. So who's filled in the gaps that leaves this huge vacuum for apparently this character to come in and fill in the gaps. So it says here, Safir, a writer of Jewish history and fundraiser for orthodox causes, has no public background in government or counseling politicians on Capitol Hill.
37:51Ryan Grim:He is not an official staffer or paid outside advisor. A few years ago, he, quote, just kind of appeared in the senator's orbit, one former Fetterman staffer remembers. And then suddenly he seemed to be everywhere. Staffers would walk into Fetterman's office only to find Safir sitting in the room. When the senator went to Israel in 2025, Safir joined him on the trip. When Fetterman filmed Real Time with Bill Maher, Safir met up with him in L.A. The two are constantly texting and talking, according to multiple former Fetterman staffers. And Safir has unofficially operated as a top campaign fundraiser and senior advisor.
38:25Ryan Grim:He's even set up and attended sensitive meetings with foreign officials. He has, in some cases, he's the only person staffing those meetings, I've been told. They give an example here. In September 2025, Fetterman and some of his senior staffers gathered at the senator's office for a meeting with Yahiel. Later, the Israeli ambassador to the United States, according to one of the staffers in attendance, Safir was inexplicably in the room, too. Far from a public event. During the meeting, Fetterman tested on a proposal to force every senator to vote on whether they think Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
38:57Ryan Grim:Support that, actually. They should go ahead and do that. Anyway, it says they gossip freely. and Safir has been on these calls with foreign leaders, on the calls with Netanyahu, going to Israel with him. He is de facto one of Fetterman's closest advisors, even though he is, you know, not an official advisor. We don't know where he came from. He apparently just suddenly appeared in the orbit. And then I also wanted to share this other part because this ties together with, you know, what Fetterman's mental capacity is at this point. Some of the Fetterman staffers were sharing with New York Magazine, the former staffers, some of the text exchanges and the ways that Fetterman was constantly siding with Republicans.
39:37Ryan Grim:Here's one of the examples that they give here, word for word. By early this year, many on Fetterman's staff were incredulous and exhausted. In private, their boss was acting like a Republican, they say. In January, 2026, Fetterman sent to a group chat with staffers a screenshot of an article headline about how the average working family spends nearly$4 ,000 annually on health care. He texted, quote, how should it cost? Question mark. Free question mark. He complained in the text, which I obtained, quote, I don't understand what affordability it is. So we've got this brain damaged man who doesn't understand what affordability it is, who is now enthralled to this Israel-connected, you know, obsessed Zionist who's turning, just appeared from nowhere and is turning up at all these meetings and everything.
40:32Ryan Grim:Like, what the hell is going on here? He also apparently texted a different staffer that Epstein was a nothing burger. The worst pics that I've seen were from Clinton, LOL.
40:43Emily Jashinsky:It doesn't. Listen, the media was so complicit in pretending that Fetterman was fine until I think it was like an NBC interview towards the end of the race. That's how bad of a candidate Mehmet Oz was for Pennsylvania Senate. Just to be clear that John Fetterman, after his stroke, still beat Dr. Oz. We had that debate, remember? Yes. Yes. So bad. It was painful. And the debate was after early voting had started. It was a complete disaster. He is he should not be in the Senate. He is not well enough to be in the Senate. And part of the reason why we're now seeing is that people are taking advantage of him.
41:22Emily Jashinsky:They're taking advantage of his disability. It seems it's a very uncomfortable thing to say, but it seems very clear that he's been going through these depressive episodes. He's been open about that. And people who are kind to him in his like vulnerable state are getting a ton of credibility on political advisory questions with the senator. I don't think that's a Freudian read. I think it's a pretty clear read of what's been happening, that people are insinuating themselves into his circle because he's sort of vulnerable and easily manipulated. He is not operating at full capacity. He should not be in the U.S.
41:56Emily Jashinsky:Senate. That is completely obvious. And anyway, he continues to get a pass now from the right. I think I agree with you to some extent, Emily, that he's being taken advantage of. He clearly mentally is not there. He needs to be removed from the Senate. But at the same time, I don't want to take away all accountability from Fetterman because if you're going through these mental health struggles and stuff, it doesn't really help to make your sole focus in the Senate defending a genocidal rogue state and making that your entire personality and making sure that you're flipping on all these previous progressive positions and the entire party now despises you.
42:34I mean, it's like you could help yourself out a little bit on that front. Certainly. Yeah, he seems to have a kind of visceral contempt for his party at this point, which shows up in those text messages, too. And there was, you know, as Crystal mentioned, his chief of staff, his third chief of staff just quit. Holly Otter being And the Axios reporter who broke that story had reached out to Fetterman for comment. He didn't get back initially. And then afterwards, after publication, as she writes this story, he wrote back, you know, so much for the turnover argument. Clicks and, like, sent her, like, a screenshot of, like, you know, that Josh Gottheimer and some other people have, like, higher turnover.
43:17It's like, yeah, okay. You're not, like, the worst of 535, but, like, it's really bad.
43:24Ryan Grim:Gottheimer is worse. Oh, God, Godheimer is like consistently number one for staff turnover. I thought it was Klobuchar.
43:31Emily Jashinsky:It was Klobuchar. It was Kamala Harris for a while. She had a lot. Nobody goes through staff faster than Godheimer, I don't think.
43:38Ryan Grim:I appreciate him breaking that stereotype that it's the female senators who have the high turnover. Thank you, sir. Yes, we, good appearance.
43:46Emily Jashinsky:Because like women, he is also mentally ill. Okay, sorry.
43:53there was um there was one more piece of this that i wanted to read well real quick um so they say in the piece that uh when he's on capitol hill this guy safir will hang out and sit in fetterman's office all day or walk with him to the senate floor according to a former staffer after their conversations fetterman would appear far more radicalized i'm guessing specifically on israel fetterman has largely sidetracked other legislative mash uh matters according to the staffer and is now spending most of his time focusing on Israel. A few people working for Fetterman have begun to joke that he is the senator from Tel Aviv and call Safir the chief because he's apparently more powerful than the actual chief of staff.
44:29So maybe Fetterman has a future there.
44:36Although it's probably true that his approval rating in Tel Aviv is probably higher than Philadelphia. Or certainly. He won't go to Philadelphia.
44:46Emily Jashinsky:He's going to love Ed Calrion. McCormick, actually, the Republican senator from Pennsylvania recently went to Philadelphia as kind of just a try, just a taunt Fetterman. He had, like, Republicans usually don't bother going to Philadelphia because there are no votes there for them. But he went there. He hung out with the mayor. He had cheese steak. He did put out a video about it. Partly it was to taunt Fetterman who just refuses to go to Philadelphia, the biggest city in the state.
45:11Ryan Grim:I thought that McCormick and Fetterman were were buddies, though. I thought he and one of the reports was that he and Katie Britt were basically like cultivating Fetterman, again, taking advantage of his like declined mental state, hoping that he'll switch to the Republican side. Now, this article, and I kind of buy this, says they don't think that he'll switch to being a Republican because he relishes being like the, you know, pissing in the punch bowl of the Democrats, basically. And if they take control of the Senate, then he can play the role of a mansion or a cinema, only perhaps even more malevolently and certainly less, you know, with less savvy.
45:51Ryan Grim:But where they all have to come and, oh, what do you need John Fetterman to vote for this bill or that bill, et cetera, in order for Democrats to get anything through? Now, come 2028, when his term is up, like, I can't see any political. He is definitely going to lose a Democratic primary. I think he'd lose a Republican primary because it's one thing when you're the Democrat who's like saying the thing that Republicans won. But once you're actually a Republican, then it's like, OK, but you have all these other positions that don't square with the party. And we want our own like, you know, ideological MAGA person to represent us.
46:25Ryan Grim:So I don't know that that's a viable path for him. Hard to imagine him holding up in any sort of debate or public forum, certainly. So I don't know. I don't see much political future for him. But just in another sign of how his brain is complete mush at this point, according to these former staffers, he's thinking of running for president in 2028. And he thinks that maybe the right path is somebody will put him on their ticket, Democratic ticket, as the vice presidential candidate. Like, dude, everybody hates you. Like, you've destroyed your political brand. There's no chance. Not to mention, how are you not self-aware about your limitations at this point?
47:04Ryan Grim:So just really, really wild stuff.
47:09Emily Jashinsky:It's crazy. This is why people are chirping in his ear and puffing him up because he's detached from reality. He clearly is—and that's common in the Senate, actually. But he, I think, lacks the capacity to fully grasp what's happening around him. And that's really sad. His story to me is very, very sad. The things that he's talked about with his marriage and his depression, let alone how difficult it has been to just function neurologically. It's very, very sad. And the people of Pennsylvania deserve better.
47:42Ryan Grim:Yeah. Well, I admire your ability to have that compassion. I do not feel that in my heart. But I could if he were to resign his seat and say, I'm going to go get help and treatment for, you know, my current condition and not subject to the rest of us to his absolute insanity.
47:59Emily Jashinsky:And yeah, we're excited to be joined once again by Rohit Chopra, who is the incoming secretary of business and consumer in California. We have a new Fed chair being sworn in today, Kevin Warsh. And we're excited to have you here for some analysis. Thanks for coming back on the show. Thanks for having me.
48:46Emily Jashinsky:a way that obviously smacks of corruption to exert his influence in another area that has long been held up in D.C. circles as independent and so precious. Its independence is so precious. But I think you can probably help us understand the extent to which that was actually true, not from a perspective of saying, hey, Donald Trump, he's got the right idea here, but just it's another one of those cases where he's kind of putting the lie to something that probably needed to have some debunking anyway. Well, look, we should not have any one person have full and complete control of the money supply to determine who they can reward friends and punish enemies with.
49:30But I do think you hear a lot about Fed independence and there's going to be all sorts of people in Washington and Wall Street clutching their pearls that Kevin Warsh is being sworn in at the White House rather than somewhere else that seemed more cordoned off from politics. But I think there's lots of people who wonder, who has the Fed been independent from? And many question, was the Fed ever really independent from Wall Street and other owners of big financial assets? And just like everyone understands the Supreme Court is a group of nine people that is hyperpolitical, there's real talk about whether the seven people on the Fed are really just like them.
50:20And I think that does help explain a lot of why the president is drooling to take control and be able to call the shots here. Yeah.
50:31Ryan Grim:So you're moving from a situation where the Fed is very independent from the certainly Democratic whims of the people will continue to be independent from the Democratic whims of the people. But rather than being, I guess, beholden directly to Wall Street, it's more to Trump and his Silicon Valley oligarchic allies is the way I say it. You can tell me if you think that's correct. And obviously, Trump has been pushing aggressively for interest rate cuts. I mean, that's something that for me for a while has made sense, but maybe less so now with the, you know, the combination of the tariffs and then certainly with the Iran war putting upward pressure on prices.
51:08Ryan Grim:I wonder how you see the policy landscape that faces Kevin Warshish as he takes his job. Well, this past week, you have seen a real global sell off in the bond market, including of U.S. treasuries. that is going to make it much more expensive for farms and businesses and frankly, people who are just dying to figure out how to make the math work to buy a home. Interest rates are going up by normal market forces because they are seeing the price of oil and they are seeing real problems in the global economy. So I don't know if the Fed is really going to be able to fix this. Here's what I do know, though.
51:52Wall Street is pricing in that somehow they will pull a rabbit out of a hat because the stock market keeps going up and up and up. So at some point, you got to wonder when is reality going to set in, especially about the truth of some of these policies that are obviously pushing prices higher and really making a lot more people struggle and go deeper into debt. Well, what's going on in the bond market? Tuesday, you had these 30-year treasury notes hit a high of 5.18 or 5.19. you've got the 10-year note closing it on 4.7 which is just absolutely massive so Trump wants to control the Fed but the Fed is still kind of hooked into the global economy and is as Crystal was saying kind of constrained by reality as well so what is what is this bond market what is it doing like why does it seem to be recognizing that there's more chaos in the world than the stock market is recognizing?
53:02And what will that do to Trump's wish to get more rate cuts? Yeah, I think let's just be open with everyone. All of this can sound like Wall Street gibberish about what bond yields are. This is really what this is about. People don't believe that the U.S. is going to be able to pay back in real terms at the same level it used to. In other words, people are assuming inflation is going to go up and you are seeing signs across all parts of the globe that they are moving away from, they want to decouple a little bit from the U.S. They want to move away from owning U.S. treasuries. Now, there are some people who actually want that to occur and there's some arguments for it.
53:56But I think the result, Ryan, is that when it comes to things that we want to happen in our country, people being able to buy a home, people being able to borrow to start a business, all of that is going to go up and up. Because as you said, the bond market is looking at some reality here. They are seeing the Strait of Hormuz being closed until June and maybe pricing in that it could go much later. They are seeing a huge giveaway to wealthy people to the tune of trillions of dollars in deficit, even as ordinary people are struggling. So it's hard to know exactly how this plays out. What I talk to people about, they think there's a few things.
54:46If gas prices are over five bucks, if a pound of chicken breast is above five bucks, and if the 10-year Treasury note is above 5%, that spells real political and, I believe, also economic trouble. Beef prices just hit a record, too. Yeah, you're seeing now for just a pound of ground beef, it is now more in average more than the federal minimum wage. It has gone up since COVID about 75%. Wow. There's also real worry that this is not just about tariffs. Is this also about price fixing and price gouging? And frankly, a government that has a lot of talk about doing something, but nothing is really happening.
55:38You look at some of the sales numbers in big retailers. People are pulling back in so many ways. and that Memorial Day barbecue is going to cost way more than it did last year.
55:53Emily Jashinsky:And why then are stock markets thriving? Why does the market keep going up? You're talking about the Wall Street gibberish. I mean, the average American looks at everything you just laid out and says, okay, everything happening in the bond market, these are all the struggles of the average American. So why is the stock market continuing to go up, up, up? You know what's funny? I think a lot of people have now been saying for years, the stock market does not really represent how the economy is going. And you have seen it go up and up and up, even as cost of living. And frankly, people just being on a treadmill of trying to get by.
56:38If you look into the weeds of the stock market, it is really being driven by a handful of companies, mostly those that are big tech or AI hyperscalers. And the numbers keep going up. And you got to wonder if that speculation about AI's profits doesn't come true, you could really see a major correction. and we know that this economy is really running right now on wealthy people buying a lot of stuff. And if that starts reversing, we're really talking about broad, broad pain. We have, of course, upcoming talk about OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, you know, filing for IPOs. We really still are looking at all those numbers that they're putting out and many of them are running big losses.
57:38So these big stock market valuations, more and more people are admitting this is a problem if the optimistic results don't come true.
57:51Ryan Grim:Well, and the stock market has never been a perfect indicator of the well-being of the average American. But Rohit, it seems to me that increasingly it's a counter indicator because companies are so richly rewarded by investors for laying off workers and replacing them with automation, with robots effectively. Of course, you know, looming over that is the possibility that you're laying out here that we could be looking at a giant bubble and that this whole thing could come crashing down, which would be catastrophic for everyone, whether you're at the top or the middle or the bottom, but mostly for the bottom, they're always the ones that suffer the most.
58:27Ryan Grim:But I wonder if you see it the same way that the stock market has become kind of a reverse indicator of the well-being of the American people. Yeah, you know, I really, and you might remember this, after the 2008 crash and after COVID, the Fed really started essentially buying up a lot of financial assets, printing a lot of money, and intervening in ways that were really helping people who already owned these types of assets. And again, I think there's lots of people on Wall Street who just are pricing in that that's going to continue. That even if there is some sort of, you know, correction or major dislocation in the capital markets, that someone will step in to help because that's what happened after 2008.
59:24That's what happened after COVID. And they also saw after Liberation Day last April that President Trump seems pretty sensitive to the stock market going down and backing off, which, of course, coins the whole taco trade.
59:39Ryan Grim:And are they right about that, though, Roja? Because, I mean, so much of our economy is just a giant bet on AI and the build-down of these data centers. Are those companies and those bets effectively too big to fail at this point? Yeah, I mean, to me, we have a lot of eggs in one basket. You asked about the layoffs. You're seeing some people speculate that if the numbers aren't going to work out for some of these firms, that maybe they have to trim right now in order to keep justified evaluations or adjust their accounting numbers. We've seen things about depreciation of chips. I don't know how this is going to play out, But I hope that those who made big money during this, that they are not rescued even as the rest of the country really ends up suffering in these downturns.
1:00:36That's my hope and I think I'm advising everyone, let's be on alert for another bailout of those who already have money and power and let's instead figure out what are we going to do if the proverbial downturn hurts everyone, what are we going to do to safeguard them? And I think that is a question where people of every single political belief know is a big risk.
1:01:04Ryan Grim:So you seem to feel pretty strongly that AI is a bubble, that these companies don't, you know, their valuations aren't justified and we could be headed to, you know, some sort of a collapse. Well, I don't know. I think the question I have is there seems to be no one who wants the music to stop. There is really because we have so much riding on it, it almost feels like the investor class knows there's no other option. than to keep pushing this up. So you start worrying about, is that grounded in reality? You know, the finance person in me thinks if there is not cash flows that are going to come to justify these valuations, in other words, is it mostly vibes and hype?
1:01:54Often it's true at the early onset, vibes and hype are really, you know, it's a big part. Lots of companies start off not making and then they make it really big. Here, though, we have to see something in order to justify these trillion dollar plus valuations. So I guess, Crystal, what I'd say is I don't know if it's a big bubble, but if it does pop, I hope those who made enormous amounts of money are not the first to be rescued.
1:02:27Ryan Grim:Yeah. And I'm sure you guys saw that Trump was contemplating an executive of order on AI, which was, I mean, relatively limited. Just, hey, we're going to take a look at these models before they get released to the public. Seems like the very least that we could possibly do. And David Sachs came in over the top. No, no, no, you can't do this. It's going to screw up our competition with China. We've got to be, you know, just off to the races with absolutely no safeguards in place whatsoever. So you can see who's in control and whose voice has sway within the administration on this stuff. Yeah, and I think you're going to keep seeing fights about this.
1:03:02We saw how there was an attempt by the Trump administration to hit delete on every single state law that was trying to do even modest protections and safeguards on AI. And of course, that led to an eruption in Congress. This is going to be key. I think that we now know, And of course, Anthropik's release, or not release, that availability of Mythos really was put on pause because I think there were big questions. Is this going to be able to get through the cybersecurity of almost every major utility bank? Is it going to create the type of chaos that is simply not worth it? We are talking about certain types of technologies that maybe can get past the biggest cyber defenses we've seen.
1:03:58And so, Crystal, I think they may know that any type of regulatory intervention, if that leads to any pullback in stock market valuations, other dominoes may fall. Now, I don't agree with how they're doing it, but maybe that is how they are justifying that the stock market is the only thing keeping this economy going.
1:04:26Emily Jashinsky:Oh, well, unfortunately, I wish I could say Dodd-Frank was making me feel safer right now. You're, of course, out of the CFPB. Sadly, former Senator Barney Frank passed away this week. But I wish I could say that the legacy of Dodd-Frank were that we we had more protections right now. I guess my last question, I don't know if anybody else has something, but it's just why are we still looking at this this problem even after we were putting in safeguards? what, 10 plus years ago, 15 years ago. Yeah, I think this is part of the unresolved issues from 2008. A true sense of no one being held accountable, a true sense that the core issues of who is pulling the strings is still the same and that in fact now together with others have even more power and control over the economy.
1:05:23That is really, I think, what is fundamental. And until some of that almost monopolistic control over the system, until that grip is loosened, people are still going to have really deep suspicions about whether there is any rule of law when it comes to our economy. We saw it in 2008. We saw it in opioids. We saw it over and over again. And I think that is really where there's a jump ball, you know, for political leaders to really seize the moment right now when there is so much anxiety about the future of the economy.
1:06:03Emily Jashinsky:Well, thank you so much for Tamra Huchopra's incoming secretary of business and consumer in California. We really appreciate you helping us make sense of all of this as Kevin Warsh is signed in, sworn in, I should say today. Much appreciated. Thanks so much.
1:06:47Allegedly, retired Vice Admiral Robert Hayward appearing on Fox News. I'm going to play this clip here for you guys. I want you to focus on the bottom here where you can see what looks to be somewhat of a disconnect, a sharp, jagged line at his neck that, in my opinion at least, when I'm looking at this slowly, zoomed in here. It looks like it's completely disconnected from whatever's underneath what
1:07:16Emily Jashinsky:could be allegedly, hypothetically, a full-on sophisticated face mask that he's wearing on Fox News.
1:07:23Ryan Grim:Face and neck. Face and neck mask. Mac, I think you're out to lunch on this. I think that's just a shadow. Nothing to see here. I think it's just a shadow. Like, have you ever been in a studio and scene studio lighting, it can change your face a lot. What possible justification could you have for owning that? Yeah. What is going on? I don't want to know. I don't know what you're talking about. This is just my face. That was smooth, Crystal.
1:07:51Emily Jashinsky:That was smooth. Oh my God. I was on a different screen. I came back, didn't even see that. Ryan, what do you have there? Do you have something, Ryan? This is my mask. That's your mask there? That one's hyper, hyper realistic there. so uh anyways so this set off like a massive firestorm i had people uh debating me on this i had people trying to gaslight me here was one of the pictures that somebody drew they said oh look you just don't understand how studio lighting works diagram coming from the top and then there's a light coming from the side and this red part down here is allegedly where the mask disconnect is happening.
1:08:33I think that I have a better theory, which is given the content of what he was talking about in that clip.
1:08:39Ryan Grim:He was like pushing for war, right? Praising Donald Trump's handling of Iran, saying patriots are fully in control. We just maybe got Obama one more time and everything will be fine. And so my alternative theory to the other ones that people have been trying to explain this with is this. Who's underneath that mask? it is benjamin netanyahu this is the only reasonable conclusion that i think we could come to in this moment i i genuinely i mean i've tried to look back at it i tried to zoom in i did cross comparisons maybe i can put this one up a comparison of him making an appearance on fox news at a different time and i just like i i can't get around it there's nothing in my mind that tells me that this looks the same like okay maybe to some extent there's a lighting difference but like the details on the neck you know the deep versus the details on the neck in this one the way in the same outfit wearing the same outfit well i think it's a little bit different maybe maybe it is the same exact outfit but it looks like there's a t-shirt on a black t-shirt on under the masked outfit he's a lot shinier he's a lot smoother the faith that the head The eyes are set back.
1:09:51Ryan Grim:The eyes are set back. I don't know. I'm telling you guys. I'm telling you. I have no other... What would be the point of wearing a mask to look exactly like yourself? No, the idea, Ryan, is that he's been swapped out because maybe he wasn't towing the line they wanted him to tow anymore. So now they have brought in this masked impersonator. I don't know. This guy, like they can't bring on some other guy to just parrot the exact same talking points. I don't know. That's weird as hell. That's where it loses me. I have no explanation as to what would have motivated a fake, sophisticated mask to be worn in this context.
1:10:30Who's this guy? By the way, I don't watch. He's an former military. Allegedly retired former vice admiral. Allegedly. If you believe the mainstream media.
1:10:40Emily Jashinsky:If you believe the fake news media. To be clear, there is nothing in that video to suggest it is an accident of the lighting. There is something weird going on. I have no idea if it's a mask, but there's something weird going on. And Mac, I applaud your persistence. I'm doubling. I'm tripling down. I'm not backing down for my position. There's got to be the lighting. Or it's been, yeah, I don't know. Now we know Ryan is CIA. Ryan's been bought off. It's definitely one of those two things.
1:11:11Ryan Grim:Those are the only explanations. All right. Well, that's all that I got on this. I got no other explanations. Well, Mack, you pointed out at least they've upgraded from, what was it, their like Antifa super soldier that they used in multiple, who was also like a Mexican gang leader in a different segment. You got that one? I don't know how you would doubt this, Crystal, but here we have on the bottom Ramon Mundo Mendoza, Mexican mafia encyclopedia author. And then on the top, we have a former Antifa member and clearly, clearly different guys here giving a sophisticated testimony on both of these subjects.
1:11:45Emily Jashinsky:Should Lyle come back on?
1:11:47Ryan Grim:We may need to get Lyle back on for another appearance to evaluate the new masked man allegations. I preferred Crystal with the dog mask or whatever that was. Yeah, I don't know what that was. I'll see if I can get in touch. This mask never fails to amuse. It is a great mask. There you go. And it's really realistic. It's a poodle. It's a poodle. Kids Halloween from, I don't know, like four years ago has really come in handy here. That's an intense mask. It's a lot. You could be somebody's sleep paralysis demon with that.
1:12:23All right. Well, that's all that we got on this one. I don't know. You guys let us know in the comments what the hell's going on here.
1:12:28Ryan Grim:Yep. And Ryan, you want to pitch to your interview here with Dari Elisa? Yes. One major piece of news, the U.S. Immigration Service just announced that if you're applying for a green card, you have to first leave the country. which is a radical and fundamental change in our immigration policy. Completely. It seems almost intended to basically block the ability of anybody to get a green card. Wow, that's crazy. Because that's a lot of people who get green cards. I mean, a lot of that is, you know, people have married American citizens. And so that has a huge impact on, you know, obviously immigrants who want to be on the pathway to citizenship, but also to constraining the choices of Americans who, you know, fall in love, want to get married and want their spouse to be able to reside here with them and be citizens and participate in civic life.
1:13:20Right. And there's always there's been this talking point that, oh, you know, we want you to do it the right way, get in line, follow the rules. And we do support legal immigration. This is just absolutely trying to blow up the rules and make legal immigration impossible. It's just anti-immigration. Period.
1:13:40Emily Jashinsky:I was going to say, we should also mention, we teased at the top the Hunter Biden-Candice Owens interview. He does claim, I'll just say the timestamp, so if you're curious, you can go into it. It really starts around the one hour, 10 minute mark. One hour, 16 minute mark. He claims that there was an Israeli plot to kind of take him and his dad down. He claims that his dad was never part of the Epstein class, which was probably roughly true for like maybe the first 10 years of his career or something like that. But obviously changed anytime you're going to be the senator from Delaware.
1:14:12Ryan Grim:But he mentioned part of the Epstein class just supporting Israel's genocidal activities for the love of the game.
1:14:19Emily Jashinsky:But Crystal, Israel actually was so mad at Joe Biden for being a maverick, according to Hunter Biden. He was really under threat. So anyway, if people are interested.
1:14:32Ryan Grim:Barack Ravid told me the same thing. Yes, I heard that from Barack.
1:14:36Emily Jashinsky:So go start around. If you're curious of that part, start around the 110 mark of their conversation. but anyway so yes yesterday uh interviewed uh daryl darylisa avila chavalier who's a community organizer in harlem who's running against adriano ss bayat uh kind of long-time harlem machine politician who replaced uh charlie wrangle uh and she does not yet have the backing of uh mayor zorn momdani she's hoping to get it but apparently uh hassan piker is going to head out there. So the Piker bump is headed to her campaign pretty soon. And if she has any luck, Third Way will come in and condemn him and her and that she'll get the same result then that El-Sayed and Chris Rabb got when Third Way came after him and them.
1:15:28Emily Jashinsky:Hassan really is the Dem Tea Party's Glenn Beck. That's right. He needs a chalkboard. Turning into that for sure. He needs a chalkboard.
1:15:38All right. Joining us today to discuss her congressional race in a Harlem district against incumbent Adrienne Espyat is Dario-Lisa Chevalier, a community organizer, union member, and challenging an incumbent in New York City. Thank you so much for being here. Thanks so much for having me. All right. So I wanted to actually start by getting you to respond to some pretty interesting comments from Fran Leibovitz about the kind of tax policy and tax conversation that is rocking New York City, I think, in actually a good way, because I think they need to be a little bit uncomfortable over there. Some of the folks there do.
1:16:21So let me play Leibovitz and then get your take here. Every time someone suggests this, they say, I'm moving. Go. You know, they add nothing to New York. You know, in the olden days, in the 19th century, those robber barons, they employed people at least. Okay? They employed thousands, hundreds of thousands of people. All this money magic employs no one. It is no product. It has no, goodbye, go. We're moving to Florida, go. You know, we don't need you. You know, I mean, I know that guy. I mean, I don't know him, but I think you're talking about a guy named Ken Griffin, right? He has a$103 million apartment.
1:16:58First of all, what does that even mean? How can an apartment be$103 million? And when you have apartments that cost that much, it makes every apartment more expensive. So the$103 million apartment on 57th Street makes the studio apartment in the Bronx more expensive than it should be. So I think it's a very good idea. Yeah, so Mayor Bombadani famously put Ken Griffin in his ad about this pied -à-terre tax where, you know, if you don't live in your apartment and it's worth X amount of dollars, you're going to have to pay a little tiny portion extra. I'm curious for how it's playing in Harlem and what did you think of Fran's analysis there?
1:17:38Yeah, I mean, I think she's right. My dad always says New York is New York. And to mean that folks don't stay in New York because they pay lower taxes. They come to New York because they love the city. And so people, I think it's a bluff, right? They're asking us to call them on their bluff and we should tax them. We should show that when folks who make this amount of wealth are taxed, we can actually use those resources to reinvest in our community and make our communities thrive. And it's going to benefit everybody. You know, the fact that we are defunding our schools, that we're defunding our public sector, that has an impact on every single person in this community.
1:18:24and we are not giving our communities the opportunities for small businesses to thrive, right? When we have these corporations that, to Fran's point, aren't actually even employing the New Yorkers that live here and who need, you know, who need jobs to be able to pay the rent that continues to rise, to be able to pay the groceries that costs are rising for. And so, So, you know, I think so many of my friends, so many of my family and my neighbors are moving away because these costs are just unbearable. And the fact that our public sector on top of that is being stripped of the resources that it needs to be able to function, it is a recipe for disaster.
1:19:09And so Harlem has a kind of history of having members of Congress who are there forever. You know, there was the legendary 20th century congressman, Adam Clayton, Powell Jr. You had Charlie Rangel, who, you know, I had the privilege to cover when he was in Congress. And I say privilege because he was, you know, larger than life kind of character. Adrian Espyat has seemed, he seems more in line with life, not exactly a larger than life figure. But I'm curious kind of how the kind of Harlem establishment has evolved over the years and whether you think that it has kind of weakened to a position where a challenge like this, which in the past would have kind of been unthinkable, is actually possible.
1:19:57Yeah, I mean, I would, well, first of all, I think the fact that we are dealing with a different machine right now and in this seat, we're dealing with what Adriano Espaya calls his squadriano. It's one that is much weaker than folks assume. I think there is a lot of momentum on the ground, a lot of hunger for something very different. And to be clear, this district covers Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood, parts of the West Bronx, including Kingsbridge and Bedford Park. And so, you know, this is a community that has been represented over the last nine years by someone who has not shown up for various parts of this community, including Harlem, including East Harlem and Barrio, including parts of the Bronx and, you know, other parts of the district.
1:20:53And so, you know, for me, as somebody who has been organizing here for my entire adult life, who has tried to reach out to his office to support on the issues that matter to people here, I felt that absence. I felt the lack of leadership on the issues that really matter to folks here. And that's why I'm running, because, you know, when when folks say, OK, well, he's the head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus on these things. My experience has been that the head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus has been absent in our community. My experience has been that he has repeatedly funded ICE, repeatedly voted to send arms to Israel and not invested in our communities.
1:21:36My experience is that when my friend was kidnapped off the streets of this district by ICE, he turned our friends and his family away. And so what this district deserves and needs is someone who understands the issues that are affecting every single one of our neighbors and is actually willing to fight. This is an issue of a lack of leadership, a lack of vision for what our district needs and deserves and a willingness to fight for that vision. And so you've been endorsed by Justice Democrats, which is fresh off their victory in Philadelphia with the election of Democratic Socialist Chris Rabb.
1:22:19Have you sensed that producing any momentum since then? Like, are you hearing from more groups who are like, you know what, maybe this is like a ripe moment here? Yeah, I mean, I've made the argument from the moment we launched this campaign that this is an opportunity for the left to build the coalition necessary to take on right wing corporations and PACs, right, that have been having an outsized influence on our politics. This is an opportunity for the left to really push back on a politic that has really done a number on our democracy and to actually take our democracy back for the working people of this country.
1:23:05We know that this is a race that we can win if we get voters out. And so that's been our goal is to make sure that we are telling folks that there is a primary on June 23rd and getting them to come out to the polls. because for too long, we've had leadership that is more than happy to allow people to stay home on election day. Instead of engaging people to come out and be part of their electoral process and part of their government, we have decided that we're going to run a completely different campaign and make sure that we are building the coalition necessary so that we can actually engage voters and the people of this district in their government, not just on election day, but beyond that, so that we can have those relationships, that coalition, once in office, to actually make sure that we're governing for and with our community.
1:23:58And Democratic Socialists of America, of course, has also endorsed your campaign and was behind the campaign of Mayor Mamdani. You know, he famously dissuaded a primary challenge against Hakeem Jeffries. Has he has he dissuaded you at all from running? And do you think that it's possible that he may actually kind of intervene and endorse here against an incumbent? Because, you know, they're very difficult kind of coalitional and delegation politics at play here. On the other hand, you know, he's trying to build power for a DSA based kind of working class movement. What are you hearing from the kind of Mamdani orbit?
1:24:40it? Yeah, I mean, the mayor is a very busy man. He hasn't dissuaded me from running. I think a lot of what we've built our campaign around is actually the momentum that we built last year. I started canvassing in February for him and his campaign, and I spent almost a year hearing at the doors about how hungry people were for a different type of politics, making sure that we are actually delivering for working class people here in this city. And I'm running for Congress because I understand that it's going to take leadership at all levels of government to be able to actually deliver for all of the working people of New York City.
1:25:21And, you know, I'm just deeply grateful to all the members of our coalition, to every volunteer, every person that has come out to support our campaign, because it's because of them that we've been able to build the momentum that we have. And, you know, I'm really excited about what we're building because I think that for so many people, this is an opportunity to show that last year wasn't a fluke, that these politics not only are popular, but that they work and that we can build government for working class people. And for a lot of people watching, they'd be like, well, maybe not this program, but most programs, they'd say, you know, what's the difference?
1:25:59It's a Democratic district. You know, you're going to vote on most bills, similarly to how Adriano Espiyot might vote. There's be some differences on the edges. But it's not that big of a deal. So what would be the fundamental difference if the district sent you to Washington rather than Espiyot? Yeah, you know, I think we're in a really critical point in our country's history. And it matters in November, not only that we send Democrats to Congress, but the type of Democrats that we send to Congress. Do we have Democrats who say they're progressive, but then vote to send about$8 billion to ICE?
1:26:39Do we have Democrats who are voting to send more arms to Israel as it engages in a genocide? Do we have Democrats who are supporting the privatization of our public schools and expanding charter schools? while many of our public schools lack air conditioner in their gymnasiums? Do we want a representative who, when constituents go to their office, are told that they can't support them on some of the hardest days of their lives? And I'm an organizer. That has been what I've been doing my entire adult life, is being with people on some of the hardest days of their lives, whether it was helping to get them out of ice detention or are supporting them through an instance of police brutality or whatever the case, right?
1:27:25Those are the contexts that I have been showing up in for my community. And those are also skills that you developed over the course of organizing that we hope to bring to Congress, the halls of power, to make sure that we're organizing inside and outside to actually deliver for our people here. And so, you know, I think if we're serious about winning in November and making sure that we're taking back the House, it matters what kind of Democrats we're electing in the primaries. It matters that we're making sure that they are people who are fighting for working class people across the country. And if you were elected and Hakeem Jeffries runs for leader, as he said he would, would you would you support him?
1:28:06Yeah, I mean, I guess we have to take it one step at a time because I'm very focused on my primary right now. And in order for that to even be a question we get to, I have to first win this primary and then also we have to win in November. And again, I think we can get to those questions as a community, right? But we can't do that if we don't come out on June 23rd. So you started door knocking last February. So that means for the last year and a half almost, you've been talking directly to voters about their political concerns. And I'm curious if you've seen any evolution in what rises to the surface over that time, because obviously a lot has changed since the Trump administration has been in power that entire time.
1:29:00but they've really, you know, executed on their agenda in a very aggressive way. So I'm curious what you've heard about that from people, but just in general, like what are you hearing from regular people about how they're feeling about the state of the city and the country? Yeah, no, I think what we've heard at the doors is more or less consistent with what I was hearing at the doors in February of last year. And that's because, you know, we've had leadership in this position, but across the country that has is the very same establishment politics that has gotten us to this moment. Right. Where our rents keep rising, where our children are hungry.
1:29:48We have over 100 ,000 New York City public school kids who are homeless. Right. And we continue to disinvest from our public infrastructure, making the lives of New Yorkers so much harder every single day. And again, it can't just be elect one person and hope for the best. It needs to be a new wave of representatives on all levels of government that can actually bring forth the vision of New York City that works for working class people. But what we're seeing at the doors is that people care about housing. That's why we're running for housing for all, to make sure that it is affordable and a fixture of this, affordable housing is a fixture of the city and this country.
1:30:27To make sure that we are abolishing ICE and creating pathways to citizenship. Because in a district with so many immigrant families, we need to be making sure that we're protecting our communities. And, you know, overall, we're fighting to invest in our babies, not bombs, because all the things that our children need are the things that make our communities thrive. And one of the things that breaks my heart most is the way that my a lot of my friends have moved out of the city because they want kids and they can't afford to have them in the city because our schools are so defunded because, you know, our libraries are struggling.
1:31:01And so making sure that we're actually investing in our kids and expanding the child tax credit and funding schools, public schools from cradle to college. All of those things are the things that will really push us to make sure that that we have a community here in New York City, not just people who are isolated workers to the benefit of corporations instead of the benefit of our communities here. And the playgrounds. I'm a big pro playground guy. How are the playgrounds in your district? Because, like, sometimes you've got a playground, but it's not usable or safe for kids. The equipment's not kept up.
1:31:38There's garbage, whatever. Like, what's the situation in the district playground-wise as a parent? That's my overarching concern sometimes. In some of the public parks, you know, my read on them is that, you know, there are many that are maintained well, but there are not that many parks per se, right? And so a lot of the playgrounds that exist in this district are actually in NYCHA communities. And NYCHA has been so deeply disinvested from that, you know, many of these buildings are in complete disrepair and just really undignified conditions. And so many of the children in our community, those are the conditions that they have to live in.
1:32:22And the conditions of their playground reflect that. We need to invest in NYCHA, not only because we owe it to the over 500 ,000 New Yorkers who live there to to actually make their homes dignified homes, but also because it is, you know, it is one of the largest, this district has one of the largest concentration of public housing units in the country. And that's an opportunity for us to introduce a Green New Deal for public housing, to make sure that we are creating good union jobs for people and preserving the legacy of what NYCHA was supposed to be, which was supposed to be a pathway to the middle class, not a stepping stone into market rate housing, but a fixture of the city's affordable housing programs.
1:33:10And so, you know, there are so many ways that we could be investing in our kids here in the city. But right now, as it stands, we have representatives who would rather send our tax dollars towards war and ICE instead of reinvesting back in our communities to make sure that we have the resources to lead dignified lives. Well, Daria Lisa, Avila Chevalier, I think you can learn more, Daria Lisa for congress.com. Thank you so much for joining us again. The primary is June 23rd. Really appreciate you being here. Thanks so much for having me. Take care. You got it. When people turn to telehealth or weight loss, they're looking for real support.
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From the publisher
Krystal, Ryan, Emily and Mac discuss the US burning thru stockpiles to protect Israel, DNC autopsy revealed as humiliating disaster, Fetterman's secret Israel handler exposed, AI bubble could decimate economy, Fox guest wearing face mask conspiracy.
Rohit Chopra: https://x.com/ChopraUSA
Darializa Avila Chevalier: https://www.darializaforcongress.com/
Mac: https://www.youtube.com/GoodPoliticGuy
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