5/28/26: John Mearsheimer Cooks Neocons On Iran, Russia Ukraine War Escalates, Pope Leo Warns About AI

0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. What if your soda actually did something for you? Introducing Sky Pop Protein Soda. Sky Pop Protein Soda has 10 grams of complete protein, zero sugar, and real delicious soda taste. Sky Pop Protein Soda. Reach for the sky. Get your Sky Pop Protein Soda now at Target, Walmart, or Kroger. What's up, y 'all? Summer's got a different tempo. Everything's a little looser, brighter. One plan turns into another. You hear something, you stay a little longer. Next thing you know, you're somewhere you didn't plan to be. It's those in-between moments. That's where the ideas hit.

0:35Conversations stretch out. Little memories sneak up on you. Sometimes, it's just about what's in your hand. That color. That chill. The new tropical butterfly refresher from Starbucks. Guava and passion fruit flavors with mango pineapple flavored pearls. Yeah, that feels like summer before you even taste it. Funny how one small stop becomes the best part of the day. Start your summer rhythm with Starbucks. Try the new Tropical Butterfly Refresher from Starbucks. When people turn to healthcare for weight loss, they're looking for real support. That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com.

1:15Orderly Meds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and terzepatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience. and all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research. Ask questions. Then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer. That's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details. Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show.

1:48This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com. Very excited now to be joined by our great friend, Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago. Sir, it's great to see you.

2:15Thanks for joining us again. I'm glad to be here. Thank you for inviting me. Always. So, sir, you recently took part in a debate with your co-author, Dr. Stephen Walt, against Mike Pompeo, former Secretary of State, and Victoria Nuland, famous for many reasons for being one of the preeminent neocons and very involved in what happened in the color revolution in Ukraine. But there was one particular moment we wanted your reaction to of your exchange here with Nuland and Pompeo on the issue of Iran. Let's take a listen. We'll get your reaction. This is what human decency demands. You don't let a radical regime close off the global economy by firing Shahid missiles into nations that did nothing.

2:57They're firing into civilians in the United Arab Emirates even just this week. That's just not something that the world can accept. And so this monster is worthy of the hunt. You do know, Mike, that we started the war. No, absolutely not. Absolutely not. Oh, no. No, no, no. They weren't firing those missiles until Israel and the United States attacked Iran. You do understand. Welcome to 1979 when the revolutionary regime began to kill Europeans. You do know that we overthrew the democratically elected government in 1954. Just for the record, you were talking about this. You don't think Iran has, you think Iran's forgotten about that?

3:38No, I suspect they've not. You don't think Iran remembers that we supported Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war? I know this. You think they've forgotten about this? I know this. Other countries have history. Do you think Iran is a monster? No. Okay. Okay, there you go. I don't think there's... I'm glad I don't live there. I think many countries do many bad things, including my own. And I wouldn't call the United States a monster. Do you also remember that we wouldn't have had October 7th if we hadn't had Iranian support for Hamas? I agree. We wouldn't have had October 7th if we'd gotten peace in the Middle East.

4:14And that's a much longer story. It is. And every single U.S. president has tried and will continue to. Not very hard. But it is very important to emphasize there's no evidence that Iran even knew about October 7th, much less positive. Oh, my goodness. Oh, my goodness. I'm sure it is lovely to live where you live and believe that. There's no evidence in the public record of that. Oh, my goodness. Wow, the smirk, sir, from Victoria Nuland, whenever you bring up the genuine fact that there is literally no evidence of all of that. What's your broad takeaway here? We haven't gotten to talk to you since that debate aired.

4:52I think that in terms of facts and logic, that we beat them at almost every turn. And I think that's reflected in their response to my point that there was no evidence that Iran was involved in the events of October 7th. I mean, they didn't say, here are the facts that show you're wrong, or here is the report that you should read that explains why you're wrong. They just laughed at me and made fun of me. And that tells you, I believe, that they didn't have the facts on their side. And in terms of the points that Steve made, they had no refutation for those facts because there is no refutation for those facts.

5:32What Steve said was true. And he could have even gone further and pointed out that last June the Iranians were negotiating in good faith and out of the blue the Israelis attacked them and then we attacked them. And then this February, on February 28th, the Iranians were negotiating again in good faith, and we, not them, started a war. We attacked them. We tried to decapitate and succeeded at decapitating the regime. So the idea that the Iranians are these sort of mindless aggressors who are constantly starting wars and doing all these evil things against the good guys, Israel and the United States, is, as both of you know, a laughable argument.

6:16Yeah, I was watching the full debate this morning. I haven't quite gotten all the way through it. But one of the things that I thought was really noteworthy is, you know, your two neo-con opponents. Victoria Nuland doesn't even support the war with Iran. So clearly she thinks this is not going well. And Pompeo does support it, but he believes that we're right now in a very poor position. Of course, his answer is we just need to do more war and then that will work it all out. But to me, that was very telling that neither of them could really defend the current status quo and the level of disaster that the Iran war has created for the United States.

6:54Yeah, I would also point out to you that Victoria Nuland made it clear that she disagreed with Pompeo when he, as Secretary of State, helped President Trump pull us out of the JCPOA. She said that we should have stayed in the JCPOA. She said it had flaws, but those flaws could have been fixed, and we should have used it as a foundation to build a better agreement. And that is actually a fundamental disagreement between the two of them. So I think it was quite clear that although they both agree on a lot of issues, they disagree on a number of important issues. With regard to the subject of Iran, there's no question.

7:37It's a disaster. We have no sort of theory of victory at this point. There's no strategy that anybody can point to that will allow us to pull our chestnuts out of the fire. And although Pompeo was a huge supporter of the Iran war, he wrote this op-ed for Fox News on February 28th that talks in very glowing terms about how the war is going to evolve and what a wonderful move it is by President Trump to start this war. Nevertheless, given how it's gone south, he has no way of fixing the problem. He has no solution. Yeah, that was just the real—all they had was, well, that's why we have to do more.

8:26That's what it ultimately came down to. It was really ironic, I think, actually, to see them put in that position where ultimately neither could defend how disastrous the current status quo is. Obviously, Israel was something that was also hovering over the entire discussion, its own influence on the United States. Well, here we have a very recent comment from Ben Gavir of Israel. Can we put C2 up here just to get your reaction, sir? Here, Ben Gavir says Israel will not allow Trump to make a deal with Iran. And this here you have a member of the literally Israeli government of the security cabinet saying that they will not allow the United States to pursue this deal with Iran in the midst of all of these negotiations and firing and continued alleged ceasefires.

9:15What do you make of that comment? Well, it's very important to understand that the deal that will be cut, assuming we get a deal will be a disastrous deal for Israel. Israel started this war with a number of goals. None of them have been achieved. And furthermore, Iran is going to end up controlling the Strait of Hormuz. And furthermore, it looks like if the deal is cut, that Iran's economic future looks much brighter than its economic past. This is disastrous for Israel, and Israel wants to do everything it can to undermine the deal. This is why the Israelis are bombing away in Lebanon. This is the principal way they have of undermining any deal.

10:12And what Ben Gavir is basically saying is we don't like the deal at all. It's disastrous from our point of view, and we will make sure there is no deal. And I think he is, in effect, saying that, you know, we control the United States and we'll make it impossible for Trump to strike a deal. Do you think that they will succeed in that? Not only do you have, you know, escalated bombing in Lebanon, we can actually put this New York Times tear sheet up on the screen, that the Lebanese are resigned to a long war, even if the U.S. and Iran do make a deal. This is something that the Iranians have said from the beginning is unacceptable to them, that they want the war to end on all fronts.

10:50You also have Trump making some wild statements, starting to blow up the Omanis. If they do anything to have control or share control of the Strait of Hormuz, you have an entire neocon freakout here in the U.S. of all sorts of influencers, people who have had the ear of the White House saying, no, no, no, you can't stop now. This would be too disastrous, et cetera. So do you think that we are close to some sort of, you know, true conclusion to this war? Well, you want to understand that we're talking first about getting a ceasefire in place and opening the straits. That's the first step in the process.

11:30And then once that's done, you'll have negotiations on the nuclear issue, on the Strait of Hormuz, on sanctions, on reparations, on missiles. There are just all sorts of issues floating around in here that have to be dealt with. A lot of moving parts, to put it in slightly different language. But up front, what we're trying to do now is just create a meaningful ceasefire. And that means, again, shutting down the war to include Lebanon and opening the strait. And the problem is that the Israelis do not want us to stop the war in Lebanon. And they don't want us to stop the war in Lebanon because they want to conquer territory in Lebanon.

12:16They want to defeat Hezbollah. But also because they see that as the ideal means for undermining any kind of agreement. And they don't want an agreement. The Israelis want to go back to the bombing campaign. They want the war to restart again in a meaningful way. And of course, President Trump doesn't want this at all. Trump wants to cut a deal. He understands that he has no theory of victory here, and he's got to cut a deal to put an end to this. But the Israelis want to prevent him from doing that. And Lebanon is the key lever that they have over him. And of course, they have the lobby and the war hawks in the United States who will back up Israel at every turn.

12:59Yeah, Professor, one of the things that we were really shocked by this morning was this comment from Trump saying that he was threatening to blow up Oman if they do not abide by U.S. demands of opening the Straits of Hormuz. Let's take a listen. We'll get your reaction. No, the straits are going to be open to everybody. It's international waters. Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it. We'll watch over it, but nobody's going to control it. That's part of the negotiation that we have. They would like to control it. Nobody's going to control it. It's international waters. And Oman will behave just like everybody else, and we'll have to blow them up.

13:36They understand that. They'll be fine. We'll have to blow them up. I mean, how is this going to affect our regional alliances? We've done so much damage to our regional alliances already, number one. And number two, Trump just talks like this all the time so that it's not as shocking as one would find it to be if someone like President Biden or President Bush had said this. I mean, this is sort of par for the course for President Trump. So I think in the final analysis, it doesn't matter. The Omanis probably just rolled their eyes, just like everybody else in the United States and in the Gulf did.

14:17The fact is that we're in deep trouble in the Gulf. Before the war, on February 27th, it looked like we had a formidable alliance structure. We had bases all over the region, and our allies, our Gulf allies, all thought that we would provide security for them. They thought that our security umbrella that was over their heads was a reliable one. But the events since February 28th have shown that that was not the case, that the United States could not protect that those U.S. bases in the region were vulnerable, and that moving forward they have to think seriously about how to provide for their own security and not rely on the United States in any meaningful way.

15:05Because they have now seen what happened when they relied on the United States. They got clobbered. And there is always a threat these days that they'll be eliminated as functioning countries. if the war really heats up and the Iranians go after their desalination plants and their energy infrastructure. What if your soda actually did something for you? Introducing Sky Pop Protein Soda. Sky Pop Protein Soda has 10 grams of complete protein, zero sugar, and real delicious soda taste. Sky Pop Protein Soda. Reach for the sky. Get your Sky Pop Protein Soda now at Target, Walmart, or Kroger. When people turn to health care for weight loss, they're looking for real support.

15:46That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com. Orderly Meds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and terzepatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience. And all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research. Ask questions. Then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer. That's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze.

16:21Baja Mar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues, Jean Batiste's all-new jazz club, the Caribbean's most luxurious casino, and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like our 15-acre tropical water park, wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course, and so much more. Visit Bahamar.com today. Professor, while we have you, we also wanted to talk to you about the Ukraine war, which grinds on. And as far as I can tell, the front lines are more or less stuck. The Ukrainians have made very effective use of drone warfare, which has helped them overcome some of their manpower disadvantage.

17:02We can put D1 up on the screen. There is some concern, and this is a Wall Street Journal article laying out the case, that Putin could expand the war beyond Ukraine, striking inside of Europe. You have also, Kiev has been striking inside of Russia. You've had Russia escalating attacks directly on the city of Kiev. So just give us a little bit of an update of where the war stands. And if you think that this is a realistic possibility that's being laid out here in the Wall Street Journal. Well, I think you have to separate the war on the ground from the air war. And when I talk about the air war, I'm talking about the strategic bombing where the Ukrainians are using drones and missiles to strike deep into Russia.

17:49And the Russians, of course, are doing the same thing vis-a-vis Ukraine. That's the air war. And then there's the war on the ground. There's no question that with the coming of drones, it's very difficult to make rapid progress on the ground. But the Russians are nevertheless making progress in Ukraine. The idea that Ukraine has turned the tide on the battlefield and is rolling the Russians back, or will someday roll the Russians back, is not a plausible argument. The Russians are winning on the ground. And you want to remember that they've already conquered 20%, roughly 20 % of Ukrainian territory, and they're not going to give that territory up.

18:34Ukraine is never going to recover that 20 % that it's already lost. The only question is how much more territory will the Russians conquer? And they will conquer more territory. So that's the ground war. The air war is where things are getting dangerous. And there, what's happening is that the Ukrainians are using more drones and more sophisticated drones to attack deep into Russia. And they're hitting oil refineries and they're killing lots of Russian civilians. And the Russians are reaching the point where they're saying enough is enough. And they bombed Kiev on Sunday night in ways that they have never bombed that city before.

19:20They really turned the dogs loose, as I like to say. And they're threatening to do even more. They've warned European countries to remove their diplomatic staffs from Kiev because they are obviously intending to hit targets that might include those diplomatic installations. But the real worry is that the Russians will hit targets inside of Eastern Europe or even Western Europe. There are voices inside of Russia that say it's time to take off the gloves and to go after targets in Europe, because the Europeans are assisting the Ukrainians in these attacks on Mother Russia. The argument, which is quite correct, is that there is no way that the Ukrainians could attack Russia, could attack deep into Russia with drones and missiles the way they're doing now without significant assistance from the West.

20:22And if that is the case, we, the Russians, have to attack into the West if they're going to be allowed to attack into Mother Russia. So it looks like there is a serious possibility that at some point in the future, the Russians will attack NATO countries, and that would be potentially disastrous. Wow. What we've also seen, sir, can we put D3 up here on the screen? I took note of this yesterday. Zelensky in a new letter to President Trump and to Congress saying that he urgently needs Patriot interceptors. And in the letter, basically what he says is that they're going under, like you just said, this sustained Russian attack.

21:03You have these drones and hypersonic missiles that are now being used by the Russians, which definitely do show an increase in the air war. What should we make of this then from the Ukrainian side? So if the If the Russians are going to escalate their attacks, then the Ukrainians, I assume, will escalate even further in terms of their drones, not just oil refineries but other more strategic targets. What they're asking for Patriot interceptors, the Trump administration also is in a bit of a bind because of what just happened with Iran. They can't just give them over. They have to really husband their resources.

21:33What will this look like if things continue to go further? Well, I think that there's no question that we have used up so many Patriot missiles, so many THAAD missiles, Tomahawks, on and on in the war against Iran, that we're in a situation where there are great limits on the weaponry that we can provide to the Ukrainians. And, of course, this includes Patriot missiles. And Patriots were their best defensive weapons. and they're out of patriots, and therefore they're wide open to attacks from Russia. And what Zelensky's trying to do is convince the Americans that they should send patriots to Ukraine to help Ukraine fend off these Russian attacks.

22:24But the fact is that we don't have patriots to give them. We've expended so many weapons in the war against Iran. So this means that Ukraine is wide open to attacks from Russian missiles and from Russian drones for the foreseeable future. Professor, lay out for us, let's say that Russia does go forward with a strike, drug strike on a NATO country. What do you think would happen then? You know, what does that look like? What actions do you believe that the U.S. would be likely to take in that scenario? Well, if you listen to the rhetoric that comes out of Russia from sort of the principal proponents of this perspective, and this perspective enjoys widespread support inside of Russia, especially among the elites, the argument is that you would launch limited conventional attacks against the West.

23:22And if that didn't convince the West to cease and desist from helping the Ukrainians to attack into Russia, deep into Russia, then what the Russians should do is think about using nuclear weapons. Not large numbers of nuclear weapons, but just a handful of nuclear weapons to send a very clear signal to the West that the Russians mean business. What the Russians feel they have to do here is establish deterrence. The Russians believe, and I think quite correctly, that the West thinks that they can help Ukraine attack Russia, and there'll be no price to pay for the West. The West gets a free ride here.

24:05It just can't help the Ukrainians punch away at Russia. There's no real deterrent, in effect, against the West. And the Russians believe they have to establish a deterrent, and they want to do that with conventional weapons, or they're talking about doing it with conventional weapons. But their argument is if that doesn't work, they'll use nuclear weapons. The Russian perspective here is basically that the West doesn't understand that they're dealing with a nuclear armed adversary, that we live in the nuclear world, and that when you begin to threaten the Russian homeland, and you begin to kill Russians in large numbers, that you are creating a situation where the Russians are going to have an incentive to strike back and to strike back in serious ways and to try to convince the West that we live in a world where nuclear deterrence should obtain.

24:58You in the West may have forgotten about that, but we're going to remind you that we live in a world where nuclear weapons may be used, and we will use nuclear weapons, if necessary, to restore deterrence. So that's what's going on here, and it's a very dangerous situation because the West and Zelensky don't seem to care about Russian red lines. The West and the Ukrainians seem to think that they can just pound away at the Russians and get away with it. And if you look at the Iran situation, they were only able to establish deterrence by inflicting immense economic damage on the world. And by doing that, they were able to demand a ceasefire.

25:36You know, Russia can read the news just like anybody else and say, okay, we have to do something similar. Absolutely. And by the way, just to go back to the Iran case, when you look at the Iran case and you tie that in to North Korea, you see that North Korea was smart to get nuclear weapons and that Iran should have gotten nuclear weapons because the Israelis and the Americans definitely would not be attacking Iran if it had nuclear weapons that could hit Israel. And the reason they're doing that is because they think they can get away with it. They can get a free ride because Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons.

26:13And your point about the parallels between the Iranian case and the Russian case, I think, is right on the money. That's the lesson that the Russians have taken from what the Iranians have done. And this is what really scares me because, first of all, it seems that, you know, enough time has passed that we've become complacent about the fact that we do live in a nuclear-armed war and what that means in terms of the level of devastating life-ending destruction can be wrought. We also live in a time where basically every other taboo has been thrown out the window. We all watched a genocide on our live feeds every day and no one with any power stepped in to do anything about it.

26:54You know, we call war peace now. We say that Iran's the aggressors, even though we in Israel are the ones that bombed them. So every every previous taboo seems to have gone out the window. The only one that seems to remain at this point is the nuclear taboo. And it makes me wonder how long that is going to be able to hold up. Yeah, I agree with everything you said. And just to sort of reinforce your point, Crystal, you want to remember that Ukraine invaded Mother Russia in August of 2024. And you also want to remember that Ukraine, and both of these operations were with assistance from the United States and Britain, attacked one leg of the strategic nuclear triad of Russia.

27:45And as I've pointed out on a number of occasions, this was unthinkable during the Cold War. The idea that we would allow one of our allies to attack into Russian territory, it's just not in the realm of possibility during the Cold War. And the idea that we would let one of our allies, with assistance from us, attack one leg of the strategic nuclear triad of the Soviet Union was, again, unthinkable. But here we are in the Ukraine war, and we've helped the Ukrainians to invade Russia. We've helped the Ukrainians to attack the strategic nuclear triad of Russia. And also, it seems that we helped the Ukrainians launch a decapitation attack against Putin.