7/14/26: Trump Says US Is Hormuz Guardian, Oil Crisis Looms, ICE Shootings In Maine And Texas

24:29Like, it's going to be fine. Like, it's nothing's completely fallen apart yet. So we'll work it out. I think he believes he's touched by God. I also think a lot of his advisors believe that. I think so too. It's very scary. Did you read the regime change book or some of it? Yeah, I did. And so when you read that, you're like, one of the things that a lot of his advisors, they always defer to him because they're like, well, you do have to give it to him. He always wriggles his way out of something. And this is the one where there's just the perfect alchemy, I feel like, of the war, expenditure of resources, ego, the Strait of Hormuz, oil.

25:06It all just came together where this is the one that actually will break him, I think, ultimately. Because you're either going to have to have defeat or we invade, and both is a defeat, in my opinion. And it's Basically, you know, we talked previously months ago about how this is the end of his presidency. And this is the definitional point of how it will just never end. Like it will just continue to be in the background, a thorn. For a few weeks, it may subside. For a few weeks, it may not. But we're always going to end up back here if we don't solve the fundamental questions. And I think the other thing, he's planning the speech Thursday night that's supposed to be about the 2020 election being rigged by foreign influence, blah, blah, blah.

25:42We don't know all the details yet. But it may have to do with, you know, Venezuela and cutting some sort of a deal. I don't know. But I feel like that is both an attempt to try to seize control of the midterms. Wouldn't be surprised if there was some national emergency that was declared or some powers that were grabbed to try to change the results of what the midterms are likely to be. But also another thing for people to be very justifiably upset about. So they're talking about that and not what a disaster his Iran messes. It's a very obvious ploy to – because, I mean, do we really think he's going to seize – I mean, look, I just honestly don't think so.

26:18I think it will be a massive in-kind donation to the Ossoff campaign and to the Warnham campaign. But what we do know – well, first of all, it doesn't diminish how bad it is. Like, let's be honest. It's a disaster. Like, to go out there and say, like, oh, the election in which I presided over, by the way, because I was the president, was somehow rigged. It's like, okay. You know, you'd have a better shot at saying that about 2024. but in reality what it is and we know this from him he wants to change the narrative he likes when people freak out it's his personal project so this though it just you know you see it today like you have to just keep coming back to iran it is the biggest story in the world it will remain so now for quite some time there's just no getting out of it unless you uh basically unless you cry uncle.

27:02So, all right, let's get to Dr. Trita Parsi. He's standing by for us. And now another appliance triumph from our friends at Grand Appliance. I love hosting summer parties, but dread reaching over a hot oven door to juggle appetizer trays. So I asked the experts at Grand Appliance for advice, and they recommended a Bosch wall oven with side swing doors for easier access. It's amazing. No reaching over the heat, and they installed it in no time. Host like a pro with expert advice from Grand Appliance. Shop grandappliance.com. He's dribbling the ball with everything on the line. He's driving down the pitch.

27:40He's facing price hikes and cuts past him. Carrier contracts tries to block him. Oh, he leaves him in the dust. He's at the edge of the box. He cuts past the nonstop group chat trash talk. He clears on goal. He shoots. No! Unlimited data for$25 a month forever. Visit your local Boost Mobile store today to get unlimited data with a price that never changes. Boost Mobile. After 30 GB, customers may experience lower speeds. Customers will pay$25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost$25 unlimited plan. My name is Arnold Bogarty, and prior to me, I enrolled in Rasmussen to become a nurse.

28:12I spent 16 years in the military, 12 in Special Forces as an Army Green Beret, and I was recommended to Rasmussen by a former student. She said she loved the culture. It was a family atmosphere. I went to visit the campus. The facilities were amazing. I knew before I left that that was the school that I was going to attend. Rasmussen University. Are you ready to be your own hero online and on campus? Learn more at rasmussen.edu. For more analysis of the Iran War and also this wild regime change plot involving Ahmadinejad, that is just too crazy to believe. We are joined now by Dr. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute and also author of the Trita Parsi sub stack that you all should go subscribe to.

28:56Great to see you, sir. Good to see you. Good to be with you guys. Yeah, so we've just been talking about all of the updates, how it appears that Trump is trying to set up some sort of forever war dynamic. You've got a new piece up on your sub stack. We can put this up on the screen. You say a new U.S.-Iran war would end where the last one did. The fundamentals remain unchanged. Iran can threaten Hormuz. the U.S. can punish Iran and neither can secure its objectives through force. So what do you make of the developments this week, which seemed to be a significant break from the previous dynamic where we would have some limited bombing over the weekend and then some market-timed announcement of new talks and negotiations?

29:36This is a clear break from that in which Trump has just completely shifted his position. I mean, we're back at war. We're back at war. The Iranians have put back the closure of the straits. Trump is putting back today the blockade of the blockade. We're going back to the previous dynamics without any of the fundamentals changing in a positive way for the United States. When you take a look at, for instance, the stockpile and inventory of global oil. Remember, Vance made a statement that the MOU was to be used to stock things up and then see where things are. Well, it hasn't stocked up. We're talking about a 5 % recovery during the MOU in terms of how much the global oil inventory has dropped.

30:22The Strategic Petroleum Reserve of the United States is still down. So none of these things have happened, which means that the runway for the United States, the amount of time it would take before this war would lead to a major economic crisis, is much shorter than it was back in February. On top of that, we're only 16 weeks away from the midterm elections. And of course, the secondary and third level repercussions of the previous oil shock have not been fully felt yet. So to start this war in this manner at this moment just makes absolutely zero sense, unless Trump has figured out some sort of a brilliant military strategy that had not been used before that could put an end to this war within a week or two.

31:08And I very much doubt that. So this is, I think, more a manifestation that there were some errors made by both sides, some exaggerated reactions to a couple of things that happened. But then this sudden, massive overreaction and Trump just being in a bad place and decided that this is not good enough. And I think this is a problem that is going to be recurring if we ever manage to get back to diplomacy. Trump seems to need this kind of constant assembly line of positive developments, positive feedback to stick to that line. And if he doesn't get it, he just does a 180. And you're just not going to be able to resolve a conflict of 47 years between two countries with that type of a straight line, never a bump in the road type of approach.

31:54Especially, you know, in the middle of negotiations, they just threaten to kill the people who are at the table. Potentially doesn't help. One of the things, sir, that you're highlighting is about the runway in the global economy. And not enough people are paying attention. We have B1 that we can just show some of the footage. But it does appear, you know, with the resumption of these hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, reports are coming out here of Washington that the United States, Trump, spoke with MBS and Saudi Arabia to actually greenlight some of these strikes. Obviously, this could bring not just the Houthis into war with Saudi Arabia, but it could bring them also into a blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which would only further exacerbate this energy crisis.

32:38What do you make of Trump's decision to greenlight a resumption of hostilities with Saudi Arabia and Yemen? Why would he do so? Why would Saudi Arabia want to do so? And what are the implications for us all? So first, I think it's important to understand that the Yemeni dynamic has its own dynamic, but it's happening in the context of this larger problem in the region. But if we look at that dynamic first and foremost, there was a UN Security Council resolution. I forgot which year it was, 2017 or so. Oh, right, it must have been a little bit earlier. In which a blockade was put on the Houthis.

33:13even though the Iranians and the Saudis normalize relations, that UN resolution was never lifted. It's still in place and the Saudis still want to keep it in place. And they want to make sure that the Houthis are not using this normalization to rebuild official logistical lines between Iran and Yemen. And during this funeral of the supreme leader, it seems like the Iranians took the opportunity to challenge that a bit because they sent the plane to Sana 'a to pick up Houthi officials to fly them to the funeral. The Saudis tried to stop that. They couldn't. But now when that plane is returning, they attack the airport and force the plane to land at Huayda instead of landing in Sana 'a.

33:58So I think this is part of that dynamic. But as you pointed out, it is taking place within the context in which you're seeing Trump simply being in an escalatory mold. So, you know, to be frank at this point, if any of the leaders in the region were to call him right now and ask him for a green light for some sort of a military action that they could frame as being a devastating blow to Iran, I suspect that he would say yes to it without thinking twice. Right. Good point. So is it your sense that the MOU is basically dead at this point? I mean, the thing was signed and then they never even really got to the 60-day negotiations, which were meant to tackle these more difficult issues involving the nuclear program, involving control over the Strait of Hormuz, that never really even developed.

34:45And now here we are, you know, barreling back towards full-scale hostilities. I think the MOU is dead. That does not mean that it cannot be revived. At some point, they're probably going to come to the conclusion that this is not working and there needs to be a return to some form of a ceasefire. There's problems with the MOU. There's ambiguities that were too big, clearly. But if you want to start off from scratch, that's going to be a very, very difficult task. So I think if there is a return to diplomacy, if we're lucky enough that that happens, it's going to at least be built on the MOU. Some changes, obviously, but it's not going to start off from scratch.

35:24But I think the one thing that may change, that may cause them to go back to the table, is not that the fundamentals have changed in anyone's favor in a particular way, But rather that the allure, that military action can change the facts on the ground in a manner that shifts the dynamics and the negotiations in any one side, that allure I think is going to be gone because I think it will be clear after the second round that it's really not going to change anything in a significant manner. Yeah, but that's my question, sir. So, you know, when we talk about this and get – so it's not just the United States that has to bring – has to come to the table.

36:02What about the Iranian side? Because you had talked previously. There are major divides in Iranian political society. The most noteworthy statement was from the Supreme Leader, who basically said something along the lines of, I didn't want to do this, but I'm going to listen to my advisors. I mean, I don't know how much agency he himself has, but what will it take for Iran to come back to the table after all of these resumption of hostilities? It's going to be extremely difficult to get back to the table. The Iranians, first of all, I do think that the Iranians also committed mistakes. I think it was an overreaction to shooting at some of these ships.

36:37I think this could have been handled differently. I do think that the Iranian suspicion that the United States was trying to build a southern corridor that would be out of the control of the Iranians, that would be able to be operational even if war resumed, essentially taking Iran's leverage away from the strait is probably a plausible suspicion that the Iranians have because it makes perfect sense for the United States to try to do something like that. But nevertheless, to do it within the MOU essentially means that you're not really pursuing the negotiations, you're pursuing a different path under the guise of negotiations.

37:16Nevertheless, setting that aside, I think what has happened here over the course of the last three or so weeks is that I detected a significant darkening in the mood in Iran in terms of them becoming increasingly convinced that the United States was likely or if not inevitable that it would attack again. They were seeing all kinds of signs that indicated to them that Trump was not going to follow through with the diplomacy. I think the Israeli-Lebanese agreement was one such sign. Another one that got far less attention is that Marco Rubio, right before mediating the Lebanese-Israeli agreement, which contradicted the NYU in my view, also went to the GCC states, got them all together, and got even the Omanis to sign on to an official statement that essentially rejected.

38:03previous ideas that the Omanis themselves had put forward about a joint management of the Strait of Hormuz. And afterwards, Rubio said, it doesn't matter. It cannot be a toll. It cannot be a fee. Everything has to go back to exactly the way they were before February 27th, when the United States started the war. That also, I think, suggested to the Iranians that the U.S. is not going to have any flexibility because it's essentially changing its position on the strait. That's how they perceived it and pushed them in the direction of thinking that if there's going to be a war, it's better for the Iranians to close the strait earlier rather than allow the United States to choose the timing of the war on its own.

38:43Having said that, I think the Iranians made an assumption. It may not have been absolutely solid. And by that, they may have made the war that they thought they could avoid inevitable. Do you have any sense of or any theories or do the Iranians have any theories of how long before, you know, oil really spikes and we have, you know, massive global economic fallout in a way that becomes very politically painful, more so than it already has been for Trump? I think what happened with the MOUs the last couple of weeks of negotiations, we saw that the Iranians were very slow. You know, they were neither saying yes to the proposals, no or no, they were dragging out time.

39:23And part of the reason why they were doing so was to actually get the global economy to suffer even further to strengthen their hand in those negotiations. There were some last minute changes that were made to the proposal. And there are voices in Iran that believe that they should have held out even longer, that Trump was really in a desperate situation and they should have pushed further rather than agreed to it at the time. I suspect that this time around, if this continues in the manner that it seems to be continuing, they will intensify that. They know very well that their starting point is worse for the US.

39:57They know very well that the political runway is even shorter. They themselves have suffered because they have replenished a lot of oil on the waters, but not to the same numbers that they had before the war started. So they too are at a lower level. But I think they believe that in the short run, they have a higher pain tolerance than the United States does. If this ends up becoming a low intensity war that goes on for a very long time, then I I think the Iranians will be in a much worse situation. One thing we also wanted to discuss with you, sir, before, let's put it up here, is a New York Times investigation about an Israeli secret operation to cultivate Ahmadinejad of all people, where it appears that for the last several years they have been meeting with him secretly all across the world, that part of the scheme in bombing his residence was to take out his IRGC captors, to then smuggle him to some black site inside of Iran by a Mossad agent, until Ahmadinejad himself appears to have left of his own volition and decided that the entire regime change operation that was built upon him actually taking power and somehow becoming pro-Israel decided he himself that it wasn't going to work, and he now appears to be back under IRGC protection, I guess you could call it.

41:18There's a lot going on here, but just what does this tell us about Israel's plot to actually have regime change in Iran? It's the best way of describing it. There's a lot going on. Look, what to make of this? Let me start off by saying, look, I don't find this to be completely implausible. looking at the trajectory of Ahmadinejad, the manner in which he really broke with the system. He had this huge fallout with Khamenei. He was marginalized. He was ostracized in the Iranian political system for quite some time. And this is a person of significant ambition. And as a result, the idea that he could go in this direction, I don't think is implausible.

42:04The idea that the Israelis would think that this would be like one of the, this would be the Moby Dick of all flips that they could achieve, getting someone like Ahmadinejad to flip to their side. I think it is something that is so attractive that I wouldn't at all hold it beyond them that they would try. Now, the rest of the story, did he actually flip? Was it that he changed his mind after his house accidentally got bombed? Or is it that he changed this? This was never sincere from his end at the outset that this was actually a double effort, I have no idea. And I don't know if we ever will find out.

42:39But I do want to note that it does appear that he is in some form of a house arrest in Iran. He was not seen for most of the war until he was seen surrounded by bodyguards during the funeral. People I've spoken to in Iran have also said that they find this plausible. And I think given the penetration that the Israelis have had of the Iranian system, again, And it is impossible to say that this is just a complete impossibility. This could never have happened. But nevertheless, some core elements of this may be true, but the larger framing of it is still unclear to me as to whether this was really an effort by him to flip to that side or if this was something more complicated than that.

43:25One thing I want to add, though, I think the biggest loser, the person that probably is feeling the worst reading that New York Times story is Reza Pallavi. after everything he did to sell out to the Israelis and find out that they were actually more inclined to go with Ahmadinejad than with him tells you a lot. Incredible. And just as a reminder for our audience who may be younger, don't remember the details. I mean, he was a hardliner when he was president. He was really held up as this global villain. We pulled a little throwback clip of Netanyahu talking about Ahmadinejad at the UN. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

43:57Yesterday, the man who calls the Holocaust a lie spoke from this podium. To those who refuse to come and to those who left in protest, I commend you. You stood up for moral clarity and you brought honor to your countries. But to those who gave this Holocaust denier a hearing, I say on behalf of my people, the Jewish people, and decent people everywhere, have you no shame? Have you no decency?

44:48A mere six decades after the Holocaust, You give legitimacy to a man who denies the murder of six million Jews while promising to wipe out the state of Israel, the state of the Jews? And he's not lying there. I mean, Ahmadinejad was slash is question mark a Holocaust denier. It reminds me very much of the flip of Al Jelani from terrorist to, hey, we'll work with him. I mean, he's president of Syria. Come to the U.S. We'll lift sanctions. You know, as long as you let Israel do what they want to do in occupying a portion of Syria. Yeah. And look, also keep one thing in mind. The Israelis in the early years of them forming their state recruited a lot of Nazis from Germany to help build up their weapon systems.

45:36So there's a long history of the Israelis setting aside those things. You can call it pragmatic. You can say that it shows that the accusation of anti-Semitism is hollow. They're OK with them as long as they help Israel advance Israel's interests. But there's a long history of this. So again, there's a lot going on in this story, as you said, Sagar. But at the same time, a lot of it that is not implausible. The last thing that I wanted to ask you about this story is they also talk about this plan to arm and train Iranian Kurdish opposition. They're based in northern Iraq. They're supposed to cross into Western Iran, hold territory there, move toward Tehran.

46:15This is something Trump has gestured toward multiple times. This part of the plan also seems to have completely fallen apart for whatever reason, never materialized. I'm also wondering if some of these pieces are why Trump was so convinced that this would be a three, four day bombing campaign and then it would be all done and dusted and new Iran, new pro-American, pro-Israeli Iran would be born. And it may very well have been part of the reason why he was under this illusion this would take four days. But even if they had managed to arm the Kurds and even if they had gone in and invaded Iran from northern Iraq, it would not, frankly, have mattered.

46:57This would not have been a three to four day ordeal. This was stopped primarily by the Turks and Iraq's northern Kurdish government themselves realizing what a disaster it would be. and the high price that Kurdistan in northern Iraq would pay because of the Iranian retaliation. So it was a fantasy on all sides regardless. In some ways, Trump got lucky that this element of the plan never was fully implemented because it would probably have made the situation worse for everyone without changing the final outcome. My last question for you, sir. The Israel basically issue that belies all of this, we actually have not seen a resumption of the bombing between the two.

47:40We have not seen, at least for now, a full-scale resumption of what we previously saw in Lebanon and with Hezbollah. So that also seems to be underlying this whole thing, but of course can rear its head at any moment. How do you see the Israeli factor in all of this going forward? Right now, we've only talked about the United States and Iran, but what about Israel? I think it's a great question. I do wonder whether Netanyahu wants to keep a lower profile on this issue. I mean, if Trump is starting the war on its own, perfect for Netanyahu. He doesn't have to have his fingerprints on it. He doesn't have to be accused of having pushed Trump in that direction.

48:19So if Trump himself is going that direction, why would Netanyahu interfere now? Can Israel at some point join the war? Perhaps the thinking is that it's actually better that that it doesn't, that it leaves this as an Iranian-American war that Trump himself fully owns. But also keep in mind, he's supposedly going to come here this week, and there's a lot on his agenda. And if he had shown up here three weeks ago, he would have shown up as a loser, as someone who dragged Trump into the wrong war, who told him fairy tales of what would happen, who was unpopular at home, is facing difficulties, was heavily criticized because the U.S.

48:55and Iran signed a memorandum that really went against Israeli interest in Lebanon. Instead, he's now showing up and he's going to say, hey, I told you so. I told you that you can't do diplomacy with Iranians. And I told you you shouldn't give them these things in Lebanon, etc. So it's remarkable how much his fortunes have shifted just in three weeks. Right. Very true. Dr. Trita Parsi, thank you as always for your analysis. Very much appreciated. Thanks so much for having me. Appreciate it. Thank you, sir. Thank you. And now, another appliance triumph from our friends at Grand Appliance. With three kids, I'm always cramming the washer full.

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50:55We have another ICE killing, this one in Maine, to sadly report on this morning. This comes on the heels of a very similar incident that unfolded in Houston last week. Of course, this is going to be disturbing. We do have some video here and some details here that are quite horrifying. Let's go ahead and put the video up on the screen. Now, you can see here this white car that is sort of slowly circling. This is the car that the victim, a 26-year-old from Colombia, who appears to have been applying for asylum war on his status in a moment. These appear to be the moments after he had already been shot in the head.

51:36As we learned with the Renee Good case, you know, if you're shot and killed, the car does not immediately stop. That is why it is circling here slowly. So you don't actually hear the gunfire in this video. This appears to be the aftermath of what occurred here from this stop. We have another video that has been circulating as well, where after they bring the car to a stop, They actually pull him out of the vehicle and handcuff him, even though he had already been shot in the head. There are also reports that his wife and young child came quickly to the scene and witnessed all of this. Just absolutely horrifying situation.

52:15We're also getting details of both from authorities of their claims of what unfolded here and also from eyewitnesses. Let's put C3 up on the screen. This is the ICE statement, which I think is quite noteworthy, actually. ICE responds to the officer-involved shooting in Maine. On July 13, 2026, at approximately 7 a.m. Eastern time, ICE was conducting targeted surveillance on the last known address of an illegal alien with a final order of removal. An illegal alien departed the residence in a vehicle. ICE law enforcement attempted to conduct a vehicle stop. The vehicle attempted to flee the scene.

52:51And fearing for public safety, an officer discharged his weapon. The reason I emphasize this is because in previous cases, they've insisted that the officer was actually in danger and that was the justification for the shooting. Here they said they feared for public safety and that they fired their weapon because of this. Now, this is against any sort of protocol. Also, this particular man, this 26-year-old Colombian, he was not the target of the investigation. So this is just some random guy that they were aggressively pulling over. That is an extraordinary admission here that the officers themselves did not claim to feel in danger.

53:33Nevertheless, they shot him anyway. The driver of the vehicle was struck. Emergency services were immediately contacted. He passed away from his injuries. The Biddeford Police Department and FBI responded to the scene. DHS OIG has been notified. And like all discharge of firearms, this will be investigated as developing situation. And we will update the public when more information is available. Let's go back to C2. This is what a witness on the scene claimed. Daniel Boucher was getting ready for work Monday morning when he heard what sounded like fireworks going off outside of his home near downtown Biddeford.

54:05He rushed to the window where he saw an SUV trying to ram a small white car in the intersection. Moments later, agents in Vest stopped the car and pulled the driver out. He was bleeding profusely from the head, Boucher said later Monday morning. He was talking. He said, I tried to stop. Those appear to have been his final words, if this account is correct. Boucher watched in disbelief as the man's legs stopped moving as he lay on the ground. He believes he watched him die. What we know about this man, not that this really changes anything based on the details of the incident. This would not be justified no matter who this was.

54:40But what we know of him is, as I said before, he was not the target of this operation. So this is just some random man that they're pulling over. He was, appears to have been applying for asylum. He had a work permit. He had been issued a social security number, which is typical during the asylum process. That doesn't mean he had legal status, but typically the way that this works is you're granted a work permit. You can work. You're paying your taxes. That's why you get the social security number, and then you're waiting for your claim to be adjudicated. This has, of course, caused a major political uproar, major uproar in general in the state of Maine, huge protests.

55:17We've got a statement from the Maine AG. We can put that up on the screen. C4 basically just indicating that there is going to be a an investigation, a thorough investigation. There have also been already significant protests outside of Susan Collins office, and she has put out, Sagar, a very sort of milquetoast statement here. The shooting in Biddeford requires a full and impartial investigation of what happened. And it is my understanding that the Biddeford police have secured the site and that the FBI is investigating. No mention of ICE here whatsoever. You know, the most Susan Collins statement you can possibly imagine.

55:53And, of course, many people are pointing out she was the deciding vote on the latest tranche of ICE,$70 billion in ICE funding. I'll tell you, I am so shocked by this because I was telling you all behind the scenes. I was in this town. I was in this town. And I'll tell you, it's the whitest town I've ever been to. Very small proportion of immigrants. I'm not kidding. They have a Walmart, grocery, no offense, Biddeford, shout out. I liked it there. That's where I was charging my car, but it's literally like we're talking about a grocery store, a couple restaurants. It's not a big town. So when I saw ICE shooting in Biddeford, I said, Biddeford?

56:24I was just there. This is crazy. Actually, can we put C3 back up on the screen, the ICE statement? These guys are hit, and we all know it. This is a disaster because if you parse this language, when they say ICE was conducting targeted surveillance on a last known address of an illegal alien, they then say an illegal alien. Do you notice that? Not the illegal alien. So what they're saying is a different person departed a residence in a vehicle. They then continue about the attempted to conduct a vehicle stop. But this vehicle attempting to flee the scene, fearing for public safety, an officer discharged his weapon.

57:01This means, I was reading some of the initial protocol. You should keep in mind, this statement was not issued until 6.41 p.m. yesterday. The shooting took place at 7 a.m. There was also a very noteworthy incident. Stephen Miller was on CNN in the interim between these two. Normally, he is the one to, they deserved it. The guy fired his weapon. He said, quote, I have not been briefed on the shooting, which I think we all know that's bullshit. So there are two things. The fact that Miller and the white house did not immediately come out to try to justify it to that. This ice statement basically acknowledges two different things that they were going for a final order of removal against somebody.

57:43Let's explain what that is. Final order of removal means a judge has found like you have no legitimate claim to asylum and you got to go. Yeah. We're taking you. We're arresting you. We're deporting you. It's like you have a final order. The legal system has decided like you have no, you have no even more recourse and you need to be arrested, right? We don't know about the details. This is a different person, as you said. But what they say that is extremely problematic for them is fearing for public safety. I have, and I asked a lawyer, there is no statute of deadly force for fearing for public safety.

58:16Or I guess there is, but in a very different circumstance in terms of - It would have to be like, it's a murderer and he has a gun and he's going to commit another crime right now. Not, this is a random guy. we don't even know who it is who we're trying to pull over. So I think they're hit. I think this is like the Alex Preddy case because, and the reason why, again, I talked to somebody who is familiar with the internal process, is when you took 12 hours, that means that the internal FBI review and the turnover to OIG, they made it so that the initial determination is like there's no way that you had a legitimate fear.

58:51And I guess they didn't even try to claim it initially. The second thing, which is very noteworthy, in this entire thing is it took place, as you said, in the, this could not have happened at a worst possible time for Susan Collins, who was, and I'm not, you know, but obviously it's a major political issue. It's Maine and we're in the middle of the whole Plattner situation. This is a disaster for the Republican. Susan Collins was riding high. She has a massive war chest, got like $30 million in the bank. Obviously Republicans love a whole Democrats in disarray situation. A lot of the main Democrats, I mean, we talked to some of the Plattner people, they're all, you know, and they're not furious, but they feel super dejected.

59:31And then this, I mean, could you have asked for a greater gift if you are Troy Jackson, Nirav Shah, or any of these people? Every major candidate. I believe we have their statements, right, don't we, about all of these C7, can we, just to show everybody? We have multiple of these potentials who are running to replace Graham as the Democratic nominee who have all come out with, here's Dan Klebin from Maine Beer Company. ICE has been out of control since Trump took office. We're seeing the devastating, tragic consequences here in Maine. Enough is enough. While we wait to learn what happened in Biddeford, a fatal shooting involving federal agents is horrifying and the last thing any Mainer expects to wake up to.

1:00:10He says, in the Senate, I will vote to hold ICE accountable and finally provide accountability for murdering people. This shit has to stop. Go to the next one. This was Shana Bellows. She says, federal agents were involved in a fatal shooting in Biddeford this morning. Someone is dead. I won't have details, but this is the 11th fatal shooting. It's time to get ICE off of our streets. And then we also have here Troy Jackson, who is the progressive nominee, who straight up says, abolish ICE, solidarity forever. Let's take a listen to that. Hey, everyone. We just got the sad news that it looks like there's been yet another deadly shooting and ICE was involved.

1:00:49This time it was right in our backyard in Biddeford. My heart is with the people of Biddeford, the people of Maine. You know, they need answers. We all need answers, and we deserve to know what happened here. So we're going to go down to be with the community in Biddeford at Mechanics Park at noon. If you're able to, please join us. What we need to know is why this escalated, whether body cameras were worn, whether those body cameras were activated, and what led to a catastrophic outcome in what has otherwise been described as a routine stop. What must not be allowed to happen is that deaths of this nature, which have become all too common in Donald Trump's America, at the hands of federal ICE agents, that those deaths become normalized.

1:01:38That must not be allowed to happen. My question is simple. How many more people must be fatally shot and murdered by ICE agents before we admit that it is time for a change? So that was Nirav Shah, who was a former Biden CDC director. But yeah, this is this is a political disaster, obviously, for the Republicans who are in the state who were riding high. And the fact is, is that ICE immediately, I mean, not acknowledging what exactly what they've done, but not offering any real defense. And that's part of the reason why most of the time in the aftermath of these things, you can see MAGA, people are like, oh, he deserved it, you know, comply or die.

1:02:20I've seen some of that. You're going to see, yeah, but you saw it before the ICE statement. And then when ICE itself comes out and is like, yeah, we didn't fear for our life, you're like, okay. I mean, they're hit. I think that that's it. I mean, there's no, if they can't even claim in the initial justification that they didn't fear and you shot somebody in fear of public safety, good luck in court. I mean, it's going to be a real problem. Yeah, absolutely. And a few other things that are worth noting. I mean, first of all, it's very different than how these ICE killings were handled under Kristi Noem.

1:02:52They, you know, immediately came out. They're domestic terrorists. You know, this is part of some grand Antifa plot. Just inventing details, even knowing that there was video out there that was going to come out that did not comport with what they were claiming. The facts did not matter. They wanted to use this as an attempt to incite and create this portrait of left wing, out of control, etc. Here you have a delay and then an effective acknowledgement. Not that we know that they're being truthful, but this is de facto an acknowledgement that they completely fucked up, that this was wildly unjustified.

1:03:27And so that is very different. The other thing that's worth noting is that, you know, this comes these two shootings back to back now come on the heels of a push to surge the number of arrests to 2000 a day. That's been, you know, this new quota that's been implemented that they've been pushing for. And so I don't think it's any surprise that on the heels of ICE getting a new tranche of funding and then the push for this aggressive arrest quota that you have, you know, horrifying killings such as this. And then the other thing, I mentioned that there were some similarities between these two shootings, one in Houston and now this one in Maine.

1:04:04First of all, both involved motor vehicles. And we've had other incidents as well where ICE has fired or other CBP or other allied agencies have fired in these motor vehicle stops. The second thing that they have in common is in both instances, the men that they shot and killed were not the target of operations. So, again, these were just I see someone, they look to me like they might be undocumented. I'm going to pull them over in this hyper aggressive way, too, which I'll come back to in a moment. And then the third thing, and this is really quite damning, no body cameras in either incident, no body cameras.

1:04:43So the footage we have both from Houston, which has been cobbled together from various like doorbell ring cameras and other security cameras in the area. And then this footage that we have, which again happens, you know, is from an eyewitness that happened after the shooting has already occurred. None of this is coming from official outlets because either they didn't have body cameras at all, which at this point, what are we doing? You have unlimited funding for this agency and you don't even have body cameras. Or there's also some reporting that these guys will intentionally leave the body cameras behind or turn them off because they don't want to face that sort of accountability.

1:05:24They don't want to have that official record of here is how this all went down. We know in a previous case in Chicago in the killing of Marmar that we that we covered, that it was the body camera footage, which really proved that they had completely invented the chain of events that she was thoroughly vindicated. And so they look at that and they go, OK, well, we just won't wear them or we just won't we just won't turn them on. And then we don't have to worry about that level of accountability. I also think to the point about Iran destroying Trump's presidency, the fact is, is that they're responding from a position of total weakness, is that ultimately they previously felt immense popular ground to be able to fight on the issue of immigration, like to compare the difference between then and now.

1:06:07But when you see now, like how muted their response is, the immediate admission of culpability, not culpability, but of promise. Reading between the lines effectively, yeah. Again, it's effectively an admission is we went to go capture somebody else. We went to go arrest somebody else. Another person came out. There's no claim of like that they were ever in fear for their lives. That's usually the statement that you read, the officer fearing for his life. It's like, no, in fear of public safety. That is like, you know, I mean, again, like imagine local PD if somebody put out a statement like that.

1:06:42We all know which way that that would go. This is also coming on the heels. I don't know if you saw this. Renee Good's family has reported that all of the information evidence that was in possession of the feds was actually turned over to Minnesota state authorities as of yesterday. day. Also, I do think it's incredibly noteworthy that in the statement that ICE initially issued that their only mission was a detention of somebody with a final order of removal, which is something that they've been accelerating and been trying to do, which is AKA the right way, right? It's very hard to dispute. Here we have somebody who's going through asylum.

1:07:21People know my feelings about asylum. But my point is, if you have a final order of removal, well, there's really not a lot more to discuss. The judge has ruled like you have no right to be here and got to go. And so then it's very difficult for activists and others to get all upset about it. So I think you see that they were already in kind of they had already gone back on the way that they were using their tactics. Then when the situation goes bad, they take 12 hours to issue a statement. And then you also have it seems that Mark Wayne Mullen, the DHS secretary, was on the phone to Susan Collins and Angus King, admitting a lot of the problems that were there initially.

1:07:59So I do think it's a huge retrenchment from where they previously were on the issue of immigration. And this also, again, it highlights to the extent to which all of this together leads to, I mean, you know, in Maine, obviously, it's a tiny little state. I was just there, literally, you know, Ro Khanna was talking about feeling his race. I'm not saying I was discriminated against. I obviously was not. But you feel it when you're in the garage. When you're walking around a grocery store in Biddeford, You're like, man, are there anybody else? You know, it's like I'm from Texas where 40 percent of people are not white.

1:08:29So it's it's it's a weird situation. So, yeah, to see an eye situation like happen this in Maine, I'm like, oh, man, I can only imagine how this will activate the local population there. Because, I mean, there were not a ton of political signs up in Maine that I tended to notice. But it is a unique place with a real identity of kind of like leave us alone. You know, we live in this gorgeous homeland and all this is like don't come. And Baltimore's going to live New Hampshire, live free or die almost type vibe. So to have something like this, I think it's going to be a huge, huge problem on the heels of platinum dropping.

1:09:04Well, because it also just reminds of why Susan Collins for all of her, you know, her main niceness and the way that she knows so many people in the state personally, which is what has really been her political Teflon, is when it comes down to it, she provides these key votes for Trump on things like ICE funding that the majority of Mainers, which is generally a blue state, the majority of Mainers overwhelmingly oppose. I mean, this is a state that did not vote for Trump and it was not particularly close. So when you have a reminder of, hey, these are the sorts of things this lady, who may seem kind of nice and you may have met her before.

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1:11:29Right, but the timing just can't be ignored. And then that's kind of what I meant is that the problem for the... Because remember six up on the screen while soccer is just so you can see the protests that we're talking about here outside of Collins office. There you go. So this is I think these were actually in Biddeford at her local Senate office. The reason why I'm bringing this up is because the base, the greatest fear of the Trump administration is not losing the House. They know that's going to happen. But if they lose the House and the Senate and they really were riding high this week after Plattner dropped out, is they know not only is impeachment on the table, but that they will never pass a budget, period, whenever it comes to anything, right?

1:12:12Like war, ice, anything that they possibly want to do. So to have an incident like this and so invigorating for the Democrats in Maine at this exact critical moment, it will be used not only to get the nomination, but it will also be boosted for Maine Democratic Party up until November, and we already still have high gas prices. You also mentioned the incident in Houston, where, guess what? We just had Ken Paxton get the nomination, who himself is a divisive, controversial figure, who apparently was in the UK on July 4th. What's up with that? I missed that. Some Texan in London spotted him in the middle of London on July 4th.

1:12:53What's going on here, Ken? So James Tallarico, also, I just saw yesterday, had put out some new border plan. It's very, you know, it's classic. We're going to hire more classic, like, lib immigration stuff. But my point is that sounds okay to a lot of the Democrats currently in Texas in the middle of what just happened in Houston and without, you know, John Corrin and the respectability and all this. This is not a justification. I'm just saying that politically, same in Texas, that's the true nightmare scenario if things were to go that way. I still don't think they will. I don't think he's going to win.

1:13:28But things like this, he has raised tens of millions of dollars. And this also means that the new main candidate, whoever it is, Troy Jackson, who be it, they themselves also will be massively like a massive investment, not just from the Democratic Senatorial Committee, but from grassroots activists and others. So these two things, it's a huge problem because a lot of it had faded up until now. Iran had been the main focus. It's bad. They also, you know, I think you're right about Iran killing his presidency. We've talked about that before, but also post Minneapolis, you know, I mean, that really that really was a turning point significantly.

1:14:05I mean, that's when you saw his numbers, which he kind of held on on immigration. They were like roughly 50 50. It's still his best. Yeah. But now he's underwater and everything, including that, you know, I mean, maybe on if you said just border security, he might still be above water. But on the issue of immigration, that's where you really saw a public change in the way that they were seeing this because it was unfolding before their eyes. in a way that they found to be thoroughly unacceptable. And, you know, this man in Houston, who was killed by ICE, like I said, in a similar situation, you know, I don't think the vast majority of Americans, when they were moving in a more hard-line immigration direction, even then I don't think they thought, like, we should prioritize this guy who's been here for 36 years, who has American citizen kids, who's been, you know, no criminal record, upstanding citizen, etc.

1:14:51But even if it was someone who was a recent arrival and who the public might be more comfortable with deportation, they certainly aren't comfortable with, you know, shooting him dead in his in his vehicle. And, you know, I've just been thinking about, like, if I'm, you know, a normal person driving my car and I have these unmarked cars aggressively, you know, pull up in front of you and chasing you and trying. I don't know that I would be thinking like, oh, it's immigration. I need to pull over. I might be thinking like, you know, this person's trying to rob me. They're trying to crash my car.

1:15:24I don't, you know. And so that's another dynamic here of we shouldn't be surprised when some of the people who are being targeted, who are, again, not like they don't. There's not a war now. They're not a target. They're just random people like going about their lives, that they don't react in the precise ideal manner because the approach to them is so aggressive and out of the norms of what they've ever experienced before. Like, I don't know how I would handle that either. I get it. And I have to be honest. You know, I've had to sit and really think about all this a lot because I believe in very hardline immigration enforcement.

1:15:59I do. And, you know, it drives me crazy when people talk about, oh, 26-year-old Biddeford man. I'm like, no, he's from Columbia. And he was applying for asylum. Like, you're not from Biddeford, actually. You moved there and you're claiming asylum. And by the way, in my opinion, 99.5 % of asylum claims are bullshit. Now, at the same time, and this gets to the ultimate tension, I think, for a lot of my politics is a protection of American liberty, but also order and an orderly society. And I don't I'm part of the reason why I was so upset about the Biden situation was it was disorderly, not just at the border.

1:16:36There is chaos when tens of millions of people are running around your country illegally. It's insanity. And not to even mention the social chaos of like people who don't speak English and all that. And I've gotten into all of this like over and over again. The Federal Reserve report, which recently came out talking about immigration's effect on housing, not the number one issue, but it certainly was in terms of supply and demand. And at the same time, you know, the way these guys act is absolutely insane. And that's part of the problem that we've seen. There are a lot of social ills as well whenever it comes to the way, I mean, in terms of the media coverage and remember even the whole Alex Peretti situation.

1:17:12I said it was a disaster. Not a disaster. It was a completely undustified. They executed him in the street unjustly. He also was like a genuine violent left-wing activist. Like it was on camera of him kicking and destroying property. That part I will never be and find acceptable. So it is an ultimate tension. I do think a lot of people who share my politics and feelings on this situation whenever it comes to Trump, there's just no longer a benefit of the doubt, right? Whenever it comes to ICE and to the administration. Because in the early days, we could say, look, not only we, like literally we voted for this, like the sign said, mass deportation.

1:17:49And we also know that many of these activists and others will lie flagrantly about the way that things go down. They'll never – they'll find a guy who's a murdery rapist and still say, oh, he was an angel or whatever and never should have gone anywhere. But now after Houston and Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Seacott, that was my personal breaking point. You're like, guys, like, you can't take any of this shit to the bank. So then now where do we go from here? I don't know. I mean, my greatest fear is I think we're going to swing completely in the other direction, like literal anarchy. And you're like, OK.

1:18:24I mean, you know, abolish ICE, fine. But, you know, somebody's got to arrest a criminal who's supposed to be here illegally. How's that going to work? Is there going to be a political constituency for that? Are we just going to allow people to cross the border? Are we just going to give everybody citizenship? We're not going to give a shit if anybody speaks English anymore? That seems to be the way that things are trending. And I do think, you know, that's a – look, that's a Democratic Party problem. They've got to figure all of that out. But I don't know. It has really made me reassess, though, because like Flock, for example, I think 15 years ago, I would have supported Flock cameras.

1:18:53I really do. Because, yeah, I mean, even today, I passed two fent heads on the way here. It drives me crazy when I walk my kid around and there's a guy taking a shit in the middle of the street. Literally fills me with rage. I'm like, why do I pay property tax and income tax? And this is the nonsense that I have around here. But I also know with the resumption of this surveillance state and others, it's like, how do we have the balance? where we have a private company and what is it called? ShotSpotter or whatever. Again, 10 years ago, I would have been like, yeah, that's good. But I also know that we're all literally under mass AI surveillance and under oligarchal capitalism where these private companies have, it's not even the state necessarily with any democratic input.

1:19:34I know this is all very long-winded, but this, I mean, I don't know. I mean, this is how we are and I have to talk in the future because we all got to live together. Yeah, I appreciate you taking the time to explain the way your thinking has evolved over the course of the administration. And I don't know if this is the case or this is just me projecting my own cares and concerns about the country onto other people. But you mentioned the way that you're you know, you're thinking on this A.I. driven surveillance is different from how it might have been in a previous time. And I also think that the rise of AI and the clear demonstration of the power of these tech oligarchs, I think it also diminishes the, I guess, animated impact of immigration, the sense that this is like the top issue.

1:20:16Because when you look at these tech oligarchs, they're out there saying like, we literally want to replace all of human labor. That takes some of the sting out of like, Jose is going to take your job in the kitchen. You know, it's like, OK, we could debate that whether that's true or not. But we know for sure these guys are like out and out telling us and they have way more power than Jose in the kitchen does. So I think that that also shifts the landscape. I've also said that I think that the Epstein files and the way that that created sort of a weird class consciousness also changes things. But the AI piece in general, you know, when you have the richest and most powerful people, not just in the country, in the world who are like, our mission in life is to make it so you don't have a job and we're going to buy up all the assets so you have to rent from us and you have no choice, then it's sort of like, okay, well, immigration is no longer my top issue.

1:21:08Dealing with these people seems like the number one priority for now. So I don't know if that changes the landscape or the sense around this either. I don't know. To class consciousness point, I mean, it's going to be hard to have class consciousness if we don't all speak the same language. And I know people get uncomfortable about this, but it's true. Like if you don't speak English in my, I mean, I think you've said before there should be English language requirement for citizenship. Like I, I just see how, I do not see how we can all live together. I wouldn't, don't speak the same language.

1:21:36If it was me designing it, I wouldn't require it, but it would be a compromise I'm willing to make is what I would say. But do you see what I mean? But what I would say, that's the compromise. You're like, man, we can't even talk to each other. No, but here's what I would say. It's like, you know, what we've seen over the past, and I'm not looking to get in yet another immigration fight with you here, because I am just interested in hearing the way your thinking has evolved. But what we've seen over the course of the past number of decades is that actually the assimilation process happens more rapidly than it did in previous generations.

1:22:05You have fewer of these ethnic enclaves where people just live in their own world and they never learn the language, et cetera. Usually, you know, the parents are immigrants. They may not learn the language fully, the kids are American and basically assimilate completely to American culture, for better or worse, by the way, which, you know, sometimes American culture loses something from the original immigrant tradition. Yeah, but if you don't want it, then don't come here. You know, this is who we are. Yeah, again, I don't, it doesn't need to get into a whole debate. The problem I have is that when we have vast enclaves and then no expectation around English, then you end up in Miami.

1:22:41People who are literally born and raised in Miami, they don't speak English. When you land in Miami, And yeah, look, maybe this is just me. I feel like it should drive everybody crazy. And you call an Uber and the guy's like, I've lived here for 40 years and I don't speak a lick of English. You're like, this is insane. I mean, is that going to be all of America now? I don't want it to be that way. I used to, I thought most of us agreed it shouldn't be that way. Like there should be some expectation of citizenship and of common like understanding that usually is how the citizenship process has been for all time.

1:23:10I don't think it's going to be like that in the next administration if it's a democratic administration. I mean, honestly, that scares the shit out of me. But that's the question, ultimately, of in the future, we are going to have to come to some sort of understanding of what public order, citizenship, and immigration itself as an understanding of what it means to be American. That will be the biggest fight ever, I think, actually, in politics. And the fact, and I will always be enraged at the Trump administration for doing this, is for handling, not just on war, because war was the ultimate betrayal, in my opinion.

1:23:45But here in this one particular one, which is under discussed, is just like the George W. Bush administration by invading Iraq and destroying its entire cause. Like there are genuine people out there who have supported the Bush administration and other things that have freely admitted that the war in Iraq killed any of their ability to make a case for many of the other things that W had run on. I feel like that's now the case with immigrants. It's been so disastrous. People are basically going to say, well, we tried it your way, the hardline way, and this is what happened. So we have to go in another direction.

1:24:17And I don't think it needed to be like this at all. In fact, I know it didn't need to be like this. I've spoken with some people in the admin. And by doing this, they have created a situation where I actually think, crazily enough, the worst case scenarios that they would always say that they're like the left is going to do in 2023. 23 i'm like you made that a reality dude like you actually made it so that that is now probably what is going to happen and i don't know if there's coming back from it to be honest after after seeing things like this because i don't blame people who are like hey we voted uh and then we listened to the way you said and people started getting shot and it was it all became totally nuts and you know the current right-wing response to a lot of people who are like myself is you're a pussy uh you know this is what it takes and i'm like well actually i don't really think So there's a lot of different ways that you could have gone about this, which I've outlined here many times here on the show.

1:25:08And they're like, oh, that would have been, you know, oh, that's, you know, cuck behavior or whatever. I'm like, all right, well, congratulations. Also, by handing the reins over to Stephen Miller, really gave a lot of credence to liberal argument that this is like, you know, white nationalists to its core when the only asylum seekers that you're admitting are white South Africans. And even Trump is like Stephen Miller would want the entire country to look like him effectively. But, you know, that look, remember, Stephen is a Jew. So it's like it's complicated whenever it comes to Stephen. I actually think it's a little too reductive.

1:25:38What I would say the bigger problem with the administration on immigration is, is they went for all out enforcement without actually doing without without in the most convenient for that way for them possible. What I mean by that is super easy to go and arrest people. You know what's not easy is to either indict and or audit Marriott Hotels and say, why are you guys employing all of these illegals? All their big donors. Or to build up the government apparatus mechanisms that would be required to, for example, handle asylum in like a reasonable time frame where it's not just, you know, we're going to go.

1:26:13That's part of it. Let's just go round people up at the Lowe's or Home Depot. Or mandatory E-Verify. Guess what? That would destroy multiple Fortune 500 companies. I still support it. I don't care. And you know who would oppose that? Trump. No, I know that. Because you realize on immigrant labor. Yeah. And just to one lingering thought that to go back to your Texas point, you know, there is an assumption, was an assumption in Texas that Republicans would hang on to something approaching the Trump margins with Latinos in Texas. That's what the gerrymander was based on. And there was just this poll of Hispanic business owners in Texas who now favor Tallarico.

1:26:49And part of what they're saying is basically like, yeah, the immigration stuff is a problem for me as as a business owner. But also, you know, in sort of like cultural solidarity. So in any case, you know, very two tragic, unnecessary and criminal killings of immigrants here once again. And and very much potential political backlash, I think, unfolding in states that are crucial for the Republican Senate. It will be a big, big problem. I actually think this could be I I'm not going to call it on Susan Collins because she's always been wily and able to. but I don't see a path. You know, if they nominate somebody.

1:27:29Yeah, I feel the same way. I think things are too partisan now. Kyle and I disagree on this. He's concerned that, you know, with Plattner being pulled and the messiness, et cetera. But I just think she was able to hang on for a long time based on just personally knowing people in the state. I just think partisan, like, hardening has gotten to the point now where that is not going to be sufficient. And almost no matter who they nominate. That works if you're a governor. It doesn't work when you're in the U.S. Senate and you've got to take national votes. That's the problem. It's because everything is national now, this whole, oh, but I got a bridge built in Augusta.

1:28:03People are like, listen, I don't give a shit anymore. And how many more Trump insanities is she going to have to, like, I'm concerned her way through? We're probably going to get another one on Thursday when he does whatever he's going to do with the election shit and new war. I mean, all this stuff. And she's going to have to answer for all of that throughout the campaign. It's going to be very difficult for her to— She supports the war. position. Yeah, I guess that one's not a problem for her.

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