In short
This episode of Breaking Points focuses on three linked storylines: Israel’s internal political crisis under Netanyahu, the war and humanitarian conditions in Gaza/West Bank, and Iran’s reaction after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Guests
Noga Tarnopolsky, an Israeli journalist in Jerusalem and Substack creator (BB and Beyond). She explains Netanyahu’s “coup/insurrection” framing, arguing the government is defying a Supreme Court ruling on media regulation and setting a precedent that Supreme Court rulings don’t bind the state. Key claims include that this is unprecedented in Israel’s 78-year history and that Netanyahu empowered extreme figures (Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister/West Bank portfolio figure) who may affect detainee treatment.
Notable examples
Dr. Hossam Abu Safiya, a celebrated Kamal Adwan Hospital doctor in administrative detention, allegedly tortured and facing possible fatal brain bleeding; the Supreme Court/NGO Physicians for Human Rights deadline to demand health/treatment information.
Episode also covers Iran’s massive Khamenei funeral in Tehran with “Death to America” chants, tens of thousands of mourners, and the conspicuous absence of successor Moshen Khamenei. The hosts argue the turnout signals IRGC strength and broad opposition to the U.S., while discussing Trump’s comments and alleged ceasefire/assassination fears.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VODiscussing Netanyahu's Political Situation
0:45 to 1:54
Krystal and Saagar delve into Netanyahu's interview and current political challenges in Israel.
“But actually, the newsletter, if you haven't checked it out yet, please do.”
Iran's Funeral and Regional Updates
1:54 to 2:44
The hosts discuss the funeral held in Iran and ongoing issues in the Middle East.
“Who else would we talk to but Benjamin Netanyahu, the representative of our final congressional district, as Mike Huckabee recently put it.”
Fourth of July Speeches Analysis
2:44 to 3:23
Analyzing Trump's and Mamdani's Fourth of July speeches as contrasting political figures.
“Mamdani also gave a Fourth of July speech, kind of dueling speeches.”
Michigan Senate Race Updates
3:23 to 4:37
Discussion on the latest developments in the Michigan Senate race.
“leaving El-Sayed and Haley Stevens as the remaining candidates in the Michigan Senate race.”
Soccer and Corruption in Sports
4:37 to 5:26
The hosts discuss Trump's influence in soccer and corruption in the sport.
“We're going to start now with Netanyahu's interview on Fox News, where he's laughing off J.D.”
Netanyahu's Claims and Facebook Support
5:26 to 8:30
Analyzing Netanyahu's claims about support from India and the implications.
“And boy, do we have a tremendous support there.”
Updates on Gaza and Dr. Hossam Abu Safiya
8:30 to 11:15
Discussion on the treatment of Dr. Hossam Abu Safiya and conditions in Gaza.
“And so it's true that there's some like ideological or whatever you would call it sympathy there.”
West Bank Developments and Casualties
11:15 to 14:03
Covering the latest violent incidents in the West Bank and Gaza.
“He keeps hanging on against these Democratic attacks, trying to he's one of the remaining what you would, you know, outside of supporting an extremist genocidal state, moderate Republican.”
Israeli Conflict Updates and Shocking Incidents
14:03 to 17:31
Learn about recent violent events in Gaza and distressing military actions.
“So whether they're going to follow the orders of the Supreme Court remains to be seen.”
Netanyahu's Media Control Plans
17:32 to 18:55
Explore Netanyahu's attempts to consolidate media control in Israel.
“Now, what's going on in the Israeli political system, which we've been teasing here, is quite incredible.”
Show all 25 chapters
Constitutional Crisis Explained
18:56 to 22:30
Understand the implications of the Israeli government's defiance of the Supreme Court.
“And again, we have a guest who's going to break some of these internal political dynamics down for us.”
Expert Insights on the Israeli Coup
22:31 to 28:00
Gain insights from journalist Noga Tarnopolsky regarding the current political upheaval.
“I mean, Israel, lest we forget, is a fairly young country.”
Political Dynamics of Netanyahu's Government
28:00 to 29:00
Explore the reactions and statements from Israeli officials regarding Netanyahu's government.
“Abusafia, you know, these are the guys who have the power to do it.”
Cracks in the Likud Party
29:00 to 31:00
Discussion on the internal disagreements within Likud and potential consequences.
“anarchy um the attorney general who i'm as i mentioned to is a civil servant but she came out with a very, very powerful statement, basically saying, this is an assault on the rule of law.”
Netanyahu's Legislative Strategy
31:00 to 33:19
Analysis of Netanyahu's attempt to pass controversial laws to maintain power amidst impending elections.
“And so one is the cabinet secretary, not a minister of the cabinet secretary, put out a very confused, bizarre statement last night, basically saying, no, we didn't say we won't adhere to Supreme Court ruling.”
Ideological Similarities in Israeli Parties
33:19 to 35:40
Discussing the ideological connections between Likud and the Ben-Gavir party.
“So he wants to come back from DC and say, well, so, you know, I didn't vote for them.”
A New Perspective on Israeli Politics
35:40 to 38:24
Insight into the changing ideology within the Likud party and its implications.
“This is a government that in its totality is very, very extreme.”
Iran's Response to Khamenei's Death
38:24 to 42:00
Coverage of the massive mourning events in Iran following the Supreme Leader's death.
“And BB &B is the substack that she just launched, Israeli journalist.”
Understanding 'Death to America' Chants
42:00 to 44:32
Explore the cultural context and implications of the 'Death to America' chants in current geopolitics.
“But not as much saltiness as you might have seen in the past.”
Consequences of U.S. Military Actions
44:32 to 47:18
Discuss the unintended consequences of U.S. military interventions, particularly in the Middle East.
“Is it a much friendlier country to the United States, like significantly friendlier country to the United States?”
The Ayatollah's Funeral and Power Dynamics
47:18 to 49:48
Analyze the significance of the Ayatollah's funeral and the power struggles within Iran.
“The reporting was that he wanted to be there and was really pressured not to be there for what they say are security reasons.”
U.S.-Israel Relations and Assassination Threats
49:48 to 52:24
Examine the complexities of U.S.-Israel relations and the threats to Iranian negotiators.
“officials were concerned that Israel might try to assassinate Iran's negotiators during recent ceasefire talks.”
Shipping and Oil Recovery in the Strait of Hormuz
52:24 to 56:00
Discuss the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amidst ongoing conflict.
“So we've also been told that Hamas is totally decimated.”
Global Shipping and Strategic Reserves
56:00 to 59:57
Discussion on the state of global oil shipments and strategic reserves post-conflict.
“And as Citibank points out, 7 million is what they counted.”
Yemen's Political Landscape and Houthi Dynamics
59:57 to 1:00:16
Analysis of recent Houthi actions in Yemen and their implications for regional stability.
“because they're fighting each other over in Sudan too.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Hey guys, Saagar and Krystal here.
0:01Ryan Grim:Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else. So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com.
0:33Good morning and welcome to Breaking Points, the show we put together so that we have the material for the famous newsletter that we have launched.
0:41Emily Jashinsky:That's right. The newsletter now takes supremacy. Everyone's talking about the newsletter. But actually, the newsletter, if you haven't checked it out yet, please do. It is really cool. Basically, it's... Look at Socker and Crystal. It's laughing at the promo if you're listening to this and it's actually kind of adorable. But that's where you get a breakdown of the show with all the links that we've used to put it together in your inbox. I think it's a very cool product. So BreakingPoints.com is where you can go to sign up. It's actually free. There's a free version of the newsletter. If you want to pay and get a media newsletter, you can also sign up for a premium subscription at BreakingPoints.com.
1:17Emily Jashinsky:Now, if you're still having any issues that's going to your spam folder or something like that, first of all, check your spam folder if you haven't gotten it. But otherwise, if you need more help, go to help at kit.com. Shoot them an email. Let them know help at kit.com, and they'll take care of it for you. But, Ryan, I guess we have to do the show part to get to the newsletter part. Maybe we don't even have to do it. We can just pretend we do it and put it in the newsletter. Or we could just dub ourselves with AI. There you go. But actually, the newsletter pulls quotes from the show, which is kind of wild.
1:46Oh, yeah. So we've got to say some stuff.
1:47Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, we've got to say something interesting at least once a segment. So that's the goal. We are going to start with Netanyahu, who did an interview on Fox News yesterday. We're celebrating the 4th of July. Who else would we talk to but Benjamin Netanyahu, the representative of our final congressional district, as Mike Huckabee recently put it. Did he really say that? Yes, he did. We are—he said Jerusalem was. But we are going to get into a little bit of the political problems at home for Netanyahu as well today, right? Because those are starting to mount as well. And he pulled off a coup, basically.
2:22Emily Jashinsky:We have a guest who's going to break that down for us. But also, we're going to be talking about the funeral held in Iran this weekend, along with some updates in Lebanon and updates in Iran as well. But you're going to want to see the images and hear some quotes from the funeral that was held for Khomeini this weekend. So lots to get into on that. Trump gave a big Fourth of July speech. Mamdani also gave a Fourth of July speech, kind of dueling speeches. is it was interesting that mom donnie's was so um what's the right way it was it was a huge topic of discussion uh and almost to the point where he became the leader of the left as trump is the leader of the right like it's almost over it's almost like they're the dueling figures in american politics right now uh mayor of new york city so we have lots to break down from that big big news out of michigan yesterday where mallory mcmorrow dropped out of the race that was kind of a spoiler for the segment.
3:17Emily Jashinsky:The abundant, well, I think since it's news, I think we can spoil news. The abundance candidate has dropped out, leaving El-Sayed and Haley Stevens as the remaining candidates in the Michigan Senate race. We'll talk about how that happened, what it means. And then Trump, for once, used his powers of corruption for the United States instead of robbing the United States. He made a phone call to, He is the FIFA Peace Prize winner, famously. So he has some privileges. So he made a phone call to the head of FIFA, and he got Flo's red card suspended. Yep. Well, the red card's still in place, but the suspension afterwards is suspended.
4:02Yeah. So he will play tonight.
4:04Emily Jashinsky:He will play. If Belgium shows up. Yeah. They're angry. How could you not be? Come on. Play the best players. I agree. I mean, these people spend all of their time watching soccer and we just dipped in. Yes, but we have finally caught on that in order to be serious about soccer or football, you have to be corrupt. America has arrived on the football scene. We now understand how to play this game. All right. Well, just as a reminder, breakingpoints.com, premium subscription, and you can sign up for the newsletter there as well. Let's get to the show. We're going to start now with Netanyahu's interview on Fox News, where he's laughing off J.D.
4:46Emily Jashinsky:Vance's claim that Israel is losing support around the world. Let's go ahead and take a look at A2. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.
5:03Ryan Grim:What was your reaction when you heard that? First of all, I respect J.D. Vance. We have a very good relationship, but it doesn't mean that I agree with everything that he says. And I have to point out this. Donald Trump is great, the greatest friend we ever had in the White House. And I stand by that completely. Secondly, we have some other friends, like a small country called India. You know, it has 1.4 billion people. And boy, do we have a tremendous support there. You know, I have this Facebook thing, and I'm just flooded by the overwhelming support there. And we have many others. Let me tell you where we have support, because it's fashionable now in many countries, because their media and their social media are inundated with anti-Israel, anti-Semitic material.
5:58Many leaders, you know, call me up and say, hey, look, I've got this problem with public opinion, but I want you to know we respect you. And can we make some deals and can you teach us some of the things that your military does? And can we have some of your AI and cyber expertise? You know, Israel is the number two country in cyber in the world. And our technology is so good. So the relations are not quite as they appear. And we have many, many friends. And I have to tell you, we also take care of our friends, especially the Christians in the Middle East. The Christian villages in Lebanon, some of them have actually asked to be annexed to Israel because we protect them against the Hezbollah fanatics who want to kill them.
6:45And we do the same things with Christians everywhere. Well, you're leading Christians in the Middle East.
6:49Emily Jashinsky:Well, meanwhile, let's go ahead and take a look at this footage from southern Lebanon over the weekend. We can roll the next element. You see this on your on your screen. Ryan, the strikes have continued very much. Yes, they're diminished, reduced. So oftentimes what Israel means by a ceasefire is that their attacks are going to be reduced from what they were before. certainly not not go to zero so you're you're seeing and we'll talk about some of the ongoing killings in gaza as well but i had to listen to that netanyahu comment a couple times because i was like did he really say it's not true that israel is isolated because there are a lot of indians on facebook that are supportive i went back and watched you don't believe me go back Like, scroll back, watch that again.
7:40That is, in fact, the argument. Think about the superpower level of propaganda that has come out of the Israeli government for decades. And compare it to what Netanyahu is now saying. That they are not completely globally isolated because there are Indian bot farms, basically, that are whipping up support on Facebook. Facebook.
8:06Emily Jashinsky:I mean, even just citing one additional country was quite interesting from Netanyahu. He was like, we have a little friend called India. And you should see him on Facebook. He's like, it's not nothing, but it's not undermining J.D. Vance's point. The Hindu nationalism that is surging in India has as much hatred of Islam embedded in it as Netanyahu does. And so it's true that there's some like ideological or whatever you would call it sympathy there. And it is very true that Indian social media is very supportive of Israel. Like all that is true. It is just kind of embarrassing that that's the last thing you're hanging your hat on.
8:47When he's talking about Christian villages in southern Lebanon, you know what he, you know what Israel did say to Christian villages in southern Lebanon? if you shelter any Muslims who are fleeing from our attacks, we will level you too. So that is the expression of the love that Netanyahu says he has for Lebanese expressions. Also, finally, Israel is in the Middle East. It's just so odd to me that he would be that transparently hostile to Muslims while being in the Middle East. like to just transparently say look christians like us which isn't true because they are ruthless to christians both in palestine and in southern lebanon but even if that were true like to to just explicitly come out and just say you've basically written off relations with the population of like 90 plus percent of the middle east that where you where you exist is
9:48Emily Jashinsky:uh is a choice i see what you're saying i mean the obvious response to that is he would say well there's a lot of hostility coming towards us as well. Except he says his best friends are Saudi Arabia, the UAE. He's got friends in Qatar even though he doesn't like all the countries. Well that's part of his political problem. He has a bunch of friends in Lebanon. They fund a bunch of people in Syria. He loves the Kurds or he claims to. So he claims the Abraham Accords are based on the idea that he can coexist with all of these other Muslim countries. But when he's being honest, he's like, you know who I really like and loves me?
10:25India. And you should see him on Facebook. Yeah, go ahead and look at some of the comments that these Indians are making on Facebook. It would make Nick Fuentes blush.
10:38Emily Jashinsky:Also interesting that Fox News' Jackie Heinrich got that interview. I don't want to leave the segment without noting that her husband, Brian Fitzpatrick, they literally just got married a couple of weeks ago. I pulled up on Track APAC, the Pennsylvania delegation. He has taken the most money from pro-Israel PACs in the entire Pennsylvania delegation, more than Fetterman, more than Brendan Boyle. Like actually by a huge margin, he's taken 924 ,000, almost a million. And that's like actually way ahead of everybody else in the Pennsylvania delegation, which, again, just to note, includes John Fetterman, according to the Track APAC numbers.
11:13Philadelphia suburbs, he's a very talented politician. He keeps hanging on against these Democratic attacks, trying to he's one of the remaining what you would, you know, outside of supporting an extremist genocidal state, moderate Republican.
11:28Emily Jashinsky:Let's go and talk about updates from Gaza as well, because there were some over the weekend. Let's put a four up now. So this is Dr. Hossam Abu Safiya, who was, if people will remember here, arrested in December of 2024 at Kamal Adwan Hospital. His hospital was surrounded and he continued operating and treating patients as the IDF was sacking the hospital. There was this famous photo of him, if you remember seeing him, walking across the rubble toward an Israeli tank in order to be detained. So that was almost two years ago at this point. All of the information that has come out from his family and his attorneys over the preceding succeeding time is that he has been tortured just relentlessly, lost an extraordinary amount of weight.
12:23And so he finally he's been moved. He's no charges whatsoever. Just administrative detention that they just every six months, they just keep him in administrative detention. So he's just a hostage. And so he recently met with his lawyer and he's as he got transferred to another underground prison and he told his lawyer, quote, this is the end. This is the last time you'll see me. They brought me here to kill me. And the lawyer said he had bruises on his eyes, his ears, his head. And there was serious fear that he has brain bleeding from the torture that is going to kill him. And we'll talk about this in a little bit with an Israeli journalist.
13:10The high court in Israel has ordered him, has ordered the IDF to present some information about his case. Because there is like serious attention on his case. A very celebrated physician. He wrote a column for the New York Times, which is not a column, he wrote an op-ed, which is what people suspect is why they've been treating him so viciously as an example. Like you think you're a celebrated physician who can speak in the New York Times about what's going on in Gaza? No, we're going to show that we're not afraid to torture even somebody like that. And so think about it. If we'll torture him, you, who is a much lesser figure, who's not in the New York Times, is not a celebrated physician, like you have no chance.
14:02now that Israel is going through a either a coup or a constitutional crisis. So whether they're going to follow the orders of the Supreme Court remains to be seen. A couple other West Bank developments that we can get to really quickly if you want to. Yeah. Like a couple, a couple of crazy things where you, we had, you know, you have to just repeatedly check these to be like, is this, is this possible that this is, this is really going on? We'll Anybody who wants this, this is the update from Dropside about the latest killings in Gaza. You can pause that and read those if you want to. A father was killed a year ago.
14:42They just killed his son over the weekend. And they continue to recover bodies. You can put up...
14:51Emily Jashinsky:Four killed in Gaza over the weekend. You put up a six. It's horrifying footage. It's not graphic, though it is a gut punch. This is a checkpoint west of Ramallah where a family is trying to take their four-month to a waiting ambulance on the other side of the checkpoint. And the Israeli soldiers just won't let the family through. And so the ambulance just sits there on the other side of the checkpoint helplessly. And the four-month-old baby died waiting. That was Ahmed Zaid from Der Amar. Like, just as a parent, like, it's just incomprehensible to be in a situation like that. And for these, you know, we've all encountered bureaucrats who are just like immune to the urgency of a situation that we're in.
15:49Usually it's not a four-month-old that needs emergency treatment and there's an ambulance on the other side of the checkpoint. And then we have A9, another like absolutely shocking video that I had to watch several times to figure out what you just saw.
16:02Emily Jashinsky:Yeah. An Israeli soldier throw a stun gun inside a car. Stuff the door closed. With people in it and close the door. An American, people get mad when I say this, but an American soldier who did that, it would be an absolute scandal. Protests in the street, court martial, investigations. And anybody watching this program knows how I feel about the American military. I am not its biggest champion or defender, but think about that. In comparison, they make the American military look like the most moral army in the world. to, and it's one thing, oh, if it's just a bad apple and they violated their training, it turns out it's not, the training with a stun grenade is not to throw it into an occupied car and close the door on the occupants.
16:51What's shocking is we all know there will be no consequences for that person. And there will be some brave people, half a dozen who will go out in protest, they'll get beaten. Those are heroic Israelis who will do that. But you're talking about like a half a dozen dozen people. There will not be mass protests and there will not be political backlash. There won't be a reckoning. How did we get to a place where we're okay with a four-month-old baby dying at a checkpoint and a soldier throwing a stun grenade into a car with civilians in it and then closing the door on it. Like, how do we get there?
17:33Now, what's going on in the Israeli political system, which we've been teasing here, is quite incredible.
17:40Emily Jashinsky:Yes, yes. Basically, Netanyahu has been trying to consolidate control of the media, which is going on all over the world. This is what you're seeing in countries. The Supreme Court, the high court in Israel, pushed back against him. This blew up over the weekend. Yeah, and said, you can't do that. This is illegal. You set up this fake second commission that's regulating the media. That's not the proper one. This is the official proper regulator. And we're reviewing this deal where you're trying to concentrate wealth. Then Yahoo announced over the weekend, that is an illegal order. We're not going to follow it.
18:17Emily Jashinsky:Look at that Times of Israel headline. In first, government vows to disobey high court ruling, setting up constitutional crisis. Not even Trump has done this. Trump has disobeyed some lower court rulings or kind of ignored them, not completely disobeyed them explicitly, and then appeals to the higher court. Trump has never yet, and hopefully he won't, disobeyed a Supreme Court ruling. Because once you do that, then all the guardrails are off, because then you're just an unchecked authoritarian government. Right. And you can see from this Haritz headline, this is Herzog called it a red line and joined other officials in pushing back against government decision to defy high court order.
19:01Emily Jashinsky:And again, we have a guest who's going to break some of these internal political dynamics down for us. But this the stakes for Netanyahu were already high. And certainly now, Ryan, they're even higher. Yes, indeed. Yes, they sure are. So let's bring in Noga Tarnopolsky back to breaking points to discuss. All right, so joining us now is Noga Tarnopolsky, Israeli journalist joining us from Jerusalem. A lot of J's there. Noga, thanks so much for being here. Thank you for inviting me. Shout out to Noga's cat, who just walked into the shot as well. We love cats on Breaking Points, so that's always fun.
19:39That cat is Melisande, who's named for the 12th century queen of Jerusalem, the only queen in Jerusalem ever had. It's a powerful cat. There we go. And Noga just launched the Substack BB and Beyond. BB already giving her a lot of news for this. So tell us about this coup slash constitutional crisis. Why are some people calling it a coup? And what is the constitutional crisis? Lay out for people who are kind of new to this question. Yeah. Okay, I'll do my best. Although I just want to start out by saying that the most serious people I know who are addressing this, for example, professor of constitutional law at Hebrew University called Mota Keremnitzer and the attorney general of Israel, Gali Baharav Miara, they're calling this an insurrection.
20:31And I'm saying that because I do think that in useful ways it can be compared to January 6th in that it's an effort to illegally control some of the power of the state. But now I'll take a step back. There are two facets to what has happened here in the last 24 hours. On the one hand, what we had is a Supreme Court ruling about a government decision, basically removing the media regulator and allowing the government to control almost all of the media space. Very much on the Hungarian model of how Viktor Orban basically eliminated the free media in Hungary and took over all of the organs of the media.
21:22That was a decision passed by this government. And after months of deliberations, yesterday, the Supreme Court ruled that the government can't do that and that the regulator must continue operating. So in a narrow way, what the government has said is, no, we're not going to adhere to that ruling. We're going to take control of this regulator and we're going to control the media in these months leading up to an election. But the reason people are calling it a coup d 'etat isn't the specifics of that law. It's that the government has decided that the Supreme Court is no longer the law of the land.
22:00Supreme Court rulings have no bearings. And so what that means, certainly in the eyes of the attorney general of the state, that in Israel is a civil servant. In the eyes of former prime minister Yair Lapid, who's head of the opposition, he said that as of yesterday, this is a criminal government, a rogue government. The reason people are reacting that way is the expectation that the government is going to use this as a precedent and no longer recognize the rule of law going forward now towards the elections.
Read the full transcript
22:30Emily Jashinsky:Yeah, and that's what I was going to ask. I mean, Israel, lest we forget, is a fairly young country. And so what precedent, if any, is there for this? I mean, how significant politically and constitutionally is what's happening right now? This is an earthquake. The state of Israel was established in 1948. It's a 78-year-old country. This has never happened ever. Even in this most extreme Netanyahu government that made its desire basically to perpetrate a push clear very, very early on in this mandate. Now, the government basically came back into power around January 1st of 2023. On January 4th of 2023, the not the attorney general, the justice minister of Israel, a Netanyahu man called Yerif Levin, announced that he was going to hold a press conference.
23:27And he basically stood behind a lectern and he said he was, I'm quoting now, launching the first phase in a reform of the administration of the state. Now, that is the announcement of a coup d 'etat. We're changing the way the state is run. We're changing the institutional structure of the state. For reasons that are really beyond me, the media shorthand for what the government did that day was judicial reform. But this was not a judicial reform, never presented as a judicial form. The government became very extreme also in terms of its efforts to illegally hold on to power really from the start.
24:06Still, until yesterday, the government, no government in the history of the state of Israel has ever said in an official statement, we're not adhering to the Supreme Court ruling. I want to get into some of the broader implications of this, but on a specific case, we earlier in the program talked about Dr. Hossam Abu Safiyah, who is in the news because telling his lawyer, this is the end, they're trying to kill me. in the high court has pushed the Israeli government for some answers on his situation. What does this ignoring of court orders, how does it play into the ability of the courts to get information about Dr.
24:56Abu Safiyah's case or the case of any Palestinian who's in administrative detention or otherwise in detention? I was going to say, anyone, you know, that there are protests, Jewish protesters against this government who've been held in administrative detention for more than four months. So, again, on many levels, the Netanyahu government is a rogue government. And that sort of should be framing, I think, our understanding of what's happening. The government is not yet in breach of a court order regarding Dr. Hossam Abu Safiyah. The government, this was another decision, but it was an appeals decision.
25:34So it wasn't a ruling by the Supreme Court. It was simply an order by the court yesterday accepting a petition by an Israeli NGO called Physicians for Human Rights, ordering the government by tomorrow to tell the court what is his health condition, why is it so bad, and to explain what his treatment is. But I do want to widen the lens a little bit because Dr. Hussama Abusafia, who is a well-known doctor and headed Gaza's Kamal Redwan Hospital, he was detained in November 2024. No charges have been brought against him. And there's been no explanation by the army of why he's being held, despite, you know, occasional repetitive kind of media requests.
26:28He appeared to be in perfectly good health when he was detained. And I mentioned all this because I did make some inquiries yesterday. I thought we were entering to war crime territory. It's not clear that we are because administrative detention during wartime isn't per se illegal. However, Israel clearly has a duty of care towards him. There are a lot of rumors going around about what has made him so unwell. But I doubt we're going to hear anything from the army before tomorrow, the deadline given by the court. And until then, what we have to face is a situation in which Netanyahu gave extraordinary powers to two people who are on the most extreme fringes of society.
27:14So the minister in charge of national security, which means police and the prison service, is a guy convicted 13 times of hate crimes and terror, Itamar Ben-Gvir. And a guy who is officially the minister of finance of Israel, secretary of the treasury of Israel, was also given like, you know, a second job as a sort of secret deputy defense minister in charge of the occupied territories of the West Bank. Dr. Kusama Abusafia is being held in a prison in the West Bank, in Ophel Prison. So I'm very concerned, not only because I trust this NGO and I trust his lawyer, I'm very concerned because the two men who may be exerting power in order basically to cause extreme suffering for Dr.
28:09Abusafia, you know, these are the guys who have the power to do it. even though it's not a straight line. Right, right.
28:17Emily Jashinsky:Can you break down the political dynamics of the upcoming election as well? Like how have Netanyahu's opponents reacted to this? How has Likud reacted to this? What's it looked like in the last several days? So it's just really the last two days, because this happened yesterday and today. But it's a really interesting question. So the opposition actually came out pretty good, I would say. as i think i mentioned to the former prime minister uh lapid said that as of yesterday this is an illegal government a criminal government um then the uh another former prime minister who was served with lapid naftali bennett said that this is bringing israel to anarchy um the attorney general who i'm as i mentioned to is a civil servant but she came out with a very, very powerful statement, basically saying, this is an assault on the rule of law.
29:15That is the first person from Israeli officialdom saying this is an insurrection. A member of the Labour Party in the Knesset, a congressperson in Israel, Naam al-Azimi, has already called for Netanyahu to be arrested for sedition and for endangering national security. This is not as crazy as it sounds, because under Israeli law, the Shinbek, the Internal Security Service, is statutorily charged with protecting the democratic institutions of the state. Now, Netanyahu just a few months ago, I think presaging the current crisis, installed in a very dodgy maneuver, installed a kind of messianic non -democrat, lowercase d, democrat, as head of the Shin Bet.
30:09So we have not heard from the Shin Bet, but inciting to thwart the course of law is a crime in Israel. So Netanyahu and his government are getting themselves into deeper and deeper trouble with every step. The Likud has begun showing some cracks, and this really is very interesting. so the minister of communications the guy behind this particular kind of media takeover law came out fighting and he basically was the one who put out the official statement on behalf of the cabinet saying you know we've decided towards the supreme court screw you to put it bluntly but then there have been two prominent members of netaniel's inner circle who have tried to backtrack.
31:01And so one is the cabinet secretary, not a minister of the cabinet secretary, put out a very confused, bizarre statement last night, basically saying, no, we didn't say we won't adhere to Supreme Court ruling. We said we'll use all legal tools in our hands to go against the Supreme Court ruling. They have no legal tools because this is a Supreme Court ruling. But you got the sense that there were probably some difficult discussions being held. And I had the sense yesterday i don't have proof of this but i have a lot of experience with these people i did have the sense last night that there might be some netanyahu ministers saying to themselves i don't want to go to jail for this guy and also saying to themselves this is going to kill us in the elections and and since last night there have been leaks today of ministers being pretty fearful.
31:55It's important to underscore that while Netanyahu wants to take control of the media and while Netanyahu has really put together an unbelievably dastardly avalanche of laws that he wants to try and get through the Knesset in the next 10 days, basically, before this Knesset session is automatically brought to an end And because we will be 90 days before the legal deadline for elections, this government will automatically become an acting government and its powers and Netanyahu's powers will be significantly curtailed, again, under law, assuming the government adheres to the law. they're trying to pass any number um you know of laws and it's it's actually today i heard a very interesting interpretation of this situation um from the leader of the opposition yair lapid who said he thinks that bb netanyahu is trying to get an invite to the white house as early as next week Right.
33:01Because he doesn't want it. Yeah. He said so on Fox News yesterday. Lapid's interpretation is that Netanyahu doesn't want to be in Israel for these Knesset votes because his own voters, they hate this legislation. they're the ones who you know obey the law and want to live in a state of law they're right wing some of them still worship him but they don't want any of these are laws that you know transfer millions and millions of dollars to ultra orthodox to draft dodgers and so lapid's theory of what's happening is that netzanyol wants to pass all these laws so that his coalition partners are happy and he can stay in power, but he knows his voters hate it.
33:46So he wants to come back from DC and say, well, so, you know, I didn't vote for them. Well, to that, to that point, I wanted to get your, uh, you're helping getting some context on an interesting exchange on, uh, Israeli television. Let's, uh, with the Likud minister can put up, um, A10 here. Uh, and you can tell me if they, if they have the, uh, translation, right. Um, but he's saying, so, so you mean Ideologically, you agree with Jewish power, which is the Ben-Gavir party. And the minister says there aren't many differences between Jewish power, Ben-Gavir's party, and Likud. Let's just underscore that.
34:27Let's just make sure we're clear about that. Who is she? And what should we be drawing from the fact that a minister in the government is saying that actually Ben Gavir's party and the Likud are basically the same thing. And also, let's pause for a second. If there was a party in the U.S. called White Power that was as dominant as Ben Gavir's is, there would be no mystery as to where they stood on the kind of political spectrum. But so what should we draw? What is she saying? What should we draw from her claim that actually Likud and Jewish power are basically the same party at this point? Yes, she said they're ideologically indistinguishable.
35:09Look, I take it very seriously. I don't take her as a person very seriously. My Golan is basically a weaker female version of Itamar Benvir, of Besalit Smotrich, of Yariv Levine, the justice minister, of Miki Zor, the culture minister who today tried to clean up this mess a little bit. And he tried to kind of make it clear. He said, we're not causing a constitutional crisis. The Supreme Court is because they made an illegal ruling, you know, this kind of mucking it all up. This is a government that in its totality is very, very extreme. May Golan is accused herself, by the way, of all kinds of crimes.
35:54She has one of these money-wasting ministries just basically intended to keep her on side. I think she's the minister for... Social equality and the advancement of the status of women. Thank you very much. Exactly what she is. My dream job. Yes, Emily's dream job. Now, notice that she just said that she, at least, or her party has no ideological differences with a party that is theocratic, anti-democratic, profoundly misogynistic. And I could continue segregationist. I want to mention somebody who I take more seriously, but and who said the same thing yesterday. And maybe you can get a clip of him, too.
36:38Amina Dov Beggin. he's an academic he's not a well-known public figure but he's the grandson of the legendary right-wing sorry no i did see this comment this is marnatham begin's grandson i believe it was but go ahead yeah it's marnatham begin's grandson i think is in his 50s and he uh has become increasingly um i would say a strident an important voice in the israeli public sphere and he says that this party led by netanyahu is not the likut it's not the party created by his grandfather remember that his grandfather i think his 70s and 80s was considered beyond the pale extremist you know it was a right-wing takeover of israel at the time and yet he was a man who believed profoundly in the institutions of the state who strengthened the judiciary who spoke repeatedly in public about the importance of democratic institutions.
37:37He wanted to be a right-wing prime minister, but he wanted to do it with authority. And so now we have his grandson, and he said yesterday, he said, this is not a constitutional crisis. He said, this is a kahanist coup d 'etat. He gave a really remarkable interview that I would urge anyone to see because he believes that he represents what is truly the right wing. And he confessed in this interview, he said that for a long time, he himself voted for Netanyahu, that, you know, he kind of considered him a normal right wing leader and that what's happening now is an insurrection. All right. Well, thanks for updating us on this.
38:22Quite a dramatic series of events. Nogatana Palski. And BB &B is the substack that she just launched, Israeli journalist. Really appreciate you being here. Time flies with you guys. Thank you. You got it.
38:37Emily Jashinsky:Massive gatherings in Tehran over the weekend for the funeral of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. And let's put some of this, let's put this New York Times headline up on the screen. They went with this headline, mourners chant revenge at funeral prayers for Iran's slain supreme leader. Just reading a little bit from the report, tens of thousands of mourners, including senior Iranian officials, packed to run on Sunday for funeral prayers for the slain supreme leader as crowds chanted calls for revenge. Conspicuously absent was his son and successor, Moshe Bakhamenei, who has not been seen in public since succeeding his father, who was killed at the onset of the war.
39:14Emily Jashinsky:And these crowds were rolling and massive. Let's go ahead and take a listen to the scene in Tehran over the weekend.
39:33Ryan Grim:So that was the infamous death to America chant.
39:40Emily Jashinsky:And Ryan, just what's your reaction off the bat? here to what we saw. I mean, this was massive, massive support, obviously, for the Supreme Leader and no Mastaba Khomeini. Also, though, a pretty clear sign of strength from the IRGC's perspective months into this operation where apparently the IRGC was decimated. Yeah, we were told that the Iranians would, just like the Iraqis, would greet us with, candies and flowers and would celebrate our assassination of Khamenei. Instead, you have one of the largest gatherings of people in the world. And after one of the largest slaughterings of Iranians in January.
40:29Right, which is probably...
40:31Emily Jashinsky:Which is why we thought they were weak. Right. And it would be easy for the Kurds to come in and people would overthrow them. This is what it looks like now. Right. And the Iranians have said that they believe at least 3 ,000, they put out the names of at least 3 ,000 people, security forces and protesters who were killed or rioters or whatever you want to, you know, also there were some armed insurgents as well. So at least 3 ,000, that is a lot of people. You see these bizarre numbers of 30 ,000 to 60 ,000, 75 ,000 floated by Trump and other people. No evidence that it's anywhere near that. Still, even 3 ,000 is a lot.
41:10And the Israelis and the Americans were convinced that the Iranian people were desperate for regime change. Maybe they wanted the Shah's son. Who knows who they wanted back in?
41:26And a big crowd does not necessarily mean 90 % support.
41:30Emily Jashinsky:No, not at all. That's not borne out by any of the point that people have been able to ascertain. I mean, that's not an easy thing to do. But I think I've heard Sir Abamari obviously make the point that it's not like the IRGC has the support of a majority of Iranians. But opposition to America has support of a majority of Iranians. Right. We have united the country in that. I've seen some people salty at the death to America chant and the death to Israel chant. But not as much saltiness as you might have seen in the past. I think people are starting to approach this with a little bit of common sense.
42:07For one thing, what people might not know, it translates to death to America. But if you heard the rhythm of it, it's just kind of a nice chant. It's not a nice chant. They use it as it has the nice rhythm to it. And it really means down with. like that would be a probably more kind of accurate cultural translation down with America, down with Israel. That aside, Trump has described this as Pearl Harbor, right? He compared it to Pearl Harbor, right? That because it was a surprise attack in the middle of negotiations. We are still deeply angry in the United States about Pearl Harbor. Pearl Harbor, they attacked the Navy in Hawaii.
42:55Emily Jashinsky:Trump had a veteran from Pearl Harbor on stage at the 4th of July. Did you see this? Oh, I missed that. It was incredible. I'm sure it was. I'm sure it was. But, you know, they attacked, they surprise attacked a military target. We thought it was dastardly because it was a sneak attack. Sneak attacks are dastardly. It was on a military target. Imagine if the Japanese had also hit a girls' school in Hawaii. and killed, you know, 150 plus students and teachers, mostly young girls, and then also killed, you know, FDR, killed the head of the military, killed the vice president, you know, killed, like how do you think we would feel at that point?
43:45Like, so the chant, I thought, and I think, people in the U.S. are actually much more kind of aware of the context this time. And so they see that chant, they're like, yeah, okay, you know what? What we did was really bad. And I get it.
44:02Emily Jashinsky:Well, there are realist consequences to war, obviously, political consequences. And being reckless in how you carry it out. Now, I do think when you see Death to America chants, even if it's translated into something that's down with. Yeah, I think most Americans look at that and say, well, we definitely don't want them to have a nuclear weapon. It's just a question of like the means to the end. And that's, I think, for a lot of people, when you look at our record of the last 20 years, I mean, look at Iraq right now. Is Saddam Hussein there? No. Is it a much friendlier country to the United States, like significantly friendlier country to the United States?
44:41Emily Jashinsky:Create a power vacuum that created ISIS. And so the idea that you were going to have a war that wasn't significant with a ground invasion and lasted for months and months that actually truly decapitated the regime, I think a lot of people were obviously skeptical of that, as they should have been skeptical of that. This is a show of solidarity for some chunk of the country, united against the United States. Not that that's particularly surprising to anybody, but if you had showed scenes of this before or as let's say after we had on february 28th if people showed you these scenes like you could fast forward and do like a time travel jump and it's like this is what iran is going to look like in july and the war by the way is going to be over this is where gas we're going to have a ceasefire yeah yeah we're going to be getting nothing like what are we doing right what are we doing and to your point about nuclear weapons and people do need to including myself need to remember this we've done some polling on this question um about iran having a nuclear weapon And the American people are very much opposed to the idea of Iran having a nuclear weapon.
45:46How much they're willing to do to see that outcome to the end is up for debate. But if you ask them, it's like 80 plus percent of people, Democrats, independents, Republicans. I'm in the minority where I'm like, I don't care. I'd rather nobody had them. But if somebody's going to have them, what do I care?
46:08Emily Jashinsky:But the other question is means to an end, right? Like, again, when the war began, it was pretty obvious. People were shocked when the Chagos Islands, like that ICBM, got close to the islands. It's like, well, if you take a look at the map of North Korea's ability, where they also say things like death to America in sentiment, they already have like worldwide. We're in their range. It's not just Europe. Like the whole world is in their range and they have nuclear weapons. So that's why it's good that he's Trump's best friend. Yeah. We're good. Yeah. Well, Trump's button is bigger. Don't forget that.
46:42That's right.
46:43Emily Jashinsky:As we learned on Twitter at one point. So, yeah, I mean, the idea that the war was going to turn transform the country. Obviously, this is just not in the way that we but not fundamentally transform like the way the country works, empower the IRGC and brought them a lot more revenue and lifted them. out of the sanctions abyss. Now, given what DropSite has reported, what did you make of the Ayatollah's son not being at the funeral? Right. So that was something that people have picked up on. The reporting was that he wanted to be there and was really pressured not to be there for what they say are security reasons.
47:28We'll talk about in a second the legitimate nature of those security concerns, it has sparked controversy inside Iran as people are jockeying for power. There's also some question about how badly he was injured in the strike that killed Khamenei, Khamenei's 14-year-old grandson, his wife, a lot of Khamenei's family, as well as senior leaders. the word that keeps coming out is that he was significantly wounded. And so perhaps they don't want to show how badly he was wounded. But at the same time, and we can put up B3 here, the U.S. and Israel are maniacs. They cannot be trusted to not just kill anybody the first opportunity they get.
48:25But so Trump told Axios here that they agreed to, quote, take a week off and that, quote, neither side will shoot at the other in order to allow time for the morning. Trump also told Axios that he was shocked at the outpouring of support for the man he assassinated. And he he ruminated at one point, quote, maybe it's fake tears. so there's hundreds of thousands of people coming out to fake cry just to get one over on Trump I guess but then he then Trump added they're all there one shot and we can take them all out which is in brackets but that's what he means one shot they could take them all out but we are not going to do that because then we would have nobody to negotiate with so you can see even in that moment Trump just kind of salivating at the opportunity of more killing, like more.
49:24Oh, now the new people that came in, I could kill them all. He's there's something captivating to him about the idea of just being able to kill people with impunity. But the thing holding him back, as he says, is, well, then who would we negotiate with?
49:39Emily Jashinsky:Well, let's put B5 on the screen. Skip ahead here. This This is a report from NBC News headline. U.S. was concerned Israel might try to kill Iran negotiators, according to sources. U.S. officials were concerned that Israel might try to assassinate Iran's negotiators during recent ceasefire talks. And Tehran was worried about that, about the possible threat, according to a U.S. official and an Iranian official with knowledge of the matter, Ryan. So that got leaked from us to the press. Yes, this was crazy. So you remember the Islamabad talks where Arakshian Ghalibov and J.D. Vance all were there for like 24 hours.
50:17And then Vance kind of abruptly was like, we can't make any progress. These guys aren't serious and I'm going home. So he goes home. The Pakistanis then escort the Iranian delegation to the border. And as they're getting close to the border, the U.S. picks up that Israel has scrambled fighter jets in Iranian territory headed towards or headed towards Iranian territory with the intent of shooting a Rajshin Golibov's plane down. And the U.S. itself then scrambles and tells, they say, allies, you know, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, you know, they're working the phones. and the U.S. dimes out Israel and says, tell the Iranians that Netanyahu is trying to kill them.
51:05And so their plane makes an emergency landing just over the border inside Iran and they get in cars and drive like the eight hours to Tehran, which must have been just an insane drive. Can you imagine being in those cars? You're like going through these like rugged winding mountain passes you're like maybe what if we turn the headlights off driver's like yeah yeah then we're gonna plunge off this mountain yeah i think we need the headlights yeah but then you're like yeah but if i don't want to you don't want to spook the drivers you don't exactly want to tell them why i like that you've gamed this out and everybody and you know phones off like everybody phones in the faraday bag yeah it's turn turn your satellite devices off.
51:54So maybe if you have your phones off, they wouldn't know which caravan to hit. Then they're just bombing like random Iranian villagers everywhere from... But yeah, so this is our ally. So if there's any question about how hostile they are to a ceasefire and a peace deal, let that disabuse any confusion.
52:21Emily Jashinsky:And on the topic, actually, of the, what's the right way to put it, efficacy of the military action, let's go to B4. So we've also been told that Hamas is totally decimated. This war was going to eradicate Hamas. Well, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, as you all reported here at DropSite, met with Hamas's Political Leadership Council chairman at the Sunday delegation in Tehran during the funeral ceremonies. So, Ryan, that's also, again, it's a similar parallel. Now, Hamas has been much more, what's the best way to put it, has been much more damaged by the post-October 7th war, of course, than the IRGC.
53:10Emily Jashinsky:But here they are living to negotiate and living to talk to the Iranians. Yeah, right. And Israel continues to violate the ceasefire in Gaza and Hamas, to your point, has not really been has not been hitting back. And Iran has also not really made demands about Gaza part of its negotiating strategy. Which we haven't really covered, but that is interesting. Yeah, there's a parallel track that has a UN mandate. It is really interesting that the Iranians have genuine respect for the UN and take those processes seriously. And the fact that the Board of Peace got this UN blessing and has created a negotiation track actually means something.
54:02It's funny because we've, here in the U.S., we're told that they're this like rogue state and a bunch of terrorists. We are the ones that really have the most amount of hostility to the U.N. and to international law. But in practice, like, you know, that's ongoing. Now they're trying to be as supportive as they can. And I know a lot of supporters of Palestine have been frustrated that Gaza has not been more central to the ceasefire negotiations, whereas Lebanon has.
54:35Emily Jashinsky:Well, and that was a huge, obviously, point of disagreement with the Abraham Accords, right, was that the Palestinian cause was being squeezed out. Yeah, that was the whole idea behind the Abraham Accords was like, we can actually, we don't have to solve this. We'll just move forward without it, without solving it. Right, right. OK, so also looking at the Strait of Hormuz, markets about to open here as we are recording this. But let's put the next element up on the screen. It does look like, as Dropsite reported here, according to Citibank, crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to about 7 million barrels per day.
55:14Emily Jashinsky:That is up from near zero levels, as you guys put it, during the height of the conflict. That's according to city analysts who were cited by the Financial Times. But before the war, the strait carried 20 to 21 million BPD of oil. That is including 15 million of crude and 5 million of the refined petroleum products. That 7 million estimate, as Dropside put it, likely understates actual traffic because many commercial tankers have switched off. And we can go ahead then put B7 up on the screen to report from CNBC that a cargo vessel in the Red Sea reported coming under attack, according to the UK's Maritime Trade Operations Center.
55:54Emily Jashinsky:So shipping across the region, I was going to say unsteady right now. Maybe that's a good way to put it. But moving upward. And as Citibank points out, 7 million is what they counted. And that doesn't count the people that turned off their transponders. So if you were carrying 20 to 21 million barrels per day before the war and you've got 7 million that you can see, if you have 7 million that you can't see, at least you're getting back up to somewhere between half and two thirds of the pre-war shipment. And because we are trying to fill up our strategic reserve, our inventories, and fuel our global economy at the same time, you'd rather have more coming out than less relative to pre-war because we're so far behind.
56:48But at least this is like the global economic ivy bag is just getting a drip at least.
56:55Emily Jashinsky:What do you make of this Red Sea report given the chaos in Yemen over the last several days as well? That remains this giant wild card and remains Iran's additional leverage that was not played during the war, which is the Saudis were able to move a lot by the pipeline over to the Red Sea. And a lot of global shipping comes through the Red Sea. and it does show the value of of diplomacy to the united states if you remember the u.s cut a deal with the houthis that said if you stop attacking us our american ships we will stop attacking you you can still attack israel it's not our problem that was a very pragmatic type of deal and the houthis like it yeah and they they stuck with it they made threats that they were going to join the Iranians.
57:51And they would tell Israel, if you do X, Y, Z, we will join as trying to draw some red lines. But they never fully entered. And it's because they had this agreement with the United States.
58:01Emily Jashinsky:And just an update on what happened in Yemen over the weekend. I'm reading from an Al Jazeera headline just from yesterday. Houthi rebels kill 16 Yemeni government troops in fiercest clashes in years. that took place in Western Yemen's, their governorate is how it's put. But they had a minister of state and a cabinet member aligned with their government saying that the soldiers died in the fighting and violence, according to Al Jazeera, is now escalating. So the politics of that, like Ryan put it, that's an insane wild card in the region right now. It could also, and we'll see how this unfolds, further explain why the Houthis kind of stayed out of the conflict because perhaps they felt—so Saudi Arabia was also cutting deals with everybody.
58:51Okay, yes. And so Saudi Arabia, several years ago, cut a deal with the Houthis. They were like, look, we're sorry. Like, this was a mistake. Please stop attacking our refineries. We will stop backing this fake government that's in Riyadh, literally in a hotel. we're out of this war. And the UAE kept going, because that's what they do. And so it is likely that the Saudis leaned also on the Houthis to say, please stay out of this war. Don't attack us during this.
59:22Emily Jashinsky:That's what I was going to ask. Don't do the Red Sea. And with another agreement that the Houthis said, okay, when this dies down, we're sweeping west and we're taking more territory. And so that may be what you're seeing happen now with the Saudis saying, okay, look, fine. Like we're, we wish we hadn't gotten involved in this. It was a little impulsive on our part. And we're, this is between y 'all. And Saudis are so mad at the Emiratis that any damage that the Houthis do to the Emiratis, Saudis are gleeful for because they're fighting each other over in Sudan too. That's a lot of uncertainty amidst these efforts to have deals in both regions.
1:00:06Luckily, we have the greatest dealmaker in the history of deals. Thank goodness.
1:00:10Emily Jashinsky:He's here and he is focused like a laser on communism. So let's talk about that, Ryan.
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Ryan and Emily discuss Netanyahu war with Israeli courts, Iran mourns Ayatollah.
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