5/26/26: Trump Goes To War For Prediction Markets, Hasan Piker Subpoenaed By Feds Over Cuba Trip

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2:27Turning now to prediction markets under potential legal threat, but definitely getting a major assist from the U.S. government. Let's put this up here on the screen. Minnesota has now become the first state to ban prediction markets. The governor signed the nation's first law operating in the state, and in response, the Trump administration has sued. This will now tee up a massive legal battle over the crackdown on Kalshi and Pali market. The new state law makes it a crime to host or advertise a prediction market, which defines as a system that lets consumers place a wager on future outcomes like sports, elections, live entertainment, someone's word choice, and world affairs.

3:04Why do we have markets on those anyways? The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets like VPNs that would allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban. And it would force a prediction market site like Calci and Paula Market to leave the state or face felony charges. The law takes effect in August. So here is what the person who introduced the measure said. We as a state should decide how best and what regulations we think should attach to gambling to protect public safety, to protect our kids. The law has a carve out for event contracts that serve as an insurance policy in the event of harm or loss sustained and for the purchase of securities and other commodities.

3:44Now, here's where the Trump administration comes in. And this gets technical, so everybody stick with us. D2, let's put it up here on the screen. The Trump administration is now suing Minnesota over the prediction market ban. They say, here's the DOJ, Minnesota's attempt to criminalize derivatives contracts is precisely what Congress sought to prevent. If Minnesota's law is permitted to go into effect, the exchanges that offer these longstanding contracts, as well as those who partner with them, can be prosecuted as felons. This is a flagrant and unprecedented incursion into the commission's exclusive regulatory sphere must be preliminarily and permanently enjoined.

4:26That means the Trump administration is that prediction markets are only in the federal domain and must be only regulated by the CFTC. However, don't forget, the CFTC is not just suing Minnesota. They are suing even red states, Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, Wisconsin, many with Republican governors or state legislators and others. which had advanced these measures, trying to ban these prediction markets because they allege that it is gambling while the CFTC that says that it is a derivatives market, which is long held. Now, I just want everybody to ask a very basic question. Have you been able to trade on what 60 minutes is going to say for a longstanding time?

5:06Yes or no question. Have you been able to trade on what color the dildo is that will be thrown on a WNBA? the most lurid example, but there are many. Have you been able to trade on whether the Ayatollah is going to be removed or not? Whether Taylor Swift is gonna get pregnant. Yeah, or whether Taylor Swift is gonna get pregnant. I mean, I could go on forever. The Bad Bunny halftime performances, the Maduro raid. Yeah, when a particular special operations raid is going to happen. What was the one that we covered here? The guy with the weather, hot air? Oh yeah, at the Paris airport, at the Charles de Gaulle airport, where he was betting on the temperature there and then was using a hairdryer to heat up the sensor so that he could win.

5:47Yeah. So this is what the CFTC wants us to believe. They want us to believe that these prediction markets are an extension of longstanding derivatives and commodity trades. And I actually went and did a lot of research. CFTC, why does it exist? What is the basis for it? The entire basis for the CFTC and for regulation period on financial derivatives is that we allow, always have, derivatives markets on things that we believe are important to the public good. So the history of the CFTC and of commodities are things like oil or things like corn, meat, futures contract, coffee, you know, any of these consumable goods.

6:28Now, why do we allow that? Because it leads to a lot of wild speculation. It allows market price and lock-in contracts for producers to be able to produce their goods that they bring to market, which we all agree generally is society. We need a meat contract. We need an oil contract. We need corn contracts. We have lived for centuries without prediction markets on what I'm going to say on this show or who's going to beat the spread or 18-leg parlays. Yes, these are real things that are offered by Calci. 18-leg parlays on how the Knicks were going to perform last night. And not just are they going to win or not.

7:05Are they going to win by X amount of points? Are you going to shoot? is this particular player? Who's going to get how many free throws? Right. How many free throws? What the halftime, whatever is going to look like? Who gets X amount of playing time? Massive insider trading risk. But more importantly for this whole discussion, it's gambling. And why have we always separated legally and even rhetorically gambling from commodities markets? Now, often they resemble each other, but what is the difference? Gambling is not about social utility, which we allow. We allow this legalized form of commodities future trading because it's important to us as a society to be able to function.

7:45What societal good comes from trading on these damn markets? Nothing. Literally nothing. Farmers came to them and said, hey, we like to bet on weather as a hedge against if there's issues with the crops or whatever. Okay, put a carve out in. Got it. Social utility, I see it. All right, we'll do that. And that's the version that's passed. Of course, the Trump administration is still claiming, oh, this is bad for farmers, blah, blah, blah. But I mean, just just think about it logically. 80 plus percent of the bets that are made on Polymarket and Calci are sports bets. Like it's, you know, blatant gambling.

8:19And for, you know, forever, states have had the right to decide when and how and whether they're going to permit that type of gambling in their state. And so what the Trump administration here is saying is you don't get to have that right anymore. You don't get to have that say at the state level. And this is the party that's supposed to be those, you know, small government, local control party. They're saying, no, as a federal government, we have decided that we are going to open the floodgates to gambling on Taylor Swift's pregnancy date and dildos at the WNBA game in every state. And it really doesn't matter what you or your citizens, what their elected representatives think about any of it, because we are profiting from it.

8:58And I mean, that's and that's the bottom line is, you know, both with the and we can put this tear shoot from The New York Times up on the screen, D3, which is a fantastic deep dive into the CFTC and the way they say how prediction markets and crypto firms steamrolled a watchdog agency. And at every turn, the reason why the floodgates have been open for crypto, which is rife with all sorts of scams and schemes and rug pulls, including rug pulls pulled by the president and the first lady of the United States and prediction markets, is because there is a financial benefit for the Trump family directly.

9:35And there are financial benefits for Trump allies directly. Remember, Trump was originally opposed to crypto. He thought it was bad for the U.S. dollar. He was like, no, it's a competitor to the US dollar. I don't like it. And then what happened? Then he got a bunch of crypto money and he got sold on, hey, you can have your own crypto coin. And now the vast bulk of his wealth comes from crypto. And so lo and behold, not only do they really not regulate it whatsoever, but a bunch of people who had been previously indicted for various fraudulent activities regarding crypto had been let off the hook by Trump.

10:12You know, if you look at the, you know, the ties here, they have a great chart. We can put this in in post in this New York Times piece where you've got, OK, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and then you've got some actions that they've taken. So they fast track the application of an offshoot of Gemini. This is the Winklevoss twins who are Trump allies, whose founders backed American Bitcoin, which is tied to Eric Trump. They sidelined staff who questioned Crypto.com, a business partner of Trump Media and Technology. And of course, those companies are all connected to the Trump family.

10:43They approved a request by Polymarket after investment by 1789 Capital, which is who? Don Jr. Don Jr. is involved with both Polymarket and with Couchy. So of course, they're going to go to bat for them. Of course, they're going to let them do whatever they want, wherever they want. And so while white collar fraud enforcement is at an all time low with this administration, where they will draw the line and where they will go in and fight and where they will try to push back is any state, any political entity that says, we actually want to draw some boundaries here. We actually don't want to submit to this anywhere, anytime, anything gambling on demand, which has proven to be extremely deleterious to the financial status, especially of young men or the group that has been preyed upon the most and most susceptible.

11:33And look, this belies even the basic statistics. If you are gambling on these platforms, which is what they are, you're going to lose. The vast majority of the winners, the vast majority of the profits go to an extremely select small group of traders. I was reading recently, in fact, one of my friends even told me like Susquehanna, one of those very sophisticated trading desks, they have a sports desk now, specifically as sharp bettors to go in and to find inefficiencies in various different lines to hammer them and to basically take your money. So look, remember in CalShe, this is one of the most nefarious things about it.

12:08One of the things that they say is that reason why they're better than DraftKings, and this is a fair argument, so let's interrogate it a little bit, is that they don't set the line, is that they're the market makers, right? On both sides of the trade, they take a small percentage of the fee. Now, remember though, that because if you take a percentage of the trade, that means how do they make money? They want you to trade a lot. So that's number one. In fact, they want you to get basically addicted to trading. Now, second though, is that while a casino will set the line, like plus or minus whatever on a game, minus 110 or something like that for the spread, and then move that to hedge their own risk, the Cal sheet is sitting there and offering the ability for a market to be able to take your line as well.

12:48Well, what that means is that with these two people on the other side of the trade is that there's a heavy amount of influence and market making that happens for the people who are taking the action. And from, again, I know this sounds complicated and I'm still a relative layman on how this all works. It's very complicated. But what it means is, from what I understand, is it gives these sharps the ability to not only hedge a lot of their own betting risk from the traders, but also to offer different odds based upon the amount that you are betting in terms of a trade, which is not necessarily the same as a sports bet or a casino.

13:26So anyways, What I have seen generally is that with all of this amount of influence, the vast majority of the retail normal trader is losing on these prediction markets. And while their argument is, well, the vast majority of day traders lose money. Yeah, that's true. That's one reason I opposed the Trump administration lowering the threshold for$25 ,000 for day trading. Because most people who are doing it are fucking idiots and are losing all their money. But there is no such thing as there is, let's say, with the S &P 500 or Vanguard or any of that, like with prediction markets, where if you are just a passive investor in these index funds, you'll make money over the long run.

14:09There is no even artifice for the average person to invest or trade on a prediction market where they're going to make money in the long run. It literally doesn't exist. It exists purely to siphon off gains from desperate people, basically, who are on there. What was that article that we had where the guy took out a loan and then bet it all on Calci? I mean, first of all, what an idiot. But second, like, okay, we recognize we have a lot of idiots in our society, so we have to protect them. At least I do. That's what I think. And so what do we do? We're like, hey, you can't have payday loans because that was the argument for it.

14:46The argument for payday loans was, well, if people are willing to take it, then why shouldn't they be able to offer that service? And we're all like, yeah, I don't know. It's usury. It's a Lindy thing that even though it may exist and even supported supposedly by the free market, we all think that's bad. And so we don't want people to be exploited that way because we recognize the power imbalance. Well, why can't we recognize it here? And it's basically corruption. There's just no other story behind it. That's exactly right. Yeah, and this is kind of Grimless, but D6 up on the screen. So Axios did this poll of like what companies people trust.

15:25And Polymarket and FanDuel and Calci and whatever, like they did decently well. So they found they had a higher reputation ranking at number 45, Polymarket specifically, than companies like Verizon, Ford, Target, Uber, Disney, and Bank of America. it. Now, I mean, I might say none of the above in terms of trusting any of these companies. You know, so I'm not sure how indicative this is. But they had this quote here. They said, 64 % of Gen Z and millennials say the only realistic way to build significant wealth is, quote, alternative methods like crypto, gambling, or retail stocks. That's what their poll found.

16:04two thirds of basically people under the age of 44 said the only chance I have is gambling. That's it. That is my shot. And that's what we've been talking about. I mean, you talk about they're preying on desperate people. Well, the whole generation is desperate, or that's all we have is desperate people basically. And they're working, slaving away. Things are getting more expensive. Housing prices are out of control. Never going to be able to own anything. And they're like, what have I got to lose? I'm going to take out that loan. I'm going going to bet it on Calci on some sports team that I know something about.

16:36And I'm going to hope for the best because it's my only freaking shot. Like, that's what we're talking about here. It is this dystopian as that is the American dream today. That's it. There's no work hard, play by the rules, go to college. No, it's hope that you have some insider knowledge on some bet that you can leverage so that you don't have to suffer and struggle and never own anything in your entire life. That is the American dream today. That's the reality. This is where, you Why do you do so many segments? Because I know. I know the truth. I'm like, look, people, we talk about it all the time, desperation, et cetera.

17:09I understand that. There's still some personal agents. We got to spread the word, all right? How can we live in a society where people are trusting Polymarket, CalShe, and DraftKings as much as Verizon, Target, and Numer. Like, listen, I get it, all right? I've had bad experiences with all of these major companies. But, you know, Bank of America is a very highly regulated enterprise. Yes, they will rip you off, et cetera, and there's a lot of structural reasons. but they're not explicitly rooting for you to lose or creating the entire thing. You can still get decently wealthy by just using one of these random stock exchanges and just putting your money passively into the S &P 500.

17:45And yet, oh, Robinhood and day trading and DraftKings. I understand it at a sociological level, but it is sick. It's beyond sick that we even have this level of trust in these companies. And this is also where predatory advertising comes into play. Calci running ads for teenagers or has in the past, allegedly, from what I've seen, which I know that they've denied and they're saying that they're not running them anymore, being like, oh, it's an easy way for you to make money. DraftKings and FanDuel have the most expensive advertising money can buy for every sports season about the various pick-ems and how they'll go free$100.

18:24If you bet five, you win 200. You're like, really? You're going to give$200 for free? You think a multibillion-dollar company just made all that money by giving you$200 after you win five? Or maybe they know what they're doing. But everybody falls for it. And it's because, like you said, they're desperate. They're just beyond desperate. So I don't know. I just know that I think in the long run, I hope it gets banned. And I think eventually it will, maybe 10 years or so from now. But the gap of the damage that will be wrought in the interim, it's immense. I think it already is if you look at the amount of bankruptcies and other things that happen, the amount of domestic violence that happens as a result of legalization of gambling.

19:06It's statistically proven. Look it up if you want to. You can look at domestic violence, alcohol consumption, bankruptcies. The aggregate, I think, borrowing rate, like debt, goes up in every state that's legalized gambling. That's right. Again, the vast, vast majority of people who bet on these platforms, you will lose. If you've been betting for more than six months and you're not limited, that means you're a loser. Congratulations. They're telling you, you are a loser. Thank you for continuing to bet with us. But that's how the rules are written as of right now. Yeah. And I don't know the legal ins and outs, but it would not surprise me if the Trump administration succeeds in the suit to block Minnesota.

19:43Sorry, I should have clarified that as well. They're going to win, from what I understand. because of the way that they have defined, the CFTC gets a broad amount of deference whenever it comes to derivatives, contracts, regulation, especially with the current composition of the U.S. Supreme Court. You've got a very libertarian Supreme Court on the side of money. And then after that, it's over. Gambling is now legal. Like the idea of the states had any influence at all, after the court rules, it will be legal in all 50 states. So all these tribal casino, remember they beat the sports books in California.

20:12Not enough people talk about that. It went to the referendum And Californians actually went against sports gambling, which is crazy. Texas as well. So two of the most populous states in the union do not have legal sports gambling. They're like the white whale of the gambling industry and of Calci. And DraftKings actually like it that way. Or sorry, Calci and Polymarket like it that way because they want to be the only option. Soon it will be legal nationwide after the Supreme Court rules. And then we'll really see what gambling America looks like. Okay, let's talk about Hassan Parker. Miss satisfying breads and pastas and want to add protein without going overboard on calories?

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22:50We can put this up on the screen. They are claiming that Hassan Piker, who they described as Marxist political influencer, and Code Pink co-founder Susan Medea Benjamin have been subpoenaed as part of a wider investigation into whether U.S. organizations and leaders violated U.S. laws and sanctions in supporting Cuba's communist regime. Again, this is according to Fox News Digital. They also published some like paparazzi style photos of Hassan like walking his dog for some reason. In any case, what they point to here is allegations that they stayed at a banned or sanctioned hotel that Americans are not allowed to stay at.

23:28But we happen to know, because our own Ryan Grimm was also on that trip, that that is not remotely the case. So joining us now to talk about all of this is of course Ryan Grimm. Great to see you, Ryan. Good to see you, Ryan. How are you guys doing? Good. Good, man. Have you been subpoenaed? I have not been subpoenaed. But Hassan and Madia Benjamin have actually also not been subpoenaed here. So what are we thinking about this news? Right. Yeah, I talked to both of them. Neither has been subpoenaed. And so the Fox News report is just factually incorrect. Like, if you're going to subpoena somebody, you subpoena them.

24:02Right. So you have not been served by the federal government. They have not been served by the federal government. um hasan reacted to this ryan saying it's bullshit and actually they didn't stay you guys didn't stay in the wrong hotel let's take a listen we'll get your reaction i'm not gonna lie to you guys it's it's not great the news is not great okay um i mean it's bullshit we didn't actually stay at the wrong hotel that was just something that people made up on twitter except for an American citizen who recently did violate OFAC and stayed at a hotel that America does not allow American citizens to stay in.

24:41It wasn't me, though. It was Nick Shirley. Literally, the hotel that Nick Shirley was in was actually on the state sponsor of terrorism list. Okay? Okay. So, Ryan, the basis, as I understand, God, I never thought I'd know so much about Cuban hotels, is you guys stayed in the hotel, which is allowed. Right. Right? Yeah. Nick Shirley stayed in a luxury hotel, quote unquote, which is under OFAC sanctioned. OFAC being Office of Foreign Asset Control. It's a famous, I forget exactly what hotel he stayed in, but it's famously sanctioned. Okay, famously sanctioned. It's like a very well-known Cuban government-owned hotel that has been around for many decades and is quite explicitly listed as one you cannot stay in.