7/3/25: Trump Says Don't Cut Medicaid, Scahill Reveals Hamas Strategy, Dems Turn On Israel

24:05I assume it will get fixed when that happens. So it's like that. So that I understand. It's like basically we trust Trump that he's that he's going to do do good by us. I guess last point on the deficit, like, you know, that my whole life being told that it's the thing that's going to like ruin America. and it's like oh how about how about we add a couple more uh trillion to it and yeah yeah one minute on on that one because i know you got to run the deficit is to republicans as global warming is to democrats the impending crisis that you know always always will happen in the next year or two and then never does i mean i think that i've come to the conclusion that i mean the debt as a problem is is not a problem in the way that you know the sort of freedom caucus people catastrophize it.

24:50It's just a long-term net inflation problem is the way I think about it. That's basically how some on the left think about it too now. Yeah. And ultimately, was Trump getting people to chant, reduce the deficit? No. I mean, one of the things that the Freedom Caucus loves to do, and this is not limited to them, is pretending that their policy is the ultimate Trump agenda. And it's like, no, actually, that's not what the Trump vote base wanted. The deficit is like 10th on the list or 15th on the list of concerns. And the ones that are addressing this bill are number one and two.

25:22Emily Jashinsky:That's a good point. All right, Will, we're going to let you go. And then Emily and I have a couple more things to go through. So helpful, Will. Thanks. Thanks a lot. All right. Absolutely. Thank you. We know kids don't hold back. I wouldn't want them to. Get in there. Make a mess. Slide for home. Bring on the stains. I've got OxyClean Versatile Stain Remover. It works on over 100 stains and it's America's number one stain fighter additive brand. It's color safe and chlorine free. So I use it on whites, colors, and dark fabrics. And OxyClean isn't just for laundry. Mix it with water for use all around the house, kitchens, bathrooms, and even floors.

25:54When my kids go all in, I say go for it because I've got OxyClean to get the stains out. It's not clean unless it's OxyClean. Did you know every 36 minutes a child in the U.S. is diagnosed with cancer? Which means some of the bravest warriors you'll ever meet aren't professional athletes or superheroes. They're the kids in this fight. That's why I'm proud to support Hyundai Hope on Wheels. For the past 28 years, with support from Hyundai, their dealers, and every new Hyundai sold, Hope on Wheels has contributed over$300 million to childhood cancer research, helping save more than 40 ,000 kids.

26:27But we're not done yet. Let's bring every warrior home. Join our fight at HyundaiWarriors.com. Hi, Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. Are you looking for a beach read this summer? May I suggest your big wireless bill? It's got suspense, mystery, a slightly flat emotional arc, and a shocking twist where you realize you've been overpaying the entire time. Fortunately, though, Mint's story is better. Every plan,$15 a month, even unlimited. That's it. Happy ending. Zero tears. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for 12-month plan required.

26:57$15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. Initial plan term only greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. Okay, so that was Will Chamberlain. I guess I sort of see it from their perspective a little bit more. They just really trust Trump. I'm not saying that's rational. But okay. You trust Trump. Like the idea that you've got a bunch of people that are saying like, hey, and there have been a ton of rural hospital closures already. And you've got people saying if you do this Medicaid provider tax, you kick these other people off Medicaid, these hospitals are going to close.

27:30And the counter is I trust Trump.

27:32Emily Jashinsky:Well, but this is also an interesting point that based on what Will just said. And if you don't think there's a problem with spending overall, that this is or at least that it's not an urgent pressing problem. Well, that's what I was just going to say. Yeah. Then why make these sort of you just tweaks to a program that MAGA, as Steve Bannon has said, MAGA loves Medicaid. MAGA is on Medicaid. Why do that to sell tax cuts that will benefit everyone across the entire? I mean, these tax cuts will benefit everyone across the entire entire spectrum in the short term. Disproportionately will benefit wealthy people.

28:15Emily Jashinsky:You could have, as people like Batch Younger, Sargon have said, just not have reauthorized the top rate cuts. You could just let those expire. But if you don't think that there's a urgent debt deficit problem, Why are you worrying about paying for, why are you worrying about offsetting the tax cuts at all? You don't have to. Yeah. I guess it goes back to the Republican Party still being somewhat controlled by or at least having to deal with. It's like 1 % wing. I'm all for smart work requirements. The politics of this make absolutely no sense of packaging them together with a tax cut. for the rich.

28:58Yeah. And I think there's an interesting element. And so we'll get to Tim Burchett here in the we trust Trump and also in the we do not trust Democrats and the media that that kind of polarized people into just supporting the thing. And I think we watched it happen in real time on CNN with Burchett on the air. Well, you had Jim Jordan, who we played previously in this block saying, this bill is great because all the Democrats hate it. So that's right there. That's just explicitly polarization. Democrats don't like it, therefore it must be good. Burchett went on Breonna Keillor's program on CNN and was an undecided vote.

29:44And Trump had brought him and some other undecideds into the White House, trying to push them into supporting the bill. And then he gets into a fight with Breonna Keillor over whether or not the CBO should be trusted. And she's doing a kind of, ha-ha, gotcha, you pushed forward a resolution that said all CBO estimates should be read on the House floor. And now you're saying that CBO estimates can't be trusted on this. And his argument is, yeah, CBO is the only game in town. and also that resolution didn't pass. And, but I think the CBO is wrong on this. And then they go back and forth for a while on whether or not he's a hypocrite.

30:26And by the end of the interview, he's hardcore defending the bill. But he went from on the fence to, you know what? This bill is going to save the American Republic.

30:36Emily Jashinsky:And this echoes the Jim Jordan point also that he made in the clip we rolled earlier that, and Trump was pitching it this way, the left hates this bill. Left hates this bill. That's why it's a good bill. And so we're going to vote yes on this thing that's actually, I think, genuinely self-destruct. The left loves this bill. By the way, they're salivating over this bill because they're able to talk about entirely. Yeah, Democrats are so like they're salivating, like trying shots. He's like, I really hope the bill doesn't pass. But if it does, we are going to win the Senate. Let's hope it doesn't.

31:04So anyway, yeah, let's roll Burgin.

31:06Emily Jashinsky:What did the president say to you that made you feel maybe closer to voting yes? He talked about the economic output that we would have that was not in the CBO scores. And along those lines, he talked about other things that I'm not going to share because it was in privacy. But I think there's a lot of things that will probably be revealed when this is passed. And I think America will embrace it further. I think, again, once you do some things like straighten up Medicaid and Medicare, and you dispute a lot of the lies that are in the media about people getting kicked off. I think America understands what we're up against in this.

31:47Emily Jashinsky:Well, the CBO, which you put so much trust in for years and years that you passed a resolution wanting estimates read before bills, is very clear about how many people are going to be kicked off of health care until you were against. No, ma 'am. No, ma 'am. No, ma 'am. Listen, listen. If you want to if you want to do the editorial, just go ahead. You don't need me on here. But the CBO. I would like to see scores. I would like to see what the economic economic output of every bill. You as a taxpayer should want that too. And the CBO is the only organization we have. If I could allow a private accounting firm to do it, I would much rather that happen.

32:21But the reality is it would have to be the CBO. And what do you have against knowing how much each bill is spent? Why does the media oppose to that? Why do you all on the left always fight every chance in America knowing what's going on? The problem you all have with this bill, man, is that it gets government out of our way and let's Americans make some decisions. And maybe hardworking Americans would have a better choice and a better shot at life in this country without you all just telling us how bad things are going and trying to construct, and as you're doing with me, trying to dictate what I've said.

32:53Yeah, and he goes on from there, just the rest of the interview, he just sings the praises of the bill, and now he's for it. That clip to me is like, in the broader interview, it's like the story of our politics. It's like the issue itself gets lost and the fact that we hate each other. And so then Burgess is like, you know what? She sucks. I'm voting for this.

33:14Emily Jashinsky:I'm getting yelled at by CNN. So I'm voting for this. It's like, don't follow that train. I would also notice that, just note, that Will started with immigration enforcement. And that's how Stephen Miller's been selling this bill as the most important bill for the future of Western civilization is that they believe if you don't do their definition of mass deportation, which is different than I think the public's definition of mass deportation, but literally like deporting almost everybody, not just the worst of the worst, but almost everybody for assimilation and labor force reasons, then you don't have a country anymore.

33:50Emily Jashinsky:So from that perspective, they would probably swallow a lot of bad policy to pass a reconciliation bill with massive immigration enforcement increase. Just do your do your crackdown then. Like, I don't see why they had to lump it all in, but whatever. I didn't win. Up next, Jeremy Scahill is going to update us on his reporting on the latest in the ceasefire negotiations.

34:34for use all around the house, kitchens, bathrooms, and even floors. When my kids go all in, I say go for it because I've got OxiClean to get the stains out. It's not clean unless it's OxiClean. Did you know every 36 minutes a child in the U.S. is diagnosed with cancer? Which means some of the bravest warriors you'll ever meet aren't professional athletes or superheroes. They're the kids in this fight. That's why I'm proud to support Hyundai Hope on Wheels. For the past 28 years, with support from Hyundai, their dealers, and every new Hyundai sold, Hope on Wheels has contributed over$300 million to childhood cancer research, helping save more than 40 ,000 kids.

35:10But we're not done yet. Let's bring every warrior home. Join our fight at HyundaiWarriors.com. Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile with your summer price forecast. Now, unfortunately, we're seeing rising costs across the country with possibility that big wireless hates you 100%. Now, over here at Mint Mobile, we're seeing sunny skies and dropping prices. Every plan to just$15 a month. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for 12-month plan required. $15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only.

35:43Greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. Ceasefire negotiations are at an advanced stage. Jeremy Scahill, my colleague at DropSite News, joins us now to talk about his reporting on what we know about where we stand. Jeremy, thanks so much for being here today. Good to be with you guys. So walk us through where we are now. Donald Trump, several days ago, announced that he had gotten Israeli agreement on some version of a ceasefire. There was conspicuous silence for a while from the Israelis, but then a media campaign started rolling out about what was in this agreement.

36:19My understanding, though, is that only recently did Hamas even receive a proposal. So what is the current situation? I mean, Trump is riding really high on what he perceives to be an ultra-successful military campaign against Iran. And, you know, he's had his own series of kerfuffles in Washington over how much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program. But clearly he feels empowered now to try to keep the ball rolling with his own agenda in the Middle East. And what we've seen happen throughout the Trump administration is, on the one hand, Trump messages that he wants all these wars to be brought to an end.

37:00On the other hand, he's really fully empowered Netanyahu to continue and intensify the war and actually to expand it, not just in Lebanon with repeated violations of the ceasefire, But also these 12 days of intense Israeli bombing of Iran that then at the end became a joint U.S.-Israeli bombing operation. But, you know, setting aside any analysis we could do about what really was at play there, Trump really, I think, sees that he has momentum. And so what happened is that earlier this week, Ron Dermer, who is Netanyahu's point person and really kind of like his Roger Stone of sorts, you know, his political hitman.

37:34He arrives in Washington, D.C. for talks with a series of Trump administration officials. And what I'm told by sources is basically they concocted what they felt would be kind of the final ultimatum that would be delivered to Hamas by regional mediators from Egypt and Qatar saying, this is your last chance to make a ceasefire deal. You saw the kind of power that we unleashed in Iran. Now is your time to do it. There's been a lot of reporting over the past couple of days in the Hebrew language press, the Arabic language press, as well as in the American press, about what the terms of this proposal being put in front of Hamas are.

38:13I'm told, though, by sources on the negotiating team that despite this flurry of media reports about what the terms are, Hamas was not actually given any document until late last night. In fact, they haven't really been able to do full consultations within Hamas or the other resistance factions. I've spoken this morning to a source who's close to the negotiators that actually has that document in hand. And in general, what I would say is this. It is almost identical in most ways to the previous ultimatum that Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, delivered back in May. It does not contain any clear guarantees that Israel will not resume the military assault on Gaza after an initial 60-day period.

38:57It has very vague language about how humanitarian aid is going to come into Gaza. It doesn't say anything about the fate of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, this aid scam where Palestinians are being gunned down every day. It does mention that the United Nations and the Red Crescent are again going to be involved with the distribution of aid, but there aren't any clear definitions. Perhaps the two most significant changes or amendments, I guess, that you could say in some way inch the position more toward what Hamas wanted, is that they've sharpened some of the language about President Donald Trump.

39:34There's 13 points in this agreement. In point one and point 13, Trump is mentioned by name. And what they're saying is that Trump is committed to an actual end to the war. And as long as negotiations are conducted in good faith, that he wants to see this two-month window of a temporary truce continue on toward a resolution of the war. Hamas, though, had wanted much clearer language and they wanted Trump to guarantee that he would prevent Israel from resuming its military assault on Gaza as long as the negotiations were continuing. That language is not in this document. On a technical level, the most significant change is that the Israelis back in May wanted to have 10 living captives, Israelis held in Gaza, released within the first week of any ceasefire deal, 60-day deal.

40:20Hamas looked at that and said, then it's just going to be a one-week deal because after the Israelis are freed, Netanyahu is just going to resume the genocide. So it's not a huge change, but what we're looking at now is a formula that says eight Israelis would be released within that first week. I believe it's on day five. And then the other two living Israelis would be released on day 50. You would also have the bodies of 18 Israelis who are deceased but still in captivity in Gaza staggered out over the course of those two months. What is not mentioned in the document is how many of the more than 10 ,000 Palestinians held in detention camps and prisons in Israel are going to be released.

41:01That's unusual. In other agreements, there has been some formula cited for how many Palestinian captives are going to be released. The language on this is very vague. While there is not, again, Ryan, you and I have talked about this on this show before, Hamas has offered to relinquish governing authority of Gaza. They put it in writing. It was in their draft that we talked about on this show a couple of months ago. It is not in the actual text of this agreement. And, you know, Israel and the United States, for whatever reasons, have taken that term out every time Hamas has put it forward. But I was told last night by a senior Hamas official that the mediators have made clear to Hamas that that is a condition that Israel and the United States are going to insist on.

41:41And what is unclear is who takes power if Hamas does relinquish its authority. It's not just a resistance movement. It's a government. So a lot of questions up in the air. And the final thing I'll say on this is that while Hamas, I think Hamas is very seriously considering taking this deal, even though they don't think it's a good deal. They're under a lot of pressure. These guys, the negotiators, all have family members that have been killed. People are suffering immensely in Gaza and there is unprecedented pressure against Hamas right now, not in a hostile way, but in a desperate way. please make a deal.

42:14So I'm told that they're giving very serious consideration to it. The question is if they're going to be able to get some amendments to this language. Last time this happened, Hamas came through and put a whole new proposal on the table. I'm told that they're looking now at a more surgical approach where they're going to zero in on what they've defined as their red lines. They really don't want Israel to be able to resume the genocide and they want a full Israeli withdrawal. What is not in this document is anything about the Philadelphia corridor, which is a very crucial part of Gaza because it represents, it's in the south of Gaza, it represents the only gateway to a world beyond Israeli control for Palestinians.

42:50It's on the Egyptian border. We reported some days ago, Ryan, that mediators last week told Hamas that they may have to be willing to concede the timeline for an Israeli withdrawal from the from the Philadelphia corridor. So I think what we're seeing here, just to sum it up, is it's basically the same ultimatum that was put on the table with a few amendments that seem aimed at trying to give Hamas something. Hamas is very clear eyed about it. A senior official told me last night that Trump is a crucial part of what he called Israel's deception operation. Even though they say that this is a deception, they're wide eyed about it.

43:27They understand what the stakes are. And so I think we're going to see some really intense attempts at negotiation. I get the sense that Hamas very much wants to make a deal.

43:36Emily Jashinsky:And it was announced just a couple of days ago that Netanyahu will be at the White House on Monday, Jeremy, which seems to signal confidence from the Trump administration that something's coming. What does the timeline look like and what did you make of that announcement? Yeah, I mean, you know, as often happens with Netanyahu, he sort of projects one message in English and another message in Hebrew. Netanyahu has been totally unhinged, belligerent in his Hebrew language remarks over the past 24 to 48 hours, where he's saying, we're not going to stop the war until Hamas is totally eradicated. We're going to kill everyone with a gun.

44:10We're not going to have Hamasistan anymore. On the other hand, you know, what we're hearing is that Trump really wants to kind of put on a show with this. I think he wants to make a big announcement when Netanyahu is in town. Also, we can report based on Israeli media accounts from well-connected journalists that there is talk again of another side letter, a secret side letter that Trump apparently has told the Israelis he will give them, saying that they can resume the war in Gaza if Hamas does not leave power and disarm. So, you know, it's sort of Groundhog Day again. I think that, you know, with Netanyahu coming to Washington, Trump wants to put on a big show.

44:51He wants to make a big announcement. He wants to sort of portray himself, you know, in a way that's going to go down in archival reels that are going to be shown, you know, for decades to come. He may get that moment. The real question is, is Trump serious about ending this war? Because if he is, he can put Netanyahu in a corner. The Israelis don't seem to think Trump is going to do that. I think Netanyahu feels like this is sort of his own victory tour of sorts. So we'll see what happens. So to your point about Hamas being under significant pressure. Our colleague Abu Bakr Abed had posted yesterday, and we can put this up maybe in post, he said, growing and pressuring calls among Gazans to accept the Qatari proposal for a ceasefire that people are desperate beyond words for arrest.

45:3560 days can offer a huge source of relief and respite from the ongoing Holocaust. It's better than nothing. I hope it will happen. I think it's a good representation of the desperation at play here, despite the fact that Abu Bakr and everybody else understands that it could be just 50 or 60 days, and then he resumes it again. Like, how confident, like how, like, what's the confidence level among people that actually, yeah, that, okay, we'll take it because it's 50 days of peace, or even, let's say, 60 days of peace. But like, how certain are people that Netanyahu will actually just use that side letter and go right back into war, yet are considering it anyway.

46:20I mean, I think a lot of this also boils down to Donald Trump's relationships with leaders in the Arab world. Clearly, Qatar, Egypt, others want this to be brought to an end. They haven't ever raised the prospect of using military force to end it. But it's quite clear that Trump has deepening relationships with Saudi Arabia. He wants to push forward with his so-called Abraham Accords and get potentially Syria or Lebanon to join on. Saudi Arabia would be the big prize. So there is some motivation for Trump to try to make this thing stick. But at the end of the day, I spoke to a source close to the negotiations right before I spoke to you guys, and what he's saying is, look, they realize that after 30 days or 60 days, the Israelis could resume this genocide.

47:08But from their perspective, they still would have cards. They would have 10 living Israeli captives. They would have about a dozen or so bodies of deceased Israelis. They don't feel like they would have depleted everything they have, but they will be giving up half of what they view as the only negotiating assets that they have. I really get the sense that they feel like they need to make a deal right now. So I think we're going to see a last minute flurry of activity where they try to get some concessions or even get a side letter of their own from the White House, which I've been told by sources is a possibility, saying like, look, we can't put this in the real deal.

47:45But as long as Qassan brigades and Soraya Al-Quds are not firing on the Israelis, meaning that they're not the ones breaking the ceasefire, and as long as you are negotiating in good faith, Trump is committed to making sure aid flow continues beyond 60 days and that the Israelis are not going to resume a full scorched earth bombing campaign. I think Palestinians are in an unspeakable situation right now. The level of desperation is off the charts. The entire society is being slowly strangled to death. And these guys negotiating this deal, as cartoonishly as they're portrayed, they're not immune to it.

48:20Some of them, their mothers have been killed. Their brothers have been killed. Their children have been killed. You know, we think of them in a cartoonish way, but actually as Adam Bowler, you know, after he met with Hamas, said, you know, they're human beings too. So I think what they're trying to do is get the best deal they can get that doesn't surrender the cause of Palestinian liberation. And that's why they fought so hard to get that withdrawal and a commitment that the genocide won't be resumed. Well, Jeremy, thank you for your reporting on this and thanks for joining us. We'll certainly continue to follow it.

48:48Thank you, guys. We know kids don't hold back. And I wouldn't want them to. Get in there, make a mess, slide for home, bring on the stains. I've got OxyClean Versatile Stain Remover. It works on over 100 stains, and it's America's number one stain fighter additive brand. It's color-safe and chlorine-free, so I use it on whites, colors, and dark fabrics. And OxyClean isn't just for laundry. Mix it with water for use all around the house, kitchens, bathrooms, and even floors. When my kids go all in, I say go for it, because I've got OxyClean to get the stains out. It's not clean unless it's OxyClean.

49:21Did you know every 36 minutes a child in the U.S. is diagnosed with cancer? Which means some of the bravest warriors you'll ever meet aren't professional athletes or superheroes. They're the kids in this fight. That's why I'm proud to support Hyundai Hope on Wheels. For the past 28 years, with support from Hyundai, their dealers, and every new Hyundai sold, Hope on Wheels has contributed over$300 million to childhood cancer research, helping save more than 40 ,000 kids. But we're not done yet. Let's bring every warrior home. Join our fight at HyundaiWarriors.com. This is Tony Ayo from The Real Report with Tony Ayo and Uncle Murda.

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50:27Imagine something in your budget actually staying the same. You'll pay the same for unlimited wireless when you're posting mirror selfies in your 20s and when you're posting mirror selfies in retirement. Some things never change. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up, only at Boost Mobile. After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay$25 a month as long as they remain active on the Booth's Unlimited plan. Israel's ongoing assault of Gaza has led to a radical transformation of views when it comes to Israel and Palestinians. Harry Antony of CNN has shocking poll numbers.

51:05Who do Democrats sympathize more with, Israelis or Palestinians? In 2017, the Democratic Party was a pro-Israeli party. Look at this. They sympathized with the Israelis by 13 points. more with the Israelis than the Palestinians. But look at this sea change. Now Democrats sympathize more with the Palestinians by 43 points. Oh my God, that is a change in the margin of 56 points over the course of just eight years. So all of a sudden, it's the pro-Palestinian position that actually reigns supreme in democratic politics, not the Israeli position. Now you see this, you see this among Democrats overall, right?

51:40But we know that Mondani's base was younger voters within the Democratic Party. And so I want to break it down with younger Democrats. Correct. So take a look here. Who age 18 to 49 Democrats sympathize more with the Israelis or the Palestinians? Again, in 2017, younger Democrats sympathize more with the Israelis by 14 points. Look at this shift now. Palestinians, they sympathize more with the Palestinians by 57 points. That is an over 70 point shift in the margin in just a matter of eight years. I rarely ever see shifts like this, Kate, in which you see one side of the equation leading by 14 points eight years ago.

52:15And then all of a sudden the other side of the equation leading by 57 points. The bottom line is the politics around the Israelis and the Palestinians have shifted tremendously among Democrats. And they've shifted specifically tremendously among Democrats who are under the age of 50. They have just shifted more so than I think that anyone could possibly have imagined, say, eight years ago. Yeah. So, Emily, that is a major swing. And I'm not shocked that there has been a shift. You can kind of watch it happening in real time. but a 70-point swing among young voters. And by young, he meant under 50, which I'd be young, and I don't consider myself young.

52:53Emily Jashinsky:Congratulations on your newly rediscovered youth. Yeah, I'm young, according to Harry Anton. But across the board, a massive shift. How much of the—and we're also seeing a shift in the Republican Party. Yeah, particularly young. Particularly among young voters. Yeah. So how do you think this kind of reshapes the way that this issue affects our politics? Well, I mean, you've written so extensively about AIPAC, and I think we're seeing—and also, like, the Jonathan Greenblatt's and the Anti-Defamation League people, we're seeing a complete freakout because they coasted off America's good vibes on Israel for a really long time, especially inculcated in the minds of so many Americans after 9-11.

53:46Emily Jashinsky:Don't need to debate the reason. But obviously there was just an immense sensitivity to radical terrorists in the United States in those years. And so it was much easier for them to frame Israel as a sort of good versus bad Manichean dichotomy. Like it just was – they took for granted how easy that was. So now you see they're freak out trying to paint people like Rameza Ozturk as Hamas sympathizers. And I don't think – That's the tough student who was recently released but jailed for the op-ed. Right. Yeah. Just like snatched off the street by apparently ICE agents. And so anyway, all that is to say, they have a lot less power than they used to.

54:33Emily Jashinsky:And that is going to materialize, I think, in the next couple of cycles as politicians who take their money realize it's not as helpful for them to be taking the positions that they need to in order to get the money. And I don't know that that'll show up right away. But it's I mean, I think the polling is pretty clear that it's already showed up. But I don't know how powerful it will be as an electoral force in the next four to eight years. But it is going to be a powerful electoral force. They've lost the public support that they coasted off of. And I think some of this is a backlash to AIPAC and the pro-resural lobby kind of interfering in democratic politics in a way that has not done them favors.

55:19And so in my last book, The Squad has this history in it. So that poll started in 2017. 2018, you get the squad elected, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar in particular, becoming the first two Muslim women to serve in Congress. And in early 2019, Democratic Majority for Israel, DMFI, formed as basically an offshoot of AIPAC by AIPAC supporters and AIPAC consultants specifically to push back against Tlaib and Omar. That was their, that's why they rolled out. They said that they were seeing a current of what they called anti-Israel sentiment within the Democratic Party, and they were going to spend enormous amounts of money to suppress that.

56:07If you look at the numbers since then, DMFI and AIPAC have been engaged in the greatest failure of political operations, like, ever. Like, what an absolute, like, catastrophe for them. If their goal was to do the thing they set out to, they instead did the opposite. it. So they launched in 2019. The first candidate they ever spent money against, actually, was Bernie Sanders in Iowa. They then spent enormous amounts of money defending this guy, Elliot Engel, who was the chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee in the House, who was being challenged by Jamal Bowman. They spent millions of dollars against Bowman, and Bowman beat him and knocked him out anyway.

56:57And so what they concluded from that 2020 cycle was that they had not spent enough money. And so if DMFI raised more money for 2022, APAC itself launched its first ever super PAC. It had never had a super PAC before. They had always just done small contributions of maxing out directly to candidates.

57:19Emily Jashinsky:And buying goodwill with trips and those sorts of things. Goodwill with trips. And then if you cross us, we will fund a primary challenger and we will take you out. And you only have to do that a couple of times. And then everybody else is like, okay, don't care this much about that issue. I stand with Israel. You tell me what to do and I'll say it. So in 2022, they spent somewhere around 30 or$50 million going after Democrats who had said things that were sympathetic towards Palestinians. And they succeeded. They spent like$7,$8 million stopping Donna Edwards from coming back to Congress because in 2009 she had voted against some uh 2008 there was another israeli war on gaza she had voted the wrong way on one resolution and so they were like they spent seven million dollars to stop her they spent many millions of dollars in like north carolina to stop this city council candidate nita alam um from becoming a member of congress she she famously had been friends with the four, there were three or four Muslim students, if you remember in Chapel Hill, who were killed in like this brutal hate crime, like killed because they were Muslim.

58:36And she then became like got into politics as a result of that was city council member and was trying to go to Congress, would have won, ended up losing by like two points because they spent like$7 million. Then in 2024, and so across the board, they really blunted the growth of the squad, like politicians. 2024, they spend 20 million against Jamal Bowman and knock him out, and 10 million or so against Cori Bush, knock her out, and spend$100 million in primaries across the country in the Democratic primaries, making sure that nobody is critical of Israel. And so they were effectively able to beat a decent number of candidates.

59:18Like the Democratic caucus would look different when it comes to Israel-Palestine than it does now, if not for all of this spending. But good Lord, the public, it has not worked on the Democratic public. In fact, if anything, it seems like it's backfired.

59:33Emily Jashinsky:Well, it often takes time because we're not a direct democracy. We're a republic for the makeup of elected officials to catch up with public opinion. And that's one of the things Trump like forced among Republican voters is that you now have like a Jim Banks in the Senate, for example, or you now have. And even if you dispute that they're helping the working class, I know that that's a raging argument, obviously. But even if you dispute that, they at least understand public opinion. They're reflecting public opinion. And that hasn't quite happened on this issue yet. But I don't think either major political party understands how much it's about to happen because they've been scapegoating this idea that all the anti-Israel sentiment is anti-Western Marxism as opposed to just saying this is insane.

1:00:23Emily Jashinsky:This is wildly bad policy. It's not making us safer. And I just don't think they're fully ready for how that's going to manifest in public opinion. Those numbers don't just reflect a shift. I think they reflect, especially for younger people, a shift in the like this is way down on the list of most American voters priorities. It still is. But it's getting increasingly important to people. It's becoming increasingly animating because people are so pissed off about what they're seeing now that the media gatekeepers are less powerful. This information is coming through drop site. It's coming through breaking points.

1:01:00Emily Jashinsky:And I don't know, Ryan, the last question that I have on this is how much of it is the way the Netanyahu government has waged this war since October 7th. And like, listen, we could go back and debate the history of how Israel has conducted itself in previous decades before October 7th. It seems that everyone at least agrees that what's happened since October 7th has been on another scale. Yeah, I think basically that's all of it. Like, it's the public recoiling at what they're seeing. And actually, for an unbelievably crystallizing example of that, let's pull up. Can you pull up C2? This is a SOT.

1:01:43What appear to be heavily armed American security contractors at one of the sites discuss how to disperse Palestinians nearby. Hey, I got IDF tank posted on the northwest corner now. I brought a man to talk to him there. Let me show first. I told him to hold there. I don't want this to be too aggressive. At that moment, bursts of gunfire erupt close by, at least 15 shots.

1:02:13The camera's view is obscured by a large dirt mound. The contractor who took the video told AP that he saw other contractors shooting in the direction of Palestinians who had just collected their food and were departing. That's video obtained by the Associated Press. That was posted yesterday, along with a long investigation into allegations from American consultants working with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, who say that what the Palestinians have been saying and what Haaretz has reported recently is true, that people connected to GHF have been firing at aid seekers. And what you heard in that video was 15 gunshots followed by, I think you hit one.

1:03:02And then, yeah, hell yeah, boy. Now, there's a mound, so you can't see exactly what's happening. And that apparently has even left some room for apologists to say, well, you know, who knows what could have happened? And yeah, he said, we heard the gunshot and he said, you hit one. And then they celebrated hitting one. And later in that investigation, a guy says he saw somebody fall.

1:03:32Emily Jashinsky:Right. Like after the shot and a celebration of having hit one, they saw somebody fall. This is Hamas is nowhere around here. This is there's this is not a live battle between Hamas and Gaza. Right. It's not a live battle. But the claim that I think is, I mean, probably obvious is that there are Hamas people who are getting aid. Right. I'm not saying it justifies it. I'm just saying there plausibly are Hamas people in the crowd. But that doesn't mean that's not what that's not what they're going after. Right. Might be a guy who used to be part of Hamas or. Yeah. And but he's going and getting a box or something.

1:04:07But, yeah, they're not.

1:04:08Emily Jashinsky:Right. GHF is not claiming that's why they're shooting. Right. They claim they're not shooting at them. Right. Like they straight up deny that what you just saw in that video is happening. So I play that as an example, I think, of the reason that you're seeing these numbers shift. It's horrifying. And nobody can support shooting at hungry people. Yep. Unarmed hungry people. And one of the interesting things about after that Harats report, I don't know if you picked up on this. I know I'm maybe it's maybe it's just me maybe it's naivete but I thought it was very interesting that the Israeli government um announced that they were doing an investigation instead of just flatly denying I mean obviously they're denying it but they didn't dismiss it and the reports as that they changed their rules of engagement yeah and you've now had IDF soldiers complaining yeah um that it's harder to get permission to shoot these quote-unquote warning shots at people after they changed the rules.

1:05:09They said, we're not really doing this, but then they changed the rules of engagement on whether they could do it. And so the Democratic leadership has been, you know, mostly immune from a lot of this pressure because of all the money spent by DMFI and AIPAC. But let's take a look at how voters now feel about their own Democratic leaders. This is B3. Party leaders, Democrats who say they want to replace their party leaders. Look at this. 62 percent nationally say yes, compared to just 24 percent who say no. That lines up with the idea that Democrats view their own members of Congress, their own leaders in Congress, record low approval rating.

1:05:50Democrats right now are out for blood. They want to take out their party leaders. And you saw that with Andrew Cuomo going adios amigos. Goodbye. See you later in New York this past Tuesday. And Emily, that is not the Democratic Party that I know. The Democratic Party base has always been a kind of support the leaders, support the leadership. To have them in this open state of rebellion is a genuinely new phenomenon.

1:06:19Emily Jashinsky:Well, I wonder, I mean, yeah, that is a really big distinction between what happened post Tea Party and what happened with Democrats, because it was pretty obvious that Republicans were furious with leadership. I think it was pretty obvious that Democrats had a lot of reasons to be furious with leadership, but they kept... And yet. Yeah. But I don't know. I wonder if it's just because they didn't feel like there was any alternative to Democratic leadership. And it also, I think Democratic leadership was much more are willing to signal cultural solidarity with the progressive wing, meaning they were using it, and you've written about this, they were using some of it as a shield, saying Equality Act, trans rights, in ways that signaled equity, in ways that signaled solidarity with progressives.

1:07:08Emily Jashinsky:And I wonder actually if that got them by for a decade and it's just not working anymore. Maybe. I don't know. Whatever it is, something is changing. and also it seems like all of this has shut Richie Torres up for a second, which is quite amazing. Put up before, this is just kind of an amusing development, I guess. You can go check out this tweet from Hamid Ben-Ez. He says, here's a remarkable stat showing the Zoran effect. The account Richie Torres hasn't tweeted either the word Israel or Hamas since June 18th, 14 days ago. It's now more. That is the longest stretch by seven days that Torres has not tweeted one of those words since October 7th, 2023.

1:07:54And you can just scroll through the Richie Torres' quote post. So Torres, the most kind of outspoken Democrat when it comes to support for Israel, the most combative and aggressive out there. for him to be quiet for this long, I think, reflects that there is a centrifugal force involved in those numbers.

1:08:19Emily Jashinsky:Hey, I mean, I can't think of Richie Torres anymore without flashing back to Jamal Bowman with his arm around you and Griffin at the Zeron. That was something else. He's a whack MF. Maybe that did it, actually. Maybe that was Richie Torres was like, you're right, and I am whack. And he's since... That's true. Jamal Bowman just canceled him. It's the Bowman effect. Actually canceled him. Amazing. Things are changing. Things are changing. That's for sure.

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