9/23/26: Trump Threatens To Annihilate Iran, Diesel Export Ban, Trump Praises Zohran, Newsom Sells Out Hollywood

26:01And right now I'm taking you through my six part money reboot series. This is your chance to hit reset, break the debt cycle, get honest about where your money's going, build a savings plan that actually sticks and start making financial choices that support the life you want, not just the bills you have. Because wealth building is not about being perfect. It's about having a plan, knowing your numbers, and making your next move with confidence with a community that cares like we do on Brown Ambition. Each episode gives you practical steps, real talk, and the motivation to stop putting your financial goals on hold.

26:36So if you've been saying, I'll get serious about money next month, this is your sign. Start now. Listen to Brown Ambition. That's Brown Ambition. And begin your money reboot today. Listen to Brown Ambition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

26:54Emily Jashinsky:President Trump is supporting a ban on exporting diesel. We can put this first headline up on the screen. This is from Axios. It's reporting Trump backs ban on diesel exports. President Trump said Tuesday that he has called for ban on U.S. diesel exports, while Treasury Secretary Scott Besson confirmed the administration is examining whether a full or partial ban is feasible. So Trump got a question on this on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly just yesterday. Let's take a listen here to how he responded. This is B2. President Senator Sullivan today has called for a ban on diesel exports, a temporary ban.

27:28For what? A ban on diesel exports. Chuck Grassley called for the same thing. Mike Rogers called for the same thing. Is that something you are considering? Well, I'd call for that too. I've said let's not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel. that could have a little bit of an effect on regular automobile gasoline, because when you do that, you know, it's sort of a flow, it's a balance. But no, I've called for it within my people I've been talking about.

27:52Emily Jashinsky:Well, as you heard in the question there, this does have the support of Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. Also, John Thune, who's from South Dakota, Senate Majority Leader, said that he would be, quote, unquote, open to it. other Republicans in places like Iowa, Ashley Hinson included, have agreed with Grassley on this. Meanwhile, let's also take a listen here to an Iowa farmer talking to MS Now about diesel prices. These high diesel fuel prices couldn't have come at a worse time. Hardly any farmers have fuel on hand for this fall. The last time I bought diesel fuel was in 2025, a year ago, for the crop, and that was$2.29.

28:33I hope this is not the long-term new level of diesel fuel prices. Iowa is, quote, tricky for Republicans this cycle, and GOP candidates, they know it. Late last week, J.D. Vance made a visit to the state and got a high-profile snub. The GOP Senate candidate, Ashley Hinson, skipping his event. Today, Hinson trying to further distance herself from Trump calling for an end to the Iran war, despite previously voting to let Trump continue the war six times.

29:03Emily Jashinsky:So, Ryan, Axios is reporting that Trump does technically have emergency powers that would allow him to do this. Congress could do it as well. But there's an enormous amount of potential economic implications to break down here. And I know you've been following this pretty closely because it's suddenly extremely interesting. I mean, it's generally interesting, but suddenly right now, because you have so many people taking a serious look at it. It's very interesting. What, from your estimation, would the immediate effect of this be? Yeah, you and I were doing our homework on this to try to figure out what would actually happen if they did this.

29:33And what Trump is alluding to in his comment there is a very real problem. And what he said there was that you actually might have gas prices go up. And there's a good reason for that. And so right now, if you're Ashley Hinson, And it's not actually great for you if he does an export ban because the Midwest has its own refineries as is operating at effectively maximum capacity. And the Midwest serves the Midwest. The Midwest refineries do not export diesel. So an export. So it's not increasing supply there. The refineries that do export diesel are down in the Gulf. And so they make a lot more diesel there than they can use in Texas and Louisiana and Alabama and Mississippi.

30:19They export it basically to Europe and Latin America. And so the pipelines that run from the Gulf up to the Midwest are basically full already. So it isn't as if you refine more that you could then ship it up to the or that you're not you didn't refine more, but you have more because you can't sell it. You're not gonna be able to ship it to the Midwest. You could potentially put it on boats if you give a Jones Act waiver. Jones Act says you have to you can only ship along the coast with American ships and American crew. So you do a waiver for that. Let foreign ships pick up the diesel and take it up to, say, New England.

30:57OK, maybe you could do that. But New England gets most of its diesel imported. So all you're doing is trying to fill the gap that you've now killed, because if you are not exporting the countries that are exporting to New England and to the East Coast, they're going to stop exporting. Obviously, they're going to send it to Latin America and elsewhere where the price is now going way up. So you're not going to have a change in the Midwest. You'd have a kind of a crash in prices immediately in, say, Texas and Louisiana. but what that does is the refiners are then going to make less diesel. Quite simple, supply and demand, less demand.

31:38Now, the problem is when you take a barrel of oil and you refine it, we're all learning way more than we want to know about this stupid industry. So you have a barrel of oil. When you refine it, you get gasoline. I don't know.

31:49Emily Jashinsky:I watched Landman, so I'm already pretty - There you go. You're up to speed. So you get gasoline, you get diesel, and then you get all these other refined petroleum products along with it. And so if you want to reduce the amount of diesel you make, you have to refine fewer barrels. You can't just target diesel and say, we want less diesel because now we can't export it. So you're going to get less diesel, fewer refined products across the board, and less gasoline. What's less gasoline mean? Higher gasoline prices. So in order to bring down diesel from where it is by whatever dimes that he can bring it down, you're going to push gas prices up.

32:28Now, if you don't do this, he's going to look like he's not doing something that he could be doing to help the American people. So he's really in a box here because if he does it, he will be screwing an enormous number of people. God only knows what kind of global crisis, you know, he's going to, Brett Erickson in a text to me said, called it Russian roulette. Like it's going to be bad, but it might actually like blow your head off. Like you, at some point there's going to be a bullet in the chamber and this entire thing unravels. Uh, and he said that across the board, uh, oil energy people are just praying that like he doesn't actually go through with this because of what a calamity it would be.

33:08Now, maybe it pushes diesel down in Texas, but then also pushes gas prices up in Texas. Uh, so I don't know what, What, as a Trumpologist, like, does he go through with this? Because he seemed to know from that clip that it would push gas prices up. Like, so he's been briefed. All his, oh, and the energy secretary and the ag secretary have assured everybody that this will not happen. So it's going to make them look like total losers. So how do you think this goes?

33:37Emily Jashinsky:And not only that, but I was just going to say, actually, Doug Burgum agrees with basically everything you just outlined. Doug Burgum said last week that this would be a good option if it actually would lower prices. And his quote is, but that's not the case. So he just made the Ryan Grimm argument, which it seems, I mean, this gets the politics of why Chuck Grassley and Ashley Hinson would float this. Is it to keep Iowa Republicans above water and kind of sacrifice Trump? The MS Now clip that we watched mentioned Hinton not wanting to campaign with Vance when he was in Iowa. So are they trying to make it look like they have an innovative idea that could help with this?

34:15Emily Jashinsky:And they're doing something. They're proactive. And then it helps them because people aren't really voting for Trump on the ballot. He's literally not on the ballot, even though he's told Republicans to pretend like he is on the ballot. And that way they're able to kind of scrape by, look like they had an idea. It's not their fault if the White House doesn't do it. So is this all actually even a political maneuver, the fact that they're talking about it, a way to give ag state Republicans a lifeline and say, this is what we want to do. This is what we think we should do. And it allows them to have a talking point and allows them to have something they say could work.

34:50Emily Jashinsky:And they're pushing for it. They're pushing for it, but they can't force the White House's hand. But I don't think Trump would actually do it, Ryan. The only thing that scares me is what you mentioned about the Jones Act, because when you combine the old school Republican obsession with waiving the Jones Act with Trump, that is a powerful force. Because on the one hand, you get all of the former Heritage Foundation staffers in the Trump administration now just itching, jonesing to do this Jones Act waiver. That's the thing that makes it most likely is they get an opportunity to waive the Jones Act.

35:25Because it would make shipping a little bit cheaper for them, right?

35:29Emily Jashinsky:Yeah. Yeah. And where is it that they have a waiver for the Jones Act right now? Puerto Rico. Yeah, Puerto Rico. Well, they're trumpeting how it proves their point about the Jones Act. They've been doing that for like the last six months. So anyway, that was a little bit of a joke. But in all seriousness, if you get an opportunity to waive the Jones Act, there are a whole lot of people that will be eager to latch onto the policy. I don't think that it's going to happen in this case, because when you have even the interior secretary saying it's not going to lower prices, that's what Trump is hearing behind closed doors, too.

35:59Emily Jashinsky:You know it is. And so why would you do that? Yeah. In the last two days, we had polls showing Iowa Senator Ashley Hinson down substantially to Torek in Iowa. So she came out against the war. You had a poll finding Mike Rogers down by seven to Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. And so you had him now coming out against the war and you now have a poll in Texas. We can put up before this one really turning a lot of heads because I don't think so. James, if you're just listening to this on podcast, James Tallarico, 50, Ken Paxton, 44. This is a Marist poll. And so I don't think that Beto. During his entire run ever really hit 50 percent in a poll.

36:48No. In fact, it wasn't even close. Yeah. And so that's always a key thing that people watch for. It's one thing if you're showing leads of like 44 to 41, 45 to 42, you're up 46, 43. like it gets Democrats excited because they're winning and technically you're supposed to win. You know, we just have more than the other guy. But if you get less than 50 percent in those polls, the big concern is that as the race gets closer to the finish line, all of those undecided people, they're all just coming home to what they always do, which is vote Republican. And so the poll number that you see Democrats getting in Texas, that number ends up becoming their final number.

37:32And for Republicans, they get everybody else. And so Ted Cruz kind of jumped over Beto O 'Rourke and ends up beating him. To have Tallarico hitting that 50 percent threshold is is pretty huge. What are you hearing from Republicans? Because we don't have much joy in this world. At least we can get a little little schadenfreude out of their reactions to like just this absolute tsunami of polls from everywhere from Kansas to Iowa, Michigan, Texas to Florida, showing them there was a Texas internal was a house house race or state Senate race where Trump won by 17 and Hillary goes up by like 11. Just disastrous stuff across the board.

38:16So what what are you hearing from Republicans out there?

38:19Emily Jashinsky:Well, I think people are starting to come to terms with the fact that there isn't going to be some type of like DSA saving grace, meaning you're not going to prevent the 2018 blue tsunami, as Harrington called it at the time, appropriately, just because there are DSA candidates nominated that you can tie Abdu 'l-Sayed to or James Tallarico to. I think that's what Republicans are coming to terms with now. And you can see it by the fact that actually just to tie this all together, you have people like Ashley Hinson floating this policy maneuver that I don't think anybody really truly believes would have or would provide much relief for people over the course of the next couple of months before Election Day.

39:00Emily Jashinsky:We're at 41 days until election day. So that alone feels like a last ditch kind of desperate talking point. But I'm looking here at the polls that RealClearPolitics indexed going into Cruz versus Beto in 2018. Not a single poll, not a single poll had Beto at 50 percent. One Emerson poll in late October had him at 47 percent. And the Quinnipiac poll at the same time had him at 46%. That is actually in and of itself significantly different. And just we've been hammering it over and over. Beto never, ever led in the RealClearPolitics average. Never once in that race. He ended up coming within about two points, a little over two points of Ted Cruz.

39:46Emily Jashinsky:So the polls in that race underestimated Beto O 'Rourke. That's another important thing to notice. Tallarico, this has been flipped. he has been leading in every single poll that RCP has indexed, every single one of them, since August. And it looks like the gap is getting bigger when you have polls like this heading into October, showing a 50 % number for Tallarico. It is the first poll since a Texas Public Policy Foundation poll in late August that had 50 % for Tallarico. That poll also had 50 % for Paxton, but no other pole has had either of them at 50%. So that is, I agree with you, a very significant benchmark to see.

40:29Emily Jashinsky:And it's very, I think, clear when you compare this race to 2018 Beto O 'Rourke, which is a pretty good comparison because you have a donor-friendly, high-profile opponent to, I guess, one difference is Cruz was an incumbent and Paxton's not an incumbent. But this is just absolutely brutal. Yeah. And we'll finish with some good news for Trump. The Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, which some people thought might be out of commission for months, they have got it pumping some oil. And Saudi Arabia, apparently Aramco is telling some Asian buyers that, you know, they can expect deliveries again very soon and that they're starting to pump again from these major ports that the war continues, though.

41:17And, you know, a pipeline remains. I don't have to tell anybody this a rather vulnerable target. But let's move on to the weirdest and most interesting, most fun bromance in American politics. Trump.

41:31Emily Jashinsky:It's kind of a one way bromance. Yeah. Today's episode is brought to you by Apple ads. Ads on Apple Maps are changing the way local businesses get discovered. Reach customers when it counts, right when they turn I'm looking into I'm going. They're in decision-making mode, actively searching for businesses like yours and deciding where to go. Customers can easily call you, visit, and more from the same place they're viewing your ad. And all of this happens on Apple Maps, a privacy-first environment that respects customers and helps them discover new places. Get started with ads on Apple Maps today And for a limited time, receive 15 % credit back on your monthly ad spend for a year Up to$1 ,000 per month Terms apply Head to ads.apple.com slash maps to get started Try business like never before with ads on Apple Maps

42:35Lisa, we should tell them about our new show. Oh my God, Lexi, we have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions. And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. I'm not going to get anywhere fighting. That is wild. I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business. And I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world.

43:15We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Liar. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I don't really care. What would change if you stopped letting money stress run your life, sis? I'm Mandy Money, host of Brown Ambition, the podcast.

43:53And right now I'm taking you through my six part money reboot series. This is your chance to hit reset, break the debt cycle, get honest about where your money's going, build a savings plan that actually sticks and start making financial choices that support the life you want, not just the bills you have. Because wealth building is not about being perfect. It's about having a plan, knowing your numbers, and making your next move with confidence with a community that cares like we do on Brown Ambition. Each episode gives you practical steps, real talk, and the motivation to stop putting your financial goals on hold.

44:28So if you've been saying, I'll get serious about money next month, this is your sign. Start now. Listen to Brown Ambition. That's Brown Ambition. And begin your money reboot today. Listen to Brown Ambition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. While he was in New York, President Donald Trump went to Gracie Manchin to meet with New York City's mayor. Let's roll a little bit of this. No, I certainly hope he will be a great mayor. You have to understand, I want what's good for New York. I want what's good for the country. So if I had a choice of having him be a bad mayor or horrible mayor, I don't want that.

45:08I want him to be a great mayor, and he's certainly got potential, got great potential. Thank you so much. That's all the time we have. So you hear that Mom Donnie aide trying to end the thing, but Trump's like, no, no, no, we can keep going. We can do this.

45:23Emily Jashinsky:We've got time. Yeah, apparently, put a C2 here. This has Republicans, and some, weirdly, some centrist or center-right Democrats, like Neera Tannen and Sarah Longwell like melting down, but most of it's Republicans melting down. It says, GOP rank and file hoped to turn Mamdani into the midterm boogeyman. Instead, as Mamdani's time to brief the press came, he asked Trump on the spot to join him, and the president agreed, according to a person familiar with the meeting. During the presser, Mamdani called on MS Now, CNN, and Politico, the three outlets Trump banned from the White House last week.

46:02Emily, let's just finally put up C3 here. So there's also a little bit of lip reading that somebody did because this wasn't on Camry. Trump apparently told Mom Donnie, I'll look after you. You look after the New Yorkers and we can both make it work. I want to support you. Help me. Come with me to the White House. See how I work. This is just...

46:24Emily Jashinsky:He's talking to Melania. Yeah, this is too much. Like, I can't, Like, it's embarrassing. Like, what is going on here? I mean, the crash out on this has been something else. Playbook had incredibly funny Republican strategist quotes. So this is, quote, I don't think from Playbook on yesterday, I don't think people really want to see you toasting the Chinese premiere. A Republican close to the White House said, you're hosting this glamorous state dinner time when people are like, are you focused on me? And this was also a strategist saying he's, oh yeah, here's this, the person says, this is Barrett Marson, Arizona-based GOP strategist.

47:05Emily Jashinsky:The in-your-face arguments from Republicans this election cycle is that Democrats want to bring socialism or communism to America. This is the quote I was thinking of. Here's the next line. Trump warmly embracing two of the most outspoken leaders of those ideologies makes it that much harder for the message to resonate with voters. When I read this yesterday, I almost did a spit take. You are in the same breath comparing Xi Jinping and Zoran Mamdani. And you understand what they're saying, which is that Trump has been campaigning against communism and socialism relentlessly. And then he's hanging out with Xi Jinping and an open socialist, Zoran Mamdani.

47:42Emily Jashinsky:But just the equating of both of them as though this is an apples to apples political offense that he would have a state dinner for Xi Jinping and go to Gracie Manchin with Zora Mamdani. Incredible crash out vibes from Republicans on this. Did you see Laura Loomer's tweets? Oh, my God. Laura Loomer. I almost feel bad for her. She can't she can't handle it. Well, she's saying we've been working so hard. I'm paraphrasing her, but she's basically saying we've been working so hard and to see Trump then cozy up to socialist Mamdani. Now, I will say, Ryan, you can tell Trump is freelancing this stuff, that he has absolutely no concerns about the big picture election question at all.

48:21Emily Jashinsky:Because if he did, it's very obvious that when you're trying to tie Republican candidates around the country in red states or swing states to Zora Mamdani in particular and say these Democrats are too radical for voters, than Trump lavishing Mamdani in praise is when he's saying, pretend that I'm on the ballot. Basically, you're voting for me if you're voting for a Republican. And that Republican is running against Mamdani-ism. On paper, it makes absolutely no sense. So you can tell that he's clearly freelancing this and that it's not at all tethered to his political operation. But what did Republican strategists expect from him?

48:58Emily Jashinsky:Seriously. Yeah. And so, yes, exactly. Chairman Xi will be here tomorrow. Chairman Xi, though, is here now. Let's see, though, what he's been able to accomplish. So in 2020, when he first ran for assembly, actually, gig companies put a whole bunch of money into the race to try to stop him from becoming an assembly member. He beat them. In 2024, DoorDash put a million dollars behind Cuomo to try to elect Cuomo. Well, this is a nice, like, you know, how it started, how it's going. Let's put up C4 here. I wish we had the sad music to play here. DoorDash statement, since 2023, more than 200 ,000 Dashers in New York City were underpaid or paid late under the city's delivery worker payrolls.

49:44These errors were unintentional. Who hasn't made 200 ,000 unintentional errors? But that doesn't make them acceptable. Dashers should be paid in full on time every time. We take full responsibility and we're deeply sorry. We've reached a$131.5 million dollar settlement with the New York City Department of Consumer and Worker Protection. Every impacted Dasher will receive the amount they are owed and they'll be contacted directly with payment details. We understand the impact of even one missed or late payment. We've addressed the issue that caused these errors and made changes to prevent them from happening again.

50:26And so when people see that a company like DoorDash is spending a million dollars to back Andrew Cuomo, somebody like Andrew Cuomo, they think, wow, that is an enormous amount of money to spend in an election. But when they see why they're spending it, they get it. They were trying to spend one million dollars to prevent having to pay one hundred and thirty one point five million that they had stolen from New Yorkers. And so when people ask, what do you get if you elect somebody who is not on the payroll of major companies? What do workers get for it? Well, this is one example of what they get for it.

51:04Emily Jashinsky:Well, and I'm sure there'll be a close eye kept on how DoorDash rewards its top executives in the next year or so as well, because the argument is Zoran is going to threaten all these companies to do what's right by workers, follow these laws, and then prices are going to go up for absolutely everyone. But if you're also increasing executive compensation and raising prices at the same time, I'm sure Mayor Mamdani, as you call him Chairman Z, is going to have his eye on that. And Producer Mack, by the way, says it's not a bromance, it's a correction from the control room. It is non-consensual lustfulness.

51:44Our apology.

51:45Emily Jashinsky:It is somewhat unrequited. It is. It's tragic. Truly tragic. Well, you know, but on the other hand, Mom Donnie, this is going to face Janice Lewis George in Washington, D.C. In fact, already is facing Janice Lewis George and coming Democratic Socialist Mayor of Washington, D.C. She's posturing in a way that suggests disinterest or a lack of willingness to take Mom Donnie's tack here in Washington or, well, I'm not in Washington right now. I shouldn't say here in Worcester, but in D.C. And for Mom Donnie, it's not entirely unrequited. We might be assuming internally it's unrequited, but he's also reciprocating in a way that is probably helping New York at this point.

52:28Emily Jashinsky:That's a raging debate, I know, but it seems like the results are clear. And as as D.C. residents, maybe let us put in a plea here with Mom Donnie, start a group chat, you, Trump and Janice. And maybe that'll help, you know, thaw things between Trump and Janice. And he won't like actively, intentionally, deliberately destroy the city for no reason other than just like spite. Political strategist, Ryan Grimm. Let's see. Reporting live. All right. Up next, the Paramount merger is on hold. Today's episode is brought to you by Apple Ads. Ads on Apple Maps are changing the way local businesses get discovered.

53:09Reach customers when it counts, right when they turn I'm looking into I'm going. They're in decision-making mode, actively searching for businesses like yours and deciding where to go. Customers can easily call you, visit, and more from the same place they're viewing your ad. And all of this happens on Apple Maps, a privacy-first environment that respects customers and helps them discover new places Get started with ads on Apple Maps today, and for a limited time, receive 15 % credit back on your monthly ad spend for a year, up to$1 ,000 per month Terms apply Head to ads.apple.com slash maps to get started Try business like never before with ads on Apple Maps

54:21We'll see you next time. Fighting, that is wild. I learned that about you today. Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business, and I've always got something to say. If men were just honest about this, there would be so much more peace in the world. We're going to talk about dating, relationships, beauty, getting older, and a little wiser. We're best friends, but we don't always agree. Because you told us how accommodating you are. Obviously, I would do what I think I could do to fight the fight, but there's only so much fight I can fight. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me.

54:59Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Don't lie to me. Liar. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I don't really care. What would change if you stopped letting money stress run your life, sis? I'm Mandy Money, host of Brown Ambition, the podcast. And right now, I'm taking you through my six-part money reboot series. This is your chance to hit reset, break the debt cycle, get honest about where your money's going, build a savings plan that actually sticks and start making financial choices that support the life you want, not just the bills you have.

55:36Because wealth building is not about being perfect. It's about having a plan, knowing your numbers, and making your next move with confidence with a community that cares like we do on Brown Ambition. Each episode gives you practical steps, real talk, and the motivation to stop putting your financial goals on hold. So if you've been saying, I'll get serious about money next month, this is your sign. Start now. Listen to Brown Ambition. That's Brown Ambition. And begin your money reboot today. Listen to Brown Ambition on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Well, the Paramount-Warner Brothers merger that everybody thought was a done deal is on hold, at least for now.

56:20A judge, we can put this element up on screen. The judge overseeing the antitrust litigation has canceled Thursday's hearing on Paramount's bond request, but scheduled a new one to address outstanding questions about the proposed consent decree. She has not yet approved the settlement. So joining us now is former FTC Commissioner Alvaro Bedoya to walk us through everything that's going on with this merger. So first of all, all week long we're getting this news that the AGs have capitulated to basically the threat that the company would leave Los Angeles and not do the filmmaking in Nashville instead of not doing any filmmaking in Los Angeles.

57:02Right. And so under that pressure, they came up with a deal where they would create an independent board that would oversee CNN. And people look closer and like, oh, David Ellison would appoint the members of this independent board and that they would agree to make a certain amount of movies. And people looked closer, including yourself, and were like, actually, I'm not sure they've actually agreed to do anything at all. So first of all, what do you understand from this judicial order pausing this situation? is is there any hope here or we or should we just assume we're going to get the public is going to get rolled over eventually anyway?

57:40So there have been so many curveballs with this thing that I want to do zero prognosticating. But what is at stake are three things. Like JP Morgan's oil analysts. Is that right? They announced last week they're done. Yeah. Is that right? Yeah. They're like, we don't have any. So look, this is a judge who is a serious judge, is a confident judge, there's three things she's going to be looking at. Is this fair, adequate, and reasonable? Is this in the public interest? And does this violate the underlying law that the lawsuit was filed under? And so, you know, you might be able to say a couple things about this bizarre independent oversight board.

58:22You know, you might say, wait, this was an antitrust case. This is like a speech thing. What's that about? You might also say that a independent oversight board that is supposed to be independent of the Ellisons, that is named by the Ellisons, that reports by the Ellisons is not in the public interest. So it's hard to say how this plays out. There are a lot of unhappy people with the settlement. So there is a world where they try to intervene or try to file an amicus and hit some of these points. It would be unusual for this thing to be turned over, you know, to be completely shot down by the judge at this stage.

59:01But it is also unusual for an attorney general to sing to the high heavens that is red line as divestments and then win zero divestments. What does he mean by divestments for people not sure in this? So this isn't just like a deal between one streamer and another streamer. This is a one media conglomerate with another media conglomerate. So you have two of the five legacy studios, TV and film studios, becoming one. You have two of the five biggest owners of cable channels becoming one. You have two of the five biggest streamers becoming one. And so the unusual thing that the Attorney General of California, Rob Bonta, did was go out there and just say, I'm not interested, bro, with these little weak settlement offers until you come to the table and want to talk about structural remedies, which means unless you're ready to sell off your stuff, don't come talk to me.

59:58And the actors, the filmmakers, the crews who signed this massive petition to stop this merger, they listened to him and they took him seriously. They thought, hey, this thing actually might stop. And so when he goes into that room and wins zero sell-offs, divestment, structural remedies, it was a total shock to the system. Right. And so the counter argument that I've seen is there's not a strong case here because you've got these big streamers like Netflix that are gobbling everything up. And the only way for the studios to survive is by teaming up together. And it's not about competition between studios.

1:00:42It's actually about competition between this legacy industry and the industry of the future. And if they're going to survive and then pivot to the future, they need this strength in numbers. Yeah. Maybe there's some circumstances that is true. This entity would have been so, sorry, would have been, will be so massively bogged down by debt that there's an open question what the heck they'll be able to do. So already there is so much debt on this deal that Paramount has junk status for its credit. They are going to have to fire thousands upon thousands of people. And yet somehow. Let's put up D1.

1:01:31Go ahead. Yeah. Make more movies, make more TV shows that are better and more competitive. It doesn't math out. And so, yeah, there's certain circumstances where combining with another company makes you stronger. But what we saw at the FTC when we were in is we would hear this song and dance. We would block the merger. And then six months, 12 months later, like with NVIDIA Arm, right, this massive chip maker ecosystem deal. Oh, this is going to be critical to the industry. They need this to compete. Turns out they actually compete better when they're on their own. Is there a world in which this is actually just kind of a vulture situation where the investors here are just going to loot the thing and we'll look at the end of it in a decade or so?

1:02:19Hopefully not. I am for the people working in film and television, right? A lot of people think this is a rich person's industry. No, this is a blue collar industry and it's a national industry. I was fully against this merger. I still hate it. But I hope the company I hope for the sake of the people working there that they survive. There is a world, though, where when you're loaded down with 80 billion dollars in debt, it turns out to be more profitable to sell different parts off of it. So that is a that is a world we could be looking at down the road. I hope it doesn't get there. Isn't that with the AG, though?

1:02:57They want it from the AG? What's the difference between these fire sales down the road in bankruptcy versus spinning it off now? I think you said it. I think it's a fire sale. It's one thing to see the asset fully degraded and then say, hey. Sell it for the IP. Yeah. It's another thing to say, we're going to break off these studios that have this great IP and they're doing well, but it's just not part of the business model. And it's a difference between selling a viable competitor and selling a loser. And so California's AG, Rob Bonta, didn't even necessarily keep the company in Los Angeles. Let's listen to this.

1:03:38There is a commitment in the deal, the consent decree that we're filing, that they keep their lots here through the term of the deal. So they're not moving them. They can't sell them. They need to lease them for the similar purpose that they're there, you know, for making movies and TV shows. So the lots are in the agreement. Is that the same as having their headquarters remain in California? It is. And I believe that will be the case, that they will have their headquarters in California for the foreseeable future.

1:04:10Emily Jashinsky:You believe that or it's part of the deal? It's not part of the deal. It's not? It's not part of the deal. The body language there, Alvaro, towards the end, he kind of like shrinks into a non-existent being in front of our faces when asked that final question. So what do you gather from this inability to get into the deal that they will stay in Los Angeles? What did they get? Honestly, it makes me sad to say it, but he got played. He got played. the pressure that was put on him was to keep this thing in California but as even he himself admits he got a guarantee that the lot would stay operating under either them or someone else in the film and tv industry and and like so many other parts of this deal it is unfortunately and again it pains me to say it the opposite of what it purports to be you know They say there's an independence board actually controlled by the Ellisons.

1:05:10They say this is about keeping Paramount headquarters in California. It doesn't say that. They say this is about making 30 films a year. Actually, no. It only promises that they'll make, in other words, produce 15 films a year. And there's few guarantees about the remaining films. They could be something they buy on the cheap and put no marketing dollars behind. And anyone in Hollywood will tell you, if you make a film and you have zero marketing budget, it's like a tree falling in the woods. No one sees it. What do you make of this report from the Hollywood Reporter and put up D4 with David Ellison basically saying, I would never leave Los Angeles.

1:05:47I love it. I have so many feelings about this, but let me just say the move of I'm going to take my, you know, capital ball and go home. This is a established move in the oligarch playbook. Larry Ellison did this, I believe, with Oracle. Obviously, Elon Musk did it with Tesla. And I don't know what it is as to why it keeps on working, but it does keep on working. And the unfortunate fact is if you look at the actual numbers, there's going to be massive layoffs at these companies. And so they're trading away this vague guarantee of – they're taking this vague guarantee of we're going to keep the headquarters in the state even though they're giving up the fact that there will, as a matter of fact, be massive layoffs in the state.

1:06:43And that's the other very strange aspect of this deal is that they secured, in theory,$1.5 billion over five years of more domestic spend in production. And look, this industry is hurting. And so, you know, OK, that's OK. But A.G. Bonta said this is about California jobs. There's no earmark for that within California. Last year, according to a report issued by the LA Economic Development Commission, of the 19 films that Warner Brothers and Paramount made, one of them was made in California. It wasn't even in Los Angeles. It was in Eureka. It was one battle after another. So, you know, doesn't guarantee California jobs, doesn't guarantee California headquarters, doesn't guarantee independence, doesn't guarantee 30 films.

1:07:34this is, it's really hard to square it with the position that they were in before. I've heard people say that if this deal goes through, it's basically the end of Hollywood. Like, why are people saying that? Why is it so much worse for workers and the industry writ large if it goes through? Yeah. So I think people need to understand how bad things are for film and TV workers. So one thing we did at the American Economic Liberties Project together with the Writers Guild, we did these town halls in independent theaters and the Writers Guild in New York. So Los Angeles, Atlanta, New York. I think people need to understand that you can go to Atlanta, meet someone, let's say in the art department, look at their IMDb, and you can tell they're a master crafts person.

1:08:25I worked on Stranger Things, I worked on The Walking Dead. I worked in Atlanta, you know, going back even further than that. And they'll sit there and tell you, I haven't had a job since 2024. I don't have health insurance because I can't find work. And again, let's stay focused on Atlanta because people get it in their heads. This is about Hollywood. The people in Atlanta have gone through more mergers than they can count. because you'll remember, these are the Ted Turner properties. All right. So it was bought by AT &T. It was bought by AOL. It was bought by David Zaslav and Discovery. Now it's getting bought by by David Ellison.

1:09:06Every single one of those mergers, they shed thousands of jobs. And so they know the reason some people say this is the end of the industry is that they know this will only mean more layoffs. And already these guys can't pay their rent. They can't, qualify for health insurance under their guilds, right? Because a lot of these guys are 1099s. I do think there is a measure of hope here, if it's okay to share a hopeful note. The film and TV industry in this country is very special because it is one of the few places where we actually have a blueprint for what it looks like to have a level playing field where the small players can survive.

1:09:49Rewind 30, 40 years ago, we had these things called FinCEN rules. We had the Paramount decrees that said, hey, if you make movies or if you make TV shows, you can't also own the distribution of them, whether it's TV, the broadcast channels or the movie theaters. We had limits on how many broadcast affiliates any one of these media conglomerates could own. We have done away with all of those things. And in fact, the chief counsel for Paramount undid one of those things, which were the Paramount Decrees, and then he went to work for Paramount. But the power here is that we know we can return to that world because we lived in that world.

1:10:25We know we can expand in that world because the blueprint's already there. And so there's sectoral bargaining for film and TV in a way that you actually don't have in almost any other industry in this country. And so my hope is that this is a galvanizing and honestly radicalizing moment because this was one of the rare circumstances where there's a huge outpouring of people in the industry. Usually, whether it's an ag merger or something else, people are terrified. People weren't terrified. They came close to winning this thing, even though DOJ, the politicals basically sidelined it. And they almost got there.

1:11:02And yet they just swept in and kicked out the legs from under them. So I want to ask you about, I want to ask you about Gavin Governor Gavin Newsom's role in all of this. We can put up D5 here where he says, we are grateful to Attorney General Bonta and his fellow AGs, as well as the WGA, for engaging in good faith to find a path forward to a resolution that serves all parties and to Governor Newsom for his support throughout this process. And then you can put up D4, which you have Newsom out expressing concerns about this entry trust suit. yeah um is it what why if you're gavin newsom do you really want to be getting thanked for a deal that everybody says is destroying the the most important or at least culturally the most important industry in your state what's going on here i think this is deeply shameful um i think people today want champions who aren't scared of uh billionaire bullies and the thing about gavin Newsom.

1:12:04And frankly, I'm grateful that the mask is fully off here because he talks this big game online. He is this culture warrior online with his tweets. And yet when he's going head to head with one of the president's greatest allies in a deal that will eviscerate this industry, he can't handle the heat for more than two minutes. And look, I am very critical of A.G. Rob Bonta, but this thing started with Gavin Newsom. It would not happen, I am confident, but for Gavin Newsom throwing in his support and with the Ellisons. But this is something I think everyone needs to watch for. I'm sure you've seen it.

1:12:43You saw it with Seth Moulton right before he lost to Ed Markey. Everyone's an economic populist today. Anyone on the left, certainly, who's planning on winning is going to be out there with the song and dance saying, oh yeah, I'm with the people against the oligarchs. Is that right? All right. Let's see if you can handle this heat and and Newsom didn't. Neither did Javier Becerra, and they're doing a huge disservice to their people because of it. All right, well, maybe this judge, Martinez Ogun. Ogun, yeah. Ogun, maybe she'll be the hero, as time means. If not, we've got the mask. There we go.

1:13:19Gavin Newsom's mask is off. A shout out to Last Ditch Bar in Western Massachusetts. It's Alvaro Bedoya, former FTC commissioner, really helpful. Thanks for walking us through this. Anytime.

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1:14:47Lisa, tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa DiGiulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions. And at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, Good Taste is my business. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Brakeman. Angela Geritana. Jeremy Colhane.

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