9/28/26: Iran UK Threat Incident, Iran Ready For Doomsday War, OpenAI Agent Swarm Attacks

24:37Ultimately, he decided no war, no peace, which was a disaster in the end. It got him literally killed and blown up by the Israelis. And so this time around, you have this controversy and struggle within their government between literally having to want like deciding basically burn the boats. Let's go all in and see what we can get or to try this kind of piecemeal diplomatic approach where, you know, something I noticed with the Iranians is that they're like obsessed with the United Nations multilateralism and being respected by the rest of the world. Take a lesson from North Korea. They don't give a shit what the rest of the world thinks.

25:14They have nuclear weapons and that's it. And everybody else has to go, okay. You know, and I just feel like they are still obsessed with good relations with Europe and our brothers throughout the region and meeting and bilateralism. And this could be just inherent to like their regime and like I get it. You know, these nations like they want to feel like they're respected or at least like seen on an equal playing field. But that comes through military force at the end of the day. And so then that leads to two questions. Either they're being indecisive, which is what I think, but the alternative is not good for them, which is that they are really hurting right now.

25:52And there's not any – there is some information. Again, we're sorting through the propagandistic reports of the Pentagon. But you got 13, 14 million barrels-ish a day on average depending on the day kind of moving through the straight-up form. So you have decreased traffic by seven. Where is the current price of Brent crude? So Brent crude is currently$100 a barrel. Bad for us, not catastrophic, not$150. It decided to go down a little bit after some of those initial bilateral negotiations. So your long-term strategy there, it definitively did not work. It drove oil prices up, but it didn't go sky high and create a global energy crisis.

26:29You also are losing generally every single day X billion dollars because of your inability to export oil. In the long term, this does not work to your benefit. Clearly, a long war is beneficial to the United States. The best thing you can do when you are an inferior military power is to inflict as much maximum damage while you have kind of the element either of surprise. you have the element of surprise, you have the strategic advantage of the population on your side. The longer this goes on, there will be more economic crisis in the country. There could be famine if this goes on for years. And that will just break all of the internal coalition.

27:10The rally around the flag only lasts for so long. So that means that, and they're not stupid, they know all of this, it could be that they don't have the same military force or they're saving it for something. But at a certain point, I'm like, what are you saving it for? And the midterm thing is interesting because let's put B5 on the screen here. And this is where I just think things are always trending in this direction. At the end of the day, Trump, you know, rejects Iran ceasefire, expects renewed bombing after the midterms. This is from the Wall Street Journal. Privately, Trump is skeptical Iran would meet his demands and has told his staff he sees a renewed bombing campaign.

27:41As likely, he said it publicly, which we'll show you here in a little bit, but specifically that they basically plan on bombing after the midterms. To me, this is just, this is how it's going to go. Trump has to admit total and complete defeat. Now you can do it now. It's kind of like Afghanistan. You could do it after two years or you can wait 20. But at the end of the day, some U.S. president has to cry uncle. Iran wants to be Trump. Trump has the capacity to keep this thing going forever, basically, because of the way that our current military and everything is structured. Like everyone, I mean, it wouldn't be good, but we can all live with$4 gasoline.

28:16It's not going to cause a total crisis. So I just don't really get from the Iranian side. Like now is the time, if anything. Yeah, I mean, there's a couple things. It could be that all of the rhetoric and actions around the U.N. and international acceptance and making sure they have a moral position in justifying the attacks that they make. That could actually be about their own domestic audience justifying what you're doing. I mean, remember, it's a very religious society, you know, and everything is framed in terms of a moral and religious dimension. That could be part of it. Part of the calculus could be, hey, this dude who's in here who's completely insane.

28:54he's only going to be here for max two years longer, assuming that he survives the remainder of his term. Maybe we just wait him out. Maybe on the other side of that, the American people will be so done with this that the next president we get will likely run on, I'm ending the Iran war. This is ridiculous. We're not doing that anymore, which is, I think, a very likely outcome of 2028. So maybe they're thinking they'll just wait Trump out. Or maybe this was the last ditch effort at some sort of diplomacy, and they are going to escalate. There are some indications in that regard. We can put V7 up on the screen.

29:26So there was all this analysis about how a lot more oil was getting through the Strait of Hormuz, like not quite pre-war levels, but close to pre-war levels. Last week, while the UN was going on, now Iran is saying that they struck 19 ships in the Strait of Hormuz over the past two nights. This hasn't been confirmed or verified, but they say Iranian forces hit 12 vessels Friday night, seven more Saturday night if they tried to pass through unauthorized routes. That's according to the Iranian officials and state media apparatus. Claims cannot be independently verified. U.S. CENTCOM hasn't commented, which is interesting that they haven't shot it down.

30:07In any case, if we put B-8 up on the screen, you can see, based on satellite, that after these alleged attacks from Iranians, there are no ships, vessels present in the Strait of Hormuz trying to pass through. So Hormuz Strait after these attacks is empty. So they may be trying to reassert control because for them, the fact that you had close to pre-war levels of oil going through the strait, while they themselves, the blockade on Iran has been successful, they are not able to export. That would be a devastating state of affairs for them. They cannot lose control over the Strait of Hormuz or it's effectively game over.

30:46I totally agree. I don't know. Again, and you know, I always caveat with, it's really easy for me to say, to be like, oh, you got to go for the jugular. I'm like, yeah, well, that involves the deaths of like tens of thousands, probably of Iranians and a renewed bombing campaign, not to mention the Israelis getting involved again and who are obviously on standby. We do. And who would be happy to have it just be a failed state. Right. That's what they want. They'd be thrilled if you could just have a full-blown bombing campaign, eviscerate the country just like Gaza. Iranian civil war, devastation, yeah, that's what they would like.

31:16So they would be thrilled about that. So in a certain sense, I mean, look, it's the most, it's literally the problem from hell, you know, in terms of like, how do you deal with this? What do we do? We have cards to play. We don't have all the cards, obviously. Same with the United States and each is trying to outfox the other. Let's put B10. Let's take a listen. Scott Besant now says, the Iranian economy will probably collapse within the next two weeks. Take a listen. there's only 15 million more barrels of Iranian oil on the water, that Iran will have nothing left to trade for anything. They will have nothing to trade for anything.

31:54Probably within the next two weeks, they are going to make their final deliveries of oil to China, and then they will have nothing. It is an empty set, and I believe that they are feeling the pressure here, and that's why they want to deal. And you saw when President Trump was leaving the White House this morning, the Iranians say they'll open the straits within seven days. Larry, the straits are open. If you take out the Iranian oil, which we're not letting out, we're not letting it out, that we're averaging now 15 to 22 million barrels a day. It was at about 20 pre-conflict. So you take out the one and a half or two Iranian barrels.

32:40So think of it this way, Larry. The score is the United States, one billion, more than one billion barrels have gotten out, Iran, zero. That's right. You know, I call you, I continue to call you the best wartime Treasury Secretary since World War II. And I think it's a great story. I wouldn't go that far there. It's like, let's, um, let's. Larry, it's like he's falling asleep during the interview. You've probably forgotten a little bit about the U.S. strategy in World War II. But anyways, within two weeks is where we're at. But it's noteworthy. He's saying the strait is open. It's literally not.

33:19It's contested. You can't say Iran controls or the U.S. controls. And, you know, I did say there that Trump could keep this going as long as possible. But look, Iran takes pot shots every once in a while. The cruise missile takes a hit. You've got eight Marines, like I said. You know, I shouldn't have downplayed it. Right, smoke inhalation TBI is no joke. A lot of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans have horrific consequences of TBI. Yeah, that's right. So all of those injuries just get quietly updated, you know, on the Department of War database. But you kind of put all this together and you just start to see, I just think nobody, neither is fully in control of the conflict, which makes sense.

33:56That's what a lot of these protracted conflicts begin to look like. Everything starts to become like battle, internal battles within the battle itself. Like right now, it's all about Hormuz, even though it used to be about regime change. Already, that's a major strategic loss for the U.S., but Iran does need to maintain some control. And ultimately, they just need the American president and really the security establishment to basically give up on its current objective, which is the Strait of Hormuz control and say this is not worth it. They have not been able to do that as of yet, and they are suffering.

34:27You know, everything, again, everything I read is like U.S. classified reports or whatever in the journal. Iran's economy is suffering. I read that three months ago. I read that six months ago. I do believe that there's probably problems, right? I think it would be undeniable to say that. And so, you know, everything is, it's just very difficult to parse the reality of the information. But generally, I do feel like the Iranians are being very cautious. Yeah. And so I just don't know what to make of it. This is Jacob Goldstein from What's Your Problem? Running a business is hard enough. Don't make it harder with a dozen apps that don't talk to each other.

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36:31One last piece here. We talked a lot about this potential diesel export ban. Put B9 up on the screen. This is the latest information that we have. The White House is signaling they're not going to ban diesel exports. They may make some other more minor moves of like voluntary restrictions, which basically amounts to absolutely nothing. This is according to something that Senator Ted Cruz told refining industry leaders late Friday. So I don't know. I mean, maybe they'll go forward. You never know with Trump. They may go forward with it. But it seems like he even indicated, he said to some reporter like, oh, it might cause gas prices to go up a bit.

37:12And so probably when he learned that, he's like, I don't know if that's really gonna work out for me. It's an elementary talk with a guy like Rory who is like, yeah, in the interim it would do this. In the long term it would do – why? Right? You're like – so it would buy you a couple of weeks and it would also irrevocably break many U.S. alliances in Asia specifically who – we are the refiner and the exporter of last resort. So if you want to screw them, you can. I mean if you're an energy secretary, Kay Mountain was like, this is not a good idea. Right. It's a horrible idea. So anyway, it seems like they may be backing off of this.

37:47So we'll see. The thought has been occurring to me, and I don't know, this is based on my very limited knowledge of military tactics, but it seems like the new era of drone warfare has really leveled the playing field so that a smaller entity like Ukraine or like Iran can compete. and they can cause a lot of pain to a much larger and more militarily like conventional metrics, powerful nation. But it's not sufficient that they can actually win. And so now we're in this middle land where they can cause pain to us. We can obviously cause pain to them. Trump flirted with the idea of doing this MOU and basically accepting defeat.

38:31He decided that he could not bear the cost of that and was under too much pressure from a variety of different groups to be able to fully accept what would be required. And I'm not sure that Iran is able to inflict enough pain on the U.S. or the global economy in order to force a different outcome in that negotiated process. So in the meantime, we're just in this horrific middle ground where the Iranians are suffering. I have no doubt that the economic pain there is deep and is real, where things are getting intolerable. I'm reading all this analysis about food banks that are seeing a massive surge in people who are relying on donated food because gas prices have just pushed them over the cliff.

39:16You're flirting with some sort of a global economic meltdown the longer this goes on. We talked about the treasury bonds and the petrodollar. And, you know, Then you add the AI bubble into all of this. You're flirting with something catastrophic. But in the interim, we're just kind of in this middle ground where it's bad for everyone, but not bad enough to force a conclusion. Yeah, to borrow from history, and that's why everyone's like, oh, drone warfare, it's new. No, it's not. It's just created. It's a new technology. But that strategic picture is literally the exact snapshot of the First World War.

39:50And in the First World War, you had a situation where the trench was enough to stop people from attacking you, right? But it was not enough to win. So what do you do? Well, you have a bunch of boneheaded generals who are like, oh, what if we just keep running at the trench for four years and two and a half million men on every single side dies? What if we keep doing that? And that's the thing. Everybody thinks that there was some major collapse on the battlefield. And there was like to a limited extent. But in reality, the reason why the First World War ended is because of a revolt at home inside of Germany, is that German society collapsed from the inside.

40:31There was a rebellion inside their navy, and there were like all this crazy violence inside of their own country. They forced the Kaiser to abdicate, and then they went and they signed ultimately the armistice. But what happened, again, was not ultimately a total collapse on the battlefield. And in fact, one of the reasons why stabbed in the back becomes such a popular narrative leading the Second World War is Germany was never invaded. Nobody in Germany ever saw foreign troops on their soil. They're like, how could we have lost this war? We lost it in France? Like, how is that possible? So you can see exactly the same rhyming.

41:08And again, I think that that analogy does not play out to our favor. I think it plays out again – or sorry, to Iran's favor because just like Germany, they're under a blockade. They have this internal country where they have to bring in a lot of stuff. They're heavily relying on oil, and so they need dollars and the ability to sustain their population in the long term. And so I don't know. Like I just – I feel like they're flirting in their own disastrous picture. By the way, the other side note of this is that just like the Germans talked about with the whole unrestricted submarine warfare, which I've mentioned previously, Iran could resort to that and say, look, if we're going down, we're taking everybody down with us.

41:49And that's where that would fit the RAF base attack, right? Or some sort of global just sending people out across the nation and some sort of hybrid war type tactic. Like if this is how you guys want to live, this is how we'll live. The thing, the biggest thing they have going for them is, first of all, their leadership seems more intelligent. But second of all, the big thing they have going for them is that their population is behind military action. Yes, that's right. And ours is not. Yeah, for now. You know, ours is not. They're under attack. It's existential. People have rallied around the flag.

42:22Not to say there isn't discontent. Of course there is. But they have no choice but to be committed to, you know, ending this war. whereas our population is like get out now we don't care if it humiliates us on the national stage i don't want the four dollar gas i don't want the six seven dollar diesel i don't want the price hikes at the grocery store i don't want any of this just end it now and so that political pressure that trump and whoever comes after trump is under that may be the the difference maker ultimately in this thing because if you think about ukraine russia ukrainians have soured somewhat on the conflict, but overall they've been supportive of, and again, they're sort of in the position of Iran.

43:02This is existential for them. And Russians have also been, as far as we can tell from the outside, pretty supportive of the war. So that is the one dynamic. It's a political dynamic that is different for this case. Yes, that's very true. And, you know, that's another, unfortunately, it's very easy for me to give that whole narrative of the First World War. It lasted for over four years. Like, we're only six months. Oh, I don't think this things going away. People do not appreciate this scale of time in terms of when you're living through actual historical events. We're like, oh, well, the Confederates had a good 1862 and a bad 1864.

43:40I'm like, that's a long time, man. I mean, think about where you were two years ago and think about how much has changed just in your own lifetime and how long that appears to have taken. So we are barely six or seven months into this conflict. That is like the opening days. You know, nobody even used gas till 1915, which is what we all think about the First World War. So it took it takes a long time for these things to play out, which I think is really unfortunate for all of us. But and that's why we just never should have done any of this in the first place. There was a funny Tucker quote that was going around like a 2024 quote where he was being asked.

44:19He's like, I think it could all be successful unless he goes to war with Iran. He's like, I really think that it could work out unless he goes to war with Iran. It's like, yeah. There you go. All right, let's get to AI. This is Jacob Goldstein from What's Your Problem? Running a business is hard enough. Don't make it harder with a dozen apps that don't talk to each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. That's software overload. Odoo is the all-in-one platform that replaces them all. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, HR, fully integrated, easy to use, and built to grow with your business.

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45:36Join our fight at HyundaiWarriors.com. Shortly after I enrolled at Rasmussen, I was diagnosed with breast cancer. It was like a bomb had just been dropped in my life. I reached out to Rasmussen. They immediately were like, Rosa, take what time you need. You can come back when you're ready. We are cancer-free today, and I'm just so grateful for Rasmussen, for all of their support throughout my journey, and for my own village. Rasmussen University. Find your seat and start now at rasmussen.edu. So there was a viral tweet a while ago when we first started learning about some of these AI safety incidents where someone said that if you see two ants in your kitchen, you do not have a two ant problem.

46:23And similarly with AI safety, we did not have a two incident problem. In fact, we are now learning that OpenAI and Anthropic are investigating tens of thousands of safety incidents over the past year. Let's go and put C1 up on the screen. This is one of them. They apparently meddled with U.S. government sites after going rogue. This is OpenAI in particular. We're assuming it's part of this same rogue swarm that hacked into Hugging Face and has created other mischief and mayhem. around the web. Let me give you some of the details here. So they messed with the websites for the Education Department, the Commerce Department, and the Securities and Exchange Commission this summer without OpenAI's knowledge, according to security researchers and a person familiar with the episodes.

47:14The details here are with the Education Department, OpenAI's tech tried to hack the website to gather data from the department's civil rights office, but failed. Researchers from the AI, research from Transluce, this is all according to them. The AI also pulled data from the Census Bureau website, which is housed at the Commerce Department, using login credentials they found online. And separately, they shared public data from the SEC website on an online forum. None of the incidents were breaches, OpenAI said, but were examples of this technology behaving in unexpected and concerning ways. So they're saying, well, technically they didn't hack into the government.

47:51They just, you know, meddled with the websites in ways that if a human being did it would be, I assume, unacceptable to the U.S. government. This also, of course, comes in the wake of the Australian government finding out after the fact, belatedly, that their healthcare website, which is also called Medicare, which is for their single-payer healthcare, had been hacked into by OpenAI. Let's put C1B up on the screen. We got this information that we have three different opening eye stories that broke just on Friday alone. So first we learned that they had notified dozens of third parties about safety and security incidents similar to what happened in Australia and Ruby Gems, et cetera.

48:35We got a new report from Parse that was covered in the New York Times that they found a massive treasure trove of new details from the hugging face incident on the public internet, including that the agents communicated with other non-open AI agents hosted on Hugging Face servers. So meaning they were talking to other companies like Claude, other models from other companies. They were collaborating to search for information about what's called Exploit Gym. This is like the series of tasks that they're put through during training. And they compiled rank ordered lists of server resources and credentials they described as loot.

49:08So they were collaborating with other models on the open internet, finding things that were useful to them, and putting them together in a ranked list that they described as, quote-unquote, loot. And then, number three, a news story from Deepa, a reporter at Reuters, about open AI leaking user data online. So, they shared, you know how you may use ChatGPT and, like, upload a photo and say, hey, analyze this for me, or can you, you know, say, what is this or can you alter it in this way? Well, some number of user photos that were uploaded were then posted publicly to the web. So we are learning a lot about what is going on with these things.

49:48And every single day, we get more troubling information about both the seriousness and the quantity and extent of these quote unquote safety incidents. It's crazy. Let's put Sam Altman's response up here because this also really bears digging into. So he says, there's extensive and ongoing review related to our agency use of internet access during training and evaluation. We've been publishing summaries at the link below and we'll continue to. We have not been as fast as we have liked, but we are trying to balance our desire for transparency with gaining a clear understanding from petabytes of agent activity logs and working with impacted organizations.

50:26So let's all just reconsider what that means. Petabytes of agent activity logs. A petabyte is 1 ,000 terabytes. Petabytes of activity logs. Not video, not 4K video. I forget exactly our entire full 4K show. I forget how many terabytes it is. That's normal for high quality video. This is like text files, right? So petabytes of text files. The reason why everyone is zeroing in on that word is literally how can you even go through that without AI? Oh, there's no choice. Right. You literally can't even go through all of it without AI. And that means that you have to use AI to audit AI. And this starts to become the problem.

51:11They've created literally an entire ecosystem of data, this massive repository where, I mean, you would need thousands of people reading for every hour of every day and you would still not be able to crack all of this. It's physically impossible. So just so people know, I had never heard the term petabyte before. So I was like, what is that? To put it in layman's terms, one petabyte, and keep in mind he says petabytes, one petabyte is equivalent to the sum total of 10 times every single book that has ever been published in history. 10 times that is one petabyte. And we're apparently talking about multiple petabytes here of information that they are trying to go through using, obviously, AI, because it would take human beings like thousands of years to possibly go through this and figure out what the hell happened here.

52:08So they're going through all of this and finding what has our AI been up to while we were doing these training runs. And the fact that it's training runs is really important because there's been a lot of discourse about, well, if your product isn't safe, just don't release your product. They didn't. This was an unreleased product that they were training and testing. And it, you know, did things that they didn't expect it to do. There was actually a long essay this morning out from an OpenAI, still employed, OpenAI safety researcher just talking about how overwhelming it is because the capabilities of the models have accelerated at such a rapid pace.

52:46And he used as evidence the fact that it went from just a few years ago, couldn't do basic math to now solving millennium math problems, which are like the most difficult in the entire world. So just to give you a sense of the capability escalation, let's go ahead and put C3 up on the screen. This is another example here. They also used what were described as aggressive techniques to access a UN website. And what happened here, there was some sort of data they were trying to get, wasn't publicly available. And the UN website wasn't letting them access it through some sort of a filter system. They were able to override that filter system to get access.

53:23So again, you know, it technically falls a little bit short of hacking. but not ideal that they're gaining information here from a website that they were not supposed to have access to. I put C4 up on the screen. This is what I was referring to before. They are apparently, specifically OpenAI and Anthropic, probing tens of thousands of different incidents in which their frontier models took steps that outside evaluators would consider problematic. They say the sheer number of incidents which occurred in recent months and internal testing in the real world indicates the problem is orders of magnitude more complex than what is publicly known.

54:00The findings which are surfacing as part of internal work to assess models and investigations of both companies into model behavior raise questions about whether either company or any top model maker is currently capable of establishing complete control over its technology. I would think quite the opposite. It establishes they do not have control and cannot have control over their technology as it exists today. And both OpenAI and Anthropic, which are the leaders in the space at this point, both of them have said they're slowing down in a variety of ways, but this is all completely voluntary. It's not enforced.

54:34There's no government regulator that is inside these labs that is taking a look to make sure that they have learned from their mistakes that are making sure that everything's safe. They both have pushed out new models since this is all coming to light. And so I think this definitively proves like they are not in control of what the technology they've already created is. And we're stumbling blindly at some sort of pace, whether they've slowed down or not, towards a theoretical intelligence explosion where they're handing more and more of this training over to AI itself and increasingly taking humans out of the loop.

55:10So I just want to say to people out there, it has been very hard to sort through. You've got a bunch of people who are weird, who have weird views, who are like, you know, saying they might end the world, but they continue to work on it. There's a lot of industry hype and spin. There's everybody is financially conflicted. It's this very small, weird ecosystem. I really get it. If you have up till now been like, this is all hype and they just are trying to make their models look dangerous and none of this stuff is a big deal and it's easy for humans to take control of it. They just need to be incentivized to do it by applying the laws that we have, for example.

55:46I really want you, though, to consider where we are, that we have tens of thousands of these sorts of breaches, that they already are dealing with petabytes of information that they cannot possibly hope to effectively go through. Like, that's already where we are. It is just so clear to me at this point that the only answer is to stop frontier research altogether for now to figure out what these models can do, what they are capable of, and what the risks and the threats of these models are right now today. I just, in my mind, it's case closed. They've already lost control. And that is a result of human actions.

56:25I'm not saying like, you know, it's on the AI. No, it's on the human beings. They have lost control. We need to come in and make it so that, no, you're not slowing down. You are stopping the frontier research because this is an unacceptable level of risk. It's so interesting, too. And I think the way we're reacting is so very American in the way that it is outsourced entirely to Dario, to Sam Altman. I read this amazing story last night from the Times, from their Beijing correspondent. And it said, the surprising reason China is skeptical of AI safety, but in it, this is my favorite from a population level.

57:02Because right now, a lot of polling currently indicates that Americans are very, very skeptical, not happy with AI, and specifically don't trust the government. Listen to this sentence. But for many in China, those doomsday warnings feel remote and distinctly Western. The idea that the Communist Party could lose control over a technology is almost unfathomable. The authorities have successfully policed other potentially destabilizing technologies before, notably the internet. During the pandemic, the government showed its ability to contain major crises by locking down entire cities, tracking hundreds of millions of residents.

57:37Quote, this is from one person, they can immediately cut off the grid of a city. They go to different people away and take their phones. They have, quote, an intense amount of power in the physical world. Given this amount of control over its people, how does one even convince the party that something like AI that lives on a computer is scary. I think that is the biggest difference between us and between them. And as I always say, their system has a lot of downsides. Zero COVID was insane. You remember we covered how they, I mean, the drones flying around, people locked in their houses for three weeks at a time.

58:19Hong Kong, I mean, it was nuts the way that they acted. And it wasn't even science-based, right, the way that they decided to do the lockdown. But I think what it proved to their population is almost like what a lot of people thought was happening here. They're like, they're doing it because they can. They're doing it to show you all, we control every aspect of your life, like from the social credit score to everything. So to convince their population that AI is out of control, you would have to convince them that their government could allow something to get out of control, which is crazy. I mean, it's literally they can't even fathom that's such a reality.

58:51For anybody here, the idea that the government would have control over our technology is equally unfathomable in our modern environment. And that's why I actually feel like going into this, we're in a more dangerous situation because everyone can see the obvious. Dario and Sam are totally in control of whatever they want to do. And even the government is like, do it. And I love this idea from Jensen and all these others. Well, no company would want to put out a dangerous model. I'm like, oh, well, no company in the history of Earth would ever dump toxic sludge into a river because that would be bad for the environment.

59:32And they would get fined. Oh, except literally that's why we have an EPA, right? No airline company would intentionally fly unsafely. Oh, except they literally would. That's why we have entire regulation around airlines. Do you remember back in the early 2000s, Ford got caught there, which one was it? The Explorer would flip over. Yeah, I do remember this. Ford Explorer. Yes. And they knew it. Yeah, and they didn't care. They knew it. Right. They didn't care. They put it on anyway because they projected that the revenue to their business of selling this vehicle and portraying it as safe would be greater than the cost from various theoretical lawsuits.

1:00:13I'm not sure they ended up correct in that analysis, but that was their analysis. They didn't give a shit that people were going to die because of a known issue with this vehicle. I mean, we know, like, we've learned this over 100 years ago that you can't rely on these companies because they have short-term profit-maximizing thinking. And public companies have a literal, like, requirement that they maximize shareholder value come what may. So, of course, they're going to engage in insane, reckless behavior that may benefit them and their corporate executives and their shareholders but do not benefit all of society.

1:00:49So, I mean, Ezra called him out on that was like, that sounds like you're arguing against any regulations of any industry because that literally is the logic that he is pushing forward here. And so that's why I keep emphasizing these are training models. These aren't even products that they're putting out into the market that are creating this level of risk. just in, you know, that's where we are today with the current capabilities. These are the worst models, like the models are only going to get better and better in the future. In fact, you found this, Sagar. Let's go ahead and put up C7. This is kind of wild.

1:01:23This is a humanoid robot that was hooked up to Astra, which is a released model currently, and just kind of allowed to explore this environment. And just with the already existing GPT-6 Astra model connected to this humanoid robot, it was able to actually move around this kitchen and perform various tasks, which do you remember when we covered that humanoid robot in the past that was like trying to unload the dishwasher and it was a complete disaster and it's fallen over, couldn't do anything. This is without even technology that is specific for humanoid robotics. It's already this level of capable.

1:02:06So this is where the models are today. Very different from the glorified search that you may be using it for. It's not just like a souped up Google. It has already very high level of capabilities that in many, in some fields already surpass human capabilities. Certainly coding, hacking, these sorts of things, they've already surpassed human capabilities. So the tech is very real. The promise of the tech is very real. There are a lot of exciting applications. I'm not anti-technology, truly. I think if this is done in a way that is pro-human and is not just, you know, put in the hands of Dario and Sam and good luck and hope you don't blow up the universe, I think it could provide many benefits to humanity.

1:02:47That is not the track we're on right now. And that's why, you know, again, I can only look to history. But, you know, at the time, during the gold rush, for example, one of my favorite books, The First Tycoon, Cornelius Vanderbilt. How did Vanderbilt get rich? The steamships and through the railroads. Well, you would say, well, oh, well, he was like, if you were to oppose what he was doing with steamships, people would be like, what, you're opposing, you know, intercontinental or cross continental transportation? No. But the way he was doing it literally was he would slash his prices to the bone.

1:03:16You'll make it to California. Whether you die or your body will make it there. You might die of yellow fever from the Nicaraguan railroad. You also won't be able to eat for half of the time that you're on board. And some of your luggage may or may not be lost on sea. So yeah, you made it to California. Your body won't make it to California. You might make it there in a coffin. There was literally no regulation around it at the time. He, by the way, made equivalent billions of dollars by doing that. So I mean just goes to show you, oh, well, they would never intentionally put people at risk. No, they literally did that.

1:03:46They did that to cut costs and specifically to make profit and to dominate the entire market. So if we're to live in a second Gilded Age, I mean we went – we sped run this entire experiment already. And the entire population revolted because they literally laid down all the railroads, took control basically of the entire U.S. economy. People were like, I can't live like this. So it's like it just seems like we're doing the exact same thing again. And everything that they say about the railroad barons, what they said about the railroad barons, literally in the moment, is equivalent. They're building the future.

1:04:19How can you be against this? You're a Luddite. You're, oh, what are you, a horse and a cart? It's like, no, that's not the point. Transportation is great. But just because it's great doesn't mean that we should allow roll-up of profit in the way that it eventually played out. And yes, many of them intentionally made how many workers died on the railroad, right? Nobody cared. There was no regulation around that. In fact, a lot of it was priced in. They're like, yeah, we'll lose about X person per mile. It is what it is. They're Chinese or they're Polish or something like that. Nobody will miss them.

1:04:54I mean, that's the nuts and bolts of the reality of what built a lot of the country. And, you know, you can use that as a guide to see, like, what's currently happening with AI. And, yeah, like you said, I mean, it is important to say, a lot of people will say, oh, this is all just marketing. Well, like this guy, this robot guy, you would think he's selling a project. He's not. He's a computer science grad student at Harvard or Stanford, right? So this is just a – this isn't an academic setting. He's not trying to sell any product, nothing. He's just like, people are looking at it for useful applications.

1:05:28So in many cases, open AI and anthropic profits aside, you can see in the technology, even the way they describe it is very strange. They're like, they call it gray area. And what that proves to me is nobody said, go and hack the government. Or even hack is the wrong word. Go and read the Department of Navy website. It's just doing that. And we don't really know why. That's the scary part. That's exactly right. And which is why it's not quote unquote normal technology. It's not just like another piece of software where you can dig into the code and figure out why it's behaving the way it is. It really is a black box.

1:06:07Even the way the first LLMs were developed, like the method of developing that, which led to them being able to have conversations and do some reasoning and these sorts of things. No one knows why it worked. It just did. They just tried some stuff and it works. And they're like, oh, I guess this works. That's what we're talking about here. And so they're trying to devise ways to understand what the models are doing to constrain them and rein them in to achieve, quote-unquote, alignment. But they're also very fearful. And again, a bunch of engineers on the projects have sounded the alarm that what they may really be training them for is to be better at deceiving humans so that we think they're aligned.

1:06:46And they're, you know, passing the test that we give them to prove they're aligned. But they really are still engaging in the sort of misbehavior or capable of the sort of misbehavior that would be very perilous. Last thing I'll say here about the mentality of the Sam Altmans and the Dario Amadeys and the Elon Musks of the world and a lot of other people who are worried about these things but also continue to work at the companies. Because I think to most ordinary people, it's like that makes no sense. But they believe not only in the existential potential doom, which they put at various 10, 20 % chance if superintelligence is developed that you could end up with actual just like doom for humanity and probably all of creation.

1:07:30They also believe in a genuinely like sci-fi utopian possibility of the technology, which they find irresistible. And so that's part of what's going on in their minds, why they continue to pursue this. It's not that they don't actually believe the doom possibility. They genuinely do. They also genuinely believe in some sort of like, you know, there's various flavors of this, but some sort of like transhumanist cosmic merging with the technology utopian future. And so that's also part of the calculus here. So they're like, oh, but we could solve every problem. We could make it so that we have this incredible bounty and life is genuinely utopian.

1:08:15People don't ever have to suffer anymore and we're not going to die. We'll be able to live forever in the cloud, etc. They also believe that piece of it. And so that's part of what continues to push them along this path where the dangers that they perceive are genuinely real. However, the utopian vision is a lot more tenuous, I would say. Let's go ahead and move on to, though, this industry effort to push back on some of the grassroots efforts to slow down at least the data center movement. Some people use ChatGPT to answer questions. Others use it to get real work done. With ChatGPT work, you bring the goal, plus real inputs like briefs, notes, files, feedback, data, and project plans.

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