9/28/26: Ai Industry Data Center Party, Xi Plays Trump, Trump Gaslights In Midterm Ad

25:29No, that's not what I'm saying. But what I am saying is given the long-term trends of the declining U.S. military power and especially the tradeoffs that we've now made and really the sacrificing of a lot of defense in East Asia, I don't think it's an accident that she is starting to bring a lot of this up with Trump. Yeah, absolutely. And Trump is also very inclined towards his view of spheres of influence. So you could see him being like, oh, that's their sphere of influence. So they're allowed to do what they want to do. Let's go and put the FT right up here of what went down. On D4, their takeaway is pomp prevails over substance.

26:03As Donald Trump hosts Xi Jinping, I think that's pretty accurate based on what I can tell. There wasn't much that was agreed on. Probably the biggest, well, the biggest two deliverables is, number one, China's going to give us some more pandas. Amazing. Adorable. I think they're going to the zoo in Atlanta, maybe. And second of all, this AI red phone that we discussed last week where there will be a hotline where if there's some sort of an AI incident, And the leaders can be in touch with each other. The countries can be in touch with each other quickly, which I think is good. I'm glad to see that.

26:34And there's some sort of that starts to lead in the direction of gaining confidence about our ability to collaborate on AI, which is going to be necessary because it is a global technology. This isn't something that you can keep within the borders of one country. So that's positive to see. Other than that, that's really about it. And Trump literally and figuratively rolled out the red carpet for Xi. Very different, you know, and all these things are sort of tedious, but they matter a lot in diplomatic circles and especially in a country like China. When Trump went to China, Xi did not meet him coming off the plane.

27:09Trump did meet Xi coming off the plane here, rolled out the red carpet, had the big state dinner, brought in all the tech conchos and all of that sort of stuff. That's a win for China that wants to be seen as a peer of the United States. So that for them is a sort of, you know, symbolic victory. And this has been all over their state media. That thing about Trump meeting him, I mean, I even said it here. I was like, look, I know nobody here cares, but over there that stuff matters a lot. They're obsessed with protocol. And it was all over their state media. They're like, Trump met him there, and look at how much respect he gives Chairman Xi.

27:44And apparently there were all these brawls at the White House between the Chinese press and the American press about who could stand where. That's kind of par for the course. in terms of state visits with China. But yeah, I mean, overall, it was a fascinating visit because it was literally all pomp, no circumstance. Yeah. And I mean, that does say something, that the Chinese were not in a position where they had to say, okay, we'll give you this. Okay, we'll give you this. And we keep the trade war piece down the road a few more months. Which always happens. And, you know, I think the status quo there is China basically, when we try to impose these gigantic tariffs, they were like, okay, well, we can hold your rare earth minerals hostage.

28:22And ultimately we were like, okay, well, you got us there. So I guess we're going to basically cave. And so we're kind of in this, you know, in between status quo situation with them on that piece as well. So no real progress there, just sort of kicking the can down the road in terms of any larger economic dealings. Correct. All right, let's get to the midterms. This is Jacob Goldstein from What's Your Problem. Running a business is hard enough. Don't make it harder with a dozen apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. That's software overload.

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30:05So as we get very close to the midterm elections, Trump is now going up with a new political ad. However, this ad is not being paid for by any PAC or super PAC or campaign. It is being paid for by you. Blatantly political ad pumping up Trump coming from taxpayer dollars. Sagar actually saw this yesterday. Live watching football. Let's go ahead and take a look at the ad. This is the final battle. With you at my side, we will demolish the deep state. We will expel the warmongers from our government. We will drive out the globalists. We will cast out the communists, Marxists, and fascists. We will throw off the sick political class that hates our country.

30:50We will rout the fake news media. And we will liberate America from these villains once and for all. So it literally at the bottom says paid for by the U.S. government. Yeah, I was. You and me. Our tax dollars going to that. I was literally in shock. I think it was the Chargers game. And I see and all of a sudden I hear this. I'm like, oh, it must be some campaign ad. And then I thought to myself, how ironic will drive the warmongers out of Washington. I was like, bro, look like look inside the house. You know, it's like and then I was I made that comment. I was like, can you believe they just ran this ad?

31:28And I'm assuming it's like some local Republican Party. And then I was like, there's no way I said I even tweeted that I go. Did I really just watch a U.S. government paid ad of Trump saying I'm going to drive warmongers out of Washington? Like, look inside the building, man. Especially, you're in the middle of the Iran war. That's like a campaign speech from 2016. So a couple of things. First of all, crazy that the U.S. government is paying for that ad. Of course, Kirstie Noem has previously ran ads like pumping her cell phone, which I remember also watching live on Fox News. But I'd actually pay attention to the message.

32:00The fact that they are running this 2016-style ad of like we're going to clean out Washington, drain the swamp, no more warmongers, no more globalism, when that is quite literally what you're engaged in right now. So even they know that they have to run basically a taxpayer-funded gaslighting campaign on national television. And we shouldn't underestimate how many people are going to see this ad. Now, do I think that they're going to see it and that it's going to be effective? No, I think a lot of people are going to have the same reaction. Be like, dude, the guy who was in the middle of the Iran war is saying we're going to drive warmongers out of Washington.

32:34So I don't think it's necessarily going to work out to their benefit. But they bought hyper expensive real estate across the entire 1 p.m. slate for all of NFL football. And I got a lot of other people telling me, they're like, oh, I saw it during this game. I know that it played in primetime. They made a specific targeted ad buy for the NFL, which is when the best and most expensive advertising real estate in the nation. Yeah. And to your point about the efficacy of it, normally what happens when you have a very unpopular president during a midterm election, which Trump is now the most unpopular president, incumbent president during a midterm election in modern history, normally you want that person to kind of go away and for candidates to be able to assert their independence from that person.

33:23So the fact that, you know, he's making himself omnipresent here with this gaslighting campaign. Again, not sure that's exactly what Republicans are hoping for. Interesting moment from Republican Senator Kennedy, who is quite a character, by the way. You may have appreciated his work in the Kash Patel bestiality questioning, if you want to go back and look at some of his previous comedic stylings. In any case, he was asked, hey, how about this U.S. taxpayer-funded ad for President Trump? And again, And Republican had to be like, yeah, this is not really something I support. Let's take a look at that.

33:59I don't think any public official, including President Trump or Kristi Noem or John Kennedy, should spend public money on private ads for themselves. Now, the White House sees it differently, but I think there ought to be a rule that you can't. Well, there probably is a rule. You can't spend public money to promote yourself. I may end up with a sombrero on my head, but I also think that we ought to have a rule that no politician can have a building named after him while he's alive. There you go. So, you know, pushing back on Trump on two things here, one of them near and dear to his heart, which is the naming of public buildings in the city after him.

34:51And the other one being this taxpayer funded ad where I like when he catches himself. He's like, there should be a rule against this. And he's like, there probably is a rule against this. Yes, it probably is illegal. It is probably illegal to use taxpayer dollars for blatant electioneering of this manner. Now, it can be contested. You don't directly tell people to vote for the Republicans, etc. et cetera. So maybe it falls into a gray area. I'm not sure, but I think most people will look at this and go, this should be illegal. Yeah. I mean, we should probably just say the US government should put ads, period.

35:18Because I didn't even, you know, because I was like, oh, but Obama ran ads for Obamacare. And I'm like, yeah, well, that was Obamacare. I mean, I get it. It's Obamacare. But, you know, this is seems to be a little bit different in the lead up to a midterm election. Just look, I'm going to put all this legality bullshit aside. The fact is the guy's paying for the ad and literally saying he's going to stop doing things or he's going to stop things that he is doing. So how is this going to work? Like I can't be the only person who was like, I cannot believe that that was – I can't believe that the person at war with Iran is going to say I'm going to drive the warmongers out of Washington.

35:54Like that just seems totally insane to me. And I think that that cognitive dissonance, but basically like outright lying, is just going to massively backfire come midterm time. Let's put E6 up on the screen. So this is some more New York Times reporting about some of the things we've already covered here. A number of Republicans, including Mike Rogers, who is like quintessential neocon for years and years and pushing for the Iran war, celebrated the Iran war until he looked at the polls and was like, I literally cannot win if I hold this position, is now claiming he wants it to end. Ashley Hinson in Iowa, a state that should never have been even contested for Republicans and now appears to be down in the polls.

36:33She has voted in favor of this war multiple times and now all of a sudden is like, oh, I want it to end. In any case, this, along with what you heard from John Kennedy, along what we've seen from Senator Curtis in Utah, who wants to investigate Don Jr. and his wedding funding, you are starting to see some Republicans break with Trump. And there is a question of whether this will be a trickle and then Trump will reassert control and will replay the same dynamics we've seen over and over again, which is just ask Thomas Massey, if you go too far in terms of your Trump criticism, you're going to find yourself out of good standing with the Republican Party, or whether this is the start of a larger dam-breaking flood that could potentially come after the midterm elections if you do have some sort of a massive reckoning.

37:25And I think, you know, that is really the kind of question on the table right now. And it's in that light that I see put E5 up on the screen, this Trump freak out over this longtime Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar, who, yeah, which one is it? It's E5, put this up on the screen. So she put out an ad where she straight to the camera, you know, kind of chided Trump a bit over the aggressive mass deportation policies. This is very interesting. Her district's overwhelmingly Cuban. And Cubans have long gotten a pass from other major immigration pushes. They've literally, by the law, been treated differently.

38:07And I was talking to Ryan about this because he's got, like, family and professional ties in South Florida. And he was like, look, there's a racism to this of, like, oh, no, we're not like those people. So the fact that Cubans have also been included and treated the same way in the mass deportation policy has been a big problem for them. So she put out this ad like, you know, you're going too far effectively in a very diplomatic language. He had a total crash out over this, posted like 14 different times, was amplifying Laura Loomer saying Republicans should kick her out and find a new candidate for this seat, etc.

38:39And the reason I think he's crashing out so hard over this is to try to make an example of her and try to get people back in line. He needs to enforce his control over the party right now because he can also see these few little slippages of people trying to distance themselves. And also worries that if the midterm goes really poorly for Republicans, maybe he does face a little bit of pushback from Republicans that he's really never seen before during his time in office. Salazar is an interesting case. she is best described as one of these South Florida neocons, like, you know, literally in terms, oh, we must liberate Venezuela.

39:15We have to liberate Cuba. And then we should invite them all here because we love them. You know, I mean, this is why I have no sympathy for her. Like you said, these people, like they are, they literally had all these laws like wet foot, dry foot and all this other nonsense in U.S. immigration law, which basically exempted them from every other type of asylum group on the planet. And then all of a sudden I'm like, yeah, you're here illegally. Sorry. It turns out, you know, you're not different than everybody else in her district. I will also say she has always been one of these immigrant, like immigration dove, I guess, for lack of a better word.

39:50She basically introduced an amnesty bill years ago. I, Trump didn't even say anything at the time. In terms of this ad, the only reason that she's coming under fire is because she said that Trump went too far, ironically enough. I see it more in terms of what you're saying. They need to enforce loyalty to him within the party. And, I mean, that can go both ways because politicians are deeply self-interested people. They will only do what is in their best interest. For now, like they showed with Massey, you break with Trump, you'll have an ocean of money spent against you and Trump will endorse your opponent.

40:27The question is how long that's going to continue to work. I will not, though, let people delude themselves. Salazar may win, to be clear, just because South Florida is unique. It's kind of a different place. But overall, Trump is still very popular with Republicans. Like, people need to grapple with that, especially primary. Primary boomers are mainline in information that you and I would look at and be like, I can't even believe this shit is real. But that's the reality of Fox News, of Jesse Waters, and all of this other stuff that they are getting on an absolute daily basis. So I do think that that's like something I wanted to highlight is that there is, for them, they really are stuck in a very difficult place because nationally they can be unpopular.

41:06But inside the party, there is still nobody like him. It's just not, there's nothing like that. There's no kind of force or defection that can actually, there's no defection with a positive incentive. And Massey is a perfect example, a kind of poster child of all of that. And this is kind of how I'm thinking about it going into the midterms. I think after the midterms, though, you are going to see some people who, okay, Trump is, he's old. He's going to be done in just a couple of years. He's deeply unpopular, less popular now than he was after January 6th. Okay, deeply unpopular. His committed, diehard fan base is dwindling.

41:47You have more people who sort of like tepidly support him versus he used to have this rock solid fan base. You are going to see some entrepreneurial politicians who think there's a lane to come out in some way against Trump and position themselves for 2028 as the inheritors of the Republican Party and, you know, as a break from what this past era has been. So I do think that creates some dangers for him that perhaps didn't exist in the past. But you're absolutely right to say, you know, most of these politicians are cowards. They don't want to be like Maria Salazar and be put on blast and have their standing with Republicans threatened, which may hurt her re-election, even though in a certain way you can look at it and be like, well, the fact that Trump's mad at her, maybe that helps establish her position as a more independent voice.

42:34On the other hand, if you depress Republican turnout or even have some right in Canada or whatever that takes a few percentage points away from her, that could absolutely be devastating. So in any case, most of these people don't want to be put on blast by the president of the United States. So it does help to scare them back into line. I wanted to put E7 up on the screen. This is from, again, speaks to how in places like Iowa, there is more possibility of Democrats winning than anyone would have expected. You had Chuck Grassley, who is the 93-year-old senator from Iowa, who still has four years left on his term, meaning that if he survives, he will be leaving office at 97 years old.

43:19He said at this GOP dinner, quote, one of the reasons I'm worried about who's going to be elected governor. I don't plan on dying in office, but if I did, I don't want a Democrat governor choosing my replacement. And the Senate race is much closer. The governor race, it looks like Rob Sand is going to win. I mean, every poll I've seen has him up. It looks like he is quite popular in the state and that he is starting to pull away in the polling. So just a real statement on the nature of our gerontocracy that one of the chief concerns here is that this 93-year-old senator is worried about dying in the next couple of years and having his replacement pick by a Democratic governor.

44:04Let's go. Last thing I wanted to mention, E4, this has been on my mind, and I'm going to ask Logan about it tomorrow as well. This was from Lakshad Jain. He had an interesting model and take about current polls. He says, our model is built on a lot of polling, including our own. It really bothers me how absurdly different the drop-off of white respondents are in our polling. Whites who completed our polls swing 10 % to the left. Whites who don't barely swing at all. I'm guessing this is not unique to our polling. If a model whiffs badly, it'll probably whiff on whites, and it would mean far more low-propensity Republicans showed up to vote.

44:42It means that the ones who didn't respond to polls were attitudinally very different and shifting far less than the ones who did respond, but were underrepresented in polling, meaning that we may over-project the swing. I don't think this is the case because people really hate Trump too. I just don't expect him to show up in a midterm like this. It nags me. In other words, if the polls are off, they'll be off for the same reason they've been off for the last 10 years, which is basically you have whites who don't complete college degrees, who are unreachable, don't complete polls, despite the fact that they've had over 12 years, I guess, now at this time to fix this literal problem, which predates even Donald Trump in 2016.

45:20I do wonder, I mean, how much of this – we've talked about it before. like with the DSA effect where, yeah, I mean, it's easy to see that a highly motivated, college-educated white base is going to be massively, you know, is going to respond and be involved in politics. Angie Nixon aside, like that's who they are. Well, the vast majority of like the Republican base is like low propensity whites and Hispanics. panics and we have like some data, you know, whenever it comes to those groups, but lack of response was the number one thing that killed the polls in 2020. That's why I just want to flag it where, remember, remember the polls in 2020, Susan Collins down by 13.

46:03She wins by a couple points. Remember South Carolina, which had, who's that idiot's name? The guy who raised - Harrison. Harrison. Harrison. He's up by 18. Loses by the same margin that the previous opponent, that Lindsey Graham, had run against, you know, despite having like hundreds of millions of dollars. I just think it's important to flag. It could be off. I mean, look, we could have D plus two, but in the way that the media and everybody, including us, have reported this, that would be an underperformance of expectations. It would be huge. And that would mean the Republicans would either keep the House or it would be in play.

46:36Yeah, completely. I mean, And we don't have to think back long. We're talking about Iowa to remember a very wildly off. Yeah, the whole Seltzer thing. Who was known as like the Iowa pollster. I mean, she was the gold standard and she nailed it. And she fell for this exact same problem. Time after time after time. Yeah. And this was exactly the issue that she had is that the people that responded to the poll were the people who were very excited about voting for Democrats. And then the people who didn't respond didn't get captured in the survey. And so she wildly missed what was going on in a state that she knows so well and had previously polled so accurately.

47:12So you have to keep those things in mind that that is certainly a possibility. Now, one thing that's different is Trump is not on the ballot. He's usually the one that causes the biggest miscounts with the polls because he does inspire this different set of voters that don't seem to just show up for regular Republicans. This is part of why he said to the electorate, pretend I am on the ballot. That may seem insane given how unpopular he is, and it might be insane ultimately. But that's the group he's trying to reach. He wants that coalition that only turns up for him to show up for the rest of these Republicans.

47:48And the last piece here is, you know, that it's important to keep these grains of salt in mind when you see polls like this one, which feel literally unbelievable. This is a South Carolina poll by Trafalgar, which is known for, I mean, frankly, they have gotten it right when Trump has been on the ballot. They have been able to assess those sort of infrequent voters who don't pick up the phone, et cetera. But in any case, they have this South Carolina poll up that has Darlene Graham, the Republican, Lindsey Graham's sister, up by a single point on Annie Andrews. So it's 43.4 to 42.3 in this Trafalgar poll.

48:32And so this is one I have an eye on. Ryan and I were talking about this a little bit last week. I, you know, I think Darlene Graham is going to win. If I had to, like, put some money down or, like, really say or make a prediction today, I would say Darlene Graham is going to win. It's South Carolina. We haven't had a South Carolina Democratic senator in a very long time. It's a very red state, et cetera. However, I can imagine people being like, who is this lady? Like, they didn't even like Lindsey Graham very much. Right. And now you're just shoving his sister down our throat who clearly knows nothing about anything.

49:03It's like very disrespectful. And I do think Americans, wherever they live and whatever political affiliation they have, they really react very negatively to that sort of thing of like, oh, your mom or your dad or your brother was a senator. And now you think we should just show up and vote for you because we're just mindless lemmings and you're trying to shove this down our throat. So I could imagine I could imagine it could imagine there being a backlash to her just being pushed forward and voters resenting that that is the choice that's been put on them. And Andrews seems like a good candidate, too.

49:39I mean, the big warning sign for Democrats here is that they're I mean, first of all, they are behind by a point, but also nowhere near 50 percent. So those undecideds you would think are ultimately going to vote break for the Republicans. But it is one of these polls where you look at it and you go, you know, how far how far could this go? Like, are we going to see an election that is that crazy where states like Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina, Alaska, Texas are truly on the table for Democrats? I just I have a really hard time believing it. You sent a good article. I think we'll talk about a lot tomorrow.

50:11Is this 94 or is it 2018? And that's a great heuristic. 94, I was two years old, so don't remember it. Have read about it. But the question around it is, can we elect Democrats in red states and not the type of Democrat like a Collins or, I guess, Democrat or Republican, depending on how you kind of think of it. Not the type of maverick like Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and or who am I trying to think of? Joe Manchin. Joe Manchin. Or who is the guy in Alabama? Doug Jones, right? Are those the type of people who are the last dying breed who can get elected? Or is it a genuine realignment election, a actual complete step change from the partisan era, which has dominated American politics 2010 to 2026?

51:01That's a 16-year run. If you look at history and maps and cycling, we're on the table actually for a complete shift from where things are. it would make sense that Trump who ushered in the first realignment could break, you know, kind of the previous paradigm, but in the wrong direction. So that is the open question. I just, I don't know. I always, one lesson I have from 2016, 2020 to 2024 is you cannot underestimate like hyper, like, and when I say partisanship, I just, it's really not like I love Republicans. It's discussed with like cultural leftism is kind of the best way I can possibly describe it.

51:36That's the only through line that runs through all three of those elections, including with the midterms. Remember Kavanaugh, 2018, immigration concerns that happened there at the time. So that's just the last thing on my mind is despite all these polls and all this coverage, they just keep coming back all the time, you know, and we don't have reason to doubt that it's over. I was thinking about, um, I was actually watching a thing about 2016, which was giving me a total PTSD, but, um, You know, Hillary, famously, takes for granted the blue wall, barely goes to Michigan, Michigan doesn't go to Wisconsin at all.

52:09No, zero. They thought they were putting all these other states into play. They're like spending time in North Carolina, which Obama had won, but Democrats hadn't been able to maintain their, you know, any sort of dominance in. So they were playing the game of like, oh, we're going to expand the map. It's going to be a shellacking. She didn't even write a concession speech. She fell asleep while the results were coming in because it was such a foregone conclusion in their mind. And so and that's what the polls showed. If you were looking at the polls, that's what you would expect. Although if you do go back and look, they were a lot more narrow than was sort of like being felt at the time.

52:45But there was just such a there was such confidence in polling at that point, too. You hadn't had these gigantic misses. There were all kinds of confidence in like the modelers, the Nate Silvers of the world looking at this and like, oh, Hillary's going to win. Hillary's going to win. It's not even going to be close. And at the end of the day, obviously, we know the history of that. So you could, after election night, look back at it. I think Democrats are going to have a good night. I think they're going to do pretty well. I think the House is pretty much like a foregone conclusion. However, they may look silly the day after to have flirted with South Carolina.

53:20Mississippi, we're going to, I want to talk to Logan about this tomorrow. Democrats are putting money into Mississippi Senate race. You know, Florida, like these states that it may end up looking ridiculous that there was ever any thought that these things were on the table. And it could end up being much more like 2018, where the typical battleground states continue to be the typical battleground states. Right. I have accepted my long out of touch nature and I could not imagine. In 2020, I remember, and I was looking at the way that the pandemic and everything was going. And I was just like, you know, I really don't see how Biden could lose this election.

53:57I'm like, I just don't see it. I'm like, how is this even possible? And then Trump comes, what, 100 ,000 votes in three states? Oh, and those polls— From winning? Remember, those polls had Biden winning like 18 points in Wisconsin. I'm not remembering all the details, but by double digits in some of those blue wall states. It looked like it was going to be a landslide. And it did make some sense because, yeah, the pandemic was going on. Trump was unpopular. It was a mess, right? A very chaotic time. And yet it ended up being— Right. He's 100 ,000 votes. So look, my thing is just with Trump is he, I'm not counting out until he's out.

54:32Like the guy literally won the popular vote two years ago and very few people. I forget what the odds of that were. It was like 10 % or something that were, uh, you know, in terms of a lot of the models. So I, I just always caution people is, you know, you can have a lot of hopium on either side, but Trump is all, he's just always been this dynamic force in American politics. But we have history to show that people like that, Obama and others, have never had the immense amount of success translating that into a midterm election. And so that's always the counterbalance in our view. But I do think it's important that people should – you should consume all the information and realize like don't just take these things at face value.

55:13You have too much data at this point to do so. And we'll always continue to remind you of that. So excited to talk to Logan about that, and we'll see you all tomorrow. some people use chat gpt to answer questions others use it to get real work done with chat gpt work you bring the goal plus real inputs like briefs notes files feedback data and project plans it can help turn them into an analysis tracker deck outline prototype or workflow you can review and keep shaping you stay in control giving direction and choosing the final output put chat gpt to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects get started at chat gpt.com by selecting work mode.

55:50Available on Plus and Pro Plans. This is Tony A.O. from The Real Report with Tony A.O. and Uncle Murda. You ever notice how everything keeps going up? Rent, streaming, even extra salsa at your favorite burrito spot? But with Boost Mobile, you don't have to play the Will It's Go Up Soon game. Boost Mobile offers an unlimited talk, text, and data plan at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for life. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up, only at Boost Mobile. After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay$25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan.

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