8/4/26: AIPAC Set For Defeat In MI, US Munitions Shortage, Israeli Settler Interview

23:07We're also keeping an eye on Missouri, where there's a rematch between former Congresswoman Cori Bush. It was unseated by Wesley Bell, so they are going up against each other now. Ryan interviewed Cori Bush last week and asked her if she felt like it was a different day in the Democratic Party now, because at the time of that primary, her opponent, Wesley Bell, was funded by millions of dollars from AIPAC. He is again this time as well. It became one of the most expensive primary fights in American history, and it was successful. And so he asked her if she felt like now the Democratic electorate was more attuned to this money from AIPAC in particular and their allied groups and whether that was going to make a difference in her race.

23:50Let's go ahead and take a listen to a little bit of that. That was the case in 2024. People did not know who AIPAC was. Some have said, you know, I've heard about them, but I really didn't know, you know, that they would get involved in your, you know, in someone's election. And now that people know, so it took what happened to Jamal Bowman and I for people to really see what happened. Because after Jamal and I lost our races, even though years before you had the same thing happen to Nina Turner. And then there were, you know, other people who, you know, in between that time that where AIPAC, you know, got involved in those races.

24:32But because of the amount of money spent and because it was back to back here, especially with, you know, the genocide happening in Gaza, people were so angry when they found out where the money came from. When I say this community was angry to the point to where in a town hall that Wesley Bell was holding, the community, the majority of those questions were about his affiliation with APAC and about funding. So she feels like it's a night and day difference. I don't think there's been a lot of polling in this race. I've been looking for it. The last poll that came out had Wesley Bell maintaining a narrow lead over her.

25:14How do you see the dynamics here? Yeah, and that also was by Cori Bush's team, so it's hard to know if it was reliable or not. I think Cori Bush would win if we had the same situation in this year when she was the incumbent. It's going to be a little tougher now, but it definitely has a shot. It's like how powerful are these dynamics that she could win. I mean, the way APEC does, right, like these days anyway, is they're very smart about how they run their ads. They focus on a weakness of the candidate they can exploit. for Abdul Saeed, even though it's not really based in truth, a lot of it has been trying to make him look like he's anti-woman or anti-Barack Obama and anti-Michelle Obama, which I think, by the way, if they end up endorsing him and campaigning with him, which I'm sure they will, in the general, that could help get some of those voters back.

25:58But specifically on this race, they attacked him for not voting for the infrastructure bill with Biden. And that might still loom in voters' minds because for Abdul Saeed, A, he's a fantastic candidate, but B, he's raised a ton of money himself. And even when you're getting outgunned with the amount of money being spent, if you've raised enough money and you have a winning message that can break through, the gap doesn't mean nearly as much, right? So it's not always like a degree of ratio. It's like, are you both on the playing field? And unquestionably, Abdul Saeed has been on the playing field in Michigan.

26:32I think the advantage is a little stronger here in this congressional race. Cory Booker hasn't quite—not Cory Booker, I'm sorry. Gordon Bush hasn't quite caught the level of strength and momentum that he has to have this huge base of money to spend to counter it. So it's still going to be a tough race for her. I think she's an underdog, but definitely has a shot. OK. All right. Very interesting. Just big picture because you're always looking at trends and things. What are we looking for? So in terms of what's a good night, you know, for El Saeed? Is it just winning? Is it winning per his polls?

27:03Is it winning by 20? What are some of the other trends and other things that we're looking for? What demographic groups? Are we looking at black voters? Are we looking at older voters? Where should we be looking for? What's going to shock you? Not just in terms of wins, because it all just seems kind of going in one direction, but what's actually going to shock you in terms of a change in the electorate? Yeah, I think what will be interesting to see is, does Abdul-Sahid's momentum carry through? Because he's coming into this primary having gained 20 points while Stevens Justice gained 10, right?

27:30And there was a lot of undecided voters. So even though the polls have shown this directionally in taking a big lead, And often what happens is the polls don't just stop there, right? They're always going to be a little behind. So he could end up getting a much bigger lead in this race. And so to some degree, they'll be reflected in China, right? If this race was really close, I'd really be looking at black turnout specifically because that's where Stevens has really targeted her electoral strategy and campaigns ads. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we see some persuasion with some of these voters by Abdul Sehid and he ends up doing better.

28:02Now, my personal model has him winning by 11, but it wouldn't surprise me if he does a little bit better. Got it. Yeah. Interesting. And I'll just say that I think, you know, this is going to be a very important race in terms of setting the battle lines between the centrists and the progressive wings of the party. And so, you know, one of the big narrative destroyers would be if Abdul Asayyad, if he was able to win black voters, that would be a major narrative violation. But even if he does really well, one of the knocks on that wing of the party has been, oh, they just it's just like, you know, educated white young people who like them.

28:38Clearly, that is no longer the case. And obviously, with Michigan being a swing state, it also shows that the appeal goes far beyond liberal urban enclaves like New York City or Philadelphia or Denver, Colorado. So I think that's part of why tonight is so significant. Guys, Logan is going to be joining us on that live stream. So he'll have his eyes on the numbers all across the country. There's a lot of interesting races and ballot initiatives and primaries that are happening. So we'll be all over it. Make sure to join us tonight at 730. And Logan, thank you for your time this morning. We'll see you tonight.

29:10There's one last piece I got to get. Oh, I thought you were going to skip it. No, no, no. I can't skip this one. So this is Logan looking towards the general election. One of the questions for candidates who are on the left of the party is whether some of their woke 1.0 views are going to be a problem for them in a general election. And this is, of course, a big case that centrist Democrats are making. Oh, my God, you can't nominate these people because they're going to be unelectable. One of the, I think, primary test cases for this is Francesca Hong, who looks set to dominate the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor.

29:46That race happens next week. She has some old tweets that are really quite something. and unlike like abdul took the strategy of i'm going to delete the tweets i'm going to walk away from some of the things that i said zoran in a sense pulled a similar maneuver she's going in the other direction she's keeping the tweets up she's standing by him she's not backing down from him so she got asked yesterday on cnn about this cancel thanksgiving tweet in particular let's go and take a look at how that went you know you've talked about your past positions that he keeps highlighting and you know obviously likely would continue to do so before november should you win One thing that they brought up as well was a post from you in 2021 where you said Americans should cancel Thanksgiving, should have done this in 1621.

30:32The post has been deleted. Republicans have been highlighting it. Do you still believe that Thanksgiving should be canceled? I'm a chef and one of the first meals that I made that was for the community when I was 16 was a Thanksgiving meal. I always think my hospitality background and owning a restaurant for seven, eight years, that bringing folks around the table to share conversation and build community is always a good thing. But Thanksgiving is also a time that's incredibly painful for many people in our communities. And so I think there I wanted to make sure that people understood that there are multiple views, but views can evolve.

31:17And the position that I'm running for right now, and I think my background as a chef, will actually help me become a better governor that's able to bring more people to the table. Francesca Hong, thank you for joining us. We hope to have you back on, depending on how things go next week in your primary. right. Thank you so much for having me, Caitlin. Come on, Caitlin. It's a yes or no question. Do you think it should be? Come on, Logan. What do we think of this here? All right. I read this this morning. It was way worse when I saw the video. Oh my gosh. You know what? She is right, though. Thanksgiving is painful for a lot of people when you have to sit down with your family and have to listen to their dumb ass ideas about politics.

32:02If Zora didn't answer that question, and I'm cribbing this from DSA leftists who are mad at her about this. He would have said, no, we're not going to cancel Thanksgiving. We're going to make it cheaper. And right now it's expensive because of Donald Trump's policy. So then we all sit down for the Lions game or whatever and the Cowboys, we're going to sit down together and we're going to enjoy a cheaper and better conversation because I'm going to heal politics and we're going to make it more affordable for everyone. The real war on Thanksgiving is from Donald Trump. Yeah, exactly. How hard is this?

32:32So, look, we'll see. Betting odds do not have—they have her tied with a Republican, which it shouldn't be, in a wave year for the Democrats. So, yeah, that's my personal thing. I think she's the biggest red flag for all the Democrats that are out there. But it is—it's gubernatorial, so it might be a little bit different, which is always a little bit better, even for a wave year, because it's not nationwide stakes. But, yeah, any reaction? You know what? Yeah, go ahead, Logan, and I have one thing I'll add to this. I would say that Francesca Hunks would probably stay away from these national interviews.

33:02I've seen a bunch of them now on Fox News, on CNN, on NBC. And like this is usually how it goes. She is way better when it comes to giving public speeches. She clearly gets nervous and gets stuck in these word salads. And, you know, she has to have a little more control of her message. And I just think it's not the right platform for her. I actually thought she did well in the Fox News interview, which was relatively hostile. but she still got praise from the Fox News host about how a lot of Trump voters like her message on data centers and, you know, sort of the local issues. I will say just in terms of the electoral impact, I keep coming back to and I always forget the guy's name, who's the AG of Virginia now, who literally there were text messages exposed where he was like, I want to murder my political opponent.

33:49I think his child should like they were Justin. What's that? Is it Justin something? It's Justin Jones. Is that it? I don't know. I live in the state. I should know. But in any case, and Democratic voters were like, yeah, he's not a Republican, though. So it may just be that kind of year where even with some, you know, challenging tweets to overcome, that there's just such anti-Republican Party sentiment. There's no question. I'm not in any way saying that this is going to make her lose. But, yeah. Anyway, I thought it was wild. And I do think there's a bit of a contrast between how some of the more successful politicians have been handling this, like Abdul, who's basically just lying about how he never supported defund the police, and now Francesca Hong.

34:29So, hey. Well, I think the most successful leftist candidates have really positioned themselves as the most pro-American because they're saying we're not going to spend our dollars overseas. Yeah. We're going to spend them here at home and continuing to return to that message. And it's something that, you know, even Republicans like the couple, very few characters who have a critique of Israel can't really credibly say because they don't want to spend the money here on, you know, Medicare for all or whatever for people at home. So I personally think that's the most successful lane for leftists is really to position themselves as the true like America in terms of the American people first candidates.

35:06And so in any case, Logan, excited to see you tonight. We'll have all kinds of results to break down for you guys. It should be a lot of fun. What's up, fam? I'm sports journalist Ari Chambers. Hey, what's up, y 'all? It's your girl, Sam Jay. And we're the hosts of Everyone Watches Women's Sports, a new podcast from Together and I Heart Women's Sports. Because let's be real, women's sports is giving us way too much to talk about these days. So Kelsey Finler, she became the first female solo rower to go from California to Hawaii. My first thought is just like, what's up with the snacks? Like, what are we eating?

35:38The highlights, the rivalries, the breakout stars, the moments that take over your entire timeline. And the conversations that start during the game and somehow keep going all week. Every week, we're breaking down the biggest stories across women's sports. Naomi Osaka showing out. She beat Sabalenka. Shout out to you, Naomi. You get the palm, Naomi. You get the palm for that. Because we're not just interested in what happened, we're interested in why everyone's talking about it. Because everyone watches women's sports. Listen to Everyone Watches Women's Sports on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

36:13Hey, Portlandia fans. Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here. You know us, or rather, you know them. Tony and Candace, Nina and Lance, Spike, and yes, the chicken. We've played a lot of iconic characters over the years, but today we're showing up as ourselves to tell you about Podlandia, AO Rewatch, our brand new podcast. Each week, we'll revisit an episode of Portlandia from the very beginning, breaking down the sketches, exploring the backstories of our most iconic characters, revisiting the Portland locations you know and love, and opening up about our creative process. How did any of this get made?

36:46Why do we think that was a good idea? We're ready to talk about it. And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life. Guest stars, collaborators, and friends, including director Jonathan Kreisel, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Mann, and many more. Kyle is going for it here. You fully improvised, not just words, but a song, a melody. Well, I thought he was going to write. I thought you were all going to write a song. I remember you thinking that. Listen to Podlandia Ayo Rewatch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

37:38We recommend some of our recent episodes with Ben Stiller. The definition of what is a movie has kind of changed anyway, too, right? What do you think it is now? It's images and words being spoken, captured by some sort of technology. Danny McBride. He loves Boba. Oh, that's fantastic. And you make it on, you make your own. That's great. I call him Tarot Reed. That's a good name. They're all named after cast members of American Pie. Yeah. Oh, gotcha. I never looked up if she was in this, but I call him Leachie Sobieski. I don't think she was in American Pie, but I still like that. Haven't looked it up.

38:14Haven't looked it up. She was prominent around the same time. Then Mary Steenburgen. Why are you guys talking to me like, why are you talking so down to me that you think I don't understand your little play game? I just really am trying to set you up for success here. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

39:01with that full-scale attack on Iran, not some fake peace talks that were not actually happening. I'm gonna read from some of this story because it's so vitally important. The United States Army has now used much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran. The missiles are principally the Army's surface-to-surface weapons, known as the Army Tactical Missile System, the AT-CAMS, and precision strike missiles, the PRISMS. The U.S. has, quote, used virtually all of these weapons. The degree to which the military is running out of the specific missiles has not yet been previously reported.

39:35The long-range munitions were an important part of the military arsenal before the war, allowing accurate strikes from a safe distance. The U.S. supplied weapons have now played a key role also in the war in Ukraine, where they currently are asking the United States for more of them. However, as we now know, virtually all of them have been used. According to this reporting crystal, Reuters says that CENTCOM actually used all of the missiles that they had in their domain, and have had to draw down, as we saw previously with the Thads and others from virtually all the other theaters around the world.

40:08The next time that the PRISM missile, which is replacing the ATKAM missile, will come online to the United States in production is 2027. So we will have to wait a full year before new ones will begin to enter the arsenal. This is honestly, I mean, look, we knew it was bad. Didn't know it was this bad. They also actually, I just want to say, it's not just these land missiles that are vitally important for the United States. It's the tomahawk supplies as well, something that has not been covered nearly as much because we do have more of them. But approximately 50 percent have now been used in the war with Iran.

40:43Again, it takes years in order to just make even a few dozen or so of these things from a single factory here in Arizona. just to demonstrate the billions of dollars that have now been expended in terms of the munitions in this war and the tradeoffs that will be needed. Last thing that I do think is so vitally important and also shows the strategic problem that we face is that they note inside of this U.S. government assessment that the reason why that we're running so low on these weapons and we've been so heavily reliant on them is we did not want to risk manned pilots dropping many of those other types of munitions over Iran out of fear that they would get shot down.

41:22which means that the United States does not have the total air supremacy over Iran and that they remain afraid that we would have more shootdowns, as we saw in the final days of the war before the cease or the full-scale war before the ceasefire broke out. So overall, a vitally, vitally dire position for the United States to be in. Can't emphasize enough how important these missiles obviously were in the course of the war and in terms of the war plans for all of the other different theaters, including Russia and China. So the number one determining factor, it appears, as to whether the United States even can resume a full-scale all-out war against Iran, even if it wanted to, just five months is all it took to basically expend most of them.

42:03Absolutely insane. And as people have been covering this for years at this point, it is shocking just how bad the situation is. I mean, what can you even say about this? Where does all the money go? What have you people spent all of our tax dollars on? I mean, we fund the Pentagon more and more and more every single year, whether it's a Democratic or Republican administration. The last time we had any sort of cuts was actually under Obama with that sequestration deal with the Republicans. Outside of that, the line just continues to go up. Pete Hegseth is demanding$1.5 trillion. What is the money going to?

42:37Complete insanity. So to your point, look, what we did in the initial round of the wars, we used a lot of these precision long-range weapons. Why? Because our planes kept mysteriously falling out of the sky. Remember those claims in the early days that there were like three fighter jets that were down by friendly fire? Yeah, I'm sure we all believe that one. In any case, we're having all kinds of problems being able to establish that air superiority. So we're using these long-range missiles in order to hit targets. That is no longer an option. So next time Trump goes out there and says, oh, we're going to bomb their bridges, we're going to commit all these war crimes, we're going to bomb their water infrastructure, et cetera, with what?

43:15What are you going to use for that? So it just underscores once again, there is no military solution to the problem of Iran. The only solution is a negotiated diplomatic solution. The only solution is to surrender, is to admit defeat. That's where we're at. I mean, it's completely insane that the U.S. military, which had all this projection of strength and all of this money spent way more on it than any other country in the entire world, cannot even sustain this long of a conflict and is thoroughly defeated. So, you know, as things go on, we were lucky to get the terms of the original MOU. That MOU is no longer on the table.

43:56The Iranians are going to drive a hard bargain because they're reading this reporting. They know the situation. they know that we have no real options to turn this thing around. So it just underscores what a dire, dire situation Donald Trump has gotten us into. I really just can't even, like, look, we knew the situation was bad. CSIS has a good handle. Again, you can go and look at all their methodology, Ben Shapiro looking at you. Apparently, he thinks he knows better than the people who are literally connected to the war industrial base, funded by them in many respects. But OK, so where we are right now is that CSIS had previously pegged it around 45 percent of all of them expended.

44:36We now know that that's not even the case. It's even more. And it appears that because of their ability to estimate methodology, they can actually undercount the number of missiles used. The internal assessment really matters in terms of what they're pointing out, especially because with those prisms, for example, I believe the number was fewer than 100 that we even had before going into the war. Another 120 will take about a year or so to come online. The Tomahawks as well, I've talked about this to many ends, especially about the factories and the initial process and the way that it's all there.

45:09You could spend all the money in the world and it still wouldn't work. But it does still show you we have been spending all the money in the world. We had years to plan for exactly a crisis moment like this from 2022 onward. Biden squandered all of that. He basically gave the entire barn over to Ukraine. And now we've got nothing left, especially with Ukraine, with their hands out today for all of these even more critical missile systems. And the bottom line remains the United States is afraid of being able to take casualties in the air over Iran. So they're heavily reliant on this. And now we're going to be in a situation where if the war does have to escalate or not have to, but if they want to escalate it again, a lot of people's lives are going to be seriously at risk, both from the interceptor stockpiles being so low that they have to ration.

45:52And a lot of pilots, you know, may be at risk up in the air. And we already saw the F-35, the so-called friendly fire shutdowns. There's two tankers that allegedly, you know, ran into each other. So there are all kinds of sketchy, you know, situations that are all happening here. But it does explain all of Trump's BSing behavior because he remains totally committed to this idea that we are going to have, you know, some sort of talks. And in fact, we have here saying that talks are underway by Donald Trump. This is his claim yesterday in the Oval Office. B2, let's take a listen. Are the talks with Iran now off and are airstrikes back on?

46:30No, they're on. They're going on right now. It's an amazing thing. We have a little problem with Iran because we have many talks and we'll say we have or we don't have. You know, we're straight about it. But they deny it. But they're not denying it now. They just put out a statement, not denying it. But for some reason, when they're talking, they don't like saying that they're talking. They're censors. So they called me and they said, please don't attack. We'll make a deal. That's the real truth. And everyone knows it. And who wouldn't call? So that's the real truth. Meanwhile, the actual truth, let's put B3 up here on the screen, per Wall Street Journal and the Iranian foreign ministry.

47:10Here's what they say. Iran's foreign ministry, there are no discussions underway with the United States. There are no plans to have any discussions. The only discussions are currently with Oman, which continue on managing traffic through the passage Trump calls Tehran unbelievably duplicitous. And in fact, what we already see is that even these talks with Oman about some sort of managed route for the future through the Strait of Hormuz is not a guarantee. We have had multiple vessels, including, again, maybe an hour or so before we even began this show, of another one that was just hit by an Iranian projectile in the Strait of Hormuz trying to transit in a different manner.

47:47The current estimate is that there's a lot of black market traffic that is moving through the strait, approximately 5 million barrels a day or so. They're called ship-to-ship transfers where it comes on one ship and a blockade runner takes it and takes it to another ship. Hyper inefficient, very, very expensive. Obviously, with the current price of oil, some people are willing to risk it, but it pales in the 20 million barrels a day that were originally moving through the straight of Hormuz and explains why even with oil prices, quote, down around$80,$85 per barrel, it is still going to be punishingly high at the gas station for all of us.

48:20And to that point, by the way, Trump now basically abandoning, even trying to get oil prices down by increasing the supply, is now saying that the oil companies are making too much money. B1, let's take a listen. Exxon and Chevron integrated all U.S. Just announced record profits second year. Unbelievable for Exxon, for instance, 14 million houses. They've had an over decade. For Chevron for the quarter, highest in history. By 12 times. On the back. You saw that. Yes. I mean, it's unbelievable. On the back. I don't like it. Workers paying higher debts. Yeah. Whatever is our. They're making too much money.

49:03Okay, based on a shortage, they're making too much money. I don't like it. And I should be the last one to say, because I'm a big free enterprise guy. Nobody bigger. And, you know, you're going to see oil when we're finished with Iran. You're going to see the prices drop through the floor. But they made too much money. Too much money. Chevron, too much money. ExxonMobil, too much. Too much money. When you look at one company where they made 12 times what they made the year before, they're going to give some of that back to the public. And they better cut the retail price, the consumer price. Too much money.

49:42You're surprised I'm saying it. I'll say it loud and clear. I'm not happy about it. He's not happy about it. You know, he's going to tell them or send them a very strongly worded truth to tell them to drop their price. So, I mean, first of all, you know, there's a lot of funny things you could say about free enterprise and all of that. But, you know, look, is he actually going to do anything to tell them not to do that? No, he can't actually because of where things are today. He could try the export ban. It would be a disaster in the long run and probably lead to outright shortages, probably destroy the global oil market as we know it.

50:15And in the long run would actually make oil prices much higher for everyone. There's only one thing you can do, which is end the war. You end the war, then yeah, OK, we can have some oil that's going to go through. but still not accepting it. As of this morning, retail gasoline average$4.08 a gallon around the nation, still well over$5 in California. So that's where things are. Well, one other breaking news, we've got Scott Besant on Fox News saying that we may have a deal within the next day or two. I'll just read you what he says. We've seen President Trump last week threaten what would have been the largest military campaign since World War II against the Iranians.

50:51Now, because of that, we are in talks. With the Iranians, I think there's a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the straight saga. So this is, you know, we have no long-range precision missiles. All we have left is like jawboning market manipulation lies and propaganda. That is effectively the only tool that's left in our arsenal. So that's what Trump has deployed to his credit. I think he deploys it very effectively. The markets are loving this new Scott Besson comments. We'll see if today or tomorrow we have a deal to open the straight. Great. And you guys think that's really going to happen?

51:24The Iranians, as Sagar has told you before, have said, we're not negotiating. No, why would we do that? And the sentiment within Iran, as Professor Morandi, when we had him on discussed with us, is no negotiations. Why would we do that right now? We have the upper hand. And there's a report that they may have attacked our base in Kuwait. They still have plenty of weapons that they can deploy. They feel they're in a very strong position. And so unless Trump is truly ready to accept the defeat that has been rendered on the battlefield, then we're going to continue, you know, in this kind of limbo state.

51:59Yep, exactly. And, you know, look, last thing before to that point. So there may be a deal there, but that deal is not between the United States. That deal is between Oman, Qatar and Iran. So there was allegedly some final draft, which is being, you know, coming through. It will actually institute some kind of the surrender of what we're talking about, which is we will say, okay, ships, go through the Iranian side, exit the Omani side, some payment or something like that is going to have to go through. And that will be an alleged framework to get to the point where we can have talks, so we can get back to the memorandum of understanding, so we can get back to a potential nuclear deal, just to show how far we are away from all of this.

52:39So whether there's a, quote, deal or not to open the strait, we already literally had one, This will still be an Iranian and an Omani understanding, which we then assent to and accept. Last point here from Donald Trump before. Let's put it up here on the screen. He had said previously, Iran's leadership is unbelievably duplicitous. They had asked for a meeting. Some would say beg that talks began with more scheduled in the immediate future. They're saying openly and proudly they're not having any discussions. They then go to give their usual blather in saying the Strait of Hormuz will be operated by them when it's already completely controlled by the United States.

53:13the U.S. Wall of Steel blockade, et cetera. Nothing gets through to Iran unless we want it to, and nothing will get through unless a deal or total surrender is accomplished. So he had said previously a couple of times this is the last chance. I mean, he's also said that many times before. So take the Scott Bessent news, this truth, all of that with a grain of salt. The one thing you can count on, the hard fact, is that we basically completely run out of some of these missiles. We have very few of the other types left before we have to full-blown start rationing and enter a bad situation. So maybe, you know, Besant is right that a, quote, deal is on the horizon, but it is not going to be one even remotely floated or any of that by the United States.

53:51We'll remain in scene. Obviously, we'll remain and keep everybody updated. But let's get to Gaza. What's up, fam? I'm sports journalist Ari Chambers. Hey, what's up, y 'all? It's your girl, Sam Jay. And we're the hosts of Everyone Watches Women's Sports, a new podcast from Together and I Heart Women's Sports. Because let's be real, women's sports is giving us way too much to talk about these days. So Kelsey Fendler, she became the first female solo rower to go from California to Hawaii. My first thought is, like, what's up with the snacks? Like, what are we eating? The highlights, the rivalries, the breakout stars, the moments that take over your entire timeline.

54:26And the conversations that start during the game and somehow keep going all week. Every week, we're breaking down the biggest stories across women's sports. Naomi Osaka showing out. She beat Sabalenka. Shout out to you, Naomi. You get the palm, Naomi. You get the calm for that. Because we're not just interested in what happened. We're interested in why everyone's talking about it. Because everyone watches women's sports. Listen to Everyone Watches Women's Sports on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

54:56Hey, Portlandia fans. Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here. You know us, or rather, you know them. Tony and Candice, Nina and Lance, Spike, and yes, the chicken. We've played a lot of iconic characters over the years, but today we're showing up as ourselves to tell you about Podlandia, AO Rewatch, our brand new podcast. Each week, we'll revisit an episode of Portlandia from the very beginning, breaking down the sketches, exploring the backstories of our most iconic characters, revisiting the Portland locations you know and love, and opening up about our creative process. How did any of this get made?

55:29Why do we think that was a good idea? We're ready to talk about it. And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life. guest stars, collaborators, and friends, including director Jonathan Kreisel, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Mann, and many more. Kyle is going for it here. You fully improvised, not just words, but a song ability. Well, I thought he was going to write, I thought you were all going to write a song. I remember you thinking that. Listen to Podlandia A-O Rewatch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

56:04Hey, this is Hayes Davenport and Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook. Every episode, we're trying to help our guests improve their careers by mainly focusing on how they can help us improve our careers. The show is famously super accessible, so you can easily jump into any of our 650 episodes and understand what's going on. We recommend some of our recent episodes with Ben Stiller. The definition of what is a movie has kind of changed anyway, too, right? What do you think it is now? It's images and words being spoken, captured by some sort of technology. Danny McBride. He loves Boba.

56:37Oh, that's fantastic. And you make it on, you make your own. That's great. I call him Taro Reed. That's a good name. They're all named after cast members of American Pie. Yeah. I call, I don't, I never looked up if she was in this, but I call him Leachie Sobieski. Yeah. I don't think she was in American Pie, but I still like that. Haven't looked it up. Haven't looked it up. She was prominent around the same time. Then Mary Steenburgen. Why are you guys talking to me like, why are you talking so down to me that you think I don't understand your little play game? I just really am trying to set you up for success here.

57:14Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I wanted to turn now to Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, some wild things that are unfolding there. In particular, I'll start with this clip. A BBC journalist asked an Israeli settler about the lives of Palestinians versus Jewish life. And the answer is actually not shocking, but it should be. Let's take a listen. I think now, after they kill one Israeli people, we need to kill all the people in Tel and Sara. even Jit and Farata why? because we don't want it to happen again it sounds like you're saying one Jewish life is worth hundreds or thousands of Palestinian lives not million one Jewish life it's 10 million that just sounds racist yes, I know I know But this is the truth.

58:19Because God chose us. Because of this, you are jealous. These inflammatory views, rejected by many Israelis, are crucial to understanding the growing violence in the West Bank, which many extremist Israeli settlers see as land given to them by God. The Bible is authorizing that this land belongs to us. Okay? Israel occupied it militarily. And under international law, that means that no civilian settlements can be built in. But the God, not right in the Bible, the international law. So you're a lawyer. And you're saying the only law that really counts for you is the Bible. Yeah, of course. And Sagar, this is the logical endpoint, honest endpoint of an ethno-supromacist ideology and religious extremism.

59:13And, you know, in the BBC report, they make clear, oh, many Israelis disagree with this. Do they? I'm sure many Israelis wouldn't say it quite this overtly. But we've seen the polling on how comfortable they were with mass slaughter in Gaza. We've seen the polling on how many want to expel all Palestinians who are currently citizens within Israel who are in support of mass ethnic cleansing. So, you know, this is the unvarnished face, the true face of the ethnosupremacist ideology that undergirds the state of Israel currently. Yeah, and what we actually see inside of the settlements is the normalization, quasi-legalism.

59:53I mean, this used to be a fringe part of Israeli society. Most secular Israelis looked down on this type of – not even just this type of rhetoric. They actively were opposed to it. I mean, there were major fractures in their own society over settlements, et cetera. However, what has effectively been normalized now, I would say over the last like 10 to 15 years especially, is not just an overt embrace but really like elevation of a lot of the stuff we've seen right in front of you. And you could say this is just one person, but it is quasi-representative itself now of government policy because their own minister of whatever, national security, Ben Gavir, he speaks like this every day.

1:00:32I mean, currently, what is it? Currently, he wanted to put crocodiles in a prison for Palestinians. And the only reason that the plan was struck down was animal welfare organization in Israel was like, this would be bad for the crocodiles. That's right. That's exactly right. Look, I know this sounds crazy. That actually happened. That literally just happened this week. and it's like if PETA was looking up for the crocodiles and not for the actual prisoners, not some bleeding heart liberal who's on, you know, in terms of prisoners, but I'm like, okay. Well, we know who - This is like medieval. It's not even fair to call them prisoners.

1:01:13I mean, these are truly hostages. They get picked up for the smallest, even theoretical fraction. Oftentimes you're talking about children, you know, documented, systematic torture, abuse, sexual abuse, etc. That's what we're talking about here. So even to describe it as a prison is really to water down what the reality is within these, you know, within these camps. And so, you know, last thing on this, and then we'll talk some about what's going on with the Gaza Board of Peace, which I think is also very important, very illustrative. I remember early on after October 7th, Sagar, you and I covering things that Daniela Weiss, who is one of these settler leaders, was saying.

1:01:54And this was treated as a fringe view, but she was talking about greater Israel and how Israel had a right to not just, you know, historic Palestine, not just Gaza and, you know, what they call Judea and Samaria, the West Bank, but other countries' land as well. And lo and behold, here we are now. They're occupying part of Syria. They're occupying part of Lebanon with no intention of leaving. They're, you know, helping to foment the war in Iran. Like, it's very clear that the Greater Israel Project is a real commitment, not just from some fringe figure, who, by the way, Daniela Weiss is very influential, but from the government itself.

1:02:33And how can you say this government isn't reflective of the people? How many times has Netanyahu been reelected? How many decades has he served as prime minister of this rogue state? So, you know, these I've long said that the if If you wanted an understanding of what was going to unfold after October 7th in response to October 7th, the best people to listen to were the most hyperbolic lefties. I think I even understated the case. And the settler terrorists who will tell you flat out the way they think about Palestinians, the way they feel about it, their own twisted and perverted moral calculus and what they think the state of Israel should ultimately do.

1:03:12So with that framing, let's talk a little bit about what's going on with the quote unquote Board of Peace. Trump made a big announcement saying, oh, we've got this deal and Hamas has agreed to disarm, et cetera, et cetera. Well, there is an agreement in place, but it is much different from what Trump represented. And Israel is already undermining the pieces that they are supposed to abide to as they transition to new governments within the Gaza Strip. Let's put C3 up on the screen here. This is from the AP. Their headline is Hamas says they'll disarm if Israel halt strikes and withdraws from Gaza.

1:03:52But and I love this framing, but obstacles remain. What are those obstacles? Well, the obstacles are the fault that are the fact that Israel has no intention of withdrawing from Gaza. In fact, what they've said is they want to claim more of Gaza. They're already at 50 percent. They want to go to 60 or 70 percent of Gaza that they claim and occupy. And they continue to bomb and to attack and murder within the Gaza Strip. So there is not going to be any deal moving forward so long as Israel continues to occupy Gaza and kill Palestinians. Let's put C5 up on the screen. This is the latest from DropSite.

1:04:31They have killed 34 Palestinians and wounded 134 just since that Gaza deal announcement, Since Trump's Friday announcement of a historic agreement and Hamas's acceptance of phase two of the Gaza ceasefire deal conditioned on Israeli compliance, Israelis have attacked and killed at least 34 Palestinians, wounded 134 others across the Strip. This is, you know, some number of children among them. They have another tweet where they lay out that since the ceasefire was announced in Gaza last October, they've killed 1 ,250 Palestinians. Just to be clear, this is since the ceasefire. They have killed more Palestinians than Israelis who were killed on October 7th.

1:05:11That is to include 270 children, 134 women, 38 elderly people, wounded 4 ,110, including 1 ,147 children, 700 women, and 175 elderly people. So while the pace of slaughter has slowed, it has not come even close to stopping Sagar. Yeah, and you know the other reason why I think this is all very important is Iran is watching this. We talked a lot about what happened with the Saudi nuclear deal, how Trump signs this deal, reneges literally almost immediately, changes the conditions. Well, what about with Gaza and with Hamas? So let's even take this case. You got Hamas who basically held their hands up and apparently were told by the Iranians not to do this.

1:05:57When Hamas representatives were in Tehran, I think for the funeral of the Ayatollah, there was an alleged meeting between them and the Iranian leadership. And Iranian leadership said, you shouldn't do this. They're going to bomb you anyways. You really shouldn't have any sort of negotiation. Hamas said, OK, no, we're still going to do it. They disagreed for, of course, their own internal reasons. They've been crushed and basically defeated, at least in terms of their political leadership. And so what they did is they still acquiesced. They thought there was still some legitimacy in the Board of Peace deal.

1:06:25And then immediately Israel reneges on the U.S. announced deal, continues to bomb and to kill civilians. So if you're Iran, you told Hamas not to do it and you're still watching very closely. You're like, OK, we've got this U.S.-backed border peace deal. Trump has some relative interest in saying I'm the person who ended the war in Gaza. Hamas literally putting their hands up saying we will disarm completely if you continue to abide by this deal. All you have to do is withdraw from this. Israel says we'll do it. And then they don't do it. And they change the terms on a dime. So if you are Iran watching this, this only further affirms what you've seen how with the United States, its backing, its ability to restrain Israel.

1:07:03How real is that whenever the deal that you just signed in front of you is one which effectively they renege on on day one, literally the day after this announcement even comes? So I do think in the bigger picture, it's really important, especially as we're talking, there's some more leaks that are coming out about this Iran and Oman deal. It's exactly as I suspected. It's not a deal with the United States signatory at all. It's Iran and it's Oman. That's it. America can say yes or no in terms of whether we choose to let it go into place or not. But we are not a party to this whatsoever. That is what the future is going to look like.

1:07:43They're going to say, we've worked out a framework. This is how it's going to work. And at the end of the day, we can choose to do the blockade or not. And, you know, I guess choose to be in a war with Oman as well. But our word is nothing at this point. You know, I was listening, Tucker and Daryl Cooper having a podcast this morning. They put it in really terms I hadn't considered. We don't ever talk about how dastardly the initial attack on Iran was in the first place. And maybe that sounds really dramatic. It was Pearl Harbor. Like it was, there was no declaration of war. It came out of nowhere.

1:08:13There was a completely false pretext. And it also didn't even work, just like, you know, Pearl Harbor and the initial attack, which we look back upon as a great betrayal. And yet the United States launched this war, you know, basically the same way the Japanese, under an initial flag of peace. And we're sort of alleged negotiations that were happening, like with Steve Wyckoff and Midnight Hammer and the second time around. And we murdered 168 schoolgirls on the first day of the war. Like, let's say the truth for what it is. And so, you know, not just in terms of the stain of honor, but how to come back from that and actually have some sort of negotiation.

1:08:49And that was just from day one to today in terms of our conduct, not even to mention what's been happening with Gaza. Yeah, I mean, imagine if the show was on the other phone. Oh, my God. If the Iranians came to us, oh, let's work on a deal. And we're so close to a deal. And then, you know, out of nowhere, they murder a bunch of American schoolgirls, attack a bunch of civilian infrastructure. Remember the black clouds and the oil rain over Tehran? And they, you know, kill our entire top leadership, everybody that they possibly can. And in the most dishonorable way possible, you know, the Supreme Leader was taken out at his home with many of his family members, including his young grandchild.

1:09:27So, yeah, I mean, it's the most disgraceful and dishonorable thing that you can possibly imagine. Just real quick to go back to the Board of Peace, because I think it's important to validate this isn't just like us saying that Israel's attacking, etc. A Board of Peace envoy. And remember, all these people are like handpicked by Trump, right? Like this is his whole, this is his, this is his rodeo. They are complaining about him undercutting, about the Israelis undercutting the deal. This is C4. So this is an envoy to the Board of Peace. He said on X, two days of strikes across Gaza have killed civilians and destroyed medical supplies that people depend on.

1:10:07This comes after intense efforts by the Board of Peace and the mediators, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, and the U.S. to bring the Palestinian factions in Gaza to agree to a roadmap on the full implementation of President Trump's plan to hand over civilian governance and decommission their weapons. Both parties carry obligations under the comprehensive plan. My team and I are working around the clock with the parties, the mediators, and regional partners to de-escalate and create the space for the full implementation of the president's plan, achieving a lasting peace is hard but achievable if everyone makes their efforts.

1:10:36And the only way that this thing has a prayer of moving forward is if Trump were to go to the Israelis and say, you're withdrawing now. You are not attacking anymore. There are going to be consequences if you do. There is zero indication that he has the willingness to take that hard of a line, even though this is his own like, you know, this is his own deal. This is his own sort of like legacy credibility, blah, blah, blah on the line. But even when it comes to that, there's just zero sign of him engaging enough to care and to force the Israelis to do what they are supposed to do under the terms of this agreement.

1:11:16I think very, very important. Like I said, so in terms of the Israel Gaza situation, the ideology at front and also how literally the world is watching in terms of how this is going to impact with Iran. This remains. It sounds crazy. You know, we started covering October 7th. It was just the day in and day out. I don't think anybody could have predicted how much it would snowball out, not only into this war with Iran. Israel has bombed seven countries. It's expanded its own borders. It has now gotten us into a situation where it expended all of our precision stockpiles and all of these other things.

1:11:50And it's only been three years to even think about how monumental that is. It really is just completely insane. And also how much we've adopted so much of their own behavior. I talked yesterday in our show. We dropped a 2 ,000-pound bomb on a family. Nobody even thinks about it. Nobody says a word. You know, you just do a story. Time, you know, years ago, that would have been a national scandal. There would have been an actual investigation. The commander who fired that would have been called before Congress. There would have been a Pentagon inspector general report. You know, the media, not even just the media, but the average person.

1:12:23Like, you know, Crystal, you and I were around for Abu Ghraib. Everybody knew about that. People actually knew about it and they were horrified by it. I'm saying, you know, I grew up in Bush country. Even these people were like, oh, man, this is horrible. Now, you know, it just rolls off of our back. And that's the type of Israeli behavior we got to reject at the very beginning. Yeah, no doubt about it. And even if you, you know, don't consider Iranian lives as precious as American lives, which you should. Think of the backlash from Abu Ghraib. Think about how radicalizing that was. You don't think that the genocide in Gaza is going to be radicalizing for plenty of people against not just Israel, but against the U.S.

1:13:01You don't think bombing a school full of little girls, triple tap strike, by the way. You don't think that's going to be radicalizing, dropping 2000 pound bombs on a family's home and killing parents and a two year old. You don't think that's going to be radicalizing. We're just sowing more danger and terror and chaos and war in the world. And it is unacceptable.

1:13:53We'll see you next time. and pulling back the curtain on how it all got made. And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life. Guest stars, collaborators, and friends, including director Jonathan Kreisel, the mayor himself, Kyle McLaughlin, legendary musician Amy Mann, and many more. Kyle is going for it here. You fully improvised not just words, but a song about it. Well, I thought you were all going to write a song. I remember you thinking that. Listen to Podlandia, AAO Rewatch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:14:52sports on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:15:22iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.