9/1/26: Army Official Resigns, China Screw You To Trump, Bond Market Chaos, Trump Defends Data Centers, GOP Panic Over Midterms

23:41So there's just too much strain. And while yesterday's action was very limited, the engagement between the U.S. and Iran, we talked about how even that, the estimates are expended something like one-sixth of our remaining stockpile of Patriot missile interceptors. So we may have a lot of old dumb bombs that we can just drop. But in terms of the long range, you know, more modern, technologically advanced munitions, we're in continue to be in deep trouble with that. The problems with our sailors aboard these carriers and other warships have not been resolved. That continues to be a major issue. and ultimately that does impact your ability to perform effectively if the men and women you're depending on are exhausted and underfed and you know contemplating suicide and having a horrible time of it yeah of course that's going to impact your ability to be able to move forward with your plans but you know Trump and Hegseth to them it's all just sort of unreal they're disconnected from it just you know Trump especially is used to just being the CEO and if he decides he wants to do a thing, then everyone else has to figure out how to make it happen.

24:49He doesn't want to hear any objections. And so, you know, I don't I doubt that he probably really took in what Driscoll had to say. There's a reason why Driscoll resigned immediately after taking those concerns to Trump. And he can sleep at night, at least knowing that he did what he could to raise the alarms about the concerns that he had. Right. He tried, but he's been, you know, sidelined for months now. Except he's been trying to drum him out of office. Last thing I just want to mention in terms of the situation in Hormuz. Let's put up Sal's tweet up here. So Sal, from What's Going On With Shipping, has found four attacks in Hormuz just overnight that all happened.

25:26Shout out to him, by the way, and subscribe to his channel. But you can see that the firing at four of those distinct ships, all in the Strait of Hormuz, you can see that Iran is not stepping back anytime soon and at the very least are trying to exert even more pressure, which is currently working. I believe that the price of oil spiked or continued to go up today, so sitting around$92 a barrel and Brent crude. So it remains pretty high, even with not a ton of kinetic action happening. But the reason why it went back up was the general sense that this is going to continue in this direction. But as I said about a changing world, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting is happening right now in Kyrgyzstan, and there's a lot of interesting updates that are coming out of it.

26:10Let's get to it. I have been with Rasmussen University since 2013, all virtual. All of my professors throughout the entire journey have been nothing but supportive of making me reach my dreams. Rasmussen professors, they want to see you grow so that you can be what you want to school to be. I'm so thankful for Rasmussen University for being able to make it so easy and seamless. Rasmussen University. Find your seat and start now at rasmussen.edu. Hey, it's Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. Now, I was looking for fun ways to tell you that Mint's offer of unlimited premium wireless for$15 a month is back.

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28:07The Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately reciprocate. The reason why I think that this is important is that this is happening, obviously, at the same meeting with the gathering of some of the world's most powerful powers. And these powers, many are directly, in most cases, opposed to the United States. Let's go to the next one just to show you a little bit of how things have changed even since our last SEO and in many cases over the years. You see here the New York Times analysis, the summit with Russia, India, and Iran shows leverage wars have given Xi of China. And I noticed this very – at the very beginning of the SEO, which is getting zero coverage really in our Western media, even though you have the gathering of China and India here.

28:51So two of the world's most populous countries, almost a third of the entire global population. You have two of the antagonists in the war, which the West is currently at war with. With Russia and Iran, which are both present and having meetings, what the Times points to is how China is using this SEO summit currently in Kyrgyzstan as a direct picture of what multipolarity and its world-leading status looks like right before it comes to the United States. President Xi will be here sometime next month. He's going to do some tours. He's going to do some big meetings with Donald Trump. But the SCO summit this time around is to flex, and I read through all of their official communiques.

29:32They consistently say we are committed to a rising BRICS. We are committed to mutual respect in a multipolar world. We are committed to international law, as they like to see it. But what you see even more clearly, actually, is the continuing realignment of the region towards China. So they point to Xi has bailed out Putin from many of the economic sanctions the West put upon him. They've been able to flood the consumer goods and the banking system in Russia to provide them a lifeline. India, though, is, in my opinion, the most interesting part of the summit because India, of course, long time has juggled its relations between Russia, China and the United States.

30:12They really want to be a central power which is beholden to nobody. But what they see here is that India has taken upon itself a role of we are going to do solely what's good for us. Sometimes, and including right now, that means kind of saying screw you to the United States. You actually saw this directly. The very first day of the summit, put B2 up here on the screen, Modi put out this picture meeting with the Iranian president Peshach Khan in Bishkek. He says, we reiterated our commitment to strengthening India's longstanding friendship with Iran across diverse sectors. We want to expand and diversify our trade basket in the times to come.

30:49We had a discussion on the prevailing situation in the region. India continues to support all efforts aimed at ensuring a lasting peace. And he, again, he lists it in Hindi and in Farsi. The point, though, that you see is a smiling picture of the two of them meeting on the sidelines, diversifying our trade basket, not backing down from the purchases of future Iranian oil and their longstanding commitments. You also saw China continuing to push the line, both with Russia and Iran, of multipolarity and of strengthening their own system. So nothing earth-shaking has come out of the meeting per se, but I feel like not enough of the world is paying attention to what's happening because it's very obvious that they're using it as a grand flex.

31:35and including, especially right now, as the G20 finance ministers are all meeting, I believe here in the United States, the direct opposition of those two and of the rise of a new order, of a new leader who's able to push things in his own direction to float the powers of Iran and of Russia and to really point to the West and say, hey, there's nothing you can do to any of us. That's the big picture that they want coming into their summit with Washington. Yeah, that's right. Creating more independence from the U.S. I mean, there's a lot to say about this with regard to that summit that's happening in Asheville, North Carolina.

32:09Actually, the Russian finance minister is there, which is significant. A lot of the European countries were very upset about that. But meeting directly with him. Right. But he met directly with Scott Besson. So it shows you, you know, how significant Russia's position is in the world that we feel like we can't ice them out at this point. And China is a big part of the reason why Russia's economy has remained as resilient as it has. China is a big part of the reason behind the scenes that Iran has been able to perform as well as they have. And then Iran has also been beneficial to Russia. They've provided the drones that have helped Russia on the battlefield as well.

32:44So you can see an alliance between these three countries that they are all mutually benefiting from the relationships that they have. China seems to have taken from our misadventures in the Middle East that they want to avoid getting themselves directly involved in these foreign adventures. So it's not like you're going to see them come in directly on the side of Iran or Russia or anything like that. But that doesn't mean that they're not extremely influential behind the scenes. And in particular, we've talked a lot about their impact on the oil market. They've kind of saved our ass by decreasing the amount of oil they have been importing by an extraordinary amount.

33:24We talked to Rory Johnson yesterday about how that is starting to shift. We don't know how quickly, but in any case, China has certainly shown that they have a lot of cards to play in their negotiations with us. It's a very tenuous relationship, a bit of a detente on the sort of economic warfare front between us and China. But, you know, highly significant to see all of these leaders meeting together. and, you know, and a sort of a glimpse into the future of this alliance, which I think will continue to strengthen, and especially as Trump does everything he can to weaken the U.S. and force our allies to look at other places as well.

34:06Yeah, you were talking about Putin. Let's put B3 up here on the screens. Interesting analysis from the journal. Obviously, you know, they've got their own little bias in here, but there's some factoids which are worth kind of ruminating on. So they say Putin turns again to China's Xi as Russia's clout crumbles. So he says Russia has suffered from a summer of painful strikes by Ukraine on its oil and gas industry. China has yet emerged from the global shock of the Iran war with more power over oil markets and greater resilience against the West. The shifting power status is front and center when they are meeting in Kyrgyzstan.

34:36evident will be their shared resistance to U.S. power, where the sidelines of the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that include Iran will give the regime a measure of added international recognition. They specifically point to, like I said earlier, the lifelines, economic lifelines, they've thrown both to Iran and to Russia. They also point to, in some ways, this is even kind of a message to Russia itself, of you come to us, because Kyrgyzstan, traditionally in the Russian sphere of influence, Moscow actually apparently, I didn't even know this, has an air force base in Kyrgyzstan, but Kyrgyzstan has now begun to turn towards Beijing.

35:12So with the power going towards Beijing, it's a realignment on the continent. Also points specifically to Moscow's dependence on China, not just for the consumer goods, but also in terms of a banking system where they're able to exact and do trade outside of the Western sanctions. And so that seems to be the key point that both Iran and Russia are relying on and why both of them made kind of a big show, in addition really to India, which has always juggled SEO and has always looked at it a bit skeptically. They don't want to be seen necessarily as kowtowing to Chinese interests, but they want to maintain strategic balance.

35:50And I do think that coming at this time of the Iran war, one thing that we always would emphasize was with Asia is Japan and South Korea are solidly in our corner. They kind of have to be constitutionally and just decades long. Everybody else is up for grabs. You know, everybody else is like, I don't know, maybe China looks a little attractive. They're not starting wars. They're not driving up my gas prices. Remember, India suffered dramatically, really, in terms of the natural gas shortage that came out in the early days of the war. They had huge price spikes and actually caused real problems for them.

36:24They even had a protest movement, which we didn't end up covering, but it was pretty significant. One of the more domestic, larger domestic protest movements in the entire history of the Modi government. Not entirely economic, but some of it is related at least to social dysfunction that's currently happening on the ground there. A lot of that can be pointed towards the United States and, of course, his own leadership. So he has to figure out, you know, his main goal, like any leader of a developing nation, is like, I have to keep this engine going and belief in the future. And you can see then that they're not pointing and looking to the United States in a way that even 10 years ago it would have been relatively unthinkable to see such an embrace, you know, of abject opponents to the U.S.

37:06empire of both Russia and Iran. That's really what I see out of this. I mean, India's had huge skirmishes and issues with China. Of course, yeah. Yeah, they really fought a war. Yeah, so it's a big deal to see that direct collaboration. Last thing I'll say on this, we can put B4 up on the screen. This is what I referenced earlier with Besant meeting with the Russian finance minister at this G20 gathering, which is worth taking note of and we'll pay attention if anything comes out of that. But we really need to pay more attention to Russia because they're looking at the same set of facts we're looking at, They're looking at the fact that the U.S.

37:41is overextended, that we've pulled a lot of things into the Middle East, that we have sailors who are struggling aboard ships that we've used so much of our munitions stockpile and just are overall completely depleted and distracted. So they're trying to figure out how they can get out of this kind of grinding war that they're in, that they started with Ukraine. And one thing that they're seriously contemplating is what if we expand into NATO and basically dare the U.S. to do something about it and expose that the NATO alliance is basically dead? And I think the NATO alliance is effectively dead.

38:17Do you really think that if Russia struck inside of a NATO country that we would then go to war with Russia? Right. Do you really think that we would do that? They don't think so either. So that's another thing to keep an eye on here as Putin tries to figure out what his next move is going to be. because as much as the population in Russia has gone along with the war so far, and we were saying before, was really pretty supportive at the beginning, and the economy has been more resilient than one would have predicted, they're still taking a lot of losses. It is brutal. It is grinding. And it may be the case that there is more dissatisfaction there that we can see than we can see on the surface.

38:55So in any case, important to keep an eye on him and what he's up to and the deals that he's striking at these sorts of events. I think that the summit, it's going to be very interesting. The summit of Putin, or sorry, of Xi and Trump. Trump is going to just do his, I mean, he's going to flatter him. Yeah. But he's going to do his absolute best to get even a modicum of concession. And I don't see it right now from the Chinese side. They have held firm on the secondary sanctions thing. They said, go ahead, do it. They're like, well, we'll hit you right back. You think you'll like that? Major trade war with us in the middle of your inflation problems?

39:31problems, we are in a bad spot to demand really anything from them right now. And I'm very curious to see actually what comes out. Trump is going to want them to cut off Iran and to try to coerce North Korea. And why would they do that? Why would China, I mean, what do we, what leverage do we have? They have played, they have been so much more strategic in even locking up the critical supply lines that we know. We already know how this went because we tried to do this trade war with them and basically had to back down because we realized how much they could hurt our economy if push came to shove.

40:02So I don't see that that dynamic has changed. If anything, that dynamic has only strengthened. Agreed. All right, let's get to the bonds market. My name is Tuba Nguyen, and enrolling at Rasmussen University was essentially a handshake to a lifeline, a career, stability, and a future for myself. I found it important to be able to speak with instructors and staff outside of office hours, and to have that support system was essential because they believed in me. Rasmussen University. Are you ready to rewrite your story online and on campus? Learn more at rasmussen.edu.

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42:07Baja Mar, life spectacular. spectacular. This morning, we are tracking a massive global bond sell-off, which, of course, will have huge implications directly in your life. Let's go and put this up on the screen. This is something we've been following on the U.S. side for a while. This is from the Kobe Z letter. They say yields just won't stop. You know it's bad when bond market is quite literally ignoring the U.S. Treasury. That's a reference to Scott Besson's attempt to intervene in the bond market and to stop this sell-off that just continues without missing a beat. 24 hours later, and the 10-year note yield is now pushing into 4.8 percent, its highest since January 2025.

42:47That's another plus 20 basis points since the low seen after the U.S. Treasury's intervention announcement 13 days ago. So like I was saying before, even though the U.S. Treasury tried to intervene in an extremely significant way, the market has just completely ignored that. In a sudden turn of events, 7 % mortgages are back. The 10-year note yield is nearing 5%. Markets are expecting a September rate hike. This marks an 85-point basis point run in the 10-year note yield since the Iran war began. Once again, the U.S. simply cannot afford the 10-year note yield at 5 % for a sustained period of time.

43:23We expect further attempts at intervention immediately. But the question becomes, will markets listen? Let's go ahead and put this Wall Street Journal report up on the screen as well. Headline here is long-term global government bond yields hit fresh highs. The two-year yield reversed an overnight decline and edged higher. Long-dated bond yields reached new highs Monday as fresh military escalation between the U.S. and Iran lifted oil prices. Ten-year Treasury yield traded at 4.764 percent on pace for its highest settlement since January of 2025. Two-year yield reversed an overnight decline, edged higher, reaching 4.337 percent.

43:58It's not just here in the U.S. either. This is part of a global trend of the bond sell-off. So when bonds are sold off, you have to raise the interest rate in order to attract buyers. That's the way this works. What does this mean and what is causing it? Well, the causes are quite numerous. But one of the causes here in the U.S. is the concerns about inflation. You also have the concerns about the continued Iran war, about our overall stability as a nation, about the high level of debt. And then the other piece you have, Sagar, is because there is so much demand for cash right now for the AI build-out, that is part of what is crowding out investment in U.S.

44:40Treasuries. The impact that it has on your life, this impacts all interest rates that you would have to pay if you're borrowing money, if you're especially mortgage rates, in particular housing affordability obviously being a massive, massive issue. And then it makes our debt even more unsustainable than it already is. I've never been a fiscal hawk. The debt is going to kill us and we're going to have a crisis type of person. We're in a different world now, though, both because of the size of the debt, which has only escalated under the Trump administration, has been driven by numerous tax cuts for the rich over the years, but also because as the world moves away from the dollar as a reserve currency, that changes the dynamic, makes it a lot less easy for us to deal with this level of debt to service.

45:24So as those interest rates go up, that makes that debt so much more of a burden on our society. Yeah, I did not realize how actually crazy this is in terms of the international situation. So we're obviously nearing 2006 levels. But here's what the rest of the world is. Ten-year Japan, 3 % for the first time since 96. British 10-year, highest since mid-07. German, highest since 2011. Those are bad years, especially in the German case. I was in college at that time. I remember the whole discussion. They're like, oh, the Eurozone, it's going to blow up, and Greece, and all of the crazy protests that were happening.

46:00Obviously, the Japanese, they've had a crazy situation with interest rates for quite some time, but the British at 2007 in the United States now mimicking 2006. Similar situation here with the United States, 2006. We're bogged down in an unpopular war. We got a president near all-time low. We have high gas prices. In fact, the highest gas price of all time, inflation adjusted, is right around 2008. So you could see how we can mimic those same social conditions. The AI stuff is fascinating. But the biggest problem, as you were talking about with debt, is, and I have the numbers right here, gross national debt is$40 trillion.

46:36That's 120 % of GDP. Japan's national debt is now more than twice the size of its overall economy. France's public debt is now 117 % of GDP. And right now, there is no French bond yields have now climbed above Italy's, which is apparently an unprecedented situation in Europe because France economy is normally seen as some sort of a safe haven. So you put it all together, you have a declining Western international picture for their economy. The bond yields are squeezing people from both sides. So we have high cost of living and high inflation on top of very, very high borrowing costs. Then you also have the fluctuation for the mortgage rates and for savings CDs, all those other things.

47:19And especially the biggest impact on the consumer from what we understand is that it will stop any, not speculative growth per se, but small business borrowing costs, which is the lifeline of the economy and predominantly the people who will hire or fire based on interest rates, those are the people who have to pull back the most. And it means that the big guys, AI companies especially, who can afford the high interest debt are the only ones who will be able to borrow. So it gives a lot of top-heavy control to the corporations that are currently in control. Yeah, that's right. Japan is a very interesting example because they've had this very unique economic situation where they've had interest rates at zero for decades.

47:57They've had no inflation. So wages, prices, everything has stayed the same. And so under those conditions, when you have 0 % interest rates, guess what? It's not a big deal if your debt level is very high because you're not paying high interest on that. So they could handle that. That's why they have some of the highest debt, the highest debt level in terms of the developed world. Now that interest rates are going up, oh, suddenly this comes at a price. Suddenly this is going to be something we're actually going to have to reckon with. And with the U.S., it's the same. We're in a different position because the dollar continues to be the world's reserve currency.

48:32That gives us what has been described as an exorbitant privilege. How long does that last? Is that an indefinite situation? That's a big question. But as we pour more and more and more money into a military, which is failing dramatically on the battlefield, and we leverage our future in order to do so and are racking up these huge amounts of debt as the interest rate ticks up, that just becomes more and more difficult for us to deal with. Don't worry, though. Scott Besson says that the U.S. bond market is just fine and there's nothing to worry about. Let's go ahead and hear that. The U.S., the bond market is the most resilient in the world.

49:08And let's just level set here for a minute, Sarah. Everyone's talking about the U.S. bond market. U.S. bond market this month will have been the best performing bond market. The third year, the yield is down. The 10-year, the yield is flat. No other major bond market can say that. The 10-year yield is flat since President Trump came in. And I'm not hung up on what rating agencies say, but two weeks ago, Fitch reaffirmed the U.S. rating. That was an inconvenient truth, so it didn't get any publicity. So and if there were a problem in the U.S. bond market, Sarah, then people would be selling U.S.

49:47bonds and buying other countries bonds. But we are the best performing market. I mean, it's technically true. Yeah, that's right. That is a problem. That is sort of a global issue and certainly in the West. But, you know, the indication, oh, our allies are doing even worse than we are is not necessarily the own that you think that it is. Yes, exactly. Put the next one up here on the screen. This one was interesting, too, as well, in terms of explaining the Fed. So what they talk about here, Kevin Walsh, the Federal Reserve chairman, has said he wants bond investors to react to underlying changes in the economy rather than commentary from the central bank.

50:24But right now, they are doing the opposite. Since he became chairman, the three largest daily moves in the Treasury's yield curve have followed his appearances. What that means as to why it all matters is that he obviously not only was Donald Trump's pick, but he's also one where he's got some impetus right now where he needs both. He has a directive from Trump to cut rates because that's what Trump desperately wants. Trump said yesterday we could have 20 percent GDP growth if we just brought interest rates down, which I don't know has ever happened in the U.S. Maybe one time like ever since World War II.

51:02In fact, if you have 20 % economic growth, it's usually a problem. That means that you come out of a Great Depression or something. The point, though, that they were making was that Warsh was talking about inflation is not slowing, policy makers' quotes must be confident because the central bank has work to do, meaning it's currently priced in that he's more likely to raise interest rates. And that means apparently what it's doing is it's pushing the bond yield curve in exactly the direction that they don't want it to go right now. The only point that we're putting this is that it's not just the global situation with what's happening with Iran and, of course, just like weakening faith in overall Western economies.

51:43It's not just the AI build out. It's also the trouble with the Federal Reserve Chairman and his mandate to try to deal with inflation. So it's just all a bad situation, which puts, I mean, it's a morass, you know, trying to get anything done right now in the economy. I especially feel for anybody who's trying to buy a home because prices alone, I mean, 6.7 percent interest rates is just nuts. I don't even know what you do at that point. Every central bank in the world is basically facing the same situation because normally when you have inflation, as we're having and is likely to only escalate because of the Iran war, and also other factors, but in particular because of the Iran war, what do you do?

52:21You hike rates if you're, you know, president of a central bank. So that would, though, also increase, you know, the bond yields and increase those interest rates. So they're stuck in a very difficult position. If you lower rates, then, you know, you get that economic growth that Trump is after, but you also help to fuel further inflation. So that's the bind that basically every central banker in the world is facing right at this point. There's some other things going on in the economy that we wanted to flag for you. So let's put C4 up on the screen. Corporate profits are doing great, guys. So don't you worry about them.

52:57They're doing just fine. And there's a number of factors here. One of them is that you have homeowners whose home prices are still very high. So they have a lot of equity. so they're able to continue to spend. But a significant chunk of this increase in corporate profits is because of the tariff refunds, which we covered previously. But companies that paid the tariffs originally, now they are getting checks from the federal government, and that is helping to juice their profit level, even as very few of them are issuing any refunds to the consumers who paid that price on the back end through increased prices.

53:39So consumers really bore the brunt of the tariff cost, but it's these large corporations who are having their profit margins padded thanks to the tariff refunds. So it's just incredible in the American economy. It seems like no matter what happens, big corporations at the end of the day always reap the benefit. Yeah, they're like, well, the American incredible consumer, the ever resilient U.S. consumer is fueling the heftiest rise in big company profits in years. But the tariff refund is a significant part of that too. I mean, they give all kinds of examples. Garmin got a$21 million tariff refund, which boosted their margins late quarter.

54:17You had Costco, you had Walmart, Dollar General apparently had a similar actual boom. Apparently Best Buy said its shoppers are still continuing to buy up computers, TVs, and AI-enabled glasses, which I would personally ban if they were up to me. That's it. Yeah, the metaglasses, they need to go. Evil. Hate them. You see somebody wearing them, throw them in the trash. That includes you, Dad. Always watching. So a widely watched measure of consumer confidence, as we have right now, has slipped dramatically. Obviously, this consumer sentiment, it was a huge impact on Joe Biden and his presidency.

54:56We covered it day in and day out whenever it was happening because it was like month over month in 2022. That's exactly when Biden's chances really started to slip beyond even the conversations around his age. Consumer sentiment and inflation sank his presidency. And obviously, almost certainly one of the main reasons why Kamala ends up losing the election and the popular vote. And so you actually see a consumer sentiment, which has been in freefall since Trump took office, especially in the last six months, has now fallen for the first time actually in three months of a worsening economic outlook.

55:34And what they say is that the final reading is roughly around the median estimate, even for where things currently are. But what it does show is that you have a darkening economic picture for the overall U.S. consumer heading now into the most important quarter for the entire U.S. retail industry. So I feel like we talk about this every year is that holiday season, especially in retail, in some cases, many of these brands, between 40 to 80 percent of their entire year sales will happen during the holiday season. It gets cold and people go nuts buying Christmas gifts. Well, if you see even a five, 6 % reduction, that's a disaster to the bottom line of a lot of these places.

56:19Now, what they're saying, the companies is, well, the overall spending is at least remaining where it is. But I cannot just believe in price sensitivity. For example, I have to go to a cross-country wedding in a few months. I've had a kid, so I haven't done any cross-country airfare. So it's been like two years since I bought something. Holy shit. When I bought that flight, I could not believe the jet fuel surcharge of what it looks like. I was, this is, I mean, I'm telling you to fly to California, you know, two people in the North, I'm talking the economy class ticket. We are, look, it's like a thousand dollars.

56:57Insanity, you know, and even looking out for in the future. And I was looking at that, I go, there's no way that you can just expect vacation costs and all this other stuff to remain the same. If you're a family of four or a family of six, forget about it, man. You might as well drive three days or just not go, period. So that type of stuff, it's intuitive and obvious to me it is going to crush consumer spending. And by the way, travel is a key part of the Thanksgiving and the Christmas holidays as well. And I can't be the only one, especially when you're looking at those and you're like, I don't know about this.

57:27So you look at the bill, it's triple what it used to be. And that is going to be, I mean, there's just, eventually price sensitivity just has to set in for a huge portion. of the economy. Yeah. Corporate well-being has completely divorced from consumer and general American well-being. I think they used to be tied more closely together in the past, but it's just not reality anymore. And it's going to become even more divorced from corporate well-being when AI is more fully implemented into the whole situation. Because as companies figure out how to deploy AI in a way where they can reduce their workforce, then you have directly adversarial relationship between corporate profit levels and your average American.

58:09So something to look forward to in the future, guys. Yes, that's exactly right. All right, let's get to data centers. My name is Tuba Nguyen, and enrolling at Rasmussen University was essentially a handshake to a lifeline, a career, stability, and a future for myself. I found it important to be able to speak with instructors and staff outside of office hours, and to have that support system was essential because they believed in me. Rasmussen University Are you ready to rewrite your story? Online and on campus Learn more at rasmussen.edu Apple Vacations Where your story starts The Friends and Family Sale is here at Apple Vacations Book by September 24th And save up to 50 % on all-inclusive vacations With instant savings Whether it's a getaway with friends or a family vacation There's always a reason to make more memories With your favorite people Travel through August 2027 and start planning your getaway today at applevacations.com or with your trusted travel advisor.

59:09Apple Vacations, where your story starts. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Baja Mar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, the richly refined Rosewood, the playfully hip SLS, and the stylishly modern Grand Hyatt. With over 45 restaurants, bars, and lounges, Baja Mar serves up delicious dining from world-renowned chefs like Daniel Bouloud and Marcus Samuelson, nightlife venues like the new Jean Batiste Jazz Club, and the Caribbean's most luxurious casino. At Baja Mar, you'll find every pleasure under the sun and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like Baja Bay, our 15-acre lush tropical water park, interactive wildlife experiences, including our daily flamingo parade, world-class golf, tennis, spa, and so much more.

1:00:04Visit Bahamar.com today and discover a vacation destination where memories are made for a lifetime. Bahamar. Life spectacular. Turning now to data centers, Donald Trump weighing in on the data center issue. You would expect the man who won the popular vote to try to always pick the right side of an 80-20 issue. And yet, let's put this one up here on the screen. He says, this was totally unprompted by the way, The only reason that communities throughout the USA should not want data centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor. If they want to be successful and rich with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let data reign.

1:00:46Data and reign being capitalized. The good news is that there are plenty of other places that want them. If we want to kill the golden goose, capitalized, you will have only yourselves to blame. China could not be happier with this anti-AI data center movement. Actually, they can't believe it is happening. President Donald J. Trump. And you might ask, how are his supporters taking the news? And usually I don't do the comments thing. You know, I think it's unfair just because of the 99.91 rule on the Internet. But I think you can reasonably assume people who have a truth social account and post on the platform are Trump diehards.

1:01:24Can we assume that? More likely than not, yes. I mean, not even that. It's like, what, 99 percent? 99.9 percent? Yeah. So let's take a look at some of the replies on Trump's, again, own platform. You have lost your mind. You will be known as the president and Freemason who single-handedly destroyed a nation. God help you. What about our water supply? I regret ever supporting you. Guys, just keep these up. I'm going to read a lot of them. This statement is insane. I am already on water restriction. You are an idiot. You'll be a moneymaker, I suspect. Meanwhile, our lives get shittier with no water and more noise.

1:01:59Perhaps better messaging is in order? No one agrees with this, sir. Data centers are a gateway for the market of the beast and total control. We love you. I am MAGA. That will have always supported you. I hate communism. I understand they have convinced you this is right. That is a lie. We the people want to be free and have freedom and trust God and his constitution. We do not want control and surveillance. Those things promote communism. The people are awake to be convinced otherwise. A lot going on with that one. I mean, I think he's right. Let's discuss the power consumption issue. Horrendous messaging.

1:02:32I'd rather have clean water and less surveillance. You mean snap in line so me and my buddies can make more money while we use all your water, electricity, and create an ongoing sound that will drive you insane. I love you, DJT, but if you are concerned about windmills destroying birds and constant humming, then you need to go visit a neighborhood with a data center beside it. In Florida, where our aquifer is so fragile and water is so expensive, data centers are a real threat. The reason we have no data center signs in our yard is because we don't want electrical and water shortage. plain and simple, fix this and bring them on, not to mention the constant hum, put one next to Mar-a-Lago.

1:03:07And so that's a smattering of some of the replies that we have seen here, despite, I will say, you know, a lot of cheering from the tech community who have truly love, truly, you know, are in love with Trump's courage, they say, that are on this issue. You also had the vice president striking what I would say is a pretty different tone when he was asked about it. Let's take a listen. What the president said about data centers is they're an important part of the AI economy. When people build them, they have to build the power plants along with the data centers. I think probably 99 percent of the backlash to data centers has come in areas where building a data center means higher utility and higher electricity for the people on the ground.

1:03:47So I think what these companies have to do is take advantage of some of the federal deregulatory efforts that we've undertaken. And if you build the data center, you should be putting power back into the grid, not taking it out. And if that is happening, I don't think the data centers are that controversial. It's when the utility bills get so much higher, that's when it's a real problem. So I think that that was a very different tone is what I would say. But you also see how they're trying to feel their way through this because the administration is the most pro-AI administration probably in the entire world.

1:04:19I am genuinely, I can't even think of a single other leadership or government, which is this pro AI. They also have an alliance mostly with the tech industry of convenience, which is floating the entire U.S. economy and all of our GDP growth, which is all just data center spend. So they need it to continue. At the same time, every Republican politician who is in a remotely competitive race is lining up against data centers. So Mike Rogers, data center moratorium. Greg Abbott, data center moratorium. Ken Paxton, data center moratorium. Even the popular governors, people who have no chance at losing their election, are just making sure that their flank is covered.

1:05:04Josh Shapiro, who is against now data centers and said he's going to hold up all of their development. I mean, I could go on the list of Ron DeSantis talking about data centers. Byron Donalds is looking like he's going to be, whereas he's said some interesting things on data centers. It's also come out against flock cameras, for example. I mean, we're talking about this stuff bottom. Really, it's like a bottom to top level uprising, which is across the nation. We're going to talk about midterms here in a second. I was told, and I think you were out for this, the Texas conversation that Ryan and I had.

1:05:36I was told that the data center issue, if Greg Abbott is going to lose, and especially Paxton, it will almost certainly be because of depressed Republican rural turnout in West Texas. West Texans furious about the data center issue. And in particular, that's why, remember we played that Texas agricultural commissioner? That's why he was on television, on Fox News nonetheless, attacking the sitting governor, who is a Republican running, obviously, for re-election, an unprecedented fourth term. And he's like, oh, he's bought out by the data center industry. Ken Paxton similarly had to come out and put out his data center rights.

1:06:13Tallarico has been hammering him on that. I genuinely cannot think of a single Republican in a remote swing district, which is even sniffing the do you want to be backwards in poor territory. So the data center people are like, oh, this is a messaging problem. I'm like, no, you guys have a reality problem. Yeah. Like you really do. Well, it really is fascinating. I mean, first of all, Trump coming out and saying this, given how closely aligned all of these Republicans are to him, makes it very difficult for them to seem credible when they're coming out with their, oh, I'm actually against the data centers, or, oh, we have to require the data centers to do X and Y and Z before they locate in communities.

1:06:53And Abbott is a great example because he was singing a very different tune up until he started realizing the polling was really challenging. And then he flipped, same way Shapiro did in Pennsylvania, where he was celebrating on this big Amazon investment in our community. We're going to lead the way on AI. Not even a year later, suddenly he is issuing very different statements and killing off the fast track regulation that was going to allow all these data centers to pop up in Pennsylvania in a more rapid clip. And you can kind of understand why the politicians got this wrong, because as long as they've been in public office, bringing jobs and economic development into a community was nothing but a net positive.

1:07:36So it is interesting to delve into why it is different with the data centers. And we can put D5 up on the screen. This is from David Wallace-Wells, who digs into this in particular. His headline here for The New York Times is, I expected tech fatalism. Americans are putting up a remarkable fight instead. And he says, basically, first of all, the polling is extraordinary. It's 70 percent of Americans who are opposed to these data centers. That number has climbed dramatically in a very short period of time. So you have this very clear supermajority. It's Republican. It's Democrat. It's old. It's young.

1:08:12It's black. It's white. It's rural. It's urban. Very, very rarely do we see this type of consensus form in American politics. So he tries to dig into, OK, what is at the root of this? Because you can point to examples like Loudoun County, Virginia here, where they have had so much tax revenue flood into their county. They've been able to build new schools and new sports facilities and lower people's taxes. You would normally think that people would look at that and say, OK, great. We want that for us, too. He highlights a rural county where because of the tax revenue that came in to a place that was relatively depressed, they were able to give all of their teachers$50 ,000 bonuses.

1:08:51That was more than their salary in certain instances. Now, on the other side of things, Georgia just came out with a report. They're spending way more on tax credits than they're receiving in revenue. Overall, in Virginia, it's the same deal. But you could imagine a world where the industry really highlights these examples and towns are falling over themselves to have data centers located in their vicinity, especially places that have been really economically depressed, which is many, many, many places in America and especially in rural America. So what is it that's different about this? And I think you could see in some of those responses to Trump, you could see some of the specific concerns, a lot of concerns about water.

1:09:28One thing I've learned, you know, working on campaigns in rural America is there's deep concerns frequently. I think Maha touches on this about clean water and having control over their natural resources, a sort of conservation approach to environmentalism. You see that you obviously see concerns about the electricity rates. But I think and this is kind of what David Wallace Wells lands on as well. Those are the things that are expressed. There really is a deeper issue at stake here, which is do we have democratic control? in our lives, in our communities, in our country. We are so used to having everything forced down our throats, specifically from these tech oligarchs, that the ability to push back at all in any small way becomes extremely, extremely important and very, very motivating to clearly the vast majority of Americans.

1:10:19There are so few places at this point where we have the ability to exercise democratic input and control and say, no, we want a say over this. Data centers have become the flashpoint and the one place where we really feel like we can at least throw some sand into the gears. Maybe it's not going to slow the thing down, but at least we can make it a little bit more difficult for them. And so even though you have communities that stand theoretically to benefit from the tax revenue, even though that is the case, and even if you could assuage the concerns about electricity price hikes and water, some of which has frankly been overblown on the waterfront in particular, even if you could assuage those concerns, people still just want to be able to say, fuck you, not in my community.

1:11:04Right. And I'm glad you saw that. So the thing is, is that Karen Howe wrote that book and part, by the way, Karen, if you're watching, we've been trying to get you on the show. So I'd really like to get you here. And this is in no way like a total criticism, but you made an error in your book where she made a factor, a water claim about, I think she was off by like a factor of 1 ,000. So that is where a lot of the concerns come from. Now, I've been in a weeks-long fight with the data center guys, and they point, so the core disagreement is about what you said. They say incremental polling says that people are predominantly concerned over electricity, over water, and over noise.

1:11:39So on the waterfront, most of the water stuff is frankly bullshit. As they point to, data centers, even a hyperscaler data center, uses less water than a golf course. Now, we should probably have left golf courses, but that's going to be a separate conversation. The second one is about electricity. In some cases, there has been evidence that data centers, the power demand has initially led to a spike. However, it leads to an updating of the grid, and particularly renewable grid, and it could lower electricity price. And I'm being honest here, although there is, of course, going to be some surge in potentially power demand.

1:12:14On the noise front, that one I think is the most legitimate claim, and there's many cases. Sterling, Virginia, right here in Northern Virginia is, you know, exhibit A. However, that's eventually a solvable problem. So they're like, when we ask people what they're concerned about, that's what they say. But you and I know from having covering politics for so long is that people are very rarely actually honest about what they're concerned about. They cling to various different types of concerns when in reality it is about something much deeper. So I've talked about this before, like let's say with immigration.

1:12:48Is it about the border numbers specifically, or is it about the notion of sovereignty and control, right? I would say the latter, but you can't really give that option in a poll. You just have to intuit it, especially from where it's coming from. For me, what I think that much of this is coming back to, and this is what Wallace Wells points to, is that it's like this crazy coalition, in some cases of cranks and conspiracy theorists, in some cases of good old-fashioned NIMBYs, And in some cases of just people who don't really know why but are opposed to the technology. I think it's about fundamentally it's about AI and also an indictment of technology.

1:13:25So I gave that example in the recent meta loss, you know, the meta settlement that happened with the state's attorneys generals where they just have to admit more screen time has been bad. I think everyone intuits that the amount of time they spend on their phones using the internet and living a more, quote, digital future is not good for them. I think literally everyone thinks that. The data center people, and in particular the internet industry, they go, well, everyone uses our products. I go, yeah, heroin addicts use a lot of heroin. That doesn't mean that it's good for them. They might even say, oh, I love heroin.

1:13:57It's like, yeah, but it's also killing you. That's how I would point to it. I would also say, it's like you were talking about control. This is about the internet. The fundamental promise of the internet is that being more connected would bring us closer together. That has literally not happened. In every single case, more use of the internet for alleged social purposes has led to a decline in happiness and a reduction of actual sociability in the real world. Remember when Tinder came out and there was like a moral panic and they were like, oh my god, we're hooking up. Actually, no, teen sex is literally at all time low.

1:14:30It's like getting 18-year-olds to go out and meet someone for a date is apparently a monumental effort at this time. We thought that Facebook and all that would lead to more intrasocial connection. The opposite has happened, is that people have less friends than ever, and they spend all their time looking at some idiot influencer online, you know, dreaming about living their life, which is probably depressed and, you know, fake, actually, behind the scenes. Very hollow. Yeah, that's what's actually happened as a result of social media. So everyone knows, yeah, the internet is nice for iMessage, for email, and for being a better white-collar slave.

1:15:09Has it made your actual life a lot better? I just think the answer is no. And I think that's what the data center thing comes down to. So like you said, you have to intuit a lot of the social reasons why people say all kinds of things. And the water thing is convenient. I genuinely believe, though, and as is the case of Loudoun and in many of these other communities where they're coming in, they're like, oh, we're going to build you this. We're going to give you all these tax. People are still rising up and saying, no, you really got to interrogate why. Because it's not about water. It's not even just about electricity.

1:15:41It's really about the Internet. It's about control. It's also about private, you know, it's about private takeover. And I was just, you know, final thing is to come back to our entire segment yesterday about gain of function and the models. And so if we were to think of new frontier model development in AI as gain-of-function research, well, then why would we want to proliferate BSL-4 labs all over the entire nation? So I have to look at this thing, which is designed by their own admission to try and replace you, and you want to fund its own development. You might get some crumbs thrown at you, but in the long run, you're like, is this going to be good for me?

1:16:21I think that's what it all comes down to. And on the job piece, too, in a lot of these communities, the people who are going to be getting the jobs are not the people who currently live in the community. Right. So you've also had a lot of, like, displacement of people who are longtime residents and the rent goes up. And so, yes, the town is more economically prosperous, but it didn't necessarily benefit the people who had already been living there. So I think that's an important piece as well. Let's put the D4 up on the screen. You can see that the data center people know they've got a big problem on their hands in terms of public sentiment.

1:16:55And so what are they doing? They're going to spend lots and lots and lots and lots of money, in particular in battleground states, to try to push a pro data center and pro AI message. Build American AI, an advocacy group tied to pro-AI super PAC leading the future, spending big on the AI data center fight, Axios writes, with plans to pour millions of dollars into battleground states. According to an announcement shared first with Axios, data center backlash becoming a defining issue of the midterms. Supporters of the developments are punching back. Build American AI, a 501c4 nonprofit, has about$50 million in cash on hand.

1:17:32Group's campaign will begin in Kansas, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Kansas. Very interesting. Close polling there in the Senate race. Quite shockingly, the money will go toward paid advertising, grassroots engagement, research, earned media and public education, public education. OK, so in any case, they are planning a big spending push. And this comes on the heels of remember, we reported on that Republican memo to the AI folks saying, hey, you've got a big problem here. Like if you want us to support data centers, You need to change the narrative because this is political poison for us and we're getting killed over it.

1:18:08And you've seen the way that Republican politicians have very quickly changed their tune in the in recent weeks and months after they've realized what a dire issue this is for them and their political standing. So in any case, you can count on the tech oligarchs to flood the airwaves with all sorts of pro data center propaganda. Will it work? We'll see. I think it will eventually work, and I hate to say that. And the reason why is, look, they're at their nadir. They know they need to spend a lot of money. They're going to take a huge hit in the midterms, and this whole moratorium thing is going to happen.

1:18:43They're just going to have to pivot to what we were saying earlier. They're going to have to literally shower these communities with as many dollars as they can. But the question, and when I say work, is that presumes that they're going to keep having that unlimited budget. and that this thing isn't going to go bust. You know what's interesting, though? I was just looking. Loudoun County is the place where you can point most clearly to the benefits, like I said before. Taxes have gone down for the residents. Huge amount of tax revenue flowing in, new schools, new sports facilities, all this kind of stuff in a county that, by the way, was already relatively healthy.

1:19:14I was going to say, I saw Tricia McLaughlin say yesterday, she was like, this is why Loudoun County is rich. I'm like, what are you talking about? This is one of the richest places in America. Yeah. A bunch of defense contractors and government excretions. People are getting rich off the Iran war. So anyway, one was doing pretty good to start with. Now they're doing even better. OK, so you would think that the residents of that town would be like, I am personally benefiting from the data center push. And so I would like to see more of this. They are facing a huge backlash. And so the elected leadership in the county have pulled back and made it more difficult to locate new data centers in the county because the residents there have also shifted along with the national mood against data centers, even as, you know, they are a walking billboard for the economic fruits that can be delivered from allowing these data centers into your community.

1:20:04So that to me is also evidence that there's something very deep that's going on here with regards to how Americans are feeling about these things being located in their communities. That goes beyond the environmental concerns, goes beyond the electricity bill concerns. Because again, many Loudoun County residents, a little bit of a hike in their electrical bill is not going to kill them and they're getting a lot of benefits. These people are filthy rich. On the other side of things as well. So in any case, I think it does go to this deeper sense of a loss of control and wanting to have input on what the future is.

1:20:38So I thought that was pretty interesting that even in a place like Loudoun, there has been this same backlash against data centers. I agree. Meta with Louisiana will be the more interesting test to me. So Meta showered this Louisiana community with tons of money. He's giving them like you just said, oh, all these promises. except the big question is going to be, are the dollars going to stay forever? As in, we all know they make big promises. They might build the data center. One guess that I'd really like to try and book are these unions. And this is like a fascinating tension for the left. There are a bunch of unions that are here in the DMV area who are all now saying, we're not going to endorse any candidate who's against data centers because the electricians and the blue-collar workers which help build these things, They're making, you know, tons of money because a lot of it is needed in the interim.

1:21:29So that is an interesting tension, too. And I think it's actually worth talking to some of those folks and being like, OK, like, you know, yeah, it's good for you. What do you make of it in a bigger societal context? You are building out the infrastructure for people who are telling you they want to replace all labor. So it seems like a very short-sighted move. But, of course, they're balancing, OK, we need new members and new jobs right now. And also for them, they're like, oh, yeah, you can't automate me. He's like, you can't automate an electrician or a steam fitter. That's the goal, ultimately.

1:21:59That is ultimately the goal. Yeah, a friend of mine who's an electrician in a union who works on a data center, first of all, told me that they receive bomb threats. That's crazy. Regularly. Regularly. It's not reported. Second of all, there was a hearing, a local hearing about a new data center and the union was trying to get workers to come and testify and speak in favor of it. And, you know, basically they would be the only ones that would be there on the pro side is the way that these things go down. So in any case, a lot of interesting dynamics there. That's cool. All right, let's get to midterms.

1:22:40My name is Tuva Nguyen, and enrolling at Rasmussen University was essentially a handshake to a lifeline, a career, stability, and a future for myself. I found it important to be able to speak with instructors and staff outside of office hours, and to have that support system was essential because they believed in me. Rasmussen University. Are you ready to rewrite your story online and on campus? Learn more at rasmussen.edu. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. The Friends and Family Sale is here at Apple Vacations. Book by September 24th and save up to 50 % on all-inclusive vacations with instant savings.

1:23:22Whether it's a getaway with friends or a family vacation, there's always a reason to make more memories with your favorite people. Travel through August 2027 and start planning your getaway today at AppleVacations.com or with your trusted travel advisor. Apple Vacations, where your story starts. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine. and the cool Bahamian breeze. Baja Mar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues, Jean Batiste's all-new jazz club, the Caribbean's most luxurious casino, and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like our 15-acre tropical water park, wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course, and so much more.

1:24:08Visit Baja Mar.com today. The Bulwark was able to get their hands on leaked audio from a private meeting of an Oklahoma Republican who is sounding the alarm about how screwed the Republicans are for the midterms. Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen. Stephanie Bice, representative from Oklahoma, says the challenge we have is that we have to get over the narrative that I don't like this guy, so I'm going to vote for the Democrat. Because I'm telling you right now, I'm hearing it already. And what happens is that'll impact me. Because two things will either happen. They're going to vote for the Democrat, and they may split the ticket and vote for me and a few others.

1:24:47Or this is my bigger fear right now. People don't go vote. Bice's comments were made to a gathering of Republican students at Oklahoma State University on Thursday evening, provide a rare glimpse into the gloom some elected Republicans feel about the impending midterms. Talking to the students, she relayed a recent conversation she'd had with a Republican executive who described the president in very negative terms. So in any case, you've got, again, we're talking about Oklahoma here, one of the most Republican places in the entire country. And a representative there is even concerned about the number of Republicans who either may split ticket or just stay home.

1:25:27All of this relates, of course, to the economic situation crafted and created by Trump. The fact, as we covered earlier, consumer sentiment is way down. Inflation concerns way up. People are extremely, they feel betrayed by Trump's handling of the economy and especially his decision to start the Iran war. We've got Harry Enten talking about the numbers for Trump on inflation in particular and with independence. Let's go ahead and take a listen to that. Look at this on inflation, independence on Trump and inflation. In August of 2024, look at that. He was more trust on inflation by 12 points over Kamala Harris, a very big reason that he won.

1:26:06I don't know why that green isn't going. Let's see. No, it's not going. Isn't that interesting? Anyway, that was the reason he won, right? Plus 12 points. Look at this net approval rating now, though. Whoa, way down there. We're talking about, what is that? We're talking about a 76-point switcheroo on the president of the United States, an issue in which he beat Kamala Harris by 12 points on. He is now 64 points underwater. You don't see changes like this. But the key issue, that guy I'm elected, now he's way down there in the Gulf of Mexico. In August of 2022, look at that. The Republican Party was trusted more among independents by 27 points, 27 points four years ago.

1:26:44Look now who independents trust. They now trust Democrats by 18 points. What is that, Johnny B? That's a 45 point switcheroo. You can see that the chance of gas will be above three dollars and 50 cents a gallon election day. Way up. It was about 50 50 at the end of June. Now we're talking much closer to about 80 percent. They're in about to get the couchy odds in there. Yeah. Disgusting. Thank you, Harry. In any case, you saw a nearly 50-point shift towards Democrats on inflation. And I think that we have seen the way that inflation concerns are incredibly powerful in voters' minds as they head to the polls.

1:27:21So this is probably the single factor that is dooming Trump and the Republicans' post right now. No question. You can even see some of this in Ken Paxton's answer when he's asked, actually literally on Fox News, about his poor polling. Take a listen. It shows Tallarico with a pretty solid lead over you. in three congressional districts that the president carried by double digits. You're down eight points in the 15th, 10 points in the 28th, and 11 points in the 34th district. This is Texas, after all. How did a Democrat get that far ahead in Trump territory? Well, first of all, I don't trust all these polls.

1:27:56We have our own polling that suggests maybe a little different result, but we definitely have a close race. And we're in the middle of midterm elections where the party in power often has a much bigger challenge. But the reality is this is a Republican state. If Republicans get out to vote, we're going to win this race. And this guy has not been exposed for his record of eight years. The media doesn't cover it. He doesn't talk about his record. He doesn't talk about his record. And he claims that we're going to call him a socialist. Yes, we are. The guy has complete socialist views. And I can tell you this, I do not believe once we have the resources to expose his views, there's no way he's going to win Texas.

1:28:33Yeah, I'm going to get to the resources in just a second. But one more question on this polling, because it does have you running about 20 points behind President Trump's margin in these three districts. And I hear your point that it's just one poll and that you don't believe it. But is there an issue here with the Trump voters not transferring to you? Do you see the claims about an electability problem or is there anything happening right now with the Trump South Texas coalition that Republicans should be concerned about? No, I just don't think they know the other side. They don't know what James Tallarico is all about.

1:29:09He's this sort of unnamed guy that they have no idea what his views are. In South Texas, his views on transing kids, on boys and girls sports, and voting for a state income tax, on saying that the oil and gas industry should be basically dismantled and that you can't be a Christian if you support the oil and gas industry. These are all things that in South Texas, when you're claiming that there are six genders and that modern science has proven it, those are not going to go well in South Texas. Well, not so so. So you could see how he's – she kind of pressed him there on why you think you're sub-20.

1:29:43And we covered some of that polling. And you're like, dude, if that – first of all, look, the culture war stuff, I don't even disagree. But I'm like, is that really going to hit in an inflation plus eight or whatever environment, especially when you're sub-20? And the second thing is his general lack of enthusiasm and infrastructure around him. It's actually shocking. So I saw today for the first time there's$15 million that will be supporting him on the airwaves. That is the first big money that's actually been come out for Ken Paxton. The other big problem for Paxton was because the National Republican Senatorial Committee went so hard against him in the primary, they're not going to put much money in his race whenever it comes to Tallarico, which means he needs Trump's MAGA Inc.

1:30:24to come and save him. Except Trump wants to run a bunch of ads how awesome he is about how awesome Trump is. and that all he told the midterm candidates he's like just say about how incredible i am it's all a messaging issue so obviously paxton is like but he can't tell trump please don't do that because that would sink me in any of these races they need the pack to come in and hit tallarico on texas specific issues so that's just where it all starts to fall apart yeah well and he's got the problem too cornyn just came out said he's not gonna campaign for no no so you've got this bitter divide in Texas politics.

1:30:57Now, Tallarico also has this issue with Jasmine Crockett, who's like not going to campaign with him as well. That is a big problem. The black vote in the urban area of Texas, that's a problem. If I had to bet, though, I think that most black voters in Texas are going to be highly motivated to vote against the Republicans having nothing to do with James Tallarico or Jasmine Crockett would be my vote, my guess. And that is what the polls seem to be reflecting at this point. So and in a year when Republicans are already disenchanted and demotivated to also have this divide in the Republican Party between Cornyn and Paxton is a big problem with Paxton has all kinds of disgusting scandals that people know about that have been covered extensively in Texas politics.

1:31:40So he's got those issues as well. But that polling that Fox News was pressing him on is pretty stunning. You're talking about districts that Trump won in certain cases by double digits that now, again, according to the polls, are going double digits for Tallarico. That is a huge shift. And Paxton cannot win. If those numbers are real, Paxton cannot win. And even the top of the day, Greg Abbott might be in trouble if that's the kind of landscape that you're ultimately looking at. I don't know how much stock to put in this. I saw a poll this morning that actually has Darlene Graham losing in South Carolina.

1:32:14Now, I think Darlene Graham is going to win in South Carolina. But it shows you that they're going to have to spend in places like South Carolina, in places like Kansas, potentially in Mississippi. There are all kinds of states where in order to make sure that the Republican wins a race that should be an absolute gimme, they're going to have to actually get in and spend money. And so, you know, it looks like Paxton's going to be left on his own. And Tallarico, meanwhile, is an absolute fundraising juggernaut. Let's put E3B up on the screen as the latest poll out of Michigan with regard to Abdul Saeed.

1:32:45There's been a couple now that show him with a four-point lead over Mike Rogers. That's the top line. You have Rogers winning white voters 49 to 43, Abdul winning black voters 77 to 9. So it does not appear that this concerns about, you know, black voters and antipathy towards the Arab-American community is showing up, at least in the polls here. You never know. Let's take all the polls with a grain of salt, of course. Abdul absolutely crushing in the youngest demographic, 62 to 31. Also in the next demographic, 35 to 49, he's up 48 to 38. In the older voters, Rogers has a lead. His biggest lead appears to me among Gen X-ish voters, 52 to 36, narrowly winning boomers by three points, at least again, according to this poll.

1:33:31And on the gender divide, Rogers has a 52-41 edge over Abdul among men, and Abdul has a 53-34 advantage among women in the state of Michigan. And if you drill down further into this, Abdul is winning both college and non-college women. Rogers is winning non-college men and basically even with college-educated men. So very interesting in the state of Michigan. But I think if you had to bet, just because of the year and how much Democrats have the win at their back, and also now Mike Rogers has taken what I have to think is an unpopular position in Michigan with regard to the Canada trade war. You know, he saddled with a lot of Trump baggage and data center thing.

1:34:16I was saying he's a fool. Yes. He's against it completely. And Abdul has been dealing with all of this Hassan Piker derangement situation, freak out. All of that's been going on. People have not really had they have not had the chance to make the case against Mike Rogers aggressively. This is a guy that was supporting the Iran war for literally decades. I mean, this is someone who has been on board and pushing all sorts of lies about their nuclear program for years and years and years. So on one of the issues that voters are most upset about, Mike Rogers is not only on the wrong side of that. He's been on the wrong side of it for decades at this point.

1:34:52Yeah, I'm looking at some of these latest ones. Nate Silver has the aggregate. I mean, D plus four is obviously the best result. But there was a more recent one, Susquehanna, just a couple of days ago, which had Abdul up by seven points, 46-39. That fits kind of with my modal kind of where I think things are going to go. And I just think this is where the trends matter. If you have a guy who lost in a wave to Republican election, how are you supposed to win in a Democratic wave election? I mean, it defies logic. Like, why would you nominate the same person? And Rogers, I mean, he's a good point.

1:35:29It's just one of those where it honestly makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills where people are acting as if he did not just run two years ago and lose whenever Donald Trump won the state by a percentage point or more. He was up against the electoral juggernaut of Alyssa's luck. Right. That's what I mean. It's like one of the most unimpressive women in all politics. Like, OK. And so if you're going to lose to her, how exactly are you going to win right now? That was with every conceivable thing going right. for a Michigan Republican, and you still were not able to win. You lost by like 0.2 or something like that.

1:36:05So first of all, it proves that there were split ticket voters who were Trump's lacking voters. There's actually a decent number of them in Michigan. How many of those people are actually going, who were already trusting of Trump and still were willing to vote Democrat, how many of those people are going to trust Trump on this one? He's not even on the ballot to follow him in the race. That's why structurally, I'm like, he has no chance. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, I guess, for Abdul's chances. But to me, it was either Stevens or Abdul. Either of those are winning, in my opinion. I just didn't even think it was a question.

1:36:39That's why that was the real race. Mallory McMorrow, Abdul, Haley Stevens. All three were winning. I think any one would have won. It was more of an internecine conflict because it's kind of you knew that going in. Tallarico is a very different story because it's probably the only— Crockett, even in the wave, I don't think she had a chance. where with Tallarico, I'm like, yeah, maybe. He fits the right. He's got the fundraising thing on his side. He's campaigned well. He's got a ton of money on his side. It hits the new engaged political demographic of Texas perfectly. The white middle class liberal woman who's very activated, who may have voted for Mitt Romney or something in the past.

1:37:15I absolutely could see something like that happening. So I look at all that. I also structurally, this was fascinating, E5. I had not considered this, and it's such a smart point from Jonathan Martin, is one of the nightmares which happened in the GOP for the midterms was that neither Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito announced their retirement. And the point that he makes is that for Republicans to come out in an unpopular election, they need a reason. So we know if you're a Republican and you're running in a midterms, like what is your agenda? To do what? Like they literally are not even telling you to just stop the Democrats from doing whatever they're going to do.

1:37:59I'm like, okay, well, what you're doing right now sucks. So why would I come out to vote? Well, one of the enduring things they've always been able, especially to get their base to come out to vote for, is the Supreme Court. And so I didn't even think about it, but they're totally right, is that if they were going to resign, now would have been the time when they have the slight majority in the Senate. and then they could have gotten their guys through. And so if they were going to make sure that they really wanted people to come out and vote, you would announce your retirement and you would say, I'm going to retire after the midterms.

1:38:30And that would mean people would be like, oh my God, we got to come out to vote to make sure that we can confirm these just, you need to make it real for a lot of these people. And I'm not joking. That would be a significant reason why a lot of people would come out to vote. You can imagine on the Democratic side too, a lot of people, Roe versus Wade, people were like, oh, whoa, like I have to come out and vote for this. Very motivating. Yes. In 2018. And even though it still wasn't a great year for them, it would have been a lot worse if you didn't have the Kavanaugh fight. And that led to a lot of especially places that were red that Democrats thought they had a shot at in the closing weeks with Kavanaugh front and center.

1:39:04that really shifted things against Democrats in more difficult terrain. And it's been a long time for some of our younger listeners. You not remember this. Trump putting out the list of conservative justices and being like, these are the people I'm going to nominate. That was massive for the evangelicals. A huge number of them were like, I don't like the guy. He's got Pence. He's got the list. Let's go for it. Honestly, it's like a forgotten memory at this point. And obviously it works. It's one of the great gambles in their history. And so not having an affirmative reason to keep the Senate is a huge problem, I think, for a lot of these Republican candidates.

1:39:41He writes in this piece, he's focused on the Midwest and talking about Ohio and Kansas and Iowa. He says every wave election brings a late surprise. If conditions deteriorate, there's a chance Nebraska, Kansas, and even Mississippi could fall. The culprits are obvious, the exorbitant cost of living, Trump's deep unpopularity with the political center and the massive enthusiasm gap Democrats enjoy over Republicans. Now, that would be extraordinary if you had 10 percent any of those Nebraska, Kansas or Mississippi. I do think Dan Osborne has a shot in Nebraska. We have seen polling in Kansas that has it very close.

1:40:18I don't know the dynamics in Mississippi, to be perfectly honest with you. I haven't tuned into it. But let's go and put Nate Silver's projections up on the screen here. This is E4. He's got the Democrats leading by 7.7 points on the generic ballot. That's a very large lead. It's been relatively stable, but you can see it increasing bit by bit over time. And I'll just say, like, the Midwest being crucial in this, Iowa and Ohio in particular, is a real problem for Republicans because these are states they should win easily. However, they are also states that have been hurt the most by Trump's trade wars and by the Iran war.

1:40:59So Iowa is, at this point, tilt-dem at least. And at the governor level in Iowa, it's really looking like Democrats are going to win that seat. The other state to pay attention to is Alaska, where they have this very unusual political system. They do a jungle primary, and then they do actually top four, I think, runoff. In any case, Mary Peltola, the Democrat, as more votes have come in, she is very close to winning 50 percent in the primary. So one of the big, you know, the big groups that rates these races just shifted this more towards Democrats because of her performance in the primary. It's one thing to look at polls.

1:41:38It's another thing when voters actually show up and vote. For her to be at very close to 50 % in that race, in that initial test, is highly significant. It indicates she's got a real path to be able to win in Alaska. So that would be huge. We talked about Tallarico. I think Abdul's going to be fine. Troy Jackson seems to be coasting at this point against Susan Collins. Again, the polls have been wrong there in the past. You never know. She seems to have some extraordinary superpowers looking very good for him. North Carolina's basically a lock. Sherrod Brown looking very strong in Ohio. Iowa looking very good.

1:42:10So it's going to be it's going to be very interesting. And I think what we've seen in the special elections, putting all the polls aside, is that huge enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, where Democrats are winning in places that they didn't even think would be possible. All the caveats aside. So Iowa, they have it within like point two. I mean, we did just have an election where the Iowa poll was like the most catastrophically historically wrong. Right. So you should definitely take that. She wasn't wrong with the Starly Sogber. Sure. We'll go with that. who else am I thinking? Oh, South Carolina.

1:42:43What does that remind me of? Remember Jamie Harrison? He raised like 15, 20 million dollars to lose by the same amount as his predecessor. Or like Amy McGrath in Kentucky. Oh my gosh. She raised like 50 million. Oh my gosh. I'm trying to remember Sarah something against Susan Collins. They had her winning by 12. She lost by five or something. So this stuff can be wrong all the time. Do not, you know, take any of this stuff with a grain. But it's worth thinking through some of the crazy scenarios. I'm trying to think. I don't even remember the last Democrat from Nebraska. The Cornhusker kickback is coming to mind.

1:43:18Oh, yeah. Something about... Is that Ben Sass? No, no, no. Sorry, that is Republican. What was that? This is like 2008. Oh, my God. Yeah, the Cornhusker kickback is coming to mind. So, like, these are things I've read about in books. You know, I was a child, literally, when this stuff was happening. I'm trying to think, too, where you also had... I think there was a Democrat, not from Mississippi, per se, but there were definitely Democratic senators. I knew Ben. I knew it was Ben. Mine wanted to say sass, yeah. Right, so Ben Nelson, Dick Lugar, remember? These are old figures. But they could come back, you know, some of these folks.

1:43:52These types of, I don't even know, blue dogs. It's not the right word because things have just changed so much. But we shouldn't assume. 2010 was the year that all politics became completely national. And in such a way where partisanship dominated. The people like Susan Collins who were able to define national trends just shrank to a tiny number of the Murkowski and the Collins. That's why we literally know their names. But we shouldn't assume it's an ironclad rule of politics. We were interested in politics before 2010. It was a given that you would have Democratic senators from Louisiana or from, I don't know, I'm thinking Tennessee, Al Gore.

1:44:30It's like these things have existed in our modern lifetimes. There's no reason that it can't switch back. We already lived through an extraordinary election. 2024 was an insane election, literally, where a Republican wins a popular vote. There's no reason why things can't shift dramatically from there, too. There's just no reason to assume, and I always encourage people to do this. Look at the 96 electoral map compared to 2000. The 96 map where Clinton wins an overwhelming number of states and how razor-tight things are for W. and Gore four years later. Like our politics can change on a statewide level, even significant margins, like even on 10, 12 percent in different directions in just a matter of four years or even two years.

1:45:12I mean, Obama won Iowa. He won Indiana. You know, he won Florida. So, yeah, you it's easy to feel like this is all very static. But especially with how much rural America has been screwed and for how long. And I think that farmers are really, you know, they culturally they're with Trump. there's a lot of just Republican DNA there. They were really willing to give them some bandwidth to operate with the tariffs in the first term. But it has just been one blow after another. And so for the family farmers that are still hanging on, they're calling it farm apocalypse. It's a matter of how many bankruptcies there are going to be because of the cost of fertilizer.

1:45:52Also, there's been they've faced a lot in terms of just climate and drought. So there's that. And then you have the diesel costs, which are so high. They are just getting screwed and completely devastated. So at some point, you have to think that shows up at the ballot box. Like people will take it for some time. But eventually, if they feel screwed over and ignored for long enough, they will make other plans. They will make other choices. Or they just won't vote, which is enough of it. That's the Texas scenario. I don't think any of these West Texas Republicans are going to vote for a Democrat.

1:46:23But if you just don't vote and a bunch of. I think Latinos could shift quite significantly. That's not Texas. No, that's for sure. But I meant, you know, the traditional crusty white ranchers. I'm like, these people are not liberals. Like they're not coming out to vote for Tallarita. Oh, those ranchers are pissed right now. But they are mad. They are pissed. But they may just not vote. They might just come out and say, screw you, Ken Paxton. Screw you, Greg Abbott. let's see where things go in a different direction. That, I could see that kind of alchemy come together in a perfect storm, really, against a lot of the Republicans.

1:46:53But that's, you know, who knows? All right, we've got Hassan standing by. Let's get to it.

1:47:14I have been with Rasmussen University since 2013. All virtual. All of my professors throughout the entire journey have been nothing but supportive of making me reach my dreams. Rasmussen professors, they want to see you grow so that you can be what you went to school to be. I'm so thankful for Rasmussen University for being able to make it so easy and seamless. Rasmussen University. Find your seat and start now at rasmussen.edu. This episode is supported by FX's The Drop, a snowfall saga. Wanda and Leon are back, but this time they're chasing a different kind of legacy. As West Coast rap begins to take over 90s Los Angeles, Wanda is betting on a new generation of artists.

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