7/22/26: Trump To Bomb Pickaxe Mt, Lebanon Civil War, GOP Screwed In Midterms

22:52had a no-fly zone over Iraq and would just bomb it like once or twice a week and sanctioned it to death. In the 70s and 80s, Iraq was the wealthiest country in the Middle East. It was very powerful. And then in 1991, there was this, what seemed to be a deliberate miscommunication between the U.S. and Iraq in which we greenlit them going into Kuwait. We then launched the first Gulf War. And after that, Israel considered Iraq to be its greatest kind of geostrategic threat in the region. Saddam Hussein was very sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. And so we spent the 90s just bombing the hell out of Iraq and sanctioning them.

23:44And then once it was sufficiently weakened in 2003, we went in and we topple it. And so what he's suggesting there is that that should be the roadmap for Iran, that we just spend 10 years just like bombing it once or twice a week. And then maybe 2035, we can send some troops in there and just push over what's left of it.

24:04Emily Jashinsky:Well, and as always, it's worth popping the general's name. Anytime you see a talking head on Fox News, that's very excited. Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, honestly, that seems to be analyzing a war as a never-ending one that might involve years of conflict. Who's he worked for? Let's hear it. Oh, he's a founder of his own AI company that happens to have contracts with the Pentagon. And it's a data center. It's a micro data center company. It's called Semper. Axios did a whole write-up of his company back in 2021. He's also a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, which, of course, gets a significant amount of money from defense contractors.

24:43Emily Jashinsky:So no surprise to hear Spaulding thinking this just might take a long time. Just pull himself up by his bootstraps. Let's see hard work rewarded. Now, Secretary Hegseth, speaking of money from or for the Department of War, Secretary Hegseth was on Capitol Hill yesterday asking for what was it right? Like 70 billion more dollars. He said the 67 billion, I think he wants. Right. Yeah. And he said the war so far precise amount for a organization that doesn't know how to count its money every year. The price tag for the Iran war, according to testimony from Dan Cain and Pete Hegseth yesterday, is now up to thirty seven and a half billion.

25:21Emily Jashinsky:How do they know that? They can't they don't know how to do an audit. How do they even know they're out of money? Thirty seven and a half. They're like, we're out of money. Like, how do you know you're out of money? Not thirty seven. Look again. There's money somewhere. Check out of the couch. But anyway, he was confronted by Senator John Ossoff. Let's take a look here at A7. You stated on March 8th, day nine of the war on 60 Minutes, you assured the American people of Iranians surrender. Does that remain your prediction? Ultimately, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon to threaten the United States of America.

25:54That has been the objective and it remains so. So just to review, you will not answer whether your statement made on the 14th day of the war that Iran's military had been, quote, destroyed and made combat ineffective was a truthful statement to the American people as you sit here and ask for tens of billions more. The senator's time has a historic and effective military campaign against the largest state sponsor of terror. Won't answer the question. They never get into the weapons center.

26:20Emily Jashinsky:Meanwhile, split screen here on Capitol Hill, Mike Johnson, Speaker Mike Johnson, who's looking at potentially becoming minority leader, Mike Johnson, is a little bit more concerned about the timeline of the war. Let's take a listen. The administration is working very hard. The commander in chief and the whole Department of War, they're working very hard to bring this to a resolution. There's a lot of discussions about how that will be done. We're all closely watching those developments, of course. I don't think an AUMF is in order right now. I think we need to bring this to a resolution. Look, I think it's important for all of our international partners, is my personal view, to have a role in this.

26:59I mean, we've got all of our allied nations through NATO. We've got the Arab countries over there, the Gulf states that are in closest proximity to Iran. Iran is now fired on all of its neighbors, and they're turning everybody in the world into an enemy. And I think this is an important moment of history for all of the world community to decide how they want to handle this. It shouldn't just be America's obligation. My view is that everybody needs to play a role. So we'll see how that develops. I think we have to allow the space to do that. And I know that this administration is working around the clock to resolve that in a way so that we don't suffer any more troop losses.

27:34This is a great tragedy. It shouldn't happen. But it is a very important, very important objective that I believe we've achieved to ensure that the largest sponsor of state of terrorism does not have a nuclear weapon. That would be a disaster for everybody. And everybody around the world understands that. Now we've got to wrap it up.

27:51Emily Jashinsky:Subtle, but you probably caught at the end there, him saying we need to wrap it up. There's no need for an AUMF specific to this Iran war. Better to resolve it. Because we just got to wrap it up, Ryan. And you know what? Maybe I agree with that at this point. If we don't need to have an AMF because you guys would rather just wrap it up, by all means, wrap it up. Also, they've already voted. They passed a War Powers Resolution ending the war. Amazing. But Congress did that. Great work. Yeah. So, yeah, wrap it up. Yeah. Summer is here. At Orderly Meds, we know this time is a reminder that life is full of new beginnings.

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29:00Visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast to learn more. That's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Because every new season is an opportunity to take the next step forward. Compounded medications are not FDA approved. Eligibility required and determined by a licensed provider. Individual results may vary. See website for details. If your best finance people are doing expense reports, chasing receipts, or spending time on month-end clothes? It's time to get Brex AF, a Gentic finance that eliminates that work before it starts. Learn more at brex.com slash AF. My name is Arnold Bogarty, and prior to me enrolling in Rasmussen to become a nurse, I spent 16 years in the military, 12 in Special Forces, as an Army Green Beret, and I was recommended to Rasmussen by a former student.

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30:09Emily Jashinsky:All right. Well, Ryan, let's talk now about Lebanon, also crucial to this entire conversation about the negotiations in Iraq. Trump was saying yesterday that he's it was going back and forth on whether or not he's negotiating with Iran. He would be willing to Senator or Secretary Rubio in the same kind of vein fluctuating on whether or not they're willing to talk publicly, privately, all of that. So let's move over to Lebanon, because Donald Trump was with the president of Lebanon yesterday in the White House. Yeah. And so Trita Parsi had flagged, and you can put this element up on the screen, this Wall Street Journal article that floats the various ways that the U.S.

30:48is exploring the idea of basically sparking a civil war inside of Lebanon. And I wanted to just read a little bit from this Wall Street Journal article because I think just hearing how the mainstream media writes about it, you as a normal person will be able to immediately spot all of the problems with this proposal. Also, the journal writes, Israel has battered the Lebanese militia Hezbollah over two years of fighting. Many Lebanese are turning against the militant group. And there's growing consensus in Beirut that Hezbollah must finally be forced to give up its weapons. But American, Israeli, and Lebanese officials are finding there are no easy options to disarm a U.S.-designated terrorist group that is embedded in society and bound to its cause with religious zeal.

31:36Complicating matters is Israel's invasion of Lebanon and its continuing occupation of swaths of the country's south, creating a point of tension with Beirut just when the two countries' leaders are aligned on disarming Hezbollah. And then they go on to say the dilemma has opened the way for once unthinkable ideas, pushing ahead. U.S., Israeli, and Lebanese officials are pushing ahead with a plan to train and vet elite units of the Lebanese armed forces. The idea here, they will train these Lebanese armed forces and then Israel will then kind of, after training them, turn over the occupation of southern Lebanon to them.

32:14But I just love this delightful line in here. Complicating matters is Israel's invasion of Lebanon.

32:19Emily Jashinsky:Unbelievable. Small matter. A mere complexity. Does make it a little extra. A wrinkle. We'll agree with that. But the piece then goes on to kind of try to disentangle this complexity, which comes primarily from, well, lots of different elements. But the fact that Hezbollah is a key element of the Lebanese military. There are Hezbollah sympathetic and Hezbollah linked people who make up significant swaths of the Lebanese armed forces. And so anytime the Lebanese armed forces try to move against Hezbollah, Hezbollah gets tipped off immediately because they are in there, because they are Lebanese.

33:05Complicating matters.

33:07Emily Jashinsky:Another wrinkle. Yeah. So then they go on to say, well, maybe we can get al-Shara to, you know, like they don't even say they're going to get al-Shara, who's the Syrian president, to go to war against Hezbollah. what the journal is suggesting here is that they'll get al-Shara to cut off the supply lines between Iran and Hezbollah. That would be a plausible thing that you could do and is a reason that Israel wanted to overthrow Assad and replace him with al-Shara. The problem is Israel couldn't help itself. And as soon as al-Shara took over, Israel threw a series of airstrikes obliterated the entire national security infrastructure available to al-shara blew up every truck every tank every plane every everything capable of firing a shell and so now israel saying oh hey can you go ahead and use your state apparatus to intercept the smuggling that is going on between iran and hezbollah and al-shara is like yeah about our state apparatus.

34:24You may recall or may not recall, you destroyed it all. So, sorry, we can't. So then you could build them back up, but that would create state capacity on the part of Syria. Israel has said that their strategic assessment is that state capacity itself is a threat to Israel. They don't care if a country is threatening them. If they have the capacity to threaten them, they consider that a geostrategic vulnerability. So they want to degrade every state near them to the point where they don't even have the capacity to think about challenging Israel. So they want Syria to have the state capacity to intercept smuggling routes.

35:14but they don't want Syria to have any state capacity because then that could be used to challenge Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights and increasing occupation further north towards Damascus. So the entire idea here is completely convoluted unless all they want is just a giant civil war to go on for decades. Then maybe they could get that if you send enough enough weapons and train enough, quote, unquote, Lebanese special forces or elite units.

35:47Emily Jashinsky:It put the Lebanese president in a rather interesting position yesterday as he was meeting President Trump at the White House. Let's take a listen to a flavor of their conversation in front of reporters. B2. Mr. President, it's an honor having you. Thank you very much. No, thank you. Thank you. I've been looking forward to this visit for a long time. Thank you. Meeting such a great president like yourself. That's a very nice state. See, he knows how to get to me. He can have anything. Now he can have anything. Would you like to say something? Well, the meeting finished and then Donald Trump posted on True Social that after it, he says, I am hereby directing my administration to allow all U.S.

36:25Emily Jashinsky:airline carriers to fly directly to Lebanon so that Americans can easily visit this beautiful land. Hopefully other countries will do the same. Enjoy President Donald J. Trump. Now, Ryan, I'd love to go to Lebanon. I'm not sure now's the time. A little weekend. Especially in the context you just laid out about the ambitions for potentially a civil war. We got friends there. We'll make sure you're taken care of there. It'll be fine. At first, I read that as all airlines will go directly to Lebanon. Every single one. You're not going to Detroit anymore. No. Everyone's going to Lebanon. There haven't been direct flights from the U.S.

37:02to Beirut since, I think, 1985, when there was a Hezbollah-linked, I think it was Hezbollah-linked, I don't know enough about it to confirm that, but hijacking, I think a plane that was flying from like Rome to Athens or something got hijacked and flown to Beirut, and Reagan was like, okay, Reagan had already taken all the Marines out, and I was like, okay, no more flights either. But yeah, so Trump and Awun are clearly making, forming a bond, what that's going to...

37:36Emily Jashinsky:What that does politically to Lebanon is an interesting question. Yeah. Like to the competing factions for power in Lebanon. Yeah. Meanwhile, the agreement that Trump has with the Houthis interestingly remains in place. The Houthis over the last couple of days announced, we'll announce that they actually would start with this. You put up B6. they announced that any ships docking in Saudi ports or any Saudi-flagged ships are now banned from going through the Bab al-Mendeb Strait, which is the way that oil has been basically flowing. It would go across a pipeline to a Saudi port and then through the Red Sea south over to Asia.

38:21What it has to do now is go up through the Mediterranean if it gets struck at all. If you want to have some fun, you can pause that video and read the actual Houthi statements. They're all so over the top and kind of crazy. Sounds right. The AB5, some Saudi tankers, you can put this up, have already made U-turns immediately after this warning because they have seen that the Yemen forces there have the ability to carry those strikes out. But interestingly, the U.S. and Yemen still have a ceasefire in place because it's a bilateral ceasefire. It doesn't involve anybody else. It's just between us and them.

39:07And Trump observed that, that it's still in place and but threatened that if it if it falls apart, he'll, quote unquote, take care of it. Let's listen to Trump in the Oval Office. This is before. What's your level of concern of a blockade of the Red Sea by the Houthi rebels opening up another front in the war? What happens so far? It hasn't happened. It might happen. But we take care of things. If something like that happens, we take care of it. You know, we've done that with the Houthis before and we haven't heard from them in a while since we did what we did originally. That was about 45 days of very powerful action we took against the Houthis.

39:48and we've had no problem with the Houthis. They've had no problem with us for a long period of time, including during this conflict. I think that if there is something like that, we'll just have to take care of business. Also, that Oval Office, by the way, I just can't get over it.

40:05Emily Jashinsky:I know. It's really, it's something. Have you seen the outside of the White House? No. Oh. Thai restaurant chic, just cursive. It's like a resort. It's like a golf resort. It's like one of his golf resorts. I don't know why we're on this tangent right now, but it's truly like the Oval Office in gold cursive outside. So, you know, when you're on a big resort campus, you have entered the rec room. You have entered the restaurant. That's what it looks like. It's egregious. And then if you want a little laugh, you just turn over and you see on the wall the auto pen under Joe Biden's name. The actual auto pen?

40:45Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, no, he is a picture of the auto pen instead of Joe Biden's portrait. It's all the other presidential portraits. And for Joe Biden, it's a picture of an auto pen. It's actually real. It is actually real. Can confirm, have seen it with my own eyes. Amazing. Yeah, it's something. But truly the region in chaos right now. But don't you worry, Donald Trump is at the helm. Yeah. And so this is, yeah, if Saudi Arabia is crimped from exporting, it's several million barrels per day through the Red Sea. The ability of the U.S., like we're still drawing down our strategic petroleum reserve. Like, yep.

41:24The latest we heard from our government experts like, you know what? Maybe we can go a little bit lower on the petroleum reserve than we thought we could before. And as somebody pointed out on Twitter, the U.S. is just basically driving with the light on at this point. The gas light is on, and we're like, this is fine. Next exit, 22 miles, we can make this.

41:48Emily Jashinsky:We do that with basically all of our policy right now. There's the gas. There's the debt. We can keep making it. Future's down, to your point, basically across the board, except for oil this morning as we record. And that probably explains what we're about to discuss in terms of the midterm election polling. Summer is here. At Orderly Meds, we know this time is a reminder that life is full of new beginnings. Whether you're celebrating the nice weather, starting a new chapter, planning a vacation, or simply looking ahead to what's next, this season can be the perfect time to invest in yourself and your health.

42:23If you've struggled with weight loss and are curious about GLP-1 medications, Orderly Meds can help you learn about your options. Through a simple virtual process, you can connect with licensed medical professionals who can determine whether treatment may be appropriate for you. Getting started is fast, convenient, and happens online from the comfort of home. This summer, consider a new approach to feeling your best. Visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast to learn more. That's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Because every new season is an opportunity to take the next step forward.

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44:08Emily Jashinsky:Well, amidst this conversation at the White House with the head of Lebanon yesterday, Donald Trump got a question about the midterms. Here's what he said. Do you believe that Iran is trying to impact the midterm elections by threatening the street of hormones. They won't have any impact on me. I'm just going to do the right thing. I don't view it as, gee, we're having an election in a period of time. You know, everyone says, oh, I'm doing something before. Now, the election, I can't think about that having to do with this. I think people are very impressed. I mean, we took over Venezuela. We now have a great relationship with Venezuela.

44:45We went to war with Venezuela, and the war ended in one day.

44:49Emily Jashinsky:What he said there was it won't affect me, which is exactly what is getting so deep under the skin of Republican operatives around the country and certainly here in Washington, D.C. Yesterday, Fox News rolled out updated power rankings for the House and the Senate that spelled disaster for Republicans. Let's go ahead and roll first here the Senate power rankings. Take a listen to Bill Malurgeon. Beginning with the Senate forecast, Fox News is projecting that control of the Senate is essentially just a toss-up right now, with the balance of power likely coming down to Senate seats in four states that are all considered coin flips right now.

45:30Those four states are colored in yellow. Fox News projects that Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine all have Senate races that are all toss-ups. And these are the matchups that will likely end up determining control of the Senate. Now, Republicans are eyeing a handful of potential Senate pickups in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan, all of which Fox News power rankings project as a leaning Democrat, while Democrats think they can flip Texas, which obviously leans Republican.

45:58Emily Jashinsky:So a couple of takeaways here, not at all surprising if you've been following the developments, but they have Michigan leaning Dem, they have North Carolina leaning Dem. I think that's abundantly clear from the polling that North Carolina, as of right now, at least unless there's some black swan event will likely be on election day, leaning Dem. Ohio listed as a toss up. Alaska listed as a toss up. Ohio, particularly interesting, very big struggle for Republicans. They didn't expect to have such a significant struggle in Ohio at this point. But that's exactly what happens. And Sherrod Brown coming back.

46:31Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, absolutely. It's exactly what happens when you get into an unpopular war. Sherrod Brown is up in the real clear politics average by 0.6 at this point. Polling's been kind of clustered together in either direction, but that's just a disaster for Republicans at this point. And I noticed, and you probably did too, since you guys watch this show, that they didn't put Nebraska on that list. Yeah. If you look closely at it, they have it as a likely, so pretty dark red Republican. I would rate Nebraska as, now it's not a Democrat, it's an independent who's running Dan Osborne. I'd rate Nebraska as more likely to flip than Texas.

47:05Emily Jashinsky:I agree with that. he's running at about 30 percent according to real clear politics right now but uh that can 30 percent likelihood you mean 30 percent in the let's see what we have here looks like this is actually polymarket so he's real good politics integrates polymarket now yeah so they have him at a 30 percent odd in in polymarket 30 that's higher than i would give talarico agree completely what do they give talarico that's a good question not that we should be promoting this yeah i know I thought it was going to be the poll and I pulled it up and it was Polymarket. It looks like Tallarico is at 44.

47:40Emily Jashinsky:Time to get in on this one. But yeah, so maybe a real clear politics is selling out to the Polymarket. I'm sure they're not doing that for free. That's annoying. But in any event, if this war continues, I think that it gives Tallarico a better chance, but also gives Dan Osborne in Nebraska a better chance. because this state is just getting wrecked. Turek could plausibly win. He's up in the latest Fox News poll. They had him plus four. Iowa has been hit harder by Trump than basically any other state. The tariffs, the cattle stuff, the soybean stuff, he's just killing them all over the place. Which in the first term, you would see a lot of...

48:31Emily Jashinsky:You'd see a lot of patience or you'd hear a lot of patients, particularly from Trump-friendly farmers in Trump's first administration, because they understood there needed to be, I think everybody understands, there needs to be some type of rejiggering. But no question that in the second administration, as Trump has been much more ad hoc, that patience has likely worn thinner in many communities around Iowa. So on the House side... Of course, it's Maine. Yeah. And Maine could... I mean, what do you think of Maine right now? Because Troy Jackson was up in a recent poll over Susan Collins. Yeah, Troy Jackson doesn't have the same riz, obviously, as Plattner.

49:09Emily Jashinsky:To say the least. For better or worse. But he's a very credible, progressive, populist, working-class guy with a lot of people in Maine don't know who he is. But that's... And so that'll give... That could be a good thing for Democrats. Could go both ways. Susan Collins is going to spend, you know,$100 million defining him as God only knows what, who knows what they'll try to unearth about him. But he's a very, very serious candidate, and I think he's probably more likely to win than not. And it doesn't help Susan Collins for Trump to continue this war for another, you know, deep into the fall.

49:55Emily Jashinsky:This is a brutal one ahead. Let's take a look at the House now. This is Fox News' House power rankings now projecting that Democrats will take the House. And by the way, before we leave the Senate, it just occurs to me, about a year ago here in Washington, talk in GOP circles was basically, we got the Senate. Don't worry about this. The House, we might lose a little bit in the House. We might have a slim minority. There might be a little bit of a margin, a small margin between us and Democrats. We might go back into the minority, but the Senate will almost certainly be OK. That's what you were getting from the kind of sages of Republican politics here in Washington a year ago.

50:33Emily Jashinsky:Now, not only is that a toss up, but of course, the House is looking worse and worse for Republicans. Let's roll new Fox News polling again or new Fox News projections C3. As for the House, Fox News projects that Democrats have the lead to flip control of the House back to blue, and they're in better shape than Republicans there right now. There are six 16 House seats projected as toss-ups that will end up deciding control, though Republican redistricting wins could end up blunting some of the losses that the GOP was potentially facing. The Fox News power rankings also show, as of right now, voters prefer Democrats on the generic ballot against Republicans by about 4 percent.

51:13That's a flip from 2024 when Republicans led that by 1 percent. So you're looking at about a five point swing towards Democrats since the 2024 race.

51:23Emily Jashinsky:Now, that's interesting, Ryan, because actually Democrats probably should have an even bigger lead in these House races. And Harry Anton on CNN recently was showing differences in how Democrats are running now in the generic congressional ballot versus 2006 and 2018, both blue wave 2018, basically blue tsunami years. and they actually don't have as big of a lead in the generic congressional ballot right now as they did at the same points in time, 2006 and 2018. So those numbers, I mean, 16 toss-up races, Dems right now with I think it was a three margin, plus three margin in the Fox News power rankings.

51:58Emily Jashinsky:If they pick up all 16 toss-ups, all 10 toss-ups, that's getting in the healthier direction, but it's still going to be a pretty slim majority for them. It's either way we're looking at probably more deadlock. Yeah. My my sense, I guess, and this is not a novel thought, is that just the increasing polarization of the country as as more people just identify as either a Democrat or a Republican or they call themselves an independent, but they always vote Democrat or Republican. And as that phenomenon continues to kind of calcify or coagulate, you're just going to have there's less room for a wave.

52:39Like it's a wave. Instead of washing up on sand, it's washing up on granite.

52:44Emily Jashinsky:To your point, in January, Gallup found a record number of people in the United States identifying as political of political independence. That's up to 45 percent. And it's been a very steep increase. They say that, but they're less independent in their behavior. They're people who are ideological, but not necessarily partisan. They just tend to swing one direction or the other. But that's towards populist candidates in a lot of cases. I think that's probably where you see the increase growing up, especially with Trump and Bernie Sanders, that somebody who's a Sanders or Trump voter might think of themselves as independent, but find themselves reliably voting in one direction over the other.

53:21Yeah, yeah, exactly. And so no matter what happens, you're going to have just less of a movement. Plus, with the redistricting, you really take off the board a lot of races that might otherwise be in play.

53:35Emily Jashinsky:With the redistricting, Republicans have had so much swagger in the last couple of months about how they're going to be just fine in the House of Representatives. And again, here you have Fox News projections putting them. Like they think they might hold it at this point. That's what they're pretty confident. They had a newfound pep in their step after the redistricting on the Supreme Court decision. But it's... I mean, the Democrats have no money. Yeah, they're being outspent for sure. There was just a report in Playbook this morning about Democrats frustrated over their spending disadvantage.

54:06Emily Jashinsky:Trump... Like, the entire D-triple-C has, like, you know,$5. And Haley Stevens has, like,$70 million being spent for her. And she's going to probably lose. She is the D-trip. Yeah, like, yes. Trump ran the table in Arizona last night. He got Andy Biggs. His endorsement also got Karen Taylor Robson. And it's looking like some interesting races for the fall down there. What else happened in Arizona last night? Any interesting DSA stuff? Populist stuff? stuff yes uh the first first district um what's his name uh amishah um was uh had like two or three million dollars spent against him basically by apac um front groups and the d triple c supported his opponent and so it's kind of like an apac d triple c alliance and and sha won and so he'll go to the general.

55:04Then you had in the fourth district, Kai Newkirk, who we had on the program, spent almost no money and ran against Greg Stanton, a top kind of pro-business new Democrat, and ended up with, I think, 30 plus, 35 percent or so. So not terribly close, but he got a much bigger chunk than an incumbent would like to see from somebody who spent like 100 grand or something wow yeah and nobody voted like the the like if you look at the actual turnout um yeah here look so in the first district um you've got um amishah won 40 of the vote with 26 000 votes and beat the dccc uh candidates so like total of 60 000 um people voting it's arizona doesn't have the most robust kind of democratic primary participation, we could say.

56:05Emily Jashinsky:Yes. All right. And finally, I just wanted to note, since we mentioned those Gallup numbers, record high. 50 ,000 voted in the fourth district. Jeez. Wow. That record high of people identifying as independents, just an interesting note on that. If you go back and you look at Gallup's data, that starts to spike at a very particular time, and it's 2008. So it tells you about the direction our politics have gone since.

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