8/31/26: U.S. Resumes Iran Strikes, Top Generals Rebel, Trump To Steal Venezuela Oil, NBC Crew Attacked By Settlers

25:41I mean, look, that's fine. You can do whatever you want, but you should probably disclose it. If you're going to be out there talking about webs of deep states and going after, I put up Jessica Pounds' previous attack on journalists or they're for lack not disclosing their funding it's like you literally work for the federal government this lady and you don't tell anybody works for the pentagon and compiled some database right of people who are dsa affiliated so you could track yeah so you could track what americans are affiliated with dsa i mean this is deeply just i mean it's really one of those things you can't even imagine happening in other administrations we're using tax money to pay secret paid shills, like this bot army inside of the Pentagon to pump up the Secretary of Defense.

26:28It is so incredibly wild. And some of these people, what's this, Kurt Schlichter or whatever, continue to write for town hall. None of them disclosed any of this was going on. The Jessica Pounds lady, she was one of those. Remember when they kicked down all of the real journalists at the Pentagon and that you have to sign this loyalty pledge, basically, that you're not gonna do anything they don't want you to do, which is not what journalism is. Anyway, she's one of the ones that's like, yes, me, I sign up for that. And the next thing you know, they're like, great, we're going to actually hire you and put you on the payroll to do this as your job.

27:00And none of this is made public. Completely, completely insane. It also shows you their mindset. Like, they're so Twitter-brained that they think that the whole war of public opinion is happening on these online spaces and on Twitter in particular. So anyone that had like a decent following that was in or adjacent to a military sphere that they thought could shill for them in anything approaching an effective manner, they're like, all right, come on board. We'll get you actually in-house. We will make you a government, special government employee or expert and let you do this as your whole thing.

27:38Absolutely. And by the way, just to prevent any of them coming. So you said payroll. We should try to use this as an expression because many have denied that they're actually being paid. But if you have a government email, if you have a government email as an SGE, whether you're getting paid or not, you work for the federal government. Like Jared Kushner. He doesn't work for the government. He works for the government. Elon, he didn't work for the government. He worked for the government. We can understand that. Clearly being rewarded with access and scoops, just like this dumbass Jessica Pounce who couldn't even recognize what was being handed to her and had her whole little meltdown.

28:11But that is part of the of the payment of the reward is you get access and you get to be on the inside and you get to know things that the public doesn't know. And that increases your profile, your social media cloud, et cetera. Exactly. All right. So we have Rory standing by. Let's get to it. If your bookshelf and your For You page are equally important to your personality, welcome home. This is Prose Society, the weekly podcast that's part book club, part group chat for thought daughters, pop culture obsessives, and anyone who thinks Pride and Prejudice and Love Island deserve the same level of discourse.

28:46I'm Eli Rallo, and every week we're connecting the dots between books, the internet, and the conversations everyone can't stop having. I'm going to have to look up this story. I'm obsessed. I'm obsessed. From best-selling authors and your favorite book talk creators to the latest pop culture moments, nothing is off the table. It's like if you can hide some real messages inside compelling characters, then that is a Trojan horse. Whether you're looking for literary deep dives, smart pop culture conversations, or a community of readers who love to think a little too much, you're in the right place.

29:19Listen to Pro Society on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. See you between the pages.

29:55Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people and they were like, you smiled at us. Not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind or wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

30:44Everyone has a good time and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show. We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman. Not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this? How about we flip it on his head? How about we flip the script? What if the surprise woman, who actually you think is the straight man, is actually the one who's acting weird? Adam Scott. This entire time, you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show. I would never expect. Let go of that. I have. I would never set expectations for something like that to happen. It seems like you did.

31:22If the universe allows for something like that to happen, I'm open to it. I'm always going to accept. You know, Danny McBride, fine. Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. I could smell it walking down the hallway, to be honest with you. I was like, is that weed? Nope. It's fragile masculinity. Ben Stiller, no. Because a lot of times, out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is. You know what I mean? Like, oh, what's a state? Everyone's so dumb except for you. And fake. Right, fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life. I don't care about your life.

32:00And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us. Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on every episode, but he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, joining us now to break down all of the things, all of the many things happening in the oil market here, abroad, Venezuela, Iran, etc. is Rory Johnston. He is an oil market researcher and founder of CommodityContext.com. Great to see you, Rory. Good to see you, man. Thanks for having me back.

32:32All right. So let's start off with what exactly is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. We can go ahead and put this up on the screen. There's a dispute between tanker trackers, which is saying that over the past seven full days, crude oil exports departing the U.S. Navy blockade line averaged 6.7 million barrels per day. There's a dispute between them, between a Goldman analysis, and also between what the president and the U.S. administration are claiming in terms of barrels coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. What is your best understanding of what is happening here? So my numbers are very similar to tanker trackers, and they're very, very good at what they do.

33:08They're very, very manual. They both use AIS, which is the satellite-derived signals that we see on maps that we've all become very used to over this crisis, and supplementing that with a lot of kind of idiosyncratic and satellite imagery to kind of fill in the gaps, of which there are many right now. I think the important thing to stress here is that there is, you know, there is a considerable amount of volume going through the strait. I think that's the first thing. I think, you know, the debate has basically become, is the strait open or closed? And it is very much both. I also see somewhere between six and seven million barrels a day of oil regularly exiting the strait, which is about a third of where it stood pre-war, but mixed with some of these offsets is probably around, let's say, half of pre-war levels total coming into the Middle East.

33:52That is substantially higher than it was even a couple months ago, but is still obviously nowhere near enough to actually solve the crisis facing the oil market. And on this basis, if this persists, let's say, you know, you know, shambles on for another couple months like this, we're just going to keep leeching out global inventories because it just simply is enough oil and oil markets are going to continue to tighten. Yeah. So, Rory, one of the things that I've been fascinated by is the White House has basically just tried to do a mission accomplished on the straight. Let's put A10 up here on the screen.

34:24Actually, they quite literally did mission accomplished. But in this case, this was kind of an infamous story. If you ask me, I'm curious for your reaction. Barack Ravid and Axios reporting, quote, that sucker is open. U.S. gains the upper hand in the battle for Hormuz. I mean, various levels have been reported by the military. In some cases, you know, they're saying 10 million barrels per day. They often give out numbers which average potentially even higher than that. What do you make of many of these claims at the highest level to many of these reporters, quote, that sucker is open? Yeah, so let's go through the numbers.

35:01And I think it's important to understand why there is disagreement in the first place. Normally, in normal times when there's not a war and the Strait of Hormuz is totally open, virtually all shipping, with the exception of maybe some dark Iranian transits, are transiting in the open, broadcasting their AS. We can count them very easily. We've got a lot of good indicators. When it when, you know, in the current environment, when everyone has their AIS off, this is what we're calling, you know, transiting dark. Typically, you can't confirm the trends that has occurred until after that ship re, you know, turns its AIS back on.

35:32Typically, you know, further into the Arabian Sea or towards Asia. And that's when you can kind of figure out, OK, if it's there now and you kind of back cast where it was going to be, that is essentially what's happening. And I think, again, the numbers we're getting from the White House are indicative, but not helpful. And I think in classic White House form, they're picking weird fights that I think are damaging their credibility. And what could have been, if they had just said six or seven million barrels a day getting out, way more than before, still not enough, but we're making progress.

36:03Myself and other analysts have been like, yep, you know, that's roughly correct. It is likely true that Hormuz, you know, that Iran is beginning to lose some control of the Shred of the Hormuz and the US position militarily is improving on this logistical point. But instead they said 9 million, then 10 million, just high enough to make tanker trackers and other analysts like myself say like, okay, this is probably exaggeration, this probably isn't true. And they got lost in the debate instead of actually celebrating the progress that the US military and the US Navy has actually legitimately made, which is impressive given the current context.

36:34Got it. Lastly on this topic, Rory, so we've been covering these new strikes back and forth between Iran and the U.S. Very noteworthy to me that the U.S. decided to strike La Rock Island. They said that Iran was preparing to launch new drones in the Strait of Hormuz. What do you make of that in the context of the oil markets and the reality of what's going on in the Strait of Hormuz? I think one of the interesting questions right now in the debate that's currently happening is essentially, is Iran letting this seven-ish million barrels a day of oil trends at the Strait of Hormuz, or are they being prevented from stopping it?

37:06And what the U.S. Navy or U.S. military is claiming, CENTCOM, is saying that basically they've destroyed rocket launchers, missile launchers, drone launchers, and radar, all the things that would have been used to threaten this shipping in the first place. Under that interpretation, Iran basically can't do much more than it is currently doing, which supports this argument that Iran is losing control of the Strait. We'll see whether or not they can continue, whether or not that remains the status quo. But right now it does look like, you know, whether or not Iran likes it or not, we're getting, you know, the U.S.

37:34Navy is getting seven-ish million barrels a day through, which is enough to keep oil markets from kind of erupting violently, even if it's still not enough to actually, you know, close the gap and realign supply and demand. But I do think that if this continues, you know, this is eroding Iran's kind of, you know, time-dependent weapon here. that for a long time, I and many other analysts believe that time was on Iran's side. I still think in a longer term sense, that's true, but it might be too long now. And I think that Iran, if this continues, is going to need to attempt to rescare traffic and commercial shipping through the strait in order to get those numbers back down.

38:10But now it's essentially a tug of war between those two points. Yeah, that's the general analysis of almost every strategist that I've seen on this, is that they have to try and reassert some control, especially as they continue to be squeezed. So we originally also wanted to talk to you about Venezuela. Let's put B1 up here on the screen. Details of this are genuinely crazy. They say, Inside Trump's plan to give the Pentagon a stake in Venezuela's oil riches, the deal caps months of secretive negotiations, which gives the U.S. rights to some of the world's largest proven oil reserves. And it appears this involves the United States government taking a stake in this company, some sketchy aligned businessmen who are there on the ground.

38:56They're claiming huge proven reserves and billions of dollars being invested. What do we know about this, Rory, and how real actually is any of it? It's still really, really hard to tell. First of all, all of this is going to be caveated by this is obviously, as you noted, very crazy. and I think at this stage all we really know for sure is what we're being told by the White House and by the Delce administration in Caracas so everything I'm going to say take with a massive dollop of salt but first on this reserve point so the the numbers that we're hearing in this deal is that the fields in question that had these rights have been given to have a combined proven oil reserve or associated as the president as the Venezuelan president said oil reserves of 65 billion barrels that is a huge amount of oil and larger than the United States total proven national oil reserves.

39:42This is the actual total amount of economically and technologically accessible oil in the ground. That said, that number, you know, Venezuela has always claimed an enormous 300 plus billion barrels putting at the very, very top of the global leaderboard of these proven reserves. Yet despite this massive stockpile or geologic bounty, they've never really, or at least recently, have not managed to produce much more than a million barrels a day. They need much more capital, much more expertise. This is where the United States comes in. but they've never been able to produce anywhere near the level that those reserves would indicate.

40:15So the important thing is not the reserve base, even though that's the big number that Trump's going to talk about. The importance is how can they actually get these fields into producing order again? Now, this is where, you know, the deal we've seen so far, imagine something like$100 billion of investment poured into these fields. Yes, if that actually happened, that would make a huge difference and would dramatically increase production. And that is where the Venezuelan government could see this, you know, 200 plus billion dollars of additional tax revenue coming in. But this is still extraordinarily early days.

40:46And I honestly fear for the White House here, like let's let's steel man their position at the beginning, that I actually think, well, the legality was, let's just say, charitably extraordinarily tenuous of the of the removal of Nicolas Maduro earlier this year. I think history would have been relatively kind in hindsight to it. I think no one was a fan of Maduro and the trajectory of Venezuela was improved after his departure. But I think re-injecting this very clearly like neo-colonial language around Washington seizing resources in a extraordinarily resource nationalist economy in Latin America just is the ultimate thing, like the thing that would just so easily spoil what could have otherwise been a promising trajectory.

41:28Yeah. Well, and to your point, if we have a B2 up on the screen, unsurprisingly, you have basically every side of the political debate in Venezuelan politics being like, I'm sorry, what? What are we doing with the U.S.? And it also appears to even violate the Venezuelan constitution, which demands Venezuelan sovereignty and national possession of their own reserves. So not popular thus far in terms of the reaction from Venezuela. But I also wanted to ask you, Rory, you had a bunch of big oil companies that the Trump administration wanted to come in and do this investment themselves. This weird, you know, we're going to take a stake and do this deal with the sketchy businessman thing only came about because all of the big oil and gas companies said we're taking a pass.

42:19We don't want to do this. We don't think that this will ultimately work out to be profitable for us. So why would we think it's going to go better for the U.S. government than it would for like ExxonMobil? An excellent question. I do think, and to be charitable here, there has been progress. Chevron, which has been the country for, you know, this entire time, has announced additional investment. It did look, we were starting to produce more in Venezuela. There was a beginning of a turnaround. But I would argue that, you know, apparently it wasn't going nearly fast enough to validate the White House's narrative around a Venezuelan turn on the industry.

42:53And that's where I think this comes from. Again, I think that if left alone, I actually think it would have gradually improved and we would have seen over the next five, 10 years a real turn on. But this kind of impatient, abnormal injection of politics and policy and, again, imperialism into this discussion is just the fastest way to start scaring off anyone else. I think there's going to be very, like, many, many questions after Trump leaves office about what was exactly agreed to by whom, who got what kickbacks, et cetera. I have no doubt this is going to be tied up in hearings for years to come.

43:28And I think any country, any company that wants to get involved in Venezuela is going to want to steer clear of this kind of complication. I think they've got enough going on. So the other question here was about Strategic Petroleum Reserve. We can put B4 up here on the screen. Again, this is just why it's useful to speak to an expert on this. Trump obviously sees some political danger. A lot of people have heard about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Trump says, one of the things I'm going to do with the Venezuelan oil is fill up the strategic national reserves, which because of sleepy Joe Biden had been virtually emptied.

43:59The topping out process will begin very shortly and is a gift from Venezuela to the people of the United States. So, Rory, first of all, where does the reserve actually stand? Should we be worried about it? Is there even enough here to top up the petroleum reserve? Like, you know, fact check the various levels of what's going on. Okay, so I think this is where the word reserve is important because, again, in the initial tweets, Trump talked about doubling the U.S. reserves. That makes it sound like it's the actual proven reserves, the amount of oil essentially the United States can claim as its own.

44:32This is talking about the strategic petroleum reserve, which is a different pool of produced oil, not oil that hasn't been produced. This is produced oil that was pumped out of the ground and then re-pumped into salt caverns owned by the U.S. federal government. This was a policy response coming out of the energy shocks in the 1970s. at its peak, at its maximum capacity, can hold more than 700 million barrels following, to Trump's point, the release of oil in the 2022 post, you know, a Russian invasion of Ukraine crisis. And now Trump's release has brought that reserve below 300 million barrels.

45:06No doubt the reserve needs topping up. The challenge here is essentially that virtually all of the oil, all of the oil in the reserve is either light or medium crude. There is no really heavy, sour crude in the caverns of the type that Venezuela is like. It's the same reason I'm in Canada. Lots of people talk about filling up the SPR with Canadian dilbit or diluted vitamin. Very similar grade to what Venezuela exports. The challenge is that everyone I've talked to, the engineers basically say that it's not suitable for cavern injection because of the fact that it's diluted. And essentially that combined liquid, that oil, that basically lighter oil and heavy oil will separate in the caverns and make it difficult to work with.

45:45That's not to say that it can't in the future ever be used. But in the current configuration of the caverns, you would need to reestablish Venezuela's upgraders, which is essentially partial refineries. That could maybe get you there, but that's already going to require tens of billions of dollars of repair. And it doesn't look like that's happening anytime soon. So I would say I do not expect Venezuelan heavy oil to enter the USSPR anytime soon. Gotcha. So put it all together, Rory, both what we talked about with regard to the Strait of Hormuz and this new Venezuela announcement. What do you think the near-term prospects for the oil markets look like going forward?

46:23So I would say, based on this news, and I agree that it sounds very flashy, I would say it changes literally nothing for this year. I think that January, the removal of Nicolas Maduro, the removal of sanctions, that whole episode, that was a big change. This is essentially chapter two of that, and nothing is really changing materially with the plot. It is essentially changing some of the main characters, some of the tone. But the story is still that you're going to require tens of billions of dollars in five to ten years in order to actually see real turnarounds. At this stage, whether or not the U.S.

46:56government owns a piece of that, as odd as it could be, is not going to change that material. Gotcha. Last thing for you, Rory, is just about the bigger geopolitical situation. It seemed my analysis, based on all of your guys' reading, was the big X factor for why things didn't go totally crazy over the last six months, was Chinese imports falling to a level which we all didn't think was possible. Have we seen movement in the Chinese market or any change in Beijing's thinking? How long can they keep their level of imports where they are? And if they do dial them up, what will prices begin to look like?

47:34Yeah, so you're absolutely right. That is the piece that I certainly did not expect. For context, China's crude oil imports fell by roughly five or more than five million barrels a day, 40 to 45 percent of its total free war crude oil import volumes. Massive, massive swing. That bottomed in June. We saw a bump back up, essentially capturing some of that massive exit flow out of Hormuz following the signing of the Islamabad MOU between U.S. and Iran. They've fallen back down, but not quite as low as they got in June. Say, if before was a 5.5 million barrel a day cut of imports, now they're maybe at, say, four, three and a half to four.

48:12Most of that incremental use of crude is actually going into re-exports of refined products. China had banned or at least extremely restricted the exports of refined products, a huge issue given that right now, while crude markets are tight, refined markets, particularly for diesel, are much, much, much tighter. China is slowly easing back into that. And what we hope to see is that they jack up those exports from, say, a million barrels a day of products right now up to two million barrels a day of products, which is what we saw when they leapt in to help satisfy some of that deficit in the market in 2022 and 2023.

48:45That, I think, is the next upside. But, yes, that would ease diesel prices and crack spreads, but at the cost of tightening oil. So it's really the whole thing is still kind of a problem. Gotcha. Makes sense. All right, Rory. Thank you so much. We always appreciate your insight. Really invaluable. Thanks for having me this morning, guys. When I was 14 years old, I was kidnapped and held captive for nine months. I survived and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart and these are the Survivor Files. I just remember this low taunting voice next to my ear saying, shut up, don't say anything.

49:25Every week, I'm with survivors who live through the unthinkable. I knew if he woke up, without a doubt, he was going to hurt me. I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed, and I just started screaming. They are abducted, stalked, controlled, and nearly silenced. But these aren't stories about what's taken from them. They're stories about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to The Survivor Files with Elizabeth Smart on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. If your bookshelf and your For You page are equally important to your personality, welcome home.

50:07This is Prose Society, the weekly podcast that's part book club, part group chat for thought daughters, pop culture obsessives, and anyone who thinks Pride and Prejudice and Love Island deserve the same level of discourse. I'm Eli Rallo, and every week we're connecting the dots between books, the internet, and the conversations everyone can't stop having. I'm going to have to look up this story. I'm obsessed. I'm obsessed. From best-selling authors and your favorite book talk creators to the latest pop culture moments, nothing is off the table. It's like if you can hide some real messages inside compelling characters, then that is a Trojan horse.

50:44Whether you're looking for literary deep dives, smart pop culture conversations, or a community of readers who love to think a little too much, you're in the right place. Listen to Pro Society on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. See you between the pages. Hey, this is Hayes Davenport. And Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook on the Big Money Players Network. Our show is extremely accessible to first-time listeners. Each week we talk to someone in show business, aka the biz, and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.

51:18Everyone has a good time and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show. We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this? How about we flip it on his head? How about we flip the script? What if the surprise woman, who actually you think is the straight man, is actually the one who's acting weird? Adam Scott. This entire time, you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show. I would never let go of that. I have. I would never set expectations for something like that. Seems like if the universe allows for something like that to happen.

51:58I'm open to it. I'm always going to accept, you know, Danny McBride. Fine. Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. Exuding. I could smell it walking down the hallway, to be honest with you. I was like, is that weed? Nope. It's fragile masculinity. Ben Stiller, no. Because a lot of times, out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is. You know what I mean? They're so stupid. Everyone's so dumb except for you. And fake. Right, fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life. I don't care about your life. And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.

52:37Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on every episode, but he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Shocking news out of the West Bank, where an NBC News crew and a Palestinian woman were beaten by illegal Israeli settlers. Let's take a look at the NBC News report on what happened. We were interviewing a Palestinian woman yesterday named Aida Ahmed Abdullah. Her home in the West Bank, now occupied by Israeli settlers. She says she dies a hundred times a day watching this scene.

53:13As Aida took us closer to her home, massed young men in a gray car with Israeli license plates, armed with sticks and stones, rushed on the scene.

53:25They smashed our car windshield, hit our crew with clubs, and beat Aida unconscious. Are you OK? Are you OK? We were able to get her to an ambulance and our team was treated for minor injuries. The attack comes amid a surge of settler violence across the West Bank in recent weeks. So far this year, 76 Palestinians have been killed by settlers, according to the United Nations, among them 18 children. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who's been accused of turning a blind eye to the violence, released a statement yesterday accusing the settlers of breaking the law and damaging Israel's standing in the world.

54:04Just horrifying images there, that Palestinian woman beaten, unconscious, all for the crime of just trying to access her own home. Because this involves American journalists, you had some perfunctory - Right, it's a big story. Criticism from the Netanyahu government. But analysts who are experienced with this and how this all works, say this wouldn't happen if you did not have the consent of the Israeli government. Oftentimes, these settlers work not just with the IDF sort of turning a blind eye, but actively in conjunction with the IDF. You've had some of the areas where settlers have been attacking and besieging towns in the West Bank.

54:41You've had a special military zone declared. And then it only applies to the Palestinians. They're the only ones whose restrictions are movements are restricted. and the settlers are still allowed to menace and roam at will. So just the latest example of absolute whore there, as they point out in the story saga, you've had 76 Palestinians who were murdered by these people just this year. And then they expect us to believe that, oh, this is just some one-off, this is just some rogue evildoers, some bad apples, but this isn't representative of Israeli society when obviously it is. It's representative of Israeli society and government policy.

55:17Well, let's put the story on the screen, C3, because you can actually see this in some of the actual statements that we're giving. So, for example, from Netanyahu, they say the criminal acts of violence committed by a handful of rioters who violate the law cause enormous injustice to the law abiding settler public and hinder the IDF in fulfilling its mission and harm Israel standing in the world. I love how it has nothing to do with, and by the way, Palestinians are getting murdered. It's all, oh, we're worried about the good standing and credibility of the settler community. Well, what's crazy too is they say that they haven't even really said beyond this perfunctory statement that they will apprehend the perpetrators and bring them to justice.

56:01They will not tolerate vigilantism by any kind of anybody, anyone. But it's just obviously not true because there have been riots up and down the entire West Bank now for over a year. There have been a number of American citizens who have been targeted and have been beaten. We interviewed one of those gentlemen who's literally had to fly back. I mean he's basically camping out in his house being like, come and take it, I guess. And he's a U.S. citizen. It's the only reason he has even a modicum of protection. Even that may not be enough to actually save his life. I think what always leaps out to me about these is the same perfunctory, especially like from the United States side, people being like, I support Israel.

56:40But these settlers are out of control. Look, it's part of their government policy at this point. And from what I can tell, the vast majority of their population just supports it. I mean, being honest in terms of, I mean, if our government was doing something like this, there's just no way that people would be sitting back, at least in my opinion, that people would be sitting back and be like, oh, yeah, this is totally normal and is okay in terms of tax dollars and more. And in this case, actually, literally, is our tax dollars even going to these freaks. So it really leaps out. Well, the other thing I think we have to highlight here is how Netanyahu speaks in Hebrew.

57:13There was a more recent debate where he was bragging about how great he was inside of Israel and speaking in Hebrew. So, guys, let's go and put C6 on the screen. I'll read from some of the subtitles. This is from Netanyahu, again, speaking in Hebrew. And one of the things here he's talking about Iran. He says, it took me a long time to get our security establishment to deal with Iran itself. It was also a long time to bring the United States to this understanding. I was able to do that because I had close to a thousand hours on American television. Another thing that he says in Hebrew, again, is he talks about Lebanon.

57:52He talks about Gaza. He talks about Syria. Let me read you this direct quote. If my opponents win, they will leave Lebanon. They will leave Gaza. They will leave Syria. They will establish a Palestinian state. It won't just be a Palestinian state. It will be a Palestinian state backed by major powers. That will be the end of Israel. We will go into free fall. So bragging about his permanent occupation of Syria, of Gaza, of Lebanon, right? I mean, does anybody dispute the borders of Lebanon outside of Israel? No one. Same with Syria. Even the U.S. government doesn't say, oh, actually, you know, based on our reading of Balfour Declaration, Lebanon belongs entirely to the state of Israel.

58:37But this is what the guy says out loud. Yeah, no, that's absolutely right. I love Ryan's point on this, that we're always asked whether Israel has a right to exist as a state. And it's like, Israel doesn't even act like a state. State is supposed to have fixed borders and laws that apply equally across the territory. They have neither of those things. So do they even consider themselves a state? Because they don't act like that. They act like some rogue terror regime and menacing all of their neighbors and a good portion of close to a majority of their citizens. Let me just put this up on the screen for a C4.

59:07This is from our former U.S. ambassador, just to see the incredible level of propaganda that is truly unbelievable that they continue to try to push. Again, this was a U.S. government official here. He says, here's the other side of the settler violence, which he puts in quotes, headlines from yesterday. The Jews seem to have been attacked on Shabbat so the Palestinians could get ahead of the media. When the Jews push back, the cameras start to roll. If you think this was not encouraged and even caused by the 45 Democratic senators publicly condemning settler violence, you don't understand the Middle East.

59:37Again, political vacuums generally are not filled well. Time for one Jewish state. So he's blaming the Democratic senators who, you know, put out some perfunctory statement condemning settler violence for the now 76 Palestinians who have been murdered. Completely insane. And there's actually a lot of documentation that what happens is after religious services, these illegal settlers will then go out and take advantage of the fact that you are likely to have a lower police and military response on those days to go out and menace. So that is why a lot of the attacks begin on the Jewish Holy Day, because it's not because the Palestinians are starting a fight.

1:00:21It's because that is the opportune time that the settlers have found to go out and begin their pogroms and their campaigns of terror. We did want to bring you some positive news here on the U.S. front in terms of the administration's authoritarian free count over, quote unquote, anti-Semitism. There's been a major court win in the fight for free speech and against those trumped up charges of anti-Semitism. Let's go and put this up on the screen. This was thanks to our friends over at FIRE. Federal court rules that the statutes the Trump administration used in its speech based deportation scheme are unconstitutional.

1:01:00So you will remember in some of the most prominent instances, Mahmoud Khalil, Ramiza Azturk, Moshe Mandawi in particular, that the administration was arguing that they could deport them simply because they had said things in Ramiza Azturk's case, written in op-ed, that they found to be detrimental to national security. completely, you know, wild, unprecedented in terms of the use of power. So this court found that no, even if you are not a citizen, if you're in the U.S., you have a First Amendment right and you cannot be deported just because you say something that the U.S. government does not like.

1:01:44Now, this will, I'm sure they'll continue to appeal. This will continue to make its way up through the court system. But very, very significant ruling here. I'll just read you from a little bit of what the judge wrote. Judge Noel Wise of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California said that, quote, in the U.S., freedom of speech belongs to the people. It is not the government's to take. Foundational to America's enduring democracy are our freedoms of speech and the press embodied in the First Amendment. In the U.S., free speech, including the freedom to criticize the government and its leaders, is not a sign of our democracy's fragility, it is evidence of its strength.

1:02:19That strength is diminished when members of our society, citizens and non-citizens alike, must self-censor and behave or suffer the government's retaliation. So this ruling is not directly in regards to the cases of the three individuals I mentioned previously, Mahmoud Khalil, Rumi Zahaz, Turk, and Moshe Mandawi. However, it is going to have major implications for those cases going forward. So significant win here for FIRE and in general for free speech. I think that this ruling obviously is very obviously important ruling. Yeah. Props to FIRE for doing it. Very few wanted to. It extends a reading of the First Amendment specifically so that not only over legal visa holders but restricts the government's ability to restrain it in any way over both legal and obviously U.S.

1:03:12citizens. I think it's important also, especially at a time where you have all of this craziness with the Pentagon hiring these influencers who are then attacking the journalists. I mean, the head of the Pentagon is literally out there, the spokesperson we talked about, saying publishing this is a crime. I mean, that's crazy. He's saying what Pentagon Papers didn't happen ever before in the Supreme He's also saying that he's going to report Kristen Walker to the FCC because she said not all of his endorsements were endorsed candidates were winning. Which is empirically true. Which is actually true.

1:03:44Yeah, that's quite literally true. If you look at his track record, I think beyond that actually, though, in terms of the Israel exception to free speech on the right is one where I even saw their reaction to this. They're all just like, oh, well, this means we're going to have to work around the court. We're going to have to try and keep these people out in the first place. They're so hyper-dedicated to restricting the debate that it's important to have the court on the side of free speech in this particular case because it highlights resources and what they expend. We saw that, the video of Ozturk getting arrested.

1:04:20Look, the lady didn't break the law. She came here. She was on a student visa. I read her op-ed. It was anodyne at best. It wasn't even easy to find. Do you remember? It was on a tough student website. It was like a student newspaper op-ed. calling for divestment. That's it. No one gives a shit. Like, no offense. But like maybe on your campus. Beyond that, nobody would have heard this lady's name if you hadn't gotten arrested or on the street. You spent a team of agents to do so. Khalil, the same thing. He's like the most mild-mannered dude, you know, who was out there and would constantly, he was like going to Shabbat dinners.

1:04:52They turned these people into national symbols and made them look much more reasonable than any of the unhinged Zionists who were even on the side in the first place. So the fact is the ruling is good, but all of it is in service basically to this government and trying to restrict the debate around this. And ultimately I think that's why not only the court decision is very important, but the fact is is that you've got American reporters and team who are out there getting beaten while they're doing interviews with 56-year-old ladies. I mean these are old ladies that are out there doing nothing, and they're getting beaten on camera.

1:05:25And then it draws like the most mild mannered, you know, criticism from here in the West with no change in our policy. That's what it's all about, period. Yeah. And the Israelis will do what they think they can get away with. Yeah. And what they found is they can get away with a lot, whether it was under Biden and certainly now under Trump. Trump said this morning or maybe this was from an interview yesterday that Israel wouldn't exist if he wasn't president. So everybody do with that information what you will. All right, Sagar, we've also got an update from the courts on the betting market. Let's do it.

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