8/14/25: Trump Threatens Putin Before Summit, Will Dems Fumble 2026

24:00And, you know, the Russians have, nobody knows exactly how many troops have been killed, but it's a lot, hundreds of thousands probably. You know, the Russians will claim otherwise. There doesn't seem to be very much. There just doesn't seem to be a whole lot of dissent. They somehow seem to have solved that problem. I guess the population just supports it, unlike they did in Afghanistan. I really have no other explanation. I also read that they're paying very generous salaries to a lot of the draftees or a lot of the people who will come in from the caucuses or these other regions much more than they could ever earn otherwise.

24:31And so even the widowers and the families are like, well, it sucks to lose your husband, but I'm getting a pension for the rest of my life. I don't know how they did it. I'm not an expert or anything, but I thought that this could be an Afghanistan-type situation for them. It doesn't appear to be. People, they seem willing as a polity to accept hundreds of thousands, if not millions of casualties in Ukraine. There has been zero actual internal dissent since 2022 and a lot of the draft. In fact, it may have worked out for them because the Western-style elites, they all just left Russia. And so everybody who's left is like, yeah, we're on board.

25:03We're on the train. Let's go. Yeah. They have a large, you know, relatively poor rural population that is committed, that believes in the war goals. Yes. Like believes in the aims and, you know, for whom those salaries are quite appealing. And so I, you know, I don't know, but that's my guess as to why they've been able to sustain this high rate of casualty without having any notable significant societal backlash as far as we can tell, you know, as outsiders looking in. And so, you know, with regard to the ongoing war tactics, there was actually a great quote in that piece. One of them said, you know, big Soviet army beats little Soviet army, basically saying like, yeah, they use these same terrible tactics of just throwing men into a meat grinder and never wanting to retreat even when it makes sense, letting their troops get encircled and slaughtered.

25:52But they have a lot more people than we do. So in the end, how do you think that that is ultimately going to work out? You know, there was also some quotes in here from a guy who's 50 years old, wanted to go fight, signed up. He was like, you know, he'd never handled a weapon before, had zero training, never been in the military before, but wanted to serve. And thought that he could go in and get some training and go do something that wasn't really on the front line. I mean, again, he's 50 years old. He's never been in warfare before. He's never fired a weapon before. And they didn't even give him a gun before they sent him to the front lines.

26:25And he, you know, he left. He was he was like, I'm not doing that. That's the most Soviet thing I've ever heard. I'm not doing this. And apparently there they have a lot of deserters because of exactly this. They're like, you didn't give me any training. You're sending me to the front lines. The guy who's in charge here is just willing to let us get encircled and slaughtered like we're not doing it. And so, you know, you also have that dynamic unfolding on the ground here, too. But, you know, your point about us having all the cards with regard to Ukraine is a really important one. really important.

26:55You know, the party that we really have the most ability to pressure is the Ukrainians. They are very dependent on us. That's just the reality. And so, you know, pressure needs to be put on them. And it needs to be done in order to secure a deal that, yes, they're going to be unhappy with, right? It's not like in order to bring this war to a close now, it would require territorial concessions. There's just no doubt about that. Certainly Crimea, you know, eastern Ukraine. And what needs to happen is there needs to be some ability to create face saving for Zelensky. Like if you're interested in actually bringing this thing to a close, you put pressure behind the scenes, you try to resolve the underlying issues that led Russia to, you know, create to launch this illegal invasion to begin with.

27:38And you try to create some sort of face saving pretext for Zelensky so that he has because his ego is massive, clearly, and he's backed himself sort of into a rhetorical corner so that he has some sort of an out. And it just seems from the beginning, the complete opposite policy has been pursued. You know, the pressure has been on the Russian side. Zelensky gets publicly humiliated. That actually doesn't help you in terms of trying to get him to back off of his egoistic position, which you should be doing is pumping him up in public and then putting the pressure on behind the scenes to force an outcome that, again, is like not ideal, and it's going to be deeply painful, but increasingly the Ukrainian population is actually open to.

28:18Yeah, I think, look, all well said. The summit, you know, the initial, by the way, as you know, I loved the initial Oval Office meeting. I thought it was great. I was like, he needs to be put into his place. And finally, we can break, you know, in terms of our so-called special relationship. We could force him to the table. But since then, it's like I said, Trump, total about face. And this is not an advisor's thing. I really believe that he seemed to think that he could just use his relationship with Putin to bring the conflict to an end. And he did not understand the fundamentals behind Putin.

28:52The thing is about Putin is he's crazy, but he has very rational objectives from within his worldview. If you look at it, He disregards, which is insane, the existence of all of these outs, like these breakaway republics. He thinks the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk is like one of the greatest disasters to ever befall the history of Russia and that the tragedy was the fall of the Soviet Union from the demise of a great power and that they've been bullied by the West. Like I said, he is a czar through and through in his security, defense, or depth vision. Well, for him, if you look at him in that view, personality has nothing to do with it.

29:34Yes, he will use you as a personality to get relations or any of that. But he only cares about one thing. He invaded Ukraine for a reason. And he will continue along the same reason path. They've committed their entire country towards this end. They will not simply give up because of a nice phone call. Sanctions don't matter anymore. None of this stuff. It's all about territory. And if and with the current side, I mean, even on the Ukrainian side and the Europeans, they're like, we will never recognize diplomatically any of this territory. Maybe we can live with it, but we will never diplomatically recognize it.

30:09I'm like, I just don't see a scenario where any of this stuff is going to fly. Right. Or where there's no how can you normalize relations or any of that in the future? I guess the Korean model, some of these technically Korea's state of war with the treaty and all of that, it is possible, but it's very difficult to see with the emotions and the way things are right now. And if I tie it back to Israel, something I love that you said in one of our last shows, you're like, Israel exists. It's not about right to exist. We have to deal where we are today. That's it. We just have to look. And it's not just.

30:41It's not nice. But that's geopolitics. There's no rights to territory. There's simply the ability basically to take it or not. In the Israel context, it's kind of flipped because we're the ones enabling the Russia of that region. And then out two sides of our mouth, we're speaking differently. And I get that it sucks to be Ukrainian. We've done more to blow up that international law consensus of like territorial integrity and human rights than any other country on the planet. Yeah, again, it's like the country that invaded Iraq based on the coalition of the willing is going to go around telling people about territorial integrity.

31:17What are we doing here? The country that toppled Libya and turned it into a failed state, Syria, look at where it is right now, led by literally al-Qaeda. It's like one of these where this commitment to democratic norms or any of that stuff, it has never been U.S. policy. And in fact, I think that by holding that up and continuing to act the way that we've done, it's exactly why we are where we are with Russia, with Ukraine, with so many of these other different conflicts. And yeah, it just really holds us back. So anyway, that's the table set. We'll see what the hell happens. It could all go otherwise.

31:52I remember Helsinki where it was totally different. So it could be very pro-Putin. I could be wrong. I don't know. Absolutely possible that we're eating crow by Monday and we would be happy to do it. Programming note. We are going to forego the Friday show in order for Sagar and Ryan actually are going to cover the results of the summit on Saturday morning. So we're going to have a Saturday show instead of a Friday show. So everybody look for that. That's right. Because the powers that be decided that Alaska is five hours behind. And so by the time we even get all the news and all that, it probably won't be.

32:27It could be midnight or something like that if it all runs late. Which, by the way, having covered some of these diplomatic summits, they always go way longer than they're supposed to. The meetings are scheduled 20 minutes. They'll last an hour and 50 minutes. The press conferences. Well, then you have to wait to get both sides of what happens. Yes, the instant readouts. They're going to hold a just joint press conference, which that's going to be kind of fun, actually. That's one of my favorite traditions from the Washington press corps. is it's called a two and two, where the American press corps, when you get called on by your president, you actually have the opportunity to ask Putin a question.

33:01And so whoever gets that, please do your homework. Don't ask some dumb ass question. Actually ask something which is useful for both for the Russians and for ourselves as well. So, you know, don't don't try and make yourself into a hero looking at you, Jim Acosta or any of these other people. Every small business starts with a dream and the courage to chase it. But even the strongest dreams need protection. That's why the Hartford has been a trusted partner for more than 1 million small business owners across America. From retail shops to financial professionals, the Hartford understands that every business is unique.

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34:23Rasmussen University. Find your seat and start now at rasmussen.edu. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Bahamar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, Over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues, John Batiste's all-new jazz club, the Caribbean's most luxurious casino, and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family. Like our 15-acre tropical water park, wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course, and so much more. Visit Bahamar.com today. So we haven't done a lot on polling and where we are as we head into.

35:05I mean, I know we still have a good bit of time before the midterms, but trust me, these things are already taking shape, already heating up. So we wanted to spend a little bit of time on the horse race and taking a look at where things stand as best we can tell as of today. Harrington did a breakdown specifically on the issue of inflation and how Trump has really fallen off a cliff on the issue that voters continue to say is their number one concern. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that. Look, voters on Trump and inflation. He won the 2024 election because he was more entrusted on inflation than Kamala Harris was, led by a margin of nine points.

35:39Look at where his net approval stands today, though, on inflation. My goodness gracious, on the issue that got him elected, he led by nine points on it last year, and now he's 25 points underwater. As I said, this is a complete and total disaster for the president of the United States. Trust which party more on inflation. You go back to the 2022 midterms, look at this. Republicans led by 13 points on which party was more trust on inflation. Look at where we are now. Nearly a 15-point shift in the Democrats' direction. It's within the margin of error, but the Democrats up by a point. This just looks totally different from where we were back in 2022 when, of course, Republicans took back the House.

36:14That's what Democrats are trying to do this time around. What is the top issue for you right now? It's a runaway. It's inflation. It's 34 percent compared to the economy, which is basically very similar at 16 percent, Medicare and Social Security at 14 percent. But the bottom line is voters in poll after poll after poll say that Donald Trump has taken his eye off the ball, off the big issue of the day, which is inflation. And that is why Donald Trump is way underwater on this issue. And it's why Democrats have caught up to Republicans on the all important issue of inflation. And Sagar, in some ways, I think that last piece about which issues are most important to people is maybe the most devastating for Republicans.

36:52Because, as Harry Enten points out, Trump is now very unpopular on any economic issue. But inflation, you know, certainly. So inflation is the number one issue. Economy in general is the number two issue. I don't think just like firing the BLS person and not putting out jobs report is really going to fix that for him. And then number three is Medicare and Social Security. Well, what do you think that's about? Yeah, that's about the big, beautiful bill. That's why people are concerned about Medicare. And I do feel like the big, beautiful bill is it like I don't we probably need to talk about it more because I think for average people, it's factoring into their perception of this presidency much more than it's sort of given credit for.

37:32Because just think about the numbers. You have millions of people who now have to be concerned about whether or not they're going to have health care going forward. And you pair that with the fact that the way that's being financed is a giant tax cut predominantly for the rich. And it is an utter political disaster. Yeah, especially on the Medicaid front, right, where you're going to see some impact. And, I mean, by the way, part of the problem with the messaging or whatever around this is that, you know, for a lot of people, they didn't necessarily read Medicaid. They thought maybe it said Medicare.

37:59Well, there are changes to Medicare as well. But the bigger changes are certainly Medicaid. Particular Medicaid, SNAP, any of those types of programs. By the way, just as you and I were talking, there is a new report out that shows that the core producer price, the PPI inflation, came in at 3.7 % versus 2.9%. And the stock futures are diving, literally, just as you and I are talking right now. The wholesale price rose by 0.9 % in July, which is much, much more than expected. quote, the producer price index, which features final demand goods and services, jumped 0.9 compared to the Dow Jones estimate of just 0.2%.

38:35That's excluding food and energy prices. So that's particularly wholesale goods, which is going to show up at the grocery store. I know 0.9 doesn't sound like a lot, but it's much more about the impact of the overall rise in inflation. It's almost three times higher. It's as high as it's been since April of 2021 in terms of the jump. So that is one where it could be a precursor to higher inflation. Just again, though, that's going to be something that if the economists, the stock market, all these people are worried about, that could be something that's showing up for you. Combine it with the Social Security, the Medicare, any of this stuff where, again, look, I mean, Social Security didn't get touched.

39:09But the Medicaid stuff, and in particular, the tax cut, because again, the thing about the tax cut that everybody doesn't remember is that that's when the Trump presidency in 2017 went off the rails. The first six months of the first Trump administration was an outright battle inside between like Paul Ryan and Jared Kushner and Steve Bannon. Remember, Steve Bannon had his whiteboard for all the things that they wanted to do. And there was even a theory about the border wall. There was this floated tax called the border adjustment tax, which, by the way, would have been a great tax, which went after remittances and trade.

39:42It was supposed to be an initial kind of trade imbalance way to correct with Mexico, and that would have financed immigration enforcement. And the entire GOP was like, yeah, we're not doing that. They're like, we're cutting taxes for rich people, and that's it, right? And so by the time that came out with the corporate tax, the reduced taxes, not only for corporations but for the highest income brackets, that is really where Trump sank to his lowest ever level of support. It makes total sense to me. It's very similar to Obamacare. If you think back to the coverage of the 2010 election, the anger that was bubbling up in the town halls was over Obamacare.

40:19But the country, national media, had kind of moved on from there. By that point, they were talking about various different things, but that is what slammed them at the ballot box. So it's very possible that inflation, and in particular, the capriciousness around trade policy. What I have found is that Americans don't want to tune into the news on the economy. They want it to just run. And so when they have to check every day, not only their portfolio or businesses have to pause deals and unpause, have to pause hiring, and then maybe reduce salary. Or if you have to think about policy when it impacts their business, that's when people get upset.

40:52They don't want it to. They only want to pay attention whenever it's good. But when it's bad, that's not what they want. And by and large, that's mostly where things are right now. Well, and you pointed out, too, there are certain key items where you can really see that price hike directly as a result of tariffs. In fact, I sent this this morning, Rochon is doing something smart. He's introducing legislation to roll back specifically the tariffs on coffee. Because we hit Brazil so hard because we're mad at them over their court decisions with regard to Bolsonaro, tomorrow that is causing coffee prices to spike dramatically it also is causing beef prices to strike to spike dramatically good probably for american cattle ranchers but if you're trying to include steak in your diet here in the u.s you know it's going to become much more costly so in any case i thought that was a clever uh tactical move from him and well the coffee to put pressure on yeah look it's something i think the vast majority of americans drink coffee every single day if not i mean it's probably like 70 80 i need to check the data but the point is actually is that if you look at the way it will really impact you is if you buy it at a retail chain like Starbucks or anything.

41:54By the way, Starbucks or anything. Has anyone been recently? I never go to Starbucks. I went, it's like$5. I was like, what the hell is going on here? Yeah, exactly. I was like, whoa. I mostly brew almost entirely all my own coffee. I'm pretty much immune from whatever the retail market or anything. But every once in a while, you'll just check and you're like, what the hell is going on here? I mean, even if you're not going to Starbucks, how many blue caller guys are going out, you know, early morning, they're stopping at 7-Eleven, getting their cup of coffee as they're on the road headed to their job.

42:22I mean, this is very common, you know, experience, cross-class experience. And those would be the people who will be most sensitive to those price increases. And so even if it's not five bucks at Starbucks, you're still going to notice that price increase. Absolutely. Let's go and get to this next slide that shows you where the generic ballot is. So this is just if you ask people, would you vote for the, you know, whoever the Democrat is or whoever the Republican is in your congressional district without specific names attached, who comes out on top. And you can see, listen, let's all take the polls with a grain of salt at this point in our lives, at this point in American history.

42:58However, you have a very consistent trend here in favor of Democrats. The overall RCP average has them up 3.5 percent on the generic ballot. You've had one poll from Yahoo News. Actually, this Atlas Intel one is the highest one up on the board of plus eight for Democrats. More common is more in the two, three, four type of range. But, you know, a significant edge, especially when you consider that Republicans have a very narrow edge in the House. Now, what is going to happen with all this redrawing of the maps in Texas and California and New York and whatever's going on there? I don't know. Maybe Republicans.

43:35But I mean, I think the very fact that they're pulling the fire alarm to potentially do a new census to redraw these maps, et cetera, shows you they don't feel real great about their position going into the midterms either. Now, on the other side, on the flip side, let's put this next piece up on the screen. I think this is what Republicans are kind of comforting themselves with. The Democratic Party is wildly unpopular. Net favorability plunges to near three decade low, according to polls. And to me, Sagar, I think this reflects a lot of things. I mean, there's just like a lot of mistrust of the Democratic Party overall.

44:14But the reason it's reached this historic level of unpopularity, and this is reflected in the data, is because there are a lot of Democrats that are disgusted with the Democratic Party. And I do think Israel is a big part of that because it's just such a moral atrocity. There's such massive divergence in, you know, the numbers are starker than maybe any other issue I've seen, the distance between Democratic leadership and where the base is, then you add to that that they feel that they aren't fighting the Trump administration. They aren't, you know, going to the mat to try to fight for democracy, fight against their, you know, legislation in the ways that they want to see.

44:53And then you see, like, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not even willing to endorse or on Mondani. I mean, they're just an embarrassing, pathetic mess. Yeah. Especially at that, like, The higher up you go, the more embarrassing and cringeworthy it becomes. So I think that's a big part of why their favorability has sunk to such historic lows. I saw it actually in the D.C. context. Dave Weigel was like, you know, because the D.C. mayor and the politicians were all caught off guard. And Weigel was like, oh, you've only had seven months to prepare when he said he was going to do it on the campaign trail.

45:25It's like, so if you're Chuck Schumer, fine. You know, you're not focused on Washington, D.C. If you're Mayor Bowser, it's like what you never thought about it. It's like you guys literally never thought about it. You had no plan for how this was all going to go and the police chief embarrassing herself on national TV or anything. It's like, so what's happening? Yeah. It's like I think that's what's so frustrating for a lot of people. I interviewed a councilwoman who was – who's more on the left. Yeah, I remember. Who was disgusted with her and like, you know, you're not even going to like try a lawsuit to, you know, at least force them to say what the emergency is.

45:55Like at least go through that process. But instead it was just like, eh, okay, what are we going to do? Yeah, I just thought it was crazy the way that—well, actually, D.C., another good example. Eleanor Holmes Norton, who if you live in Washington, is your—she has a non-voting power in the House of Representatives. But it's symbolic. But, I mean, you have—you're a politician. You're popularly elected. What is she, 88 years old? She has not made a single public statement on what's happened. And is running for re-election. And is running for re-election and, by all accounts, is based—look, I mean, you know, to avoid any libel or whatever.

46:29hasn't showed up to a lot of events. Yeah. A lot of questions by some of her constituents about her health. The D.C. political machine doing nothing about it. And it's like you look at that. If you're a Washington, D.C. lib, which statistically 95 % of you are, you should be really mad about that. I mean, you know, everyone on license plate says no taxation without representation, but it's like even your representation is doing nothing. Yeah. Again, I'm not saying, you know, that if you're a Republican, you should be like, yeah, that's hilarious. But if you're a Democrat, you should be mad. I mean, you should think about it in the Republican context from back in 2009.

47:03That's exactly why they voted out so many of their leaders in 2010 and again in 2014, because they felt completely abandoned on the issues that were the most core to them. Yeah. And that's what is different is that they do feel abandoned. Democrats do feel abandoned by their leaders in a way that is very different from any other time that I've seen in modern history. And if you play on that Tea Party 2010 wave analogy, you also had Republicans unpopular with their own base. But that didn't mean that they didn't do well in the midterms. There was, you know, a massive wave. Obama called it a shellacking.

47:38You know, so many Democrats swept down of office. It ends up being incredibly consequential because then you had the 2010 census. Then you had redistricting that helps to lock in the political era that we're in at this point in time. But in any case, though, I don't know that this number of Democratic unpopularity is going to be the saving grace that Republicans hope it is. Now, what I will say is if they were doing a lot better, I think they would be poised, you know, if they were fighting in a way and had a clear and compelling message and had people who were younger than 80 years old making that clear and compelling message on a day-to-day basis, I think they would be in position to truly romp and have, you know, an opportunity to maybe take back the Senate or things like that.

48:17I think the fact that they are not particularly trusted will limit the gains, but I still think they're probably in well position. And history would indicate that in this midterm, you're likely to get a backlash against the incumbent party in any case. The other thing to keep an eye on that's coming up more rapidly here is there are two states this year that have their governor's races, New Jersey, and it's Virginia. New Jersey, obviously, more of a Democratic state, and Virginia, more of a swing state, can put B4 up on the screen. So this race is going to pit former undercover CIA agent Abigail Spanberger.

48:49Why are these spooks running? The Democratic Party loves any like national security, police, whatever. They love that. This is a Rahm Emanuel thing, actually. Recruited all these like veterans and, you know, cops and whatever. So anyway, that's who Abigail Spanberger is. She's very centrist-y kind of a Democrat. And the Republican is Winsome Sears, who is the current lieutenant governor. And she right now, Spanberger has a pretty wide and as far as I can tell in the polls, quite consistent lead. Now, again, the polls can be wrong. But I will say in Virginia, they have she has Winsome Sears has a particular problem because of Doge.

49:35So many federal government employees live in Virginia. And I'm not just talking about Northern Virginia, although Northern Virginia is where a lot of the political power in the state is at this point in time. You also have a lot of federal government jobs throughout the state surrounding many military bases, etc. I mean, the little town I live in is based around a civilian scientist naval research center called Dahlgren. And so this is a very key issue. And Winsome Sears has not availed herself well. When she's talking about does, she's been unable to separate herself in the Trump administration.

50:09situation unable to separate herself from the doge federal government worker cuts and so you know i think that has significantly hobbled her chances and i think it was going to be a difficult race to begin with i believe i saw something about the the rga basically like she's not funding it's it's all a question of how much she's gonna i mean i think spanberger might been what do you think 17 18 points i don't think that's too far so uh what's i don't know one by two the pre Well, what was the 2017 program? I'm going to say Spanberger by seven. Spanberger by seven. Wow, that's still actually lower than I would think.

50:41Because, I mean, all indications right now are just a blowout. Put B5 up there on the screen. I sent this because this just shows you how crazy things are. The Virginia Police Benevolent Association, which four years ago supported every Republican in the state, is now backing Spanberger over Winsome Sears. They're like, yeah, she's done. We don't even have a choice. Well, I think, yeah, and I think that's what it is. Yes. First of all, Spanberger did try to vote for like police funding. She was certainly never a defund the police. Right. But they they endorsed against her when she ran for Congress.

51:15And so now I read it as they see the writing on the wall and they're like, we may as well endorse her and be in good with her because it'll put us in a better position to advocate for whatever it is we want when she's governor. That's how I that's how I read the endorsement. I think that's the right way to see it. But the point is just that it's always been a precursor. This one, I think, as you said, it's more of an outlier just because Doge is going to be so impactful. If you saw yesterday, Emily and I covered the layoffs, highest since 2021. A massive portion of it is government employees. Massive portion of those are going to live in northern Virginia.

51:52And so those people are just, I mean, I guess these are my neighbors. They're irate. They hate, they probably hate Trump more this time than last time because of Doge. They just can't stand it. Here's the other thing is it's not just the direct federal government employees, the contractors. Contractors, you're right. They all, so many of these contracts, like the funding was cut. And, you know, even if you're not losing your job, okay, you don't, you're not on with this particular client. I was actually just talking to a woman about exactly this. She's like, well, they cut our contract over at a camera, I think she was at USDA.

52:23And so now there's not really a place for me to go internally. So I'm just going to be working at like Booz Allen Hamilton, you know, doing the whatever in the office. And so it's it has a wide ranging impact. And if you drive around this area, you know, within a 40 mile radius, it's contractor after contractor after contractor. And this has been a huge upending of their lives. And, you know, it's it's the having to come into the office. It's the you know, the so the change to lifestyle, the commuting, the pay cuts, the contract loss, the actual job loss, just the chaos and the uncertainty, which is very stressful.

53:04So that will definitely weigh on the Virginia race. I mean, in some ways, it'll be interesting to watch the New Jersey race, even though all expectations are that the Democrat, Mikey Sherrill, who's another like centristy type of Democrat, all expectations are that she will end up prevailing. But the margin there will be interesting to see as well if there's some sort of a Democratic overperformance, especially since New Jersey was a state where Trump sort of overperformed. So, yeah, that's right. I mean, I still wonder how much of that is a 20. I think the 2024 election will be the high watermark for Republicans and Republicanism for quite a long time.

53:40There's a lot of reasons for that. The popular vote. You have the popular vote. You have the vibe. You have Kamala. Like there are multifaceted reasons for why it was. I think it could either be a flash in the pan or they could have built on it. I think the built on it has passed mostly at this point. I mean, they could still be a popular vote. We'll talk about this more in the Laura Loomer box. It's possible. It's very possible they could do it again. It would have to be, I think, a total change, both in the way that the two parties come into the 2028 election. But, yeah, just looking at where things are trending right now and in terms of the way that they've handled themselves, it does not look like the midterms are going to go all that well.

54:15All gerrymandering or redistricting or whatever, withstanding. which is still such an insane story the way that that is all happening. They could also screw themselves with that. Yeah, I agree. If they try to be too cute and make the districts a little too tight, they could, like it's not, you know. Yeah, Ryan made that point. If you go 52-48 in every single district, you can find yourself in some serious upsets which happens in Texas all the time. Especially because Trump has this particular unique poll. So the numbers that Trump pulled, let's say with Latino voters in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, you can't rely on another random Republican to be able to pull the Ted Cruz or whoever to be able to win in South Texas.

54:56You know, yeah, they probably hate him. It's that. I'm sure John Cornyn is going to clean up down in Laredo. You know, it's like that's not happening. Exactly. And so I think, you know, I think that's that makes it even dicier is that Trump is sort of like his own entity. So you don't have as much predictability about the way individual like voting groups are going to behave. So anyway, we'll continue to track that. That's an interesting story in and of itself. Agreed. When you're building a small business, every day brings new challenges and opportunities. More than 1 million small business owners across America trust the Hartford to help protect what they have built.

55:38Because no two businesses are alike, The Hartford makes it easy to get a customized quote for your business. The right coverage helps protect your livelihood. Protect what you've built. Get a quote today at thehartford.com slash small business. That's thehartford.com slash small business. 16 years ago, I started working as a CNA in the hospital. I loved it. On the day I decided to enroll in the nursing program at Rasmussen University, it was afternoon, my 35th birthday. I was hanging out with a friend, and they had just questioned me what I was going to do with this next chapter of my life. I immediately had said, I want to go to nursing school.

56:15So I actually had contact information from an advisor at Rasmussen, contacted her, and actually ended up starting like three weeks later. My name is Cherish Adams, and I'm a Rasmussen University graduate. Learn more at rasmussen.edu. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Baja Mar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues, John Batiste's all-new jazz club, the Caribbean's most luxurious casino, and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like our 15-acre tropical water park, wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course, and so much more.

56:56Visit Baja Mar.com today. All right, let's go ahead and throw this up on the screen, a little update about some of the full mask off that the Israelis are going on at this point. So Netanyahu says he is on a historic and spiritual mission and that he feels a connection to the vision of greater Israel. Let me go ahead and read this. Specifically, he was asked if he feels a connection to that vision of greater Israel. Netanyahu says, quote, very much. That question about a greater Israel after he asked the premier if he feels he's on a mission on behalf of the Jewish people. Netanyahu answers he's on a mission of generations.

57:31There are generations of Jews that dreamt of coming here and generations of Jews who will come after us. So if you're asking if I have a sense of mission, historically and spiritually, the answer is yes. And this has been a pretty consistent theme here, Soghar, that like from the beginning, if you'd listened to either the most hyperbolic leftist or the most psychotic settlers, you would have a much better understanding. Certainly don't listen to the Western press. Certainly don't listen to the U.S. politicians who just pretend they have no idea what's going on, even as you have words directly out of the mouths of the prime minister, the minister of defense, like the, you know, Smotrich, Ben Gavir, the members of his coalition, et cetera.

58:09They just pretend they don't hear or see any of that. But at this point in time, Netanyahu is feeling so emboldened, thanks to a combination of Biden and now Trump, you know, enabling every atrocity and allowing him to do literally whatever he wants, apparently, that he is just out and out saying, yeah, greater Israel, I'm into that. Just so people, if they don't know. Now, in fairness, there are apparently different conceptions of what, quote unquote, greater Israel might mean. Some of them mean just from the river to the sea, you might say, including, quote unquote, Judea and Samaria in the Israeli, which is the West Bank, in with Israel and the Gaza Strip.

58:47But there is a more expansive vision as well. We can put this map up on the screen that looks like this, You know, includes Egypt, includes part of Egypt, part of Saudi Arabia, part of Iraq, part of Syria, all of Jordan, you know, the Sinai Peninsula, of course, all of Israel plus the West Bank plus Gaza. So, you know, just putting it out there that this is a potential vision and certainly the actions that Israel has taken, given that they have been bombing almost all of these countries over the past couple of years, again, with our support and arming them, makes it much less preposterous than it felt at one point.

59:27We can put this up on the screen, C3. Saudi Arabia, very unhappy with these comments from Prime Minister Netanyahu. foreign ministry expressing the kingdom of Saudi Arabia's condemnation in the strongest terms possible of the statements made by the prime minister of the Israeli occupation government regarding the so-called vision of greater Israel and expresses its outright rejection of the settlement and expansionist plans adopted by the Israeli occupation authority. So, Sagar, what did you make of these comments? Well, the Saudi Arabian ones are interesting because the entire theories, the Abraham Accords and all of that.

1:00:02But the whole point around greater Israel is just the ideological vision and divorcing it from the things that they say, as in like, look, we're just about dismantling Hamas. We're just about occupying Gaza. We're not going to stay there. We promise, even though we said that there was going to be an indefinite presence. I mean, the reason why KSA is so upset about the map is because, did you see the map that we put up? It's got half of Saudi Arabia. Their country in it. And the reason why you are forced to take it seriously is because of the actions of the Israeli government under Netanyahu. If it was just Gaza, it would be part of the greater Israel project.

1:00:40But you have to contextualize it with the current treatment of the West Bank, of the two-tiered system of justice, of the indefinite presence in Lebanon, of the indefinite presence in Syria, of the overthrowing of the Syrian government, and then basically trying to establish a Druze-Israeli free zone inside of a country outside of the Golan Heights of the 67 recognized boards. So all of these things point to an expansionist rogue power. And we're going to get to a little bit later on in the show about the potential war with Iran. But it all fits together as part of something which is just destabilization, regime change everywhere else in order to serve this smaller nation, which could never do any of this without the backstop of the United States of America.

1:01:25Yeah. That's really the point. They recognize the historic moment that they're in where support for Israel is plummeting off a cliff. I mean, we're the only country that really matters to them. And support for them is plummeting off a cliff. They've already lost the Democratic Party. It's gone. I don't think you're going to get a 2028 Democratic nominee who holds the same positions that Joe Biden and Obama and every other bipartisan politician has on Israel in modern history. I don't think you're going to get that in 2020, and I don't think it's going to be possible. And certainly the Democratic base is disgusted and horrified by what our tax dollars have done.

1:01:57And on the Republican side, as we've discussed, you have a younger generation that thinks very differently. I think they know that. And so that's why they are really going for it, trying to secure this greater Israel vision, abandoning the pretext that this I mean, just think of how preposterous it is at this point to pretend like, oh, this is all just in self -defense. and we're doing these limited, targeted strikes against Hamas, and this is just all about going after the bad guys who got us on October 7th. Utterly and completely preposterous when you consider the number of countries that they're bombing, the territory that they've annexed, the actions in the West Bank that we're going to talk a little bit more about that Jasper Nathaniel has been highlighting.

1:02:40I mean, the West Bank annexation is all but complete. And this is all in quote-unquote self-defense for October 7th. You'd have to be a fool to believe that at this point, or a liar, which, you know, there are many of those as well. Just to take it back to what the settlers have been saying, because they've long been pushing this biblical vision, quote-unquote, of greater Israel, let's go ahead and take a listen to Daniela Weiss explaining why this is central to her conception and her ideological goals. How big is that land? It's very big. no this is the promise of god to the patriarchs of the jewish nation it's three thousand kilometers it's almost as big as the sahara desert so this is the biblical israel can i call it yeah so and so and this is what's and so which country are these and which country don't mention i think it's iraq iraq and syria so you believe part of saudi arabia This is a holy place.

1:03:43It's a place, one part of the universe that was chosen by God. It's a kind of a stage for the Jewish nation to express the ideals, the ideas and ideals of the Jewish nation. So there you go. It's very large. She lays out for you. It's Iraq. It's Syria. It's part of Saudi Arabia. This is God's promise to us. This is also why theocracies are really bad. Because if you believe that your religion justifies a genocide, rogue wars against all your neighbors, this incredibly expansionist, aggressive foreign policy, if you believe that. And, you know, obviously Netanyahu is sort of embracing that even though himself he's like more of a secular figure.

1:04:34But he's allied with these hardcore religious figures and, you know, who have absolutely psychotic ideas about what the state should be and what they should do to effectuate it. You end up with absolute horror, which is exactly what we have. And it fits actually with this next piece. Let's put it up there on the screen. This is very significant. And inside of Israel is actually getting a lot of play. So after a 20-year freeze, the finance minister, Bessel Smotrich, has approved the construction of new housing units in an area where the development has been blocked. The reason why even these psycho-settler movements and others have not allowed settlers to go and be there is because doing so would, quote, effectively block the establishment of a Palestinian state due to its strategic position separating areas south of Jerusalem from those to its north.

1:05:24And actually, they followed it up this morning, Smotrich, in a press conference in the country where he said, by doing this, we, quote, bury the idea of a Palestinian state. Just, again, to understand exactly why all this is happening. And even in the Israeli press, here's what they say. To understand the significance, we have to go back to 1948. During the War of Independence, the Arab militias placed a siege on Jerusalem. After they broke the siege, the holiest site has now been under Jordanian occupation until the IDF liberated it in 1967. This siege left a stain on the consciousness of Israeli leadership, but they've kept it open for the potential establishment of a Palestinian state.

1:06:03So now by green lighting, yes, even this small settlement of 3 ,400 people, the strategic location of it is a signal to the Palestinians, to the Arab states, to the Jordanians and others. It's not happening. It's also meant as a counter diplomatic signal to all of the Western countries which are talking about recognizing Palestinian statehood. You can't recognize statehood if it doesn't exist in any sort of conception. Yeah, that's what people say. It's like, OK, point to me on the map where the Palestinian state is, because this is, you know, this is an extraordinarily provocative and I think significant development in terms of blocking any future Palestinian state.

1:06:39And Smotrich, again, he comes out and says it. You know, this isn't us just like theorizing or making it up. They put it out there and make it plain what is going on here. And this is what Jasper Nathaniel wrote about in that piece that we interviewed him about. He actually talked about this specific development and how consequential it was in terms of blocking the possibility of a Palestinian state. So this is this is what's going on. This is why annexation of the West Bank is de facto complete, because the Israelis have in real life, like in what's actually happening on the ground right now, they have complete control over everybody's life who lives in the West Bank.

1:07:19They are living under Israeli government rule. And it is truly, you know, I mean, any thought that this wasn't an apartheid system goes out the window when you realize that, yes, the Palestinians who live in the West Bank are fully under Israeli government control. And we know that they don't have any rights whatsoever. We know that settlers are encouraged to go and murder them. And then, you know, they get the settlers get off scot-free and are just sent more sometimes American-made weapons. So that's the reality of what's happening in the West Bank. And just to, again, tie it in here, because it's not only the religious extremist terrorists running Israel that are a problem and part of what has created such an insane situation.

1:08:02You also have some, you know, plenty of religion being invoked to justify our continued endless support of Israel here in the U.S. as well. Let's go ahead and take a listen to Lindsey Graham. I am tired of the word genocide. Let me tell you about genocide. If Israel wanted to commit genocide, they could. They have the capability to do that. They choose not to. Two people in my party. I'm tired of this crap. Israel is our friend. They're the most reliable friend we have in the Mideast. They're a democracy. It's not a hard choice if you're a Christian. A word of warning. If America pulls the plug on Israel, God will pull the plug on us.

1:08:49Israel is not the bad guy. They're the good guy. The bad guys are the radical Islamists who would kill everybody in this room if they could. So I haven't lost my vision of right and wrong. When it comes to foreign policy, President Trump has stood up for all the right things, and he stood up against wrong things. Yes, the government that is starving babies to death. They're the good guys. Those are the good guys. But he says, if Americans pull the plug on Israel, God will pull the plug on us. And Sagar, perhaps you want to weigh in on his statement that Israel's the best friend we could ever have.

1:09:27They're great. I can't weigh in whenever it's rooted in your biblical ideology, which many of your own believers say is Harris. Look, I'm not Christian. It's not my job to sit here and critique dispensationalism or whatever. I can only just say I think it's crazy and not really the way that you should conduct foreign policy based upon the particular interpretation of the Bible, which is a much more recent development and divorced from any sort of national interest. But that's Lindsey Graham and the Republican Party for you. I don't even know. You know, that's the other thing here with him. Does he really believe this or does they just use it as a cudgel?

1:10:03I actually don't know which one it is. I kind of think the latter because, you know, look, Lindsey Graham, he has crazy beliefs. I don't think he's a dumb guy. I think what he does is see clearly to preserve his neoconservative ideology that the one last bastion of pro-Israel support is these KUFI, John Hagee, evangelical Republicans. South Carolina is full of them. And so that's the one way that he can message himself as the upholder of their religion in terms of their foreign policy priorities. That's the only way I could possibly see it and to hold on to any sort of grasp organically at a political level.

1:10:38But that is a window into Israel support now. It's all biblical. Biblical. Yeah. And rabbinical. I think you're right that it's probably cynical. I mean, not that it really makes a difference whether he believes it or not. But the Israelis certainly use it cynically. Of course. You know, they see this and have long cultivated the, you know, evangelical Christian right in order to, you know, make sure that they have this solid base of support in the U.S. And we have to say it's been very successful for a long time. Yeah, absolutely. All right. Let's go ahead and get to this next piece. I listened to this entire Theo Vaughn podcast.

1:11:09I really recommend that you guys do as well. You know, Theo made a lot of waves when he came out and said, listen, guys, I think this is a genocide. He asked J.D. Vance about it when he was on the show. And he went a step further now by hosting a doctor, an American doctor who was just back from Gaza, you know, for a full episode to discuss what this doctor saw when he was there on the ground at Nassar Hospital. Let's go and take a listen to a portion of this. Saturday they had the MCI it's called a mass casualty incident and they basically pull a fire alarm I was like what the hell is that oh every doctor come down to the ER to try to help so I was like okay so went downstairs got in there it's just like brain matter coming out of people there's guts coming out of people's abdomens there's people's legs blown off and someone's carrying it in next to the you know one of the family members bringing it in for the doctors you know they think you can just reattach it and it's just like absolute chaos there's family members security in the hospital trying to push out the family members so the doctors and nurses can take care of the patients.

1:12:08It's absolute chaos. And then us American physicians are just like looking at each other like, what is going on here? And, you know, that's when reality hit. And I was like, okay, this must be like a one-off. And it just kept happening every day. And sometimes multiple times a day. Essentially, basically, we found the pattern related to when the GHF sites were opening up. So he's there backing up the claims, which we heard directly from a doctor who was just recently back. We, of course, heard from Anthony Aguilar, GHF whistleblower, that when the sites are active, you are going to have mass casualty incidents.

1:12:47You are going to have, he says, hundreds of people showing up in the hospital, wounded in the conditions that he describes. There were a couple of other moments, Sagar, that I also thought were really interesting. I mean, horrifying. he said that he heard of people who were basically trying to commit suicide by ghf where you know an islam suicide is banned and so people would talk about like listen if i if i lose my family like i'm just gonna go to one of these gf ghf sites and hope that they take me out like that's how grim and dire the situation was and yet he was really inspired you know but of course by the the people he saw there he was really man doctors are cut out of a different cloth because he felt so energized by just getting to go and help care for people and like be in the situation where he was able to do something and not just walk from wash from afar so I mean it's just remarkable to see the way these people operate and then there was um also a moment that I thought was pretty interesting from Theo because he explained more why he felt the need to speak out on this and come forward even though he felt some pressure not to and he's like you know when from the time that you're a kid, you're taught endlessly about the Holocaust and this idea of like this genocide and can never happen again.

1:14:02And then you see it happening and you're supposed to stay quiet. So he, you know, he sort of really took in at face value this idea of like, we can't be involved in that. We, when we said never again, we really actually should mean it. And that's why he felt the need to say something and speak out, even though that's obviously, you know, sort of an uncomfortable place for him to be. Yeah, I mean, I think for him, he is just naturally found out about the issue. He's horrified by the issue. He's not boxed into politics since he's like, this is how a normal person reacts. So it's actually a good barometer.

1:14:33I think so too. You know? Yeah. Because for most people, they're not coming in with all the baggage of Washington and the social consequences and they're like, yeah, I think this is really messed up. That's it. And then actually it's when you get the backlash that you're like, whoa, am I crazy? And then that's the battle test for Theo and for Miss Rachel. It's kind of fascinating, the track of Miss Rachel, if you go and you look at it. She started out with a single thing where she's like, my heart weeps for the babies of Israel and Gaza. Boom. I mean, mass attack. Then she did her Hop Little Bunnies song with a three-year-old girl who got her leg blown off.

1:15:12Same thing. Now it's like anti-Semite. And she had to decide. I've actually been listening to some interesting episodes and stuff where she talks about this. And she was like, look, I mean, by the way, look, let's not deny it. Miss Rachel's filthy rich, all right? So at this point, you don't need to do it for the money. You're one of the most watched YouTube videos, Netflix and all that. You're a brand. And so she's like, okay, so if I'm the next Mr. Rogers, which she considers herself like in that vein, she looked back to a 1969 episode that Mr. Rogers did where he hosted a black man and they both put their feet in the same pool as a statement against segregation.

1:15:46He didn't make anything about it. It was just one of those things where by doing it, treat it as normal as a statement against Jim Crow and against segregation. So she sees herself now in that vein where you've made enough money that you don't care anymore. And then you set yourself at the standard. And what I think that a lot of these Zionist and pro-Israel supporters don't understand is that when you bring the full hammer down on people, especially if you're independent like Theo or Miss Rachel or places like this show, you don't have the tools of control. You actually make us be like, no, actually, screw you.

1:16:17Like we're going all in. Now I'm going all in. Yeah, we're going all in. We're talking about intermarriage. We're talking about Jewish supremacy. Like we're putting it all on the table now. And I think that's what they underestimated in terms of U.S. popular culture is that for the internet and for people who don't have their ties to all these think tanks or whatever, you can speak very, very freely and say whatever you want. And so, you know, and acknowledge reality. And that's part of the consequence of how this has all gone about. And it's actually really pushed people and made them feel as if they have a responsibility at a certain point to be like, no, I need to counter, you know, all this other BS that's out there.

1:16:53Yeah, and it's why the tactics become increasingly heavy handed. Where it's like, OK, we're going to deport you. We're going to arrest you. We're going to, you know, block your block. We're going to install an IDF sensor at TikTok. You know, they become increasingly desperate. it. And it also ties in back to what we're saying about, you know, them really going for it with the Greater Israel Project and the complete annexation, both of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, because they recognize that there's a limited runway here for them at this point. One other thing I wanted to highlight is Emma Vigeland interviewed over on the Majority Report, a doctor who was talking about, you know, what he saw and the ways in which he believes, and this is backed up by, you know, a Lancet study and other studies of the death count, why he believes the official death count is such a wild understatement.

1:17:40Let's go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of that. The numbers are a wild undercount. That's perfect. I can tell you, for example, about malnutrition. So I work within the Ministry of Health system, right? We as what are called emergency medical teams, international doctors and nurses and allied health professionals, we go in in solidarity with medical teams. And so we sort of follow their lead in terms of how they do things. When I document what the cause of death is for somebody, everybody receives a piece of paper that says how they died. What our directive is, is that if there's anything other than simple malnutrition that's causing this death, don't write it down as a malnutrition case.

1:18:14You can write it as secondary or tertiary, but don't write that this person died for malnutrition. Similarly, Palestinians do not count the dead unless they have been to a hospital. So, for example, there have been many aid massacres, which, by the way, is another kind of depravity we haven't even touched upon. When the aid massacres have been happening, there are many bodies that people tell me, lots of my patients will tell me there are bodies stranded there that we couldn't get to. We don't count those dead. We don't count them even really as more than missing because we don't know for 100 % sure that that person is dead.

1:18:41Like, look at the lists the Palestinians release. They release only the bodies they can identify with the ID numbers attached to them. Of course, it's a wild undercount. Think of how many people are under the rubble, how many people are still in red zones, how many people are thrown around laying dead in the sun, including at GHF sites. Of course, it's a wild undercount. Really credible organizations that have done these counts for other places like Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo estimate the number at this point to be five to six times more easily. That's 300 ,000 people who are very likely dead.

1:19:12And of course, there's another concept in medicine called excess deaths. So, for example, I've seen numerous number of people, dialysis patients. I saw dialysis patients who we worked on yesterday for a number of hours who ended up dying. In our account, that person died of a kidney-related cause, but obviously that person was malnourished. They couldn't receive dialysis care the way they were supposed to. They were killed by Israel. They were killed by the occupation. But we don't count those as direct conflict-related deaths. So I thought that was a really effective explanation of the ways in which and the very, you know, rational ways in which this is likely a very wild undercount.

1:19:46And, you know, I also think about Amir, who was killed at a GHF aid site and is now just, quote-unquote, missing. You know, how many other people were, I mean, likely what happened is Israelis came in with their bulldozer and he is buried somewhere under the sand there by that GHF-8 site. Very likely the case. You know, as they come through and they use the bulldozers to destroy all of Gaza City, like how many bodies under the rubble will never be recovered? And then he talks about, you know, people who have other conditions. They're not able to get the medical treatment they need. Their bodies are incredibly stressed by hunger and a lack of clean drinking water and the endless displacement.

1:20:24And now they're exposed to elements with there's been extraordinary heat wave in the Gaza Strip. And those deaths don't get counted in the official war death toll. So, you know, I don't know if we'll ever know exactly what what the count is. But I think we can say with a lot of confidence now it is wildly higher. the number of people who have been killed by Israel during this genocide is wildly higher than the official number. And if anything, the news media downplays that number. It's, oh, the Gaza, you know, the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry. Yeah, we're not doing that anymore. You know, like this health ministry, trutherism or whatever.

1:21:01Look, eventually one day we'll know. I actually thought his point about Rwanda and all of that was very apt because the death toll did take a while for it all to come in. It would make sense that you can't have accurate counting of the dead. I mean, what, you think the Nazis had a very accurate account, right, of who they killed and when? It was more accurate than people thought, but people had to go back and look to actually assemble all the records to come to the numbers that they eventually did. So it's just one of those where you really have to just think about both the death toll and the way that it's being messaged.

1:21:32But I do broadly think that the Theo Vaughn, Miss Rachel phenomenon and all of that is very impactful on the culture in a way that a lot of people in Washington are underestimating. I really think America, American politics is way too captured by Twitter where Israel is wildly overrepresented. And that if you look at any other social media platform, it's 90-10. I remember thinking that with the Nelk Boys episode, and that's a real lesson for people just in terms of media consumption and kind of where the country is going. And I think it should be internalized by people in power, but they don't want to listen.

1:22:06No, they certainly do not.

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