7/29/25: Bill Maher Says He Was Wrong On Trump Tariffs, Krystal and Saagar Grill Senator Slotkin

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2:09Let's get to tariffs now. There has been a major announcement from Donald Trump while he was abroad about the European Union and a trade deal that's been reached been reached between these two blocks. Here's what he had to say. We are agreeing that the tariff straight across for automobiles and everything else will be a straight across tariff of 15 percent. We are known as a tough negotiator and dealmaker. And what is in front of us? That's most important. If we're successful, I think it would be the biggest deal each of us has ever struck. So I'm very much sure people— Ever struck by anybody.

2:53That's true. So that is the circumstances there. He was pictured with the EU president, von der Leyen. It is kind of an insane deal, and I'll try and get into the broad strokes of it. So first of all, people need to understand, he is meeting there with the European Union. Now, the European Union has the ability to negotiate trade agreements and blocs but doesn't have the full authority to actually command its countries to do that. This sounds pretty important. By the way, this is why the entire European Union is a stupid idea. But that's a secondary question. You have France and Germany who have criticized the two major economic powers within the EU who are critical of the deal, the deal that has been signed now by the European Union.

3:33Now, the European Union is saying we are pledging – the crux of the deal is basically to set a base tariff rate of 15 percent. Let me just set that up at the top. There's going to be a 15 percent tariffs on goods. By the way, it actually includes pharmaceuticals, which was previously exempt from a lot of – it's essentially a flat tariff across the board on all of that. in exchange for lowering the tariff rate, and including there's some other stuff that's in the deal, the EU, and this is the one touted most by Trump, is going to spend some 600 billion US dollars by purchasing US natural gas supplies and others.

4:08That's part, the key deal that's being sold to Americans. Now, I want people to understand that there is zero enforcement on that, zero. So let me go ahead and put D4 up here on the screen. And I've heard a lot of pushback from MAGA folks lately. Oh, you're such a hater. Listen, I'm a hater because I'm pro-protectionism. I'm pro-protecting American business, investment, and all of that. I am not pro-fake promises from people that have no authority to actually make them. So here, the European Union admits it cannot guarantee their$600 billion promise to Donald Trump. Quote, the extra investments pledged under the trade deal would have to come from private companies, which Brussels concedes it has no power to control.

4:52Let me reiterate that. Brussels says it has no power to actually invest the touted$600 billion of European Union money into the Wall Street Journal, sorry, into the US over the coming years. And in fact, quote, the money would have to come exclusively from private European companies with public investment contributing nothing, which means that these private companies would have to make the decision. Now, can the government lean on the private company? I guess. But if they're going to lean on the company, then maybe we would have to offer them something in return. This is the problem, right? And then secondary to all of this is this pledge around gas and actually buying a lot of US natural gas supplies.

5:35Well, everything I've read now so far, there is this zero expectation that all of that money will eventually end up in the hands of US gas suppliers. Why? We don't have the supply. We don't barely have the supply currently. It also depends on the supply infrastructure here in America, which, by the way, we don't have very much of, at least for right now. And it would basically require the EU to increase even more than it currently is, which is causing consternation in their domestic markets, their reliance on American energy. So those are like the two cruxes, right? The$600 billion of investment and buying natural gas in exchange for the so-called 15 % flat tariff.

6:14That's the deal. I mean, look, it's better than, what, 50%, 60 % or whatever people can say. You know, previously, yeah, fine. But, you know, in terms of— That Trump had also put in place. That Trump had put in— Yeah. So that's why I'm going crazy at all these people who are like, hey, guys, like, you know, we need to admit here that the truth is that Trump succeeded. It's like, hold on a second, all right? He put in maximal tariffs. Went for maximal tariffs for what? How long was it? Two weeks? something like that, from Liberation Day onward. The markets crash. After the market and the bond market react, they pull back and say, actually, there's a pause on everything, and there's all these little mini tariffs everywhere, and we're going to do all of these side deals.

6:57All of the side deals then get postponed for some 90 to 180 days as they continue to go on with China. And now, within that context, after you've moved, and elsewhere, there's already been some market correction or reality of accepting some of these tariffs, then you declare victory after you're the ones who back down from your original position. So that is a good lead-in to the Bill Maher. And that's why I want people to understand this stuff. I'm not a hater. I want more. I want better trading relationship. I don't see a lot of this stuff in the European Union, other than a tariff for the sake of tariff.

7:29I don't really see how this is going to increase overall US investment and manufacturing. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I just don't personally see it. All I see is the S &P 500 to go up because the reason it's going up is because people in big business knows that it's actually not going to affect them all that much. So that's the context through which Bill Maher now says, quote, I got to own it and gives Trump saying that the tariffs didn't sink the economy. Let's take a listen. The truth is, I don't know what his strategy is. But look, the stock market is at record highs. I know not everybody lives by the stock market, But I also drive around.

8:03I don't see a country in a depression at all. I see people out there just living their lives. And I would have thought, and I got to own it, that these tariffs were going to fucking sink this economy by this time. And they didn't. The reason why is because those maximal tariffs on China, which actually would have sunk the economy, are not currently in place. OK, and let's get into that little China tariff deal, shall we? Let's put D5 here up on the screen just so people know, because the number one reason that we're supposed to be concerned about trade with China and all that is our own personal domestic market.

8:41And right now, Trump has actually frozen export controls to secure the trade deal with China. Now, I would say AI, this is what they always say, the most important future part of our business, which runs on these NVIDIA H20 chips, which previously the Trump administration was going to freeze for export to China. The Trump, as part of the current negotiations with China, has actually blocked that export control, allowing NVIDIA to continue exporting those chips to China. basically because, and you'll all recall this, Jensen Wang paid$5 million to have dinner with Trump down in Mar-a-Lago. That's how this all happened.

9:21Now, whether you support this or not, that's not really how we should be making national security policy, is it? Can we all agree with that? And people I know who are real China protectionists are freaking out about this, including Steve Bannon, who is quoted here in this article. But it's basically giving away the store on AI before there's even some sort of negotiation. By the way, let me also note this. The Trump administration today did something which they would have beat the hell out of Biden for doing. They blocked the Taiwanese president from transiting through New York to Central America on a trip.

9:54He was also supposed to participate in an event in Dallas. This is a top 10 trading partner of the United States. But because the Chinese are upset every time this dude even transits through America, they blocked him in the midst of their trade negotiations. negotiation. You can be fine with that if you want. I would call that capitulation whenever we're talking about a major trading partner. That's the reality of the trade deals that we all have right now. Japan's going to buy more rice. Congrats to them, our shitty rice. Japan is not going to open its market to US cars. Nobody there wants them, guarantee you that.

10:29The European Union, fine. They're paying 15 % tariff and they made all these fake ass promises to buy natural gas and to invest money. It's all bullshit, just from what I'm looking at right now. I guess we should say, fine, let's not tell them that it is, because then we can all just move on. Maybe it's better than the alternative. It's better than what was promised. I mean, that's the thing. Like, Bill Maher, not known for his economic attention to detail. We'll all recall the moment I had with him, where he had no idea that the stock market had crashed during COVID, and then there were all sorts of extraordinary efforts to make sure that that didn't happen and began and the bond market seized ever.

11:00whatever. So he's not known for really following the ins and outs of these things, let's just say. But, you know, I also I'm so frustrated with the press just takes it face value. Like Trump will say, oh, we got this deal and here's what it is, blah, blah, blah. And they just like write that up. And we've had multiple times now where after the fact you learn like, oh, by the way, that, you know,$600 billion or whatever, we actually aren't really in a position to compel that or promised that with the Japanese deal after Trump made his big announcement. Then the Japanese came and said, that's not actually what we really agreed to.

11:33So I don't know when they're going to learn the lesson of way to beat, look into the details, find out what's real and what's not before you give him his like glowing report of, oh, President Trump wins again. I was on with Piers Morgan yesterday and it was, Crystal, why can't you give, why can't the Democrats give the Trump credit. It's like, because there's nothing here to give credit for. The difference between also what was sold, the 90 deals in 90 days and how everyone's going to come begging and it's going to be this incredible renaissance and whatever, and the reality of these sort of half-assed fake deals, which by the way, the part of it that actually has teeth, the 15 % tariff, on pharmaceuticals, they're very likely to further drive up costs for medicine here in the US.

12:17and what we've said from the beginning is there's no industrial policy on the other side to actually help create. Okay, you want, yes, I agree pharmaceuticals should be manufactured here. You don't achieve that just by slapping a tariff on. You need to have concerted industrial policy of which there is none. So that's where we are. But I do think there will be a perception of like, oh, the sky didn't fall and you guys said it was. Yeah. I think there will be a little bit of that. But on the other hand, when you look at the polling, it's not like people are satisfied with the economy. You've got them doing the same thing that we heard Democrats doing last.

12:49Although the stock market's doing well, so everybody must be doing well. No, most people don't feel like that. I'll just end that. How did that work out for the Biden people? The S &P had, what, two record years under Joe Biden, one down year. Does that mean that the economy was better in 2024 because of the S &P 500? Obviously not, all right? And that was acknowledged. So anyway, it's a stupid way to track things, but nobody particularly cares about the details For those of us who do, you can have it. All right. Now we've got Senator Alyssa Slotkin standing by. Let's get to it. When I was 14 years old, I was kidnapped and held captive for nine months.

13:26I survived, and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart, and these are the Survivor Files. I just remember this low, taunting voice next to my ear saying, shut up, don't say anything. Every week, I'm with survivors who live through the unthinkable. I knew if he woke up, without a doubt, he was going to hurt me. I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed, and I just started screaming. They are abducted, stalked, controlled, and nearly silenced. But these aren't stories about what's taken from them. They're stories about what it takes to make it out alive.

14:12Listen to The Survivor Files with Elizabeth Smart on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. If your bookshelf and your For You page are equally important to your personality, welcome home. This is Prose Society, the weekly podcast that's part book club, part group chat for thought daughters, pop culture obsessives, and anyone who thinks Pride and Prejudice and Love Island deserve the same level of discourse. I'm Eli Rallo, and every week we're connecting the dots between books, the internet, and the conversations everyone can't stop having. I'm going to have to look up this story.

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15:27Our show is extremely accessible to first-time listeners. Each week, we talk to someone in show business, a.k.a. The Biz, and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us. Everyone has a good time, and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show. We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this? How about we flip it on his head? How about we flip the script? What if the surprise woman, who actually you think is the straight man, is actually the one who's acting weird? Adam Scott. this entire time you've been expecting adam sandler to come to visit the show i i would never let go of that i have i would never set expectations for something like that seems like if the universe allows for something like that to happen i'm open to it i'm always going to accept you know danny mcbride fine yeah it's all this fragile masculinity exuding i could smell it walking down the hallway to be honest with you i was like is that weed nope it's fragile masculinity ben stiller no because a lot of times in out of context people don't get it or even know what a circle is you know what i mean like they're like oh what's the state everyone's so dumb except for you right fake and and also not interested or just like oh i've got my life i don't care about your life and a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us oh and And by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on every episode, but he's just so busy.

17:04Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Joining us now is Senator Alyssa Slotkin of Michigan Center. Thank you very much for joining us. Thanks for having me. We have a very limited amount of time. This is the Internet, so you're here. And it's important that we ask some of the questions that are animating some of the younger voters and others. I assume that's part of the reason that you're here. The first is about Jeffrey Epstein. It's a story that's really captured a lot of America's interests. So you're a former CIA officer. Do you think that Jeffrey Epstein had any connections to U.S.

17:35or Israeli intelligence agencies? So not that I've ever seen or heard. Have you asked? No, I haven't asked. But, you know, this is like a solvable question because President Trump's CIA director, John Radcliffe, can answer this question, right? There is no shortage of people in this administration who can answer that question. I would be very surprised. I'm going to be honest. I know your views on it. I would be surprised. But I'm like a Middle East analyst. I was doing my time going after terrorist groups and militias in Iraq. And so I just I never saw it. I never heard anything about that. I, again, would be surprised.

18:12But there's an easy way to solve that problem. Well, that's the question then. So in terms of, because I know you've expressed some concern about classified information, et cetera, in the past, would you be fine then with the full release of these Trump Epstein files, even if they did reveal an intelligence connection? Yeah. I mean, I think at this point, like it's just, it's such a distraction from, in my mind, like what I really care about, which is helping people like live well in Michigan. Just get it over with and get it out. And this wasn't like my issue. It's still not the thing that wakes me up in the morning and I want to work on.

18:48But I think it's okay to say it's a full distraction now in Washington. Everyone's talking about it. So just unveil it, do whatever you need to do, answer the questions and move past it. Well, that's the last question then. So there's some accusations here from the Republicans on Epstein here, just about, you know, why didn't you care for four years? I know you asked the question in 2020, you said, I don't care particularly about Bill Clinton, et cetera. I mean, that's somewhat understandable, but, you know, we do have like a person versus circumstances, let alone, you know, the sex trafficking organization, others.

19:17So, you know, why don't you answer that question? Like, why is this now is the time that you do care. I mean, it's horrible when you have a pedophile and someone who had a literal pyramid scheme of recruiting 14 and 15 year old girls for illegal sex. I mean, it's horrible. At the time, I mean, I sort of saw it as like one of these horrible stories that comes out every five months, you know, about somebody. I think the Weinstein thing had happened. There weren't Michiganders to my knowledge who were involved, you know, women, young girls who were involved. So I kind of saw it as like a horrible moment, but not particularly something that's like going to decide whether someone in my state can buy a house or get a good job.

19:58So to me, it was just like a, it wasn't like a strategic issue, right, for me. And then now it just is like grown. And I think there is a difference between saying some rich guy or a former politician was named in those things versus the president of the United States. That to me is apples to oranges because one of them is leading the free world and one of them's not. So if his name is in there as it appears it is, just like deal with it and let's get on with it at this point. And, you know, my 10-year-old nephew understands that the president is trying to dodge, trying to distract, trying to talk about other things.

20:40He hates answering this question. like we get it. So it feels off to the average person, right? To a 10-year-old, they're like, did he do something, right? So just get through it, get it out, and let's move on to real, sorry, for me, like real economic issues. So then if piece of legislation comes forward, you would vote for it to support the release of the files. Okay. All right. So then let's talk about future of the Democratic Party and that's something you've been interested in. Democratic approval hit an all-time low from the Wall Street Journal. At the same time, we've seen the rise more recently from anti-establishment candidates, people like Zoran Mamdani.

21:15Give us some of your thoughts there about the future of the Democratic Party and particularly in the context of Mamdani's victory in New York City. Yeah. Well, I guess as a good Midwesterner and Michigander, I'm never going to say that what happens in New York City represents all of America. Sorry, we're a big country. And I would never pretend to totally understand New York City politics. I didn't particularly understand Eric Adams. I didn't particularly understand, like I genuinely, Right. But the I think the message and the hot take out of that election is actually not terribly dissimilar from what we heard in the November election when Trump won.

21:48Right. Which is people are still focused on the cost of living and not being able to achieve what they thought they could achieve. Right. And then number two, people are looking for a new generation of leadership. I don't think it's hard to miss those hot takes. I can have plenty of disagreements with what I've heard Mr. Mamdani propose, and I do. But that message coming out of that election— What do you disagree with? Just, I'm like, my family was a fourth-generation hot dog business. Like, I am here because we live the American dream through capitalism. Okay. And so, like, a lot of free stuff, to me, is not the answer.

22:26I don't think it's sustainable. I don't think that it actually fixes the underlying problem. But I can have those disagreements. I think this is the—like, I would be thrilled to have that conversation with him or anyone else about, like, hey, let's—we agree that there's an economic problem here. What we do to solve it, let's have that debate. And adults can debate and not, like, want to kill each other's children. Well, let's talk then about leadership. So you just talked about that. We see a lot of that from our show, some of the Democratic side of our audience, furious with Democratic leadership.

22:58I mean, do you still support Chuck Schumer's leadership? He hasn't given an interview in about a month. I didn't know that. I mean, for me, I mean, I've now served in the Senate for six months in the House before that. Him, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have hard jobs, like herding cats. It's not fun. I've said for a very long time, long before I got into the Senate and long before President Biden dropped out, that we need a new generation of leadership. You can feel it in. And I think at this point, I mean, especially New York, right, you're looking at New York. It's like I'd rather roll the dice with someone new than have like the warmed over leftovers that I've already known.

23:37So I think we have a problem with that across the board. And I think one of the things I can do as the youngest Democratic woman in the Senate, and, you know, I'm not young. I'm just young for the Senate, to be clear. You're young for us. Yeah, I mean, is push on that and try to give younger leaders a voice in this party in a very real way. And to me, that's upward pressure. That pressure that you're talking about from the people is good. So then shouldn't they endorse him? I mean, what kind of a message Schumer and Jeffries, shouldn't they endorse? They're both from New York. Mom Donnie. They're both New Yorkers.

24:16Yeah. And what kind of a message does it send if, like, I mean, this guy won the Democratic primary. Yeah. He is the Democratic nominee. It was overwhelming if then the centrist leadership of the parties, we can't get behind them. Yeah. I mean, you just asked me before we started the exact same question about the Michigan Senate primary. And I'm like, Michigan Democrats don't get involved in primaries. We all are friends. So I can't speak to what they're doing. I think, I hope that they're meeting. I mean, if this person is - They did. And Hakeem Jeffries still refused to endorse him. I mean, think about it from this context.

24:50Like, let's say in 2028, a more moderate figure wins the Democratic primary. And a bunch of progressives, AOC or whoever says, we're not backing. We don't agree with you. I feel like you would have a problem with that. Yeah, I mean, I think I will say this. the way that this party works is when there's a coalition that sticks together. That's like a numbers issue. That's a data issue. And so I'm always going to be someone who's trying to find unity. That doesn't mean we all agree with each other. And I think I wasn't in the conversations where they met privately. What they debated, what they talked about, I don't know.