8/26/26: Iran and Oman Defy Trump, Lake America, China Says Screw You

26 Aug 2026 · 54 min · 20 chapters

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In short

Iran and Oman announce a joint framework to govern/reopen the Strait of Hormuz, challenging Trump’s claim that all mines were removed. The episode also covers oil-market spillovers from Red Sea disruption, a Wall Street Journal account of warnings before the February Iran war, Trump’s Canada trade fight (including renaming Lake Ontario to “Lake America”), and China’s response to expanded U.S. sanctions on Iran. It adds a Nebraska beef import/tariff dispute and a Pentagon-linked “Data Republican” influencer fraud story.

Guests (named in transcript)

Robert Pape (professor; discusses South Korea and U.S. isolation). Dan Osborne (Nebraska candidate; discusses the beef situation). (Other named figures are discussed but not as guests: Scott Besson/Scott Besant, General Dan Cain, Tulsi Gabbard, General Cain, Pete Hegseth, Scott Jennings, etc.)

Key claims

Trump’s “mines removed” statement lacks independent confirmation; Iran can escalate despite economic pressure. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs target Trump-voting products. China will protect interests and oppose “illegal unilateral sanctions,” citing 90% of Iranian oil purchases.

Notable examples

ship-to-ship oil transfers; Financial Times reports queues/rationing in Iran; Wall Street Journal describes DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s cautions; Trump’s “Lake America” AI image; Canada’s dollar-for-dollar countertariffs; U.S. $10M bounties for IRGC leaders.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Hosts Reconnect and Preview Topics

1:04 to 1:54

Hosts discuss their recent experiences and introduce main topics.

“Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze.”

Hosts Reconnect and Preview Topics

2:37 to 3:48

Hosts discuss their recent experiences and introduce main topics.

“I believe the episode will drop sometime next week so you guys can look forward to that.”

Iran and Oman's New Deal

3:48 to 4:42

Discussion on a new deal between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

“We're going to start with Iran and Oman.”

Economic Implications of U.S. Actions

4:42 to 7:18

Exploring the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs and trade strategies.

“Man, this is one of those days I was so bummed not to be on the show.”

Military Tensions and Oil Markets

7:18 to 14:01

Analyzing the military tensions in the Middle East and their impact on oil markets.

“If you're listening to this podcast, please share an episode with a friend.”

Economic Consequences for Iran

14:01 to 14:54

Discussing the economic impact of oil prices and blockades on Iran.

“It's all uninsured, too, completely uninsured.”

Iran's Strategic Escalation

14:56 to 15:46

Exploring Iran's ability to escalate conflict and respond to pressures.

“Qatar's LNG has down 96 percent in the last six months.”

U.S. and Iran: The Standoff

15:49 to 18:18

Analyzing the current standoff between the U.S. and Iran amidst escalating tensions.

“Yeah, I'm glad you picked up on that because that that seems to be the piece that both U.S.”

Claims of Victory Over Iran

18:19 to 20:00

Debating the claims of victory that the U.S. has achieved over Iran.

“We're marshalling this international coalition.”

Claims of Victory Over Iran

20:24 to 21:43

Debating the claims of victory that the U.S. has achieved over Iran.

“Are you looking for a beach read this summer?”
Show all 20 chapters

Military Decisions and Consequences

21:49 to 28:00

Discussing military decisions made during Trump's administration regarding Iran.

“Let's put this one up here on the screen.”

US Intelligence and Iranian Leadership Bounties

28:00 to 30:50

Discussing US bounties on Iranian leaders and the implications for intelligence and warfare.

“bit over the top, but, you know, and certainly there are going to be some problems, but we got this.”

Canada's Response to US Trade Policies

32:19 to 41:07

Analyzing Canada's counter-tariffs in response to US trade measures and its economic implications.

“President Donald Trump has come back with the ultimate rebuttal in his trade war with Canada.”

The Impact of Tariffs on Auto Manufacturing

41:08 to 42:09

Exploring how tariffs affect auto manufacturing and the relationships between the US and Canada.

“It would be sort of like— I don't know if it will here.”

Trade Negotiations and U.S. Tariffs

42:09 to 44:28

Explore the inefficacy of ad hoc tariff strategies compared to structured negotiations.

“If you were going to redesign the system, you would renegotiate it.”

Canada's Trade Dynamics

44:28 to 47:05

Discuss how trade relations between the U.S. and Canada can lead to chaos and higher prices.

“We can all start looking at maps and why Gulf of Mexico is actually a Spanish colonial name.”

Canada's Trade Dynamics

47:08 to 47:33

Discuss how trade relations between the U.S. and Canada can lead to chaos and higher prices.

“The Summer Savings Event is here at Apple Vacations.”

China's Response to U.S. Sanctions

47:59 to 54:47

Understanding China's strategic positioning amidst U.S. sanctions on Iran.

“announced plans to widen economic sanctions against Iran and its trading partners.”

China's Financial Mechanisms

54:47 to 56:01

Explore China's alternative banking systems to mitigate U.S. sanctions.

“dollars but is building a hedge against Washington sanctions.”

China's Economic Strategy and Oil Dynamics

56:01 to 1:01:12

Explore how China's economic strategies are impacting global oil prices and U.S. relations.

“And they built an alternative pathway to do deals with Russia and with any other country that America doesn't want it to do.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Thinking about selling your car? Start with a real offer worth real money from CarMax. Then take seven days to compare your offer, and when you're ready, accept your offer and get paid. CarMax will even pick up your car. That's it. No haggling, no hassles, no pressure. Just a real offer worth real money from CarMax. Get all the details in a real offer today at CarMax.com. Want to drive? CarMax. At-home pickup not available in all locations. Distance restrictions and a fee may apply. My name is Arnold Bogarty, and prior to me enrolling in Rasmussen to become a nurse, I spent 16 years in the military, 12 in Special Forces as an Army Green Beret, and I was recommended to Rasmussen by a former student.

0:46She said she loved the culture. It was a family atmosphere. I went to visit the campus. The facilities were amazing. I knew before I left that that was the school that I was going to attend. Rasmussen University. Are you ready to be your own hero? Online and on campus. Learn more at rasmussen.edu. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Bahamar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, the richly refined Rosewood, the playfully hip SLS, and the stylishly modern Grand Hyatt. With over 45 restaurants, bars, and lounges, Baja Mar serves up delicious dining from world-renowned chefs like Daniel Bouloud and Marcus Samuelson, nightlife venues like the new Jean Batiste Jazz Club, and the Caribbean's most luxurious casino.

1:37At Baja Mar, you'll find every pleasure under the sun and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like Baja Bay, our 15-acre lush tropical water park, interactive wildlife experiences, including our daily flamingo parade, world-class golf, tennis, spa, and so much more. Visit Bahamar.com today and discover a vacation destination where memories are made for a lifetime. Bahamar. Life spectacular. Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here. Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, and we are so excited about what that means for the future of this show. This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

2:18So if that is something that's important to you, please go to BreakingPoints.com, Become a member today and you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of independent news media, and we hope to see you at BreakingPoints.com.

2:37Good morning, everybody. Happy Wednesday. I missed you guys so much. Bro Show. People live for the pound. Thank you for having me, Ryan. It is a Wednesday. It feels a little different. Yeah, welcome to CounterPoints. I'm happy to be here. I'm happy to be here. It was great to be in Maine. I did the Tucker Carlson show. I believe the episode will drop sometime next week so you guys can look forward to that. We are going to start with Iran and Iran and Oman. Wait, we've got a month free of counterpoints. Oh, wait. What do you mean by that? And if you sign up for it, you get breaking points. Oh, I see.

3:07I forgot. I see. Usually I set the show up and then we do the pitch. But if you guys want to go first. Right into the pitch. You tell me what you want to do. No, right into the pitch. Okay, put the pitch up there on the screen. Ryan, you deliver it. You deliver it because people are sick of hearing it from me. Breakingpoints.com. Yeah. Get the show for free for a month. Love it so much you can't cancel it. Right. Or you forget to cancel it, and then you're a premium member, and you get to ask Sagar any question you want. That's right. You get to ask us anything. I watched a little bit of your guys' AMA.

3:38I really enjoyed it. So thank you for doing that. Yeah, you don't want to miss out on those. No, they're great. They actually are genuinely fantastic. So with that, go ahead. We're way too honest. And sign up. All right. Now, what are we starting with? Iran. We're going to start with Iran and Oman. They are now announcing a new deal to govern the Strait of Hormuz. This comes as Trump claims that all mines have been taken out of the strait. There's some interesting stuff going on with oil markets, in addition to a long new reported piece from the Wall Street Journal about the warnings that Trump received in the situation room that basically laid out exactly what was going to happen, and he did it anyway.

4:12Also, some major egg on the face, not just for Pete Hexhead, who we always knew. was an idiot. But for General Dan Cain, who really tried to whitewash a lot of his reputation, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff ahead of time, and this does show how much culpability he has in this disaster. We're going to talk about Canada. Trump is now saying he's going to rename Lake Ontario, Lake America, as Canada has retaliated with a 50 % new tariff. I'm going to show you some of the economic fallout from that situation. China is now hitting back at Scott Besant's threat of an economic D-Day. Man, this is one of those days I was so bummed not to be on the show.

4:48I mean, just to ridicule the D-Day. I mean, just to imagine General Eisenhower being like, Germany, I'm going to invade you. I might. Don't make me do it. Right. Don't make me invade you. And then the press goes, but why don't you just do it? And he goes, well, why would I want to take casualties? Yeah. Yeah, why would you? All right. Have you seen Saving Private Ryan? It's going to be awful. Anyway, Robert Pape, the professor, the great professor, is going to join us not to talk about Iran, but actually talk about South Korea, another area of expertise of his as Donald Trump continues to marginalize and to isolate South Korea.

5:23A South Korean public opinion flips against the United States for the first time in its entire modern history. Also, pet story here. I hope we have time for it and we don't get lost in the sauce. Influencers, I'm obsessed with this story. There's this woman who is on Twitter. Her name is Data Republican. and she's like, you know, major Trump, I guess, influencer. I'll leave it at that. She's like a not as smart Nick Shirley. Right, right, yeah, which is saying something in terms of spelling. Anyway, so she has been outposting for years, you know, behind her moniker, is revealing fraud and all this other stuff, also happens to be pro-Zinus.

6:00Well, it turns out not only did she screw up a monumental story, which they tried to hand her a leak, but through the revelation, She is a working as an employee for the Pentagon. And so, I mean, can you imagine like some anonymous leftist influencer with a million followers under Biden who it turns out is literally working for the government? Payroll. Never mind. Bonkers. Absolutely crazy. Finally, Dan Osborne is going to join us, the candidate in Nebraska, to talk about this beef situation. There's a very sketchy announcement where Donald Trump said we're going to import millions of pounds of beef.

6:40And then these beef producers have agreed to sell it 25 percent below market price. Nobody knows where the beef is coming from. He literally won't say they're covering it up, losing their minds. Ranchers and Midwestern senators, GOP, people are losing it. All of these people are getting destroyed by two separate things. The price of diesel and fertilizer on top of the tariffs. So they are getting absolutely nuked on the bottom line. And to have the government basically bring in a bunch of foreign beef, undercut the entire market, I mean, this could literally be the death knell of the ranching industry.

7:14So that's all of it. Finally, we did our pitch already. So I don't have to do it. If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. If you're listening to this podcast, please share an episode with a friend. All right. Let's go ahead and start with Iran. As you said, A1, let's put it up here on the screen. This was by far the biggest news that came out yesterday. So on the left, this is from the foreign minister of Oman. Here he says,

8:00statement that they pulled out. Let's look at this very carefully. The proposed framework, this is a translation from Farsi, includes creating a temporary joint operation through the Strait of Hormuz for the purpose of implementing a joint corridor through the Strait with the goal of managing a single corridor for the permanent and future management of the Strait, as well as providing mechanisms for information exchange, traffic management, and security-related services. In other words, this is a single, unified corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, guaranteed by Iran and Oman. It has nothing to do with the United States.

8:35The United States had nothing to do with brokering this agreement. This agreement, as you can read between the lines, will include management fees and environmental fees, security-related expenses, perhaps, in which Iran would be able to charge some sort of a toll. It comes immediately after this new announcement from Donald Trump. Let's put it up here on the screen. He claims, quote, I have just been informed by the United States Navy. All mines have been removed and or detonated from within the international waters of the strait. Iran has been notified any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed.

9:12Through Space Force, we are watching every square inch of the strait, as we are also with Pickaxe Mountain and the already destroyed three other nuclear sites. There is a zero-tolerance policy on mine placement in full force and effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter. It will shock you, absolutely shock you to learn no independent analysis has been able to confirm, Ryan, that all the mines have been removed through the strait. Basically, it's a battle of propaganda over who controls the actual strait reformers. Yeah, and this comes after the Trump administration said that if Oman cooperates with Iran, he will, quote, bomb the hell out of them.

9:45No, bomb the shit out of them. Oh, sorry. My fault. These are actually important distinctions. Yes. Oman, what Oman is signaling here is that they understand who's a more important player in the region and who's going to be there longer. Spoiler, it's the country that has been there for thousands of years. Yes. That is going to continue to be there, surrounded by mountains. And while it is the one on the other side of the ocean that has 15 of its bases in ashes, that is less likely to be there for that long. So Oman is like, you're really going to bomb the shit out of us? I'm not so sure about that.

10:22This also comes, interestingly, think about this. We spent Monday and Tuesday talking about how Scott Besson is planning to launch D-Day on any country that does any business whatsoever with Iran. Oman, our ally, responds by jointly releasing a plan to reopen the strait together with Iran. Right. Right. It's like people are watching Scott Besson in amusement and a little bit of kind of concern and horror. Like what and is he OK? Like that's the kind of I think the driving concern when people are watching Besson at that press conference. Like what's like I don't is he going to survive this just physically?

11:07And then they're like, OK, anyway, back to the business of negotiating with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, so they're going to let oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. And they've said they're not interested in a nuclear weapon. We'll end the program. Like they've said that for days, for months, for weeks, for years. So everything that we could ask for, except the fact that it's embarrassing because they and Oman will collectively run it. Meanwhile, there is the U.S. seems to think they have some time on their hand. We can put up a three. This is oil analyst Roy Johnson analyzing some of the new information coming out, showing that directionally the U.S.

11:47claims that there's a little bit more oil coming through. Seems to be true. Straight up from Moose. The absolute number that they're claiming is a bit preposterous. Right. But directionally, as Johnson is saying here, it's in that right direction. The problem is the Red Sea has collapsed because the Houthis have effectively shut down particularly Saudi ships. And in the beginning of this several months of this war, the Saudis were able to move a lot through the pipeline and through the Red Sea and through the western coast. And that was keeping things. Right. And actually, just to underscore your point, put A4 up here on the screen to show the damage that they're continuing to take in the Red Sea.

12:32This happened yesterday. So there was a direct hit at sea, a projectile that was fired from more than 1 ,000 kilometers away. As you can see, the Yemenis, as this OSINT account is saying, are improving their skills. I mean, this takes serious effort. It's a moving ship. Right. It's a moving target. It's 1 ,000-kilometer shot. The amount of GP at navigation, technology involved. Remember, you have the full force of the empire against you. You've been bombed. You've been bombed by the Saudis. You've been taking hits in caves for the last 10 years. You've proven that you've been able to clip an F-35 to survive the onslaught of the Biden administration, of the Trump administration, of the Saudi regime.

13:09And on top of that, you're still able to hit a direct target 1 ,000 kilometers away and to menace the global oil market. So I'm curious for your reaction. me reading this, this makes the situation 10 times more dangerous because what is Iran seeing? As Rory has shown through his independent analysis, Gulf loadings are now roughly 7 to 10 million barrels per day. That is 50 % of pre-Hormuz or pre-Iran war Hormuz traffic. They're learning. Predominantly the way, and even though it's not just about oil, this is what I also want to emphasize, the way they're doing it is still really expensive. They're called ship-to-ship transfers where they load it up onto one ship.

13:50And then they take a little ship and put it on another ship. And then they run the blockade. It's kind of like Confederate blockade runners on these tiny little ships. And then they get to the big ship, which is raiding outside the strait. And then they put the oil back on. This is super expensive. It's all uninsured, too, completely uninsured. It's backed by the Gulf nations, which are paying for all of this. So it's 10 times more expensive to do business this way than normal. But some oil is beginning to leak out just because the price is so damn high, especially with diesel. So there is an economic incentive for this to continue.

14:21As the United States and the Gulf allies are able to prove that they are able to get some oil out of the strait, and if Iran and Oman are going to say, hey, we manage the strait, in my opinion, this escalates the situation to a dire consequence for Tehran. Because Tehran is in a situation now where they're beginning to feel the economic blockade. Yesterday, the Financial Times, which has an actual correspondent in Tehran, is saying that there are lines, queues to get petrol, gasoline, that there's beginning to be significant amounts of rationing throughout the state. They can only sit there and take this for so long.

14:55And they still have the ability to horizontally escalate. I was reading this morning. Qatar's LNG has down 96 percent in the last six months. $24 billion in revenue that they had to give up. What's worse for them is that the United States is the one that's backfilling all of this LNG. I also read this morning that European gas inventory is very, very low. So the amount that we're all going to be paying for electricity this winter, it's not going to be good. So all of this right now is in a situation where you're Iran, you're being slowly suffocated to death. You have the ability to lash out. I've talked about the Germans in 1916, unrestricted submarine warfare.

15:38They didn't want to press the button, but ultimately they felt like they had to. They said, we're going to die. We're going to be strangled, literally. So what do you do? You use the last thing in your arsenal, and Iran still has that ability. That's why I think that as we see more oil begin to flow through the strait, it makes escalation more likely on their part because it's the only thing they have left in their quiver. Yeah, I'm glad you picked up on that because that that seems to be the piece that both U.S. policymakers and also the American media seems to be missing that. And also some kind of Iranian, I don't want to call them supporters or whatever, like they're they're missing the fact that Iran has been able to, you know, basically annihilate all the American bases.

16:21They've been able to withstand the punishment, the punishing attack from the U.S. they've been able to inflict real damage, not just militarily on the U.S., but also economically. But those things by themselves, to your point, are not enough to, quote unquote, win the war. Like you can't force the president to abide by the MOU. You were able to pressure him into an MOU, but then as he was feeling shame or whatever, he felt comfortable walking away from it. And to your point, yes, Iran probably doesn't have years of this. Now, does the U.S. have years of it? Politically speaking, can we keep that going?

17:12Who knows? The point is Iran does have the capacity to escalate this. And Iran has kept signaling over the past couple of weeks. They keep saying, we are still at war. We do not have a ceasefire with the United States. We consider this blockade and this D-Day from Besson, we consider these to be acts of war. And we reserve the right to respond violently. And I think that's the real question. Do they do that? And have we, through our many decapitations, put enough hardliners in place that the ones arguing for that are going to do it? And if they do it, what does that look like? More attacks on American bases, attacks on Gulf infrastructure or attacks on Israel?

18:03Like we don't we don't know exactly. Or do they start hitting some of these shuttle boats and shut down the shuttle trade? We don't know. But you're right that the pressure is on them. Yes. The ball's in their court. Obviously, the more that there's no major munitions flying, it's actually on the side of the United States because we're not expending our munitions. We're sitting there. We're marshalling this international coalition. The Gulf guys, they desperately want their oil out of there. They need to make money. And so for them, basically, the gamble that they're making is that they're just going to sit there and they're going to take it.

18:38And, I mean, no country on earth is just going to sit there and take it. By the way, meanwhile, in terms of the messaging that's going out, we just want to give you a taste of potentially our next White House press secretary, Scott Jennings, talking about how all of the shows we won the war. Let's take a listen. And I believe this announcement may confirm something that many in our political class refuse to acknowledge. The United States has won the war against Iran. Wars are won when one side achieves its strategic objectives and the other loses the ability to achieve its own. Iran entered this war with four great pillars of strength, its nuclear program, its missiles and drones, its regional terror network, and its ability to hold the world economy hostage through the Strait of Hormuz.

19:26Every one of those pillars has been severely damaged or outright destroyed. Severely damaged or outright destroyed, as we just did an entire segment about how even our victory six months into the war is that the Gulf Arab allies driven by desperation to fund their countries are able to get roughly 40 to 50 percent of their oil traffic out of the strait. Yeah. Doesn't look like victory to me. My name is Tuba Nguyen. And enrolling at Rasmussen University was essentially a handshake to a lifeline. a career, stability, and a future for myself. I found it important to be able to speak with instructors and staff outside of office hours and to have that support system was essential because they believed in me.

20:13Rasmussen University. Are you ready to rewrite your story online and on campus? Learn more at rasmussen.edu. Hi, Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. Are you looking for a beach read this summer? May I suggest your big wireless bill? It's got suspense, mystery, a slightly flat emotional arc, and a shocking twist where you realize you've been overpaying the entire time. Fortunately, though, Mint's story is better. Every plan,$15 a month, even unlimited. That's it. Happy ending. Zero tears. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three months,$90 for six months, or$180 for 12-month plan required.

20:49$15 per month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. Initial plan term only greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Bahamar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels. The richly refined Rosewood, the playfully hip SLS, and the stylishly modern Grand Hyatt. With over 45 restaurants, bars, and lounges, Bahamar serves up delicious dining from world-renowned chefs like Daniel Bolloud and Marcus Samuelson. nightlife venues like the new Jean Batiste Jazz Club, and the Caribbean's most luxurious casino.

21:26At Baja Mar, you'll find every pleasure under the sun and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like Baja Bay, our 15-acre lush tropical water park, interactive wildlife experiences, including our daily flamingo parade, world-class golf, tennis, spa, and so much more. Visit BajaMar.com today and discover a vacation destination where memories are made for a lifetime. Bahamar. Life spectacular. Which leads us to our next part. Let's put this one up here on the screen. This is from the Wall Street Journal, one of the longer retrospectives that they're doing. The warnings that came before a war now reaching the six-month mark.

22:08And I believe we will hit that mark two days from now on Friday. February 28th is when the entire thing kicked off. Here's what they say. Days before going to war with Iran in February, President Trump summoned his intelligence chief to the Oval Office to ask whether a full-on assault was a good idea. Iran was at its weakest point in decades. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had told him, providing Trump the rare opportunity to dismantle the nuclear program and thus bolster his legacy as a peacemaker. Then Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard outlined assessments from America's intelligence apparatus.

22:42She told Trump, quote, killing Iran's supreme leader would usher in a more hardline regime open to acquiring nuclear weapons. True. Tehran would rush to close the Strait of Hormuz. True. Destabilizing the global energy market. True. And it would force U.S. forces and partners, strike U.S. forces and partners in the Middle East, prompting questions about American resolve and reliability with allies. True. The notes of caution echoed warnings Trump was receiving from all corners. Trump top military officials had told the president a war would lead to casualties and major concerns about weapons stockpiles and readiness problems for an overstretched force.

23:20And then Trump decided to order that attack on February 28th. What's even more interesting actually here are what they talk about with General Cain. And so this is where I want to reserve my most smoke for. Good. OK. All of the Hegs, you know, Tulsi. All right. I mean, you did your job. I see Reid's dropped. Trump's like news. Right. Yeah, watches maybe. I mean, who even knows? But OK, you did your job. You spoke truth to power. You didn't do shit else about it. And you left and still apparently had good terms. So whatever. J.D. allegedly in the situation room was the only person who said, I really don't think you should do this.

23:58But if you do, I guess I have to back you. Those are the two only two people who actually said anything even remotely against it. Tucker Carlson, again, was in the Oval and he was like, I really don't think you should do this. And Trump said, what did he say? He said it always works out. Why do you think it's going to work out? Because it always does. It always does. Okay. But here's what General Cain, and the reason, again, I'm going to reserve all my smoke for General Cain, Hegstead, all these other people, they're all ultimately they're in politics. Cain, by acts of Congress, his only job, he doesn't actually command any forces.

24:28His only job is to provide unbiased military opinion to the president of the United States. That is literally his constitutionally mandated role as described by Congress. Here's what they say. General Cain and Admiral Cooper had briefed the president several times on plans to strike targets, etc. However, despite the warnings, Hegseth and Cain replied on multiple occasions they would navigate any complications and that they would be able to deliver the victory that Trump had promised. And so, again, it's one thing for the sectev to say it. We all know he's an idiot. Sure. But Cain, backing up the Secretary of Defense, not providing unbiased information.

25:12And remember, too, there was all kinds of a psyop that was happening in the immediate days of the war. They're like, oh, Cain told him not to do it. No, he didn't. And actually, I even reported some of that at the time. I said, no, he didn't. He was very muted in what he said. And now what they're what they're even saying is that in reality, what he really did is that he provided a lot of the cover to Secretary Hegset and to Donald Trump's mind as to why actually it was all going to work out. OK, so if you want to say, you know, for recriminations, when the time comes, Cain needs to be up there very, very high on the list.

Read the full transcript

25:45I mean, he needs to go up there in infamy with General Taylor from Vietnam, with any of the other, you know, genuinely like any of the chairmen of the Joint Chiefs. Ironically enough, H.R. McMaster, who was Trump's national security advisor, first term, wrote a whole book about it, which is actually quite good, about how the entire chairman staff failed Johnson on Vietnam and never told him any of the truth. And Cain, who I know has read the book because it's like required reading in military cycles, comes out and repeats the entire thing. Total sycophant. And the one regret I have about the fact that we never got the kind of parade of lies to push us into the war that we got with Iraq is that because of that, we don't have many or almost any public records from these people of where they stood before the war.

26:35Like with Wolfowitz, for instance, we know that he said it would be a cakewalk because he said it in front of Congress with the cameras rolling. So that gets to live in infamy. And it bought us this 20 years of being like, well, let's not start any new wars. It didn't it didn't end the forever wars, but at least it took until Trump to, like, start another giant war. We don't have any clips of Cain talking publicly. All we have is reporting from The Times, reporting from The Journal. You're reporting that and his own spin at the time of saying, no, I was I said a lot about, you know, the material limitations of our capacity at the moment and that, you know, Trump should be concerned.

27:21That was the thing that Cain's people were trying to spin in the media that, no, he said, we got to be careful about our stocks and munitions. It's, you know, we're not sure that we really have everything in the barrel that we're going to need to do this. When behind closed doors, talking to this guy who was, you know, really itching to do this. He's saying, we got you, boss. Don't worry about the naysayers. These same naysayers who told you that you couldn't swoop in and grab Maduro and his wife in the middle of the night, and you went and did it, sir. You know, we are going to make sure that, okay, yeah, maybe what Netanyahu is saying is a little bit over the top, but, you know, and certainly there are going to be some problems, but we got this.

28:06It's the greatest military in the world, sir. Exactly. And, you know, at the same time, just to show you kind of where things are, let's put the next one up here on the screen. It appears now that the U.S. State Department is basically offering$10 million. This is very war on terror-esque, offering$10 million bounties for information on key IRGC leaders, including the new supreme leader. And so they basically have a list here of all of the top leaders from the IRGC and of Iran saying, hey, anybody will pay you$10 million to give us information. The reason why I'm putting these two things together is they are now offering$10 million of bounty for information, obviously for potential assassination purposes, because all of these people are now in power because of the operation.

28:54It fulfills the exact promise or the exact prediction that was made apparently by the U.S. intelligence community. You and I have a lot of smoke for the intelligence community. But even they apparently were like, wow, the Israelis are just black blanket liars whenever it comes to their prescriptions about how this entire thing is going to go. And we cover the day to day over and over again. But the how we got here is vitally important because every single one of these people is still in power. Tulsi aside, I mean, the new DNI is equally as much of an idiot and sycophant. General Cain is still running the war.

29:26Secretary Hegseth is still running the war. I mean, all of these people, they're horrible judgment. And if anything, as we've seen many times in history, they only have even more of an incentive to double down on their previously bad advice to cover up how much of a disaster it's been. And five of these 14, we don't even have photos of. In the pictures, it's like what an incredible collapse of our intelligence and our ability to have any eyes on the ground inside of Iran, a country of 90 million people. 100 million people. With like six to seven major ethnicities, which makes it much more able to be penetrated, where the Israelis are everywhere.

30:04Like they're not sharing the Facebook photos that they have of these guys. And of the 14th, there's a bunch of gray-bearded bureaucrats. You think they don't have gray-bearded bureaucrats who can take their place if we go in and assassinate them? We're going to assassinate Mojitaba coming in? Yeah, well, no. Apparently, the new cope is that he's actually dead. Then take him off the list. Whether he's dead or not, the people who are running the country in his name, they seem to have a hell of a better idea on how to do it than his father did. Or our folks do. Him being dead or brain dead is probably the best case scenario for all of you.

30:39Just be a convenient figurehead and they can run the country in his name. Likely, almost certainly to continue now for many, many years. Okay, let's get to the next 200 years. He certainly will. All right, let's get to Canada. I have been with Rasmussen University since 2013, all virtual. All of my professors throughout the entire journey have been nothing but supportive of making me reach my dreams. Rasmussen professors, they want to see you grow so that you can be what you went to school to be. I'm so thankful for Rasmussen University for being able to make it so easy and seamless. Rasmussen University.

31:18Find your seat and start now at rasmussen.edu. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Baja Mar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues, John Batiste's all-new jazz club, the Caribbean's most luxurious casino, and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like our 15-acre tropical water park, wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course, and so much more. Visit Baja Mar.com today. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. The Summer Savings Event is here at Apple Vacations.

31:58It's the perfect time to bring everyone together for the getaway you've been dreaming about. Book between July 24th and August 27th and enjoy up to 55 % instant savings. From relaxing beach days to unforgettable moments with the people who matter most, your next vacation starts here. Travel through July 31st, 2027. Start your vacation today at AppleVacations.com or through your travel advisor. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. President Donald Trump has come back with the ultimate rebuttal in his trade war with Canada. He's going to rename Lake Ontario Lake America. Look out. In any event, here we have the Canadian Minister of Finance.

32:40I love this. Francois-Philippe Champagne with what the Canadian response to the US trade war is going to be. On August 22nd, the United States of America imposed tariffs on 50 % on approximately$28 billion in Canadian goods. Those tariffs will have real consequences for Canadian workers, businesses, and communities across our nation. Canada must respond, And today we are in a proportionate, targeted and strategic way. Today I'm announcing that Canada will match the United States tariffs dollar for dollar, rate for rate. Effective September 8th, Canada will impose counter tariffs of up to 15, 25 or 50 percent on 27.6 billion in imports from the United States of America.

33:41For each product, our tariff would match the American tariff on the same type of Canadian good. And the Canadians said that they're trying to target with precision states that voted for Trump. And so if you live in one of those states, they're going after particular products made in those states because they know they don't have the capacity to kind of break the back or break the economy of the entire United States because they're not big enough. but they can make things very difficult for particular towns and cities in states that voted for Trump. Trump, however, has got your back, and here's how he's going to do it.

34:18Put up B1 here, Donald Trump on Truth Social. The United States is giving serious consideration to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America in that we don't expect to be doing much business with Ontario any longer. Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump. And of course, he also posted a little image, a little AI rendition where he X's out Lake Ontario and replaces it with Lake America. Now, with B3, we can roll through some of the specifics here. So, Canada is talking about, so Trump is saying that he's going to move tariffs on Canadian vehicles up to 50%.

35:02So Canada has come back and saying, OK, well, then we're going to we're going to push tariffs on Canadian vehicles back up to 50 percent. It's a it's a kind of a crisis situation where you have the auto workers in both states and the United Auto Workers represent auto workers in Canada and the U.S. And you have the auto executives begging him not to do this. So the industry that he's fighting for is pleading with him not to do this. He's saying he's going to do it anyway before Honda, which I think like what? Five of their five, like five of the American made five of the top ten like vehicles.

35:47It's one of the top sellers in the United States. And made in the United States, too, and made in North America. Many of them are made in America. They invested very heavily in creating supply chains and factories in the U.S. and Canada. Not out of the goodness of their heart, by the way. Because we forced them to do so. We forced them to do so. We forced them to do it. And so they're saying we might have to raise prices because their supply chains run back and forth across the border. Right. I can explain this, actually. This is part of it. First of all, I just want to say at the top. Obviously, and this is, look, Canadians, you're going to get mad.

36:19But it is actually true. NAFTA was a disaster for us. It wasn't for you. It worked out real well for you. A lot of our manufacturing plants in Detroit and throughout the United States moved to Canada and to Mexico, either for labor arbitrage purposes or for various other access to resources. I get it. I don't blame a multinational for doing that, for taking advantage. But it did not work out for our working class. The way that the cars are made right now is basically NAFTA plus USMCA, which means that many of these cars, and this is what Honda is talking about, the parts in the car in some cases can move across the border.

36:52up to 10 to 15 times. I'm exaggerating. It may not always be that much, but various different types of the car, once it's finally assembled in the United States, there are parts in it that come from all over the world, but particularly move back and forth for machine purposes, manufacturing purposes that eventually make their way into the Honda vehicle, which you eventually purchase in the United States. Honda does this because that's the way that NAFTA and USMCA set out the law. They said there won't be any tariffs that are on those. Again, I don't support this system. I don't think it should be that way, but it is what it is at this point.

37:24So then when the tariff comes into effect, what ends up happening with the way that Trump is doing it is it would increase the cost every time that thing moves across the border. That's why the car manufacturers are freaking out because that would raise the imminent cost of them. If you had to pay that cost even once, imagine 10 times, that explodes the cost of the increment on the actual part. Also, from what I understand, the car makers know the shit's not actually going to last. So most of the time, they'll just keep it in Canada. They're like, look, we're just going to wait for the taco and then we'll move it across the border that time.

37:59But obviously, what does that do? Now, production has to shut down. Now you're going to meet quotas. It causes all kinds of insanity whenever it comes to the vehicle tariff. I mean, even right now, Trump said he was going to double the tariff to 50 % whenever it comes to the Civic sedan, for example. Honda currently assembles the Civic in Canada. It's the second largest vehicle manufacturer by volume. And so a lot of that is eventually sold here in the United States. Again, I don't want to give the Canadians too much credit because when, and this has happened under Biden, so this isn't just TDS or anything.

38:34Under Biden, you can go and read the headlines. There were all of these made in America provisions for the EV manufacturing credits. The Canadians were lobbying the hell out of the government. They're like, how can you do this to us? You can't just make it in your country. Like, you need to make it in an hour. And we're like, no, we want to make it in our country. The Canadians were furious with Biden, and even more so under Donald Trump. So this is kind of a years-long story. Same thing happened in Europe. I get it. They're looking out for their interests. I think we should look out for ours.

39:03Now, is this the way I would handle our relationship with Canada? No. As I said, I don't have any great love for Canada. But what we can see here is even if you were to support this in a vacuum, which is true, Canada needs us a lot more than we need them. We still need them. Top major top trading partner to launch this at a time of massive inflation and to do it in such a manner where the Canadian population is much better positioned to absorb the price increase. Put this up here while I'm talking about it is that their population is 100 percent united. They're like a war footing. They don't care.

39:41Yeah. They're like, all right, we're going to pay more for Tim Hortons. We'll eat grass. Yeah, yeah, yeah. As long as you agree. It was like, so be it. We'll sit there and we're going to take it. Are we going to sit there? And are we going to take it? While you're paying, what's the gas price today? Let me check. $4.10 on average per gasoline? That's like, well, we're sitting here paying high gas, high grocery, and all this other stuff. They obviously have their own problems, but we're the aggressor. And if we're going to be the aggressor, the whole population has to be on our side. Nobody's on there.

40:12They don't care about this at this time. Again, in a vacuum, sure, whatever. You can make a case, et cetera. Even then, you wouldn't probably want to do like a back and forth type of trade war on again, off again, be extremely incendiary. And what you're watching effectively is that the Canadian government right and left is totally united against the United States. I mean Doug Ford is like a national hero in Canada for all of this like kiss my ass stuff. And what you're watching is on our side, nobody wants to pay any of these higher tariffs, also because they don't even think it's going to be paired with a bigger manufacturing push, which now we've had the tariffs for over a year.

40:51We know it's not leading to that, especially because of downward pressure from the overall economy. The diesel price plus the tariff, a lot of these manufacturers are dead in the United States if this continues. And it's also a bit of a sideshow given that electric vehicles in the next decade or whatever are going to sweep the entire country. It would be sort of like— I don't know if it will here. I think that they'll put so much protectionism on gas that— Maybe. Also, look, I've got to save my smoke for the American consumer. Dodge was out here bragging about the Dodge Ram being the number one seller in the country.

41:25There are guys out there taking out 9 % interest car loans over 48 months, buying$80 ,000 souped-up trucks for literally no reason. And so there is a part of that in the American heart which will never go away. Maybe that's right. Right. I look at it as like two different countries competing over the manufacturing of horse and buggies in like 1905. It's a fair point. I mean, gas is always going to be part of our market. Maybe I'm wrong. And you're right that just the construction of our lives and the suburban nature of it and the cultural attachment to the gas guzzlers is going to override pure economics.

42:09We'll see. But you're right. If you were going to redesign the system, you would renegotiate it. Like sit down. Trump had the USMCA that he agreed to. like if if he wanted a different trade policy the massive trade negotiation that was underway was like the place to do it uh this this like ad hoc scattershot tariff war that he likes to do is yeah like because they don't expect it to stick it doesn't have the effect you're right that the reason that honda is here is because of u.s tariffs and because of u.s trade policy And also just enormous amounts of kind of it bordered into xenophobic anti-Japanese.

42:57Right. So the game that everybody knows about the Japanese. But it was long. It was a long game. Right. And so what happened is post 1970s after the, you know, actually Trump was all over Oprah talking about how bad Japan was. I had a point actually at the time because of the undercutting of our market. it. The deal the Japanese made throughout the 80s and 90s, especially post-NAFTA, is we were like, look, we know everybody wants your cars. They're cheaper. They're better than ours. You just got to build them here. The Japanese are like, we don't really want to, but I guess. All right, we'll do it.

43:26And so what I've heard from more recently is inside Japan, their belief is that they would have been better off in the long run just making them Japan and shipping and paying the tariff. They're sick of building here. They hate American work culture. They hate most of the states um i'm dead serious i hate american work culture they hate the government they're they're they think they would have been better off right just building the cars in japan and paying whatever the variable tariff and what have been for deal with these american workers deal with all this bullshit and the state of michigan government right because in japan when the ceo of honda needs something the japanese prime minister is like what do you need all right here you go they're like oh you want 100 billion here's 200 you know make sure that it works out it's not how works here, right?

44:13So basically, look, the TLDR is that while I do think we have major structural problems in our trade with Canada, the way that this has been done, especially the Lake America, I'm like, my God, do you have any original ideas? Sure, it was funny on the first day, Gulf of America and all that. We can all start looking at maps and why Gulf of Mexico is actually a Spanish colonial name. It's actually quite woke to rename it Gulf of America. I support that. It actually is. Yeah, yeah. It's like, why should we be using a Spanish colonial name? But in reality, we all know, number one, this is not going to lead to a better deal.

44:46It will lead to chaos. It will lead to higher prices. It will also lead to worsening relations with Canada, which maybe we could have afforded pre-Iran war. I don't think we could right now with our top trading partner. It's part of a global isolation game. I will say, though, with Canada, you know, it's their their population wants to fight. But remember, Mark Carney gave that whole speech about neoliberalism and and the standing up in the window. Yeah. He's like, we're going to change everything. And then immediately came back and backed Trump on the Iran war and and, you know, became like this NATO, you know, obsessive.

45:23So they need to make up their mind, too. Like, what are you guys going to do? I think we have to live together and we got to work it out. But look, that's not really what either of them. That's maybe what our population wants. I'm not so sure that's what they want. And meanwhile, China is like playing a lot of footsie with Canada. Totally. They have very different rules in Canada. A lot of their Teslas have much more Chinese components from Giga Shanghai. I think maybe 10 % or so. A lot of them are not even allowed to be sold here in the United States. So they have very different rules and relations with China and kind of their engagement with the rest of the world.

45:56So they're doing a balancing act, which they didn't previously used to have to do. They're mostly on the side of the United States. It's certainly not like that anymore. Speaking of China, let's get to China. I think something that makes me well-studded to be a nurse is my empathy. Growing up with a big family, I think I've always kind of been a caregiver. When you care give, you get to know the family and the patient, and you get really close. And Rasmussen University, they did a very, very good job of giving us the resources that we need. So just being able to apply the knowledge that I've retained to my daily life has been so amazing.

46:32Learn more at rasmussen.edu. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Bahamar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues, John Batiste's all-new jazz club, the Caribbean's most luxurious casino, and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like our 15-acre tropical water park, wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course, and so much more. Visit Bahamar.com today. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. The Summer Savings Event is here at Apple Vacations.

47:13It's the perfect time to bring everyone together for the getaway you've been dreaming about. Book between July 24th and August 27th and enjoy up to 55 % instant savings. From relaxing beach days to unforgettable moments with the people who matter most, your next vacation starts here. Travel through July 31st, 2027. Start your vacation today at AppleVacations.com or through your travel advisor. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. Okay, so as we were talking about speaking about China and the way that they're navigating this entire situation, it's kind of a boon to them, the entire Iran war and even the trade war, honestly.

47:48Let's put this up here on the screen. It comes on the heels of Scott Besant promising economic D-Day. And so how is China responding? Let's take a look. China has vowed to protect its interests after the U.S. announced plans to widen economic sanctions against Iran and its trading partners. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Zhang said that China was formally opposed to what it called illegal unilateral sanctions and would take all necessary measures to safeguard its rights. This comes after Scott Besant saying that he will announce new measures warning any nation financially partnering with Iran would be isolated.

48:25China buys 90 percent of Iranian oil. And Lin said further, cooperation between China and Iran has always been conducted within the framework of international law and should not be interfered with or disrupted. obviously Besson had said the single greatest financial offensive ever against Iran and then proceeded to release absolutely zero details about the entire thing. And so they're making it clear, and this is part of why the D-Day thing, you and I both know it's not even going to happen. If we were going to target any nation, it's going to be some small piddly nation which buys oil from Iran.

49:00President Xi is coming to the United States, I think next month, sometime in September. Are we really going to center our entire relations with the second largest power on earth, our number one trading partner, our number one unilateral trading partner whenever it comes to China? Such enormous effect on the global economy, on us, on our relations and all that in Asia, which we've effectively abandoned. Are we really going to do it when it comes to Iran? And that's the thing too, even if we did, would it work? I think the fact that we did it to Russia, a second-rate power compared to China, that it didn't work entirely, that it showed that their resilience to a sanction-proof, defectively financial system and weapons manufacturing allowed them to prosper for the entire time.

49:47So I think what we see with China in this entire thing is that the Trump administration is really in a bind because their rhetoric, as you said, remember, D-Day, it's a term that has meaning, I think, in rhetoric, rhetorical influence. D-Day is like all out of offense. It's all out offense. We roll the dice and we go all in and we're going to defeat. But if you don't do that, that's humiliating. If you do do it, it will be a disaster because we know that we don't have the ability to actually compel their behavior on Iran, which they have continued to support for the last six months. If anything, sending them weapons, giving them lots of intelligence, supporting their drone industry, and really bolstering their ability to stand up against the United States.

50:30And on your Russian point, CIA director John Ratcliffe was just in Moscow. Flew there yesterday. The reporting was, and maybe you've heard whether or not how accurate this reporting is, is that one of the messages that he conveyed was, we want you to sever ties with Iran. And if you don't, we're going to do X, Y, and Z. Russia relayed that to Iran, said, don't worry about it. We're not going to do it. And the The threats that they made were not actually that serious. And so that's Russia. Like, as you said, Russia is not China. So I'm curious if you have any insight into why it is that the Trump administration moves publicly forward with these ideas that to any person just casually observing are unworkable.

51:24I think it just makes Trump feel good. What does he love? Words. We talked about Lake America. D-Day. Go out and do the words. Yeah. Besson walks in, sir, economic D-Day. And he doesn't realize there will be a week after the week that he's living in now. And then he's like, well, wait, hold on a second. We can't actually do that. So you announce it, but then nothing actually happens. Like I said, I mean, the prestige to the empire is immense. I mean, if the empire says D-Day, people should be like, oh, shit. Like, we're about to get rocked. Except the Chinese are like, yeah, okay. They're like, go ahead.

51:52Let's see. Let's see how it works out for you. The Financial Times actually wrote this up in a very good op-ed. Let's put this up here on the screen. They talked specifically. In the event, it seemed more like a series of warning shots fired from far offshore. The campaign to turn Iran into an economic outcast is, moreover, not even one that the United States can fully accomplish on its own, but requires cooperation with Tehran's trading partners. The biggest of those, China has signaled little intention to play ball. And as Besant acknowledged, moving too quickly with U.S. secondary sanctions that do not comply would blow up the global financial system.

52:27And especially what they talk about here whenever it comes to China. It says Beijing, which already buys 90 percent of Iran oil, warned that if the U.S., it would retaliate if Chinese companies were included. Any significant increase in U.S. sanctions on China would then torpedo delicate trade negotiations only a month before Trump and Xi are due to meet in Washington. Even if the U.S. did manage to impose a significant new economic pain on Iran, there is no guarantee that it would even force Tehran's capitulation. After two years, after two wars in the past year have damaged industrial capacity and left inflation running at 80 to 90 percent, their economy is in far deeper crisis than when Iran had launched maximum pressure in 2018.

53:08But the regime is now more hardline by the conflict, only increasing its defiance. And so what they call, say here, is the China problem is basically there is no way to compel Chinese behavior, which would not immediately have blowback on the United States, which the Chinese is not going to do. And even if they did do, it probably wouldn't work. And one of the reasons, and I remember now in retrospect, how much criticism we took talking about here about those Russia sanctions. Because I remember, and I said this, I said, if you do this, you need to do it for something which is actually vitally important to the United States.

53:48Because by pulling it out, making Russia the most sanctioned economy on earth, then you show your hand. You show exactly the way that you can use the global financial system to your advantage. And what if it doesn't work? And we know now, four years later, it didn't work at all. GDP is up in Russia. Missile production is up. Weapons manufacturing is there. They're able to pay all of the widows. They can take who knows what the real number is, at the very least, hundreds of thousands of casualties and survive. Their population is fine. There's still food on the shelf in Moscow. Everybody's fine.

54:20In fact, some of them are so rich they can fly to Thailand or whatever these countries will take them. But then you look here at China for the last four years of sitting there studying the entire thing. Oh, here's how the sanction worked. Here's how the bank is. Here's how they implemented it. Here's what they did against Iran. Here's what they did against Venezuela. They're just picking up data points. Then they go in because it's a nation of bureaucrats and they say, how do we make sure this doesn't happen? How do we make sure that doesn't happen? They've had so many years. And lo and behold, let's put the next one up here on the screen, is that China now says, quote, they need U.S.

54:51dollars but is building a hedge against Washington sanctions. And what they specifically laid out is that China's banks are now currently in a position where Beijing can reject the demand, even though some of its biggest lenders still have a strong incentive to preserve access to the dollar. Besant had actually even said if they facilitate transactions that are part of the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, they will be targeted. But the Chinese, what they're doing is they have internal mechanisms to use a different system of banking. It's called the Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, which allows it to diversify from dollar-centered finance without abandoning it altogether.

55:36PRC built CIPS in 2012, which was apparently the first year that they ever got sanctioned, and they now have 12 years of experience actually using it. They also have put in multiple different systems inside their own banks to be able to trade on different types of currency. I know this is all very technical, but this is the machinery and like the railroad, if you will, which banking systems in China used to work. And they built an alternative pathway to do deals with Russia and with any other country that America doesn't want it to do. They would prefer to use the primary one, but the secondary one is there, battle tested and ready to go if we were to put it against them.

56:13And CNBC notes the symmetry here that it was actually in 2012, we sanctioned a small Chinese bank specifically for doing business with Iran. And so that's why they built this parallel clearance project. So that if we did that again, and it goes back to that old saying, you know, if you owe the bank a million dollars, the bank owns you. So if you owe the bank$40 trillion, you own the bank. And it's like Bessett needs to go back and reread his volume three of Marx's Capital, which talks about the way that debt and leverage shape who has control over resources. Because I think he's forgotten the way that this has unfolded.

56:59That goes back to your point that anything that we could do because they own the bank, they own us because of our debt with them, our relationship with them, it blows right up in their face. And so China has announced we will not take this lying down. You know, you can do D-Day if you want. But, you know, if you try to storm our beaches, don't forget you're going to blow up all of your own treasury bonds. We have guns. We can put your economy to the brink. He even said, quote, we have our own tools and we know how to play the game. We've been waiting for these plans for a long time. That's an ominous quote.

57:41Unlike us. We've planned this last week. Yes. And, oh, that was the last thing I wanted to put on up here. I forgot to mention. Put C4 up on the screen. Remember that we've been talking about the only reason that the entire economy did not implode as a result of oil prices was entirely because China reduced its overall oil imports to a low, which we did not even think humanly possible. It remains the reason why that oil continues to be relatively low, despite the fact that there's been this major disruption. And if you're watching our show, the chart in front of you shows why. As you can see, exactly the number of crude oil exports that's sent to an all-time high.

58:23where you can see now is that they're beginning to climb up back to levels that we haven't seen from the very beginning in April and in May. And the reason why that they're beginning to climb up is because it says Asian buyers are snapping up U.S. crude, adding stress to a tight market. And what it means is that with very little oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, that everybody has had to readjust and buy oil from where it is available in America, thanks to the shale revolution. Now, immediately, some of this was being bought by Europe, by Japan, and others. But what they point to here specifically is China, and specifically that China is beginning to ramp up slightly its overall buy.

59:05We're not even close to where we are at normal levels. They still think the price is too high. It's very clear that their electric grid capacity, their EV reliance, and their overall strategic petroleum reserve bought them a runway, which nobody even thought possible. But as Asian buyers run through their petroleum reserve, just like the United States, eventually you're going to have to go out and buy. And that's what sends the bid price up. And so as we see right now with the Chinese, they can use their own buying leverage to inflict maximum pain on the United States. They don't even have to necessarily do it on sanctions.

59:40they could easily take a strategic loss by buying oil at a very, very high price, which would send demand skyrocketing in the United States. And they could easily, if they just resumed to their buying where it was pre-war levels, they could send gas prices here up to$5.50 a gallon if they wanted to, which would be a total disaster. I mean, a monumental change, I think, politically. And not only the same with diesel, of which, of course, they also have their own capacity. So I just wanted to flag that for everybody. As the buys continue and if they tick up even more, that$4.10 that we're seeing.

1:00:13I mean, every last two weeks, every time I say something, I'm like$4.02,$4.04,$4.06. I was gone for a couple days,$4.10. It just keeps on ticking up to where things are. And there's not even any real bullets that are flying. God save you if you need diesel. My God, yeah, actually. I can see it in front of me. $5.62 a gallon. and diesel was at$3.70 a gallon a year ago for context and has now been above$5 a gallon for months. And the proportion of Trump supporters who buy diesel versus gas. Oh, it's gotta be immense. Yeah. Right. Like I said earlier about the idiot men out there who live in suburbs who buy these diesel trucks.

1:00:56I'm like, hope it was worth it, buddy. Hope it was worth it so that you can use it to move once every four years. Move your buddy's cash. Or you buy your friend's couch. Somewhere out there, there are a lot of wives saying, I told you so. I told you so. And she was right. She bought a CRV. All right. Let's get to Robert Pape.

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From the publisher

Saagar and Ryan discuss Iran and Oman making a deal for full control of the Strait, Trump lashing out at Canada with his Lake America imagery, and China refusing to comply with Economic D Day.

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