6/3/26: Iran Bombs Kuwait, Hezbollah Hits IDF In Lebanon, Elections In California

20:02Emily Jashinsky:What's extra sad is that some of this we know from that big New York Times report with Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman on the byline. We know that it was Rubio and others inside of the administration predicting some of this would happen. Everybody could have predicted some of this would happen and were lukewarm on Trump's decision to launch the February 28th strikes partially because of what they're now defending as this successful war that's now over. Yeah, Rubio called the Israeli arguments BS in that meeting. Right. Trump's like, oh, well, it's fine. Let's do it anyway. Yeah. It's 2026. We upgraded our phones, our cars, even our coffee.

20:40So why are we still acting like pleasure is negotiable? At Pink Cherry, it's not. They've got hundreds of toys that actually deliver. And whether you know exactly what you like or you're still figuring it out, there is a wide range to explore. If you'd rather skip the guesswork, their mystery boxes make it easy. They curate a mix for you so you can discover new favorites without overthinking it. And they ship discreetly with free shipping on orders over$59, which we love. So go to PinkCherry.com and use promo code CHELSEA to save up to 80 % off site-wide. Because life is hard, feeling good shouldn't be.

21:14PinkCherry.com, because everyone deserves pleasure. I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything. It's the rage bait. It feels like it's trying to divide people. If we got clear facts, maybe we can calm down a little. NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News, reporting for America. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. The message for everyone paying big wireless way too much. please for the love of everything good in this world stop with mint you can get premium wireless for just 15 a month of course if you enjoy overpaying no judgments but that's weird okay one judgment anyway give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch up front payment of 45 for three-month plan equivalent to 15 per month required intro rate first three months only then full price plan options available taxes and fees extra see full terms at mintmobile.com We can move to Israel.

22:21We had this news earlier this week that there was this tense call between Netanyahu and Trump. Joe Biden.

22:29Emily Jashinsky:Oh, Trump. Yeah. I think a lot of people have a very hard time hearing a word about angry phone calls between an American president and an Israeli prime minister because nothing seems to ever change. Even though they almost certainly, this is part of what's so pathetic about it. The reports, I actually think, are very credible, whether it's Barack Ravid 10 different times on Joe Biden being mad at Netanyahu when he was awake or now Donald Trump. That's what's so pathetic about this. I think they actually are frustrated with Netanyahu and then continue to make decisions in his benefit. And Trump does flex his muscles on Netanyahu sometimes.

23:07Famously, remember, he made And Netanyahu apologized to the emir of Qatar when he bombed the Hamas building in Doha. Netanyahu then denied it. And then the White House produced a photo of Netanyahu reading the apology onto the phone. Remember that? Yeah, it was humiliating. Utter humiliation.

23:27Emily Jashinsky:But also kind of for us, too. So these things do happen, but then that's the end of it. Netanyahu knows like, OK, I'm going to like take a little spanking here, but but then he's going to back off me and I'm going to be able to do whatever I want. So it's Amar Ben-Gavir. We guess we can put this put B1 up on the screen here posted. Mr. Prime Minister, you said that a strong PM tells the president of the United States yes when possible and no when necessary. This is the time to tell our friend, President Trump, no. Now is the time to do what is required and necessary to strike Hezbollah, to unleash the hands of our fighters and to restore security to the north.

24:11You can put up B2. This is Ben Gavir. He goes and visits a settlement and says, in all honesty, the suburbs of Beirut need to be flattened. They need to be flattened. I opposed the previous ceasefire. And today I'm also saying the suburbs must be flattened. So this is the kind of range of debate going on within Israel right now.

24:36Emily Jashinsky:It's the defense minister. National security, national security advisor. Yeah. And Lebanon is the sticking point in a war between Iran and the United States where we're trying to reach a deal. The sticking point is Israel wanting to go to war with Lebanon. Right. And you had drop site, you all had drop site, Jeremy, and your whole team has been reporting on how this is factoring in into the negotiations as a sticking point. So what we're seeing play out right here in Israel and in Lebanon is really critical to when the war may actually end contra the claims of Secretary Reba that it's already over.

25:10Yeah, and we put up B3. This is also a VO. This is footage from Courtney Bonneau, courageous reporter in southern Lebanon who's been reporting on the endless violence and an ethic cleansing going on there. And you're at the site of a hospital, Obaida, which has been attacked several times by Israel. Talk to us about what the scene is like there. That's right. This is the third time that there has been a strike in the vicinity of Jebel Amel Hospital. The doctors and medical workers here are describing them as proximity strikes. The hospital is here, you see. The facade of the hospital has been heavily damaged.

25:44We were able to go inside the ICU as well as the critical care unit and several of the other floors. It's been significantly damaged inside. Some of the operating rooms are not usable. Some of the treatment rooms are no longer usable. A lot of damage to the equipment. We met a mother who had an infant child in the premature care unit, prenatal birth care unit, and she actually came to the hospital after the strike. She was happy to find that her baby was alive, but a lot of damage around the place that the baby was, too close for comfort for her. You see this extensive damage all throughout this neighborhood.

26:29This is the parking lot. And so meanwhile, the Israeli military conquered the Beaufort Castle. This is a crusader castle that was, we can put up this video here before. It's a crusader castle that was very important in the 12th century. And we can talk about the last time the Israelis captured it. Immediately after capturing it, they put up a celebratory video with a bunch of IDF soldiers showing off that they took this crusader castle. Well, Hezbollah then watched that video, saw where the Israeli troops were, and immediately launched a drone swarm at them. And at least three IDF soldiers were fatal casualties, others injured.

27:18A tank was destroyed. I think two ATCs were destroyed. And so I don't know if you saw this, but the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations went to the UN and delivered what is, to me, one of the most, like, eyebrow raising. I don't even know what to say. It's like kind of left speechless at it. Let's roll this. This is an example of a drone used by Hezbollah. This is what we are dealing with. Now Hezbollah are using different kinds of drones, few of them with fiber optic. These drones weigh less than two kilograms. It flies low, it is very difficult to detect, and by the time you hear it above your head, it's too late.

28:13It can fly undetected for tens of miles. and all of a sudden you see it above your head. A SIM cable is what makes this drone different. It does not rely on a radio signal. It cannot be easily jammed, unfortunately. It gives the operator a live video feed and direct control until impact. This is a modern warfare, cheap, precise, deadly. Yeah, so Emily, what you just saw there was the representative of an invading army, invading an occupying army, complaining that the people he's invading, of which they have killed 3 ,000 civilians in recent months, that they're fighting back.

29:00Emily Jashinsky:And the 3 ,000, it's since the war broke out? Since the ceasefire. Right, right. Unbelievable. And they want the UN to condemn that Hezbollah is fighting back? Yeah, of course. It's a very strange, like how do you, like, trying to get my, I feel like that is, it's so divorced from reality. Meanwhile, the effort to annex this greater Israel, particularly when it comes to the West Bank, continues apace. And so let's bring in Josh Paul to talk about the legal mechanisms underway there. It's 2026. We upgraded our phones, our cars, even our coffee. So why are we still acting like pleasure is negotiable?

29:51At Pink Cherry, it's not. They've got hundreds of toys that actually deliver. And whether you know exactly what you like or you're still figuring it out, there is a wide range to explore. If you'd rather skip the guesswork, their mystery boxes make it easy. They curate a mix for you so you can discover new favorites without overthinking it. And they ship discreetly with free shipping on orders over$59, which we love. So go to PinkCherry.com and use promo code CHELSEA to save up to 80 % off site-wide. Because life is hard, feeling good shouldn't be. PinkCherry.com, because everyone deserves pleasure.

30:28I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything. It's the rage bait. It feels like it's trying to divide people. If we got clear facts, maybe we can calm down a little. NBC News brings you clear reporting. Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News, reporting for America. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Baja Mar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues, John Batiste's all-new jazz club, the Caribbean's most luxurious casino, and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like our 15-acre tropical water park, wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course, and so much more.

31:25Visit Baja Mar.com today. The Israeli government has been using antiquities laws for quite some time now to try to seize and annex West Bank territory as well as Gaza territory at some point. But now the U.S. is getting involved in a more direct way. To help us kind of unpack what's going on here, Josh Paul from A New Policy is here to walk us through some of what he's discovered. And we'll also talk about this new development where the Israelis are responding to pressure on the U.S. to cut military support or military spending to boost the Israelis by saying, well, how about we just integrate with the Pentagon?

32:07Make it all one thing. So we'll talk about that on the back end of this, but on the front end of this. First of all, thank you for joining us. And congrats. I know you guys supported Adam Hamill last night. Your colleague was up in Trenton, New Jersey. Yeah, thank you. Adam is a great candidate. Actually, about 90 % of the candidates we endorsed yesterday won their races or moved on to the next round. I think it's a sign that America is really shifting and the politics are finally beginning to catch up. People may remember Josh from a long-time State Department official who resigned in protest over the Israeli genocide in Gaza.

32:41So what is the American Heritage Commission? Tell us the story of this. Sure. We can put this first element up on the screen. This is a crazy story. It is an absolutely crazy story. And for us, it began by reading the Annual Appropriations Act that provides funding for U.S. foreign policy, which is moving through Congress right now. And buried deep in the text of this, you know, several hundred page bill is a line that endorses the work of the U.S. Commission for the Protection of Heritage of American Citizens Overseas or Broad. and endorses in particular its work in East Jerusalem and its support to the Israeli City of David project.

33:25And that called our I, because the Israeli City of David project is, as you said, ethnic cleansing under cover of archaeology. It's a project that has so far displaced over 1 ,000, over 1 ,500 actually Palestinians in the Silwan neighborhood of East Jerusalem, has demolished over 100 Palestinian homes in the name of an archaeological dig. And so we said, well, wait a second, what is this U.S. Commission and what is its involvement here? So we did the research and the U.S. Commission was created actually in 1985 in the Cold War. If you remember, this was the time of Pope John Paul II, the Catholic Pope from Poland, the time of Anatoly Sharansky, the Jewish dissident from Moscow.

34:05And so religion was front and center. And this commission was created, I think, as a part of that struggle with a particular focus on American heritage in Central and East Europe, in those parts that were then under Soviet influence. Today, the Heritage Commission, that remains its remit. That's supposed to be the left and right limits. And yet, starting a few years ago, it has been increasingly involved in backing Israel's ethnic cleansing and its archaeological, quote-unquote, digs, particularly in East Jerusalem. And if you look at the Heritage Commission, that's actually not that surprising because of who it is made up by.

34:43So right now, the chair of the commission is a lady called Leslie Weiss. She was the U.S. envoy to the International Holocaust Remembrance Assembly, the organization that came out with that now infamous definition that says criticism of Israel is anti-Semitism. Which the U.S. then codified into law. Which the U.S. continues to try to advance and apply to shut down debate in academia. Also on the commission's board is Herbert Block, who is president of the American Zionist movement. And most interestingly, a guy, a New York investor, Dweck, Joseph Dweck, who actually appeared on essentially a spinoff of a fake version of Shark Tank that was created specifically for Israeli settlers to pitch their ideas, for illegal Israeli settlers.

35:30Emily Jashinsky:That sounds like something someone would come up with on a fake Shark Tank, like SNL Shark Tank. Like, it's another version of Shark Tank, but it's for settlers. And this is the guy who's now driving U.S. policy and now bringing Congress behind to support ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Can you tell us a bit more? Let's actually play a little bit of the Shark Tank first. Yeah, let's roll this. One of the main goals of the farm is protecting the lands of the state of Israel. By being here, that's actually what we're doing, giving Jewish presence to these lands that were deserted.

36:03Our Farm Project Initiative comes to unite and bring together 42 farms of Judah and Samaria.

36:10Emily Jashinsky:60 ,000 acres is the amount of land that our farmers protect in Judah and Samaria. So tell us a bit about why they say what they're doing is important. So we've talked a bit about the outcome, but what do they say the stakes are for their ability to do what they want to do? So, interestingly, if you look at the commission website, it actually doesn't make any mention of their work in Jerusalem or in Palestine, probably because it's well outside of their actual mandate. You know, they are given$770 ,000 in taxpayer money each year. This is a commission that meets twice a year. So how they're spending$770 ,000, I think, is a pretty opaque question and needs to be looked into.

36:55They refer on their website to their work in Europe. They make reference to one project they have in Armenia, but nothing on this. So I don't think that beyond they've done a couple of public statements and public engagements with an organization called Elad. This is another interesting thread to pull. This is an Israeli nonprofit that is backing these archaeological digs. It, in turn, is funded by a Russian oligarch, now sanctioned Russian oligarch, Robben Abramovich. So you have this U.S. commission working with an organization backed by a sanctioned Russian oligarch to pursue ethnic cleansing in Jerusalem.

37:29The only real recent reference to that, beyond their public statements over five years ago, is now in this congressional text in which Republicans in Congress are essentially backing the work of the commission in East Jerusalem specifically and trying to pursue funding for this City of David ethnic cleansing project. And correct me if I'm wrong, the 2021 war in Gaza was sparked by this precise project. Right. This Sheikh Jarrah ethnic cleansing. Hamas said, stop evicting Palestinians from this neighborhood or we're going to fire. They went forward and continued to ethnically cleanse the area. Hamas fired.

38:14Israel attacked Gaza back. Yeah, and Jerusalem is a particular flashpoint. We've just seen in the last few weeks claims that some within the Israeli government are looking to shift what they call the status quo on the Haram al-Sharif or Temple Mount to expand Israel's presence. And that is such a tense area that drives, I think, a lot of instability, not only in Jerusalem and Gaza and Palestine, but across the Middle East. But it is also an agenda that fits very nicely into what some are pursuing through what they call Christian Zionism, which is essentially not only supporting Israel's objectives, but using this essentially as a means to lead to that ultimate battle that Christian Zionists believe will bring back Jesus and lead to the end times.

39:05So I think it's a very dangerous project. How does this antiquities law play out in the West Bank? and particularly the one that the Knesset is now pushing, an even more aggressive one? Yeah, so in the West Bank there are a number of sites where Israel is now trying to exert. So right now Israel's occupation in the West Bank is by and large a military occupation. They are trying to create a new civilian archaeological authority to take control of certain West Bank sites that they call heritage sites. This would be essentially a de facto annexation. Once you start saying this is no longer a military occupation, This is now under civilian governance, civilian rule.

39:42It's part of Israel. And so that's just another example of how Israel is trying to use archaeology as a pretext for ethnic cleansing and for annexation.

39:53Emily Jashinsky:Well, what's interesting is when you said that it seems like it's maybe a thin pretense here as well, and that if they're not even boasting about their archaeological progress or ambitions in this area, I mentioned they talk about Armenia and other places on their website. it seems like that's a rather thin pretext in this case if they don't have specifics they're pointing to. Well, I think it's a thin pretext for the Heritage Commission because, again, this is way outside of their mandate. Israel has made a great show of its archaeological findings, although several of those have come into question in recent years.

40:24There was a famous case just in the last year where a coin that was found was found then dated to be fraudulently created. So, and, you know, even to the extent, I mean, clearly there's a lot of important history in Israel, in Palestine that deserves attention. But there's no reason that that history can't be that of a shared history, a shared heritage and understood research developed in coordination and cooperation with the Palestinians rather than destroying their homes and displacing them from their historic land in order to promote a narrative ultimately. Let's put a B6. so people may have seen this news that under pressure from J Street, AOC like the increasing democratic opposition to continuing to fund the Israeli military which even Netanyahu has said we want to phase it out like we're done with this, these American subsidies section 224 of the NDAA tell us what it's doing, like it's described as effectively blending together the Israeli military and the Pentagon in a way that would make it basically impossible for critics to come in and say, we want this stopped.

41:40How would this, as somebody from the State Department whose job it was to oversee this relation, or not oversee the relationship, but heavily involved in relationship, what is the difference in this approach versus what we have had up until now? Yeah, thanks, Ryan. So first, let's start by taking a step back and realizing, I think, one fact everyone, I think, at this point can acknowledge. AIPAC are losing. The American people have had a transformation of opinion, public opinion, when it comes to Palestine and to Israel. You know, if we look at the current election cycle that you've been discussing, we see that there is very clearly an advance for those who stand up who are willing to call a genocide a genocide.

42:21and in that context what AIPAC are trying to do and Israel and their allies is essentially lock in the current relationship because they realize that you know the next these midterms might bring a shift in the house or in the senate or in both and it's just going to get continually harder and harder for them over time. Right now we give Israel 3.8 billion dollars of American taxpayer money every year for their military in fact in some years significantly more than that And that's just not going to be sustainable. I don't think anyone looking at current American politics, looking ahead, you know, five, ten years, imagines that members of Congress are going to be okay with continuing that funding.

42:58So if you're them, what do you do? How do you lock in the current relationship and get around the, you know... Democracy. The democracy, right. Exactly. The public opinion and Congress's increasing unwillingness to just sort of hand out American funds. And the way you do that is by entrenching the U.S.-Israel defense relationship so deep in the machinery of the Pentagon and in the production of America's industrial base that it becomes impossible to root out. And that's what this section of law, Section 224, is trying to do. This is part of something called the National Defense Authorization Act.

43:35It's an annual so-called must-pass bill. And it's going through the House Armed Services Committee tomorrow, Thursday, 4th of June. and this is in the base text. This has been put there by the chairman of the committee, Chairman Rogers. So it is going to be very hard to root out. I think we will have, you know, a shot tomorrow. Representative Ro Khanna is going to introduce an amendment to try and strip it out. If that fails, Republican Representative Thomas Massey has said he's going to try to pull it out on the floor. And if that fails, then we still have a battle to fight in the Senate. And again, when the two bills come together during what they call conference in November, December.

44:14But look, this is in some ways the ballgame. Once this language is in there, it first of all tells DOD that it has to do everything it can to integrate Israeli technology into American weapons platforms. It identifies a series of areas for US and Israel to cooperate and research together, including the most sensitive technologies you can imagine, biological technologies, quantum technologies, AI. and it creates an executive agent at the Pentagon whose job is to move this program forward, that's an executive agent who would be able to essentially overrule the people in charge of defense technology security at the Pentagon, the policy people, any of this.

44:54So once the ball starts rolling, it becomes very difficult to pull out. You see corporate contracts, government-to-government contracts, academic contracts being signed that are hard to unwind. and I think one of the worst aspects here, the final thing, is that it really flips the script on leverage. If you think about the US-Israel relationship right now, we have the leverage. We don't use it. We should. But it exists. But it exists. We can cut the funding. We can cut the weapons. Once you make American arms supply and the American warfighters advantage dependent on the Israeli supply chain, they can do that.

45:30They can say, well, we're not going to provide this technology anymore that enables your fighter jets, your electronic systems, whatever it might be. So it really puts us under their thumb. And their specialty is cyber weapons and cyber surveillance. American or multinational tech companies have already absorbed enormous numbers of Israeli startups that are involved in the cyberspace. And so there's already a ton of that in there. But that's technically largely private companies, even though they're very much linked up with Unit 8200 and others, other elements of the national security apparatus.

46:10But so if they are in the factories and their specialization is cyber weapons and cyber side, would that mean they basically have or could have kill switches and tracking on basically our entire industrial base, military industrial base? Yeah, well, first of all, let's recognize why Israel's cybersecurity and cyber surveillance ecosystem is so capable. It's very much the same way that America's pharmaceutical industry became so capable in the 60s and 70s with experiments that they could conduct on unwitting populations in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Today, Israel's cybersecurity industry can carry out experiments, essentially, on the unwitting Palestinian population.

46:55And that's what they've done. And then they take that technology that they've developed on Palestinians and sell it to, for example, ICE to use on Americans. But it's very clear that that ecosystem cannot be trusted. There's been a number of lawsuits, public lawsuits, for example. Meta has sued an organization called NSO Group, an Israeli spyware manufacturer. Which makes Pegasus. Which makes Pegasus. Apple has sued them too. There's an ongoing suit. Isn't Pegasus even banned by the U.S.? So, good question. Pegasus has been sanctioned by the U.S. along with a number of other companies that specialize in cyber intrusions intrusions and revealing the information, in part because Pegasus software was used to target American civilians and officials.

47:43Jamal Khashoggi. Jamal Khashoggi and others. So we're going to absorb a sanctioned entity and bring it into our own? So first of all, there's warning signs that those sanctions may be going away. There is movement right now within the State Department to try and repeal those limitations around the NSO group. But the NSO group is just the tip of the iceberg. As you noted, all of these organizations have deep, deep ties, personnel funding to Israel's Unit 8200, their equivalent of our National Security Agency. And Israel has shown no compunction whatsoever in its willingness to steal American technology, to steal American secrets, right?

48:24I mean, Jonathan Pollard, one of the most famous spies who stole American nuclear technology, is now in the Israeli Knesset. And this is the ecosystem that we're going to be bringing into our most sensitive military technology. It just is absolutely insane.

48:40Emily Jashinsky:Desperation. Yeah. So where are the leverage points? So you've got Kana and Massey. For people who are watching this and aren't all the way blackpilled, I can imagine a bunch of people just turn it off like, all right, we're cooked. Well, maybe the leverage points are the lobby from Apple and Meta. Yeah. Yeah. So the ones for people still watching who haven't completely given up hope. Yeah. Who do people talk to? So first of all, this isn't law yet. It's going through the committee, through the Armed Services Committee in the House tomorrow. But, you know, you can call your representatives today and ask them whether they're on the committee or know people on the committee not to support this, to support Congressman Conner's attempt to pull it out, to support Congressman Massey's attempt to pull it out on the floor if it comes to that.

49:24They should also be calling their senators to not put it into the Senate version of this bill. I think the more people are speaking about this, the more people are aware of it, they're feeling the pressure. So Mike Rogers - I could see it becoming a litmus test vote. I think it will be. There's a lot of things that are going to be a part of this year's NDAA process. You know, the president is seeking an incredible increase in military funding. But I think this is going to be very much a test, including for Republicans, because the Republican base doesn't like this either. And I think they don't want to see their members voting to integrate our defense system, our most sensitive technologies with a foreign country who can then use that as leverage.

50:04That's not America first. And I was going to say, Emily, you correct me if I'm wrong. You know this Republican conference better. They believe right now, as long as they have Trump's endorsement, they're safe. Trump will not be here forever. Not next cycle, but the one after.

50:19Emily Jashinsky:He'll be here forever. He might be here forever. He's the devil. Easy. He could last a long time. He's immortal. But let's say he isn't here forever. And let's say his influence over our political system fades. How dangerous do you think it could be to have this vote on your record in a Republican primary in a world in which there are open primaries because Trump is not able to just shut them off by endorsing people? Well, and this isn't really even just a Trump issue. This is a broader America first issue. And so I don't necessarily know that Trump is going to wade into primaries to defend people on a vote like this.

51:00Emily Jashinsky:But what I could see is people entering primaries because they now have this powerful tool to say, you voted for the most America last thing I could possibly think of. To let a foreign government into our military. Right. So that was just, I think that's just powerful on its own, not necessarily just in a sort of declining boomer power structure Republican Party that I think is powerful on its own. But it's the NDAA that's the thing. That's why they're putting it in the NDAA, because it makes it impossible for many people to vote against. That's why they're putting it there, because they can say, oh, you didn't vote for national defense.

51:36Emily Jashinsky:That's what they're doing. But there are plenty of opportunities along the way. And, you know, it's certainly not impossible, although it's certainly going to be difficult for a future Congress and a future administration to rescind this legislation. But the sooner if this makes it into law, the sooner that's done, the better, because the longer it is there, the harder it will be. Yeah, that's right. Well, Josh Paul from A New Policy, thanks so much for keeping us updated. Really appreciate it. Thank you. All right. Up next, election updates. It's 2026. We upgraded our phones, our cars, even our coffee.

52:08So why are we still acting like pleasure is negotiable? At Pink Cherry, it's not. They've got hundreds of toys that actually deliver, and if you don't know where to start, their mystery boxes make it easy. Go to PinkCherry.com and use promo code CHELSEA to save up to 80 % site-wide. Because life is hard, feeling good shouldn't be. PinkCherry.com, because everyone deserves pleasure. I turned off news altogether. I hate to say it, but I don't trust much of anything. It's the rage bait. It feels like it's trying to divide people. If we got clear facts, maybe we can calm down a little. NBC News brings you clear reporting.

52:54Let's meet at the facts. Let's move forward from there. NBC News, reporting for America. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Baja Mar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues, John Batiste's all-new jazz club, the Caribbean's most luxurious casino, and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like our 15-acre tropical water park, wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course, and so much more. Visit Baja Mar.com today.

53:32Emily Jashinsky:We're, of course, coming to you on Wednesday morning, and as of right now, we're looking at the latest. We can put this first element up on the screen. We have 63 % of the vote in in the Los Angeles mayoral election. And Karen Bass has 34.8 % of the vote. Spencer Pratt has 30.4 % of the vote. Nithya Raman all the way down at 22.3 % of the vote. But as Ryan and I were talking earlier in the show, actually, it's not impossible for Nithya Raman to pull this out based on the way that ballots are counted in Los Angeles. So Ryan, And I would say it's unlikely at this point that she's able to make up that eight points.

54:08Emily Jashinsky:But after early ballot dumps in the Rick Caruso race, he fell seven points. And like that's what happened when the last drops of ballots were counted. So it's possible, unlikely, but possible still that Nithya Rami could pull this off. And I, no offense to L.A., I don't have a dog in this fight. And so just objectively speaking, I think I'd rather be Nithya actually right now. Like if I were Spencer Pratt, I would not feel that that was enough of a lead. Because as Dayan was talking about on the program yesterday, usually Democrats get their ballots in earlier. But because the gubernatorial race with Swalwell getting thrown out and like nobody having any idea kind of how to vote.

54:58because the top two thing makes you, it makes your voting decision-making that much more complicated because you have to think strategically. Why rank choice voting is so much better because then you just, I don't have to like strategically game theory out how my other fellow citizens are going to vote. I can just say -

55:17Emily Jashinsky:You still kind of do that with rank choice, but yeah. But you can say one, two, three, four, five. Yeah, there's some strategy, but it's a little less. It's more like my favorite person is this person. second favorite is this one um with this one you're like well i like karen well i'd like karen bass but i'd rather vote for nithya because i don't want pratt to be in or or now nithya's rising so i'm gonna vote for it's like yeah so because you have to spend so much time thinking about it you need the most information and so therefore democrats waited until the last right up until election day for the most part to vote a lot of them did so that means there's many, many Democratic votes still out there compared to Republicans.

55:59So I'd be very nervous if I were Pratt.

56:01Emily Jashinsky:Well, he was not nervous even going into the race. Let's roll C2 here. Spencer Pratt, he said he would be over 50%. Take a look. Somebody gets 50 % plus one tomorrow. Race is over. How do you see this going? I believe I'm winning tomorrow night outright. I think there's a tsunami of votes coming from all the people that are done with politics as usual. They want an outsider. They want a disruptor. There is no polls that show it anywhere close to being 50 % for you. What do you say to that? I would say to all those people that I have, they're not talking to pollsters. They're moms trying to dodge naked zombies with a stroller.

56:40There are people walking their dogs to the park, making sure their dog doesn't step on a fentanyl needle or sniff some fentanyl or walk over human poop to get a matcha. Those people don't have time to talk to a pollster. Let's go.

56:53Emily Jashinsky:Let's go. All right, Ryan, you said he may not have enough of a lead to feel comfortable. I would counter that by saying it's also possible there's the sort of shy Pratt vote that might come on at the last minute. It does not look good. They were trying to sneak in when we saw them. Well, let's take a look at the gubernatorial results because it's not looking great for Steve Hilton in that race. because as of right now, we can put it up on the screen, 57.5 % of the vote is in. Hilton's at 27.8%. Javier Becerra is at 25.4%, or as Joe Biden would say, Baccaria, 25.4%, and Tom Steyer is at 19.6%.

57:30Emily Jashinsky:So again, with the way that California results are counted, if this next ballot drop goes the way people expect it to go, you may see Javier Becerra and Tom Steyer. Yeah. Yeah, again, I wouldn't want to be Hilton there. That's he's, he's going to be, yeah, he, he, yes. I think he might not make the top two, which is so crazy to think. Cause you look at that and you're like, oh, he's first, he's going to be fine. Right. Like, well, there's a lot more than there's a lot more votes than the numbers that you saw on that, which again, break California up. Yeah. Like what are you doing? No other state or country has a problem like this.

58:12Emily Jashinsky:One of the reasons I'm a bit skeptical that Rahman and—I don't know, it's a little different than the gubernatorial race, but in Rahman's situation in particular, Pratt's candidacy is predicated on the idea of bringing in people perhaps from the left or center-left. So it doesn't seem impossible to me that he's different than a Rick Caruso. I don't know about Steve Hilton. I think Steve Hilton, that's a different question. But it is possible that it's not going to be exactly like other races where the late ballot drops were way more favorable to the left. We could see a more similar margin just solidifying.

58:48It's true. And yeah, if there's a whole bunch of Karen Bass votes that don't go to Nithya. Right. Or if Becerra gets a ton of the Democratic votes that are outstanding rather than them being split between him and Steyer, then yeah. So the Republicans, they're in the race. It's still possible for them.

59:09Emily Jashinsky:Unbelievable. We'll tell you in about a month when they're done counting. Yeah, we'll get back to probably around the 4th of July. Yeah. Unbelievable routing. That's not getting talked about enough for Katie Porter. She's at 4.6 percent of 230 ,000 votes right now. Unbelievable routing of Katie Porter. So some good news for somebody like Katie Porter. You see this in politicians where it's like you have you have she was a House member on the Financial Services Committee. she was extremely good at that uh she she deeply understands finance and and it's the it's predatory nature and she was able to use the position that she had to advance the agenda that she has and she just kept hunting for other like positions i i and i've seen it so many times in politics it's like just stop like like you're good like Nancy Mace, I was like, this lady's going to flame out somehow.

1:00:11And she runs for governor. Why?

1:00:13Emily Jashinsky:Why not? You can have that house seat. YOLO. You can probably have that house seat forever, despite all of the shenanigans going on in your office and in your personal life. But then they go for something else that they're just not, you just know you're not going to reach it. And so this is Katie Porter, she went for the Senate, right? She went for this. Yeah. flopping each time. And now that position that she had where she was able to really punish these bank banks and CEOs, she doesn't have anymore. And so crypto wins, Wall Street wins. And she loses and the public loses. Because I think she was like a genuinely useful weapon to have in the House of Representatives.

1:00:59Emily Jashinsky:If you're progressive, it's certainly fair to see it that way. And yeah. And I think even like if you're anybody that wants to see bankers progressive or not, if you want if you want to see bankers squirm in their seats and who doesn't want to see bankers squirm in their seats. But anyway, so nobody takes my advice. Let's head to New Jersey, Ryan. So Adam Hamillie. So this is the this is the doctor who the New York Post and Jewish Insider were accusing of having Al Qaeda links. Actually, I just saw Mike Lawler. Let me see if I still have this up. This is Mike Lawler. He tweeted out, how in the hell, this is the New York 17, like Republican member of Congress who's always palling around with Josh Gottheimer.

1:01:46He says, how in the hell has a defense witness in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing with ties to al-Qaeda been nominated by the Democrats to serve in Congress? That's almost that's very similar to to the subhead on the New York Times article about his his victory. You know, he also served eight years in the military. He was a combat surgeon. The al-Qaeda thing in 1994. we talked about this in the program in 1994 he volunteered with an organization that a decade later was rated as a front for al-qaeda also 1994 the only people that knew who al-qaeda was was basically the cia it was probably funding them like no no people no unless you like fought in afghanistan like knew who al-qaeda even was it was 1998 when they hit the the call and the um embassy that they that they become like a thing that people know about so i mean i'm retconning this yes retconning that to say he's therefore is al-qaeda has lawlor served in does lawlor serve in iraq i don't think so like it's yeah it's it's you want to criticize him for um for knowing the blind sheik and getting called to testify in that trial go ahead whatever i think

1:03:04Emily Jashinsky:there's fair i think there's pretty fair criticisms of homawi's prior like associations but we asked people can go watch it we asked him all these questions his answer was like look the Muslim community is extremely small everybody knew everybody I knew that guy yeah which is maybe not the best defense but actually people can the people in New Jersey had their opportunity to yeah listen and hear out the arguments and they went with him yeah so and so he won so um the thing he's known for most recently is doing multiple rotations as a volunteer uh doctor in hospitals in Gaza. And we reported on him at the time, two years ago, where the Israelis had surrounded the hospital that he was in, cut off the water supply.

1:03:47The Western doctors inside the hospital, some of them were on like IV drips because of the Israeli siege of the hospital. They were trying to get the Western doctors to leave and not be replaced by another rotation of Western doctors so that they could then raid the hospital. And he refused. And even when some in his rotation left, he and two others stayed saying, we're not leaving until another rotation of Western doctors comes in. And under massive international pressure, particularly it came from Tammy Duckworth, whose life he saved as a combat surgeon in Iraq, the Israelis buckled and allowed another wave of Western doctors to come in and replace him.

1:04:30So then he went back out. And now he's going to Congress. And Mike Lawler can sit and spin.

1:04:37Emily Jashinsky:Yeah. They are going to have a lot to feast on in the next, how long is this going to be? It's a very blue sea, too. Yeah. So he's going to win. He's going to Washington. I think he'll try to use him in other races. That would be my assumption. Go ahead. Go ahead. Go for it. And then in Iowa, this race has been moved by the Cook Political Report to toss up because of who Democrats nominated for their gubernatorial pick. Josh Turek. Yeah, Schumer dropped$9 million to boost Turek here. Looks like it worked. It certainly worked. So he beat Zach Walls by almost, what, 25 points there. And yeah, he's the Paralympian.

1:05:22Emily Jashinsky:Yeah. Kind of populist as well, right? Yeah, he won a we we we talked about this. I think his record has been slightly fudged about the district that he won. But it is it is true to say that the district that he represents in the House went for Trump. It's also it's Council Bluffs, which is a kind of a suburb of of Omaha. It does have some conservative, serious conservative streak to it. They do have a history of nominating Democrats at the low at the state level or electing Democrats at the state level. But yeah, well, so we'll see. In a wave year with, I think, what, Hinson, Representative Hinson is the Republican nominee, just kind of a corporate Republican.

1:06:08In a blue wave year, certainly this Iowa is on the map.

1:06:12Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, hugely on the map. We should also—and I wanted to mention another Iowa race. This is—we can put up on the screen the next element. This is the Maha-backed candidate, Zach Lane, beats Randy Feenstra. This is Trump's endorsement in Iowa for the gubernatorial primary. Trump's first loss. Feenstra got a last-minute endorsement from Trump. Zach Lane is a Maha farmer guy. He has worked for a Tea Party group in 2014, 2015. We've got to get Zach Lane on. He's an interesting candidate. So interesting. Yeah, he's been pounding the glyphosate stuff. Maha is really, really optimistic about what they just saw.

1:06:51Emily Jashinsky:And actually, he's kind of using it to take a little victory lap and say, the grassroots is Maha. And the grassroots is going to—you can't take for granted the grassroots support that you get from Maha as a Republican MAGA candidate. And Feincher, this did not work for him. Zach Lane was also endorsed by Turning Point Action, I think it was. And this all worked out great for Zach Lane, who, despite the last-minute intervention of Donald Trump, Lane's seen as kind of more MAGA, like seen as more hardline. Feincher's seen a bit as more establishment. So, man, quite an interesting outcome. Trump's first loss, we were talking about last week, he had all these screenshots up on his true social about how he was the undefeated king of this primary cycle.

1:07:41Emily Jashinsky:100 % of his picks down the line. Totally true. He didn't really do much in the Iowa race. He just tossed out an endorsement literally on Friday. It wasn't much. He wasn't trying to sway this result in one way or the other for the most part. But the endorsement itself didn't work. Usually that endorsement's enough. He's now at 99%. Usually just a tweet does it. You'd think. But, yeah, Lane had a lot of support. So that's definitely, you're right, we should get him on the show. That's one to follow. Montana had some interesting results as well, Ryan. Yes, this kind of union smokejumper, Sam Forstag, who Bernie and AOC backed him.

1:08:16AOC had a rally for him. I said yesterday the progressive vote between him and Cleveland would probably be split too much for him to win. Shows what I know. Well, we'll see. This progressive vote is split here. But he's currently up by 3 ,000 votes and four points. NBC calling it too close to call, but you'd rather be Forstag right there. That would be a win for the AOC, particularly going into Montana. and making the case that this is not just a Bronx and Queens populism, that it can work around the country. Aaron Flint is the Republican nominee who replaces Ryan Zinke. So it's a Republican-leaning seat, but it's a competitive seat.

1:09:14And in a blue-wave year, you could imagine this being a flip. But D.C. Democrats wanted Brian Busey, like the more corporate Democrat. So it's nice when Democrats or voters have this opportunity to say, no, no, no, actually running a populist is a better tactical move. It's one thing to say, OK, I like them better. I like their policies better. It's another thing to be able to demonstrate, no, this is actually the way to win as well.

1:09:46Emily Jashinsky:With Turek, I think there's a good example, too, of the same thing you're talking about. Let's go back to California. We're going to do Viegas, Matsui, and Gonzalez. So let's start with Viegas, Ryan. What are you taking a look at here? Yeah, we had Randy Viegas on a week and a half ago or so. He's a community college professor and an auto shop owner from Bakersfield. DCCC endorsed against him, endorsed Jasmine Baines. Democratic majority for Israel came in big for Baines. spent millions, like the attack ads on, on Villegas were just absolutely relentless. And, you know, it's not, it's not over yet, but we're looking at, you know, he's up 2000 votes.

1:10:31He's in second place behind David Vallado, the Republican, but he's, he's in, he's on track to make the top two. We'll see.

1:10:41Emily Jashinsky:All right, let's go to California 7. Ryan, what are we looking at here in the Doris Matsui results? People may remember Mae Vang, who was on the show recently. She's challenging Doris Matsui, incumbent Democrat in her 80s, longtime support from APAC and from corporate PACs, like a very standard kind of corporate Democrat. She and her husband have held this seat, I think, for like 40 plus years collectively. Doris Matsui took out a bunch of money and helped and her backers put together a super PAC that supported this guy, Zach Wooden, who was like a Republican college student because they were trying to get him into the top two.

1:11:24And so right now you've got Doris Matsui at 32 ,000 votes, Mei Vang at 26 ,000. and Zach Wooden, the college kid, at 25 ,000. So May Vang is ahead of Wooden by 0.8. But as we were saying earlier, there's so many Democratic votes out compared to Republican votes that he would have to be kind of way ahead to survive the wave that's coming in. Now, and so Matsui and May Vang will make the top two. Matsui went all out to try to keep Mei Vang out of the general because I believe that her team is convinced that Mei Vang will beat her in the general. That there's a lot of incumbent resentment there. Also, the local papers have been turning on Matsui.

1:12:20They did good. It shows the value of good journalism. Like they exposed that it was Matsui and her backers that were boosting this Republican college kid.

1:12:29Emily Jashinsky:Very interesting. And so that matters. And a lot of congressional districts, that media infrastructure just doesn't exist anymore. This is Sacramento and there's a Sacramento Bee and other outlets. And then California 34. Yeah. Jimmy Gomez, another kind of corporate APEC backed incumbent. APEC bailed him out big time in a previous, I think it was a 2024 race. Justice Democrats ran Angela Gonzalez Torres against him. and she's losing by 20, but it's enough that she's going to make the general election. Right. So we'll get back in November. Actually, it'll be December by the time we know California's November.

1:13:11Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, and Gomez is under the 50 % mark as of now with 60 % of the votes in. So if he crosses that threshold, good for him. If not, there'll be the two of them. Well, even in the House, right? Even in the House, if you win 51%, you still have to go to the general. but either way race that you get he went out right that's right yeah but either he doesn't have over the 50 threshold meaning that there's room for gonzalez torres to make up a lot be a tough coalition because you would need you would need republicans who don't like gomez but they won't vote or right if there's top two if if the top two uh in the governor's race are democrats then yes the Republican turnout is going to be low which will be very good by the way as we were talking about yesterday for the billionaire tax so right if you can get two Democrats in the governor's race keep the Republicans on the couch then the billionaire tax has more chance of going through man some interesting stuff we'll keep our eye on all of these races going forward

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