8/16/25: John Mearsheimer BREAKS DOWN Trump Putin Summit

0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Thinking about selling your car? Get a real offer worth real money from CarMax. Then take seven days to think it over. That's it. No haggling, no hassles, no pressure. Get all the details and a real offer today at CarMax.com. Want to drive? CarMax. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. The Summer Savings Event is here at Apple Vacations. It's the perfect time to bring everyone together for the getaway you've been dreaming about. Book between July 24th and August 27th and enjoy up to 55 % instant savings. From relaxing beach days to unforgettable moments with the people who matter most, your next vacation starts here.

0:38Travel through July 31st, 2027. Start your vacation today at AppleVacations.com or through your travel advisor. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. Stand still, not a chance. You're a lifelong learner who's come this far. Now we are here to help you keep going further. Capella University. What can't you do? Visit capella.edu to learn more. Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

1:19So if that is something that's important to you, please go to breakingpoints.com, become a member today, and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com. All right, hello, everybody. Happy Saturday. It is Ryan and I here to break down everything that's gone on in the news. And you may have noticed that we actually have a very special guest. We're very honored to be joined by Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, an intellectual hero of mine and a great friend of the show.

1:54Sir, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it. Thank you for having me. It's my pleasure to be here with you and Ryan. Absolutely, sir. So we are going to go through with you everything that happened yesterday at the Trump-Putin summit, as well as some of the information that is now coming out as a result. So just for everybody's purposes, we're recording this around 9 a.m. Eastern time. Things could obviously change with the diplomatic situation, but this is generally where things stand as of right now. So, Griffin, could we go ahead and start to kind of the show of the summit where Trump made a big, you know, a grand gesture at the in Alaska at that summit greeting Putin with the red carpet lined with U.S.

2:39fighter jets? He flew a B-2 bomber escort over Putin's head as a show of tremendous military might. That seemed to kind of be the tone that Trump wanted to set, a reminder to Putin, quote, who's boss. But things very quickly changed from there, professor. What we started to see was a nearly three hour three on three meeting between Donald Trump, Secretary Rubio, Steve Wyckoff, two of Putin's advisors and their translators. There was a scheduled lunch, which they eventually missed, and they announced in a flurry of changes a press conference at that press conference. It really isn't even fair to call it a press conference.

3:20It's more of a press announcement. Lasted about 12 minutes. Putin actually spoke first. So, Griffin, let's go ahead and take a listen to Putin, what he had to say, specifically his framing of an agreement that they had had, that Trump later rejects, but the contours of what the setting piece is for what follows after the summit. Griffin, let's go ahead and take a listen, please. I expect that today's agreements will be the starting point not only for the solution of the Ukrainian issue, but also will help us bring back business-like and pragmatic relations between Russia and the US. And in the end, I would like to add one more thing.

4:00I'd like to remind you that in 2022, during the last contact with the previous administration, I tried to convince my previous American colleague that the situation should not be brought to the point of no return when it would come to hostilities. So, Professor, he initially framed things as an agreement, but the real top line was that there was no ceasefire that was announced. And it appears that he rejected the European, Ukrainian and U.S. position for an immediate ceasefire, just broadly having watched Putin's full eight minute statement and everything, as well as some of the positions that the United States tried to force onto Putin in the head of this summit.

4:48What's your reaction so far just to Putin, the way that he handled himself there with Donald Trump? And what does it tell us about the broader situation? Well, I think that Putin obviously did a brilliant job of handling himself in yesterday's meeting. There's just no question about that. And that's really all he had to do was come and look diplomatic, look smart, look respectful of President Trump. And it would do a great deal to put an end to his isolation in the West and give him real legitimacy. And he came in and, as I think almost everybody expected, he did the job. and he was very effective in that way.

5:38And then there's the whole question of the ceasefire, which you raise. Just for the audience's purposes or for clarification for the audience, it's important to understand that there's a difference between a peace agreement and a ceasefire. And really what the Russians want is not a ceasefire because they're winning on the battlefield. What they want is a peace agreement. And what the West wants and the Ukrainians want is a ceasefire. And Trump tried to convince Putin that what we need here is a ceasefire. And what resulted is that Putin said there will be no ceasefire. We have to have a peace agreement.

6:25And in fact, Trump has now backed off from demanding a ceasefire. And he said to someone after the meeting that the best solution to this problem is to go directly to a peace agreement. In other words, putting the ceasefire that the Ukrainians and the Europeans and many people in the United States want aside. He's saying that's a nonstarter after having talked to Putin. So I think in terms of the clip that you just showed, that's the most important substantive point. And can you unpack for people why Ukraine would be reluctant to reach a peace agreement versus an immediate ceasefire? Like what is the advantage of one over the other to Ukraine?

7:12Well, the advantages of a ceasefire are mainly that Ukraine is losing on the battlefield, and the West cannot do much to help it at this point in time. So if you can create a ceasefire, put an end to the fighting on the battlefield, that gives the Ukrainians a respite, number one. And number two, it allows them to get more arms from the West to build up their forces and then put up a better fight against the Russians moving forward once the fighting restarts. In other words, once the ceasefire ends. But the Russians are not dumkhofs, and they understand if they're winning, it would be nuts, to put it bluntly, for them to stop the war when they're winning, allow the Ukrainians to recover, and then fight more effectively at some point down the road.

8:14So the Russians have no interest in a ceasefire. Ukraine and the West really like the idea. What the Russians want is they want a peace agreement. They want to settle this one, but they want to settle it on their terms. It's very important to understand this. The Russians view Ukraine joining NATO as an existential threat. This war for them is existential. And they have a set of demands that they will not compromise on. There are three principal demands. One is that Ukraine and the West recognize that Russia has annexed those four oblasts that they now partially occupy, four oblasts in Ukraine plus Crimea.

9:02That's demand number one. Demand number two is that Ukraine be a neutral state. That means it can't be a NATO and there can't be Western security guarantees, especially a security guarantee from the United States. Ukraine, from the Russian perspective, has to be neutral. Third demand is that Ukraine has to disarm, not completely, but disarm to the point where it has no offensive military capability, i.e. it can't threaten Russia. Now, these are three harsh demands from the Ukrainian point of view and from the West's point of view. These are unacceptable demands to the Ukrainians and to most people in the West.

9:50And this is why you can't get a peace agreement. So what we have here is the Russians want a peace agreement. Ukrainians in the West have no interest in a peace agreement. The West and the Ukrainians want a ceasefire and the Russians have no interest in a ceasefire. And the end result is you have a very short meeting and you have no agreement. Very well said, sir. Let's go ahead and take a listen to Donald Trump, because with that context, everything that he says begins to make no sense. There's no deal until there's a deal. I need to get on the phone with NATO and with Ukraine, which has now happened.

10:26and we're gonna give everybody the results, but it's still actually really the framework that I want people to go into with the Trump press conference, again, press announcement, is I have never known this man not to take an extraordinary amount of questions, even in the Helsinki summit of 2018. It's three minutes roughly that he speaks. It's clear that he is incredibly muted, both emotionally after his meeting with Putin. And I think what he's realizing in real time is the mistake that he made in agreeing to these European and Ukrainian, quote, red lines going into the summit itself and starting to understand the exact puzzle that you just laid out.

11:03So with that, guys, let's go ahead and take a listen to Donald Trump and what he had to say. We've made some headway. So there's no deal until there's a deal. I will call up NATO in a little while. I will call up the various people that I think are appropriate. And I'll, of course, call up President Zelensky and tell him about today's meeting. It's ultimately up for them. They're going to have to agree with what Marco and Steve and some of the great people from the Trump administration who've come here, Scott and John. Thank you very much. We have some of our really great leaders. They've been doing a phenomenal job.

11:46We also have some tremendous Russian business representatives here. And I think, you know, everybody wants to deal with us. We've become not as country anywhere in the world in a very short period of time. And we look forward to that. We look forward to dealing with trying to get this over with. We really made some great progress today. I've always had a fantastic relationship with President Putin, with Vladimir. We had many, many tough meetings, good meetings. We were interfered with by the Russia, Russia, Russia hope. All right, Griffin, you can go ahead and come out of this because that's effectively everything that we do need to know, which is he said there's no deal until there's a deal.

12:31I need to get on the phone with the Ukrainians and the Europeans. And now, Professor, we actually do have the result of that. Can we go ahead and put Donald Trump's truth, please, up on the screen? Because this lays out exactly what you said, and I can go ahead and read from it. It says, a great and very successful day in Alaska. The meeting with President Putin went very well, as did a late night phone call. But he says, quote, it was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a peace agreement, which would end the war and not a mere ceasefire agreement, which often does not hold up.

13:06President Zelensky will be coming to D.C., the Oval Office, on Monday afternoon. If it all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin. Immediately, sir, we also got Zelensky's reaction and kind of the laying out of where I think things are going to trip up. So let's go ahead and put that up there as well, because it's very similar to the ceasefire demand that was made initially. He says killings must stop as soon as possible. The fire must cease both on the battlefield and in the sky, as well as our port infrastructure. All Ukrainian POWs and civilians must be released. Pressure must be maintained with the aggression and occupation.

13:42In my conversation with President Trump, I said that sanctions could be strengthened if there's no trilateral meeting with Russia. Sanctions are an effective tool. And then security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term with the involvement of both the Europe and the U.S. All important to Ukraine must be discussed with Ukraine's participation. So it appears, you know, given the context of everything that you've laid out here, that we see that Trump is now dropping the initial ceasefire demand, which effectively, as you said, wouldn't make a lot of battlefield sense for Russia. But on the peace agreement terms, he's accepting this European or at the very least the European and the Ukrainians are effectively demanding the same ceasefire that Putin just rejected, as well as a laundry list of other things that are unacceptable to the Russians.

14:28So how do you expect then the Monday meeting to go with President Zelensky in the Oval Office? This is Charity Lawson from Bachelor Happy Hour. Charity, I was thinking about this the other day. What's something that you'll always say yes to? That's easy. Seeing my friends, last minute girls trip, basically making memories you'll talk about for years. Same. And somehow every one of these memories comes with something to plan. That's so true. That's why Klarna stands out. It's about smarter tools that help you manage your money without taking away from the moments that matter. Exactly. With flexible ways to pay, cash back that builds automatically, and everything in one place, Klarna helps you feel more confident making everyday money decisions.

15:10Because when you have the right tools, everything feels more manageable. Download the Klarna app today or visit Klarna.com to learn more. California resident loans made or arranged pursuant to California finance law license NMLS number 1353190. Klarna balance account required to be eligible for cashback points, limitations, terms, and conditions apply. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. The summer savings event is here at Apple Vacations. It's the perfect time to bring everyone together for the getaway you've been dreaming about. Book between July 24th and August 27th and enjoy up to 55 % instant savings.

15:42From relaxing beach days to unforgettable moments with the people who matter most, your next vacation starts here. Travel through July 31st, 2027. Start your vacation today at applevacations.com or through your travel advisor. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty makes powerful and effective skin care simple, and it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types, and it's designed to work as a complete skin care system, leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth, and nourished.

16:21I recommend starting with Cindy's Full Regiment, which contains all five of her best-selling products, including the amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next-generation serum has the power of Melon Leaf Stem Cell technology. It's melon leaf stem cells encapsulated for freshness and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five-star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and you can get the amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just$49.95. That includes our introductory five-piece system, free gifts, free shipping, and a 60-day money-back guarantee.

16:55All that available at MeaningfulBeauty.com.

17:01Well, I think there's one very important dimension to what Trump said that we don't want to lose sight of. And that is, I think he's passing the torch to Zelensky. Yes. I think in a very important way, Trump has come to understand that he can't settle this one. right? There's no way he can agree Trump to a peace agreement and convince the Ukrainians, the Europeans, and the Western foreign policy establishment that that's the smart thing to do, right? And he can't convince Putin to agree to a ceasefire. So what can Trump do? And of course, what Zelensky says he should do is put secondary sanctions on Russia.

17:48And we can talk about that because this meeting was in good part about secondary sanctions and Trump's interest in secondary sanctions in the past. But Trump understands. He was asked afterwards what this means for secondary sanctions. There are going to be no secondary sanctions, at least at this point, says Trump. So the sanctions are off the table. The ceasefire is off the table. and Trump has basically agreed with Putin that you got to go directly. He said this, you got to go directly to a peace agreement. So Zelensky comes to the White House. What does this mean? He's basically saying, I believe that Zelensky and the Europeans can now sit down with Putin and they can work this out.

18:37If they need me, I'll be there, but it's up to them. I'm not going to cut a deal and then try and force it down the throats of the Ukrainians and the Europeans because they don't want to go along with me. So if you listen to the press conference, this is what you were playing. He said it's ultimately up to them. He said he's going to call NATO. He's going to call the Ukrainians. But what happens is, and these were his words in the clip that you played, it is ultimately up to them. Very important words. Yes. And I think Trump just understands he can't solve this one. And he's correct. He can't solve this one.

19:20He might have been able to solve it if he had been strategically smart from the get-go. But since he took office on January 20th up to now, he has behaved in a remarkably foolish and uninformed way in terms of dealing with the Russians. What he finally figured out yesterday after talking to Putin, he should have figured out before he moved into the White House on January 20th. The Russians have had one position on this issue since at least last June 14th. Last June 14th. This is June 14th, 2024, right? Putin said very clearly what the Russian demands were. They were consistent with what he had said before June 14th, 2024, and he has not changed those demands at all since June 14th, 2024.

20:22So why didn't Trump and company understand exactly what those demands were and work around that starting on January 20th? I don't know what the answer is, but they didn't. And the end result is he finally figured it out yesterday. So from your perspective, it was the Vladimir stop, we need to stop this on day one. That was all a mistake and he needed to understand that he had to approach this through the context of a broader peace agreement? Is that what you would say was the mistake? I think the fundamental mistake, Ryan, is that the vast majority of people in the foreign policy establishment refuse to accept the argument that the Russians see Ukraine in NATO as an existential threat.

21:10It's an existential threat for Putin and the people around him. And given that it's an existential threat, they are willing to fight a war, a major league war to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO or having security guarantees from the West. We can't get it through our thick skulls here in the West that Russia views Ukraine and NATO as an existential threat. And we continue to play this game, or we have continued to play this game up until yesterday, where we thought that Ukraine could have security guarantees from the West, or maybe it could even join NATO, that Ukraine could get that territory back, that it's lost, and so forth and so on.

22:03We've been delusional up to now. And I believe that the Ukrainians and the Europeans and huge chunks of the national security establishment here in the United States will remain delusional until the situation on the battlefield makes it impossible to continue along that foolish path. Right. It's very tragic, the result that you're laying out, but it's obviously the most likely. One of the things, sir, I want to talk about is the last grasp of the maximal pressurists is these secondary sanctions, because Russia is already the most sanctioned country in the world by the United States. And as Putin pointed out, actually, in his press conference, he's like, yeah, our GDP is up by 20 percent.

22:50You know, like we're actually doing fine. Trump has tried his hands roughly at some sort of these secondary sanctions with India. But, you know, it's very interesting that the Indian government has not changed his position a single iota. And in fact, it was a talking point of the Western security establishment that the secondary sanctions on India were the reason that Putin agreed to this summit in the first place. There does not seem to be hard evidence of that, given now necessarily how the result of the peace talks happened, and especially because they didn't change their position. But does that factor into how you say that the West has handled itself foolishly in believing that there's one more secret trick they might be able to pull to change the strategic calculus of the Russians?

23:35Yes. I mean, secondary sanctions are of enormous importance. And I believe this meeting was all about secondary sanctions. Now you're saying to yourself, what exactly does John mean? You want to remember that Trump in the weeks before this meeting was threatening secondary sanctions on Russia. And what that means is that you're effectively not going to sanction Russia because, as you pointed out, the Russians are so sanctioned at this point that there are no more direct sanctions you can put on the Russians that are meaningful. Secondary sanctions mean that you're going to put sanctions on India and China and a few other countries, but mainly India and China, if they continue to trade with Russia.

24:21In other words, if they continue to import Russian oil. Well, they're not going to work. We cannot put secondary sanctions on the Chinese. They have too much leverage over us because of rare earths and magnets. And as you pointed out, the Indians have made it clear that secondary sanctions are not going to work with them. And if anything, it's going to drive the Indians closer to the Russians, which is completely counterproductive. So secondary sanctions don't work. So what happened here was Trump got himself into a real pickle. He had promised that he was going to put secondary sanctions on the Russians by August 8th.

25:02So what does he do a few days before August 8th? He sends Steve Witkoff off to Moscow to talk with Putin about having a meeting, the meeting that took place yesterday. So if you have that meeting, then you don't have to put sanctions on the Russians, secondary sanctions, which are, again, effectively sanctions on India and China on August 8th. What happens is Witkopf goes, talks to Putin. Putin, of course, agrees to a meeting because a meeting is monitored from heaven for Putin, for reasons we talked about at the start of the show, right? He agrees. And Whitcoff comes back, tells Trump, Trump announces that they're going to have this meeting and he doesn't have to put secondary sanctions on the Russians on August 8th.

25:55He gets out of the pickle. And it's this meeting yesterday that does the trick. So one could argue that the meeting yesterday was in a way a victory for Trump because he got away from that promise. And furthermore, as we talked about before, it's very important to understand that he was asked after the meeting whether or not secondary sanctions would be put on the Russians. And he basically said that ship has sailed. So he has taken, at least up to now, you can never know for sure with Trump, but he has at least for now solved that big problem that he had. Yeah. Well, this is to say, guys, the fact is that we have no cards to play here.

26:42Right. He solved the problem. But as you pointed out, it was a problem of his own making. So since with Ukraine coming next week, I want to ask you from Ukraine's perspective, and I'll put up, I think this is roughly a fairly recent sense of where the where the front lines are. You know, Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea along these, if these lines were frozen. From what I hear from Ukrainians, they say, okay, it's actually just going to give Russia a chance to regroup. and then they're going to attack again and completely cut us off from the Black Sea. And we will just be, instead of a 80 % rump of a country, we'll be a 40 % rump of a country, landlocked, and just a dual client of both Russia and the EU.

27:33So if you're the Ukrainians, what are you fighting for here and what's your best case scenario? Well, I have been arguing for a long time. I think, as you know, Ryan, that the best case from Ukraine's point of view is to settle this war immediately. Because as you point out, they're going to lose 20 % if they agree to give up those four oblasts plus Crimea. About 22 % of pre-2014 Ukraine will be lost. Is this a tragedy for Ukraine? Absolutely. There's no question about it. I fully understand why no Ukrainian would want to agree to give up 22 % of the territory of the country. However, the question you always have to ask yourself as a good strategist is what is the alternative?

28:24And the alternative is to continue fighting. And as you pointed out, if you continue fighting, you're likely to lose probably about half the country. You're likely to lose Odessa, and that would be catastrophic. You're likely to lose Harkiv. You're likely to lose a handful more oblosses as well. So you will end up in that scenario as a dysfunctional rub state. It seems to me the least bad alternative, and I'm choosing words carefully here, it's not a good alternative. It's the least bad alternative is to cut a deal now and minimize how much territory you lose, and also minimize the number of Ukrainians who are going to die if you continue to fight on.