8/18/25: Hillary Praises Trump On Ukraine, Top Israeli Official Arrested In Pedo Sting, Trump Tariff Loyalty Scores

25:29You should be doing what it takes to make sure that our sovereignty and our territorial integrity is preserved. You should be guaranteeing our security because you're the reason, a big part of the reason, that we're in this situation to begin with. So I have endless sympathy for the place that the Ukrainians have been dragged to in this situation. And it's not to say to take away agency from Zelensky to say that there's nothing that's gone on there as well. But we're the big players in this game, and we have created this endlessly disastrous situation. Here's again where I need to stick with this.

25:59Zelensky today repeated the lie that the United States made a security guarantee to Ukraine in 1994. That is complete bullshit. He's referring to the Budapest memorandum of 94 where the Ukraine went – now, again, I'm going to choose my language carefully – gave up control of the Soviet Union's nuclear weapons because they say gave up control of our nuclear weapons. Right. No, no, no, no, no, no. Gave up control of the Soviet Union's nuclear weapons. Well, here's news for you, Ukraine. That was a non-binding agreement made by the Clinton administration. Now, when Putin gives one of his long lectures about NATO expansion, what does he cite?

26:36He cites how George Shultz and other secretaries of state told him, we will never expand NATO beyond the borders of Germany. That, by the way, is the exact same logic of Putin, who said the Secretary of State told me that you wouldn't expand, and you expanded. Well, as the Russians well know, in this country, nothing is legally binding unless it passes the United States Senate. It's the same thing with the Budapest memorandum. So you know what you should do? You should treat then the Clinton administration making a promise that they could never fulfill for the same timeline with the same weight of the United States telling Putin we would not expand NATO.

27:14Neither are legally binding. We have a treaty system ascribed by the Constitution in this country. But yet both sides take the word of some previous administration as law that we're supposed to follow. And yet if I told the Ukrainians, it's like, well, by your own logic and we never should expand NATO, what would they say? That's a Putin talking point. That's completely non-binding. And then Zelensky with a straight face says the same thing. I get it, OK? It's unseemly the fact that we signed a memorandum and then didn't end up backing it up later on. It's also unseemly to me that we expanded NATO later on, even though we didn't say it.

27:47But that's our system. We live in an elected government where different democratic leaders get to make different changes to foreign policy. You have to view it in that context and have to do so fairly. And if you want it changed, then pass it through the Senate. But that's the unfortunate part of all of this. And this is the superstructure on top of today's talks. It is the biggest NATO propaganda effort in modern times, basically since the expansion and the initial start of the war back in 2022. The goal is to set completely ridiculous and out-of-step parameters for the Trump administration and for the Europeans and the Ukrainians, such that Putin will not agree.

28:25They do not want this war to come to a close, period. They are not ready to stomach it. And the net result is probably going to be the Europeans continue to buy our scarce weapons from us, which, again, are coming from us. Who pays for it almost doesn't matter if the stocks are, you know, is what matters the most. Yeah, the money is not really the issue. And the war will continue day after day after day. Yeah, and the Ukrainian position will further erode day after day after day. I mean, this has really been, well, one of the lessons, again, of this war is we've set all of the conditions for nations to take the lesson of like, keep your nukes or get nukes.

29:04Yeah. Number one. And number two, the earlier this conflict was resolved, the better position that Ukraine would have been in. I mean, it still continues to be such a tragedy that we blew up those peace talks that were ongoing in Istanbul because that would have been the moment when you had the best potential possible outcome from Ukraine. And every day that they want to continue this war, the likely position of Ukraine and the likelihood that it's even able to persist truly as a sovereign, independent nation continue to diminish. Yeah, absolutely right. All right. So that's the context. We'll see how it goes for today.

29:37It's going to be a truly extraordinary day here in Washington. The schedule is an initial meeting first with President Zelensky, then a lunch to follow with the head of NATO, all of the major NATO powers and their heads of state, as well as the European Union. And then some sort of press conference release memorandum or whatever that will be released afterwards. That will be the set terms. Then we'll see what the Russians have to say. Do we expect them, Zagre, to take questions at any point? So let me take a look at the schedule just very quickly. Of course, we'll cover whatever. Yeah, we're going to cover everything that comes out.

30:14We'll, I'm sure, be leading. Knowing Trump, there's going to be something. So, yeah, on his public schedule, there is not currently any public press conference. But there is a press spray. What that means is when Trump is like in the Oval Office and the cameras all come in to ask questions. We have two of those scheduled, one with Zelensky and one actually with the European leaders. So most likely that 3 p.m. press pool in the East Room where they're going to have some sort of big meeting, that is where we will probably see the most significant tape out of today. But we'll see. And as we saw with the Putin summit, things move around, get canceled and stuff all the time.

30:52It moves at a very rapid pace. So who knows what's actually going to happen? But that's the context.

30:59Let's go ahead and get to this situation that unfolded in Las Vegas. I can scarcely believe that the details of this are correct, but we have double and triple checked. And yes, in fact, this all really did unfold. Let's put this up on the screen and shout out to I'm actually not sure her full name, Mel. Her handle on Twitter is Village Crazy Lady. She's done some really important reporting, not just here. So shout out to her for really breaking this down and bringing highlighting this, bringing it to the to the forefront. So she tweets the executive director of Israel's national cyber directorate was arrested this week in Las Vegas in a child predator ring sting.

31:40There were a number of other people who were arrested as well. I think seven different individuals. So he gets arrested in this sting of trying to lure a child on a computer for sex acts. and then he's released and allowed to go back to Israel. Keep this up on the screen for just one moment. So you can see she has screenshots here. One from YNet News, which is an Israeli publication, says U.S. detains worker from Israel's top cyber defense agency for questioning the prime minister's office. Says the incident resolved quickly, ending with brief questioning of national cyber directorate staffer before his release.

32:18So that's the way they're spinning it. It's like, oh, he was just questioning. and it was all fine. You've got the local news saying that all of these individuals, by the way, one of the other dudes in here was a pastor, a minister, so that's cool too. But he actually was arrested, apparently, facing charges. They all face felony charges of luring a child with a computer for a sex act and were booked into the Henderson Detention Center, with the exception of one of the individuals who's booked into a different detention center. center. So again, all of them arrested and booked. You can see she also has this guy, Tom Alexandrovich, who was the executive director of Israel's, still is, Israel's national cyber director, which very important position, by the way.

33:03There you can see his Twitter profile. So you can see sort of, you know, what his whole deal is. Let's put the next piece up on the screen with some more details reported out here by Mel. She says, just to clarify, she's got the arrest record here on the right. Okay, so again, rebutting the line of the Israeli prime minister's office saying, oh, he's just questioning his release. No, no, no. Here he is, the arrest record right there on the right of your screen. She says, number one, Tom Alexandrovich was 100 % charged. It's on the website. His next hearing is supposed to be 8-27-20-25. I'm sure that's not happening.

33:39Number two, Tom was charged with luring a child with a computer to engage in sexual conduct. Number three, in order to be charged with this specific offense, Tom had to seek out a child under the age of 16 with the explicit purpose of luring them from their parents to engage in sexual conduct. Who, she says, in the Trump admin, intervened on behalf of him? Was it cash? Wouldn't surprise me since the FBI was part of the sting. We want answers now. Sean King does have some reporting. Now, his reporting should be taken with a grain of salt. He claims to have sources within the police department who said, yes, this was our sting.

34:15And the Trump administration intervened and forced him to be released so that he could fly back to Israel in order to escape any sort of charges or accountability for this. I don't even know what to say. I mean, again, the details of this, you could not even make up. But it appears that he was caught dead to rights as part of this broader child pedophilia sting in Las Vegas. And then the federal government, the Trump administration, very likely, we don't have that totally locked down, but very likely, because how else would this happen, intervened and said, no, you got to let this guy go. And he's allowed to fly back to Israel.

34:59Unbelievable, Sagar. It's very interesting, isn't it? But, you know, I think a lot of it speaks for itself. So I'll just leave some of it. No, not much commentary is really needed there, is it? I was just, you know. I mean, we could, yeah, we could talk about, you know, also what's going on with Epstein kind of connects into this. That you could make that connection if you'd like to. But you could talk about whose interests are being protected here. Yeah, just so you know that this isn't the first time such things have happened. Pedophiles hide from justice in Israel. In a tense stakeout, they talk about having to look at, quote, the widespread problem of many accused American pedophiles flee to Israel.

35:38Bringing them to justice can be very difficult. In fact, an entire watchdog organization has to track pedophiles inside of Israel because they flee there and they seek, they use their dual citizenship basically to seek, you know, legal, escape the legal system here of the United States. I'll recall, everyone will recall that Epstein at one point fled to Israel. It was open talk and U.S. society returned from Israel to the United States for his sweetheart plea agreement in April of 2008. He was negotiating that deal from Israel, correct? Yes, that's right. And what they say actually inside of it is at least more than 60 have fled the U.S.

36:14to Israel, given its limited resources to identify these individuals. They say the actual number is probably much higher. Again, basically a weaponization of dual citizenship. But in here, you know, it could actually be a weaponization of diplomatic immunity. Now, you and I have lived here in Washington and or you lived in New York too. So the diplomatic immunity thing is always a source of tension. We have a ton of diplomats here in D.C. They have diplomatic plates. They often ignore traffic signs or whatever. But that doesn't absolve you, as it says very specifically, of felony charges. It's limited, but in many cases, like if you commit like murder or something, it's not like you just get diplomatic immunity.

36:50That's not how it works. Right. And so one of the things there are a lot of questions here is how exactly did you escape, you know, from a questioning standpoint, especially because all of the other people, from what we can see, have been arrested, right, in this sting. And by the way, you know, there were some initial questions around this. But other organizations, news organizations, including The Guardian, have confirmed his identity. So we're going off of their reporting. But it is still extraordinary because the very fact that he was released, whether it was state, local, or federal, is outrageous, right?

37:23Because you have somebody, came to our soil. I mean he did the worst thing he can do in my opinion. The absolute worst crime of all is trying to exploit a small child, right? I mean as far as I'm concerned, like that's where we get the death penalty. And then you get to flee the country and go back. Like, there's just so much about, you know, the actual crime itself, the way that our government is willing to look the other way. Again, we don't know if the feds were totally involved. I don't really see how they couldn't be. How could they not be? Because how do you just let somebody go like that?

37:56Or, you know, maybe they got scared because he was a diplomat and he flashed the diplomatic passport. That's possible. I mean, does he even qualify for diplomatic immunity? Because, I mean, he's not like an ambassador, you know. I mean, he's an Israeli official, but not every government official is entitled to diplomatic immunity. It's supposed to be ambassadors, high commissioners, other senior diplomatic officials. So, no, I mean, I think it almost has to be that, you know, probably the Israelis caught wind. Look, somebody somewhere did something. The Israelis caught wind. Yeah. They called up, you know, the FBI, maybe it's cash, who knows?

38:34someone in the Trump administration was like, this can't happen. And, you know, and I'm sure they were, this will be a scandal and this will be a big deal. And you don't want to have to deal with this and hope that it would just fly under the radar. And it may well have, if you didn't have, you know, a few people, a few like Twitter sleuths and journalists who looked into this and were like, hey guys, this is kind of a big deal. But yeah, we need answers to who intervened at what point and at what level, because this is absolutely insane. To go back to the piece that Sagar was citing before, was that CBS News that did the reporting there?

39:10This was a few years back, what, like 2018 or so that that report came out. But in any case, you know, they talk about it and compare it to the scandal in the Catholic Church where you had, you know, you had a mass cover-up. And within the Jewish community, oftentimes it's in these more orthodox sects where they don't want shame on the community. And so it's just, okay, well, you can flee to Israel and there'll be people there who will take you in and protect you. The Hasidic stuff is even crazier. I've read a number of, there's a New Yorker story from back in the day about inside the Hasidic community, how they protect you.

39:49Yeah, I remember those too. And he was like – they're like, oh, you just pay them off. Like you pay them$20 ,000 or whatever and everybody makes it go away and nobody goes to NYPD. I was like this is disgusting because it was just a serial predator protected over and over and over again. And they don't want scrutiny. Yeah, they don't want scrutiny of their community, which is – I mean sorry. You live in this country. By the way, if you want to live under religious law, there's a place called Israel. You can go and live there. Apparently you can live with impunity here apparently to these Jewish American pedophiles.

40:19In the story, they talk about how some of the people who prey on children here go there, flee, and actually continue to do it while they're in Israel. Of course, yeah. So they're going after Israeli children, too. Sick. Absolutely sick. Speaking of sick, you guys will recall there was a right to rape protest in Israel. Of course. Because there were IDF soldiers who were caught on camera raping and abusing a Palestinian detainee. and, you know, for once there was an attempt to intervene and arrest these guys and there was a mass protest against just the most basic level of accountability for these actions which were, again, caught on camera.

40:58And apparently this... Ugh, hon, the ice cream has turned to soup. I think the fridge is finally dead. Hopping on grandappliance.com. Great idea. They were awesome with the Samsung Ranger microwave we bought last year. Oh, they have matching Samsung in stock and next day delivery. Oh, let me see. Oh, yeah, that looks perfect. I hope we get the same delivery crew. Those guys were awesome. Agree. Total pros. Another crisis averted by the team at Grand Appliance. Appliance experts since 1930. This is Ashley Akinetti from the Ben and Ashley I Almost Famous podcast. Ben, I've been reflecting a lot lately on how many big life moments our listeners have experienced with us.

41:39Yeah, it's pretty wild. They've watched us go from dating shows to engagements, weddings, babies, buying homes. Every stage comes with new decisions. The milestones are the fun part, but the planning is where things get real. That's why Klarna stands out. Klarna gives people smarter tools to help manage everyday money with flexible ways to pay, cash back that builds automatically, everything in one place, and support that makes everyday decisions feel less overwhelming. Since life moves so fast, the right tools can help you feel more confident. Download the Klarna app today or visit Klarna.com to learn more.

42:19California resident loans made or arranged pursuant to a California finance law license and MLS number 1353190. Klarna balance account required to be eligible for cashback points. Limitations, terms, and conditions apply. Your social media feed delivers plenty of advice, but it doesn't know you. It doesn't ask questions. It doesn't give physical exams or order tests. Doctors do. At the American Medical Association, we believe the best care starts with a real conversation with someone who understands the science and your unique health. So stay curious, ask questions, but when it's time to make decisions, make them with a doctor.

42:52Learn more at amahealthvshype.org. That's amahealthvshype.org. This debate over whether or not Israeli soldiers should be, you know, raping prisoners continues to this day. Let's go and put this up on the screen. This is a VO. This is Channel 12 News. this person says it's one of the most popular news channels in Israel and they host a debate for and against institutional rape of Hamas detainees as a policy remember also I mean not that it would be okay even if they actually were quote unquote Hamas detainees but they also arrest children they arrest any man who is quote unquote a military age the level of abuse that has been documented by multiple human rights organizations is just absolutely sickening so So they're having, you know, a little pro and con, you know, little crossfire style debate there on Israeli Channel 12 news.

43:49Let's go and put this next one up on the screen, Sarah, because I know you're going to enjoy this one. The ADL has updated, updated their glossary of extremism and hate because they're really a credible, a really credible source now of extremism. and they say that America First is now considered to be an extremist term used by extremists in anti-Semitic, racist, and xenophobic ways. Now, let me be honest. There is a certain way in which you could define this that maybe you could get me to go along and agree, but we all know what's going on here. We all know what's going on here. It's that there are any Republicans who use the America First label to say, hey, maybe we shouldn't be supporting this genocide in Gaza.

44:31Maybe we should be focused on what is actually in the interest of our country and not participate in this barbarism that is going on with our tax dollars in our name. That's the part that they truly object to. Of course. And they did this before. I mean, remember the interracial marriage, intermarriage thing that we talked about recently. And the reason why all of this is important is that it's about defining the terms and making sure that all discussion, same discussion, is pushed to the realm of being branded anti-Semitism. Now, I again think that it's backfiring spectacularly, and that's part of the reason why I don't quite get it.

45:09Popular culture has long moved now against Israel. Mainstream media is the last bastion of any pro-Israeli support. And most people who are like us, who don't have any ties, funding ties, right, to the establishment can say what they want. When they're confronted with this level of smearing, they just say, screw you, I'm not going to deal with it anymore. Miss Rachel is actually the perfect example. She just shared this. I'll go ahead and read it. She says, the group, the Stop Anti-Semitism is calling me evil for wanting starving children to have food. They called for me to be investigated by the DOJ because I care about Palestinian children along with all children.

45:42It's led to me getting threats, needing security, and they have tried to ruin my career. It has been incredibly painful. But the pain does not compare in the slightest to what the children of Gaza experience. My dedication to children and their human rights is stronger than any of it. So that's what you've done. You actually turned the most popular children's influencer in the world with the most streamed show on all of Netflix ever for children on top of YouTube. I mean I was recently looking at her. I didn't even know views like that were possible, like 1.1 billion outside of Gangnam style or whatever.

46:13I was like I did not know this existed. And she's only been doing this for five, six years. She's a multimillion-dollar – honestly, maybe a billion-dollar brand here in the US. They sell stuff of hers at like Target. So you have turned that person into one of the most prominent spokespeople for the children of Gaza by branding them anti-Semitic. We are just news commentators and others. But the more that this comes for other people inside of the system, you just make it so that you look at the ADL thing and you just laugh. And then next time they're going to come and talk to me about anti-Semitism, even if it's genuinely anti-Semitic, I'm like, I need six other sources.

46:53I need to – or – Let me check it out for myself. Any credibility. That's what I do. Any credibility. It's like when someone calls something racist. I'm like, all right, show it to me. Let me see. You know, let me scrutinize it for myself. I don't believe you. That's my number. If the media is saying it, I'm like, let me check it out. Hate crime attack. I got to see all the details. If it didn't happen on camera, don't believe it. Same thing here. You know, it's one of those where they have turned it into a social weapon against everybody. and we are now, I think, collectively at a point where we're like, if you are not outwardly denying the Holocaust or whatever, and if it's about Israel, I'm not going with it.

47:29Well, and guess what? Genuine anti-Semitism is on the rise, and it's precisely because of the actions of Israel and the insistence that every Jew must be associated with it, which is preposterous and in and of itself anti-Semitic. I mean, just think about the discourse around Zoran winning in New York, which continues to this day about oh he needs to do more to appeal to the Jewish community blah blah blah. Then you actually look at the numbers you're like wait a second he has overwhelming support. He has more support than any of the rest of these people with the Jewish community in New York. So maybe stop being so one dimensional and caricature-ish and stereotyping people and what they care about and their position on this issue because no, turns out not every Jewish American wants to be associated with the genocide being perpetrated in their names in Gaza.

48:17It is utterly and completely disgusting. And so then when you have this intense censorship and when it's so clearly weaponized to just completely crush any sort of legitimate dissent on our nation's policy, by the way, vis-a-vis a foreign country, vis-a-vis the country of Israel and opposition and horror at what is being done there. When you have that, then yeah, I mean, this is part of why people like Nick Fuentes, who are genuine white nationalists and genuinely anti-Semitic, guess what? You have a lot of people who are, oh, well, what he's saying is making sense. No, he has a disgusting ideology.

48:54What he's saying does not make sense. But should you be surprised, are you remotely surprised that those are the types of people who will gain traction in this moment? You certainly shouldn't be surprised by that. And the ADL is probably part and parcel of sparking more anti-Semitism than any other group in America outside of the U.S. federal government. Let's go ahead and play this next part. So obviously there's this disgusting alliance between the absolute psychos in Israel, the psychos in our national government, and the evangelical Christian base, some of whom believe, and certainly some of the leaders of whom believe, that it is their duty to God to support Israel no matter how many babies they massacre.

49:40So as emblematic of that, here is Mark Levin talking about how this is God's war that we're fighting. Take a listen. This is good versus evil. This is civilization, as the ambassador said, versus the barbarians. We're fighting the 7th century.

50:01And we just beat the crap out of them.

50:08This is a righteous war we're fighting. And let me say this, this is God's war that we're fighting right now.

50:19And if Europe is too stupid to understand, that's their problem. I will remind you, that's where Hitler was born. Kufei conference there, Christians United for Israel, and he's saying, oh, this is good versus evil. Really? The good side is the one that's massacring and starving the babies, starving the entire population. The good side is the one that just announced complete and authorized complete ethnic cleansing displacement plan into concentration camps, which is currently in talks with different nations, to permanently displace Palestinians from Gaza Strip. That's what your religion is telling you?

50:54That is utterly absurd and disgusting. But it's also inarguable. And still counter to any basic sense of morality. It's also so inarguable because if they're fighting, I mean, people have always made this term, but it's like if you fight God's war, then nothing is out of the question. Of course, yeah. And that's why they frame it that way. That's what makes it so sick. This is God's war that we're fighting. If Europe is too stupid to understand, that's their problem. I will remind you that's where Hitler was born. It's like, where does this shit come, you know? And look, that is the perfect view into a Republican support for Israel.

51:23You know, a quasi, you know, either pre-diabetic or diabetic man who could barely breathe whenever he was giving his speech in front of a bunch of evangelical boomers, you know, who have been like, I guess, brainwashed into the specific type of Christian dispensationalism for support of the political state of Israel. Look, I'm not Christian. It's not my job to sit here and to, you know, to litigate these intra-Christian debates. Sure, but you can be a human with a view. Yeah, I'm just like, I mean, seems pretty crazy to me, but it's not my beef. But it's just one of those where I just feel that you can't help but look at that and see the psychopathy of what it takes at this point to be so rapidly pro-Israel.

52:08That's who they are. They look down on you, by the way, completely. And they have nothing but contempt, unfortunately, for all of us. It used to be the right that was more aggressive in the like, you know, you should be actually judgmental of extremist religious views. And the left that was more like morally relativist. I mean, I still think that's true on Islam. But anyway, yeah. No, I think if your religious belief is leading you to support horrors that are morally atrocious, yes, I think that should be subject to judgment. I think in a free society, I think that should be absolutely subject to judgment.

52:42You're talking to an OG Richard Dawkins guy, all right? I've been there from day one, but I did come to find that it does turn you into a little bit of a debate, bro, and a little bit, you know, it doesn't accomplish necessarily the goal that we would want. We may need to bring it back. Yeah, maybe we need to bring it back. Let me just, one more piece here. We don't have an element for it, but it fits in with the Mark Levin piece, and it's very important. I don't know if you guys remember, there was a judge at the International Court of Justice. Of course, they're the ones hearing South Africa's claim, along with others who have now joined the case, that Israel is committing genocide.

53:14And there was one judge there, the Ugandan vice president of the ICJ, who had put out a dissenting opinion that was just pure Israeli Hasbara. And it was, I mean, it sounded like it was literally written, and it may have been, by the Israelis. I was like, what is going on with this lady? Well, now she has come out, Sagar, and said that, quote, quote, God is counting on me to stand on the side of Israel that the signs of the end times are being shown in the Middle East right now. So now we understand why she was so out of step with all of the rest of the, including the American one, by the way, all of the rest of the judges at the ICJ in this dissenting opinion.

53:53She is not evaluating facts. She is, you know, coming from this place of religious extremism and, you know, her view that the end times are nigh. And so she has to do whatever she can to back up Israel no matter what. So, you know, not only are the consequences here domestically in the U.S., but the consequences of these viewpoints are global as well. Yep, absolutely. Very well said. All right, let's get to the economy. Ugh, hon, the ice cream has turned to soup. I think the fridge is finally dead. Hopping on grandappliance.com. Great idea. They were awesome with the Samsung Ranger microwave we bought last year.

54:29Oh, they have matching Samsung in stock and next day delivery. Let me see. Oh, yeah, that looks perfect. I hope we get the same delivery crew. Those guys were awesome. Agree. Total pros. Another crisis averted by the team at Grand Appliance. Appliance experts since 1930. This is Ashley Akinetti from the Ben and Ashley I Almost Famous Podcast. Ben, I've been reflecting a lot lately on how many big life moments our listeners have experienced with us. Yeah, it's pretty wild. They've watched us go from dating shows to engagements, weddings, babies, buying homes. Every stage comes with new decisions.

55:06The milestones are the fun part, but the planning is where things get real. That's why Klarna stands out. Klarna gives people smarter tools to help manage everyday money with flexible ways to pay, cash back that builds automatically, everything in one place, and support that makes everyday decisions feel less overwhelming. Since life moves so fast, the right tools can help you feel more confident. Download the Klarna app today or visit Klarna.com to learn more. California resident loans made or arranged pursuant to a California finance law license and MLS number 1353190. Clown a balance account required to be eligible for cash back points.

55:46Limitations, terms and conditions apply. Your social media feed delivers plenty of advice, but it doesn't know you. It doesn't ask questions. It doesn't give physical exams or order tests. Doctors do. At the American Medical Association, we believe the best care starts with a real conversation with someone who understands the science and your unique health. So stay curious, ask questions, but when it's time to make decisions, make them with a doctor. Learn more at amahealthvshype.org. That's amahealthvshype.org. We've talked a lot here on the show about inflation, about tariffs, and what the overall effect will be.

56:25But one of the things that we may have discounted is greedflation. Reinflation, you will remember there was a huge debate about the sources of inflation back in the day from 2021 onwards as to whether it was corporations raising prices, input prices going up. It turned out to be a part of both. But part of the reason why the stock market actually did quite well during the Biden years, despite horrible inflation, was that corporate profits were able to be maintained. How do you do that exactly? Well, you eat some of the costs, but you pass some of it on also to the consumer. And so we are seeing some of that with tariffs as well.

56:57Let's take a listen to this report from CNBC. I don't quite understand why the government is saying that profit margins increased when we're not seeing the essentially a lot of inflation in the consumer prices. But we're seeing prices higher on the wholesale prices that should compress margins. And we've had a whole bunch of companies come on and say we're taking big hits because of these tariffs. So this number should be going the other way. I'm not sure what's happening here. I'm actually not surprised that we didn't see compression of corporate profits. That's something that's characterized the inflationary period since the beginning of the pandemic, that corporations are actually able to protect their profit margins and actually even increase their profit margins at times using inflation and uncertainty as cover for price hikes, even if their costs aren't going up.

57:48And so one of the things we're going to be looking for in the CPI as consumer prices are starting to rise, is are corporations actually taking hits or are they able to use this moment of supply constraint created by tariffs and uncertainty created by the Trump administration to pass on higher prices even above their increased costs? All right. So there it is straight from CNBC. You know, they were killing themselves for that one because they hated greedflation narratives back in 2021 and 2022. But what it does generally fit with the pattern of is that the companies are broadly okay right now. And that's one of the things I've emphasized about this tariff policy.

58:29If the tariffs were working, then the S &P should be down by 20%. Because if a company had to actually increase its costs, CapEx costs here in the US, why would their stock go up? It'd be like, okay, well, we have to massively eat all of this new policy. The only way to offset that would be a shit ton of federal dollars or a tax break not happening because I can read what the tax code is. And that's why the S &P 500 is doing pretty well. Now, one of the ways that they're doing well is basically this like weird pay-for-play system inside of the White House. Let's go and put this up there on the screen.

59:02The West Wing has now apparently created a loyalty scorecard for 553 companies and trade associations on how hard they work to support and promote President Trump. So Trump, quote,

59:42Delta, AT &T, Cisco, Airlines for America, and the Steel Manufacturers Association. Apparently, other companies have not been able to rate on the list. One of the ways that you do is to cheer on things like no tax on tips if you're Uber or being a DoorDash person who is promoting some of the policy. But this gets to the heart of that NVIDIA deal. I think I covered it with Emily, which is still so crazy. It's like, yeah, you can do business in China, but you have to literally pay us a cut of the profit. Nothing to do with strategy, nothing to do with anything. And again, there are plenty of good arguments for letting NVIDIA send the H20.

1:00:26I went through all of them during the segment. Us getting a quote cut of it is not on the list of what that is. And now apparently we're doing the same thing with Intel, which by the way is a US company, which is even crazier because it's not even about that. It's the same thing. on the screen about this. Yeah, C3, please, from Intel, considering, quote, buying a stake in Intel. I am not even fundamentally opposed to sovereign wealth funds. I don't think they're always a bad idea as long as they're actually, you know, done properly. Right. Or any of that. That's not what's happening here. That's right.

1:00:57And that's the opposition that I have to so much of this. If we want to have a full-on strategy the way that China does it, where they have stakes and they control things for the overall national interest, which is actually benefiting the people, has a track record, I'm all in, okay? But this is not what we're seeing right now, which is basically like some loyalty, fealty thing to Donald Trump, you know, so he can get a solid bar of gold, which I'm still not over that. We should never be over that. It's pretty wild. Here's your tribute, sir. Yeah, it's like, you know, when Amazon explorers would go into the jungle, They would come with beads and other things to exchange for goods.

1:01:39It's like that's how primitive that is to present the leader with a bar of gold to the chieftain. That's why the loyalty score story and the Intel stake story tie together so importantly because it would be one thing. if, yeah, if you were pursuing something like, you know, a China policy, which is very long-term driven and very much in the interest of, hey, what do we want life to be like in China for Chinese? What do we want to invest in? What are the industries of the future? Like this very intentional strategy that instead, what we have here is just, did you tweet about the one big beautiful bill?

1:02:17You know, did you show up with your bar of gold at the White House? Like how How slavish and devoted have you been to the person of Donald Trump? Oh, OK, then we're going to look upon you favorably. And if not, then not. So all of these, like all of this involvement in the economy, which, yes, if done in a different way, I would support, too. And in fact, I'm hoping that some candidate on the left picks up this road that has been mapped up by Trump and does it in an actually intelligent way to actually benefit the manufacturing economy here and benefit jobs and wages and all those sorts of things.

1:02:52and invest in critical industries and industries of the future. But no, this is not that. This is about just, you know, what's going to be good for Trump, who paid the best tribute, who had the best gold bars in the Oval Office. You know, the DoorDash example they had, they had a delivery driver who wore a red DoorDash mom t-shirt as she stood behind Trump at a White House event, promoting no tax on tips, also in a Fox News digital interview. And that's what earned them their great loyalty score, and now they'll be able to reap the benefits of that. It's also why Wall Street hasn't been that upset about the tariffs, because they know that they have the money to be able to get in those rooms, and they know how to work as ego, go massage as ego, and be able to get whatever they want.

1:03:35I actually read a fascinating analysis, which is that economists have undercounted the actual tariff. Part of the reason why people are shocked right now about the S &P and everything is because the official tariff rate is like 15 % or whatever on average. But what What the piece dug into is that economists took the government too literally, as in they took it for what it is and thought it was being applied across the board. That's not what actually they're paying. If you look at the corporate profit and the reported costs of tariffs, it doesn't line up with the government figures. And the actual tariff rate is much lower, indicating a ton of exclusions which are not public, which it turns out that the Fortune 500 is probably paying about half of what the government actually says they are paying.

1:04:19And that is the only thing that you can possibly reconcile, the profit numbers and where things are today, the lack of effect, and then the government-published number. There's no other way to do it. And it was a long, like, more economic analysis. But translating it to others is basically saying, like, yeah, you know, what they say they're charging is not what they actually are because there's all these corporate exclusions that are being cut at the Fortune 500 level that you and I know nothing about. But this is all deeply legalistic. It's all with the Commerce Department, et cetera. But it results in the fact that the tariff being paid are actually much lower than they say.

1:04:55So it makes – that's, again, in terms of the cronyism. I mean, they're probably using this loyalty score to determine who wants the car bounce. Right. And that's why I think it's very important for actually understanding some of this. And that actually gets to the Scott Besson point with a very extraordinary comment about Sovereign Wealth Fund. Let's take a listen. We have these agreements in place where the Japanese, the Koreans, and to some extent the Europeans will invest in companies and industries. We direct them largely at the president's discretion. And how does that work? I mean, it's almost like an offshore appropriation.

1:05:33I'm not sure we've ever had anything like that in the States before. Or have you consulted with, I don't know, the Senate Finance Committee or the House Ways and Means Committee or or what? Well, Larry, I think a good framing of that is other countries, in essence, are providing us with a sovereign wealth fund. They're going to build our factories. They're going to help us to build new factories, which Mr. Trump loves. Exactly. So the way to think about it is these huge surpluses accumulated offshore, let's take Japan, we're going to have$550 billion, and they will be reinvesting that back into the U.S.

1:06:14economy. And we will be able to direct them as we reshore these critical industries. OK, so translating that a little bit, and our friend Arnaud put it this way, quote, this is without exaggerating one of the most extraordinary things the Treasury Secretary has said. He says what he is saying is that the U.S. will now treat U.S. allies' wealth as an American sovereign wealth fund and direct them at the president's discretion how to use their money in order to build American factories and reshore American industries. As even Larry Kudlow says, he's like, what? He's like, have you run by the Senate or any of that?

1:06:47I mean, Arno and I probably have more of a difference. But because I think in terms of our trading relationship or other, I don't really see the point of being an empire if you're not going to tell your imperial outposts how exactly to pay their tribute. I would say that's part of the problem with the global American empire right now in terms of who's benefiting from it or not. But the overall problem I really have with the way that this is all being done is that it's stupid and it's not really to the benefit of anyone. Because if you take like the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund or frankly even the Saudi one or many of these others, they have been to the tremendous benefit of their actual countries and of the people who participate.

1:07:26There's a lot of democratic input. I'm not sure if you saw it. They just divested from Israel as well more recently, which was a huge deal just because it's one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world. But the point is that it's being actually used and has a lot of Democratic input by the people because they see it as a way not only to ensure their own security, their financial status, et cetera, but part of the problem for the country. We have not had any of that get put on the table. It's being used entirely by the administration and setting a precedent where, you know, if you think about it in the future, if you can just have this discretionary funding completely available, then President Biden or President Newsom or whoever is going to come next can also use it to their end, which, of course, people would freak out about, you know, by saying that these are the public dollars within the government treasury.

1:08:10That's what I would say is you're setting it up in such a capricious and a stupid way, not only setting a bad standard going forward, but you're not even accomplishing what you allegedly set out to do. Yeah, no scrutiny, no accountability. And we know the way that Donald Trump operates. It's all about, you know, what's going to be good for him and his bottom line. So, you know, don't be surprised if that wealth that's supposed to build American factories is going to his shit coin or whatever Trump hotels or some sort of deal that, you know, benefits him. or just to whatever CEO happens to be the most embarrassing and willing to humiliate themselves and grovel at his feet.

1:08:42So that will be the criteria by which those investments are judged. At the same time, we've got a few different indicators of economic turmoil. We can put this up on the screen. They say the jaws of stagflation are wide open. This is from Bloomberg. You've got employment shrinking. You've got prices paid rising. So, you know, what stagflation is when you have low growth or no growth or negative growth and you have inflation. And the reason why this is such a terrible thing to happen, I mean, first of all, it just causes a lot of pain. Second of all, it's very difficult to deal with because if you are trying to control the economy using the Fed and you hike interest rates to get the inflation under control, well, then you're going to further crush growth.

1:09:26if you lower interest rates to help to trigger growth and deal with unemployment, well, then you're going to get inflation. So that's why stagflation is such an incredible concern. And we can put the next piece up on the screen as well from Joe Weisenthal. We just got new consumer sentiment numbers, overall sentiment down, inflation expectations much higher. This comes from University of Michigan. I think this is kind of the preeminent consumer sentiment index, and it's fallen to 58.6 when it was estimated at 62, and long-term inflation expectations rising to 3.9 % when they had been estimated at 3.4%.

1:10:06And it turns out, Sagar, the public is paying attention to how they're feeling economically and to some of the legislation that has been passed by this administration. This is extraordinary. Put this next chart up on the screen, C7. Trump's support with people who are on Medicaid and, of course, Medicaid, you know, significantly cut by the, quote unquote, one big, beautiful bill has gone from being quite positive to quite negative. So you can see if you track this at the beginning of Trump's term, 52 percent of those on Medicaid approved of Trump. So he was above water, 52 percent and only 34 percent disapproved.

1:10:49Now it's completely reversed. Now you have 55 percent of those on Medicaid who disapprove and 36 percent who approve. This person tweets there. His support is down 37 points among those who are on Medicaid since his first week in office. So as Steve Bannon famously said, a lot of MAGA on Medicaid, Sager. That's exactly. I mean, you know, look, we're going to find out some of this stuff. There were a lot of contraindications going into 2022 and more. I'm really just desperate for the 2026 midterm data to see who overperforms and who doesn't, who doesn't come out to vote, overall Republican support.

1:11:26and if there are any hidden surprises. Because Medicaid right now is the number one thing that you would put your money on for the backlash. Similar to 2018, there was a lot of, you know, crediting of the resistance and stuff in 2018 for the midterms. I guess I wouldn't downplay that, but it really wasn't the driving force. If you talk to many of the Republican candidates, they all said, my vote to repeal Obamacare is what nuked me, right? That was like the story of the 2018 midterms for a lot of the anti-Trump backlash. It kind of came together. And a lot of the Republican senators, what was her name?

1:11:59McSally, I think that's what it was, down in Arizona. She was like me voting on Obamacare. She's like, that's it. Killed me. She lost by 13 points. That's right. It was a disaster. So my point is just that broadly, this could be the sleeper issue. I think it is. I think so too. I'd be willing to bet, just given some of the previous, just the way that things went with 2018 and with more. I'm still not quite sure. I guess I could, you know, how would it, what would it take for Trump and the Republicans to declare victory. It'd probably be keeping the House, which, you know, the gerrymandering and all that doesn't help.

1:12:30But the actual, like, demographic data on this and the extent to which people are either demoralized or not enthusiastic to come out to vote is going to be a very important story. The Medicaid thing is the number one thing to watch. The fact they're doing this whole thing with the maps and the census and whatever tells you they think they're - No, they're worried, of course. Yeah, they're trying to rig it as best they can to try to, you know, prevent massive losses because, listen, I mean, if Democrats have the House, the Senate is a longer shot, But if they have the House, there are things they can do, right?

1:12:57They will have subpoena power. It will be the end of, you know, of a lot of what's going on in the Trump presidency, although, you know, Trump has done a lot with just executive power without even using Congress. That's when most of what he's done. But, you know, I think they're worried about scrutiny over things like the Epstein files. They're worried about scrutiny over all these masked ICE agents and other federal agents that, you know, who have their identities completely shielded. I think there are a lot of questions, too, to be revealed about what exactly is going on there and who is doing what within some of these various agencies.

1:13:26So I think they are concerned about that. And that's why they're pulling the fire alarm.

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