6/18/26: Trump 180 On Iran, Ben Shapiro Attacks Vance, Deep State Fights Iran MOU

24:25I'm like, sorry, I didn't foresee that China would cut 40 % of all of its imports for the first time ever in human history. I apologize. Thank you, China. Also, you should be thanking China. You should be happy I was wrong. And you should thank China for having better EVs and for a shit ton more oil reserve than we do. But we also kept pointing to one thing, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And we're like, hey, all these oil executives say another month or two or this is going to be a real problem. And what did everybody say? Oh, you're wrong. It's not happening. Look at the delusional traders on Wall Street.

24:54Well, same. Power in the truth. Here's Trump saying we had four weeks until every strategic petroleum reserve ran dry. Let's take a listen. Also, we run out of reserves in about four weeks. You know, there are reserves all over the world. And we would really run out. And there will be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it. And you want to see Bedlam? Bedlam. Bedlam. That's what we're headed towards. Again, you know, Chevron CEO, Rory, really, these people deserve credit. They were not incorrect. All they did not foresee was China having one of the world's largest strategic petroleum reserves and massively cutting their energy imports, which I will just say nobody literally could have foreseen that except for the CCP.

25:33If China had continued to import oil, the current estimate is oil would have been over$150 to$170 a barrel. Now, here, whenever it comes to the Strategic Reserve, they have access to these because the data is all out there. We can all see, oh, you know, lowest level since 1998. Next week, the lowest level since 1984. We're like, well, there's not that much oil there. And then when they do, we know how much that we produce on a daily basis. We have no slack in the system. We know what direction that's going to go. Same here from Trump. We would have run out of oil and it would have been bettum.

26:04So the basic reality is that Iran's strategy was correct and that fundamentally the weapon of the Strait of Hormuz will remain for all time a part of the Iranian playbook. And it should be from their perspective. We can either change that by occupying their nation and taking hundreds of thousands of casualties or we can pay them and we can just live together. I choose the latter. I think most people do, too. You know, it's very interesting to hear Trump say this, to say the least, because, I mean, this is what the Iranian bet was, right? They bet that we could not take the economic pain, that they could, and that it would hurt us more, and it would force us to come to the table and give them the terms that they had long been seeking.

26:51This is confirmation that they were correct, that that bet ultimately paid off. you know, all the propaganda of FDD and others who were saying, oh, if you just if we do a blockade of their blockade, they're going to completely collapse. Remember that they were saying, oh, their oil wells are going to explode and they're going to completely collapse in days. Obviously, that did not happen. And so here you have Trump acknowledging the reason for the timing of this deal is because we ran out of runway. We were weeks away from what he describes as bedlam because we were running too low on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

27:28We weren't the only ones. The whole world's ability to absorb this extraordinarily, truly historic level of an energy shock. That was within days to weeks of coming to an end. And so that's why he was so intent on getting this deal now because we were out of time. There was another very interesting comment. We didn't pull it, but I think it was a lot of things he said were just like very revealing of what was going on in his head as he's watching all of this unfold. And we know how much he watches the stock market and how much market manipulation was a part of the entire strategy this whole time along.

28:06And he said, like, look, I observed that when there was talk of peace, the stock market went up. And when there was talk of war, the stock market went down. And the markets are, he said, they're more genius than any person on the entire planet. So the markets are wise and all-knowing. So that sent me the message of, hey, I better get to peace because that's what the stock market wants. I think that was genuinely an influential part of his thinking was just this very simplistic, oh, peace good, war bad, as judging by the response from the market. So I thought that was very revealing as well. You know, all that being said, I just want to, again, sound a note of caution.

28:47I'm just reading the headlines right now in Haaretz. You've got Israel holding negotiations with the U.S. as it seeks to continue its deployment of troops in southern Lebanon. One person was killed in an Israeli drone strike in a town in southern Lebanon's Nabataea district, according to a local channel. So you still have Israel agitating here. Netanyahu's entire, entire political career is truly on the line. Israel feels that this is existential. We're going to show you some of the continued freak out from their allies here, as well as some domestic, you know, intense supporters of Netanyahu, for example, who are just absolutely losing their minds.

29:26They will do whatever they can to undermine this. And Trump is very sensitive. His ego is very sensitive. You know, he could wake up today, see news coverage she doesn't like, and go back to banging the drums of war. None of this is stable. The other thing I will just say on the politics of it is, you know, when Biden withdrew from Afghanistan, it's not exactly the same, but it is a bit of a similar moment of acknowledging the reality of this is a failed war. We've been here for decades. We didn't accomplish anything. Now is the time to pull the plug. What, we're going to stay there forever? That was basically the reason for the Afghan withdrawal was there is not going to be a good time to do this.

30:06So we're just going to do this and acknowledge the reality that is in front of everybody's eyes. People leading up to the withdrawal supported it overwhelmingly. If you polled the American people, we looked at these polls. They would say, yes, we should get out of Afghanistan. Then it happened and it became the single most devastating blow to Biden's presidency. the reason being because there was such a united front across all media apparatus. There were very big, again, credit to Ro Khani was one of the only ones who was willing to go out and defend Biden and his withdrawal from Afghanistan. There was such a blanket condemnation.

30:41Then, of course, like the horror of American service members being killed, the mess of all that surely did not help anything, although I don't know that there ever would have been a way that this could have gone completely smoothly. It really was like the death knell of his presidency. And so even though Trump here, you know, if if this goes through, if we get to peace, etc., I mean, the fact that he brought us into war to begin with was an utter and complete disaster. and the acknowledgement of the reality of our losing this war, which is what happened. We lost the war. And what that means, what we're going to have to give in exchange for acknowledging that reality, could be a death knell for Trump's presidency the way that the Afghan withdrawal was from Biden.

31:22Yeah, because it's like ending a war which you shouldn't have been in. That's why even navigating this is so difficult, right? You want to be like, wow, Mr. President, thank you for your strategic wisdom. them. It's like, well, you got us into this damn mess. Yeah. You're the reason that the straight of hormones was closed in the first place. And today what it is. Gas actually, thank God gas just hit three ninety nine a gallon nationally. Good. You know, I'm happy it was two fifty. So, OK, you know, it's like, are we going to are we going to celebrate things? No, that's why instead of Trump, I'm just going to attack the people who are attacking the deal.

31:50That's going to be kind of my where I'm at. But yeah, you're not wrong. A lot of people are not going to forget because it's not like things were all peachy here in the U.S. even before the U.S. went to war with Iran. Last thing, Matt Stoller had a good tweet months ago where he said, I'll believe that a deal is real when Trump starts praising the Iranians in a vaguely homosexual manner. And his nascent dude crushes were very on display, not necessarily to the Iranians here, but to a lot of the Arab allies who helped cement this peace deal. Let's take a listen. A6.

32:55He's like an angel. But actually, he's as tough as he's a killer. He's a killer. He's as tough as they come. But he looks so good. So he gets you by surprise. So he was in a hotel and I met him. And we fell in love, deeply in love. And he didn't even want to see Hillary. The last person he's talking about there is President Sisi of Egypt. Of Egypt, who's like one of the most brutal dictators. He's like, I stayed longer, as long as I was supposed to. We fell in love. So my theory of what happened here that really clinched the deal in the end and, you know, led to Trump's capitulation on some key concessions is he saw the Iranian men's national soccer team and was like, look at these, look at these big, strong guys, better looking than Tom Cruise.

33:45And he was like, give them what they want. They want to do a little nuclear enrichment. Why not? They want their money back. Who could blame them? Give them their money back. I think that's what's really going on behind the scenes. There was a chart on Twitter that said, like, as Trump's dementia level rises, also his blatant bisexuality rises in tandem. So that might be what's going on here. Certainly something. All right. Let's get to the Vance situation. Hey, I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb. Together, we're going to have meaningful conversations with the world's most fascinating people.

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37:15vice president who is manipulating and controlling things behind the scenes. Here is Ben Shapiro on Fox News making this case. Let's take a listen. I've said many times the president deciding to go into Iran and to hit nuclear facilities in Operation Midnight Hammer and then to go after Iran's ballistic missile facilities, nuclear facilities, Army, Navy and Air Force in this operation was the signal act of political bravery, perhaps of my lifetime. With that said, this MOU appears to be, just from the text, a disaster that does not achieve any of the actual signal goals that were set by the administration at the beginning.

37:48There were effectively five goals that were set by the administration at the beginning. One was ending the nuclear program, not just nuclear weapons, no nuclear enrichment, zero enrichment. That is not in the deal. Ballistic missiles ended. That is not in the deal. And the president today suggested that ballistic missiles should actually continue to be held by the Iranians because the Saudis, our allies, also hold ballistic missiles. Then you have the support of terrorism. That is not part of the deal. Anything that looks like an attempt to end terrorism, a permanent opening of the Strait of Hormuz toll free.

38:16Not only is that not in the deal, the deal appears to have a provision allowing Iran and Oman to attempt to toll the straits after 60 days. And then finally, the idea that Iran would receive some sort of sanctions relief after all of those things happen. We are already seeing from day one relief in their ability to ship oil out of Iran. In my opinion, the vice president of the United States, the chief negotiator on this particular project, has not well served the president. He has not well served the president. He has not served. Maybe consider the possibility. Trump, who signed it, can read. Can we accept that possibility?

38:47Thus, maybe it's Donald Trump's deal. And you don't have the stones to say, hey, Trump, you made a bad deal. How about that? It's like he's like this infallible. Like, literally, it's the czar. The czar is infallible. Only the people around him who are bad. But the irony of all of this is, is that when Tucker and a few others, remember, one of the war breakout and they were like, well, Israel drug us into a war. They're like, Donald Trump is the wisest, most independent, most singular leader in it. To say he is controlled, manipulated, in fact, preposterous, disgusting, insulting. Can anybody look at the mighty President Trump and say he is controlled?

39:28and now, oh, he's just a weak, he's protected. It's not his fault. He's just being misled by his advisors. Let me give you my other personal favorite, Will Chamberlain. You know, we've had him here on the show. Him and I, I used to like the guy, but the guy was a huge defender of this deal today. He says that we have the text. The deal is absolutely terrible. There's no getting around it. The text gives Iranians huge immediate financial benefits and in exchange for the straight, nothing else. Here's what he said on February 18th, 2026. You do not have more insight into what America should do vis-a-vis Iran than Donald Trump, J.D.

40:05Vance, Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth. You just don't let them cook. I agree. Let them. I agree. Let them cook. Trust the plan. Am I right? You know, they're the play. That sounds like panicking behavior. There are some people who are out there doing the trust the plan, though, like some like they're trying to imagine some 4D chess where, you know, this all ends in. And look, it may be the case that we end up going back to. Yeah, but it won't be 40 chess. It'll just be. Yes, exactly. Exactly. But no, I mean, this has been a consistent theme since the first Trump administration. Then I remember hearing all about how it's Kushner's fault that, you know, Trump is doing X or Y or Z that we don't want him to do.

40:44So it reminds me, too, of—so John Podoretz is in total meltdown. The human watermelon. And it's kind of—it's very enjoyable because he's telling the truth about something. Like, he's saying things like, I don't know why we even went into this war. And it's like, yeah, me neither. Why did we? You know, at the urging of idiots like you. But in any case, he said this extraordinary thing about how he was like, look, what this all comes down to is the truth of the matter is Trump is corrupt. And when he was doing the Iran war, doing the bidding of Israel, that wasn't because of his corruption. That was his genuine view.

41:20But now the corruption is taking hold, just completely ignoring the whole Miriam Adelson of the situation or the way that Witkopf and Kushner and the Trump family are completely invested in the entire region, etc. But now that he's doing something that Padoritz does not want him to do, Now it's the corruption that's really driving the train. It really is incredible to see. But, you know, the J.D. Vance thing is significant politically because, in a sense, you know, I think that they are correct to—politically correct to hone in on J.D. Vance, avoid the direct criticism of Trump because you know how thin-skinned he is.

41:59And Trump himself said that, hey, if this deal doesn't work out, you know who I'm going to blame? I'm going to blame the vice president. I'm going to say that it was all his fault. And like many things that he uttered yesterday, I think on that he was telling the truth. Let's go ahead and take a listen. Why not stick around for the signing ceremony with this Iran peace deal? I might. You might. Yeah, I might. But I'd rather this is a memorandum of understanding. It's very important, but it might not be the kind of a document that I should be signing. There's some element to this where you send the vice president.

42:35If it works out great, you look like a genius for sending him. And if it doesn't work out, it's the vice president. I like that idea. Sure. This way, if it works out, I'm going to take the credit. If it doesn't work out, I'm blaming JD. You better be careful, JD. He's going to turn his plane around and get the hell out of here. Yeah, I like that idea. I think it's a good idea. It's very interesting to watch Marco Rubio's face throughout this entire press conference, by the way. But no, I mean, when it was war and Trump is threatening to kill the entire civilization and all these sorts of things, Marco Rubio was very much on the, you know, he was on the upswing and he was put out to the media and he was a lot of the public face.

43:15Now that there's an attempt at this memo of understanding and negotiations towards a peace deal, J.D. Vance has been on like 3 ,000 news programs. And he's briefing the press this morning. Oh, is he? And I just got a notification on my phone that he did one with Ross Douthat. He was on with the ladies at The View. He was over at Fox News. I mean, he really is being made the face of this thing. And so I think there is some truth to Trump's quip there that, you know, oh, if this doesn't go well, I'll just blame J.D. Vance. And I think, you know, that will allow the neocons to attack the deal without getting into Trump's bad graces.

43:52Look, I mean, it's a similar strategy to what Joe Kent employed, you know, where he he resigns. But he tried, you know, he went out of his way to be like, oh, the only person who could get us out of this bind is the magnificent Donald Trump. You know, I mean, he understood that Trump's ego is very, very fragile. And so if you're going to, you know, continue to have any sort of standing with him, you have to protect the ego at all costs. And so they're doing their version of that of, well, who can we identify that we can pick on who also, by the way, you know, Ben Shapiro and J.D. Vance have other ideological differences that Shapiro would, you know, are happy, happy to go after J.D.

44:33Vance and make him the potential fall guy if this thing comes apart, which it very well may. But this is part of the issue with Trump. He doesn't want to actually take credit for anything. I mean, he literally says it out loud. So in some ways you could just say, you know, like he literally said he's like, well, it doesn't work. If it works out, I'll take credit. If it doesn't, then I'll blame J.D. I mean, I think J.D. has made the calculation. He's like, look, I'm going to be the face of this thing. Nobody else will try to sell it, you know, to the president. We're going to have Rubio sell it.

44:58Rubio went out and sold the war. How did that work out? It actually worked out well for me because he's the only person who told the truth the day after the war. Remember? Well, we had to attack Iran because Israel was going to attack them. And they were and there's nothing that we could have done to stop them. So we went into the war because of Israel. He literally said it. So look, did you hear Hillary Hillary Clinton's comments this week? Which ones? Well, she said a lot of things. But she said she said this thing about how, oh, Israel tried to get us into war with Iran many times. And she said that they would literally tell them like the planes are on the tarmac and they'd be like, don't care.

45:32But because Trump is such a rube and he's got a bunch of incompetent idiots around him and because he ultimately wanted this war and wanted to be talked into this and was very easily talked into it because of the idea of like oh sir your legacy you'll remake the middle east you'll do what no one else had the courage to do etc etc um but in any case when they did the whole like oh we're about to go he was like all right well i guess we have to go and that was the final thing that pushed him over the edge is what it seems like happened to you. Yeah, I mean, look, beyond all of the stupidity of even getting into all of this in the first place, I do actually think this is very important.

46:10Let's go and put DB3 up here on the screen. This was, everyone should read this. The Israeli ultra hawks who feel betrayed by Trump's Iran deal. Shimon Ricklin, an anchor on the country's right wing, Channel 14 and a Netanyahu ally, ally thinks America stabbed Israel in the back. I really recommend everybody go and actually read this thing to get into the deranged minds of the Israeli right wing. But the important line there, which has a deep historical parallel to the Versailles and the Memorandum of Understanding and the 14 points, just like the 14 points by Wilson, the peace plan, is the phrase stabbed in the back because what is playing out right now is the exact same situation as the Germans of 1919 where the home front collapsed and they had to surrender at the Treaty of Versailles.

47:02And they decided to concoct this theory where it was the German people who opposed the war from continuing because they were starving and going through like revolution, that it was their fault that the great armed forces ended up having to surrender. This stab in the back theory obviously becomes intrinsic with Nazism. But in this case, the people who stabbed the Israelis in the back are us, the Americans, because we don't have the stomach for war, as they recently wrote. But why is this so dangerous? Because for them, they're going to construct this unhinged new reality, which you can actually read in here.

47:36And he goes, well, you know, the blockade of the blockade was working. And if America had just allowed our Kurdish militias to enter, then it would have worked. He said the IDF general staff told him that there was an 80 percent chance of regime change. If we had just let these cur... I mean, this is the same deranged shit that the Germans used to say after the First World War. Oh, if only we had done this one more military offensive. Or the Vietnam dead enders. They did the same shit. If we bombed a little bit more, then we could have... Then it all could have worked out, you know? I mean, but why is that so dangerous?

48:08Because when you don't reckon with reality, what happens? Oh, well, we all know we're stabbed in the back when, back under Germany. But, like, the parallels here are exactly the same, where they cannot grapple with their own failure. They can only be failed. It's like the whole Trump can't fail. He can only be failed. The Israelis can never fail. They can only be failed, in this case, by America. Go ahead and look. Trump's approval rating now is minus 23. In Israel, three weeks ago, it was plus 16. What does that tell you, right? They want us to serve them. That's the way that they look at it.

48:39You can actually even read throughout this entire thing. Think about, I mean, Trump has done everything. Everything people could ever want. I mean, truly, like, they basically annexed, you know, parts of Syria, invaded and annexed parts of Lebanon. They have now 60 to 70 percent of Gaza that they've annexed. You know, he supported their genocide for a long time before we got any sort of a deal there. The deal continues to be a disaster, and the Israelis are still allowed to kill with impunity. Palestinians, the West Bank rampaging, even the little bit of, you know, settler sanctions that the Biden administration put on, like, four people.

49:12The Trump administration, oh, we can't do that. you know, we've got to let the violent terror settlers rampage throughout and do whatever they want. He has done everything they want up to and including starting this war, which was something that the Israeli public and Netanyahu wanted very dearly. And now they cannot handle the fact that this was a disaster. It was not only a dramatic disaster and miscalculation by Trump, it was a dramatic disaster and miscalculation by them because all of their, oh, it's going to regime is going to collapse and they're so weak, blah, blah, blah. They were high on their own supply the same way that Trump was high on his own supply with regards to Venezuela.

49:51I want to read you this one section. And Chotner, I don't know why anyone ever agrees to an interview with this guy. This guy's Israeli, so he doesn't know. I guess. I don't know. They're very savvy about American media, so I'm not sure about that. But unlike the domestic political context here where Shapiro and others are going out of their way not to blame Trump, Now, he and the Israelis are very much putting the blame on Trump, as they should, I guess. And Chotner kind of plays along with him in all of this and all of his delusions. So in any case, Chotner says, putting aside the merits of this war, do you think people such as yourself and the prime minister misjudged Donald Trump?

50:24I know you said a joyful prayer on the air when he was elected in 2024. You must have had some sense of who this guy is, that he isn't loyal to anyone, that he had no real core values. The response, listen, I was really happy when he was elected. I admit it. I think it was good for Israel, and in the beginning it was, but today I don't know what to think. I am really in shock. Chotner goes on, it's hard to fathom, again playing along with him. I don't have a lot of moments like this. I don't remember someone in modern history who would go with you and do wonderful things and then suddenly disappear and go against you.

50:57So no, I'm the bad guy. I supported you. I was the good guy. How did I become the bad guy? And Ayatollah is the good guy. And then Shana replies, this is why I was wondering whether you had ever observed Donald Trump. Like, did you know who you're dealing with here? Like the man has no loyalties to anyone, anything except what serves him right then in that moment. And five days from now, they may be cheering him again. You know, they're negotiating over whether they continue to occupy and bomb in Lebanon. And we'll see what happens with that. We'll see what happens over the next 60 days, whether his ego can handle the damage that it's no doubt sustaining as so many people come out and say, hey, this is actually really, it's not even that it's a bad deal.

51:37It is the necessary deal. But clearly, it acknowledges reality that we lost and they won. Can he handle that? Can he sustain it? So the same guy may be singing his praises again and thinking they're besties again, you know, in a week's time. But pretty wild to see the level of delusion that they had about who and what they were dealing with. Oh, look, they created their own mythos. And I think they really believed Netanyahu, that he controlled Donald Trump or that he was, you know, had the what did he say once behind closed doors? Like, I know exactly how to work the Americans. I mean, to his credit, he did.

52:12He actually did. I mean, you can't say that he didn't get almost 98 percent of what he wanted. But as usual with these rampaging lunatics is that they get what they want and it's working and it's working and it's working. And then they go one dice roll too many and seven comes up on the table. And that's what happened here with Iran is they actually got everything that they wanted, which is part of the why it's good, because it shows you that we be absent a ground invasion. We threw everything we had at Iran and they still did not buckle in the way that they want. So they have nothing. That's why they need the stab in the back theory.

52:45But again, I really want to emphasize that, you know, considering where history went after the Treaty of Versailles, at Trump signing the Versailles memorandum, after stabbing the back, it can get very dangerous. By the way, you know, on J-Pod, I've been wanting to revisit this. Do you remember this from July 4th, 2025, when Trump said the word Shylock? Yeah. And J-Pod said, Trump bombed Iran. He can say Shylock 100 times a day forever, as far as I'm concerned. So I just want to know, J-Pod, does Trump still have your permission to say the word? Does he still have his Shylock card? That is my most pressing question of the day.

53:20Does he still have his Shylock card? These people are beyond character. That is an open question to the human watermelon J-Pod. One last thing I want to add in here, just as we're thinking of how unhinged the Israelis are, how existential this is for Netanyahu's political career, which I genuinely think it is. And his political opponents are all challenging him from the right, all saying, like, you were not hawkish enough and you need to defy the Americans. And we can't accept this weak status as their client state. That's how they're all posturing. It's very it's very popular with the Israeli public.

53:58So I do think he is in deep, deep political trouble. So, I mean, what would he and what would the state be willing to do in order to, you know, re-secure his standing, in order to go back to a war that he personally sees as being existential for his political career? And I think the nation of Israel sees as being existential to their, you know, their construction as they are now, their particular view of how, you know, they can't possibly allow any rival. They can't have anyone who could even theoretically challenge them, whether or not they have intent to do them harm or not. And in that vein, it was very unnerving to see Laura Loomer tweet that soon there will be a massive Islamic terror attack in America, and the perpetrators will likely have financial ties to podcasters and those who are sowing discord for foreign nations in America.

54:49I predict there will be many casualties. Only then will it maybe set in that people have been conned into supporting a terrorist psyop to distract you from the threat of Islam While the enemy plotted to destroy our country from within with bottled conspiracy theories, it will likely be 10 times worse than 9-11. Glenn Greenwald quote tweeted this and said, everyone understandably gets a bit nervous when an agent of Israel starts threatening, I mean predicting, a major mass casualty terrorist attack on American soil just days after the American president announces a deal that enrages all of Israel.

55:19I wish that we could ignore the rantings of Laura Loomer, who was a genuinely mentally unwell person. But unfortunately, she has influence, has been shown to have influence. You know, she's been targeting Trita Parsi. And next thing you know, you get this free press article saying that he's under investigation and being threatened with deportation. So unfortunately, we cannot ignore the ravings of this lunatic. And we cannot ignore what a dangerous situation and phase we're in right now because of the Israel. For the Israelis, there are no moral red lines because they are always inherently the good guys.

55:53And so anything they do in service of what they see as their defense is inherently moral and just because they are good people no matter what they do. Their actions have no bearing on the fact that they are the permanent victims and they are the permanent good guys. So when you have a, you know, bankrupt moral landscape or a non-existent moral landscape such as that, there is nothing you can put off the table that they would not try to, you know, for Netanyahu to preserve his political status. and for them to be able to preserve their ascendant dominance in the Middle East. Yep. And, you know, look, I don't count these people out for a second.

56:32The Laura Loomer thing, very dangerous. The level of anger inside of Israel. I mean, I don't know how much you should take, like, the musings of various, you know, random Israelis. Like, that's always a little bit dangerous. But if you take a look at some of their telegram channels and things, like, there's some unhinged stuff. I'm looking at one from this morning that said this is an anonymous telegram channel of a bunch of Israelis. And they said, we will join the Iranians chant of death to America. Right. I mean, these people have the means, the opportunity, the ability. And so maybe we should start worrying about sleeper cells, you know, in terms of sabotage.

57:08Here's another headline from this one from The Times of Israel, which is more like right wing outlet. Netanyahu to lean on right wing pundits, pro-Israel senators to influence final Iran deal. This is per CNN. Plans to use pro-Israel senators, right-wing media personalities to influence the terms of the final agreement. Believes a final deal with Iran will be secured, but that Tehran will not fulfill its obligations. Plans to use media figures like Fox News' Mark Levin and pro-Israel politicians to get his message across to Trump. So as you were watching, you know, Ted Cruz has been critical of the deal.

57:41Obviously, Levin has been losing his mind. as you're watching these people, just remember, they may have literally gotten a call from Netanyahu telling them what to say, how to push, and how to try to manipulate the situation. Exactly right. All right, we got a great guest standing by. Let's get to it. Hey, I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb. Together, we're going to have meaningful conversations with the world's most fascinating people, like when actress Olivia Munn shared how she overcame fierce health challenges. I've gone through breast cancer and then helped my mother through breast cancer, and that was more difficult.

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1:00:40So we now have the official terms in the memo of understanding. So to dig more into those terms and what they will mean going forward, we're very happy to be joined for the first time by Muhammad Ali Shabani. He is the editor of Amwatch Media. We've relied on some of their reporting. They've had some fantastic scoops over the course of this entire conflict, of course, before as well. It's great to have you, sir. Good to see you, sir. Thank you so much for having me. Yeah, no problem. So let's go ahead, guys, and put this first element up on the screen. This is some of your reporting of the Iranian-released version of the memo of understanding here.

1:01:15Just break down for us what you see as being some of the most significant points as we move into the 60-day negotiation period. Well, I think first and foremost, the most important thing to keep in mind is basically that this is an MOU. It's a Memorandum of Understanding. This is a framework. This is a roadmap. This is not a finalized deal that needs to be fully implemented for the next 10 years. So the most important provision, I think, within this MOU is that it provides for 60 days to come to a final deal, as it's referred to within this document. And that 60-day period can be extended by mutual consent.

1:01:54However, there is a kind of deadline here. and the big ticket items such as how to resolve the future of the Iranian nuclear program, those kinds of things have been mostly pushed back. And so it's going to be difficult the next two months ahead. And we don't know. They may need more time. They may need less time. And they may also come to the conclusion that a deal isn't to be had. And already we're seeing a lot of people in Israel in particular. There are two camps. One camp is very much outraged about this MOU. and the other camp is very relaxed, saying essentially they're not going to have a final deal.

1:02:28So if I were to outline anything that's very important about this MOU, it's number one, it's not a final deal, and it outlines 60 days for negotiations on things like the nuclear program. But apart from that, the provisions within the MOU, which have stirred a lot of, I think, contention, include things like the extent of the Iran-US ceasefire. So this is a document between Iran and the United States. There are no other signatories to this apart from Pakistan as the mediator. And it does say essentially that this truce or this cessation of hostilities extends to their allies, their respective allies in this war.

1:03:07And that's very important because that means essentially Israel is a party to this document. Even though Israel hasn't been in the negotiations, Israel didn't sign this. And one of the provisions in paragraph one, for instance, is that Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty must be ensured. And that, for instance, fighting extends to, for instance, Lebanon as well. And this is going to be one big test, I think, for this MOE, one of the initial tests, which is Israel is going to adhere to paragraph one. It can argue that, for instance, that this deal has nothing to do with this. We're going to sign this document and we're not going to put up with it.

1:03:44And that's going to be a big problem for Trump, I think. How is he going to deal with that, especially with the domestic political firestorm he's facing right now for having agreed to this emoji? So that's just one of many points that I would raise. Very good point. By the way, this morning, you know, Israeli media, Netanyahu says we are not bound by the agreement. So, you know, that doesn't exactly take a genius to see that one coming. Can we put C3 where we have the draft compared to the final image up here on the screen? Because there are a couple of interesting flags that we have here. Our producers created this graphic where in the original draft, they actually added an explicit pledge to protect Lebanese sovereignty.

1:04:22In Article 4, they said that the U.S. will only begin removal at signing and will fully end the blockade at a 30-day deadline. In Article 5, they explicitly added a line where they said that free passage will resume only for 60 days under the Memorandum of Understanding, which opens up the door to charging tolls through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman. In Article 7, they write about sanctions. It adds a mutual pledge to, quote, immediately address the sanctions issue once talks start. And then Article 8, perhaps the most important, they say a same reaffirmation, but now specifically a minimum method of on-site downblending under IAEA supervision of enrichment talks added to.

1:05:03What do you make of these concessions given, obviously, by the United States at the last minute in the final memorandum, understanding, compared to the draft, which had been released some 24 hours earlier? So, you know, we reported a couple of days ago on this provision in paragraph one that got to do with Lebanon specifically. It's about the, again, ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. and the Iranian side kind of insisted that they had managed to get that language in there as a direct result of the Israeli attack on Beirut. So just as a kind of quick backdrop, Iran had put out a red line saying that any Israeli attack on the Lebanese capital would warrant a direct response from Iran against Israel.

1:05:47This kind of triangular pattern. And I think just when the US and Iran were on the cusp of signing this MOU, the Israelis launched this attack on Beirut. probably calculating, probably knowing that Iran is going to hit back. And Iran that night was loading its missiles. The launchers were being loaded, and it was on that level, apparently. And they managed through the direct intervention of Trump, a number of concessions by the United States come to an agreement, and they did not fire anything at Israel that night. So that kind of gambit by Netanyahu seems to have backfired in the sense that some of these concessions that you outlined, including Lebanon specifically, appear to have been a direct result of this kind of gambit by Netanyahu trying to goad Iran into attacking and then for him to then strike back at Iran, obviously get that dynamic going and kind of try to derail Iran, US diplomacy.

1:06:37That's the kind of essence of the dynamic there. I think another thing he attempted with that operation by hitting Beirut was to say, essentially what he's doing now, that Hezbollah is for us a national security issue. It's got nothing to do with the United States. Whether anything he signed with Iran is not going to apply to us, we're not going to pay attention to that. and he has a right to do that. He's a leader of Israel. He's a leader of a different country. But then he needs to also accept that there's going to be costs for that. Israel's ability to fight this war relies a lot on the United States.

1:07:08If he doesn't want the U.S. involved in any kind of diplomacy to do with Israel or the region, then it would be difficult for him to argue that you need to give me all the possible support, political support, military support, having actual U.S. forces, stations inside Israel, operating missile defense, etc., things like that. So it's putting him in an awkward position. And having said that, I think what we need to really keep in mind, again, I hate to be repetitive, that this is an MOU. It's not a final deal. There are a lot of negotiations ahead. There are a lot of heated reactions right now to a lot of provisions in there.

1:07:42What we need to just try to keep in mind, again, is that this story, this episode about how this language about Lebanon was inserted there, it holds an important lesson that maybe on the previous U.S. administrations, Israel was quite adept at playing the White House, frankly, to try to kind of threaten something and get something out of them. And now Iran is kind of doing the opposite, right? And it's interesting that just yesterday, I think the day before, Hillary Clinton went out and essentially said that the Israelis doing her term as Secretary of State, you know, they used to do this kind of stuff all the time, saying that we're going to attack Iran, we have planes on the tarmac, and she would just say, you know, you guys go ahead.

1:08:18and it'd be interesting if you know you know if if trump were to do the same thing now after this incident in beirut if if netanyahu is to say no i don't care what you guys gonna do i'm gonna go ahead and bomb beirut and what if trump just says go ahead yeah be our guest yeah yeah make sure make sure you have some thad missiles too to shoot down some missiles uh whenever the time comes we wish you the best of luck um lingering on lebanon here for a moment and the the first provision where this language about, quote, ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon appears in the final draft.

1:08:52It didn't appear in the earlier draft that was leaked to American media outlets. Do the Iranians, do you think, interpret that as a demand for the IDF not only to stop bombing and attacking, but also to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon? So we have reports saying that Hezbollah apparently has been informed by the Iranians that a final deal. Again, keep in mind, this is not the final deal, this is the MOU. The final deal with the United States will entail an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. And that's where the language about territorial integrity and sovereignty come in. You can't have sovereignty with foreign forces on your soil.

1:09:30That's not sovereignty. Sovereignty literally is defined as monopoly on violence within your boundaries, your territorial boundaries. So I think that's the kind of long-term gain. That's what they're looking at down the line. Again, we don't know how long these negotiations on the final deal are going to continue. We know there's a 60-day period, but it says extendable by mutual consent, right? So we don't have a clear timeline. What we do know is that the end game is Israel needs to leave Lebanon. And, you know, frankly, I'm not sure whether that's against Israeli interests. Israel spent 18 years in Lebanon until the early 2000s, you know, and I don't think they want to stay in there.

1:10:09There's not really much for them there. They're just exposed right now. They're facing a lot of difficulties with things like these new drones that Hezbollah is firing at them on a daily basis. It's not a good situation. I think for Israel, it's much more, how can I put this, advantageous to launch airstrikes, et cetera, from behind the border. They can do that. They can continue doing that. But having forces on the ground puts them at great vulnerability, a lot of political risk, and direct confrontation with the United States. Mohamed, you're assuming they think rationally. Well, it gives them kind of an excuse to retreat without it being labeled as such.

1:10:45Oh, the Americans are forcing us into it. But to your point, they've been sustaining significant losses in Lebanon much more so than what they were expecting. Yeah. Mohamed, I do want to get your reaction to C4. We can put it up here on the screen. I'm curious from your perspective, whenever you're talking with international sources here in the United States, We are already watching a deep state effort to try and torpedo elements of the Memorandum of Understanding and an eventual deal. So recently, the State Department actually told Congress that Iran's oil exports are, quote, a primary revenue source for terrorism financing, which is hours after the U.S.

1:11:20and Iran signed the memorandum that included oil sanctions relief. And Trump is downplaying Iran's behavior. The reason why this matters is if by reporting that, they actually are making themselves subject to congressional review if they want to try and take some sanctions off. And there are significant domestic elements here in the U.S., specifically headed by Marco Rubio here, obviously, which could easily technically derail the details. What I'm curious for you is how do the Iranians see the actual capability of getting across a finish line as well as some of the other regional sources that you've spoken to?

1:11:54So Iran, I think the way it approaches things like sanctions relief is that it will rely heavily on waivers, on presidential waivers. That's the way they look at things, ultimately. They understand that Congress is going to be difficult and then that prior to November, Trump can push things through. But after November, it's going to be much more difficult. And we're seeing one layer to that in the reactions to this MOU by the Democrats who have opposed this war. But now that there's an actual cessation of hostilities, now that there's actual document to find a way out of this conflict, they're among the loudest voices who are opposed to this document, you know, screaming that Trump is handing over X and Y, etc.

1:12:34So that's kind of giving us a sense of congressional action is going to be difficult. The sooner you get it done, the better. But first and foremost is reliance on presidential waivers to kind of get a lot of the sanctions relief through. But I think zooming out further, the number one calculation, I think, on the part of Iran is if we manage to get a deal that is implemented, that's a win. If we don't manage to get a deal because of subterfuge or what have you on the part of the United States, that's also a win because we managed to make clear to our own people that we're not the problem. Right.

1:13:07Right. So in case there is a resumption of hostilities, then they're going to basically be able to count on popular support that they wouldn't if it became quite clear that they're not being rational. They don't want to negotiate a solution to do all of this, et cetera. So I think the way they're approaching sanctions relief is it's a win-win. We get it, we win. If we don't get it because of U.S. inaction or what domestic politics, that's also a win for us. It just shows we can make a deal with the United States. What do you see as the most difficult sticking points over the next 60 days in terms of securing a final deal?

1:13:42It's quite interesting. Trump's marks yesterday, he was quite honest for the first time. I think he was just saying things like, you can't tell Iran not to have any kind of nuclear program, and then its neighbors have it, and missiles and these kinds of things. I think there's going to be a lot of push and pull about the details of things like the enrichment, the uranium enrichment. I think that can be solved. They had a solution prior to this war, which was basically for Iran to engage in an international consortium on its soil with a bunch of its neighbors to basically have a multinational operation going to make sure that there's maximum transparency.

1:14:17There's going to be any kind of diversion of the nuclear program for weaponization. I think there's a solution for that. I think when you look at things like terrorism financing, of course, there's a domestic political element to it that has to do with sanctions relief. But I think another element to it is an attempt to shape the framework of these negotiations. If you look at the MOU, there are a couple of things in there which stand out in terms of they're missing. Number one is missiles. Number two is this kind of Iran's regional alliance network, how it's going to approach that. So I think in these negotiations, we're going to possibly see some attempts to put these things on the agenda.

1:14:54But again, it's quite confusing because Trump is so openly now going out and saying that Iran has to be able to defend itself. We can't have a situation with Iran whereby it can't defend itself. And here we're going to see the influence and possibly even the limits of what Israel and its kind of allies in Washington can achieve. Because we understand that prior to this war, there was a lot of talk about the nuclear program being an imminent threat. And as soon as the war had begun and things started going wrong, we saw Netanyahu go out and say, well, hold on, it wasn't the nuclear issue. In fact, it was the missiles that Iran had X amount of missiles that were going to fire at us, which would be the equivalent of a nuclear bomb.

1:15:31Right. And now that Iran has had this war and it's found that missiles are basically its only real means of deterrence and defense, they're not going to give them up. So is that going to be the Achilles heel of these of these kinds of negotiations? We don't know. We're going to find out in the next 60 days or so. Yeah, because the fact Trump says something today doesn't mean he won't say something different tomorrow. We've seen the Israelis in the past be successful at inserting new red lines into negotiations that end up being poison pills. So that certainly is a possibility. I'm curious, just lastly, for me, you mentioned that there's one camp of Israelis that are really freaking out.

1:16:07We've shared some of their commentary on this show, so our audience will be very familiar with that viewpoint. You said there's another faction that's kind of relaxed because they're like, yeah, it's never going to be a deal. Don't worry about it. We're going to be going back to war. It's going to be fine. What do you think is giving them that confidence? I think based on what I've read, the people in the security circles and intelligence, they're essentially saying that their read of Iran, their understanding of Iran, is that these bottom lines they have on things like a nuclear program, things like the regional policies, such as also the missile program, they're not going to budge on them fundamentally.

1:16:45These are points that they've been quite stubborn on for the past 20 years. They may be right. They may also be wrong because there's been one big change in Iran, because we've changed from one Khamenei to another, right? There has been a regime change, just not the kind of regime change that the United States and Israel may have liked, right? So we don't know what this new leadership, how pragmatic they may be on things like the nuclear issue, things like the regional alliance networks. We have no idea. So I think this is a kind of a black box right now. And again, we're just going to have to wait and see.

1:17:19And time will tell to what extent Iran and the United States can be flexible in the relations. What we do know is that the former Supreme Leader of Iran, 86-year-old Ali Khamenei, he was quite stringent on certain things. And now he's gone. and we don't know how Iran's bottom line may have changed. Right. Really, really good point. Well, Mohamed, so insightful. Thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it. Thank you so much for having me.

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