9/10/26: Trump Offers $5k Midterm Bribe, Oil Prices Spike Amid Houthi Attacks

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2:05Trump is hosting his big midterm convention down in Texas, where in perfect Trumpian style, he is the keynote speaker both nights. So it kicked off last night and he unveiled a new promise to the American people. Let's take a listen. If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our economic, tremendous economic success, like in history, we've never had anything like what's happening. But because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for$5 ,000.

2:51I mean, you could just do it now since you have Republican majorities if you actually wanted to do such a thing. But, you know, I'm still waiting on my doge check. I'm still waiting on my tariff rebate check. So this is the third major I will just give you money promise that Trump has made. It's all rolled into one. You get your dividend together. All right. $5 ,000 dividend. I'm sure that all the Republicans in Congress definitely support this idea, right? Oh, yeah. I'm sure they're lining up to vote for the new$1.2 trillion stimulus this would be. Billy,$1.3 trillion, actually, in terms of, quote, how you're going to pay for it.

3:28I believe the justification is that because we've taken in— How many Iran wars does it cost? We've taken$300 billion in tariff revenue in. And so that means that we could give out$1.3 trillion in dividend checks. I mean, listen, Ryan joked Democrats should just be like, fuck it, we'll give you$10 ,000. Absolutely. I mean, you know, I don't hate it. Like, you know, people have been suffering. You could call it the gas check or something like that. I mean, I just, the broader political, I mean, number one, it's not happening. So let's just be clear about that. Number two, I don't think people will believe that it's going to happen.

4:03Because it's like, okay, again, there have been a lot of promises made that have not been kept in terms of, oh, we're totally going to give you a check. and number two, you do have control right now. So how about you go ahead, if this is something you're serious about, you could go ahead and do it and then maybe we vote for you because you actually showed some care and concern for the American people versus the things you've been saying routinely, which is that you don't give a shit about the material conditions of the American people. Catherine Rempel over at Washington Post has, or sorry, Bulwark has this.

4:34$5 ,000 stimulus checks were promised via Doge. $2 ,000 stimulus checks were promised via tariff dividend. $1 ,000 checks via a savings from the expiring ACA subsidy. Oh, I forgot about that one. And$5 ,000 dividend now if Republicans win the midterms. Coincidentally, I believe that this$5 ,000 would be just enough to make up for the overall price increase that I will pay over the course of a year from the ACA subsidy expiring. So it's just my personal case. And then how far does it cover the additional gas prices? Of course, you have electric cars. I have electric cars. It's a little different.

5:06Although I paid more for it than most people pay for a gas vehicle. So yeah, I'm doing all right. But, you know, overall, I don't think that this – look, it comes down to trust. And remember, I think back to Trump literally won the 2020 election if he had been able to pass those final stimulus checks. Do you remember this entire thing with the Georgia runoff elections and everything? If Trump had actually promised to just pass a final stimulus check, I genuinely think he would have won the election. And not only that, Mitch McConnell could have easily made sure that neither of those Democrats were able to win in those Senate seats if he had allowed that.

5:43Now, did Trump use any of his political authority to push that through? No. Ultimately, the doge actually didn't save us any money at all. Don't believe me. Believe the official United States government statistics if you want to go and check that. That's the problem, is that there's a huge trust deficit, and this comes off as desperate whenever it comes to Trump. and especially because every single one of us knows that Trump is not actually going to put all of his political capital behind this. Now, let's be fair. If he wanted to, he actually could. Remember when Trump promised that he was gonna cut all social security tax?

6:17He actually did that. Yeah, it worked out for boomers and everybody was like, oh yeah, and they put that into the big, beautiful bill. They also did it for no tax on tips, which I guess give a credit, although it's being horrifically abused right now in terms of the tax code. So you can see how when he wants to do something and actually ram it down people's throats, it can happen. You'd be better off doing it right now. I mean, the United States Senate, they're not even back in session till next Tuesday, I'm pretty sure. Call them back. You have the authority as president. Be like, I'm calling back both houses of Congress.

6:52I spoke to Speaker Johnson. I spoke to Leader Thune. We're immediately going to advance this legislation and every American will get it on Wednesday, election day, November 5th on November 4th. With his name on it. Who gives a shit? Sure, yeah. Remember in 2020, part of how it was so close, when all the polls had it being a total blowout, was because he'd sent out stimulus checks during COVID with his name on it. And we covered those Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley who were like, I don't know, it seemed pretty good to me. I got this check with his name on it, so I'm voting for him again. So, you know, it can be very powerful.

7:27I think he learned that lesson, but when your approval rating is in the toilet and you've already done the like, I'm going to give you checks things repeatedly, and then it hasn't come through. I don't know how powerful this is going to be. Another thing that was very significant here is that he said specifically that you should act as if I am on the ballot, which we'll talk about it on the other side, but it's kind of an interesting thing to say at a time when you're hovering in like the low 30s with your approval rating with the American public. This is D1. Let's take a listen. The choice in this election, is very, very simple.

8:03Democrats are asking you to vote for their failed far-left agenda. It's never worked. That destroyed your finances and delivered you four years of disaster, bedlam, and death under sleepy Joe Biden. And I'm asking you to let us finish the job we began with the greatest two years in the history of the presidency this has been the most successful two years financially and every other way in the history of the presidency so I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot I'm on the ballot I'm on just one more time because if we lose you're going to lose your border you're going to lose your tax cuts.

8:53You're going to lose your safety and security. You're going to lose your wealth. Our country is going through hell. You will be going through hell just like you did just two years ago. Go through hell like you did two years ago. How's it going right now? If you ask most Americans, they'll say that they are financially worse off and worse off in general under the Trump presidency. So it's pretty wild to say it's been the most successful two years in the history of the presidency. And he's not wrong that it is sort of like he's on the ballot. I mean, it will be a referendum on him. I'm not sure that it's smart for him politically to completely own that.

9:30Just as you remember when Obama said with Hillary, act as if I'm on the ballot and then she loses. Well, you know, that is a bit of a referendum on you and how people felt about the legacy of your presidency. I played that clip in my very first rising monologue ever. I remember that. My name is on the ballot. Justice is on the ballot. That's why you got to go out and vote for Hillary. Well, yeah, it doesn't really work out for Mr. Trump. I do think, it really is fascinating to me that he survives, whether it is at the 90 criminal charges, he survives everything the media ever threw at him. He survives literally a decade in public life.

10:12Stormy Daniels, Access Hollywood, Charlottesville. I mean, January. I could go on forever. And every single one, he comes out stronger. He wins the popular vote, probably one of the most stunning victories in modern American history in terms of expectation versus reality. First Republican to do so since 2004. Unambiguously has literally the culture on his side. How did it all just go like this? It really is Iran. Like, if you take a look, I'm not saying that he wasn't unpopular or divisive, but in my opinion, you know, prior to Iran, this would have been one of those classic elections where you're going to get blown out in the House, 2018 style.

10:53But those closer Senate races, they're in contention. I think Ken Paxton wins easily if there is, not easily, but two to three points, just Tobito style versus Ted Cruz. Tallarico raises a lot of money. But the scenario that we're in right now is one where with Iran, he actually just can't wriggle his way out. Like, period. It is one where it is genuine checkmate. It's a disaster. As you and I are recording right now, our friend Rory, I mean, Brent crude oil is at$105 a barrel right now, today. That means diesel is over$6 a gallon, which is the highest price on record. Gasoline price, let me just check, retail gas, actual price, it's$4.27 national.

11:40There's not even a lot of bombs that are flying around. There's not even active war. Average price in California,$5.89. There'll be a$6 probably in the next week. I mean, this is crushing. And it's been six months of this, and everybody knows they've got nothing. They have zero solution to this entire thing. That's, I think, you know, there's something really profound about that. You know, obvious historical lesson of just all these people have been a big French Revolution kick, reading a lot about Napoleon. It's just kind of amazing. You know, it's just like roll the dice, you win, you roll the dice, you win, you roll it in.

12:13You're like, God, this man can't be stopped. And then you roll into Moscow and you're like, oh, actually, he can't be stopped. It turns out. Yeah, it turns out you can. It's the same thing here. It really is. It's like the most ever-present lesson in all of history. It makes sense in a way, sort of poetically, that Trump would be the author of his own destruction, that no one else could really do it. He had to author his own destruction. Just like Hitler, just like Napoleon. That's exactly what has happened here. And I would say it is the Iran war is the biggest factor. I don't think we should underestimate, though, how much people hated the tariffs.

12:44Remember when we were – people hated the tariffs. And especially when you look at how many of these Senate races are in the Midwest, where they're getting hurt both by the tariffs and by the Iran war. And suddenly Kansas is in place. Suddenly Nebraska is in place. Suddenly Iowa is like lean D at this point. Obviously, Michigan is going to be a key state as well. Ohio is a key state as well. When you look at those states and how important not only the Iran war, but the tariffs have been to their entire economic base. I think you put the two of those together. And that is also really when people started to have a negative view of Trump and his handling of the economy.

13:22Because previously, that had been his biggest strength, is people, oh, he's a businessman. He knows what to do. It's going to be great. It was when he did Liberation Day and the whole thing was insane and it didn't make any sense and it didn't work and it just increased costs and created all of this chaos that people really had that foundational view of Trump shaken. And then it's been just a steady slide since then, with obviously the Iran war and the attendant price increases there being a complete and utter disaster. There were a couple of other interesting moments at this GOP convention. First of all, let's put DZERO up on the screen.

13:58Just to give you a sense of the vibes, there were a lot of empty seats. I think this was towards the beginning, but you've got, there were videos from right in the midst of things. Most of those bottom seats were filled in, but you had a lot of empty space there. There's a lot of reporting on the scene that the vibes are pretty bad. You in advance had a lot of reporting about the number of Republican politicians that were like, I'm good. I'm busy campaigning at home. Good luck. So that's why you had last night at the convention, it was like Scott Bessent speaking and whatever Trump administration.

14:30I think Donald Jr. has a speaking slot as well. Trump is headlining both nights. Trump this morning claims, quote, the overall numbers beat the NFL. There is no universe where the RNC—so let's split screen. Sam Darnold entry, Drake May choking like an idiot, split screen with Donald Trump and his 11 p.m. primetime speech. I'm just waiting for the numbers to come out. I think the over-under, if you will, is around 40 million viewers who probably watched the game. And I would be willing to bet if you stopped a guy on the street and said, did Donald Trump speak last night? He'd be like, what are you talking about?

15:11You know, he'd be like, what? This is Jacob Goldstein from What's Your Problem? Running a business is hard enough. Don't make it harder with a dozen apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. That's software overload. Odoo is the all-in-one platform that replaces them all. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, HR Fully integrated, easy to use And built to grow with your business Thousands have already made the switch Why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo.com That's odoo.com Did you know every 36 minutes A child in the U.S. is diagnosed with cancer?

15:55Which means some of the bravest warriors you'll ever meet Aren't professional athletes or superheroes They're the kids in this fight That's why I'm proud to support Hyundai Hope on Wheels. For the past 28 years, with support from Hyundai, their dealers, and every new Hyundai sold, Hope on Wheels has contributed over$300 million to childhood cancer research, helping save more than 40 ,000 kids. But we're not done yet. Let's bring every warrior home. Join our fight at HyundaiWarriors.com. I have been with Rasmussen University since 2013, all virtual. All of my professors throughout the entire journey have been nothing but supportive of making me reach my dreams.

16:32Rasmussen professors, they want to see you grow so that you can be what you went to school to be. I'm so thankful for Rasmussen University for being able to make it so easy and seamless. Rasmussen University. Find your seat and start now at rasmussen.edu. We also let's put is this a V.O. the D3B? No, it's Assad. So this bizarre in the whole Hassan Piker discourse, the Republicans decided to include in their montage of like Democrats are bad and evil. Some images of Hassan Piker, including one that's this like thirst trap of him in his underwear that he posted on Instagram at some point. Let's take a look at that.

17:15It has moved away from Democrats in its own party. I am not going to be in the same party with a Sunpike. I can tell you that right now. The funniest part of that is how they, like, blur the underwear. Yes, right. I don't know. I would love to have a word with the person who put that montage together and know the psychology that went in. I have some suspicions, though, and I think most people do. I have some ideas around how that one got in there. It has to do with, I think, didn't Grindr crash whenever it was in Dallas? Grindr crash, again, yeah, as usual during major Republican events. All right.

17:48We'll effort Benny Johnson to give us the lowdown on the psychology there. So let's get to, what is it? Well, we've got Fetterman. John Fetterman decided that he would also make a virtual appearance because we all know he's too lazy to actually travel to Texas. So he sent in a video on behalf of his bestie, the Republican Senator Dave McCormick from Pennsylvania. This is D3. Let's take a listen to that. A big room of Republicans in Dallas. Yes, I'm Senator John Fetterman, Pennsylvania. Yes, I'm a Democrat. Why am I here talking to you today? Because, well, I'm a common sense Democrat. I'm always going to stand with America.

18:29I'm always going to reject the extremes in socialism and that anti-American way of life. Dave McCormick is the kind of senator that gets the job done, and he's going to fight for Pennsylvania. I'm proud to count him as my friend. Right back over my shoulder, that's the iconic US steel mill. And that's exactly the kind of thing that will work together and will work with President Trump to fight and defend the steel way of life right here in the steel valley. I have this opportunity to introduce this great American, a great senator, and yes, he's in a different party, but I'm proud to count him as my great friend.

19:12So for everybody in Dallas, I'm here to introduce Dave McCormick. So there you go. John Fetterman, really inspiring stuff there for the Republican convention. He put a statement out this morning. He said, in no way am I switching parties. In no way. You know, I'm proud to be the 51st. I would be proud to say be the 51st senator. We are in different parties. We are both on Team PA. We have delivered hundreds of millions of dollars back to Pennsylvania. The steel way of life. I'm a lifelong Democrat who votes overwhelmingly with my party, and should the Senate flip in November, I will still be the 51st vote that I ran on.

19:47So he claims I will not be switching parties whatsoever. I actually – I really don't think he would switch parties. I think there is nothing he would love more than being the Joe Manchin, you know, up or down. Every media organization in the world has to hang on to his every word. Schumer has to, you know, take him out to lobster dinners. and every lobbyist in town has to shower him with cash. I mean, this is his dream. But I think for Democrats, I mean, he will also delight in any time there is a close vote where he's the swing vote. Oh, he'll vote, no. He will vote with the Republicans every time that it actually matters.

20:22So it does change the calculus in terms of how many seats Democrats actually have to win to have a functioning majority because you definitely can't rely on this guy that much is for sure. Let's go ahead and put D5 up on the screen, the significant polling in terms of where we are politically. This was pretty noteworthy. You know, one of the things that really was a tell that Trump was likely to win re-election in 2024 was that Republican identification for the first time was outpacing Democratic identification. You had more people who were saying they're Republicans than Democrats. That historically has not been the case.

21:00Now things have reversed and not only have they reversed, but they have reversed to the point that now you have Democrats with a sizable lead over Republicans, a six point lead over Republicans in terms of party identification. So things have really, really switched around there. And then we also just again in the sign of the Times, let's put this D6 up on the screens, the latest poll out of Texas, which is where, of course, this convention is being held. This has Tallarico up on Paxton by five points, 48-43, very close to a majority there, very close to hitting that 50 percent benchmark for Tallarico as well.

21:40This is not obviously the only poll that shows this. There's, you know, basically every poll that comes out has Tallarico narrowly leading Paxton. There have been very few that have Paxton up at all in the state. Greg Abbott also seems to be under significant pressure. And I think to Sagar's point, I mean, this would not be a possibility. Even with Paxton being a scandal plague and all the problems with him, et cetera, this would not be in play. It would not be, you know, with Tallarico, I think at this point you have to say, has the edge in the race if not for the Iran war. Right. So there's 7 % undecided.

22:16So it's not like Paxton can't win if he wins all those people. But we also just have never seen a modern campaign where you do win 100 percent of undecided, which makes it literally a game of within 0.5 or 0.6 percent. Trump also literally said, you know, I'm going to campaign with Ken Paxton. Also, Ken Paxton took the stage yesterday, didn't exactly like the whole thing on fire. Trump did his whole shtick again of like, exactly. He doesn't like how he looks, how he talks, how he dresses. You may not like anything about him, but he votes the right way. You're like, okay, I mean, not a particularly great endorsement.

22:52He's got a money disadvantage. Remember, he needs the MAGA super PACs to come in and bail his ass out on campaign. That's a big problem because you don't have major control over how the ads on all of that are being cut. And look, Texas, like I said, it's a little bit different because genuinely there are people in Texas right now, one of the few places in America who are printing generational wealth off of the situation in Iran. Like if you work in the port of Houston, you are having a bonanza. If you are in the West Texas oil fields or any of these guys, you are actually at the prime of your career.

23:26But tens of millions of people, it's no longer the state like it was when I grew up. It has a much more dynamic economy. It's not all oil and gas. It has technology. It has normal everyday type jobs. Those people are all still suffering. Let me see what the gas price is in Texas. It's still$383 a gallon, not exactly cheap, especially down there. So you put that together and high inflation, high cost of living, even in a state which predominantly was like a banner for a place to move to escape kind of the problems of some of the California, New York or any of those types of places. There's just enough there along with Democratic enthusiasm for Tallarico to come and to really be able to like seize on this.

24:08And I've been watching him. You know, I'll give the guy credit. Tallarico, he went on Fox News yesterday. He has no compunction walking in to what he knew would be an adversarial interview. And he said, yeah, I said some stupid stuff about six genders. And the reason why they want to talk about that is because diesel is$6 a gallon. I mean, not my cup of tea. It's a pretty good line. It's a decent line. It's decent enough, I think, exactly. It's decent enough, from what I can see, to be able to capture exactly the type of person, let's say the white 48 year old mom who traditionally votes Romney has never particularly liked Trump you know decides to go ahead and vote for it or sat out the election is just sitting there and is like I just can't stand Trump so pissed off about this pissed off about grocery prices and you know this Tallarico stuff I don't love it you know we talk about it at church but he says something like that he goes she's like okay maybe you know and you could just see that repeat across the spectrum.