9/14/26: Houthis Take New Strait, Lebron James Gambling Ads, Midterms

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1:50But enough with that. Let's get to the show. Turning now to the Houthis and the shocking developments in the Middle East. Let's go ahead and start with some of the video that's come out of Yemen, where you can see Houthi forces that are seizing U.S. military assets that were sold or given to Saudi Arabia. Here you see similar, you know, I mean, a lot of these guys walking around in sandals, the AK-47s, hanging out on the beach, marching down the street. All of this would all be funny if it were not dramatically funded by the United States, the Saudi military. A total and complete collapse that has been accompanied by a huge strategic disaster for Saudi Arabia and for the U.S., which is total seizure and control now of the Bab al-Mandeb straight.

2:39Great. Let's put C2 up there on the screen. It has now been completely confirmed. Red Sea nations watch as Houthi sees the entire Bab al-Mundib Strait. It is an economic bottleneck now for Egypt, security risks for Sudan, for Somalia, and leverage for Eritrea, for Djibouti. You have a lot of African nations where this has dramatically changed the maritime bottleneck, effectively giving them veto power over whatever they want. This comes on the heels of a genuine shocking situation for Saudi Arabia, because it's not the fact that their forces, back forces, collapse in Yemen. It's that this is combined now with the damage to the east-west pipeline.

3:20Let's go ahead and put C4, please, on the screen just to show you all. Initial estimates coming out, 4 % of the entire global oil supply is now taken off of this Saudi pipeline. This already happened after Saudi Arabia admitted it had exported less oil than at any time since 1990, and they say they will run out of oil stocks for exports if it doesn't restart major pipeline within days. The current estimate that is coming out of Saudi Arabia is apparently weeks for this pipeline, which means that they will have to dial down the amount they pump out of the ground, which is very, very difficult to start back up.

4:01Obviously, a lot going on, but you have initial damage previously to Aramco, to the pipeline. I mean, this is a genuine choke point, which is happening. And all of it is reflected in the current price of oil as we are currently recording. It's running$109 a barrel at Brent crude. Let's see where we at in terms of our national average,$4.31 a gallon. So up 30 cents already just in the last like two weeks or so. And diesel, right? Oh my God. Current average of diesel,$6.23 a gallon. It was$6 last week. It'll be seven. It'll be seven pretty soon. Yeah. Wow. That is extraordinarily dire. And it does feel like, you know, there's that, who is it that has the famous quote, the market will remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

4:46I think it's an apocryphal one. Anyway, you know, and it has felt a bit like that because we've been watching the, even with more oil and gas getting out of the Strait of Hormuz, it's still not what it was. So, of course, for a long time, we've been talking to Rory, like, what is going on here? How come the market is not reacting more to the state of affairs? And there were all sorts of cushions that were in place. You had China, which dramatically reduced their buying. We had our strategic petroleum reserve that we were drawing. They were able to use this east-west pipeline to get more barrels out of the region via the Bob-Belmondab Strait as well.

5:20And now it feels like all of those previous pieces, which cushioned the blow, are falling away. And Trump's ability to market manipulate just through jawboning has also seemingly fallen away. I mean, he is openly admitting now gas prices are not coming down before the midterms. And who knows when they will come down. He leaves that part out. He claims that as soon as the midterms are over, then things are going to go back and the war is going to be over. There's no explanation of how or why that would happen exactly. But in any case, now you have obviously the seizure and the successful offensive by what we call in the West the Houthis.

5:56You have east-west pipelines struck, by the way, not by the Houthis. It appears by Iraqi militias aligned with Iran. You have China reentering at a higher rate. Obviously, our strategic petroleum reserve has already been drawn down. So the situation is looking fairly dire, which is why you see those gas prices, those per barrel oil prices ticking up and up and up. And by the way, the overall stock market is down related more likely to the AI conversation we were having previously. It's funny you bring that up. I was about to say that. I go, this could be, I mean, I know lots of this could be it.

6:32But let's say you have unilateral tech slowdown, which is propping up the entire U.S. economy. People start to wake up. I mean, look at my genuine reaction. to diesel going$6.23 a gallon this morning. It was six last week. And that was a record high. That was the all-time high. I'm like,$6.23 a gallon? Let's combine that with San Diego. Put C5 on the screen here. We're reaching things we didn't even know was possible. A California gas station has now hit$9.99 a gallon with San Diego customers who are now giving themselves solace that it literally cannot get worse other than$9.99 because of the way, apparently, that the sign is.

7:15Yeah, the signs only have three digits, so you can't go to$10. You actually just can't go to$10. So that appears to be the limit of what they're allowed to charge you for now. I'm sure a sign guy will fix that next week before the diesel price is going to resolve. That's where we're at. So you got crushing consumer sentiment. There was inflation reading that came out, I think, on Friday. The University of Michigan survey was disastrous. You've got$4.31 a gallon gasoline. I don't even know what it is in California. Is it six bucks yet? Yes,$6 exactly this morning,$6 a gallon right now in California,$6.23 diesel national average.

7:56I mean, that combined with a genuine downturn in the U.S. stock market. Let's say we had a correction of 10 % or something. We're living in a whole universe, I think, at that point. That would actually lead to, I mean, I can't even imagine, like you would have Federal Reserve behavior. Unemployment could skyrocket. I mean, even right now, the only thing really propping up our economy and hiring is healthcare spending. And as you and I both know, with recession, when income goes down, people unfortunately don't seek out healthcare. So there's all kinds of downstream effects that could happen right now, directly as a result now of this Bab al-Mandev situation and the general strategic picture in Iran, which is this is part of their playbook.

8:39This is what they wanted. They want the dial continuing to turn up. Every day that we get closer to the midterm election, they want to see that diesel price go higher. Yeah, that's exactly right. And Trump was hoping that he could sort of put this conflict on the back burner and people would become comfortable with maybe roughly$4 a gallon gas, but it wouldn't go that much higher. And then guess what? when you're in a war, your opponent also gets a say. And so that's part of what's going on here. We've been long saying that it doesn't make any sense that Iran would just accept that state of affairs and do nothing in response.

9:10Now, the Houthis are their own actors. They are in this, you know, war with the previous government of Yemen, backed by Saudi Arabia. So they have their own domestic priorities here in terms of trying to claim all of the territory in Yemen. But it's not crazy to imagine either that there is some coordination here with Iran because we know they are closely aligned. Iran has helped them with technical and military assistance in the past because there is a question of, OK, well, why now? Why did they decide to go on the march now? What was it that happened here? The other wild thing is that reportedly a bunch of their military adversaries, a lot of them were what they're calling like ghost soldiers who were being paid but weren't doing anything because they didn't really believe in the cause.

9:53I was listening. Afghanistan 2.0. Totally. I was listening to Professor Morandi this morning on with Glenn Deason, and he was talking about how, you know, part of the victory for Ansar Allah or the Houthis is that they were very assertive in terms of standing with Palestine. And that really raised their esteem with their own population and throughout the region. So, you know, if you have people who are actually committed to you who are willing to fight and aren't just collecting a paycheck as a ghost soldier, that is going to give you a tremendous advantage on the battlefield. I do think that is part of what's going on here.

10:27You know, another part of what's going on, put C7 up on the screen, some reporting from the Wall Street Journal, is Iran is now working overtime producing ballistic missiles again. Intelligence findings say Tehran is assembling stockpiled components into weapons in underground facilities. They say despite heavy attacks on their missile sites and industrial facilities during the initial phase of the war, Iran has been busy assembling liquid propellant missiles, which have to be fueled just before launch, as well as solid propellant missiles, which can be stored ready to fire, according to officials, points to activity at several underground sites.

11:00They're also attempting to build new underground assembly points to avoid getting struck again. So they are still able to build these ballistic missiles. They have restarted production. Meanwhile, of course, we've got all kinds of problems on our side with regard to munitions and with regard to missile interceptors in particular, which certainly were exacerbated by this last round of fire where we could all watch the videos of how many of our interceptors were being shot in order to be able to deter the Iranian attack. Admiral Bradley Cooper, however, was asked whether he is concerned about munition stockpiles.

11:35And he had this to say, this is C6. You have testified about this, a shortage of munitions, especially to defend against Iranian missile and drone attacks. That's become a big issue in this war. How concerned are you about that right now? I'm not concerned at all. We're well armed and ready for any contingency. So even though there are estimates that the U.S. has already fired 45 percent of its Patriot missiles and used more than half of its THAAD missiles, you're not worried about any future threats? I'm not. Wow. Super comforting. Yeah. You believe him? I actually do. You know why? Because he's not the president.

12:11His job is just to worry about CENTCOM. So he definitely has all the munitions he need. The question is, is does the PACOM guy, the Indo-PACOM commander or Southcom or any of these other people, they're like, whoa, Mr. CENTCOM, of course you have everything because you stole all of our stuff. So you should go. And there's an interesting piece that ran in the New York Times over the weekend. And it was basically about how the vice president has been calling all of these subcommanders, bypassing Pete Hegseth, and just being like, give it to me straight. what's really happening. And of course, this idiot Cooper, I mean, he's pro-Israel moron.

12:46I've heard all kinds of stories about him, but the Paycom people and others, they're ones who are like, they're like, sir, I'll shoot it to you straight. This is a real problem. This is bad. Well, the other thing to keep in mind here is that Hegseth and Trump have both culled their staff and Hegseth culled the military based on people who will be loyal. I mean, that's really been the criteria for remaining in your post. And so there's no way this guy could go on television and tell the truth if he did have concerns, because then he'd be out of a job. So it doesn't exactly foster unvarnished truth telling when you have enforced this sort of code of silence and demands for loyalty up to and including required that you lie to serve Trump or to serve Hegseth's wishes.

13:34Another thing, we didn't have the time for the element, but I just saw it, is that the Chinese imports are beginning to rebound. Yes. Which you could say a couple of things. I mean, the conflict's been going on for more than six months. Yeah. So maybe their stockpiles are low and they just need to buy more oil. Yeah. The other thing is, I'm Xi Jinping. I've got all these annoyances with Donald Trump. You burn a few billion buying some oil, get those gas prices cranking here in the US, Make sure that you just twist the screws a little bit in your favor. Wouldn't be the worst dollar that you ever spent if you're China.

14:08And on top of that, you're providing this new technology to the Iranians. Let's put that last piece on the screen, C7. Up here, Iran is producing ballistic missiles again. Intelligence findings say Tehran is now assembling stockpiled components into weapons in underground facilities. facilities. Combine that with a major story that came out over the weekend, which was the Chinese providing targeting information specifically on that Jordanian base to Iran. And then Trump being asked about it. And he basically had to brush it off being like, yeah, I'm sure they have intelligence. We have intelligence, too.

14:41I mean, this is impotence. You can't do anything about it. First of all, he's obviously correct. But second, it's like, what are you going to do? Are you going to sanction them? It's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, you can't. It's like, look at our economy. In fact, they're not them, but together, they're all in a much better strategic position to outlast and to push against the United States. Their population is willing to suffer. And we shouldn't diminish that. Iranian people are suffering right now. They've got gas lines. They've got electricity problems. They've got economies, especially nationalized, complete turmoil.

15:12But they're literally under attack and their leader was killed. Whereas all we want is$2.82 a gallon gasoline. We don't care about what's going on. over there. And we definitely want to be paying for what this is on top of the price with this. So I think considering our first coverage about AI, already this morning, I mean, it's still very, very early. But looking, I mean, yeah, I mean, the market is dropping like a rock right now. Who knows exactly where it could be? We could end up like maybe 1 % or 2 % down on the entire S &P 500. On the actual tech stocks, let's see, QQQ is already down by about 1.7%.

15:47It's not horrible. But we'll continue to see where those things continue to be. But if you combine that with very, very high physical inputs of gasoline and diesel, that is obviously just, you know, it doesn't need a genius to say depression very easily. Yeah. I would say the stock market dropping after all of these guys come out and, you know, sound the alarm and say they're going to unilaterally slow down fits very uncomfortably with the idea that this is all hype to lose their stock and potentially increase their their IPOs. But yeah, I mean, the last thing I'll say on this is the Iranians have long had their eyes on the midterm because they understand that the war here is unpopular.

16:24They understand that the American consumer is very, very sensitive to gas prices, that the ripple effects of diesel throughout the economy are going to be quite grave. So I would certainly expect that they continue to increase the pressure here between now and November to try to further imperil the political horizon for Trump, because that's something that they've, you know, basically outright claimed as part of their war strategy. Right. I mean, why wouldn't you? And especially with the screws that are all tightening right now. All right, let's get to gambling. Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford.

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19:25gambling advertising from the traditional sports books now to the so-called prediction markets. And just to take a step back and remind us, the Trump administration has effectively legalized gambling in all 50 states, making it available to Texas and California, two of the states with the largest population. So for the first time in American history, this was the first NFL Sunday where you could gamble in all 50 states. The numbers are in. The numbers are in, and they're absolutely shocking to nobody if you don't see the rise of this addiction. Let's go and put D3. up here on the screen. A record of some$14.1 billion was bet on prediction markets just in the last week.

20:05Sports that were particularly favorable for these prediction markets included not only the U.S. Open tennis match, but also, as they say, the start of the NFL regular season. So that puts you at tens of billions of dollars in a single week that were gambled on these platforms, you might then wonder what exactly are all of these bets going towards. And you would be absolutely shocked to learn that a huge portion of these bets are going to traditional combos, otherwise known as a parlay bet, of which you might as well just be handing your money over to the sportsbooks. This comes on the heels of an advertising push where, you know, this is Crystal Wears, we have no shame in our society anymore.

20:48You got LeBron James, who the current whatever net worth estimator has him around a bit, whether it's 1.1 billion or 800 million, it doesn't make a difference. He never has to work a day in his life. Eli Manning. I mean, you know, the Manning brothers and all that, they've got enough Bud Light money in the can that they could literally do nothing. They do this for a choice. They do it for the paycheck. You got Spike Lee of all people here. Yeah. The guy who made Malcolm X is out here shilling for poly market. So that's the ad I'm about to show you. Here's LeBron James appearing. By the way, followed this up with his Polymarket picks for the NFL season.

21:24Here was his ad for Polymarket.

21:32Coming in hot.

21:38It's live training. You got to stay on your toes. Morning, Eli. What up, LeBron? Always be planning for Eli Manning. Sister, hit that button. And now we play. All right. Beautiful day to be great, y 'all. Love it. Bro. Captain. Let's get to it. Hear ye, hear ye. Ha ha. What up, King? What up, baby? Let's get to it. Man, Craig from The Office. How could you, Craig? How could you? So you got, I mean, just look at that. All these people, paychecks that are out there. And again, if you, it's so funny, they call themselves prediction markets. You can literally go on their website and live bet the spread per quarter.

22:16So like literally about who's going to be up per quarter, all the future prop out. It is completely indistinguishable from any of the sports books. In fact, I downloaded the Polymarket app at one point on Saturday or sorry, on Thursday, whenever the Rams and the 49ers were playing. There were 180 ,000 people in the live chat who were live chatting about the trades that they were making. And they've even gamified it so that there's a little tag next to your name about how much money you have on the game and in which way. And they're all shit-talking each other and then encouraging each other to put even more on Parlay.

22:57I've never seen anything like this in my life. Like this collaborative, it's literally like a streaming thing where everybody's just encouraging them to pour even more money. Now, we put the$14 billion number up there. We showed you how LeBron and these others are doing this. But there are all these other competitors. And so my new favorite is called Novig, which decided that gambling, shilling for the sin of gambling was not enough. Let's combine it with softcore pornography of Sidney Sweeney. So here, take a listen. Think you know sports? Prove it. Novig is just sports. So they wanted a show.

23:37Just sports. So yeah, that's America now. It was just Sydney Sweeney being naked and shilling for just sports. I believe she made some quote where she was like, oh, it's better because it's just sports. You can't bet on what color my underwear is. I'm like, well, why don't we just advocate for something so we don't have markets for that literally at all? How about that? Yeah, and so that's up in Times Square. Nobody blinks an eye over any of this stuff. All these celebrities. You got Timothee Chalamet. All of these athletes. The U.S. Open, which you're a huge fan of. They partner directly with Kalshi.